Race Results for Weeks 7 & 8

Another winless weekend left Otsego Farms with a overall year-to-date record of just 17-1-4-3. During game-weeks 7 & 8 we sent five racers to post and came limping home at 5-0-1-1.

Kid Flash went off at 6-1 in the Shannon Stakes and finished a very disappointing 5th. He has been a very consistent on-the-board finisher in the past 2 years, so we are always surprised when he finishes out of the money. The Kid did turn in a respectable 99 PSR however.

Candle of Life finished 4th in a 8.5 furlong Allowance. The oddsmakers did not think much of Candle, sending him off at steep 13-1 odds. A win wasn't in the cards, but a 3rd place finish looked probable as Candle charged, but the jockey chose to ignore an open lane, instead moving behind another horse. His PSR was 89.

Our 5yo mare, Affirm Gal finished 3rd in the Buena Vista Handicap behind dead-heat finishers Annibynnol Meth and Wishings Wells. Affirm Gal sparkled with a 98 PSR.

Sitio Estrategico finished 6th in the 12 furlong Colin Stephens Quality Handicap. It's the third straight poor race by Sitio, so a change in tactics may be in order. PSR was a very ordinary 74.

Confederation just missed a second straight win by finishing second by a neck in the 8 furlong George Main Stakes. The winner, Private Ensign out of Eureka Racing Stables, was carrying only 107 lbs and just plain outkicked Confederation, who was carrying 127 lbs, at the wire. Confederation had a sterling 101 PSR and now has a season record of 2-1-1-0 with earnings of $147,500.

Carefully Investigating All 3yo Filly Offers

I've got three 3yo's and they are all colts.

• Big Slick - Tantalizingly talented but currently not fulfilling expectations.
• Mister Fantastic - Immature and banned from racetrack until further notice.
• Chancellorsville - Just brought aboard and being evaluated.

I need another 3yo to race, a filly, so I can get into the 3+ F&M races. If anyone has a 3yo girl that they'd like to sell, I'd like to discuss it with you. I have just a couple requests:

1. Fewer than 10 career races
2. Ability to hit 80+ PSR on regular basis

You can contact me at mvpcandidate@gmail.com. I've paid an average of $327,500 for the last four non-auction purchases I've made, so I won't stint you on the deal if you've got something that catches my eye.

My 2yo Dilemma - Solved

There has been quite a bit of discussion lately centered on our new crop of 2yo's.

It is the largest group of new racers ever to grace the tracks and stables of Photo-Finish, and the sheer size of this freshman class of horses is causing problems.

We have had just six 2yo races thus far. They have had fields of 20,20,20,19,18,18.

There will be five more 2yo races this weekend. If nothing changes, those fields will be 20,20,20,19,16.

That makes 11 races with an average field size of 19.1 horses.

I'm sure that all of those horses are not maturing early, so many of them shouldn't even be racing yet. But, I do understand the excitement that causes many of us to get those colts and fillies running as soon as possible because I've made every mistake you can possibly make in this game.

However, one mistake I'm not going to make anymore will be running my 2yo's too early. Our stable has made the decision to hold all 2yo's off the track until July 1st each season, whether they are maturing early or not.

I see a couple benefits from this strategy....

• Avoid 20 horse fields as much as possible
• Avoid early and possibly unfair judgements, which may lead to disassociation with a particular horse

The 2yo's I have are:

1. Bane - Matures quickly. Likes a lot of distance.
2. Born to Fly - Matures quickly. Sprinter.
3. Quicksilver - Matures quickly. Sprinter.
4. Rogue - Matures quickly. Classic distances.

They could all be running early this season, and in fact I did try to enter a couple, but quickly pulled them when the fields got out of hand. They will all continue to train hard, but will not see the track until high summer.

Race Results for Weeks 5 & 6

We had just two racers this week, 6yo Doomsday in the Tramway Handicap and 3yo Mister Fantastic in the San Vincente Stakes.

Doomsday extended his on-the-board streak to 11 straight with a solid second place finish. As is his habit, he jumped to the early lead, but the race-high 128lbs eventually wore him down. He faltered in the final furlong and was beaten by 2 lengths by Caledonia's The Majestic. Doomsday continues to show good speed, posting a PSR of 99.

