Otsego Insider

Astrapios begins to build legacy

2012-01-24T10:34:00.000-05:00

It was just an allowance race at Shenandoah Downs, but 2yo colt Astrapios made a strong statement last weekend with a solid 2nd place finish at 16F.

"We paid big money for this fella based on his physical tools. Frankly, we're relieved that he showed us that our confidence was not misplaced", Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber stated after the race. Webber paused, then continued, "Relieved, but not surprised."

Astrapios finished 5 lengths behind filly phenom Cynic (Spartan Racing Stables), who now has a perfect record with three wins in three starts.

When asked if he envisioned Cynic being a roadblock on Astrapios' path to success, Webber said, "No. She's a great filly, but I don't see her as a 16F horse down the road. I think she'll settle in at 10-12F. In the long-run, Astrapios will have her number at 2 miles."

He continued, "Machete's offspring are notorious for their quick maturation. She's ahead of Astrapios physically at the moment. It'll be a completely different story next season."

Crop Circles, Bigfoot, the Bermuda Triangle, and Quake.

2012-01-17T10:50:00.002-05:00

Mysteries. Unexplained phenomenon.

Does the Loch Ness Monster really exist? Can anyone explain the composition of Dark Matter? And most perplexingly, why does KRF keep running the 4yo filly Quake at 16 furlongs?

Admittedly, Quake got her career off to a bang when she finished 4th at 16F in her debut. Thus encouraged, KRF entered her in two more 2-mile races and Quake rattled off back-to-back wins, with impressive times of 3:20 and 3:19, no less.

Since then, Quake has come to earth. She's had five more races, all at 16F, and finished 8,5,3,3,8. To make matters worse, her times have regressed. Quake has been unable to recapture her early magic, making me wonder why KRF insists on running her exclusively at 16F.

The simple truth is... this filly simply isn't a 16F horse.

Look at her running style. I've watched several of her races and it's always the same. She breaks well, takes an early lead, fades in the last 4-5 furlongs. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

Her HRF fantasy numbers don't support the theory that she is a stayer either. Yes, she has an above-average Kick rating of 992, but her Stamina rating of 70 screams 9-11 furlongs. She's got good speed, much better than most long distance horses. Combine that with her front-running tendancies and you might even have some success at 8F.

I tried to make an offer on Quake a while ago, but never received a reply from Karie. I even approached Ryan, trying to make an end run into KRF. He said she'd never sell, so I quit trying.

It kills me to see this horse languish at 16F against the likes of Refractor, Pluto, Alphabet, and all the other real stayers. She simply cannot beat the top tier horses at 2 miles. Not gonna happen. Ever.

My advice? In this order...

Sell her to me, or
Run her at 8-11 furlongs, or
If she must be run at 16F, do it in Stakes races.

Horses at the crossroads...

2012-01-12T20:19:00.001-05:00

As year-end beckons, the urge to clear out the stable becomes stronger and stronger. There are a couple racers in particular who are very close to being sold...

3yo colt Schoolboy Heart was a impulse buy from Sunshine Stables a few months ago. He has some decent tools, and is a later maturing type, so I thought he might be worth a chance. His PSR's have been climbing in the last four races, 36, 71, 78, 89; but I'm thinking that he may have very limited potential. Perhaps that stall would be more valuable if it was vacant?

3yo colt Art of Seduction was purchased last year as a long-term prospect. His AR says sprinter, but his low speed / high stamina ratings scream stayer. He has generally been more productive at longer distances, but he's not showing enough to keep me interested in this experiment.

Both of these colts are racing this weekend and their performances will dictate whether they are on the sales board or not by Sunday afternoon.

Additionally, I am contemplating making some kind of change with my broodmares. I'd like to introduce some new blood, but it will require moving a mare or two to accommodate the prospective newcomers. I've got Nebula joining the ranks at the end of the season, giving me 10 broodmares, which is exactly where I want to be numerically.

False Demon, Second Strike, and Shattered Record are mares that could potentially be sold or traded. FD and SS were both acquired specifically to breed with stable icon War Machine, but the results have been less than expected so far.

I have scoured the available mares at Endless Vista, and I can only say that the pickings are mighty slim. Prices on mares have gone through the roof in the past couple years, so a straight-up purchase may be out of the question as well. A broodmare trade may be a possibility. If anyone has any suggestions or offers, I'm willing to listen.

Inconceivable!

2011-12-23T11:01:00.002-05:00

Is it possible that Otsego Farms could consider selling stable icon Nightwing?

It has been discussed recently at the highest levels because there just isn't enough room for five stallions, and that's the road I'm heading down.

Currently we have three excellent distance stallions; Nightwing 14, War Machine 12, and Union Jack 10. Additionally, we have two current racers who beg to stay on after they retire; Refractor, and Methy Bus.

Refractor is a no-brainer as a stallion prospect. He has shown world-class ability at 16F, stringing together an eye-popping list of times and PSR's. He may be the best 16F horse that Photo-Finish has seen. His unique abilities guarantee him a spot as a stallion at Otsego Farms.

Methy Bus was not originally in my plans as a breeder. His continued excellence however, has caught my attention. He has exceeded 100 PSR in 15 of 21 career races and has proven to be a GR1 threat at distances from 8F to 12F. His ability, consistancy and potential length of career make him a prime stallion prospect. This sets up a dilemma for Otsego Farms.

As stated above, I am not inclined to keep five stallions. My stable stall limit of 60 is inviolate and the plan calls for three stallions. Four would be a stretch, which would cause an annual alteration of my plan, but would be workable. Five is out of the question.

Given my current inclination to keep Refractor and Methy Bus after they retire, something has to give, and that something may be Nightwing's spot as an Otsego stallion.

It would be a very tough business decision, since Nightwing was the cornerstone that built Otsego Farms. In my first year of operation, he earned $3.6M, putting me on the map and giving me instant success. It would be very hard to reward Nightwing's contribution with a ticket out of town, especially since my longtime goal was to keep him forever.

However, the ultimate decision will be put off for at least one more season. Both Refractor and Methy Bus will race at least one more year. In fact, Methy Bus, with his long career peak may race two or three more seasons.

I'm thinking about it now though, and it's not pleasant to contemplate my stable without Nightwing...

Ummm.... Okay, you talked me into it.

2011-11-17T14:37:00.001-05:00

He may not have a lot of gas left in the tank. In fact, this will probably be his last year as a racer. But I just couldn't resist Ettore Fieramosca at such a bargain price.

This horse set a World Record and has won almost $70,000 in his last three races; and I get him for a measly $1000? Jeez, I bought a pair of alligator-skin boots last week that cost more than that!

He has a career record of 31-8-9-3 with earnings of $1,533,200 and I'll wager that he still has enough speed left in him to win a few bucks.

Refractor to Gold Cup on short rest?

2011-11-14T09:52:00.000-05:00

On the heels of his easy victory at the GR2 Perth Cup, the connections at Otsego Farms are seriously considering sending Refractor to the GR1 Gold Cup on just 17 days rest.

There is precedent for this quick back up. In 2006, Otsego Farms sent Nightwing to both races. He finished 2nd in the Perth Cup behind the legendary 2-miler Promised Land, then got his revenge by beating her to win the Gold Cup two weeks later.

"The thought has crossed my mind," Otsego owner Jim Webber quipped when asked if he would enter Refractor for the race on June 16th. "He was fairly fresh after the easy win on the 31st, so I am definitely giving it some thought."

Top prospects for 2016

2011-11-08T20:36:00.002-05:00

One the whole, it looks like the crop of racers coming up in 2017 will be a superior batch, but we have a few racers that are currently in training for 2016 that should make some waves. Listed below are the top four 2yo prospects for next season.

French Twist (colt) - Deux Francais x Nova

Trainers insist he will be a distance horse, but parentage suggests otherwise. He's showing great speed to go along with above-average stamina, which makes me think he'll me a miler-type who won't let up. Looks like a stalker and he's good on dirt or turf. A big, strong fellow who should top out at 17.3 hands when fully mature.

Vinyasa (colt) - Union Jack x Arctic Fox

What he lacks in speed, he makes up with courage and gut-wrenching stamina. He's strictly a turfer, which is good given the plenitude of distance races on grass. He is also very large and muscular, projecting at 17.3 hands fully grown. He's a 16F horse if there ever was one.

Zombieslayer (colt) - War Machine x Affirm Gal

He's a compact racer, but full of heart. Equally comfortable on grass or dirt and has the stamina for classic distances. A propensity for come-from-behind theatrics makes his races edge-of-the-seat affairs. Looks quite a bit like the old man, even as far as height and weight are concerned.

Brick House (filly) - Machete x Domino

A charmer who is very popular in the stable. Working very well out of the gates and has good speed. She looks like a sprinting prospect who'll work primarily on dirt with maybe an occasional foray on turf. We're very high on this filly, and her progress and potential is the main reason dam Domino will stay on as an Otsego Farms broodmare.

Looks like I made the news again!

2011-11-05T11:31:00.000-05:00

Otsego welcomes Astrapios

2011-11-03T14:46:00.001-05:00

Graphic courtesy of Circle F Farms

At the podium for his weekly press conference, eyes blinking as the camera's flashed incessantly, Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber cleared his throat and answered the question that had been shouted out by more than a dozen reporters; "Yes, we have acquired the 2yo colt Astrapios from Circle F for $1.75 million."

In a groundbreaking transaction that saw the normally tight-fisted owner fling open the vault, Otsego Farms picked up the stayer prospect for a sum normally reserved only for well established racers.

"The connections at Circle F were initially reluctant to part with Astrapios. Eventually, I had to meet with Tia (Circle F owner Tia Francisco) herself to hammer out the deal", an amimated Webber continued. There were some other considerations in addition to the cash, but nothing unusual."

The training staff at Otsego Farms envisions Astrapios as a 12-16F racer, which is why he was coveted so much. "I have a fondness for stayers, that's no secret. This is a gamble, but I feel that Astrapios has unlimited potential", Webber said as he left the podium.

A busy five minutes in the office of Jim Webber

2011-11-02T14:38:00.001-05:00

Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber is sitting at his desk going over potential pairings for the next breeding season...

JW (thinking to himself): I think I'd like Union Jack and Shattered Record together again. You Know My Name has worked out pretty well so far...

Secretary (on intercom): Mr. Webber? You have a call on line one.

JW: Who is it Celeste?

Secretary: It's Amanda. She wants you to come to London next week.

JW: Thanks. (picks up call) Mandy? How are you?

A: Just smashing Jim. Thanks for taking my call.

JW: No problem. What can I do for you?

A: Any chance you can pop over to Bally Doyle next week?

JW: Business or pleasure?

A: Business of course!

JW: I'd love to Amanda but I'm going to be in Dubai all next week.

A: Dubai? This time of year? Whatever for?

JW: Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum has asked me to be his child's Godfather.

A: Really? Does the Muslim faith allow for that?

JW: I think they are making a special allowance in my case.

A: Well, tell the Sheik I said hello. I met him at the UAE Derby a couple years ago.

JW: Will do. Listen Amanda, I'm sorry to cut you off, but I really have to run.

A: OK. Give me a ring when you get back.

JW: I will. Cya!

A: Toodles!

JW (into intercom): Celeste? Can you hold my calls for the next hour or so?

Secretary: Sure, except you've got an urgent call on line two right now. He's been holding.

JW: Who?

Secretary: It's Ryan Okerstom of Spartan.

JW (as he pushes the button for line 2): Dammit! What in the Hell does that.... Ryan! Buddy! What's up?

R: I just wanted to know if you're going to the Belmont this year?

JW: I sure am. I might even drop in Azrael as a late entry, but either way I'll be there.

R: Sweet! We've shipped Theorist already. Umm.... how are you getting there.

JW: The jet. How else? Ahhh... you're looking for a lift huh?

R: You're a mindreader bud.

JW: Yeah right. OK no problemo, I can pick you and Karie up at Metro Airport easily enough. Can I transfer you to my secretary to make the arrangements? I'm kinda busy at the moment.

R: Sure. Thanks alot Jim. We'll see you in a couple weeks.

JW: Allrighty. See ya Ryan. Hang on a sec... (transfers call back to Celeste) Celeste? Can you figure out the logistics of picking up Ryan at Metro when I fly to the Belmont? He's still on the line. Thanks.

JW (thinking to himself again): Jeez. Where was I? Oh yeah, Union Jack and Shattered Record. All I need to do now is find a stud for Domino and I'll be all set...

Otsego Farms - Home of Worthless Horses?

2011-10-31T20:10:00.000-05:00

Captain Britain - Worthless?

I've tried to sell two horses in the past week and have had zero success. Even extracting a bid from the Photo-Finish populace has proven elusive in the case of these two horses.

Captain Britain is a lightly raced 3yo, sired by Union Jack, and yet could garner only a single bid; and just $1000 to boot. He has not burned up the tracks yet, but has had some success and currently sports a 7-1-0-2 record with earnings of $92,500. This seems like a horse that would attract some attention, especially given how Union Jack has become a very desirable stud. After getting just the one bid, I decided to keep him.

A nice young broodmare was also up for sale. 6yo Domino who is by War Machine out of Sharp Cat, received just one bid for $1000. With a decent track record and superlative breeding, I thought this mare would certainly be worth the $50,000 reserve. I've seen some mares used in breeding that are clearly inferior to Domino and yet, no one saw fit to pick this girl up.

Perhaps I am overstating Domino's value. There are dozens of mares that retire every year, many of them becoming broodmares. So, because there is such a ready supply available, any mare who was not a superstar is commonplace and valueless.

However Domino has a unique set of traits that lead me to believe she may in fact be a valuable commodity. She is very strong on dirt surfaces, 5-5-5. With a 92 top speed she is capable of producing sprinters and with a 69 stamina she is also capable of producing miler-to-classic racers. I like her versatility and since I no longer have an issue with stalls for breeders, I'm gonna keep her.

Highs and Lows in Weeks 19-20

2011-10-30T10:24:00.000-05:00

Results caused a full spectrum of emotions this weekend; from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows.

DISAPPOINTING:

Crossbones was injured right out of the gate and was 15 lengths back in the blink of an eye. On pure guts, he rallied late, but still finished 7th and well out of the money. We are awaiting work from our Vets as to the severity of the injury.

Warp Factor Ten had stable hope running high with a Win and a Place in his first two races. A 9th place finish this weekend though was like getting a bucket of ice water dumped on our heads. With just under a month of rest, he looked sluggish right from the start. He'll get at least 6 weeks off before his next race.

ACCEPTABLE:

Captain Britain was a hair's width from being sold a couple weeks ago. He gave himself some breathing room with a gutsy 3rd place finish.

Mocha Milkshake is still a baby at heart. He won't be mature for another year at least. However, we couldn't pass on the opportunity to give him some experience in a miniscule 3-horse field. Predictably, he finished 3rd, but didn't look out of place in the race.

Xtra Run is fast. I'm still trying to figure out what her maximum distance may be. Obviously 8F is a bit too far. Her gate speed is improving a little bit, so I feel confident shortening her races to 6-7 furlongs. I think she'll win her next race.

EXCELLENT:

You Know My Name raced for the first time against colts this weekend and fared very well. She carried more weight than the winner, colt Zig Zag, but finished a strong 2nd in the Illinois Derby. This Union Jack filly now has a career record of 8-4-1-0.

Jack the Ripper had a smashing debut in the 7.5F Christmas Stakes. Going off as a prohibitive favorite at 1/2 odds, Rip ran away from the field, winning by 6 lengths.

A slight miscalculation...

2011-10-27T18:41:00.000-05:00

I don't really know what I was thinking.

I thought I had to choose between Nebula and Domino for my 10th and final broodmare spot. I chose Nebula, and put Domino up for sale. Looking at my stable today, I counted my broodmares over and over, and even with the introduction of Nebula next year, I'll have just nine. Hmmm. Now where did that 10th broodmare go?

Looks like I could have kept Domino after all.

But after thinking about it, I've decided to sell her anyway. I'm really looking for some fresh blood, and Domino herself being a product of War Machine, is anything but fresh blood.

She is currently listed on the sales page, but there is no guarantee she'll reach her reserve (she should, she's definitely worth a measly $50,000). If she comes back due to an insufficient bid, I'll find her a home somewhere.

