PSR Update - 2010 YTD

With 33 races in the books and only 2 measly wins to show for it, I was expecting my PSR's to be much lower than average. I was duly surprised when I used Amanda's PP spreadsheet, and discovered that my PSR's are actually pretty darn good.

In fact, they look very similar to what I produced last season. I'm guessing that the competition is tougher this year. I've exceeded 90 in 58% of my starts, but that has not equated to Wins, or even Places for that matter. I've finished 1st or 2nd in just 7 of 33 starts.

The breakdown:

PSR	RACES	PERCENT
120+	0	0%
110-119	0	0%
100-109	6	18%
90-99	13	39%
80-89	7	21%
70-79	3	9%
60-69	2	6%
50-59	0	0%
40-49	0	0%
30-39	0	0%
20-29	2	6%
10-19	0	0%
Below 0	0	0%

Race Results for Weeks 13 & 14

Our disappointing season continued with a weekly record of 8-0-0-3. We have made a decision to temporarily lower our sights regarding race grades. With very few exceptions, higher graded races will be off limits until we can string together a few victories. Union Jack and Confederation will be the only racers that we will enter in appropriate Grade One and Grade Two races.

Hopefully, our 2yo's will breathe some excitement into our stable when they start competing in another couple of months.

A breakdown of the races for this past week is given below:

Affirm Gal - 3rd Black Helen Handicap - 96 PSR
A decent run for a Show finish just a length off the lead. Still has the speed to contend.

Sitio Estrategico - 6th Queen Elizabeth Stakes - 92 PSR
Best PSR of the season but still 32 lengths back. Will retreat to Gr3 or less in future.

Candle of Life - 3rd Shenandoah Downs Allowance - 109 PSR
Highest PSR of career only good for 3rd place. Continues to perform well and has talent.

Confederation - 3rd Mackinnon Stakes - 73 PSR
Did not like the soft going. Speed was off but still managed a decent 3rd place finish.

Stowaway - 7th Dubai Golden Shaheen - 102 PSR
Showed speed but was outclassed in this high profile sprint.

Kid Flash - 4th Salinger Stakes - 101 PSR
Ventured into Gr1 for first time and ran well but couldn't hit the board.

Big Slick - 6th United Emirates Derby - 74 PSR
Perhaps not as talented as we expected. Now winless in 9 career starts.

Chancellorsville - 6th Flamingo Stakes - 65 PSR
Looked completely uninterested. Will take some time off to reevaluate.

Otsego Kingpin jets from Dubai to Hollywood

Otsego Farms horse baron Jim Webber, back from a disappointing trip to Dubai, made a detour to Hollywood to visit friends before making his way back to Michigan.

Rumored for years to be coveting the Southern California lifestyle, Jim quickly dispelled the notion of a permanent move to Los Angeles. "My roots run deep in Michigan and that's where my horses are, so that's where I'll stay", said Webber when asked about a potential move to SoCal. However, he was seen with a prominent local Realtor touring several multi-million dollar homes in the Brentwood neighborhood.

"Just getting decorating idea's", Jim said with a smile when he was spotted coming out of a $5.6 million dollar mansion.

Eureka Racing - Otsego Farms transaction announced amid Dubai festivities

Lise Harrison, owner of Eureka Racing and Jim Webber, owner of Otsego Farms held a press conference in the Burj Al Arab hotel to announce the acquisition of the 5yo stallion True Ensign by Otsego Farms.

Webber expressed genuine excitement at the prospect of obtaining this accomplished veteran racer, stating "This horse is a wonderful addition to our stable. He is a consummate professional and we feel he can contribute significantly to our stable reputation and to our bottom line".

True Ensign has a career record of 25-7-4-2 with career earnings of $2,280,350. He is by Ensign Day out of Alymiss by Turkoman. True Ensign prefers dirt tracks and distances of 9 to 12 furlongs. He has exceeded 100 PSR in 3 of his last 4 races.

Ms. Harrison, and Mr. Webber are both in Dubai with horses they have racing this weekend. Eureka has the 2yo filly Exotica running in the Dubai Juvenile and Flow Diagram, the star 6yo mare, running in the Sheema Classic. Otsego Farms has 4yo colt Stowaway entered in the Golden Shaheen.

