I'm not gonna lie. I'm very excited.

Thanks to the generosity of a few PF friends*, who allowed me to purchase some horses that may have brought more on the open market, my stable is in the best shape it's been in years.

Now, I've got about 10 horses that are a threat to win every time they race.  I have never  had this kind of depth before, and it only gonna get better with a bumper crop of real prospects coming up next year.

Next year, with Kayson, Crossbones, House of M, Machine Gun, Methy Bus, Nebula, Refractor, Captain Britain, and You Know My Name, I'll have a load of excellent veteran racers.  Add to that 2yo mega-prospects Jack the Ripper, Juggernaut, and Warp Factor Ten, plus unraced 3yo Mocha Milkshake, and I feel that my stable will be better than it's ever been.

*Rainbow, Smokey's Stable, Hopeful Farm, and Foxies Lodge

I just couldn't do it...

He didn't deserve to get shipped out.  He's finished on-the-board in all three races for Otsego Farms and his mom is a broodmare here.

I need to clear a couple stalls between now and breeding time and he was deemed the least stall-worthy of my current string.  Not because he's no good; but because he's the least valuable of all my horses that are 3yo or older.  My 2yo's get a pass into next season, which leaves me limited options for who to sell. 

Necromancer will eventually have to go though.  In fact, he spent an hour or two on the sales page today as a BUY NOW for $1000.  Not bad for a horse who has been in-the-money in 9 of his last 10 races. 

I ultimately decided that I'd just keep him until the end of the season, rather than risk him going somewhere undesirable.  Luckily, I was able to snatch him off the sales page before someone bought him.

However, I'd still let him go under the right circumstances.  If there is someone who is down on their luck and would like a decent racer for a cup of coffee, contact me.

Good week upsets plans...

I have to clear a couple stalls before the end of the year, and this weeks racing was supposed to finalize my plans for the disposition of two racers.  Instead, the success they had has muddied the waters considerably.

I bought Art of Seduction due to his breeding and tantalizing stamina rating.  His first race for Otsego Farms produced a decent but unremarkable 8th place finish in a crowded field of 18.  His trip was not clean but he finished well, so even though he was out of the money by far, it was a promising showing.  In spite of that, he was on the chopping block due to necessity.

His race this week was supposed to cement his position on the sales page.  But, a 4th place finish in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile has me reconsidering, especially since he had a boatload of unused stamina at the end of the race, reinforcing my original thought of his suitability for much longer races.

Another racer who was starting to become dispensable in my eyes is Nebula.  Out of the money in her last two races, and seemingly making no progress ability-wise, I had decided that another finish off the board finish would spell doom for the well-bred filly.  I shortened her distance a bit, thinking that may help, but she still went off at rather long 11-1 odds.  Seeing that the oddsmakers again had no love for her, I prepared myself to sell her this week.

Nebula looked spectacular, making a hash of the field and winning by an easy 7 lengths.  Any thoughts of selling her went out the window.

So, two racers that I had immediate plans to sell, have both gotten a reprieve.

On the other hand, Necromancer, who has produced very well in his time at our stable, has now moved to the bottom of the totem pole along with 2yo bust Quasar.  Watch the sales page if you have any interest...

Unsolicited advice to no one in particular.

Every owner has the responsibility to ascertain the strengths and weaknesses of their horses to the extent of which their time or interest allows.

We all use the Ability Report (AR) to some degree as a starting point.  To this we add what we may glean from the horses race performance.  Finally, we analyze the statistics from the .rce files, and a picture of the horses true abilities begin to emerge.

With all of the data to consider and digest, why do we sometimes make bad decisions regarding entries?

I have a specific case in mind; a 3yo colt named Secret Energy.

I have not seen this horses AR, so I do not know if the owner has been mislead by the printed word.  But simply looking at the race history leads me to the belief that he is a sprinter.  He put up a 118 PSR, and finished 1st at 4.5F and finished 2nd with a 104 PSR at 5F.  His efforts at longer distances have been poor.  His most recent stat line reads as follows: Break Speed 76, Early Speed 91, Top Speed 92, Long Stamina 64.