Since I do need a 10th broodmare, I'll have to start beating the bushes for something suitable.

Broodmare for sale

2011-10-23T15:23:00.000-05:00

Domino, the 6yo chestnut mare by War Machine out of Sharp Cat is available on the sales page. She had a racing record of 24-3-5-6 with career earnings of $202,025.

Her AR looks like this:

Domino (2009), 15.3 hand chestnut filly

By War Machine out of Sharp Cat by Storm Cat

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.

This horse prefers hard dirt.

This horse prefers soft dirt.

This horse prefers mud.

This horse is ok on hard turf.

This horse is ok on soft turf.

This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.

This horse has average ratability.

This horse appears to be a sprinter.

Even though her AR stipulates sprinter, she may have the ability to produce milers, or even classic type racers because her stamina rating throughout her career was 69 .

I bred her to Machete and Yeager the past two seasons and got a couple very nice looking fillies. Those AR's are available upon request.

Chance meeting. Part Two.

2011-10-22T15:00:00.003-05:00

"Mike, you gotta get back into the horse racing business."

Mike took a sip of beer and gazed out at the field. "Nah, It's not gonna happen."

"I know you're doing consulting work for Sunshine Stables and that keeps you involved, but it's not the same as running your own stable Mike."

"I'm happy with the way things are now. If Holli needs help, I give her a hand. I don't need to be more involved than that."

Our conversation ebbed and we watched infield practice for a few moments in silence. Voices were raised behind us, and I heard snippets of the conversation, which was concerning the best boxing knockouts of all time..

I turned in my chair and joined the conversation. "No offense Tommy. Your KO of Pipino Cuevas was a thing of beauty, but I think the Mike Weaver knockout of Big John Tate was the best."

Tom Selleck after swallowing shrimp.

"Obviously you haven't seen the Rocky Marciano knockout of Jersey Joe Walcott," Al Kaline chimed in, dismissing me with a wave of his hand. Selleck mumbled incoherently and nodded his head in agreement, unable to talk with his mouth full of shrimp cocktail.

"Hey Tom, the ocean called. They're running out of shrimp", Kid Rock shouted.

Amid laughter, the boxing conversation continued and I turned back to Mike. "I've got Mocha Milkshake going this weekend."

I bought this horse from Noble Farms for $200,000 a few seasons back. His price was so affordable due to the "matures very slowly" line on his AR.

"I saw that."

"He's still not mature, but I've waited long enough."

Smiling, "Yes, you have."

"So, I can't convince you to get back into horseracing?"

Smugly, "No, you can't."

I gotta decide between these two...

2011-10-20T15:55:00.004-05:00

Domino or Nebula? Which one shall I keep as a broodmare?

There is one stall to be had. It is currently occupied by Domino, but Nebula will be retiring after this season and if she stays on as a broodmare, it'll have to be at Domino's expense. It's shaping up to be a tough decision.

My initial gut reaction was to keep Nebula. She has had a better career and is capable of a little more distance. Decision made, right?

Wrong. There is something staying my hand and I can't explain what it is.

Here are their racing stats on the third race of their respective 3yo seasons:

Domino 77 89 92 69 460

Nebula 80 91 92 68 987

Nebula has a better gate speed, better early speed and a much better kick rating. In practice, she also had better performances at longer distances even though her stamina rating was lower. Their top speeds were equal. Overall. I'd give the nod to Nebula.

However, Nebula had a short performance peak, which she may pass along to her offspring. Domino had an average peak which is obviously preferable. In addition, Domino has thrown two really nice looking sprinters; fillies Brick House by Machete, and Tricky Woo by Yeager. Both have good acceleration and good speed in addition to great surface flexibility. I really like the look of these fillies so that is a point in Domino's favor.

With her great speed and high kick rating, I kinda feel that Nebula would produce superior foals. But since I'm very satisfied with Domino's offspring thus far, I'm afraid to let her go.

I'm in particular hurry to make a decision. It's just gotta be done before the end of the year. I'll keep thinking...

A chance meeting with an old friend. Part One.

2011-10-18T20:56:00.004-05:00

As I was stepping into my Luxury Suite at Comerica Park on October 13th, I could not help but notice a familiar figure walking along. A tall chap with very good posture. He had a slightly exaggerated swing of the right arm and a beer firmly clenched in his left hand. A wide smile erupted on my face as I spotted the Otsego Farms sweatshirt he was wearing.

I cupped my hands and called, "Hey Mike!" He spun on his heel. Any other man might have sloshed a bit of the brew, but not this fellow.

Recognition dawned on his face. "Weaver?"

I shook my head and smiled. That is Mike Noble's pet name for me. Webber... Weaver, It's a long story. Mike Noble is the former owner of Noble Farms, a short-lived but successful thoroughbred racing stable.

He dodged and weaved through the crowd and stopped in front of me. "Nice shirt," I said with another smile.

"This thing? I 'm just about ready to throw it in the rag bin. You here for the game?"

"No, I need the extra money so I'm here as a hot dog vender . Jeez, whatdya think, Mo?"

Chuckling, Mike looked up and down the corridor. "Where are you sitting?"

I jerked a thumb at the door to the Luxury Suite. "Right here. You wanna join me?"

"Nah, I've got some excellent seats myself."

I snatched the ticket stubs I saw peeking out of his front pocket. "Dude, these are bleacher tickets! C'mon, you can sit in the Suite with me. Who are you here with?"

"Just a few guys I know."

"Well they won't miss you for a few minutes. C'mon in."

Heads turned as we entered the Suite. I made some quick introductions. "Mike, I don't know if you ever met Al Kaline?" I continued, pointing around the room. "That's Steve Yzerman over there. That derelict at the bar is Kid Rock. The other guys are Tommy Hearns, Barry Sanders, and the tall fella is Tom Selleck."

After handshakes were exchanged and hello's spoken, Mike and I settled into a couple leather recliners. The panoramic view of Comerica Park was stretched before us. "Mike, you gotta get back into the horse racing business", I stated with no preamble.

Minor transactions

2011-10-15T19:03:00.000-05:00

Some recent comings and goings at Otsego Farms...

Newcomer Spy Vs Spy has already bought herself a ticket out of town. I was hoping she might be late to mature since she was sired by Memcay, but after seeing her AR, and testing her in a couple races, it was obvious that Endless Vista was where she belonged.

Captain Britain was recently put on the market with a modest reserve of $10,000. I felt that was a fair request for a 3yo colt sired by Union Jack who has a win in just 6 career races. Photo Finish owners thought otherwise as the Captain attracted just one bid. The $1000 offered by Josh Kayll isn't going to get the job done. Rather than negotiate, we'll just keep Captain Britain and see if he can make good in his second chance.

Coming in to Otsego Farms is the 3yo colt School Boy Heart. He is a sprinter/miler type who has pretty good speed, but is still immature. He is by Thief of Hearts; himself a late-maturing type. We feel that SBH can pay his way, perhaps a bit more, after he grows up a little. He sat out there on the sales page for a couple days without a bid, so we contacted our friends at Sunshine Stables and arranged a private purchase.

Refractor alters strategy, wins Melbourne Cup

2011-10-09T19:08:00.001-05:00

Foxie swoons as she realizes her $500,000 WIN bet on Alphabet isn't going to pay off.

With the jockey under strict orders to force the pace, Refractor did everything asked of him and responded with a big GR1 win at the Melbourne Cup.

Otsego owner Jim Webber was trackside and jubilant after the race. "We knew that Two Thousand would get a lot of attention. There were experts who picked him based on his class alone; they figured he could do anything. But with just a couple weeks rest and going at an unfamiliar distance, we knew he was ripe for the picking."

After a brief interruption to accept congratulations from Finlay LaFleur of FDL Lodge, Webber continued, "Normally Refractor will stay back and conserve energy for a late charge. However, this time we wanted to take the race right to Two Thousand, who's a notorious front-runner. We figured we we'd rip his balls right off and break his heart. Oh Jeez can I say that on TV?" After a brief apology Webber went on, "It worked, 'cause once we passed him, you could see the fire go out of his eyes."

"What I didn't expect though was Majestic Rooney being there at the end. I'm not gonna lie....I could tell that Refractor was gassed and I was concerned. That front-running strategy took something out of him. But he showed his tremendous heart at the end in winning that race after Rooney had the lead late."

Sunshine Stables 4yo Pluto finished 3rd, and up-and-coming stayer Alphabet from Foxies Lodge finished 4th. Also notable was the 5th place finish by 47-1 longshot Zagreb out of JD Kayll Race Club.

Connections at Otsego Farms are targeting the 16F Gold Cup for Refractors next race.

Undeniable urge to sell a horse... again.

2011-10-08T20:49:00.004-05:00

I have a fever. Just like producer Bruce Dickinson, (yes, the Bruce Dickinson) who said "Guess what? I got a fever. And the only prescription is more cowbell." Instead of cowbell, I have the fever to sell a horse.

Every once in a while, I get this itch. It's overpowering and unexplainable. I'm going through it right now. I've been scanning my roster on a daily basis, trying to find a sacrificial lamb to satisfy my primal urge to sell. In reality, I've got a couple underachievers who are starting to get under my skin.

Captain Britain isn't doing himself any favors by throwing out PSR's in the 75-85 range. He'll have his 6th start this weekend and he better improve.

Nebula has produced fairly well in her career at Otsego Farms. With a current record of 16-3-3-4 and steady PSR's in the 90's, you'd think she would be safe. But this will be her last year racing and I'm not sure that I want to keep her as a broodmare (although that is still under consideration). I prefer mares with a little better stamina, so if she goes, that will be the reason.

I picked up Art of Seduction as pure speculation. His high stamina was in direct contrast to his reputation as a sprinter. I've stretched him out and his PSR has improved with every race, but I'm not sure if he'll ever pan out. His grace period is about to expire.

I'm trying to not be hasty, but when I get in this mood, something usually happens.

Warp Factor Ten, Nighthawk to debut

2011-10-01T09:12:00.001-05:00

Colts Nighthawk (Nightwing x Flawless) and Warp Factor Ten (Run Missy Run x Nova) will both make their first appearance this weekend, highlighting a big week of racing at Otsego Farms.

"I try to find a reasonable field for their first race", Otsego owner Jim Webber responded when asked why it took so long to get the first 2yo's on the track. "I prefer to insulate my young horses from the chaos of a 20-horse field for as long as possible."

Miler Nighthawk will run in the 5F J.F. Meynink Stakes in a 8-horse field, while Warp Factor Ten will compete in the 5F JFK stakes in a 9-horse field. "We haven't figured out yet if WFT is a sprinter or a stayer. Hopefully this race will shed some light", Webber said.

4yo colt Machine Gun will shoot for his third straight win in the $1,000,000 Santa Anita Handicap. Webber commented, "He's going 10F for the first time, so we're anxious to see how he does." Machine Gun will face off against another War Machine product, Southern Belle (out of Southern Charm) in what should be an interesting sidebar to this race.

In a race that was discussed at length in the PF Forum, Methy Bus takes on top-flight competition in the 12F Caulfield Cup. Two Thousand, Druido Supremo, Run On Sentence, and Molecular represent the main obstacles to overcome. Notable was the late scratch by Isca's Dawn causing Webber to comment, "One less thing to worry about, you know?"

Thoughts that have crossed my mind in the last 24 hours...

2011-09-26T17:01:00.000-05:00

Captain Britain is dangerously close to being shipped out. He has not progressed much since winning his first race and our training staff thinks his potential may be limited. He'll get one or two more starts to get himself sorted out.
I really was quite pleased with the first run by 3yo Mocha Milkshake. He doesn't mature until age 4-5 and I was a little leery throwing him out there. He performed pretty well, finishing 4th with a 79 PSR. Definitely encouraging.
I recently had an inquiry about the purchase availability of War Machine or Union Jack. This came from a well-respected stable that I would love to help out. After thinking about it for a couple days I've come to the realization that I just could not part with either one of these stable icons.
I think that Methy Bus may be the best 12F horse in the game right now and I think he'll prove it by winning the Caulfield Cup next weekend. What makes this statement even more preposterous is that Methy Bus has never run at 12F.
I think I made a mistake buying Spy Vs Spy from Endless Vista. She was sired by Memcay, so I thought she might also be slow to mature, which would explain her lack of productivity. Unfortunately, I discovered that she matured quickly, so what you see is what you get.

Broodmare shuffle?

2011-09-25T08:07:00.000-05:00

An email discussion I had with another stable recently got me thinking about broodmares.

I've got nine at the moment with House of M waiting in the wings to fill the spot as number ten. She may retire at the end of this year, but if she doesn't, I'll need to secure a lease on a mare; as my plan calls for 10 foals in the next breeding season.

In assessing my band of mares... I'm pretty satisfied. For the most part, they are Classic or longer distance. The exceptions being Nova, who can actually handle up to 9F but was more successful as a sprinter, and Domino, who has produced a couple of very nice foals.

I prefer long distance horses and have been trying to slowly accumulate mares of that nature. False Demon, Shattered Record, Affirm Gal, In Spirit, Arctic Fox, Second Strike, and Ace Of Grace all fall into the distance category.

I am a little disappointed in False Demon. She has a very nice AR and looks to be a perfect match with War Machine; in fact, I bought her specifically to pair with the Triple Crown champion. Unfortunately, both of her two offspring sired by WM have been disappointments. The 2yo colt Trebuchet will make his debut some time this year, but is extremely finicky on surfaces; so much so that we actually fear for his ability to make a start without scratching. The 1yo filly Anck Su Namen also hates dirt and is a sprinter no less.

False Demon's most recent foal, newborn Blue Fairy, by Nightwing, looks much more like we expected. She projects as a dirt-loving distance filly.

Anyway, the point of this ramble is that I would consider some kind of mare swap for the next breeding season because I'd like to get some new blood into the stable. I really haven't got anything particular in mind but if you are thinking along the same lines, drop me an email and maybe we can work something out.

Deep Magic heads Down Under

2011-09-21T18:08:00.000-05:00

Deep Magic, 3yo colt bred and raced by Otsego Farms, has been sold to FDL Lodge.

His breeding created high expectations; which have not been met up to this point in his career. Sired by War Machine out of the superb mare Isca's Revenge from Smokey's stable, the connections at Otsego Farms thought they had a match made in heaven. "They (War Machine and Isca's Revenge) were both speedy, classic distance horses who loved dirt. We felt this pairing had absolutely everything going for it", Otsego owner Jim Webber stated.

However, Deep Magic has been slow to show off his talent. Six races into his career, he sports a record of 6-0-2-1 with earnings of $72,500.

With stall space a concern, Webber felt compelled to move Deep Magic in spite of the fact that 3yo filly Moondragon was sold to Formosa Farms just a few days ago. "This gives us a little breathing room, stall-wise", Webber continued.

"Finlay has the golden touch. Perhaps he and his people can get a little more out of Deep Magic. We wish him the best", Webber said as he held up a glass of Dom Perignon. "Cheers!"

Otsego Insider eclipses 20,000 page views

2011-09-16T10:32:00.001-05:00

October 2011 will mark the 5th year of publishing for the Otsego Insider, and I just noticed that the view counter stands at 20,074. Yay!

A couple years ago, as the counter approached 10,000, I stated that I would give a free War Machine breeding to the reader who emailed me a screen print proving that they were the 10,000th visitor. Mike Noble of the now defunct Noble Farms was the winner. (Miss ya Mike, you grouchy old bastard!) I would have done the same thing at 20,000 if I had noticed sooner.

I appreciate those of you who come in and read.

Domino solidifies her spot as Otsego broodmare

2011-09-15T20:25:00.000-05:00

Otsego Farms breeds for distance.

You can take one look at the stallions and figure that out. Or, you can look at the broodmares and what you find will also lend weight to the above statement. Unless of course, you look at Domino.

She was a sprinter/miler, sired by War Machine out of Sharp Cat. She never had much success on the track and eventually was sold to Golden Acres. A few short months later Otsego owner Jim Webber, having expressed regret at having sold her in the first place, repurchased her and shipped her back to Michigan.

"I'm not sure why I continue to reserve a spot for Domino. My Head Trainer tells me she'll never produce a stayer", Webber mentioned in a recent interview from his on-site gymnasium. "But I feel that she has some intrinsic ability that will manifest itself in quality foals."

