House of M, Crossbones run. Mixed reviews..

Ettore of the prolific Olmo Dorato said, "Ho visto la corsa di House of M, sono pronto a scommettere che è un futuro champion!!"  Very encouraging words, because we know that man may be the best judge of talent in Photo-Finish.  I certainly hope he is right.  Thanks Ettore!

House of M did look solid in her debut.  The HRF ratings of EX/VG matched those of her sire War Machine, and she ran a steady race.  

She looked ready to stretch out but was boxed in for the majority of the race, finishing 4th in a field of 12.  She'll stay exclusively on dirt, but probably won't run again at less than 8 furlongs.

Crossbones looked less impressive.  He started slowly, and lagged in the back of the pack the entire race.  

We'll try him on turf and at a couple different distances to see if he has any potential.  With limited stall space for racers, he gets about 4-5 opportunities to show that he can compete before we give up on him.

Two to debut. How will they do? Haven't a clue.

Would it help if I knelt in a pew?

Filly House of M (War Machine x Classical Music) and colt Crossbones (Nightwing x In Spirit) will both make their racing debut's this weekend.

To say I'm nervous would be an understatement.  Even though I have paid close attention to all of my breeding matchups, I really have had minimal success over the years.  And, with my stable being somewhat non-competitive at the moment, my hopes hinge mightily on the youngsters who are coming up this year and next.

Nebula (Dubai Gold x Nova) had a decent start with a 3rd place at the William Tell Stakes a couple weekends ago, so that is encouraging.

We feel House of M has the tools to be very good, and her resemblance to War Machine is striking, making her a sentimental favorite.  However, her dam Classical Music has had little success as a broodmare.  In fact, two of her recent current prodigy,  Beethoven and Freedom, can only be described as very poor racers.  Hopefully, M can break that trend.  She'll run in a 12-horse field; 5 furlongs on her preferred surface of dirt.

Crossbones may have the genetic potential to succeed.  His dam has only a single offspring racing, Majestic Spirit, but the 3yo filly has impressed early with a record of 10-3-2-1 and earnings over $400,000.  He'll run in a 9-horse field over 5 furlongs on dirt.

So this weekend will determine, in a large way, whether the season will be a building block for the future, or simply a stepping stone until next year.

Flying blind with a new filly...

Two-year old House of M may make her debut this weekend and I haven't got a clue what to expect.

Out of Classical Music by War Machine, the filly has a very strong AR, but what does that really tell you?  Nothing, that's what.  Here it is:

House of M (2011), 15.2 hand chestnut filly

By War Machine out of Classical Music by Black Tie Affair

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.

This horse prefers hard dirt.

This horse prefers soft dirt.

This horse is good in mud.

This horse is ok on hard turf.

This horse is poor on soft turf.

This horse is of average soundness.

This horse has average ratability.

This horse likes a lot of distance.

She likes dirt and distance.  Exactly what I expect and hope for from a foal by War Machine.  But this tells me nothing about her real potential.  Is she fast or slow?  Does she have courage?  What is her best distance?

As I said on the forum, by the time a horse is a 2yo, we should know more than she likes dirt and distance.  As someone said, if that's all my trainer can tell me after 12 months of day-to-day training, he's fired!

How about something like this for a slightly modified AR?

House of M (2011), 15.2 hand chestnut filly

By War Machine out of Classical Music by Black Tie Affair

Mature quickly.

Average performance peak.

Prefers hard dirt.

Prefers soft dirt.

Good in mud.

OK on hard turf.

Poor on soft turf.

Rest need: Machine

Top speed rating of 90.

Best at 10 furlongs.

Potential: 82

The last rating is purely fictitious.  It would be nice if there was a mathematical formula whereby an amalgamation of PF data is condensed into a single number that would try to predict the racing potential of a given horse.  It could be done, I'm sure.  You'd have to take into account, speed, courage, durability, consistancy, and all the other salient attributes.  Deductions would have to be factored in for things like poor break speed for sprinters, poor acceleration, and injury potential.  I have no doubt that one of our gifted PF participants could come up with something that would suffice.