The Stars Come Out

In Dubai for the Golden Shaheen with 4yo colt Stowaway, Otsego Farms owner/trainer Jim Webber was spotted rubbing elbows with celebrities of business, the sports world, and the silver screen.

Photographed here with Jessica Alba, Jim had earlier been seen with New York Yankee shortstop Derek Jeter, real estate mogul Donald Trump, and fellow horseman Bill Miller and Darren Young, owners of Stonewall Stables and Kings Park respectively.

Asked if he thought Stowaway had a chance to win, Jim was quoted as saying, "It could happen".

Drastic measures needed?

Here we are, almost a quarter of the way through the 2010 racing season and Otsego Farms has just 2 wins on the books. Before the season began, I predicted 20-25 victories. Simple math has me projecting at 8-10. Yikes.

What can be done, other than jumping off a cliff?

I've been scouring the sales page and a couple horses looked somewhat interesting. But I didn't have an overwhelming urge to own any of them, so my bidding was half-hearted, and ultimately unsuccessful.

I sent some emails asking about the availability of a couple horses. My offers were politely rebuked.

I may be overreacting. I really feel that Union Jack and Confederation will both have solid seasons. Probably 3-4 wins each.

I love Stowaway. He's got speed and if I can follow my instincts and enter him in just Gr2 and Gr3 races, he should also have a handful of wins. By the way, I have entered him in the Golden Shaheen next weekend, so you can see how well I'm following my instincts.

Doomsday and Affirm Gal both have gas left in the tank. Heck, Doomsday put up a 101 PSR this weekend and still had his 15 race in-the-money streak snapped.

Kid Flash is also a decent horse who can win if he is correctly placed.

My insecurities start with the rest of my stable. Seven Memory, Sitio Estrategico, Candle of Life, and King of the Sea are all on thin ice. Actually Candle's ice is a bit thicker. I really like that horse for some reason. He has ingratiated himself to me somehow, just like Heavens Hall did a couple of years ago. The others though have not been performing well and I've been thinking that a change of venue may suit them.

My 3yo's Big Slick, Mister Fantastic, and Chancellorsville all get a pass due to inexperience.

I realize I've been rambling. Just thinking out loud really. The point is, somethings gotta give because I'm not liking the start I'm having this year. I'll give it a couple more weeks and if some wins don't materialize, I'll make some changes. If you're reading this and have any ideas or suggestions, I'm all ears.

Race Results for Weeks 11 & 12

Performance for the 2010 season has been much lower than anticipated. We had just three runners this week and the results were disappointing across the board.

Seven Memory ran in the 7 furlong Richard Ellis Stakes. I dropped him to this distance after he faltered badly in his last outing at 8.5 furlongs. He started slowly, then moved into the middle of the pack during mid-race. It looked like he was beginning to make a move when his jockey unexpectedly pulled up. Seven ran the last couple of furlongs at effort level 3, finishing 8th in a field of 10.

The 5.5 furlong Schillaci Stakes should not have posed any stamina problems for Doomsday, but after a fast start, it was a slow fade all the way back to 5th place. This poor finish snapped a 15 race in-the-money streak for the 6yo stallion.

The Cox Plate was a race that I thought Union Jack could win. It was a smallish field at just 6 runners, with Scenic Sheba, Arctic Memories, and Union Jack being the favorites, in that order. Jack ran in his usual mid-pack style and was starting to inch towards the leaders when he ran into the back of a fading Thunderdome. Our jockey had plenty of time to avoid this pitfall but did not react until it was too late. The loss of momentum upset Jack's stride and he had to work to get back in front of Maximize for a 3rd place finish.

Race Results for Weeks 9 & 10

A win by Union Jack was one of the bright spots in an otherwise lackluster weekend of racing. In 5 starts, we could only muster a record of 5-1-1-0.

Stable stalwart Union Jack scored his 12th victory in the 10 furlong Turnbull Stakes. That victory moved him past Nightwing into 3rd place among all Otsego Farms racers. War Machine leads the way with 19 wins and Predator had 13.

Underachieving 3yo Big Slick finished a strong 2nd in the inaugural Revenge Stakes behind Bayonet from Snowbank Farm. We are very encouraged by this showing and feel that Big Slick may yet blossom into the racer we think he can be.