And he may be right. Domino has borne two foals, both of whom are drawing compliments from the connections at Otsego Farms. Fillies Brick House (2014) sired by Machete, and Tricky Woo (2015) sired by Yeager, are both projected as multi-surface sprinters with above-average speed.

"I'm very satisfied with both of these fillies", Webber grunted as he finished his 50th push-up, concluding his 2-hour daily workout. They may change my mind about breeding sprinters."

Make way for Refractor

2011-09-13T19:15:00.001-05:00

BC Endurance Champ - Refractor

I've got three top distance stallions; Nightwing, War Machine, and Union Jack.

My carefully planned stable calls for three stallions. That's all I can house, and frankly, that's all I need. Refractor though, is making a strong case to be kept. However, keeping him means that one of my other boys have to go.

But, how do you dump a stable icon like Nightwing? How can you possibly send a Triple Crown winner like War Machine packing? Can you sell off an up-an-coming stud like Union Jack? The answers are: you don't, you can't, and absolutely not. So, when another sensational racer with huge potential as a stud comes along, you just gotta make room!

Refractor has proven that he is one of the best 16F racers in the history of Photo-Finish. You simply do not ship out a horse like that when his racing career is over. Luckily, Refractor is a late maturing horse with a peak that is projected to last a couple years, so he will race this year and next for sure. After that, he'll stay on and join up with the other fella's as another premier distance stud for Otsego Farms.

Bet the farm on this one folks.

2011-09-10T13:23:00.001-05:00

If I were a participant in the Survival Pool this week, I'd pick Refractor in the 16F Diamond Stakes.

Granted, it is a tough field with headliners such as Druido Supremo and Pluto in attendance, but Refractor is fully mature and primed for a victory.

Fortnightly and Superb Thinking are both solid competitors, but have bit off a little more than they can chew in this race. They are certainly qualified to compete in a GR2 race such as this, but with the scarcity of 16F races they will probably continue to bump heads with the top guns, which does not bode well for them.

At first glance, you wonder why Thunder Storm is in this field against such salty competition. He has had a fairly undistinguished career up until this point until he sparkled with a 110 PSR at 16F a month ago at Shenandoah Downs. The connections at Alba Chiara thought that was enough to take him out of the kiddies pool and throw him in the deep end with this race. Unfortunately, he'll be intimidated and dominated, finishing no better than 5th.

Quake is an interesting filly. She's never run at less than 16F and has put up some decent PSR's while doing so. She faced similar competition in the Breeders Cup Endurance last year and actually forced the pace for most of the race before running out of gas in the final couple furlongs to finish a disappointing 8th. More of the same in this race I suspect.

That leaves the big three, Druido Supremo, Pluto, and Refractor.

As good as Pluto is, Refractor has his number, beating him handily the last 2 times they've met at 16F by a combined 9 lengths. Druido Supremo and Refractor have split the last two meetings, but with Refractor now fully grown and mature as a 4yo, he will be exceptionally tough to beat at this distance. In fact the slowest time he has ever registered at 16F is 3:17.40.

GR2 Diamond Stakes 16F Turf

Refractor
Druido Supremo
Pluto

Quake

A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

2011-09-08T15:09:00.000-05:00

Even though it's just the beginning of the 2015 season, I'm already starting to get the dreaded itch to dispose of a few horses.

My 2yo's last year were a very satisfying and at the same time unsatisfying bunch. I got a few wins and a lot of placings even though none of them had more than four starts. That seemed pretty dang good to me. And yet, when I dig deeper into some of these horses, I'm not seeing the potential for breakouts as 3yo's.

Captain Britain won his first race and had us thinking he was the real deal. Unfortunately, after a few more less-than-inspiring starts and a review of his HRF stats, it looks like he may have average talent at best.

Moondragon also won her first start, then has disappointed ever since, showing mediocre speed and questionable stamina.

Deep Magic, Kit Fisto, and Xtra Run have all hit the board in at least half of their races, but have weaknesses that may severely limit their upside.

I will always have a place in my barn for horses that run in G3 or Stakes races. After all, someone has to fill those race cards, right? However, I've got my eye on a couple horses and I'll need some free stalls. Therefore, I envision at least two of the above-mentioned horses getting moved in the next few weeks. Sale or swap; I'm listening.

Let's get this party started!

2011-09-02T20:06:00.001-05:00

With just two entries, my first week of racing was inconsequential. I sent out a couple second stringers, so there was not a lot to get excited about.

This week however, I'm rolling out a couple established horses and several up-an-comers. The fields are large though and the talent is deep, so it's hard to tell how things will go.

3yo filly Xtra Run will try her hand at 6F after a successful 5F race in November. She put up a 86 PSR in that race finishing in second place. Her extremely slow starts continue to be a concern and I would prefer to put her in a longer race to compensate, but she just doesn't have the stamina at this point. Her AR states that she prefers distance, but with a stamina rating of 66, that doesn't hold water.

I'd like to think that 3yo colt Azrael, perhaps my best younger racer, will be on the path towards the Kentucky Derby. The new qualification process could be problematic for me though because Azrael will have to qualify earnings-wise, and I don't always chase the largest purse, preferring to enter races that I have the best chance to win. He'll be running in the 8.5F Holy Bull Stakes and a good showing will keep him on the road to the roses.

Stable stalwarts House of M and Crossbones will both run this weekend and should contend in their respective races. House of M is running at a pet distance, so she should be a handful. Crossbones is stretching out a bit to 10F.

3yo's Deep Magic and You Know My Name both run this week as well. Deep Magic is coming off 2 consecutive second place finishes, but has been unimpressive. He may be fighting for a stall if he cannot show significant improvement very soon. YKMN has won 2 of her last 3 races and appears to have enough ability to contend in F&M races.

On a side note, we have acquired 4yo filly Spy Vs Spy (Memcay x Inside Information). While browsing Endless Vista, she caught my eye. I have not seen her AR yet, but I'm hoping she is a late bloomer like her sire. I watched one of her previous races and noticed with amusement that her HRF stamina is rated as POOR. However, with a raw stamina score of 70, I would conclude that the POOR rating may be inaccurate. By way of comparison, War of the Lilies, who recently finished 2nd in the 10.5F Japan Cup Dirt, has a raw stamina score of 68. In any event, with her light racing history and blue-blooded parentage, I figured she was worth a chance.

Stall issue...again.

2011-08-31T21:12:00.000-05:00

Having 58 stalls and 58 horses is uncomfortable.

There is a horse that I would like to acquire, but with no available stalls, I am handcuffed. To make matters worse, I am currently not inclined to sell any of my horses, except for a foal I recently acquired in a trade for broodmare Baby Greyhound. Even at the risk of offending Tia from Circle F, I must dispose of my recent acquisition.

The filly Just Deserts (Perfect Goer x Revotic) is available for a cup of coffee. Frankly, her AR is not very good, but as we all know, a good AR is not a prerequisite for success. If anyone is interested I'll transfer her over for next to nothing.

I'm hoping to close a deal on another horse in the very near future, so I need that stall immediately. If interested, post here. First post (if any), gets her. If no takers, she'll go to EV if/when I get the other horse.

Broodmare will be shipped to new home

2011-07-29T13:34:00.000-05:00

Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber announced that thirteen year old broodmare Baby Greyhound has been traded to another stable in a transaction involving a yearling filly.

"We picked her up with the intention of keeping her for a few years, but the emergence of House of M, who will probably be retiring at the end of 2015, makes Baby Greyhound expendable," Webber explained. "We had an inquiry from an established stable about her availability and an agreement was reached."

When asked for more information on the transaction, Webber was noncommital. "We'll announce the details when the new season is underway. The yearling we acquired is not a top prospect, but we'll work her out and see what we've got."

Baby Greyhound produced just one foal for Otsego Farms, newly-born colt Jackhammer; who's sire was Union Jack.

2015 Foals Arrive

2011-07-19T10:52:00.003-05:00

UGOTTHELOOK - filly by Take A Gander out of Shattered Record

The 2015 foal crop arrived late last night, but with the temperamental nature of the site recently, information is sketchy at this point.

Ten foals were delivered - 6 fillies and 4 colts. That is a change of pace for our stable which has produced a preponderance of colts in the past couple of years. In fact, prior to 2015, 14 of our last 18 foals have been male.

Here they are in alphabetical order:

Big Bang colt Dirt Miler.

Big 'N Rich x Nova

Blue Fairy filly Dirt Distance.

Nightwing x False Demon

Galaxi filly Turf Classic.

Jenny's My Gal x Affirm Gal

Jackhammer colt Dirt Distance

Union Jack x Baby Greyhound

Numerator filly Multi-surface Sprinter

Reichenbach Falls x Second Strike

PracticallyPerfect filly Turf Distance

Union Jack x In Spirit

Steel Lion colt Multi-surface Distance.

War Machine x Ace Of Grace

The Golden One colt Dirt Distance.

War Machine x Arctic Fox

Tricky Woo filly Dirt Sprinter.

Yeager x Domino

Ugotthelook filly Turf Distance.

Take A Gander x Shattered Record

Beat those drums for Refractor

2011-07-15T15:38:00.002-05:00

Desi Arnaz plays "Babalu" on the Conga Drum

Thinking about broodmares got me thinking about stallions as well.

For the past several seasons, I've had 2-3 stallions. Nightwing, War Machine, and later, Union Jack. All three earned their spots as studs by having exemplary careers. Even with Otsego Farms relatively small size, reserving space for three stallions has not put a crimp in my plans.

Enter Refractor. It looks like this fellow may carve out a stallion-worthy career. Once the Columbian-bred colt matured midway into his 3yo season, the was a four-legged wrecking-ball laying waste to the long distance racing circuit. He finished the year on a 5-3-2-0 roll, with a World Record, a Breeders Cup Endurance title, and PSN's of 121, 122, and 120 in his final three races.

He will be firmly in his prime during the 2015 season and projects to have at least 2 seasons on top of his game, meaning he will most likely be a force in the 2016 season as well.

If he is able to maintain form for a while, I'll have to consider keeping him on as a stallion, and that will upset my stall plans, which are already stretched tighter than the skin on a Conga drum. But it's a good problem to have, right?

Just thinking aloud about my broodmare situation...

2011-07-14T13:59:00.003-05:00

I positively cannot have more than 10 broodmares in my stable.

I am currently at full capacity and I have a fine broodmare prospect in House of M who will probably be retired at the end of the 2015 season. Since I am interested primarily in Classic and Long Distance foals, Domino is the mare who least fits my needs, so she might end up on the chopping block, even as she is preparing to give birth to a foal any day now.

However, I'm not real comfortable letting Domino go. I sold her once before, to my good friend Steven of Golden Acres, and immediately regretted it. He was kind enough to sell her back when he ran into a stall crunch himself. She eventually became an Otsego Farms broodmare, and rewarded me with a beautiful chestnut filly, Brick House (sire - Machete).

As I said, I'm partial to distance horses, but I'll take a nice sprinter if I can get one, and Brick House looks like a nice sprinter. Multi-surface capable, with good speed and acceleration - what's not to like? If Domino were to throw another talented sprinter this year (sire - Yeager), I would have reservations about letting her go. I might be inclined to keep her and match her with a succession of sprinting sires.

If this were to happen, and my plans were to change, I would have to choose another mare to go and that would be either False Demon or Baby Greyhound. False Demon was acquired specificially to breed with War Machine, but their first two tries were both disappointments; colt Trebuchet (who will debut this year) and filly Anck Su Namun. In her career as a broodmare, Baby Greyhound has had mixed-to-poor results so far. Mixing things up, I matched False Demon with Nightwing this year, and Baby Greyhound with Union Jack, who has a history of producing quality offspring.

So, one of those three (Domino, False Demon, Baby Greyhound) will be sold during 2015 to make room for House of M. Who it will be depends entirely on how the new foals look. Just a few more days...

Too long of a wait for 2015?

2011-07-13T16:50:00.002-05:00

I think we'll all agree that Photo-Finish is an excellent horse racing simulation. Yes, it has it's imperfections. But they are being addressed on a case-by-case basis. The game is a lot better now than it was 5 years ago. There is progress on many fronts; from suggestions made by the rank and file and put into being by the sweat of Laurie's brow.

One fortress of concern however that has not been breached is the overlong off-season. Three months is a period of time that will test the patience of even the most steadfast stable owner.

What can be done? How can we bring this beast of an off-season to bay?

There are tasks that need to be done and they take time. Perhaps, if we can cut out all of the fat, the best we can accomplish is cutting the off-season from 12 weeks to 8 weeks. That would be a vast improvement. I'd like to see it at 6 weeks. Can this be done?

Suggestion One - Concerning Year-End Awards

Currently, Laurie makes the nominations then opens the voting process. After the nominations are published, PF stable owners cast their votes and eventually the YE Awards are announced.

I suggest a panel of 7 experienced PF owners with rotating membership that would make the decsions by vote. These YE Award decsions could be made within a matter of days, saving a significant amount of time by removing the foot-dragging owners from the process. This change could possibly save 1-2 weeks.

Suggestion Two - Concerning Year End Auction

This process can take up to 3 weeks from beginning to end. First the time allotted to review the stock, then the auction itself, then the time to negotiate on unmet reserves, and finally the distribution of stock.

I suggest it be eliminated altogether. Use the auction process during the year to buy and sell all horses, from breeders to foals. Why not? I see a potential savings of 3 weeks.

Suggestion Three - Concerning Breeding

This process consumes a month of Laurie's time and there is really no way to make a significant time savings with all of the manual labor that must be done.

However, Laurie's idea of punishing owners who make mistakes by giving them a barren mare is OK with me. This is a very important process and each of us should be willing to take a few minutes to make sure our information is completely accurate, rather than just haphazardly sending it in and expecting Laurie to sweep up after us. Without her having to send incorrect spreadsheets back and wait for a revision, I would think that at least a week can be saved.

So, I envision a possible savings of 5-6 weeks if these suggestions were incorporated. It seems that we could definately cut the off-season from 12 to 8 weeks and still give Laurie a little vacation as well.

Allright? OK. I'm glad that's settled.

Digging deeper to unearth a gem?

2011-07-11T17:19:00.002-05:00

I took a look at the HRF statistics for my 3YO's as of their final race last season. Without giving the actual numbers, here they are ranked from best to worst.

BREAK SPEED

Kit Fisto
You Know My Name
Deep Magic
Moondragon
Captain Britain
Azrael
Art of Seduction
Xtra Run

EARLY SPEED

Xtra Run
Moondragon
Azrael
You Know My Name
Captain Britain
Kit Fisto
Deep Magic
Art of Seduction

TOP SPEED

Xtra Run
Moondragon
Azrael
You Know My Name
Kit Fisto
Captain Britain
Deep Magic
Art of Seduction

STAMINA

Art of Seduction
Azrael
You Know My Name
Deep Magic
Kit Fisto
Captain Britain
Moondragon
Xtra Run

Interesting that Art of Seduction (AR says sprinter) has the highest stamina rating of the bunch. His speed is poor, which again translates into him being a distance runner.

Azrael looks like the real deal to me. His speed is good - just under the two sprinting mares Xtra Run and Moondragon, and his stamina is strong as well. His prognosis is good for 2015.

Xtra Run is very fast, but has no stamina and her atrocious break speed is extremely problematic. Even though her speed may be on a par with her sprinting peers, if she is 10 lengths down after the first furlong, the race may be over before she get stretched out.

Kit Fisto's relative lack of speed is partially offset by his quick starts. His stamina is good, and should improve as he matures, so his modus operandi should be to get out front, put it on auto-pilot, and try to hang on until the end.

I am a bit concerned about Deep Magic's below-average speed. He finished low both on early speed and top speed, and this is not an overly speedy bunch. His stamina is a bit better than advertised though, so perhaps by running at 10F rather than 8F (as suggested by his AR) he can do better.

You Know My Name breaks well and has decent speed. Coupled with her above-average stamina, it may be enough for her to build on her successful 2YO campaign.

Captain Britain (in spite of his decent showing as a 2YO) and Moondragon both look decidedly mediocre. I'll be keeping a close eye on their progress in 2015. If no improvement is made, they will be shipped out.

I hope you're not too attached to your heads.....

