Crazy experiment yields acceptable results

I mentioned previously that I experimented a bit with my Union Jack foals this year.

In the past, I have tried to match him strength to strength, matching him with turf/distance mares such as Ace Of Grace, In Spirit, and Arctic Fox.  This year, willing to go against my conventional wisdom, I bred him just twice and both mares were dirt milers; Nova and Nova's daughter Nebula.

Nova had most of her success at 6F, but she had the chops for a couple more furlongs.  She just fell into that sprinter category and things were going pretty well so she stayed there.  She did crank off a few 100+ PSR's at the end of her career at distances of 8.5F and 9F.  And she was fast! 

Nebula, while not nearly as talented as her mother, was a consistent earner and also could handle 8F, even though she ran mostly in sprints.

Neither one of these mares ever ran on turf.  Why then would I even consider matching then with a distance horse who ran on dirt only once in 46 career starts?

Ummm.  I don't know.

In my defense, Union Jack was actually rated as Good, OK, Good on dirt surfaces.  So, I figured that even if the dirt gene did raise it's head, it shouldn't blow the foals out of the water.  And... if I got Union Jack's stamina or an average of sire and dam, I had at least a 54% chance of getting a Classic or longer foal.

Here's what I got:

Jackanova (2017), 15.3 hand dark brown filly

By Union Jack out of Nova by Housebuster

This horse will mature at the average rate (3-4).

This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.

This horse prefers hard dirt.

This horse is good on soft dirt.

This horse is good in mud.

This horse prefers hard turf.

This horse is ok on soft turf.

This horse is of average soundness.

This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.

This horse stalks the pace.

This horse accelerates like a bullet!

This horse has average speed out of the gate.

This horse has good speed. Could set records.

This horse likes a lot of distance.

Three Rings (2017), 17 hand dark brown filly

By Union Jack out of Nebula by Dubai Gold

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.

This horse dislikes hard dirt.

This horse is poor on soft dirt.

This horse is good in mud.

This horse prefers hard turf.

This horse is poor on soft turf.

This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.

This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.

This horse is a front runner.

This horse has good acceleration.

This horse is a slow starter out of the gate.

This horse has average speed.

This horse looks like it can run at classic distances.

Guardians of the dream world, I would like to see my future...

I'm not one to roll my 2yo's out early.  If they're not sprinters or milers, they are very unlikely to see the track until August or so.  Consequently, I usually don't get a lot of action from my youngsters, since most of them are usually distance types.

For 2017, I have just three 2yo's that will get some early runs and they all look decent on paper...

• Big Bang - colt.  Big N' Rich x Nova.  Miler.
• Numerator - filly.  Reichenbach Falls x Second Strike.  Sprinter.
• Tricky Woo - filly.  Yeager x Domino.  Sprinter.

Big Bang and Numerator both break well, have good acceleration and good speed.  Tricky Woo will be a little trickier to manage.  She also has good acceleration and good speed, but she is a slow starter and runs from behind.  We're concerned that she may run out of track before she can get up to speed.

As far as probable effectiveness goes, I would probably rank them in that exact order, alphabetically.  Big Bang and Numerator could possibly be interchangeable due to BB's very short projected career and N's very long career.

In truth, your guess is as good as mine as to who will step up and who will fall down.

Shocking new theory suggests past Photo Finish seasons have, in fact, occurred

Renowned Ancient Alien expert Giorgio A. Tsoukalos has weighed in on the theory that Photo Finish seasons have occurred in the recent historical past.

"Data recovered from dozens of computers scattered all over the globe seem to confirm that there have been previous seasons of Photo Finish", Mr. Tsoukalos recently stated.  He continued, "We have found incontestable evidence in North America, South America, Europe, and Australia that these culturally diverse people have shared this passion and technology simultaneously in the past, and I predict they will do so again in the future."

Mr. Tsoukalos declined to speculate on when a new season might begin.

My AR can beat up your AR!

I've always found it amusing when the new foal's AR's come out. Back in the day, it could get to be a bit over the top. We would seem to have foal crops with approximately 50 Kentucky Derby winners. Two dozen Triple Crown winners. Hundreds of Eclipse winners. It really was pretty funny. Especially for someone that typically looks over my entire crop for a few minutes and then completely forgets about them until they're ready to race.

She does. Bang, that is.

In her time at Otsego Farms, In Spirit has produced some very solid foals.  Kit Fisto has been the only stinker in the bunch and even he wasn't hopeless, although he has yet to notch a victory.  Her most recent foal, the little bay filly She Bangs, has created some buzz in the stable. 

Sired by the legendary turf stayer Sinking Fear, She Bangs looks like a chip off the old block, except for one thing... she is indifferent on turf.  Odd indeed when you consider that her dam In Spirit also had a distinct fondness for grass.  Ahh, the vagaries of breeding...

She Bangs (2017), 16.3 hand bay filly

By Sinking Fear out of In Spirit by Bellbuster

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will enjoy a long peak performance time, several racing seasons.

This horse is good on hard dirt.

This horse prefers soft dirt.

This horse is good in mud.

This horse is ok on hard turf.

This horse is poor on soft turf.

This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.

This horse has average ratability.

This horse always comes from midpack.

This horse accelerates like a bullet!

This horse has average speed out of the gate.

This horse has good speed. Could set records.

This horse likes a lot of distance.

Matures quickly, long career, bullet acceleration, good speed, likes distance... what's not to like? 

Yes sir.  I've got a crush on this girl.  I'm gonna walk right out to the gazebo and carve a heart with the letters JW + SB in it.

Quick Hits...

Battlestar has Triple Crown aspirations.

Three year old colt Battlestar (Nightwing x In Spirit) has the potential to do some damage on the 10F-12F circuit this season.  He has a fairly uncommon combination of speed, stamina, and kick which should set him apart.  I won't divulge the exact numbers, but he is the only horse I have which fits into this category.  Unfortunately, he is rather picky on hard surfaces, which may cause an occasional scratch.  I will try to set his schedule so that a run at the American Triple Crown is possible.

Liam, the 4yo colt acquired from Whisperwood late last season, has been a bit of a forgotten commodity at Otsego Farms.  In fact, I just noticed that he was not even listed on the spreadsheet listing all of my horses.  The fact is, I am very high on this fellow, especially after he won his first and only race since we acquired him.  With numbers of 79/92/92/67/1000, he has more ability than a sprinter, distance-wise, but has exceptional speed for a miler.  We'll target him at 7F-8F, expecting very good results.

We're looking forward to seeing unraced 3yo filly Slaya (A View to a Kill x Shattered Record) hit the track later this season.  She is a very late maturing type, not hitting her peak until age 4-5, but we'll see where she's at with a try later in the season.  She looks like a multi-surface Classic type racer.

Mona Lisa (War Machine x Second Strike), a slow-starting sprinter with questionable speed and poor stamina, will be on an extremely short leash this season.  One start is all she'll get.  A PSR less than 75 and she's gone.

Ironically, Charlemagne, the 4yo colt who is a full brother to Mona Lisa, has almost worn out his welcome as well.  He has some ability, but has also been a disappointment.  I acquired their mother, Second Strike, for the sole purpose of breeding with War Machine.  She had a nice career and her AR looked to be a great fit with the Triple Crown winner.  The results were so pathetic though, that I decided to never pair her with War Machine again.  Then two foals later (Reichenbach Falls, Union Jack), I arranged a swap for this past breeding season with Foxies Lodge.  I used Sovereign Belle (War Machine), and she used Second Strike (Jenny's My Gal).

Defending distance

I've never been partial to sprinters.  Maybe it's the smaller purses.  Perhaps the races are a little less glamorous.  For some reason, they seem a little less masculine to me, and as you all know, I'm all about masculinity.  Whatever the reason, I'm firmly entrenched in the Classic and Distance castle with a wide moat surrounding me, the drawbridge pulled up, and longbowman manning the towers.

I breed primarily for distance.  I buy primarily for distance.  Consequently, I pay particular attention to the Stamina for every horse I breed or buy.  Based on the Stamina Rating, and in my experience and opinion, horses generally fall into these broad categories:

65-67  Sprinter

67-69  Miler

69-71  Classic

71-73  Distance

73-75  Endurance

Individual horses may have success in the adjacent category, either up or down, depending on the other characteristics they possess.  However, regardless of their other strengths, it is safe to assume that a horse with a 66 Stamina Rating is not going to win the 10F Kentucky Derby and the 12F Belmont would be completely out of the question.

In the 65-67 class, I only have a total of three horses:

Xtra Gold 4F - I bought based on talent, knowing exactly what she was.

French Twist 3M - Bred as a sprinter/miler, so no surprise here.

Mona Lisa 3F - Random factor raising it's ugly head.

In the 71-73 class, I have nine horses:

Crossbones 6M, Methy Bus 6M, Refractor 6M, Alphabet 5M, Astrapios 4M, Crackerjack 4M, Battlestar 3M, Hollands Best 3M, and Zombieslayer 3M.

Every one bought or bred for distance.  I'm sure my new 2yo crop will add a couple more to that list.

I have dabbled a bit with the sprinting class in the past few years, matching broodmares Nova and Nebula with sprinting sires, but I think they are both capable of throwing Classic+ as well, as evidenced by my decision to match them both with Union Jack this past breeding season.

After this season, Refractor and Alphabet will most likely retire and it's possible that both will stay on as stallions.  That would give me five monster distance studs (War Machine, Nightwing, Union Jack) which is more than I need, to be sure.  But how do you let any of those guys go?

What It Takes

My first article at the Otsego Insider. The site's fearless leader, Jim Webber, has already made the "exciting announcement". Various Photo Finish players, like Karen and Donny, have chimed in on the subject. Chelsey is already talking about deadlines. Deadlines?!?! What have I gotten myself into?! Great. Now I have to come up with something to write about. Not to mention the fact that it has to be at least a little interesting. These people want to be entertained! I'm in soooooo much trouble.

The Breeding Gnome has struck

Source: lolroflmao.com via Gail on Pinterest

2016 Breeding Pairs

Six of the 10 foals born in 2017 will feature Otsego Farms stallions.  Three will be sired by War Machine, two by Union Jack, and one by Nightwing.  The other four spots will be handled by Memcay, Pluto, Sinking Fear, and Kostya.

War Machine x On The Prowl

We are excited about newcomer OTP.  She was a speedy, early maturing type, and we think she'll be a magnificent match for War Machine.

Colt - Hella Good

Filly - Hella Good

War Machine x Affirm Gal

This pairing produced the nice distance colt Zombieslayer in 2014.  We like what we've seen in limited racing, so we thought we'd give this match another go.

Colt - Galahad

Filly - La

War Machine x Sovereign Belle

A one-year mare swap with Foxies Lodge brought SB over to pair with War Machine.  She had a solid career, but has proved to be a producer in the breeding shed.

Colt - Double Infinity

Filly - Double Infinity

Union Jack x Nova

This is a departure from our usual breeding strategy.  In this case we match a turf stayer with a dirt sprinter/miler.  In Jack, we trust.

Colt - Jackanova

Filly - Jackanova

Union Jack x Nebula

Departure from usual breeding strategy, part two.  Both Nebula and Nova prefer dirt and have better than sprinter stamina, so we're hoping for fast, classic-type racers.

Colt - Three Rings

Filly - Three Rings

Nightwing x House of M

This one has us very excited.  M was a true talent, with speed and stamina.  War Machine wasn't an option, since he sired House of M, so we decided to let the old man have the honors.

Colt - Moon Knight

Filly - Trouble

Memcay x Ace Of Grace

AOG has the chops for 16F and when we acquired a free breeding to Memcay, it seemed like a perfect match.  This one will probably go long.

Colt - Twin Flame

Filly - Twin Flame

Pluto x Arctic Fox

AF has churned out some nice looking colts in the past three years by Otsego stallions.  We thought an opportunity with an outside stud of Pluto's calibre might pay dividends.

Colt - Admiral Boom

Filly - Dream Girl

Sinking Fear x In Spirit

Another free breeding awarded via the Survival Contest.  IS has been very successful as a broodmare for us and this looks like a very nice match.

Colt - Jax

Filly - She Bangs

Kostya x Domino

We have loved the look of the sprinters that Domino has produced in the past three years.  Former Otsego Farms racer Kostya should sire another sprinter.

Colt - Tesseract

Filly - Tesseract

Just for fun...

Hello? How did I forget about this little filly?

Well... Natalia is really not very little.  At 17.2 hands this 3yo light gray filly is actually bigger than her poppa, FDL's stud stayer Braveheart.

She showed up in my stable this afternoon, completely unannounced.  I had to call my Accounting Department and ask them what the Hell was going on!  Evidently, during the auction I made a bid early on, then promptly forgot about it.  Even after the auction ended, I hadn't realized that I had won.

It was a sweet surprise, let me tell you.  I see something in this filly.  She's big and strong and has decent speed to go along with improving stamina.  Plus she seems to have the will to compete, finishing second in two career races (both at 8F), at odds of 6/4 and 9/4.

What suprised me was that I threw out a low-ball bid, figuring I'd never get her.  I was too busy monitoring my other bids (mainly Alphabet) to notice that I snagged her for just $21,000.

Nice.  It made my day!

A history of the Kentucky Derby and Otsego Farms

The Kentucky Derby is probably the race that American stables covet most.  In the 14-year history of this race here at Photo Finish, Otsego Farms has sent five colts to run for the roses.

2004 Kentucky Derby

In the 2004 Derby, just the second in PF history, Nightwing made the start in a tough 15-horse field. 

There have been some strong fields over the years, but top-to-bottom, this one may have been the deepest.  Along with winner Thunder Arctic, the field also contained legendary horses such as Dansilver, Dubai Gold, Chatterbox (the only filly in the field), Congenial, Blushing Approval, Vampirical, and Troll Tower.

Nightwing went off at 11-1 and finished a very respectable 5th.

2006 Kentucky Derby

This was the year that War Machine won the Derby, then continued on to win the American Triple Crown.

He was the 9-4 favorite, but had to contend with some stiff competition.  Among the 12-horse field were illuminaries such as Smart Money Golden Tombi, Star Studded, Dancing Delaware, and Big N' Rich.

War Machine had to deal with an off-ish track that was only rated GOOD; the only race in the 14-year history of the Kentucky Derby that was not rated at FAST.

2007 Kentucky Derby

Doomsday was unloved by the punters, as evidenced by the 29-1 odds, making him a definite longshot.  There were many that questioned the appropriateness of this entry.  However, with a record of 4-1-2-0 at the time and coming off a 2nd place finish in the Arkansas Derby, the connections at Otsego Farms felt he had earned a shot.

This was an exceptionally top-heavy field with superstars Pegasus Song (who became the first filly to win the Kentucky Derby), Lazy Loper, Take A Gander, A Bus, and Braveheart all participating.  Doomsday was not up to the task, finishing 10th in the 12-horse field.

2008 Kentucky Derby

Turf stayer Union Jack was a last minute entry in the 2008 race.  He had three previous attempts on dirt in his 10 races leading up to the Derby and his 10-6-1-0 record was definitely worthy, but we had misgivings nevertheless due to his marked preference for turf.

He was fairly well-received by the oddsmakers with a 9-1 line at post time, but finished down the pack in 7th in a large 19-horse field.  Union Jack drew the unfortunate post position of 19 in the race that was won by a filly for the second consecutive year, Perfect Bell.  In fact, fillies finished 1-2-3 in this race, with Isca's Revenge getting 2nd and Case Closed finishing 3rd.

2014 Kentucky Derby

After a five year absence from the Derby, Otsego Farms sent Crossbones in 2014.  At 15-1 odds, he was not expected to contend in the congested 20-horse field.  This group was probably one of the weaker fields in Derby history, but had stars such as filly Isca's Dawn, Pluto, Mongoose, Nemisis, Spaceman, and Methy Bus.

Crossbones finished suprisingly well in 3rd place, behind filly Isca's Dawn (who became the 3rd filly to win the KD), and colt Mongoose.

                                                                 -----

So, in five attempts at the Derby, Otsego Farms has fashioned a record of 5-1-0-1. 

The only Otsego Farms horse that may be considered as a Kentucky Derby hopeful for 2017 is Battlestar (Nightwing x In Spirit).  His early schedule will be geared specifically towards the Derby and the Triple Crown.

Otsego Farms owner makes Oscar appearance

Jim Webber, owner of Otsego Farms, was in Hollywood last weekend at the Dolby Theatre to attend the 85th annual Academy Awards ceremony.

Concerning this photo with longtime friend, actress Jennifer Garner, Webber stated, "Affleck toddled off to the boys room, so I took the opportunity to say hello to Jen." 

Can you handle the truth?

Since the breeding season is upon us, I thought this article might be timely.  This is a reprint from the Otsego Insider, Saturday, October 18th, 2008.

These fantasy horses are very complex critters.

When a new foal is born, we are presented with a short AR which gives us rudimentary information about the new arrival. That information, plus what we can glean from studying the history of the sire and dam, is all we have to plan the new horses future.

Later, we gain more information by watching the horse race. Eventually, we develop a clear picture of the horses abilities and shortcomings. Sometimes this revelation comes quickly, sometimes it doesn't.

As I said, these fantasy horses are very complex critters. The small amount of information on the AR camouflage's the fact that there are many, many facets to the abilities and disabilities of each horse.

Here is a list of the attributes of each horse in the Photo-Finish game.

• Break Speed
• Early Speed
• Top Speed
• Long Stamina
• Ratability
• Running on Lead
• Handles Traffic
• Courage
• Soundness
• Curve Ability
• Durability
• Consistency
• Weight Stress Point
• Begin Peak Age
• End Peak Age
• Peak % at Age 3.3
• Running Style
• Acceleration
• Hard Dirt Ability
• Soft Dirt Ability
• Mud Ability
• Firm Turf Ability
• Soft Turf Ability

I imagine that many of these rating are intertwined when it comes to the horse performance on the track. For instance, a Poor Break Speed and the Far Back Running Style, may spell doom for a 5-furlong sprinter even if he has the most illustrious parents. Conversely, if all of the proper attributes fall correctly into place, you can have a superstar from relatively humble origins.

The attributes for each foal are determined by a mathematical breeding program devised by Photo-Finish Founder Laurie Brown.

Each attribute for the new foal is determined in the following manner:

• 30% probability of using the sire rating
• 30% probability of using the dam rating
• 25% probability of using the average of the sire and dam rating
• 15% random probability

NOTE: The above used to be 25/25/25/25, but it was tweaked to reduce the random element somewhat.

Some Photo-Finish participants adhere to the belief that breeding is pure luck. As anyone can plainly see, the random probability is limited to 15%. Therefore 85% of the foal attributes are determined solely by the sire and dam. Unequivocally, this means that it is better to use the best quality sire and dam you can and to trust in statistical probability to produce a high quality foal.

However as shown above, there are many attributes to be determined for each horse and it is possible that poor ratings in key areas can torpedo a foal's future on the track. These poor ratings can be a result of a random anomaly or because both parents had a common weakness that manifests itself in the foal.

Those who trust in "pure luck" and pick poor studs or severely mismatched breeding pairs are statistically more apt to fail. That is a fact that cannot be disputed.

Who will shine brighter in 2017?

Steel Halo and Elu Thingol were a couple of the best 2yo colts last season.  

Steel Halo had and eye-popping record of 7-6-1-0 and his $4.2M in earnings more than doubled his top competition.  Elu Thingol (what kind of a name is that anyway?) ranked 10th on the list of 2yo racers with a record of 5-4-1-0 and 683K in winnings.

They were both extremely successful, no doubt about that.  But which one will have the better overall career?  Perhaps a comparison of their base numbers at the end of last season may shed some light?

	Gate	Early	Top	Long
	Speed	Speed	Speed	Stamina	Kick
Steel Halo	84	91	91	70	712
Elu Thingol	74	88	88	73	724

What can we infer from these numbers?  My interpretations are below.

In the case of Steel Halo, you can see that he is a very fast starter.  If you watch one of his races, I am very sure that you will see him bolt out of the gate.  He has good early and top speeds, and stamina that is suitable, perhaps, for up to 10F.  But I believe his kick rating may limit his viability to 9F, maybe even 8F.

Elu Thingol is a mediocre starter, which is OK for a racer with stamina of 73.  I believe his average kick rating may hold him back a bit, but he should be capable of at least 12F.  His speed ratings of 88/88 are right in line with what I'd expect for a 11-12F horse.

Keep in mind that these horses may not be mature yet and there may be some change in these numbers.  I have not seen their AR's, but based on what I see here, I would say that Elu Thingol is the more unique talent, and I would expect him to outperform Steel Halo going forward.

I was curious to see how these two stack up against War Machine at the end of his 2yo season in 2005:

	Gate	Early	Top	Long
	Speed	Speed	Speed	Stamina	Kick
Steel Halo	84	91	91	70	712
Elu Thingol	74	88	88	73	724
					.
War Machine	73	89	91	71	897

Good luck to Cold Steel / Steel Halo and Laurabelle / Elu Thingol in 2017.  We'll see who shines the brightest.

She ought to produced a Hell of a good foal...

On The Prowl is a horse that I have wanted for a long time.

Maybe it is the name that captured my fancy. They do that once in a while. In the past, I have been known to buy horses just on the strength of their name! Not the greatest strategy I have ever employed, I must admit.

Perhaps it was her breeding.  Dawn Patrol x Magnificat is a potent combination, and the fact that she is snow white nicely sets her apart nicely from the rank and file.

More than likely it was her early career exploits.  She came out of the gate winning; setting a World Record in her first start!  If that doesn't grab your attention, nothing will.

However it happened... I was transfixed early on and followed her for her entire career. 

Over the years, Chris Campbell, owner of Smokey's Stable, and I had a few brief discussions regarding On The Prowl, but nothing ever came of it until just recently.  Frankly, I'm not even sure how it came about.  We were just chatting via email one day and the next thing I knew, I had traded Shattered Record for On The Prowl, even up.

On paper it looks like a pretty even trade.  Shattered Record had a very respectable career and had ability on different surfaces and distances.  Plus, she is out of Lady's Secret, making her a granddaughter of the great Secretariat.  I was pretty attached to her, but even so, was glad to make the swap for a horse I had desired for many years.

So, best of luck to Chris with Shattered Record.  As for me, On The Prowl will start off by pairing up with War Machine.  Who else?  The foal, colt or filly, will be named Hella Good.

Just thinking aloud...

I was analyzing my racing roster today and came to the following conclusions:

1. It's entirely possible that 6yo male Refractor has peaked and may slip a bit this year.  His PSR's were still strong last season, but he seemed to have lost his nose for the wire.  Regardless of his performance this year, he will join War Machine, Nightwing, and Union Jack as a breeding stallion after the 2017 season.
2. 3yo filly Mona Lisa has the slowest Gate Speed in my racing string, which in my opinion, is the kiss of death for a sprinter.  She was uninspiring as a 2yo and will have a very short leash this season.  She is even slower at the start than Crossbones, who is notorious for bumbling and stumbing out of the gate.
3. Not counting the sprinters, newly acquired 4yo Acquarella may be the fastest horse in my stable.  This guy earned over $1,000,000 last season and was picked up for a song at the auction.
4. I gave up on 4yo filly Boudica after a couple disasterous early performances, even though I knew she was a late maturing type.  I had second thoughts and bought her back late last season for $100.  In six career races, she has never finished better than next-to-last, and yet, I feel that she will turn the corner and be a productive racer in 2017.  I figure I'll get my $100 back, at least.  :)
5. The slowest horse in my stable is 3yo colt Vinyasa, whose AR prophetically reads, "Unfortunately this horse does not have a lot of speed".  However, he also has the highest Kick rating, surpassing even Refractor and Astrapios.  I think this bodes well for the future, especially since Vinyasa has a long peak and his Stamina should continue to improve.
6. Fastest horse at Otsego Farms?  That would be 4yo filly Xtra Gold with a Top Speed of a blazing 94.  French Twist, 3yo colt,  is second fastest, clocking in at 93.
7. I've got three stallions already (see #1 above) and in another year or two, I may have six.  Refractor will definitely stay on, and I'm thinking seriously of keeping both Methy Bus and Alphabet as well.  They are both supremely talented and I think they would be successful as studs. 

Otsego Farms 2017 Preview

Using the strong 2016 season as a springboard, Otsego Farms is anticipating an even more successful 2017.

Owner Jim Webber gave the following quote at his annual pre-season press conference.  "We've got a very strong core of veteran racers, some up-and-coming younger racers, and a bunch of promising 2yo's."

6yo males Refractor and Methy Bus will lead the way, with 4yo colts Astrapios, Jack the Ripper, and Crackerjack, plus 4yo filly Xtra Gold lending solid support.

Webber commented, "We're expecting a bounce-back season from Refractor.  Astrapios should blossom as a top-notch distance threat.  Rip will continue to improve, and Methy Bus will continue to be the quiet, dangerous racer that he has always been."

Big things are also expected from 3yo colts Battlestar, French Twist, and Vinyasa.  "Battlestar in particular has our rapt attention," Webber continued.  He has unbelievable stamina and could see 16F later in the season."

2yo colt Steel Lion (War Machine x Ace Of Grace) and 2yo filly Tricky Woo (Yeager x Domino) appear to be the top candidates among the new racers.  Webber predicted, "Steel Lion is the total package and projects as a 10-12F racer, and Tricky is just plain fast.  She likes to run from behind though... not my favorite strategy for a spinter, but it's what she does.  We'll see how it works out."

Otsego Farms is also extremely pleased to announce the acquisition of 5yo male stayer Alphabet.  Webber gushed, "I've wanted this horse for years and I could not be more pleased that he now wears our blue and gold livery."

With the quartet of Refractor, Astrapios, Alphabet, and Battlestar, Webber thinks that Otsego Farms has assembled the strongest team of 16F racers in Photo Finish history.  "All four have Excellent stamina and having that many in one barn is almost unprecedented."  Otsego Farms actually has a fifth horse with Excellent stamina in untested 3yo Hollands Best.

New broodmare On The Prowl is a welcome addition, plus House of M and Nebula also join the ranks in the breeding shed, providing some fresh blood.

All in all, things are looking good for 2017. 

Cautiously optimistic...

Change comes quickly in the horse racing racket. 

I've had seasons when my veteran racers looked productive and my youngsters showed promise.  Then disaster strikes as inexorably as the iceberg that sunk the Titanic.  All of a sudden, you realize that your string isn't as good as you thought, and you start planning for next season.

Right now, I'm feeling pretty good.  My lookouts have their binoculars trained on the horizon and they are reporting clear sailing ahead.

My veteran racers are rock solid and that is beyond contestation:

• Refractor - He has failed to hit the winners circle for 3 consecutive races, but that is because the competition is fierce, not because he has lost a step.  He has averaged a 117 PSR in those races.  We expect him to continue to be extremely productive well into 2017.
• Methy Bus - Has been in the money for 17 consecutive races.  He's a big time competitor who is always a threat to win any race.  With his expected long peak, he'll certainly be around for at least another season.
• Ettore Fieramosca - From off the scrap heap, he has become the epitome of consistency.  He's not a collector of big purses, but he hasn't finished less than 3rd for me since I've owned him and has 6 victories to his credit.  He probably won't return in 2017, but we're enjoying him now.
• House of M - This mare stacks up 100+ PSR's like firewood.  She is a moneymaker who I can count on to bring home a check every time she runs.  The breeding shed beckons in 2017, but she'll continue to run successfully for the remainder of this season.
• Shatterstar, Xtra Run, You Know My Name, Crossbones - Not marquee producers by any stretch of the imagination, these horses are honest racers nonetheless.  I can typically count on them to be in-the-money on most occasions.

My younger racers show tremendous potential:

• Astrapios - This colt could possibly be the preeminent 2-miler as soon as next season.  His recent 3:17.06 at Colonial Downs announced loud and clear that he is a force to be reckoned with.
• Crackerjack - Steady progress has culminated with a recent GR1 win at the Prix Lupin.  His deep lungs are still developing, making him as 12F candidate with the potential to go 16F in the future.
• Jack the Ripper - He looks extremely steady like his sire; he's probably more of a classic racer though.  His consistency is already a topic of conversation at Otsego Farms.  We expect him to be in-the-money in every race.
• War Factor Ten - Has finished 1st or 2nd in eight of eleven career races, and has only missed a check once.  He's not showing the blazing speed that we expected, but certainly has a nose for the wire.
• Xtra Gold - We purchased this filly from Glenmore Park for a cool $4M, not only for her considerable racing skills, but for her future as a broodmare.  She is fast, and consistent, and a winner.  Gotta love that combination.
• French Twist - This 2yo colt has shown incredible poise and speed by winning his first two starts in very crowded fields.  His raw tools and other intrinsic abilities bode well for the future.

I believe that 10 of these horses will be back for 2017, and with others that are still maturing, I feel that I'll be in good hands next season.

Now, I just need my lookouts to keep a weather-eye open for icebergs. 

Hello?...what is that off the starboard bow, Mate?