Newly acquired Chancellorsville finished 7th in a 10 horse field in the 10 furlong Gr1 Spring Champion Stakes. The grade was a bit of a stretch, but we felt it was a good test at that distance and didn't really anticipate hitting the board. Chance was stretching out at the finish, leading us to believe that he may be able to handle more distance, like his sire Nightwing.

Stowaway finished a disappointing 5th in the 7 furlong San Carlos Handicap. He was leading at 6 furlongs, but faltered and slipped back out of the money.

Five year old Stallion King of the Sea may be nearing the end of the line. His 84 PSR in the Gulfstram Park Handicap marked the 4th straight race under 90. He finished 5th in an 8 horse field and has now failed to earn a check in three straight races.

Otsego Owner Flexes for Photographers

The paparazzi caught Otsego Farms thoroughbred owner Jim Webber on vacation recently and he was gracious enough to pose for photographers.

When asked how he maintained his stunning physique despite his advancing age, Mr. Webber replied, "Clean living, a reasonable diet, 20 miles of running a week, and dynamic tension."

Otsego Farms is best known for the lengendary Triple Crown Winner, War Machine, and other fine racers such as routers Nightwing and Union Jack, and the sprinting mare, Nova,

PSR Update - 2010 YTD

In spite of generally strong PSR's, Otsego Farms has scored just one win in the first 8 weeks of racing. That win was by Confederation in the Canadian Turf Handicap when he had just the 9th best PSR posted by our stable thus far.

In our two best performances this year, Stowaway just missed winning by a nose in the Palos Verdes Handicap when he has a speed score of 102, and Confederation finished second by a neck in the George Main Stakes with a 101.

Here is the full breakdown through 17 races. Statistics are courtesy of Amanda's Past Performances spreadsheet.

PSR	RACES	PERCENT
120+	0	0%
110-119	0	0%
100-109	2	12%
90-99	8	47%
80-89	3	18%
70-79	2	12%
60-69	0	0%
50-59	0	0%
40-49	0	0%
30-39	0	0%
20-29	2	12%
10-19	0	0%
Below 0	0	0%

Ultron revealed!

"Superheroes of Racing"

That was the moniker I used for my stable in the first incarnation of my website. Due to the more cumbersome nature of it's maintenance, the website was abandoned for this blog.

As you may have noticed, the horse names I employ are often Superheroes. In some cases they are also Supervillians.

Case in point, the dark brown colt born in 2010 to War Machine and Nova......Ultron. In Marvel comics, Ultron is an android that believes in the superiority of mechanical entities over humans and organic life in general, and has often endeavored to either exterminate those "lesser" beings or convert them into mechanical forms.

I posted the AR for Ultron some weeks ago. He's a dirt sprinter who hopefully has his parents speed. I just wanted to post the picture of the "real" Ultron, who provided the inspiration for this colts name.

Race Results for Weeks 7 & 8

Another winless weekend left Otsego Farms with a overall year-to-date record of just 17-1-4-3. During game-weeks 7 & 8 we sent five racers to post and came limping home at 5-0-1-1.

Kid Flash went off at 6-1 in the Shannon Stakes and finished a very disappointing 5th. He has been a very consistent on-the-board finisher in the past 2 years, so we are always surprised when he finishes out of the money. The Kid did turn in a respectable 99 PSR however.

Candle of Life finished 4th in a 8.5 furlong Allowance. The oddsmakers did not think much of Candle, sending him off at steep 13-1 odds. A win wasn't in the cards, but a 3rd place finish looked probable as Candle charged, but the jockey chose to ignore an open lane, instead moving behind another horse. His PSR was 89.

Our 5yo mare, Affirm Gal finished 3rd in the Buena Vista Handicap behind dead-heat finishers Annibynnol Meth and Wishings Wells. Affirm Gal sparkled with a 98 PSR.

Sitio Estrategico finished 6th in the 12 furlong Colin Stephens Quality Handicap. It's the third straight poor race by Sitio, so a change in tactics may be in order. PSR was a very ordinary 74.

Confederation just missed a second straight win by finishing second by a neck in the 8 furlong George Main Stakes. The winner, Private Ensign out of Eureka Racing Stables, was carrying only 107 lbs and just plain outkicked Confederation, who was carrying 127 lbs, at the wire. Confederation had a sterling 101 PSR and now has a season record of 2-1-1-0 with earnings of $147,500.

Carefully Investigating All 3yo Filly Offers

I've got three 3yo's and they are all colts.

• Big Slick - Tantalizingly talented but currently not fulfilling expectations.
• Mister Fantastic - Immature and banned from racetrack until further notice.
• Chancellorsville - Just brought aboard and being evaluated.

I need another 3yo to race, a filly, so I can get into the 3+ F&M races. If anyone has a 3yo girl that they'd like to sell, I'd like to discuss it with you. I have just a couple requests:

1. Fewer than 10 career races
2. Ability to hit 80+ PSR on regular basis

You can contact me at mvpcandidate@gmail.com. I've paid an average of $327,500 for the last four non-auction purchases I've made, so I won't stint you on the deal if you've got something that catches my eye.

My 2yo Dilemma - Solved

There has been quite a bit of discussion lately centered on our new crop of 2yo's.

It is the largest group of new racers ever to grace the tracks and stables of Photo-Finish, and the sheer size of this freshman class of horses is causing problems.

We have had just six 2yo races thus far. They have had fields of 20,20,20,19,18,18.

There will be five more 2yo races this weekend. If nothing changes, those fields will be 20,20,20,19,16.

That makes 11 races with an average field size of 19.1 horses.

I'm sure that all of those horses are not maturing early, so many of them shouldn't even be racing yet. But, I do understand the excitement that causes many of us to get those colts and fillies running as soon as possible because I've made every mistake you can possibly make in this game.

However, one mistake I'm not going to make anymore will be running my 2yo's too early. Our stable has made the decision to hold all 2yo's off the track until July 1st each season, whether they are maturing early or not.

I see a couple benefits from this strategy....

• Avoid 20 horse fields as much as possible
• Avoid early and possibly unfair judgements, which may lead to disassociation with a particular horse

The 2yo's I have are:

1. Bane - Matures quickly. Likes a lot of distance.
2. Born to Fly - Matures quickly. Sprinter.
3. Quicksilver - Matures quickly. Sprinter.
4. Rogue - Matures quickly. Classic distances.

They could all be running early this season, and in fact I did try to enter a couple, but quickly pulled them when the fields got out of hand. They will all continue to train hard, but will not see the track until high summer.

Race Results for Weeks 5 & 6

We had just two racers this week, 6yo Doomsday in the Tramway Handicap and 3yo Mister Fantastic in the San Vincente Stakes.

Doomsday extended his on-the-board streak to 11 straight with a solid second place finish. As is his habit, he jumped to the early lead, but the race-high 128lbs eventually wore him down. He faltered in the final furlong and was beaten by 2 lengths by Caledonia's The Majestic. Doomsday continues to show good speed, posting a PSR of 99.

Mister Fantastic ran a horrific race, scoring a 20 PSR. He broke well, but began losing ground almost immediately, eventually finishing last, 33 lengths off the winner.

As I have said in the past, this horse has a very smart AR. Unfortunately, as we all know, that and $1 will get you a cup of coffee. He is still immature, so we will give him the benefit of the doubt. However, he will not race again until June or July at the earliest.

Idle thoughts about acquiring horses...

I bought the 3yo colt Chancellorsville the other day from Matt at Port Pirie. I sent Matt an email and because he was looking to open up some stall space, he humored me by letting him go for a nominal amount.

I've actually had him in my sights for awhile, primarily because he is an offspring of Nightwing. In fact, I think I spoke to the breeder, Bill at Stonewall, about acquiring him on at least one occasion when he was newly bred or perhaps when he was a yearling.

Chance has had a short and uneventful career so far, so when I reported the purchase here in the blog as a matter of normal procedure, I expected the purchase to go by unoticed.

Then, out of the blue, DJ of Under The Weeping Moon, who's opinion I value highly, commented that he thought Chancellorsville could "do some nice things this year".

Well, that sat very well with me, because I wholeheartedly agree.

Because he was lightly raced as a 2yo (Matt knows what he's doing), I figured he was the late maturing type. His breeding is impeccable (Bill knows what he's doing too). And, as a cherry on top, his PSR's have been improving from 48, to 82, to 86.