2011-07-11T15:08:00.000-05:00

Wielding hooves like a pair of katana's and shooting glances as sharp as throwing stars, 2yo colt Samurai Jack hits the racing circuit for Otsego Farms this year. Sired by Union Jack out of Affirm Gal, this handsome chestnut colt looks to follow in the footsteps of Captain Britain and You Know My Name, who were both sired by Union Jack and both scored victories as 2yo's last season.

Originally projected as our 4th best 2015 prospect, Samurai Jack has been moving up in the rankings due to excellent work on the track in training. "Looks like he has a slight preference for dirt, although he'll run on turf as well", commented owner Jim Webber, who continued, "This is a quality racehorse, and I'd expect nothing less from a product of Union Jack."

Samurai Jack makes up one third of a triumverate of Union Jack colts that will compete in 2015, with the others being Jack the Ripper and Crackerjack.

A peek into the office of Jim Webber, Owner of Otsego Farms

2011-07-09T13:06:00.000-05:00

Recent conversation between Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber and his Head Trainer:

HT: Do you have a few minutes to go over some horses Boss?

JW: Sure. Let's do it. Have a seat. Would you like a Perrier?

HT: Thanks. (Settles himself on leather couch and looks over notes.)

JW: Anything else I can get you? No? OK, let's get started.

HT: Shatterstar?

JW: He stays. He's still serviceable King. I want to race him one more year and then we'll see.

HT: (Nods head and jots down a note.) Are we gonna send Kayson to any GR1 races this year?

JW: I know he's has disappointed in the GR1's so far King, but those 107/108/109 PSR's are going to start telling very soon. He's too darn fast not to win. I want to see him in as many GR1's as possible.

HT: Uh huh. Got it. What about Machine Gun?

JW: That reminds me. Excuse me King. (Speaks into intercom to Secretary) Celeste? Please send Foxie four dozen roses and a $500 Gift Card to the Champagne Brasserie. Thank you. (Turns attention back to Trainer) I feel that Machine Gun will blossom this year King, but the clock is already ticking. No more Stakes races. GR3 or higher, OK?

HT: Gotcha. We agree on Methy Bus?

JW: Right. 10F or farther until further notice. He should have a monster year.

HT: (Checks notes again) I want to race Refractor strictly at 16F. Are we in agreement on that?

JW: Yes. I want to own that distance King. Is that clear?

HT: Crystal. What about Art of Seduction Boss?

JW: You tell me King. Is he a sprinter or not?

HT: He's no sprinter Boss. I figure he should be running at 10-12F.

JW: Then make it so.

HT: (Smiles) OK Jean-Luc. (Consults notes) What about Mocha Milkshake?

JW: That horse isn't going to be mature until he's 4 next year King, but not racing him is killing me. Shoot for a debut in July and we'll see where we're at then. Anything else?

HT: Just some odds and ends Boss. Nothing we haven't already talked about.

JW: How's Juggernaut looking?

HT: He's a stunner Boss.

JW: Excellent.

2015 Preview - Incoming 2YO Racers

2011-06-20T16:14:00.002-05:00

Nine new 2yo's will join the ranks of Racers at Otsego Farms in 2015. It is a very exciting group, primarily composed of Classic and Distance runners.

Boudica (filly - War Machine x Bold Alanna)

Maturing slowly, the white filly Boudica will probably sit out the 2015 racing season. She is a dirt specialist who like distance. We like this match quite a bit - Bold Alanna matched War Machine's strengths right down the line, leading us to believe that she will be a handful when she is mature.

Charlemagne (colt - War Machine x Second Strike)

This fellow's stately demeanor prompted his regal name. He's a dirt distance type who projects as our 3rd best 2yo prospect. Called "The King" by the grooms in the stable.

Crackerjack (colt - Union Jack x In Spirit)

The diminutive Crackerjack is a turfer like his sire. Looks like he'll compete at classic distances. Dam has produced two nice colts in a row in Crossbones and Kit Fisto, so we're expecting more of the same here.

Darkhawk (colt - Nightwing x Flawless)

A big fella at 17hh, Darkhawk appears not to have inherited his sire's stamina. He'll top out around 9F, preferring turf. Half-brother to 3yo Captain Britain, Darkhawk was the last foal that Flawless produced for Otsego Farms.

Jack the Ripper (colt - Union Jack x Ace Of Grace)

Projecting as our 2nd best 2yo prospect, Rip will run on turf at classic distances. With his breeding, it's possible that he may stretch to longer distance as he matures. Sire and dam were both adept at 16F so we're hoping that Jack the Ripper can do likewise.

Juggernaut (colt - Jenny's My Gal x Shattered Record)

Our top prospect, this light gray colt has no visible weaknesses. He's a multi-surface threat who likes the distance. Juggernaut will try to follow in the footsteps of older half-sister You Know My Name, who had success as a 2yo, winning twice.

Samurai Jack (colt - Union Jack x Affirm Gal)

A dirt classic runner, we like this match quite a bit. Union Jack has has tremendous success in the past couple of years as a stallion and Affirm Gal is one of our up-and-coming broodmares. The fact that SJ prefers dirt is a bit of a surprise though.

Trebuchet (colt - War Machine x False Demon)

Treb is extremely picky when it comes to surfaces. The only going he will tolerate is soft dirt, which will undoubtedly be problematic. He does like distance, so with the limited number of long races and his scratch-inducing nature, he may have a short career with limited starts.

Warp Factor Ten (colt - Run Missy Run x Nova)

Bred to go 8F or less, WFT became WTF? when it was determined that he preferred long distance over sprints. We are a bit concerned about how an oddball collection of genetic traits may play out, but he does show speed so if all else fails, we'll run him in sprints anyway!

Strategy change for 2015

2011-04-21T19:06:00.002-05:00

Now that 2014 is finished, I've been looking over the data to see how I've mismanaged my horses.

Sometimes a horse performs well at a specific distance and you fall into a rut. You just keep rolling him out there figuring, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. The problem is, there is a possibility that he may perform even better at a different distance, but we'll never know if we aren't willing to experiment a bit.

Consider Methy Bus. Looking at his record, you've got to concede that he's a pretty fast horse. Ten out of his 16 career races have exceeded 100 PSR. Fast, right?

Wrong. He's not particularly fast. His success is rooted in his outstanding stamina.

His recent stats check in as BREAK SPEED 71, EARLY SPEED 86, TOP SPEED 88, STAMINA 73.

He's a rather slowish starter with average speed...period. Nothing special there. Where he excels though is that gaudy, diamond-tipped, razor-sharp, gold-plated 73 for stamina. That my friends, is how this fellow pays the bills. As long as the race isn't too short, Methy Bus will usually run down the horses that are starting to lather and blow.

Back to my original point though. He's gonna run in longer races next year.

Methy Bus was efficiently and successfully managed by Chris over at Smokey's Stable. No doubt about that. And I just followed suit for the past couple of races with middling results. But now that I've had a chance to think about it, I'm convinced that he'll do even better with a little more distance.

In his longest races, he has tried twice at 10F. The first was the Cox Plate and he was the favorite at 9/4. He finished 3rd in a lackluster performance. His next race was the Kentucky Derby, also at 10F but this time on dirt, which is his less preferred surface. Again, he was well received by the oddsmakers with a 9/1 line and there were only 4 horses that had better odds. He obviously disliked the going, finishing 18th.

So, those two disappointing races don't exactly support my hypothesis, do they? Even so, two things are beyond contestation in my opinion:

A top speed of 88 is really too low to go against Milers.
A stamina rating of 73 should equate to success at 12+ furlongs.

Therefore, Methy Bus will try his luck at much longer races next season.

A sample of recent festivities in celebration of another successful season at Photo-Finish. Pictured here in the 1st Annual 1F Sprint Handicap In Drag, are (from left) Steven from Golden Acres, Ryan from Spartan Stables, Jim from Otsego Farms, Jim from Hutton's Horse Haven, Josh from JD Kayll Racing, and Chris from Cold Steel.

Be fruitful, and multiply.

2011-04-19T07:08:00.000-05:00

The 2014 season marked a milestone for Otsego Farms. For the first time, it was a season that showcased a talented and potentially explosive group of 2yo's.

Nova - Otsego Farms first homebred

Prior to 2012, my breeding operation was very limited. In fact, in the 7 years from 2005 through 2011, I bred a total of 18 foals; an average of just 2.5 per year. Coincidentally, I had very limited success with homebreds during this period. Nova was a bright spot and Shatterstar was and still is serviceable. Sabretooth also showed some ability, but won just 3 races in his career. Other than those, it was a motley crew of washouts.

I often wondered why was my racing success was so limited with my homebred's early on. Breeding-wise, I was just as careful during my early years as I am now. I look for appropriate pairings and mares with ability; never using a mare just because she's a mare. I breed strength to strength and try to cover weaknesses when possible.

Perhaps, I thought, it is just a numbers game. Produce more foals with quality breeding and the odds are better that some good ones will pop up. After getting some advice, I decided to gear up my breeding operation.

My current group of 2yo's was born in 2012 and was the first batch of the enhanced breeding strategy suggested by Steven of Golden Acres and Foxie of Foxies Lodge. During the period of 2012 through 2015, I will have bred 36 foals; an average of 9.0 per year. My first larger group has produced a boatload of talent...

Azrael 4-1-1-0. Son of Nightwing has lungs.

Captain Britain 3-1-0-1. Union Jack sired. Loves turf and distance.

Deep Magic 4-0-2-0. By War Machine and maturing nicely.

Kit Fisto 4-0-2-0. Another War Machine product who can make the distance.

Moondragon 4-1-0-0. Moet filly won debut and has some speed.

You Know My Name 4-2-0-0. Filly by Union Jack who is gonna be a handful.

Every one of these horses has potential and I'm very excited to have them all running as 3yo's next year. Additionally, my batch of upcoming 2yo's for the 2015 racing season looks stronger on paper than this group.

Results for Weeks 47-48

2011-04-10T13:13:00.001-05:00

It was a pretty good week, with all five racers hitting the board.

Nebula won her second straight race at 6F. It looks like her new pet distance, which shouldn't be a surprise since her dam Nova excelled at 6F. Her AR and HRF stats hint at longer distances, but it looks like she may stick at sprints for awhile. You can argue with success.

Deep Magic finished his season with a second consecutive 2nd place finish. He showed a strong kick, even at 7F, which was his longest race of the year. Looks like he'll be a miler as suspected. His slowish starts are a bit of a concern, but 8F should be long enough to alleviate the poor starts.

Crossbones rebounded nicely from his last place finish in the Indiana Derby to finish 3rd in the Hollywood Derby. He had a bad trip and didn't get any real running room until the last furlong. He finished with a flourish and I feel he would have won had his trip been smoother.

Necromancer performed very well again. He grabbed a 2nd place at 7.5F. It is his 5th consecutive finish in-the-money for Otsego Farms. In spite of his heroic performance for us, he'll get caught up in a numbers game and have to be moved at the end of the season.

Refractor finished his 2014 season with a strong, but disappointing 2nd place finish in the Brisbane Cup. He was beaten by 4yo Druido Supremo, for whom I have a tremendous amount of respect. Surprisingly, Refractor, the younger horse, carried more weight.

A record of 5-1-3-1 for the week.

Prediction? Pain.

2011-04-09T08:58:00.000-05:00

Refractor is riding a dominating 3-race winning streak and heads into his last race of the season this weekend in the 16F Brisbane Cup. In the past 3 months, he's won the AJC Chairman's Handicap, the Prix du Cadran, and the Breeders Cup Endurance; and has done so by an average of 7 lengths!

He'll face off against stout competition this weekend. Some of the other entries include 3yo phenom Pluto, super-stayer Druido Supremo, the always competitive Roanoke, and the veteran mare Ride The Sun.

When asked for a prediction, Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber was not shy. "Refractor is at the very top of his game right now. I think he's unbeatable at 16F at the moment, so he should bring the pain to the rest of the field."

Encouraging start from current 2yo crop bodes well for 2015

2011-04-08T13:43:00.002-05:00

Actor Kiefer Sutherland signals "thumbs up" to Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber (offstage) after Webber discussed his stables prospects on The Late Show with David Letterman.

Although there are no apparent superstars in out current crop of 2yo's, they have all performed admirably and have given us some bit of hope for the future.

Usually at this time of year, I am looking critically at the 2yo's with the purpose of sending a few of them packing. In the past, it's been a fairly easy process - just look for the ones that haven't made any money and have shown no improvement over the course of the year. For them, it's Bon Voyage.

This year is different though. They have all shown me something, or at least shown enough to forestall their departure at year end.

Art of Seduction 3-0-0-0

I purchased this well-bred colt after his first race. AR says sprinter, HRF stats say otherwise. He has not hit the board in two races at longer distances, but has looked decent. He'll get a chance to see what he can do next year at 10+ furlongs before any final decision is made.

Azrael 3-0-1-0

Slow-starting, hard-finishing colt, just like his daddy. He has been steadily improving, culminating in a 2nd place finish in his last race. Prognosis is good.

Captain Britain 3-1-0-1

This Union Jack sired colt has been steady, if unspectacular. His PSR's have been modest, but he has a propensity to hit the board. He may end up as a serviceable racer in the mold of Shatterstar. Hopefully though, he'll step up and accomplish a bit more.

Deep Magic 3-0-1-0

This fellow carried very high expectations. By War Machine out of Isca's Revenge, his breeding commands respect. He has also showed steady improvement, finally hitting the board in his third race. We anticipate a solid 3yo campaign.

Kit Fisto 3-0-2-0

Another Nightwing progeny, Fisto seems to have exceptional lung capacity. A couple of 2nd place finishes in three tries bodes well for next year.

Moondragon 3-1-0-0

She won her debut, then has regressed a little bit in the last two races. Has speed and has shown she can win, so she'll get another season to show more consistency.

Xtra Run 4-0-1-0

Being by Run Missy Run out of Xtra Heat, she should ooze speed. Her HRF stats do confirm that she has abundant ability, but so far, we've been unsuccessful in determining if she's a sprinter, a miler, or a distance horse. She'll get plenty of time to sort herself out.

You Know My Name 3-1-0-0

She won her second race in spectacular fashion, paving her way to the the BC Fillies Juvie, then bombed just as spectacularly. Has a ton of talent potential though and should be a credit to her sire, Union Jack, next season.

Mocha Milkshake 0-0-0-0

Slow-maturing 2yo who will not race until next season. We love the breeding of Memcay x Gourmet Girl and our trainers tell us this fella loves distance, so bring on 2015.

All nine of these horses will get a good long look next season as 3yo's. Azrael and Kit Fisto both have some potential as Kentucky Derby prospects, but they will have to show marked improvement early next year.

Brisbane Cup for Refractor?

2011-04-02T12:35:00.000-05:00

Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber was coy when asked about entering Refractor in the Brisbane Cup. "My first and strongest inclination," he said, "was to skip the trip to Brisbane and call it a season after the Breeders Cup win. But you never know..."

Playing in favor of a Refractor appearance is the fact that Otsego Farms has a successful history in this race, with 3 victories in 10 years. Nightwing won the Brisbane Cup in 2004 and 2005, and Union Jack won it in 2010. "Yeah, I'd like to get another one," Webber continued, "but Refractor has had a bit of a busy schedule in the past couple of months so I'm playing it by ear."

Refractor won the Prix du Cadran in Paris on October 7th, and followed that up with the BC Endurance victory at Churchill Downs on November 1st. This caused an unidentified stable to make sarcastic and derogatory comments in the media about Refractor's schedule. Webber bristled a bit at that. "We transport our horses via our own corporate jet, so we can cut things a little tighter. Of course, the smaller, less successful stables have to use public transportation. So I can understand their envy."

Refractor romped home in both recent wins, leaving quite a bit of stamina untapped. Webber concluded, "Physically, the horse could easily stand another 16F before the end of the year. He wasn't pushed at all in either of the wins."

Pairings / Names finalized for upcoming breeding season

2011-04-01T11:13:00.000-05:00

The final breeding pairs along with the names of all prospective 2015 foals have been released by Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber, who stated, "The expectation of the new crop is always an exciting time. In that regard, we like to publish the foal names early to get the juices flowing here at the stable."