This is just a quick example off the top of my head.  The truth is, we need something better, AR-wise,  than we have now.  Anyone else have any ideas?

Fun Video #6

One of my favorite scenes from one of my favorite movies...

Triple Crown in jeopardy?

Now hold on a cotton-picking minute!

It seems like many people had assumed that Krazy Sheikh was going to win the American Triple Crown this year.  Obviously EC at Rainbow who owns the powerful colt Gradient didn't get that memo.  

The 17.1 hand black colt nipped Port Pirie's Two Thousand at the wire to win the 11th Kentucky Derby, and now the question is: can he win the Triple Crown?

With his excellent stamina, (Otsego Insider http://otsegofarms.blogspot.com/2009/07/ummm-that-horse-looks-awful-strong.html) Gradient has to be considered the heavy favorite at the 12-furlong Belmont Stakes, but can he win the obligatory Preakness first?

The 9.5-furlong Preakness probably favors the speed horses like Two Thousand and Krazy Sheikh, but based on his stunning time in the Derby, you obviously can't rule Gradient out.

If he wins the Preakness, he is probably a shoo-in to join War Machine as a winner of the American Triple Crown.

Anybody seen my pitchfork?

I was speaking with the esteemed Mike Noble of Noble Farms today regarding the comments in the "Yes, I'm going there..." thread in the Photo Finish forum.

Mike and I don't actually talk that often, but in light of the flammability of that topic and the comments it was generating, I simply had to talk to somebody and he was convenient.

As we discussed our opinions, and the predictability of some of the other responses, he made the comment to me, and I paraphrase, "You used to be considered a nice guy, and you're not (considered) nice anymore."

Well folks, that cut me.  Deep.

Trust me, I am still a nice guy.  I'm just a nice guy with opinions.  I say what I think and I don't say things I don't mean.

The truth is, I always have the best interest of Photo Finish at heart.  No kidding.  Do you think I would have stuck around for almost 7 years, ten racing seasons, and written hundreds of articles in this blog if I didn't care?

I make a lot of comments and suggestions.  There are probably people out there who wish I would shut the hell up sometimes.  But I won't because the exchange of ideas is important to the evolution of this game.

There are many who are happy with the status quo.  I'm not.  If new ideas and the lobbying for rule changes upset the general populace...sorry.  But things move slowly here at Photo Finish; that is one of it's charms I suppose.  So, changes won't catch you off guard.

So, if being more verbal than the average PF participant makes me into the bad guy, I guess I can live with that.  Just remember, I'm not really a bad guy.  I'm a good guy who's willing to put on the black hat occasionally for the good of Photo Finish.

It gets earlier every year...

We are just in weeks 19-20 of the racing season and already the stud advertisements for next year have begun.  Time sure flies, huh?

Foxie fired the first salvo a month or so ago when she began lining up suitors for Jenny's My Gal.  Then just recently, a flurry of activity began with Hoosier Daddy, Bally Doyle, and Oak Tree all commencing to make arrangements for their fine studs.

I was able to get my name on two stud lists.  Our Differences will pair up with either Nova or Immortal, and A View to a Kill will match with Shattered Record.

Interestingly, the stud usage comes with a proviso in the case of three of these four stables. 

Foxie's Lodge is only accepting list mares for Jenny's My Gal.  And, in some cases, Bally Doyle and Oak Tree studs are both open to approved stables only.

I have absolutely no problem with either case.  In fact, I've been doing it myself, unofficially of course, for the past couple seasons.

I don't charge stud fees for War Machine, Nightwing, and Union Jack.  As it says on my blog, they are available only on a quid pro quo basis.  Translation:  If you have a stud I want to use, or if we have had successful dealings in the past, or if I like you, you can use my studs.

I don't even advertise my boys anymore.  If they don't get used outside of Otsego Farms, so be it.