When I got the AR, I was pleased to see that it was extremely similar to Nightwing's. Eerily similar. That was the final validation I needed. He could have potential.

The point to this ramble?

Look at race results. Peruse stables via the studbook. Check past performances with Amanda or Darren's programs. If you see a horse that tickles your fancy, send an email and make an offer. Don't wait for someone else to gobble him up before he ever hits the Sales Page.

I heard Amanda mention that she might sell O How Funny once. I waited too long and before he ever went up for public auction, Don at Chiquita Lodge was the new owner. That was an opportunity missed.

There are horses that are diamonds in the rough, and they are in plentiful supply. Go find them. They may not all be superstars, but hey, someone's gotta win those Gr2 and Gr3 races, right?

PSR Update - 2010 YTD

We have garnered just one win in our first 10 starts. While not terrible, it is a bit disappointing. With all of our top runners seeing action during the first 2 weeks, we had anticipated 3 victories in the early going.

Our PSR numbers to date are solid, but not gaudy. The top speed figure to date was fashioned by Stowaway, finishing 2nd by a nose with a PSR of 102. Kid Flash, Candle of Life, Union Jack, Confederation, and Big Slick all scored in the 90's, with Confederation getting the only win thus far.

On the other end of the scale, Seven Memory PSR'd at 20. Our lowest speed score in 2 years.

Here is a breakdown year-to-date.

PSR	RACES	PERCENT
120+	0	0%
110-119	0	0%
100-109	1	10%
90-99	5	50%
80-89	2	20%
70-79	1	10%
60-69	0	0%
50-59	0	0%
40-49	0	0%
30-39	0	0%
20-29	1	10%
10-19	0	0%
Below 0	0	0%

Race Results for Weeks 3 & 4

With a record of 5-1-1-1, we had mixed results in weeks 3 and 4. A couple horses looked very good, and one horse looked very bad.

Starting with the good news, our newcomer from FDL, Confederation picked up an easy win in the 9 furlong Canadian Turf Handicap. Confederation typically ran at longer distances last season, but we wanted to try to shorten him up a bit to try to keep him fresh. He trailed the field then quickly moved into the lead with a couple furlongs to go, then loped home for the victory.

Stowaway, our white sprinter, finished second to Handsome Problem in the Palos Verdes Handicap. Stowaway was charging hard at the finish and just missed winning by a nose. This horse has speed and consistency and will be a force this season.

Our hopes for victory in the San Marcos Handicap were dashed by a bad trip for Union Jack. He was caught in traffic along the entire back stretch, falling well behind the lead horses. By the time he came clear, he was too far back to make a run at the eventual winner, Flow Diagram. He ended up 3rd behind Taj Mahal.

Sitio Estrategico finished 6th in the Warwick Farm Spring Cup in a field of 8. He looked like he just didn't want to run, in fact, the jockey commented afterwards that even the whip would not get extra effort from Sitio on this day.

The most disappointing result was the last place finish by Seven Memory in the San Fernando BC Stakes. The 8.5 furlongs is very obviously too much for him. He faded in severe fashion after 6 furlongs. He'll get a long rest and will compete at 5-7 furlongs exclusively from now on.

Otsego acquires 3yo colt

Chancellorsville, the 3yo bay colt bred by Stonewall Stables and previously owned by Port Pirie Racing, has been purchased for $200,000. This colt is by Nightwing out of Plenty of Grace and currently has a record of 3-0-0-0.

We had a need for another 3yo and this colts parentage made him very desirable for Otsego Farms.

2yo Bane Waits For Opportunity

Our first Nightwing foal was Night Thrasher (Nightwing x Different). His debut was highly anticipated because of our great affection for the big fellow. Night Thrasher did not develop as we had hoped and was sold midway through his first season.

Coming soon to a track near you, our second Nightwing colt, Bane (Nightwing x Plenty Of Light) will make his first start.

Also a early maturing horse, Bane will make his first start within the next month. Unlike his half-brother, Bane prefers a lot of distance, which makes him more like his sire, who ran comfortably up to 16 furlongs. Plenty of Light performed at high levels up to 12 furlongs.

It seems like the War Machine filly, Rogue, has received most of the attention, but our 2yo bay colt Bane has the pedigree and talent to make a name for himself as well.