War Machine x Ace Of Grace

Colt - Steel Lion

Filly - Dream Girl

Note: We've wanted to use both of these names in the past and they've never come up. We'll get one this year.

War Machine x Arctic Fox

Colt - The Golden One

Filly - Andromache

Note: Both names inspired from the "Troy" series of books. Andromache is pronounced An-DRAMA-kee.

Jenny's My Gal x Affirm Gal

Colt - Galahad

Filly - Galaxi

Note: Gal x Gal = Gal

Union Jack x Baby Greyhound

Colt - Herriot

Filly - Tricky Woo

Note: These names came from the delightful Books and TV Series "All Creatures Great and Small".

Yeager x Domino

Colt - Flash

Filly - Lightning Lass

Note: Can't believe the name Flash has never been used. Lightning Lass is a superhero name that I've thought about using a couple times.

Nightwing x False Demon

Colt - Schoolboy Crush

Filly - Blue Fairy

Note: Colt name is from a song I love. Filly name came from the quest of the robot boy in the movie A.I., who was searching for the Blue Fairy to change him into a real boy; just like in Pinocchio.

Union Jack x In Spirit

Colt - Admiral Boom

Filly - PracticallyPerfect

Note: Mary Poppins. Need I say more?

Big 'N Rich x Nova

Colt - Big Bang

Filly - She Bangs

Note: Big Bang just flows logically from sire and dam name. She Bangs is a derivative of colt name, more or less.

Reichenbach Falls x Second Strike

Colt - Numerator

Filly - Numerator

Note: Got the name from an old 3M horseracing game, Win, Place, and Show.

Take A Gander x Shattered Record

Colt - Ugotthelook

Filly - Ugotthelook

Note: From the iconic Prince song. I've never been a fan of names that are strung together like this, but it just felt right in this case.

...and Crackerjack makes three?

2011-03-30T15:19:00.000-05:00

Otsego Farms broodmare In Spirit is on a roll.

In Spirit is the dam of 3yo Crossbones (sired by Nightwing), who has surpassed the $1M mark in earning in just 13 starts, and finished 3rd in both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes; and promising 2yo Kit Fisto (sired by War Machine), who has a career record of 3-0-2-0.

The success of these fellows has given us great hope for another In Spirit colt who will make his debut in 2015. As implied by his name, Crackerjack was sired by Union Jack, who has had some success of his own in the breeding shed recently.

AR is displayed below:

Crackerjack (2013), 15.2 hand bay colt

By Union Jack out of In Spirit by Bellbuster

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.

This horse is ok on hard dirt.

This horse is good on soft dirt.

This horse is good in mud.

This horse prefers hard turf.

This horse prefers soft turf.

This horse has physical problems that may lead to alot of injury downtime.

This horse has average ratability.

This horse looks like it can run at classic distances.

Shatterstar takes the long road to $1M in earnings

2011-03-28T19:29:00.000-05:00

"This racehorse is as honest as they come. He's not blessed with blinding speed or endless stamina, but he'll give you a solid effort every time out." So said Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber when asked about 5yo Shatterstar finally reaching the $1,000,000 earnings plateau.

"He's been in-the-money in 26 out of 33 career races and has finished either first or second in over half of his starts", Webber continued. "You gotta love a producer like that."

It has taken some time for Shatterstar to reach this milestone because he has never won a GR1 race and has had only one purse that exceeded $100,000.

There was some speculation that Shatterstar would be sold to make room for younger racers once the magical $1M mark was reached. Those rumors were quickly squelched by Webber. "No way I'm selling this guy. He's coming back next year as a 6yo for another season."

Which will make him just the second horse in Otsego Farms history to have a 5-year career whilst wearing the blue and yellow. Can you guess the other?

Breeders Cup Excitement and Disappointment

2011-03-27T09:45:00.001-05:00

Otsego Farms came away with just one BC victory with Refractor putting away the field in the 16F Endurance.

"After I made several comments about Refractor being the top 2-miler in Photo-Finish, former stable owner Mike Noble stated that the Sunshine Stables stayer Pluto would shadow Refractor until the two met again", Otsego owner Jim Webber said after the race. "He didn't have to wait long, did he?"

With the large field, and his come-from-behind style, Refractor struggled to find running room for most of the race. But, with 3 furlongs to go, things finally opened up, and he was able to stretch out, pass the leaders and win in relatively easy fashion.

The other Breeders Cup entries did not go as well for Otsego Farms. Webber had stated, in a tongue-in-cheek manner, that he would sweep the four races he entered. Things did not go as planned.

"You Know My Name simply looked outclassed and had nothing at the end", Webber explained with a shrug. "I honestly think that both Methy Bus and Kayson would have won their races, but both had terrible trips. Kayson in particular was horrifically blocked by Medusa's Blood and had no possible hope of recovery. This is the risk you take when you sign up for a big field."

Blood-Horse Breeders Cup Interview - Part 4

2011-03-25T20:24:00.004-05:00

Kayson will make his Breeders Cup debut in 2014

The fourth and final segment of the interview:

BH: The final race you've entered is the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint with Kayson.

JW: Right.

BH: He's never won a GR1 race. Does he deserve a shot at the BC?

JW: Kayson is maturing slowly like his sire, Handsome Man. His best years are ahead of him and it starts right now. This guy is a machine that consistently punches out 108 PSR's. He's as good as any other horse in this race.

BH: Who are some of the other racers that concern you?

JW: A Rab is a tough racer, but I can't help wondering if he wouldn't be better off in the Mile. Dutty Wine could also be problematic. Ettore Fieramosca is not real well known, but has really blossomed as a 3yo and Undertaker seems to be peaking at about the right time.

BH: I'm surprised that you didn't mention Gorgeous George or Reining Money.

JW: Gorgeous George has won 4 races in a row, but frankly, I don't think he's fast enough for a straight-up sprint. Reining Money just seems to be a little off his game right now. He's a great horse but he won't be a factor in this race.

BH: So, it comes to this. How will Kayson do?

JW: I think you know.

BH: You're predicting yet another win?

JW: Of course. Do you really think any of these horses can beat him?

Blood-Horse Breeders Cup Interview - Part 3

2011-03-25T16:49:00.000-05:00

Frisky 3yo Methy Bus frolics in paddock

The third part of the interview:

BH: Newcomer Methy Bus will run in the Breeders Cup Mile?

JW: Yes. We acquired Methy Bus earlier this season from Chris Campbell over at Smokey's Stable and we're very pleased to have him.

BH: According to our records, the $3,000,000 purchase price was the largest in Otsego Farms history. Is that correct?

JW: Yes. He's a quality racer with a long projected career, so I felt he was worth the investment.

BH: Let's get back to talking about the BC Mile. How do you see the field shaping up?

JW: There are a bunch of candidates to win this race. You don't hear alot about Earth Angel, but he's very good at 8F. Isildur and the filly Lovely Star are both threats as well. Medievel Sorcerer and The Fates certainly can't be counted out either. You could bet on any of those horses to win and I wouldn't argue with you.

BH: Did you forget about Ton Of Luck?

JW: No, I just don't think he can win this race. He's 7 years old and his best days are behind him. In his prime he was about as good a combination of speed and stamina as you could get. He's still good, but he's not great anymore.

BH: And where does Methy Bus fit into this picture?

JW: He's set track records in two of his last three races and is in spectacular shape. Eight furlongs is right in his comfort zone, so I'd say he has as good a chance as anyone to win.

BH: You haven't exactly predicted a win...

JW: This is a tough race to figure, but if I didn't think he was gonna do it, I wouldn't have put that $5000 on WIN this morning.

BH: It looks like you're now three-for-three. You Know My Name, Refractor, Methy Bus. All wins?

JW: All wins baby.

Blood-Horse Breeders Cup Interview - Part 2

2011-03-25T13:44:00.001-05:00

3yo colt Refractor, in preparation for the BC Endurance.

The interview continued:

BH: Let's jump to the Endurance. You've got Refractor entered.

JW: Yes I do.

BH: Care to elaborate?

JW: He's a monster. Born to run at 16F. He'll win, hands down.

BH: You mentioned at one point that you werre concerned about his quick turn-around for this race. Is that still a concern?

JW: I'd prefer another week or two of rest, but I'm not overly concerned. Believe it or not, Refractor barely broke a sweat in setting that World Record last month. He was as fresh as a daisy the day after the race.

BH: The competition will be of sterner stuff in this race though...

JW: No question about that. Missy's KD looks to be very tough at 16F on dirt. The 3yo filly Quake is the real deal and she'll have a weight advantage. Vindictive has won the race two years in a row, for Christ's sake, and you can't forget Pluto, who is an absolute freak of nature.

BH: Your prediction then?

JW: As I said, Refractor will win.

BH: I'm sensing a trend here.

JW: How so?

BH: We've talked about two races and you've picked the Otsego Farms horse in both races.

JW: Well, we've got two more races to talk about yet...

BH: Yes we do.

Blood-Horse Breeders Cup Interview - Part 1

2011-03-25T09:47:00.000-05:00

2yo filly You Know My Name strikes a pose.

Blood-Horse magazine recently conducted an interview with stable owner Jim Webber concerning the Otsego Farms entries in the 2014 Breeders Cup.

BH: You've got to be pleased having four entries this year in the Breeders Cup.

JW: I'm estatic.

BH: Generally speaking, what are you're chances?

JW: In a BC race, just about any entry is capable of winning so their are no guarantees, but I'm very optimistic.

BH: Let's take it one race at a time. You have You Know My Name going in the Fillies Juvenile. Care to make a prediction?

JW: The competition in that race is brutal. The undefeated Clair De Lune is a concern, as are the Smokey's Stable pair of Inane and Lunatic. Of course, the biggest threat is War of the Lilies from Hopeful Farm. We've got a soft spot for her since she was sired by War Machine.

BH: What about FDL's Oprah's Angel?

JW: Very fast filly and I'd love to have her, but she can't make 8.5F.

BH: You haven't made a prediction yet...

JW: I've given Talamo strict instructions to force the pace early. If we can make War of the Lilies work hard to keep the lead, I think we'll get her in the last half-furlong.

BH: So...you're predicting a win?

JW: (Laughs) Well, it's a big field and there'll be alot of jostling for position. Maybe a horse or two will get cut off. You never know how things will sort out. But, if we get a clean trip, and Talamo is able to do what we want to do... then yes, I'm predicting a win.

Shhhhhh. You didn't hear this from me....

2011-03-24T09:51:00.000-05:00

After all, we don't want to offend anyone, do we?

Every year at Breeders Cup time, there is a pandemic of insanity. Owners who otherwise may be the epitome of level-headedness, lose their powers of reason and make ill-advised entries in BC races.

Frankly, there appears to be fewer questionable entries this year compared to years past, but there are still a few humdingers.

Breeders Cup Classic

How about Westfield's Sitiveni in the BC Classic? Arguably the premier race of the entire season and Sitiveni gets a seat at the table? He's a decent horse, mind you, but he's never put up a PSR over 94, nor has he ever won a GR1 race. So, how does he belong in such a prestigious race?

Breeders Cup Dirt Mile

While we're talking about Westfield, let's look at Black Mirage in the BC Dirt Mile. He also has never had a PSR over 100 and the only race he's ever won was a Stakes race at 6F. The last time he ran at 8F, he came in last place against GR2 competition. This fella is GR3 material at best, not BC caliber.

General Beauregard of History's own is a maiden for God's sake, and not a very good one to boot.

Breeders Cup Endurance

He's got the breeding and some potential, but FDL's Homme Fort, being a moderately talented maiden really doesn't belong among the august company of the BC Endurance.

Kayll Race Club veteran Tower Coup is way past his prime and hasn't gone past 12F in four years.

Breeders Cup Turf Sprint

Street Patrol from The Raja Stables may be a bit of a stretch in this race. He's a fairly handy horse, but he's never seen the winners circle and has raced on turf only twice in his entire career.

Breeders Cup Juvenile

I usually cut quite a bit of slack on Juvenile races because all of the participants are untested to some degree, but I feel compelled to mention two entries by BunnyHill Stables. The dynamic duo of Rockin Rusty and Triscay Waltz, with a combined record of 14-0-0-0 and earnings of $0, do not merit inclusion in this race and constitute a certain loss of the $40,000 entry fees.

Four racers to represent Otsego Farms at 2014 Breeders Cup

2011-03-23T11:48:00.001-05:00

After a 2013 season that was bereft of Breeders Cup representation, Otsego Farms will send an unprecedented four participants to Churchill Downs in 2014.

Aftera tremendous performance in the Brave Raj Stakes at the same 8.5F distance, You Know My Name will try her hand at the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Recent acquisitions Methy Bus and Kayson will also make their Breeders Cup debut's with Methy Bus running in the Breeders Cup Mile, and Kayson going in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint.

Lastly, after a World Record setting performance at 16F in the Prix du Cadran, Refractor will test himself against the games best stayers in the Breeders Cup Endurance. Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber said, "It's a bit of a quick turnaround at just 3 weeks, and I'd prefer turf to dirt, but we just had to send him. He earned it." When asked to make a prediction, Webber simply responded, "I think he'll win."

How much is a horse worth? Chapter Three - The Humorous Interlude

2011-03-21T13:31:00.002-05:00

This conversation took place recently on the PF Forum. Aadil was looking to buy a promising horse and pay up to $5,000,000.

HHH: Take a look at If The Cat Fitz. He's started out very good. What amount would you pay?

Aadil: How much do you want? A mill?

HHH: He's worth a minimum $3,000,000.

Aadil: Hmm I think I'll pass..sorry, but thanks for the consideration.

HHH: Hey, no problem. That let's me keep a horse that is gonna produce for my stable.

Less than two weeks later, If The Cat Fitz is up for auction on the sales page, with no reserve!

Seems like Aadil was willing to negotiate a bit. I mean, he didn't shut down the deal right away. He asked if Hutton would consider a million dollars. When negotiations quickly broke down, Hutton responded that he'd keep the horse and reap the benefits himself.

I certainly have no problem with that. Except for the fact that the fickle Mr. Hutton soured on If The Cat Fitz when he did not fair well in a couple GR1 races. His resolve to "keep a horse that is gonna produce" quickly morphed into "blow this fella out with no reserve".

This astounds me to no end. Hutton buys worthless cast-off horses continuously, and gets rid of horses that have potential! ITCF won two straight races before his setbacks against GR1 competition. Heck, here's an idea. How about rolling him back into a GR3 race and seeing how he does?

Some people may exclaim, "Quit picking on Mr. Hutton!" I assure you I'm not targeting HHH. I just look for interesting angles to write about and this one jumped right out at me. Can I help it if he constantly puts himself in that position?

New Sheriff in town...

2011-03-20T11:20:00.001-05:00

"This fella is just starting to mature. We think he'll be one of the major players at two miles for the next couple of years."

Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber - February 28, 2011

Refractor made his first foray into the 16F fraternity in spectacular fashion this weekend, demolishing the world record on turf previously set by the FDL Lodge Superstar Heat Seeker. The old mark of 3:17.40 was smashed, as Refractor finished the GR1 Prix du Cadran in a stunning 3:16.31.

"Refractor has just thrown down the gauntlet. He'll be the horse to beat at 16F on grass from this point forward", a jubilant Jim Webber exclaimed after the race.

The weekend was not a total success though. House of M was injured at Hoosier Park in a 8.5F race that many figured she'd win. The extent of the injury is not known at this time. She still managed a 3rd place finish.

Additionally, Crossbones had a mystifying last place finish in the Indiana Derby. "I have no idea what happened", Webber said. "He was in top shape and I thought he'd win." He finished 36 lengths off the lead and looked decidedly uncomfortable the whole race. "We'll have our medical staff take a close look at him", Webber concluded.

How much is a horse worth? Chapter Two.

2011-03-18T20:48:00.001-05:00

As I mentioned previously, a horse has different value to different people. But for the life of me, I can't see how Imperiosso is currently worth $5,510,000. It just doesn't compute.

He is for sale and the current leader at auction is Glenmore Park with a bid of $5.5M.

Imperiosso has won $6.4M so far in his career. However, the lions share of it came from a single win; an admittedly impressive World Cup victory at Dubai. In my opinion though, he probably won't win another $1M in the remainder of his career, which will probably be brief and/or relatively unsuccessful (at least at GR1 levels) since his AR states he will have a very short peak time.