By the way, I'll be retiring Arctic Fox after this season.  Is it too early to send the year-end report to Laurie?

The greatest race of all-time.

I've watched virtually every one of the races that my horses have run, along with hundreds of other big races over my 10 seasons in Photo Finish.  To this day, I still  contend that the greatest race I've ever seen was #465, the 8.5f Fountain of Youth Stakes on 2-21-04. 

It was a stiff field containing such Photo Finish icons as Dubai Gold, Thief of Hearts, Troll Tower, and Blushing Approval.  As a result, Nightwing was a 14-1 longshot.  Even Argonath, Spendthrift, and Swaleaway all had better odds from the bookmakers.  It was Nightwing's third career race and his first try on dirt.

He was post position 7 in the 11-horse field and quickly fell back to trail the field when they got underway.

1F - 12 lengths off the leader.

2F - 15 lengths back.

3F - 15 lengths back as they come out of the first turn.

4F - Still 15 lengths off the pace.

5F - 13 lengths back after having made up a little ground.

6F - Still 13 lengths back midway through the back turn.  Just 2.5 furlongs to go.

7F - Sweeping up and past a group but still 9 lengths back.  1.5 furlongs left.

7.5F - Battling Troll Tower for third.  Dubai Gold and Thief of Hearts are still 7 lengths ahead with just 1F to go.

8F - Blows past Troll Tower and making up ground on the tired leaders, but still 5 lengths back with just 1/16th of a mile to go.

To cap off a miraculous comeback, Nightwing went to the rail and showed incredible heart by running down Dubai Gold to win by a short length.

I have never seen a more exciting finish or a gutsier performance and that's why, in my opinion, it ranks as the best PF race of all-time.

Fun Video #5

You might recognize this tune since it was the theme song of the series "Jockey's".  Incredible hand work.  Kinda slow through the first 45 seconds or so.  Stick with it.

Aucun sens de l'humour ?

The Photo Finish Survival Pool is supposed to be fun right?  Or, was there a memo that I didn't get?

A couple of harmless comments on the thread, followed by a pick made purely in jest by yours truly, brought out the inner Napoleon of contest administrator Deeds of Laurabelle Racing Stable yesterday.

Granted, I admit that I made the choice of Race 627 Alytrain purely in an attempt to get under Deeds' skin.  I was offended on some level by his ALL-CAPS tirade about "not posting there if it wasn't a pick" and "what a pain in the ass it was gonna be to scroll through to get the picks".

I honestly thought he would chuckle at the Alytrain pick and realize that it's all just in fun.  Whoopsy!

Instead, I get the following private message, "Seriously Jim, no need for your shit on the thread. I could care less if you want to play, but don't waste your own time putting Alytrain and anything else for that matter. You're out, for good. And putting it nicely, you're a dick. GFY champ" 

OMG!  I'm out!  For good!  And I'm a dick!

If you wish to comment, please make a vote.  Is Jim a dick?  Or, is Jim OK?  Thanks.  : )

11:58 am. Better buy Fox.

Some people may call it a cheap shot. 

Fox, a 12yo broodmare that I have always liked, has been sitting out there for a week with a $10,000 bid from Glenmore Park.  I had decided several days ago that I was gonna have her, but I didn't want to tip my hand too soon and cause a bidding war.

I'm sure that Glenmore was feeling quite confident since there has been no bidding activity at all since he placed the bid of $10k.  I've been patient however, hovering just under the surface of the water, like a crocodile waiting for a wildebeest to lower it's snout for a drink.

At precisely 11:58, giving myself a minute or two leeway to account for timing differences, my bid of $10,100 was placed and moments later the sale was over with the name Otsego Farms stamped firming on the bill of sale.

I was looking for another mare to complete my compliment of 10 broodmares, and she fit the bill nicely.  It is also a reunion of sorts as Fox is the mother of Arctic Fox, who is currently racing at Otsego Farms and may very well retire to the breeding barn herself next season.

Fun Video #4

A clip from one of the best movies of all-time.  From 1990, Treasure Island, starring Charleton Heston and Christian Bale.  Truly a classic...