Mister Fantastic ran a horrific race, scoring a 20 PSR. He broke well, but began losing ground almost immediately, eventually finishing last, 33 lengths off the winner.

As I have said in the past, this horse has a very smart AR. Unfortunately, as we all know, that and $1 will get you a cup of coffee. He is still immature, so we will give him the benefit of the doubt. However, he will not race again until June or July at the earliest.

Idle thoughts about acquiring horses...

I bought the 3yo colt Chancellorsville the other day from Matt at Port Pirie. I sent Matt an email and because he was looking to open up some stall space, he humored me by letting him go for a nominal amount.

I've actually had him in my sights for awhile, primarily because he is an offspring of Nightwing. In fact, I think I spoke to the breeder, Bill at Stonewall, about acquiring him on at least one occasion when he was newly bred or perhaps when he was a yearling.

Chance has had a short and uneventful career so far, so when I reported the purchase here in the blog as a matter of normal procedure, I expected the purchase to go by unoticed.

Then, out of the blue, DJ of Under The Weeping Moon, who's opinion I value highly, commented that he thought Chancellorsville could "do some nice things this year".

Well, that sat very well with me, because I wholeheartedly agree.

Because he was lightly raced as a 2yo (Matt knows what he's doing), I figured he was the late maturing type. His breeding is impeccable (Bill knows what he's doing too). And, as a cherry on top, his PSR's have been improving from 48, to 82, to 86.

When I got the AR, I was pleased to see that it was extremely similar to Nightwing's. Eerily similar. That was the final validation I needed. He could have potential.

The point to this ramble?

Look at race results. Peruse stables via the studbook. Check past performances with Amanda or Darren's programs. If you see a horse that tickles your fancy, send an email and make an offer. Don't wait for someone else to gobble him up before he ever hits the Sales Page.

I heard Amanda mention that she might sell O How Funny once. I waited too long and before he ever went up for public auction, Don at Chiquita Lodge was the new owner. That was an opportunity missed.

There are horses that are diamonds in the rough, and they are in plentiful supply. Go find them. They may not all be superstars, but hey, someone's gotta win those Gr2 and Gr3 races, right?

PSR Update - 2010 YTD

We have garnered just one win in our first 10 starts. While not terrible, it is a bit disappointing. With all of our top runners seeing action during the first 2 weeks, we had anticipated 3 victories in the early going.

Our PSR numbers to date are solid, but not gaudy. The top speed figure to date was fashioned by Stowaway, finishing 2nd by a nose with a PSR of 102. Kid Flash, Candle of Life, Union Jack, Confederation, and Big Slick all scored in the 90's, with Confederation getting the only win thus far.

On the other end of the scale, Seven Memory PSR'd at 20. Our lowest speed score in 2 years.

Here is a breakdown year-to-date.

PSR	RACES	PERCENT
120+	0	0%
110-119	0	0%
100-109	1	10%
90-99	5	50%
80-89	2	20%
70-79	1	10%
60-69	0	0%
50-59	0	0%
40-49	0	0%
30-39	0	0%
20-29	1	10%
10-19	0	0%
Below 0	0	0%

Race Results for Weeks 3 & 4

With a record of 5-1-1-1, we had mixed results in weeks 3 and 4. A couple horses looked very good, and one horse looked very bad.

Starting with the good news, our newcomer from FDL, Confederation picked up an easy win in the 9 furlong Canadian Turf Handicap. Confederation typically ran at longer distances last season, but we wanted to try to shorten him up a bit to try to keep him fresh. He trailed the field then quickly moved into the lead with a couple furlongs to go, then loped home for the victory.

Stowaway, our white sprinter, finished second to Handsome Problem in the Palos Verdes Handicap. Stowaway was charging hard at the finish and just missed winning by a nose. This horse has speed and consistency and will be a force this season.

Our hopes for victory in the San Marcos Handicap were dashed by a bad trip for Union Jack. He was caught in traffic along the entire back stretch, falling well behind the lead horses. By the time he came clear, he was too far back to make a run at the eventual winner, Flow Diagram. He ended up 3rd behind Taj Mahal.

Sitio Estrategico finished 6th in the Warwick Farm Spring Cup in a field of 8. He looked like he just didn't want to run, in fact, the jockey commented afterwards that even the whip would not get extra effort from Sitio on this day.

The most disappointing result was the last place finish by Seven Memory in the San Fernando BC Stakes. The 8.5 furlongs is very obviously too much for him. He faded in severe fashion after 6 furlongs. He'll get a long rest and will compete at 5-7 furlongs exclusively from now on.

Otsego acquires 3yo colt

Chancellorsville, the 3yo bay colt bred by Stonewall Stables and previously owned by Port Pirie Racing, has been purchased for $200,000. This colt is by Nightwing out of Plenty of Grace and currently has a record of 3-0-0-0.

We had a need for another 3yo and this colts parentage made him very desirable for Otsego Farms.

2yo Bane Waits For Opportunity

Our first Nightwing foal was Night Thrasher (Nightwing x Different). His debut was highly anticipated because of our great affection for the big fellow. Night Thrasher did not develop as we had hoped and was sold midway through his first season.

Coming soon to a track near you, our second Nightwing colt, Bane (Nightwing x Plenty Of Light) will make his first start.

Also a early maturing horse, Bane will make his first start within the next month. Unlike his half-brother, Bane prefers a lot of distance, which makes him more like his sire, who ran comfortably up to 16 furlongs. Plenty of Light performed at high levels up to 12 furlongs.

It seems like the War Machine filly, Rogue, has received most of the attention, but our 2yo bay colt Bane has the pedigree and talent to make a name for himself as well.

Otsego 2010 season begins with little fanfare

Five horses went to post and only 2 hit the board in the opening week. Overall, our record of 5-0-1-1 can best be described as disappointing.

Future broodmare Affirm Gal looked decidedly mediocre with her 8th place finish in the San Gorgonio Handicap. She broke rather poorly then simply showed little interest. Heavy favorite Scenic Sheba was the easy winner.

Big Slick also looked sluggish with his 8th place finish in the Golden Gate Derby. He went off at 5-1, making him one of the favorites, but didn't show much, slipping back to the middle of the pack and staying there for the entire race. It may be time for us to lower our expectations. We thought he may possibly be Derby-worthy. Perhaps not.

King of the Sea completed our trifecta of 8th place finishes in the Aqueduct Stakes. He was actually running well and had begun to make a move when he was trapped behind the injured Fender 5yo Poseidon's Gift. King was forced way back, and was unable to recover.

Candle of Life went off as a 17-1 underdog in the Broward Handicap and came up with a surprising 3rd place finish. If the race had been a 16th shorter, he would have finished 2nd. The stretch run featured a questionable jockey tactic as Candle of Life cut off eventual winner Smart Habit. There was no inquiry.

Ultra-consistent Kid Flash finished 2nd in the Premiere Stakes. The Kid continues to hit the board in steady fashion. He'll compete in mostly Gr2 races this year, with perhaps the occasional foray into Gr1 territory, if we find a suitable field.

Crowded 2yo races are not in the cards...

Everyone is understandably curious about their new 2yo racers. We all want to get them on the track as soon as possible to satisfy that curiosity.

However, there are only two age-appropriate races in the first weekend. That means crowded fields, which means Otsego Farms will not participate. As of this writing, a week before raceday, the fields stand at 14 for the Lightning Stakes and 13 horses for the Ungraded Allowance. They will both most certainly have 20 racers by the entry cutoff on Thursday night.

There are some races for which I will endure a large field. The Kentucky Derby or Dubai World Cup come to mind. But I will not subject my horses to a chaotic 20 horse field in their first race for a measly $25,000 purse.

I expect my 2yo's will sit out the first few weeks of the season. By then, the initial crush to race will have subsided somewhat. which will hopefully translate into more reasonable fields.

5 Questions for Otsego Farms for 2010

Overall, I'm very optimistic about the upcoming racing season. However, there are a few questions that could affect just how successful 2010 will be:

1. Have we invested too heavily in veteran racers? It is possible that Doomsday, Affirm Gal, King of the Sea, and Union Jack are all past their prime. I would say that the best candidates for an ability drop-off are Doomsday and Affirm Gal. We'll keep a close eye on their performance and race them sparingly if performance starts to wane. We are pretty confident that King of the Sea and Union Jack have at least another year in them.
2. Will the relative lack of filly and mare racers be problematic? We have only 2 females in our string of 16 racers. They are Affirm Gal and the 2yo Rogue. We had a very similar situation last season, beginning the year with 3 female racers, Nova, Lady Katherine, and Dragon Force, and ending up with just one. Frankly, we didn't think it was a problem then, or now.
3. Will the lack of 3yo racers be problematic? This is a bit of an issue. Selling Night Thrasher and Dragon Force and not replacing them with same-age horses has left us very short for the lucrative 3yo races in 2010. Just two out of 16 of our racers are 3yo's, Big Slick and Mister Fantastic. We do like both of these horses though and we think that Big Slick in particular may be Derby-worthy if he can stay healthy early in the season.
4. Does Confederation still have what it takes to win? One of the most successful stables in the game, FDL Lodge, may have felt that Confederation had reached the end of the line. After looking at the statistics, I had to disagree. I felt that a $400,000 outlay for a horse that won $1.6 million last season, in impressive fashion I might add, was a great investment. I think that Confederation was run a little too frequently, and that may have contributed to his multitude of 2nd place finishes. He had a 2009 record of 15-2-7-3. He'll run in about 10 races this year at no farther than 10 furlongs. We predict a fine season.
5. How is Rogue going to perform? This is a question that is very important and also unanswerable. Important because she is War Machine's first baby to hit the track for Otsego Farms, and unanswerable because you just never know with a new racer. Rogue has a very nice AR, with no obvious holes. However, as you all know, it all comes together on the track. I've got my fingers crossed.

Good luck to all, and let's get racing!

War Machine initial crop to hit track soon...

These are the 2yo War Machine offspring that hit the track in 2010:

• A View to a Kill - colt, Bally Doyle
  
• By A nose Jo - filly, Pointgiven
  
• Drop of War - colt, Goforwand
  
• Garson de Garcia - colt, FDL
  
• Rogue - filly, Otsego
  
• Warrior King - colt, Bonai
  
• White War - colt, Rainbow

I've been waiting for this moment for quite a while. The long wait can culminate in joy, or sorrow, depending on how my filly Rogue, and in fact, all of the above horses perform.

Being a successful stud is a very dicey proposition. A couple "bad" crops and the luster of even a big name like War Machine may suffer. As a result, I'm on pins and needles with regard to all of these horses.

Unlike many top stallions, War Machine has a limited number of offspring to carry his torch. I've tried to limit the pairings to just 5 per season, and I have been mostly successful. In three breeding seasons, there have been just 17 War Machine foals (12 colts, 5 fillies). Fewer foals means fewer opportunities for a an offspring to make a splash.

So, I'll be watching these 2yo's very carefully to see how they perform. Best of luck!

Spin the breeding wheel....

Three foals were bred in 2009 and the results, while satisfactory, were somewhat unexpected.

Big Easy, the consummate miler, was matched with Shadowcat. As a result, we were expecting an all-surface sprinter/miler. The filly Huntress was produced with the following attributes:

Huntress (2010), 16.3 hand chestnut filly
By Big Easy out of Shadowcat by The Wicked North

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse is good on soft dirt.
This horse is ok in mud.
This horse is good on hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse is of average soundness.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse looks like it can run at classic distances.

An all-surface Classic distance filly. Not exactly what the doctor ordered, but we'll take it.

Nightwing and Shattered Record produced an outstanding colt last season in Shatterstar, so we decided to try that exact match again. The parents were both long distance runners, so we expected more of the same. A filly named Starfire was the result:

Starfire (2010), 15.3 hand bay filly
By Nightwing out of Shattered Record by Black Shatter

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse is ok on soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has a mind of its own and likes to run at its own pace.
This horse appears to be primarily a miler.

Again, a bit of a surprise to see a miler, but overall we like what we see.

Lastly, War Machine was paired with Nova in a combination of speed plus speed. I thought hard about this match because I normally do not combine sprinters with routers. But, even though Nova raced primarily at 6-7 furlongs, she was rated up to 9 furlongs and performed well at those distances later in her career. I was hoping for a Classic colt (after getting fillies in WM's first two years at stud), but got the following:

Ultron (2010), 17 hand dark brown colt
By War Machine out of Nova by Housebuster

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse prefers soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse is poor on hard turf.
This horse is ok on soft turf.
This horse is of average soundness.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse appears to be a sprinter.

Colt, check. Dirt lover, check. Mature quickly, check. Sprinter? I was surprised, but not disappointed. If this colt inherits the speed of his parents, he'll make waves. Maybe we'll be able to stretch him to 8-9 furlongs like his mother?