Perhaps Glenmore is thinking that there is money to be made as a stud? Maybe, but the truth is, you're never gonna get rich owning a stud. There are just too many inexpensive options out there. Heck, if you've got a stud I can use in return, you can have a War Machine or Union Jack spot for free.

So, I'm confused. Can someone explain to me why this horse is worth $5.5M?

2011-03-16T20:09:00.000-05:00

I had really high hopes for Quasar. Sired by the legend Revenge out of Nova, one of the fastest fillies of her time, he was supposed to be a lightning-quick 8F-10F monster. Instead, he was a bust.

A bust you say? Isn't three races a rather small sample on which to base such an accusation?

I hope not.

Revenge and Nova were both slower than average to mature. They both did their best work as 3yo's. Perhaps I should have waited until Quasar was a 3yo before taking such rash action?

Nah. His performance has been abysmal. His HRF stats are unimpressive as well. Plus he has a very short peak. Add all of these things up and I'd say you got yourself a bad horse.

So, I decided to cut bait on this one. I stuck him out there as a BUY NOW for $5000, figuring that someone would grab a colt with his pedigree, even with his poor prospects.

So, who buys him? Hutton's Horse Haven. Go figure.

I'm not gonna lie. I'm very excited.

2011-03-15T18:56:00.000-05:00

Thanks to the generosity of a few PF friends*, who allowed me to purchase some horses that may have brought more on the open market, my stable is in the best shape it's been in years.

Now, I've got about 10 horses that are a threat to win every time they race. I have never had this kind of depth before, and it only gonna get better with a bumper crop of real prospects coming up next year.

Next year, with Kayson, Crossbones, House of M, Machine Gun, Methy Bus, Nebula, Refractor, Captain Britain, and You Know My Name, I'll have a load of excellent veteran racers. Add to that 2yo mega-prospects Jack the Ripper, Juggernaut, and Warp Factor Ten, plus unraced 3yo Mocha Milkshake, and I feel that my stable will be better than it's ever been.

*Rainbow, Smokey's Stable, Hopeful Farm, and Foxies Lodge

I just couldn't do it...

2011-03-14T18:49:00.000-05:00

He didn't deserve to get shipped out. He's finished on-the-board in all three races for Otsego Farms and his mom is a broodmare here.

I need to clear a couple stalls between now and breeding time and he was deemed the least stall-worthy of my current string. Not because he's no good; but because he's the least valuable of all my horses that are 3yo or older. My 2yo's get a pass into next season, which leaves me limited options for who to sell.

Necromancer will eventually have to go though. In fact, he spent an hour or two on the sales page today as a BUY NOW for $1000. Not bad for a horse who has been in-the-money in 9 of his last 10 races.

I ultimately decided that I'd just keep him until the end of the season, rather than risk him going somewhere undesirable. Luckily, I was able to snatch him off the sales page before someone bought him.

However, I'd still let him go under the right circumstances. If there is someone who is down on their luck and would like a decent racer for a cup of coffee, contact me.

Good week upsets plans...

2011-03-13T14:51:00.004-05:00

I have to clear a couple stalls before the end of the year, and this weeks racing was supposed to finalize my plans for the disposition of two racers. Instead, the success they had has muddied the waters considerably.

I bought Art of Seduction due to his breeding and tantalizing stamina rating. His first race for Otsego Farms produced a decent but unremarkable 8th place finish in a crowded field of 18. His trip was not clean but he finished well, so even though he was out of the money by far, it was a promising showing. In spite of that, he was on the chopping block due to necessity.

His race this week was supposed to cement his position on the sales page. But, a 4th place finish in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile has me reconsidering, especially since he had a boatload of unused stamina at the end of the race, reinforcing my original thought of his suitability for much longer races.

Another racer who was starting to become dispensable in my eyes is Nebula. Out of the money in her last two races, and seemingly making no progress ability-wise, I had decided that another finish off the board finish would spell doom for the well-bred filly. I shortened her distance a bit, thinking that may help, but she still went off at rather long 11-1 odds. Seeing that the oddsmakers again had no love for her, I prepared myself to sell her this week.

Nebula looked spectacular, making a hash of the field and winning by an easy 7 lengths. Any thoughts of selling her went out the window.

So, two racers that I had immediate plans to sell, have both gotten a reprieve.

On the other hand, Necromancer, who has produced very well in his time at our stable, has now moved to the bottom of the totem pole along with 2yo bust Quasar. Watch the sales page if you have any interest...

Unsolicited advice to no one in particular.

2011-03-12T17:31:00.000-05:00

Every owner has the responsibility to ascertain the strengths and weaknesses of their horses to the extent of which their time or interest allows.

We all use the Ability Report (AR) to some degree as a starting point. To this we add what we may glean from the horses race performance. Finally, we analyze the statistics from the .rce files, and a picture of the horses true abilities begin to emerge.

With all of the data to consider and digest, why do we sometimes make bad decisions regarding entries?

I have a specific case in mind; a 3yo colt named Secret Energy.

I have not seen this horses AR, so I do not know if the owner has been mislead by the printed word. But simply looking at the race history leads me to the belief that he is a sprinter. He put up a 118 PSR, and finished 1st at 4.5F and finished 2nd with a 104 PSR at 5F. His efforts at longer distances have been poor. His most recent stat line reads as follows: Break Speed 76, Early Speed 91, Top Speed 92, Long Stamina 64.

That LS rating of 64 screams SPRINTER. It is one of the lowest scores I have ever seen and pigeon-holes this fellow into races of 5F or less. His ES/TS of 91/92 is pretty good, explaining why he did well at those short races. Why then, in the name of Willie Shoemaker, has Secret Energy run his last two races at 10F and (gasp) 14F?

He finished in last place in both races, and in the 14F St. Leger, was an astounding 105L back of the winner. Perhaps the most ill-advised entry I have ever seen... and I've seen some doozies. Please note: Beerfest finished 53L back and was only slightly less preposterous as an entry in this race with a LS of 67. He shouldn't ever go beyond 8F in my opinion, even though his last four races have been at 14F, 16F, 16F, and 12F.

Back to Secret Energy. This is a sprinter. His performance suggests it and his HRF speed attributes confirm it. I would recommend that he go back to sprints and stay there. He'll be much more successful, that I guarantee.

Moral of this story? Use the published evidence on your horse to properly place him. It's all there, you just gotta look at it and think a little bit.

So.... how much is a horse worth?

2011-03-10T17:51:00.000-05:00

It really is quite entertaining to observe transactions that take place in Photo-Finish. Whether the sales take place privately, or are done via auction, they all eventually end up published on the sales page for us to scrutinize; and I for one, find the information to be fascinating.

I look at some of these horses with myriad last place finishes, a history of poor speed scores, and consistently lousy odds, and for the life of me, I can't figure out what people are thinking by bothering to bid on them. "Now wait a doggone minute there Jim", you might be thinking. "You paid $30,000 for La Force, who was obviously a bad horse. Isn't this a case of the pot calling the kettle black?"

I don't think so. La Force has an abnormally high, and fairly rare stamina rating and, based on that alone, I thought he might have some potential at longer races. I was wrong, but I felt that his monstrous stamina rating merited spending the 30 grand. In retrospect, I'm sure Laurie would have sold him to me for considerably less.

I marvel that one owner pays just $50 for a horse worth considerably more. Then I'll marvel again that another owner pays $10,000 for a horse that is worthless. They say that beauty is in the eyes of the beholder, right? Can the same be said for talent? How do we put a price tag on potential?

Aadil recently posted that he was looking for a quality 2yo. Aren't we all? The difference though, is that he is willing to pay up to $5,000,000. Now that can get your attention.

Unfortunately, owners that think they have a 2yo horse that may have $5M in purses in him, usually won't sell. They want the enjoyment of winning the money themselves and gaining the acclaim that goes along with it. Owners that think their 2yo horse will not win $5M in their career though, are usually the ones that will sell. Case in point: Hutton offered up If The Cat Fitz for $3M and Aadil wisely turned him down.

I recently paid $2,000,000 for Refractor, $3,000,000 for Methy Bus, $1,250,000 for Kayson, and $300,000 for Machine Gun. Refractor hadn't done anything before I bought him, but he has shown that he is worth the investment. Methy Bus cost a fair bit, but he is talented and has a long career ahead. Kayson is just now maturing, so I felt the price was right, given the potential benefits. Machine Gun is maddeningly inconsistent, but he may yet prove to have been a bargain.

My point is... we all see things differently. There are probably people out there who think I overpaid on some or all of these horses. Time will tell.

Take cover. Buying spree continues...

2011-03-06T21:08:00.000-05:00

A long-coveted racer became the property of Otsego Farms tonight when a deal was struck with Foxies Lodge involving the 3yo colt Machine Gun.

"We've had discussions with Rachel concerning Machine Gun on a couple occasions," Otsego owner Jim Webber confided. "She has wanted to give him every opportunity Down Under, but as you all know, Foxie has a low tolerance for underperforming horses, regardless of their pedigree. I think the 4th place finish by Machine Gun this weekend sealed his fate at Foxies Lodge."

The chestnut colt is by War Machine out of the super-staying filly Promised Land. He has a current record of 7-1-2-0 with $205,000 in earnings.

"I spoke to Foxie a couple times about this fella. I've been following his career since the start and asked her again earlier this year if he was available. At the time she said no, but a couple disappointing starts must have changed her mind. I'm glad she's got a good memory and called me before selling Machine Gun via auction. I owe her another favor," Webber promised with a smile.

Interesting Factoids (to me anyway)

2011-03-04T17:41:00.000-05:00

I have a spreadsheet with data for all of my non-breeding horses. It shows their age, maturity rate, length of career peak, best distance, and their rating on all surfaces. I find it very handy. In fact, I refer to it frequently when I am analyzing the horses and making entries.

I was glancing at it today and was noticing a few things. I have 37 horses listed and:

Three have a Very Long career peak. 5yo Shatterstar, 3yo Crossbones, and weanling French Twist all project to have careers spanning many seasons. I also have four horses that project with Long careers. They are 3yo Methy Bus, yearling Jack the Ripper, and weanlings Vinyasa and Zombieslayer.
The vast majority of my horses are Quick to mature. However, I do have a few who are growing up slowly. They are 4yo Kayson, 2yo Mocha Milkshake, and weanling Slaya. Those three will not be fully mature until 4-5 range.
I've got a couple horses who absolutely hate dirt. With 5/5 reflecting Prefer/Prefer on Hard/Soft dirt, 2yo Captain Britain and Weanling Anck Su Namun both check in at 1/1. My worst on turf are 2yo Xtra Run and yearling Trebuchet, both at 1/2.
27 Males vs just 10 Females. That surprised me a bit, especially since four of the ten fillies are weanlings and hence, a long way from racing.

Negotiations result in 3yo Methy Bus joining Otsego Farms

2011-03-02T16:31:00.001-05:00

Methy Bus (far left) thunders down the stretch to finish 2nd in the Doncaster Handicap

Methy Bus, the compact 3yo colt by A Bus out of Annibynnol Meth was purchased today from Smokey's Stable for $3M, making him the most expensive horse ever purchased by Otsego Farms. Methy Bus has a career record of 13-4-4-2 with earnings of $1.3M. Recently, he finished 2nd in the $1,000,000 Doncaster Handicap.

"Finding quality horses that owners are willing to part with is not easy", Otsego owner Jim Webber stated in a classic understatement. "We've had feelers out for quite a while for one more horse, and we were able to make a deal with our good friends from Smokey's. Methy Bus projects to have a long racing career, so we felt that justified a significant investment."

Otsego Farms has loosened the purse strings this season with three high profile purchases. First came 3yo stayer Refractor for $2,000,000. Kayson, the 4yo sprinter then checked in for $1,250,000. Now Methy Bus for $3,000,000.

That puts us in a great position for 2015 with solid veteran performers such as:

Shatterstar - 6yo miler/classic
Kayson - 5yo sprinter
House of M - 4yo filly classic
Crossbones - 4yo classic
Refractor - 4yo stayer
Methy Bus - 4yo classic
Nebula -4yo filly miler

Hopefully, a couple of our current 2yo's will blossom as 3yo's next season. We remain very high on colts Captain Britain, Deep Magic, and Kit Fisto.

8-2-3-0. I can live with that.

2011-02-28T18:33:00.000-05:00

Refractor pulls away down the stretch.

Having gone close to a month without a win, I was glad to see a couple of them this weekend to get that monkey off my back.

Refractor, who was probably running beneath his station, won the 13F AJC Chairmans Handicap. He was the prohibitive favorite and carried 17 lbs more than the closer competitor. I have been trying to find longer races for Refractor and this one happened to be in the right place and right time. He has posted his two best speed scores at 13F and 12.5F. We think he may do his best work at 16F, and that is what we are aiming at down the road. Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber was quoted as saying, "This fella is just starting to mature. We think he'll be one of the major players at two miles for the next couple of years."

Shatterstar, the grizzled veteran 5yo, came up with a win in the GR3 Parramatta League Stakes at 7.5F. It was the shortest race in his career. "His huge lungs served him well in this race." Webber commented. "He simply blew away the competition in the last furlong."

Crossbones, Necromancer, and up-and-coming 2yo Deep Magic all had second place finishes.

Simple system for horse travel?

2011-02-27T16:47:00.002-05:00

Simple is an insidious word, because what sounds simple to me, may be a programming nightmare for Laurie.

I'm not sure how most people feel about instituting a travel rule into Photo Finish, but I have been in favor of it for ages. My gut feeling is the only thing holding it up is a way to introduce it to the game without the Administrator having to spend 6 months at hard labor.

I was thinking it about it again and I would suggest a simplified approach. How about this for a possibility? Divide the world up into four quadrants with North America in the top left, South America in the bottom left, Eurasia in the top right, and Australia in the lower right, with each race track getting assigned to a quadrant.

The system would have to remember the quadrant that the horse raced in last. Then, when choosing future races from the drop down menu, the only races that will show up will be the ones that can be reached in the allotted time. For instance:

Next race in same quadrant - Horse can run in races after 14 days.

Next race in adjacent quadrant - Horse can run in 28 days.

Next race in diagonal quadrant - Horse can run in 42 days.

This would approximate the logistics/difficulties of intercontinental travel. It would require that owners be a little more on their toes, no question about that. I for one would welcome it. Perhaps a column could be added to the stable page that would identify the horses current quadrant location. That would help immensely in planning.

Any input on this subject?

Still looking...

2011-02-22T16:15:00.000-05:00

Otsego Farms is still in the market for one quality racer.

Preferably a 3yo or a 4yo with two racing seasons left according to AR. Sprinter, Miler, or Distance types are all acceptable. I lean towards a filly but a colt would be OK. I am looking to spend some cash...up to $2M (perhaps higher) for the right horse.

I've got a lot of young horses in the chute and I race my 2yo's very sparingly, so I need another veteran racer for next season and beyond.

Contact me at mvpcandidate@gmail.com.

Just a few things on my mind...

2011-02-21T12:26:00.001-05:00

1) The La Force experiment is officially over. I bought him from Endless Vista for two reasons:

strong breeding
excellent stamina

As I mentioned previously, his AR says Sprinter, but that was under the old programming where some horses may have been misclassified. I thought it was possible that he might have had a little more lung capacity than anticipated. That may be true, but there is another fly in the ointment that continues to hamper his performance which I'll describe in layman's terms.... he's lazy!

No matter what distance he races, La Force simply will not exert himself. I've raced him at 9F, 12F, and 16F. He generally starts well, then settles in at effort-level 3 to breeze through the rest of the race. That kind of work ethic is not permissible, so La Force has bought himself a ticket back to Endless Vista.

2) Kayson threw up a 107 PSR and was only able to manage a 7th against GR1 opposition. He's fast, but we'll try him at GR2 or GR3 next time out.

3) We were very impressed with the 2nd place finish of Kit Fisto in his debut. It was 8F on turf against four other 2yo's and the lone older horse, 5yo mare Light Touch, who was the winner. Fisto was the favorite and carried the most weight. He's the half-brother of 3yo colt Crossbones, so it looks like broodmare In Spirit may have thrown another decent one.

Otsego says goodbye to War Hammer

2011-02-18T16:44:00.000-05:00

The enigmatic 3yo colt War Hammer (War Machine x Shattered Record) has been sold to Hey Buddy Racing Stable for $30,000.

"We had very high expectations for this fella, but he just hasn't panned out for us. We are confident that he will do well for our friends at Hey Buddy", a rather subdued Jim Webber stated at the press conference to announce the sale.

The connections at Otsego Farms knew that War Hammer was going to mature slowly, but obviously decided they didn't want to wait. "We're in a perpetual stall crunch and unfortunately, War Hammer has to be classified as collateral damage." Webber continued, "We really like him and wish we had unlimited resources so we could bring him along at his own pace."

Which way to go?

2011-02-12T10:26:00.001-05:00

I've been writing the blog for over 4 years and I've changed the look many times. The title has always been Otsego Insider, but the font and picture at the top have been modified often.

I was originally thinking that the look should remain static. That would portray solidity and continuity. I mean, how often has the banner and general look of the Wall Street Journal changed over the last 100 years?

But, I just can't seem to stay satisfied with the way the blog looks, therefore I change it often. So I continue to struggle with the choice of finding a layout I like and keeping it forever, or changing it as often as my mood dictates.

I'll have a Gal in (near) Kalamazoo

2011-02-09T21:31:00.000-05:00

I was putting my breeding pairs together, trying to be as logical as possible. When I finally got done and the dust cleared, one pairing stood as follows:

Jenny's My Gal x Affirm Gal

What are the odds that I'd have a sire and a dam both with the word Gal in their names? I didn't plan it that way. They just ended up together as though it was meant to be. That initially led me along the lines of Kismet/Karma for foal names.

Eventually though, I thought that I just had to continue the Gal thread; whether the foal was a colt or a filly. So the names for this pair will be:

COLT - Galahad

FILLY - Galaxi

Always thinking...

2011-02-08T19:57:00.001-05:00

As I mentioned in a previous post, I'm in the process of reconfiguring my stable to accommodate a maximum of the following:

10 Foals
10 One-year olds
10 Two-year olds
10 Three-year olds
7 Older racers
10 Broodmares
3 Stallions

Sixty total stalls. I figure it will take me until the end of 2015 to get everything the way I want it.

In that regard, I'm evaluating my current stock to see who will be leaving Otsego Farms between now and the end of the season. I'll probably sell a couple soon, because my stable is currently full and I hate having no available stall space. You never know when an emergency acquisition may be necessary, right.

My older racers next year will be headlined by 6yo Shatterstar, 5yo Kayson, and 4yo's House of M, Crossbones and Refractor. Horses that will be in this potential category that will be sold are La Force, Necromancer, and War Hammer, with Nebula currently being on the bubble. Nebula is a talented filly who I just can't seem to get a handle on. She'll get a couple more chances to convince me, one way or the other, unless someone makes me an offer in the meantime that I can't refuse.

I'd like it if all of my current 2yo's made it into next season, but there is a possibility that one or perhaps two of them may have to be sacrificed.

I see myself adding 5 stalls at the end of this year, which would put me at 55. I'm currently full with 50 horses and I will have 10 foals, so I need to cut my string to 45 by the end of the season in order to accommodate the youngsters.

Also, I'd like to spend another million or so to pick up one more nice racer. Any ideas?

I've had better weeks racing-wise, but something good still happened...

2011-02-06T20:29:00.001-05:00

I'm not real happy with a record of 7-0-0-3 for the week. Truth be told, I wasn't expecting too much because none of my top runners were going, but no wins or places in seven starts still smarts a bit.

Xtra Run sure is a slow starter. Worst breaking horse I've ever had. She has other skills though and I'm still high on her, but she's gonna need to mature a bit and get into much longer races. She finished 4th out of 7 this week.

Shatterstar, Necromancer, and Quasar all has 3rd place finishes. The first two fellows deserved to hit the board with nice efforts. Quasar looked terrible though and if it wasn't just a 4-horse race, he would have finished well down the line.

You Know My Name looked decent in her debut finishing 5th out of 11. Moondragon had a middle-of-the-pack finish, a disappointment after recording a win in her racing debut. Art of Seduction had a rough trip with little clear sailing, but he looked OK in finishing 8th in a 18-horse field.

A positive development late in the weekend saw a deal between Otsego Farms and Hopeful Farm come to fruition. Four-year-old sprinter Kayson (Handsome Man x Lady Kay, picture above courtesy of The Hopeful Report) will join our stable at a cost of $1,250,000.

We have a distinct lack of sprinters, and needed another veteran racer so Kayson fits the bill on both accounts. He's definitely got speed in the 5-6F range, putting up PSR's of 109, 108, 105 and 104, and he's a late maturing type, so we feel he'll have at least one more full season at peak performance. We're very happy to have him.

Thwarted, but not defeated in my attempts to buy a horse

2011-02-05T11:56:00.000-05:00

I have been trying for the last month to buy one more good racer or up-and-comer. I want a proven commodity with another season or two in the tank, or a blue-chip prospect; and I'm willing to pay the necessary price.

I've recently had my eye on two horses, neither of which was ever offered on the sales page. On one horse, I made an unsolicted offer. The other horse was offered to me as a possibility. Negotiations on both showed some promise, but were ultimately unsuccessful. Understandably, owners are leery about selling good horses.

So, I continue to have my eye open for talent. I've got just a single open stall, so I'm being picky about who occupies it. Once it is filled, I'll be out of the market until late in the season. At that time, I'll be clearing out some stock to make room for 10 incoming foals.

La Force, Necromancer, and War Hammer are three names that have come up as prospects to be sold. However, I've made a mental committment to keep these fella's until late in the season to give them every chance to succeed. Eventually, a couple others will be chosen to join that outgoing group.

But for now, my energies are aimed towards one more solid purchase. If anyone reads this and wishes to make a suggestion of one of their horses, please do. I'll ask that you not be offended if I decline, because I am looking for a very specific type of talent.

Big racing week at Otsego Farms

2011-02-04T09:45:00.001-05:00

7-5-3. Those are the magic numbers this week.

Seven total racers. That is a lot for me considering that I've had just over 40 entries all year so far.

Five two-year-old entries. I've only had 7 entries total for all of my 2yo's thus far in 2014.

Three Otsego Farms debut races. New acquisitions Art of Seduction and Necromancer both make their first appearances in the Blue and Yellow, and the 2yo filly You Know My Name (Union Jack x Shattered Record) hits the track for the first time in her career.

Moondragon will run in the 5.5F Tippett Stakes looking to make it two in a row after getting the win in her first race. The field has 13 entries which is just past the normal tipping point where I scratch a 2yo, but I decided to give it a go based on her strong previous showing.

Xtra Run makes her second start in the 6F Angle C Stakes. She's a slow starter who did not perform well in her debut at a short 4.5F. The extra distance should help her immensely, and even though it's probably still way too short for her, we're predicting a win.

Veteran Shatterstar, who will stick around at the stable for as long as it takes to become a million dollar earner, and 2yo Quasar (Revenge x Nova) round out the entries.

Latest scientific discovery at the Photo Finish laboratory.

2011-02-02T16:50:00.002-05:00

In real life, horses do better with adequate rest. In most cases, that is also true in Photo Finish.

We're all tempted to run these fantasy critters every 14 days or even more frequently than that because it's fun and because it's usually more profitable to race them than to rest them. Some of us are more than tempted, we just do it. Sometimes by design, sometimes by accident.

I always suspected that the software was sophisticated enough to deal harshly with over-racing. It was advertised as the most realistic racing simulation on the market. How could it not?

And yet there are instances in Photo Finish where lack of rest does not always doom a horse. I wonder why? Perhaps because, like in real life racing, there are horses who can handle a heavy workload with little trouble.

In any event, I was curious about how lack of rest affects a horse and I thought I'd check into it. I'm not sure why it never occurred to me to look at this before, but I decided to look at a horses four main attributes when well-rested, then again when not well-rested. A perfect test case emerged a couple weeks ago when Myasa won a race on 5-30-14, then lost horribly on short rest on 6-3-14.

Port Pirie took some heat on the June entry with some camps believing it was a simple case of greed. Connections at Port Pirie insisted it was just an oversight. Either way, it is a perfect example for this test.

The four attributes for Myasa when well-rested were:

Break Speed - 81

Early Speed - 90

Top Speed - 91

Stamina - 70

Very good overall ratings. Good enough for her to easily win the race at 12F against some tough hombres like Run On Sentence, Pluto, and Refractor.

She was back on the track in just 4 days and her lack of rest manifested itself with these numbers:

Break Speed - 73

Early Speed - 88

Top Speed - 89

Stamina - 66

Across the board, the numbers were way down. The stamina number was especially poor, and woefully inadequate for The Derby at 12F. She finished last.

So, we have to keep this in mind. I've had racers that finished a race with an ESN of 1200 (I don't know what Myasa's ESN was after the first race) and I thought, "Cool. He hardly worked at all. I can probably send him to that race in 16 days with no repercussions."

However, if a horse finishes a race with a solidly positive ESN, perhaps that by itself doesn't necessarily mean he may be ready to race soon. Maybe, as reflected in Myasa's case, the base numbers are still affected negatively, which will probably manifest itself in ugly fashion on the track.

Maybe some of you knew this. I knew the base numbers got better as a horse matured to full strength and then declined as the horse aged. I never really thought about significant race-to-race changes as a result of how the horse was being treated. I'll look more closely at this in the future, that's for sure.

The annual horse-naming trial

2011-01-31T21:56:00.000-05:00

Well, now that I have all my pairings figured out for breeding, the foal-naming process begins in earnest.

I originally dubbed my stable "The Superheroes of Racing" because of my penchant for choosing superhero names from the DC and Marvel Universes. For the last couple of years, I've found it tougher and tougher to find names I liked, so I've been branching out a bit into heroic and infamous historical and literary figures. That is where names like Charlemagne, Kit Fisto, Boudica, and Jack the Ripper came from.

I've got several picked out for this year already, and I ran them by my wife to test the waters. Some passed that litmus test and others did not. She felt a couple were too pretentious. One in particular that she did not like was "The Golden One".

I recently finished a 3-book series (historical fiction) on the Trojan War. In these books, there was a character named Helikaon, who was an ally of King Priam of Troy. He was so gifted in every way that he was said to be favored by the gods, hence his nickname of "The Golden One". I admired the character and thought the name was fitting for a racing thoroughbred.

So, because my vote is the only one that counts (with regard to Otsego Farms), The Golden One passes muster and will be another colt name for 2015.

Inspiration for a horse name

2011-01-28T21:48:00.000-05:00

This song has a hold on me. Always has. Therefore, one of my colts next breeding season will be named Schoolboy Crush.

$1000? Why not?

2011-01-28T14:01:00.000-05:00

Because the majority of my racers are 2yo's and I race then so sparingly, I have very few entries each week. So, in the interest of having a little more fun, I thought I'd pick up a couple of veteran racers and Necromancer was out there waiting to be plucked.

He's a 3yo who he has shown that he has some talent. At 8.5F, he has put up PSR's of 95, 93, and 79 and he's been in the money in 6 of 10 career races.

I was kinda surprised that no one else even bothered to steal him away by risking just $1500. I thought that a newer stable looking for a horse to bring in a little cash might take a chance on him.

He'll occupy a stall as a racer here at Otsego Farms until the end of the season, then he'll be moved out to make way for younger horses.

I think I've finally figured it out...

2011-01-24T18:42:00.004-05:00

While sitting under an apple tree, Sir Isaac Newton was inspired to create his universal theory of gravitation when an apple dropped on his head. I have recently had a similar epiphany and discovered what I believe to be a universal truth.

What is this universal truth?

There is not a lot of value in two-year-old horses.

The fact is, I just don't run them enough for them to be worth much. Here we are at the halfway point in the season and my ten 2yo's have run a combined total of SIX races. Now, how in the heck can I make judgements on the value and keepability of these horses if the database for my consideration is so small?

You see, I'm forced to make value judgements quickly on these horses because of my stall situation. My 50-stall organization was supposed to be comprised as follows:

3 Stallions

10 Broodmares

10 Two-year olds

10 One-year olds

10 Foals

7 Racers aged 3+

My problem? Because of my propensity to severely limit my 2yo entries, I don't have enough data to make an informed decision on which 2yo's go and which stay. There is only one remedy for this quandary.

I gotta have more stalls!

My new configuration will be exactly as above with one addition:

10 Three-year olds

Basically, all of the 2yo's will get a free pass into their 3yo season and I'll take a little longer to evaluate them. At some time during that season, some will undoubtedly get the boot, but it won't be before they have convinced me thoroughly of their lack of talent.

This just feels right.

Lightning strikes twice...

2011-01-24T11:47:00.000-05:00

I haven't had alot of debut wins with 2yo's in the past few seasons. In fact, I've had very few in the history of Otsego Farms. The only ones that come to mind are War Machine and Huntress. Well, 2014 is shaping up as a banner year in this category with not one, but TWO debut victories.

Earlier this season, Captain Britain (Union Jack x Flawless) won his first race at 8F on turf, and this past weekend, the unheralded filly Moondragon (Moet x Monsoon) took the lead and held on to win the 5F Balcrest Stakes.

I say "unheralded" because there were several 2yo's that rated higher in our system this season than Moondragon. The dam, Monsoon, was a middle-of-the-road racer who did display some ability, but was by no means a star. Sire Moet was a tremendously fast sprinter who has had some success in the breeding shed, but hasn't made a huge splash yet.

I've still got three unraced 2yo's waiting to make their debut. Is it possible that lightning can strike thrice?

Flying to Oz...

2011-01-21T10:57:00.001-05:00

I actually get to debut a 2yo this weekend. I've been trying for weeks to get my last few 2yo's out there, but the fields have been too big.

Finally, a decent sized field and therefore, Moondragon will make her first appearance. There will be just 10 horses in the 5F Balcrest Stakes on the turf in Morphettville. She's a miler by Moet out of Monsoon and hasn't struck our trainers as a top-notch prospect, but that can all change with a solid showing Down Under.

It was a bit of an expense to ship Moondragon all the way to South Australia for her debut, but I had business there anyway, so I thought I'd tag along, killing two birds, so to speak.

Also, project-horse La Force will try his hand at 16F at Shenandoah Downs. I had an idea that he might be able to handle longer distances, so I picked him up as an experiment. His first race for Otsego Farms at 12F did not go well, but he didn't exert himself at all, so we figure we'll try to make him work a bit at 2 miles.

Stable stalwarts House of M and Nebula will both race this weekend as well. Obviously, expectations are higher for these fillies. We expect both to hit the board. Initially we were predicting 2 wins, but the competition in the A Gleam Handicap got a little stiff, so while we think she's capable, it'll be a tougher road for Nebula in our opinion.

Somebody stop me...

2011-01-19T17:24:00.000-05:00

I'm reasonably patient when it comes to my horses. However, when I have a blue-chip prospect who has a record of 4-0-0-0 in the middle of his 3yo season, my patience begins to ebb.

In fairness to him, War Hammer's (War Machine x Shattered Record) AR states that he will mature at the average rate (age 3-4). So, some slack must be cut in regard to his pitiful performances thus far.

But in his last race, a 8F affair on turf (which should be well within his abilities distance-wise), he went off at 31-1 and finished last, 31 lengths off the lead and 24 lengths behind the next worst horse. That type of performance does not instill confidence, especially for a horse, as I said, in the middle of his 3yo season.

So, why do I need to be stopped?

Because I wanna sell this horse. Every fiber of my being screams at me to put this horse on the sales page. I've commented about it a couple times in this blog and the only reason I haven't sold him yet is because somebody who's opinion I respect suggested I hold out a bit longer.

I keep looking at my stall situation though and it's very apparent that several horses will have to go to make room for the new crop of 10 foals coming in next year. So why not beat the rush and find a new home for this fella now?

You can carve this in granite. He gets one more start. I'll give him 60 days to rest (and mature a smidgen more) then he better show me something.

Baby Greyhound revisited...

2011-01-17T16:03:00.000-05:00

While trying to determine the optimum stallion for BG, I decided that a check of her racing statistics might provide some insight. I've seen her AR, which states that her best distance was 12F, but that was back in the day when AR's were considered much less reliable (and that is saying something because many people think they still may be worthless, despite some tweaks by Laurie).