Mediocre foals. Thou art mine, and I liketh it not.

My first few years in PF, I just dabbled in breeding.  I usually produced just one or perhaps two foals a year.

Since I ratcheted up production to four per year, and then upwards further to ten per year, I have had the distinction of producing middle-of-the-road racers.  Their not worthless, but their certainly not overly successful either.

How about Shatterstar?  Nightwing x Shattered Record is a nice match of two successful racers.  I get a nice AR and have high hopes.  He is now a 4yo with a record of 18-5-4-0 and just over $500,000 in earnings.  Acceptable, but not anything to crow about.

Sabretooth?  I had lower expectations because the breeding pair of Predator x Monsoon was not as compelling.  He has actually surpassed Shatterstar somewhat on the scale of mediocrity though.  A record of 18-3-4-3 with career earnings of $800,800 is actually not half bad.  He represents the best that I've been able to produce since my very first foal, Nova.

Domino (War Machine x Sharp Cat) 19-3-4-4, $172,575 and Tombstone (Vampirical x Shadowcat) 18-1-3-2, $172,300 round out my very average 4yo crop.

You see what's going on here?  None of them are completely hopeless.  You know, no 13-0-0-0 record or anything like that.  And yet, none of them are really good either. 

My next crop, who are currently 3yo's,  follow the same pattern.  Huntress (Big Easy x Shadowcat)  started off with a bang, winning her first race.  Since then, she has regressed a bit and sports a record of 8-1-0-3 with earnings of $116,100.

Starfire, a full sister to Shatterstar, and seemingly talent-laden, is currently at 9-0-3-2 with microscopic earnings of $86,250.  She's on-the-board in over 50% of her races, but hasn't won and her purses are pathetic.  Average, but not hopeless.

The sky was the limit for Ultron (War Machine x Nova) but he too has succumbed to the middle of the bell-shaped curve.  His record of 9-0-2-2 and earnings of just $39,000 leave much to be desired.

The past season I produced four foals and the jury is still out.  Nebula (Dubai Gold x Nova) is the only one who has raced and she finished a respectable 3rd.  Not great, not hopeless.  Too soon to tell really.

Going forward, I have a much larger population of foals to test.  Next season, I'll have 9 and in 2015 I'll have 11.  Hopefully, I can break out of this mold of mediocrity.

Killer heads back to London.

In a pre-arranged agreement, A View to a Kill is being sent back to where he was bred; Bally Doyle stable in London.

"It was a tough thing to do.  Packing Killer up for the trip to London was a heart-wrenching experience, and I'm not normally an emotional guy", Otsego owner Jim Webber said as the 5yo male was loaded up for the first leg of the trip back to the United Kingdom.

Webber continued, "Even though he hasn't accomplished all that we thought he could, he has been an excellent racer and I'll miss having a rock-solid option to throw out every 6 weeks."

"Mandy (Amanda O'Brien of Bally Doyle) was very gracious to let us have Killer for the past couple seasons and we promised she could have him back, just for the cost to ship him home."

With A View to a Kill gone, on the heels of the Sazerac sale, Otsego Farms finds itself with three open stalls and perhaps the need for another racer.

Successful weekend? That's debatable.

I suppose it could have been worse.  I didn't have a winner, but four out of five did hit the board, so I have to be thankful for that.

Nebula, a prized home-bred filly, finished 3rd in the William Tell.  She stayed towards the front the entire race and showed some promise.  She'll get about 60 days off and will try again at a slightly longer distance.

The 3yo colt Ultron also finished 3rd in the 6f Vulcan Stakes.  He was tailing off at the end so we'll need to work a bit on his stamina.

3yo filly Huntress lead early and faded in the last furlong to finish 3rd in the Cicada Stakes.  

Sabretooth also finished in 3rd place.  He ran in the Maker's Mark Mile on turf.  He ran into a bit of traffic and didn't get into the clear until late in the race, but rallied to hit the board.