That LS rating of 64 screams SPRINTER.  It is one of the lowest scores I have ever seen and pigeon-holes this fellow into races of 5F or less.  His ES/TS of 91/92 is pretty good, explaining why he did well at those short races.  Why then, in the name of Willie Shoemaker, has Secret Energy run his last two races at 10F and (gasp) 14F?

He finished in last place in both races, and in the 14F St. Leger, was an astounding 105L back of the winner.  Perhaps the most ill-advised entry I have ever seen... and I've seen some doozies.  Please note: Beerfest finished 53L back and was only slightly less preposterous as an entry in this race with a LS of 67.  He shouldn't ever go beyond 8F in my opinion, even though his last four races have been at 14F, 16F, 16F, and 12F.

Back to Secret Energy.  This is a sprinter.  His performance suggests it and his HRF speed attributes confirm it.  I would recommend that he go back to sprints and stay there.  He'll be much more successful, that I guarantee.

Moral of this story?  Use the published evidence on your horse to properly place him.  It's all there, you just gotta look at it and think a little bit.

So.... how much is a horse worth?

It really is quite entertaining to observe transactions that take place in Photo-Finish.  Whether the sales take place privately, or are done via auction, they all eventually end up published on the sales page for us to scrutinize; and I for one, find the information to be fascinating.

I look at some of these horses with myriad last place finishes, a history of poor speed scores, and consistently lousy odds, and for the life of me, I can't figure out what people are thinking by bothering to bid on them.  "Now wait a doggone minute there Jim", you might be thinking.  "You paid $30,000 for La Force, who was obviously a bad horse.  Isn't this a case of the pot calling the kettle black?" 

I don't think so.  La Force has an abnormally high, and fairly rare stamina rating and, based on that alone, I thought he might have some potential at longer races.  I was wrong, but I felt that his monstrous stamina rating merited spending the 30 grand.  In retrospect, I'm sure Laurie would have sold him to me for considerably less.

I marvel that one owner pays just $50 for a horse worth considerably more. Then I'll marvel again that another owner pays $10,000 for a horse that is worthless. They say that beauty is in the eyes of the beholder, right? Can the same be said for talent?  How do we put a price tag on potential?

Aadil recently posted that he was looking for a quality 2yo.  Aren't we all?  The difference though, is that he is willing to pay up to $5,000,000.  Now that can get your attention. 

Unfortunately, owners that think they have a 2yo horse that may have $5M in purses in him, usually won't sell.  They want the enjoyment of winning the money themselves and gaining the acclaim that goes along with it.  Owners that think their 2yo horse will not win $5M in their career though, are usually the ones that will sell.  Case in point:  Hutton offered up If The Cat Fitz for $3M and Aadil wisely turned him down. 

I recently paid $2,000,000 for Refractor, $3,000,000 for Methy Bus, $1,250,000 for Kayson, and $300,000 for Machine Gun.  Refractor hadn't done anything before I bought him, but he has shown that he is worth the investment.  Methy Bus cost a fair bit, but he is talented and has a long career ahead.  Kayson is just now maturing, so I felt the price was right, given the potential benefits.  Machine Gun is maddeningly inconsistent, but he may yet prove to have been a bargain. 

My point is... we all see things differently.  There are probably people out there who think I overpaid on some or all of these horses.  Time will tell.

Take cover. Buying spree continues...

A long-coveted racer became the property of Otsego Farms tonight when a deal was struck with Foxies Lodge involving the 3yo colt Machine Gun.

"We've had discussions with Rachel concerning Machine Gun on a couple occasions," Otsego owner Jim Webber confided.  "She has wanted to give him every opportunity Down Under, but as you all know, Foxie has a low tolerance for underperforming horses, regardless of their pedigree.  I think the 4th place finish by Machine Gun this weekend sealed his fate at Foxies Lodge."

The chestnut colt is by War Machine out of the super-staying filly Promised Land.  He has a current record of 7-1-2-0 with $205,000 in earnings.  

"I spoke to Foxie a couple times about this fella.  I've been following his career since the start and asked her again earlier this year if he was available.  At the time she said no, but a couple disappointing starts must have changed her mind.  I'm glad she's got a good memory and called me before selling Machine Gun via auction.  I owe her another favor," Webber promised with a smile.

Interesting Factoids (to me anyway)

I have a spreadsheet with data for all of my non-breeding horses.  It shows their age, maturity rate, length of career peak, best distance, and their rating on all surfaces.  I find it very handy.  In fact, I refer to it frequently when I am analyzing the horses and making entries.

I was glancing at it today and was noticing a few things.  I have 37 horses listed and:

• Three have a Very Long career peak.  5yo Shatterstar, 3yo Crossbones, and weanling French Twist all project to have careers spanning many seasons.  I also have four horses that project with Long careers.  They are 3yo Methy Bus, yearling Jack the Ripper, and weanlings Vinyasa and Zombieslayer.
• The vast majority of my horses are Quick to mature.  However, I do have a few who are growing up slowly.  They are 4yo Kayson, 2yo Mocha Milkshake, and weanling Slaya.  Those three will not be fully mature until 4-5 range.
• I've got a couple horses who absolutely hate dirt.  With 5/5 reflecting Prefer/Prefer on Hard/Soft dirt, 2yo Captain Britain and Weanling Anck Su Namun both check in at 1/1.  My worst on turf are 2yo Xtra Run and yearling Trebuchet, both at 1/2.
• 27 Males vs just 10 Females.  That surprised me a bit, especially since four of the ten fillies are weanlings and hence, a long way from racing.

Negotiations result in 3yo Methy Bus joining Otsego Farms

Methy Bus (far left) thunders down the stretch to finish 2nd in the Doncaster Handicap

Methy Bus, the compact 3yo colt by A Bus out of Annibynnol Meth was purchased today from Smokey's Stable for $3M, making him the most expensive horse ever purchased by Otsego Farms.  Methy Bus has a career record of 13-4-4-2 with earnings of $1.3M.  Recently, he finished 2nd in the $1,000,000 Doncaster Handicap.

"Finding quality horses that owners are willing to part with is not easy", Otsego owner Jim Webber stated in a classic understatement.  "We've had feelers out for quite a while for one more horse, and we were able to make a deal with our good friends from Smokey's.  Methy Bus projects to have a long racing career, so we felt that justified a significant investment."

Otsego Farms has loosened the purse strings this season with three high profile purchases.  First came 3yo stayer Refractor for $2,000,000.  Kayson, the 4yo sprinter then checked in for $1,250,000.  Now Methy Bus for $3,000,000.

That puts us in a great position for 2015 with solid veteran performers such as:

1. Shatterstar - 6yo miler/classic
2. Kayson - 5yo sprinter
3. House of M - 4yo filly classic
4. Crossbones - 4yo classic
5. Refractor - 4yo stayer
6. Methy Bus - 4yo classic
7. Nebula -4yo filly miler

Hopefully, a couple of our current 2yo's will blossom as 3yo's next season.  We remain very high on colts Captain Britain, Deep Magic, and Kit Fisto.

8-2-3-0. I can live with that.

Refractor pulls away down the stretch.

Having gone close to a month without a win, I was glad to see a couple of them this weekend to get that monkey off my back.

Refractor, who was probably running beneath his station, won the 13F AJC Chairmans Handicap.  He was the prohibitive favorite and carried 17 lbs more than the closer competitor.  I have been trying to find longer races for Refractor and this one happened to be in the right place and right time.  He has posted his two best speed scores at 13F and 12.5F.  We think he may do his best work at 16F, and that is what we are aiming at down the road.  Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber was quoted as saying, "This fella is just starting to mature.  We think he'll be one of the major players at two miles for the next couple of years."

Shatterstar, the grizzled veteran 5yo, came up with a win in the GR3 Parramatta League Stakes at 7.5F.  It was the shortest race in his career.  "His huge lungs served him well in this race." Webber commented.  "He simply blew away the competition in the last furlong."

Crossbones, Necromancer, and up-and-coming 2yo Deep Magic all had second place finishes.

Simple system for horse travel?

Simple is an insidious word, because what sounds simple to me, may be a programming nightmare for Laurie.

I'm not sure how most people feel about instituting a travel rule into Photo Finish, but I have been in favor of it for ages.  My gut feeling is the only thing holding it up is a way to introduce it to the game without the Administrator having to spend 6 months at hard labor.

I was thinking it about it again and I would suggest a simplified approach.  How about this for a possibility?  Divide the world up into four quadrants with North America in the top left,  South America in the bottom left, Eurasia in the top right, and Australia in the lower right, with each race track getting assigned to a quadrant.

The system would have to remember the quadrant that the horse raced in last.  Then, when choosing future races from the drop down menu, the only races that will show up will be the ones that can be reached in the allotted time.  For instance:

Next race in same quadrant - Horse can run in races after 14 days.

Next race in adjacent quadrant - Horse can run in 28 days.

Next race in diagonal quadrant - Horse can run in 42 days.

This would approximate the logistics/difficulties of intercontinental travel.  It would require that owners be a little more on their toes, no question about that.  I for one would welcome it.  Perhaps a column could be added to the stable page that would identify the horses current quadrant location.  That would help immensely in planning.

Any input on this subject?

Still looking...

Otsego Farms is still in the market for one quality racer. 

Preferably a 3yo or a 4yo with two racing seasons left according to AR.  Sprinter, Miler, or Distance types are all acceptable.  I lean towards a filly but a colt would be OK.  I am looking to spend some cash...up to $2M (perhaps higher) for the right horse.

I've got a lot of young horses in the chute and I race my 2yo's very sparingly, so I need another veteran racer for next season and beyond.

Contact me at mvpcandidate@gmail.com.

Just a few things on my mind...

1)  The La Force experiment is officially over.  I bought him from Endless Vista for two reasons:

• strong breeding
• excellent stamina

As I mentioned previously, his AR says Sprinter, but that was under the old programming where some horses may have been misclassified.  I thought it was possible that he might have had a little more lung capacity than anticipated.  That may be true, but there is another fly in the ointment that continues to hamper his performance which I'll describe in layman's terms.... he's lazy!

No matter what distance he races, La Force simply will not exert himself.  I've raced him at 9F, 12F, and 16F.  He generally starts well, then settles in at effort-level 3 to breeze through the rest of the race.  That kind of work ethic is not permissible, so La Force has bought himself a ticket back to Endless Vista.

2)  Kayson threw up a 107 PSR and was only able to manage a 7th against GR1 opposition.  He's fast, but we'll try him at GR2 or GR3 next time out.

3)  We were very impressed with the 2nd place finish of Kit Fisto in his debut.  It was 8F on turf against four other 2yo's and the lone older horse, 5yo mare Light Touch, who was the winner.  Fisto was the favorite and carried the most weight.  He's the half-brother of 3yo colt Crossbones, so it looks like broodmare In Spirit may have thrown another decent one.

Otsego says goodbye to War Hammer

The enigmatic 3yo colt War Hammer (War Machine x Shattered Record) has been sold to Hey Buddy Racing Stable for $30,000.

"We had very high expectations for this fella, but he just hasn't panned out for us.  We are confident that he will do well for our friends at Hey Buddy", a rather subdued Jim Webber stated at the press conference to announce the sale.

The connections at Otsego Farms knew that War Hammer was going to mature slowly, but obviously decided they didn't want to wait.  "We're in a perpetual stall crunch and unfortunately, War Hammer has to be classified as collateral damage."  Webber continued, "We really like him and wish we had unlimited resources so we could bring him along at his own pace."

Which way to go?

I've been writing the blog for over 4 years and I've changed the look many times.  The title has always been Otsego Insider, but the font and picture at the top have been modified often.

I was originally thinking that the look should remain static.  That would portray solidity and continuity.  I mean, how often has the banner and general look of the Wall Street Journal changed over the last 100 years?

But, I just can't seem to stay satisfied with the way the blog looks, therefore I change it often.  So I continue to struggle with the choice of finding a layout I like and keeping it forever, or changing it as often as my mood dictates.

I'll have a Gal in (near) Kalamazoo

I was putting my breeding pairs together, trying to be as logical as possible.  When I finally got done and the dust cleared, one pairing stood as follows: 

Jenny's My Gal x Affirm Gal 

What are the odds that I'd have a sire and a dam both with the word Gal in their names?  I didn't plan it that way.  They just ended up together as though it was meant to be.  That initially led me along the lines of Kismet/Karma for foal names. 

Eventually though, I thought that I just had to continue the Gal thread; whether the foal was a colt or a filly.  So the names for this pair will be:

COLT - Galahad

FILLY - Galaxi

Always thinking...

As I mentioned in a previous post, I'm in the process of reconfiguring my stable to accommodate a maximum of the following:

• 10 Foals
• 10 One-year olds
• 10 Two-year olds
• 10 Three-year olds
• 7 Older racers
• 10 Broodmares
• 3 Stallions

Sixty total stalls.  I figure it will take me until the end of 2015 to get everything the way I want it.

In that regard, I'm evaluating my current stock to see who will be leaving Otsego Farms between now and the end of the season.  I'll probably sell a couple soon, because my stable is currently full and I hate having no available stall space.  You never know when an emergency acquisition may be necessary, right.

My older racers next year will be headlined by 6yo Shatterstar, 5yo Kayson, and 4yo's House of M, Crossbones and Refractor.  Horses that will be in this potential category that will be sold are La Force, Necromancer, and War Hammer, with Nebula currently being on the bubble.  Nebula is a talented filly who I just can't seem to get a handle on.  She'll get a couple more chances to convince me, one way or the other, unless someone makes me an offer in the meantime that I can't refuse.

I'd like it if all of my current 2yo's made it into next season, but there is a possibility that one or perhaps two of them may have to be sacrificed.

I see myself adding 5 stalls at the end of this year, which would put me at 55.  I'm currently full with 50 horses and I will have 10 foals, so I need to cut my string to 45 by the end of the season in order to accommodate the youngsters.

Also, I'd like to spend another million or so to pick up one more nice racer.  Any ideas?

I've had better weeks racing-wise, but something good still happened...

I'm not real happy with a record of 7-0-0-3 for the week.  Truth be told, I wasn't expecting too much because none of my top runners were going, but no wins or places in seven starts still smarts a bit. 

Xtra Run sure is a slow starter.  Worst breaking horse I've ever had.  She has other skills though and I'm still high on her, but she's gonna need to mature a bit and get into much longer races.  She finished 4th out of 7 this week. 

Shatterstar, Necromancer, and Quasar all has 3rd place finishes.  The first two fellows deserved to hit the board with nice efforts.  Quasar looked terrible though and if it wasn't just a 4-horse race, he would have finished well down the line.

You Know My Name looked decent in her debut finishing 5th out of 11.  Moondragon had a middle-of-the-pack finish, a disappointment after recording a win in her racing debut.  Art of Seduction had a rough trip with little clear sailing, but he looked OK in finishing 8th in a 18-horse field.

A positive development late in the weekend saw a deal between Otsego Farms and Hopeful Farm come to fruition.  Four-year-old sprinter Kayson (Handsome Man x Lady Kay, picture above courtesy of The Hopeful Report) will join our stable at a cost of $1,250,000.  

We have a distinct lack of sprinters, and needed another veteran racer so Kayson fits the bill on both accounts.  He's definitely got speed in the 5-6F range, putting up PSR's of 109, 108, 105 and 104, and he's a late maturing type, so we feel he'll have at least one more full season at peak performance.  We're very happy to have him.

Thwarted, but not defeated in my attempts to buy a horse

I have been trying for the last month to buy one more good racer or up-and-comer.  I want a proven commodity with another season or two in the tank, or a blue-chip prospect; and I'm willing to pay the necessary price.

I've recently had my eye on two horses, neither of which was ever offered on the sales page.  On one horse, I made an unsolicted offer.  The other horse was offered to me as a possibility.  Negotiations on both showed some promise, but were ultimately unsuccessful.  Understandably, owners are leery about selling good horses.

So, I continue to have my eye open for talent.  I've got just a single open stall, so I'm being picky about who occupies it.  Once it is filled, I'll be out of the market until late in the season.  At that time, I'll be clearing out some stock to make room for 10 incoming foals.

La Force, Necromancer, and War Hammer are three names that have come up as prospects to be sold.  However, I've made a mental committment to keep these fella's until late in the season to give them every chance to succeed.  Eventually, a couple others will be chosen to join that outgoing group.

But for now, my energies are aimed towards one more solid purchase.  If anyone reads this and wishes to make a suggestion of one of their horses, please do.  I'll ask that you not be offended if I decline, because I am looking for a very specific type of talent.

Big racing week at Otsego Farms

7-5-3. Those are the magic numbers this week.

Seven total racers. That is a lot for me considering that I've had just over 40 entries all year so far.

Five two-year-old entries. I've only had 7 entries total for all of my 2yo's thus far in 2014.

Three Otsego Farms debut races. New acquisitions Art of Seduction and Necromancer both make their first appearances in the Blue and Yellow, and the 2yo filly You Know My Name (Union Jack x Shattered Record) hits the track for the first time in her career.

Moondragon will run in the 5.5F Tippett Stakes looking to make it two in a row after getting the win in her first race.  The field has 13 entries which is just past the normal tipping point where I scratch a 2yo, but I decided to give it a go based on her strong previous showing.

Xtra Run makes her second start in the 6F Angle C Stakes.  She's a slow starter who did not perform well in her debut at a short 4.5F.  The extra distance should help her immensely, and even though it's probably still way too short for her, we're predicting a win.

Veteran Shatterstar, who will stick around at the stable for as long as it takes to become a million dollar earner,  and 2yo Quasar (Revenge x Nova) round out the entries.

Latest scientific discovery at the Photo Finish laboratory.

In real life, horses do better with adequate rest.  In most cases, that is also true in Photo Finish.

We're all tempted to run these fantasy critters every 14 days or even more frequently than that because it's fun and because it's usually more profitable to race them than to rest them.  Some of us are more than tempted, we just do it.  Sometimes by design, sometimes by accident.

I always suspected that the software was sophisticated enough to deal harshly with over-racing.  It was advertised as the most realistic racing simulation on the market.  How could it not?

And yet there are instances in Photo Finish where lack of rest does not always doom a horse.  I wonder why?  Perhaps because, like in real life racing, there are horses who can handle a heavy workload with little trouble.

In any event, I was curious about how lack of rest affects a horse and I thought I'd check into it.  I'm not sure why it never occurred to me to look at this before, but I decided to look at a horses four main attributes when well-rested, then again when not well-rested.  A perfect test case emerged a couple weeks ago when Myasa won a race on 5-30-14, then lost horribly on short rest on 6-3-14.

Port Pirie took some heat on the June entry with some camps believing it was a simple case of greed.  Connections at Port Pirie insisted it was just an oversight.  Either way, it is a perfect example for this test.

The four attributes for Myasa when well-rested were:

Break Speed - 81

Early Speed - 90

Top Speed - 91

Stamina - 70

Very good overall ratings.  Good enough for her to easily win the race at 12F against some tough hombres like Run On Sentence, Pluto, and Refractor.

She was back on the track in just 4 days and her lack of rest manifested itself with these numbers:

Break Speed - 73

Early Speed - 88

Top Speed - 89

Stamina - 66

Across the board, the numbers were way down.  The stamina number was especially poor, and woefully inadequate for The Derby at 12F.  She finished last.

So, we have to keep this in mind.  I've had racers that finished a race with an ESN of 1200 (I don't know what Myasa's ESN was after the first race) and I thought, "Cool.  He hardly worked at all.  I can probably send him to that race in 16 days with no repercussions."  

However, if a horse finishes a race with a solidly positive ESN, perhaps that by itself doesn't necessarily mean he may be ready to race soon.  Maybe, as reflected in Myasa's case, the base numbers are still affected negatively, which will probably manifest itself in ugly fashion on the track.

Maybe some of you knew this.  I knew the base numbers got better as a horse matured to full strength and then declined as the horse aged.  I never really thought about significant race-to-race changes as a result of how the horse was being treated.  I'll look more closely at this in the future, that's for sure.