I went to the middle of her 3yo season and picked a 9F race in which she finished 2nd. Checking the race stats, I saw that her Top Speed was 90, which would be very good for a 12F runner. I was expecting to see a Stamina number in the 70-71 range, but unfortunately it was just 68, which equates to more of a miler-type, in my opinion.

Hmmm. Now where did that "best distance 12F" come from? The answer was found when I looked at the Kick rating. This is a rating that evidently measures courage or strength down the stretch. Baby Greyhound's rating was over 1000, which is excellent. To put that into perspective, that rating typically ranges in the 300-800 range for most horses, with the higher number being better. At one time, I believe the Kick rating was used in determining the preferred distance for a horse.

Predator was also a horse whose AR said 12F was his best distance. That was evidently also determined in part by an abnormally high Kick rating. The truth was...Predator was always better at 8F or less.

So, it seems to me that my new girl is not quite the horse I thought she was. Rather than a producer of stayers, it looks like she might crank out courageous milers with a finishing kick, and that's OK with me. I was gonna match her with Union Jack, but after digesting all of this, I may be on the lookout for a miler-type stallion instead.

Broodmare Baby Greyhound acquired

2011-01-16T19:43:00.000-05:00

"The twelve-year old broodmare Baby Greyhound was acquired from Endless Vista today and will join our stable in the next week or so", Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber announced late Sunday afternoon.

"Wanting to pick up one more mare to make it an even 10, I've been looking at some options for the past few days. I have always liked Baby Greyhound and was surprised she was available. I feel that her attributes are perfect for the kind of foals we want to produce."

Because of this acquisition, some shuffling will take place in the previously announced pairings for 2015 breeding. At this point, it is undecided exactly how things will shake out, but early reports having Shattered Record switching over to the Oak Tree stallion Take A Gander, with Baby Greyhound taking a spot with Union Jack.

All systems are go...

2011-01-13T16:35:00.001-05:00

I've got a feeling about this filly. Run Missy Run x Xtra Heat? Are ya kidding me? She's gotta be fast, doesn't she?

She didn't get a lot of love in her first start. The bookies sent her off at 21-1 and only two horses had worse odds. In spite of a horrific start, she rallied to finish 5th with a respectable 80 PSR.

Looking at her stats after the race, I saw that she is fast, just like I had hoped. I also saw that she was a very slow starter, and had I known that, I wouldn't have started her in a short 4.5F race. She just couldn't make up the ground after breaking poorly and hitting the 2F pole in 9th place. Fortunately, the gate speed blurb was reinstated into the AR's last season, so this will not be an issue going forward.

I'm very high on Xtra Run, as I should be with her breeding, and considering I spent $1,000,000 in prying her away from Mike at Noble Farms.

Keep an eye on her. She'll go a little longer next time and I'm predicting a win.

Love / Hate Relationship

2011-01-12T18:09:00.000-05:00

I love (and hate) having a bunch of fresh, shiny new 2yo's every year.

Two seasons earlier, you carefully chose all of the pairings and when these 2yo's are finally ready to begin racing, they are a fresh canvas on which a masterpiece is waiting to be painted. This in an intrinsically satisfying process. It's also a lot of fun to witness their first race, drinking in the pre-race stats and odds, then savoring the tension as your finger is poised over the Start Race button. Finally, enjoying the race itself.

On the other side of the coin, there is that letdown that we have all experienced, when your new horse breaks poorly, trails the pack, steadily loses ground, and finishes last. Now you realize that even though you've waited 2 seasons for this phenom, he's not ready to race and he'll probably be on the shelf for another year. Immaturity is the bane of every 2yo owner.

As Chelsey said in her blog today, patience is sometimes required with racehorses. Unfortunately, some of us don't possess it in sufficient quantities.

Many owners have sold off a horses, knowing full well that it was immature and that was the reason for it's troubles. They've waited two seasons for that dang horse and psychologically, they are all-in. The chips have been pushed out onto the table and there is no pulling them back. They think, "I'm not waiting another year to race this horse", and it's gone to the sales page. Happens all the time.

Most of the time, it's the right move. If they are shit early, they are usually shit later as well. But... not always. There have been many celebrated cases of owners giving up on youngsters too early, and there is nothing more painful than to watch a horse you kicked to the curb turn into a superstar for another stable.

So, there you have it. Love 'em or hate 'em, we'll all keep cranking them out because we all want that home-bred superstar and you gotta kiss a lot of frogs to find a Prince, right?

By the way, don't even get me started on all the 20-horse fields.

Quite a coincidence...

2011-01-10T21:41:00.003-05:00

A couple days ago Ryan put this link up on the forum and suggested that this song be our new stable anthem.

The video that is shown with this song is a collections of scenes from the movie "Blade: Trinity".

Coincidentally, I had a part in that film. It was a couple of years before I hit it big with my starring role in Crank 2. Here is a still photo of me as my character, Hannibal King.

Reflections on racing weeks 21-22

2011-01-09T12:45:00.002-05:00

House of M continues to mature into a force to be reckoned with. She won the 8.5F Milady Handicap in relatively easy fashion and was as fresh as a daisy after the race. She definitely has more distance in her.

Nebula also raced in an 8.5F GR1 race, but didn't fare quite as well. She finished 2nd in a small 4-horse field, laboring at the finish. A 45-day rest and a slightly shorter distance next time will suit her well.

Refractor had a very odd trip. His jockey was under strict orders to trail the pack and make a run at the end. That is not the way the race unfolded however with Refractor contending for the lead early on. This left him a little short down the stretch, where he slipped back to 4th place in the Japanese Derby. His $160,000 payday took a little sting out of the disappointing finish however.

War Hammer (sigh) . I'm afraid that he may have reached the end of the road at Otsego Farms. He really didn't have a lot of business being in the GR2 race this weekend, but the distance was right and it was a small field so I figured, "Why the Hell not?" I didn't expect a win. I just wanted to see some small bit of improvement. It didn't happen, so he'll probably hit the sales page. His AR says he like a lot of distance and that he will mature at age 3-4, so maybe there is some bit of hope for this fellow in the future, but it won't be at Otsego Farms.

Mega-prospect Quasar was very disappointing in his debut. Analyzing his numbers this morning certainly did not instill confidence either. He is supposed to mature early and since we are in the middle of his 2yo season, I expected something more than the awful showing he produced. With my stall situation, I can't afford to spend a lot of time with early-maturing horses that show nothing. He'll get one more try in an attempt to hang on to his stall.

Last second entry flip...

2011-01-08T11:27:00.003-05:00

I really want to see what Refractor can do at 16F. His speed is not his best asset, but I think he has the potential to outlast most other horses, hence his intial entry in the 16F Perth Cup. He sat as an entrant in that field all week, only to be yanked at the last moment and put in the 12F Japanese Derby.

The bottom line is... I couldn't pass up what I felt was an inferior field in a much more lucrative race.

In the Perth Cup, Refractor would be facing Druido Supremo, Duo Power, High Heart, and the still dangerous Islegetrevenge. All that risk for a smallish $350,000 purse? Even though I felt Refractor could hold his own against those fella's, the risk/reward ratio just didn't seem adequate to me.

On the other hand, the $3,200,000 purse in the Japanese Derby is heavenly against a relatively unproven field. Obviously Pluto is a concern, as are a couple of the other horses, but even a 3rd place finish in that race would pay $320,000, which is more than the winner will collect in the Perth Cup.

So, I was forced to make the change. As a strategic move, I naturally waited until the last moment.

Ironically, I am always a little annoyed by the last second entry in a race where I have a horse. Sorry for doing that folks. I have championed random cut-offs on entries in the past, so that people like me cannot wait until 7:59 to drop a horse on an unsuspecting field. But that is a different subject altogether.

I think Refractor has a tremendous chance to hit the board in the Japanese Derby and at least a punchers chance at the win. I'd be a lot more confident with a couple more furlongs, but ya can't have everything. Right?

Otsego Stud heating up...

2011-01-06T10:30:00.002-05:00

I've had several inquiries in just the past few days concerning stud service by War Machine (pictured above), Nightwing, and Union Jack. These inquiries have resulted in a few bookings.

This rash of activity is probably in response to the recent, and in some cases brilliant success of the following horses:

By War Machine - Blood, Conscription, House of M, General Admission, Southern Belle, and War of the Lillies.

By Nightwing - Crossbones, Green Parrot, and Under My Feet.

By Union Jack - Captain Britain, Fra' Diavolo, and Gravedigger.

Otsego Farms is holding 5 spaces from each stallion for personal consumption; leaving 10 available for each horse. These will be filled first-come first-serve. My studs are available only on a quid pro quo basis...meaning I'll swap bookings if you have a stud that I like or if we have done business before (or if you're one of my peeps...you know who you are). If you do not have an appropriate stud or connections, I'd consider selling the spots on a case-by-case basis for $50,000 each or less.

These studs have had surplus capacity in the past, so it may not be an issue this season, but with the success of their recent batches, they may now have a little more appeal. I expect Union Jack in particular to be a fairly hot commodity, so plan accordingly if you have any interest.

Captain Britain victorious in debut

2011-01-02T11:33:00.003-05:00

The spirited 2yo bay colt Captain Britain won the 8F Bank of Queensland Stakes this weekend, continuing a very hot streak for the offspring of his sire Union Jack, who's initial crop has hit the ground running this year with a combined record of 8-3-1-1. Olmo Dorato's Fra' Diavolo is currently a perfect 2-2-0-0, and Snowbank's, Gravedigger sports a 3-0-1-1 record. Additionally, Stars and Bars from History's Own finished 4th in a 17-horse field.

"Captain was a little winded at the end, no doubt about that," Otsego owner Jim Webber observed in the pressroom after the race. "Eight furlongs is a little long for an Otsego debut, but we knew he had it in him."

Then thanking the reporters, Webber ducked out saying, "OK, gotta run. Foxie made the trip down from the Gold Coast to watch this race. We're celebrating with a bottle of Dom Perignon 2002."

When asked why he was celebrating with Foxie, Webber responded, "She's been a fan of Union Jack as a sire for a long time. She keeps an eye on how his offspring are doing. Watch for her boy Alphabet later in the season."

Case Study: How not to buy and sell horses.

2010-12-28T20:10:00.000-05:00

In his last 7 races, The Fates (not pictured above) has won $422,500. During that time his PSR's have averaged well over 100. Sounds like a horse worth keeping, doesn't it?

Not so for Hutton's Horse Haven who sold the horse for a pittance recently to make room for the likes of Aftershock, Busby's Babe, Compass, Gypsum, Justice For All, Neptune, and Top Rank Suite. These paragons of racing have combined for a record of 43-0-0-4, with career earnings of $29,000. Eighteen of those 43 races have resulted in last place finishes.

We've all made unwise and rash decisions. I sold Stowaway, a horse I loved and who was very good to my stable financially for a rat $7500 because he had a couple bad races and I thought he might be done. That decision was rash...and stupid. But because I've done it myself, I can forgive Hutton for selling The Fates. What I can't forgive or understand, is his propensity to buy bad racehorses. Especially in this case when he's buying not one, but 7 bad racehorses. If there was a Board of Directors at HHH, Jim Hutton would be fired and he would deserve it!

Like Amanda said (I can't call her Mandy anymore because it annoys her very proper British husband), it's sometimes better to have a vacant stall than a stall inhabited by a worthless, money-consuming horse.

The formula is pretty simple:

Hang on to the decent to good horses and divest yourself of the bad horses.
Occasionally, take a chance on an under-performing horse if there are mitigating circumstances that explain the poor performances, such as immaturity or improper management.
And most importantly, do not buy 7 bad horses at the same time.

Follow these simple rules and you may be able to remain solvent until you strike it rich.

May already?

2010-12-23T11:39:00.000-05:00

How much longer can I hold out on racing these 2yo's?

Here we are in the middle of May and I've sent just two of my youngsters out to the track. Deep Magic and Xtra Run have both raced once with middling results, but eight others (nine if you count acquired 2yo Art of Seduction who hasn't raced for Otsego Farms yet) have yet to run.

With the early success that Union Jack has enjoyed as a sire, I'm particularly interested in getting Captain Britain, 2yo colt turf stayer, and You Know My Name, 2yo dirt classic, into the fray, but the right opportunity hasn't arrived.

Which brings me to the real reason I'm writing this article. WE NEED MORE 2YO RACES.

Every year, we break records with the number of foals being born. We've got 2yo's coming out our ears every season, and yet we still don't have enough races to accommodate them all.

I look at the race card every week and I see a bunch of races for 3, 4, and 5 year olds that have small fields. I'm talking four or five horse fields by the handful every week.

But not for the 2yo's. As you all know, the 2yo fields are commonly 15-20 horses large, with under 12 being very scarce. I'm just wondering why we can't have more 2yo races so we all don't have to deal with 20 horse fields every time out.

Heck, I'd like to race my early maturing 2yo's a little more, but I just cannot justify putting them out there in a 20-horse scrum for a $48,000 purse. With the sizes of my stable and breeding operation, my racing string is comprised of about 67% 2yo's and it will be that way going forward as well. It explains why I have only 23 races in the book even though the season is 40% over.

From past experience, it seems like the 2yo fields get somewhat smaller later in the season. Perhaps we only need more races earlier in the year? I don't really have an answer, I can only mention the problem. And in my opinion, 20-horse fields being the norm for 2yo races doesn't seem right.

Preakness for Crossbones?

2010-12-20T14:27:00.001-05:00

Crossbones, the 3yo colt by Nightwing out of In Spirit, will skip the Preakness even after racing to a strong 3rd place finish in the Kentucky Derby. The bay colt has fashioned a career record of 8-2-1-3 thus far with earnings of $730,000.

With a shrug of his shoulders, Otsego owner Jim Webber confessed, "I screwed up. No question about that. I wasn't thinking of Crossbones as a Triple Crown candidate so I entered him in the Wood, just 19 days prior to the Derby. After winning that race, I felt he deserved a shot and was happy with the result."

Crossbones finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby behind the winner Isca's Dawn, filly from Smokey's Stable and colt Mongoose from Oak Tree.

"However, the 14-day turnaround to the Preakness is just too quick for where Crossbones is at physically right now. Therefore, he'll skip the Preakness and begin training immediately for the Belmont. Questions?"

After his performance in the Wood, did you think Crossbones could win the Derby? "He's a talented horse and I knew he's be in the mix, but I wasn't really expecting a win."

Do you feel like you're shortchanging Otsego Farms by not continuing along the Triple Crown path? "No. If he'd won the Derby, I would have thrown caution to the wind and entered the Preakness. That didn't happen so I can afford to take a more realistic approach."

Can Crossbones win the Belmont? "Yes. I think his speed/stamina ratio favors the 12F race. He'll be there and I'm sure he'll do well."

"No more questions guys. I've gotta get to the airport and get the jet ready to take a guest home that I've had for the weekend."

Camera's flashed as Webber left the room while reporters yelled out, "Where are you going?"

As security escorted him from the room, Webber looked over his shoulder and said, "London."

Crossbones, Refractor both place 3rd in big races.

2010-12-19T17:17:00.000-05:00

My racing results this week left me satisfied, and yet unsatisfied.

A 3rd place finish in the Kentucky Derby is certainly quite an accomplishment for Crossbones. Truth be told, I didn't think he would win it, especially on a relatively quick turnaround from his last race. Now, the Preakness looms a scant 14 days down the road. He may not be ready. We'll see how the field shapes up before a decision is made.

Refractor finished 3rd in the Derby Italiano. Also, a worthy feat. However, I felt he had a tremendous chance of winning that race so again I was, in a sense, disappointed.

House of M had a decent showing, with a 5th in the Kentucky Oaks and Nebula finished 4th for the 3rd consecutive race.

Newly-acquired LaForce continues to be an enigma. His AR says he's a sprinter but his stamina rating suggests he may be a stayer. My plan was to try him in longer races. His first attempt for Otsego Farms was at 12F and he didn't do well. The troubling thing was watching him run a significant part of the last third of the race at a leisurely effort level 3. He finished the race with a ton of excess stamina due to his indolent attitude. He'll get an even longer distance next time out.

On the bright side, my quasi-predictions on the Kentucky Derby were largely accurate, so at least I have that going for me, right?