Stable depth greater than last season

Last season, I mentioned that our racing string had depth of talent. That was true as evidenced by over 60% of our races having PSR's above 90 and 66% of all entries hitting the board.

By making some key acquisitions late last year, and picking up a proven winner during the auction, I suspect that we have even a deeper amount of talent this season, in spite of the retirements of Nova and Big Easy.

Just glancing down the roster, I'd say that we have at least 5 horses that are a threat to win any race they enter. They are Affirm Gal, Union Jack, Confederation, Kid Flash, and Stowaway.

Additionally, there are another 4 horses who have excellent ability and can win at least a couple races each if appropriately placed. They are Doomsday, King of the Sea, Seven Memory, and Big Slick.

Sitio Estratigico and Candle of Life round out the list of veteran racers. They are both capable of winning at least one race each in 2010.

Throw in my talented, but late-maturing 3yo Mister Fantastic and a nice group of 2yo's headed by War Machine's daughter Rogue, and you can see why I am optimistic.

Watch out for Stowaway

This 4yo white colt has been very lightly run so far in his career with his current record standing at 7-2-2-1. He'll get a better chance to show his stuff this year with a schedule of 8-10 races.

Purchased in mid-season 2009 for $310,000 from History's Own, Stowaway went on to have a record of 3-2-1-0 for Otsego Farms. His speed scores of 120, 92, and 105 bode well for his future success.

This horse's speed and consistency are his primary attributes. He can race on soft turf, but will compete strictly on dirt in 2010 as that is his preferred surface.

We are still very excited about this horse and feel very fortunate to have him. We think he will be a steady earner in Gr2 and Gr3 races, with an occasional stab at a Gr1 if appropriate.

2010 Stable Goals

We've got 16 racers this year, the most in our history. That is very exciting and virtually assures us that we will have at least a few races to enjoy every week.

We've gotten a little more patient every year and that culminated in just 85 entries last season with 13 racers. Of that 85, we gathered 19 wins, 20 places, and 17 shows; a 66% on-the-board percentage.

We anticipate entering between 100 and 110 races in 2010. Our official goal for wins is 25, but we expect the number could range as low as 20. Anything less than 20 wins would be considered a disappointment. If we could maintain the 66% OTB ratio we would obviously be very pleased.

Best of luck to everyone during the new racing season.

Mister Fantastic: "He's almost ready"

That is the recent assessment made by our trainers concerning the late-blooming 3yo bay colt, Mister Fantastic.

By Dayjur out of Exotic Wood, he has speed in his blood. However, he has shown a little more stamina than either of his parents, leading us to believe that he will eventually compete in races as long as 10 furlongs.

Knowing he wasn't ready, but wanting to test him a bit, we sent MF out to race once as a 2yo in the 5 furlong Cooper Stakes. He finished last in a field of 7 horses with a PSR of 63. Not up to our stable goal of at least 90, but slightly encouraging nonetheless.

We've decided to continue training for awhile yet. He'll hit the track again probably in late March or April.

Rogue: Itching to run....

Daughter of War Machine. Half-sister to Union Jack.

The mighty War Machine's first batch of offspring will hit the track this season and this little chestnut filly is ready to roll. Maturing early, we expect her to run in the neighborhood of 8 races in 2010.

Rogue likes classic distances, just like daddy. But in addition to liking the dirt, this filly will also run on turf, which is something that War Machine preferred not to do. That little bit of added flexibility ought to help immensely.

She's brown. She's fast. She's gonna kick your ass.

2010 New Additions

Three new horses will don the blue and gold of Otsego Farms in 2010.

An end-of-season private transaction brought the 4yo colt Confederation over from FDL Lodge. This is a proven racer with a career record of 23-4-8-5 and earnings of $1,744,500. We anticipate reducing his workload a bit, maybe down to 10 races. We're thinking that earnings of $500,000+ are attainable in 2010.

The 2009 year-end auction recently concluded with just token involvement by Otsego Farms. We picked up a 2yo colt named Born to Fly and the fine 5yo mare Affirm Gal.

Affirm Gal has a career record of 15-6-3-2 with earnings of $647,625. We feel she'll have another year of racing, then it'll be off to the breeding barn to join Shattered Record and Nova.