Lastly, in his final race at Otsego Farms, A View to a Kill finished a disappointing 6th in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes.  He'll be sent to Bally Doyle as previously disclosed. 

Comings and goings...

GOING:

Sazerac, the 3yo filly (Sendintheclowns x Seattle Halo) has been sold to Golden Acres.  A change of venue may be all this filly needs to get her career energized.  Trainer Steve Wilman has had the "golden" touch recently, so perhaps he'll be the one to bring out the best in Sazerac.

COMING:

Two year old filly Nebula (Dubai Gold x Nova), will make her racing debut this weekend in the 5 furlong William Tell Stakes.  With these early 2yo fields consistently sporting 20 entries, the smallish field of 11 suited Otsego trainer Jim Webber very well. 

"She's been ready to go for a few weeks, but the fields have been too big.  I kinda wanted to hold off until April anyway...almost made it."

As Nebula breezed by on a morning workout, Webber smiled and shook his head wistfully, "We've got high hopes for this girl.  Frankly, I'm scared to death of this first race.  It'll be devastating if she has a poor performance."

The blush is off the rose....

Tombstone's win was like a last minute call from the governor granting him a stay of execution.  He'll stick around for awhile; probably for the rest of the season.

Sazerac therefore, has moved into the position of official scapegoat. 

I was initially excited about her purchase.  She was, after all, an unraced 3yo filly, and that is a nifty little combination of attributes.

A 6th and a 9th place finish in her first two races has tempered my excitement.  She has gone off at reasonable odds; 7-2 in her debut, and 7-1 in her second race.  At least she hasn't been a hopeless 99-1 longshot, and that is encouraging.

However, I haven't seen enough talent.  The was no sparkle on the track to keep me hooked.

With my commitment to breeding and the prerequisite mares and foals occupying many stalls, my racing string is being constricted and it looks like Sazerac may be squeezed out.

I'm still thinking, but here is her AR.  If anyone has any interest, drop me a line.  I can't guarantee that I'm gonna sell her right now, but I might if the right person is interested and they are willing to pay $15,000.

Sazerac (2010), 15.3 hand bay filly

By Sendintheclowns out of Seattle Halo by Seattle Slew

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.

This horse is good on hard dirt.

This horse prefers soft dirt.

This horse prefers mud.

This horse is good on hard turf.

This horse is ok on soft turf.

This horse has physical problems that may lead to alot of injury downtime.

This horse has average ratability.

This horse appears to be a sprinter.

Fun Video #3

Captain Ron.  One of my favorites.

Listen for the "Oh God no!".  Hilarious.

Tombstone breaks maiden.

"It was a timely win for Tombstone", Otsego owner Jim Webber confided to reporters after witnessing the 4yo colt win his first race this weekend.  "I had already decided that if he couldn't win a $33,000 Maiden, in his 18th start, he would have no place in our stable."

"You know I love this colt.  His attitude and personality make him one of my favorites, and I've said all along that he has talent.  Unfortunately, his talent has not manifested itself on the track and this was potentially his last race for Otsego Farms."

It was touch-and-go at the finish as Tombstone just edged the 3yo filly Sacagawea.  When reminded of the close finish, the fiery Webber exclaimed, "It was no wonder she tracked him down!  The filly only had 99 pounds on her.  Tombstone had 126!"

As Webber finished up the interview, KRF Stables owner Karie Okerstrom passed by with a nod and a  smile.  Webber yelled out, "Hey Karie, you wanna grab some dinner?  Where's Ryan?"

With a grin Karie said, "Oh, he's mucking out stalls tonight back on the farm".

"Oh, that's a shame."  And sticking out his arm with a wink back at the reporters Webber continued, "Shall we?"

Fun Video #2

I haven't seen a Red Fox in the wild for many years. 

Recently though, my sons Reid and Grant, spotted this fellow right behind our house.  Not only did they see him; they caught him in the act of securing his lunch, a tasty little mouse I suspect.  Check this out: