On heels of Dubai win, Otsego brings home Melbourne Cup

Jackhammer, the 3yo colt by Union Jack, out of Baby Greyhound, nipped Spartan's 4yo Trickster by a nose to win the 16F Melbourne Cup.

Becoming the first 3yo to win this race since Promised Land in 2004, Jackhammer lead wire-to-wire in a dominating performance, fulfilling the prediction Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber made just a week before when he said, "I'm not sure at this point who else will enter, but you can mark Jackhammer down as your winner, regardless."

It was just three years ago that Refractor, another Otsego horse, won this race.  Refractor currently resides as a stallion at Otsego Farms Stud.

"It was an extremely satisfying win.  We've had lofty expectations for Jackhammer and have been bringing him along slowly up until this point.  Obviously, he'll be in all the big distance races from now on", Webber said as he made his way over to the luxury box occupied by Trickster's connections from Spartan Racing.

"Excuse me, I have to go offer my condolences to Ryan..."

Battlestar wins Dubai World Cup

In what many astute observers considered an upset, the 4yo colt Battlestar, took home the biggest prize of the 2018 racing year... the $3.6 million dollar winners check from the World Cup.

Oddsmakers had the Bevelle Farms superstar Negredo as the favorite at 3-1, followed by a logjam of contestants including filly Secret Dane, Vuvuzela, Gris De Gris, and Battlestar, at 9-2.

As race time approached, a rare Dubai cloudburst left the track sloppy which played right into the hands of Battlestar and Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber, who said, "I was prepared to scratch him, and then down came that sudden and heavy rain.  I knew right then that we had a chance."

Most of the racers, with the exception of Victorian's Big Tail, seemed to tolerate the conditions fairly well, but Webber put it this way, "Maybe they will tolerate it, but the won't revel in it like Battlestar does.  He is a mudder through and through, and not many will beat this fella at 10 furlongs in the mud."

Just prior to the race, Webber was asked who he thought would prove the most difficult to beat.  "Negredo's record speaks for itself, and Gris De Gris is always a handful.  Vuvuzela hasn't been able to find the winner's circle much, but he is very talented and cannot ever be ruled out.  Of course the fillies are a threat as well.  Homo Sapiens Filly is very tough at this distance and on this surface, and Secret Dane is a proven money winner."

When asked about the chances of Venial and Big Tail, the two horses he left out of his brief analysis, Webber didn't mince words.  "Venial has never performed well against top-notch competition and Big Tail is pretty much washed up.  Their owners could save those big entry fees because neither one of those guys has a chance."

Webber continued, "Statistically speaking, Secret Dane, Homo Sapiens Filly, and Battlestar are the speed horses in this race.  Vuvuzela, Gris De Gris, and Battlestar are the stamina horses.  Who do we have in common on those two lists?"  With a satisfied look on his face, Webber added, "Throw in the fact that he loves mud, and it's not difficult to see that Battlestar could win this race."

Which of course he did, staving off a threat by Secret Dane down the stretch.

After the race, a jubilant Jim Webber, with the lovely and ageless Elizabeth Hurley on his arm, hosted a celebration attended by fellow owners, Donny Bujak (Chiquita - Secret Dane) and Finlay Lafleur (FDL - Vuvuzela, Gris De Gris) along with their lavish entourages.  

As rare as Unobtainium and just as valuable

In the movie Avatar, the mineral Unobtanium is a superconductor for energy, which makes it very desirable. It is worth $20 million per kilogram unrefined ($40 million refined) on Earth.

Unobtanium's unique properties and scarcity determine it's value.  Similarly, the elusive Excellent stamina rating in Photo Finish does the same.  The horses that possess it are rare and therefore valuable.

Not all horses with EX stamina are superstars, but the vast majority are very good.  In my opinion, this rating above all others, is the most reliable tool to measure the probability of success.

Currently, there are 3174 horses with the RACER designation.  Of this population, only 30 have Excellent stamina.  That is less than 1% of all racers.  Only 17 stables own at least one horse with EX stamina, with just 6 of those stables owning more than one.  The stables that have more than one horse with EX stamina are:

Firstholme - 2

Rivendell - 2

Sunshine - 2

FDL - 3

Pendfold - 3

Otsego - 7

There are only 5 sires who have produced more than one EX stamina horse.  They are:

Braveheart, FDL - 2

Memcay, Rainbow - 2

Heat Seeker, FDL - 2

A Bus, Port Pirie - 2

Union Jack, Otsego - 3

Only one mare has produced more than a single EX stamina horse.  She is list mare Ticket to Dance.

Rarest of the rare?  Fillies with the Ex stamina trait.  Currently, there are just 2 fillies meeting this criteria. That is just .06% of the current racing population.  These two ultra-rare commodities are Dream d'Oro 3F from Absinthe, and Blank KD 2F, from Godolphin17.

Refractor retired after disappointing run in Gold Cup

6yo Refractor led out for his final race

Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber confirmed via telephone that 6yo stayer Refractor has been retired, effective immediately.

"I learned the hard way with War Machine that you don't continue to run a horse after he is past his prime", Webber said regretfully.  An over-the-hill War Machine churned out a lackluster 11-2-1-2 season as a 4yo in 2007.

Refractor's speed and stamina numbers have declined alarmingly in the past couple of races.  After being a steady 74 in stamina for most of his career, he has dropped to 73, then 71 in his last two races.  With his plummeting speed, continuing to race him is a recipe for disaster.

He'll join War Machine, Nightwing, and Union Jack as a stallion in the Otsego Farms breeding operation.

Bewitched, bothered, and bewildered...

In all the years I've been breeding, I don't think I've ever been as uncomfortable as I am this year.

In the past year, I have been tinkering with my band of mares and while I think I have a talented bunch, it seems like I am suddenly leaning a little bit on miler types rather than distance types.  Since my in-house stallions are exclusively stayers, compatibility issues have been created that have me concerned.

Nova, On The Prowl, Champions Dream, House of M, Nebula, and Revenge Troll were all most adept around 8F, with a couple of them being capable of a little more.  Xtra Gold is a sprinter, which leaves only three mares, In Spirit, Arctic Fox, and Ace Of Grace who are compatible, in my mind, with my stallions. How did this happen?

My stallions for 2017; Nightwing, War Machine, Union Jack, Refractor, and most probably Alphabet, are all Classic to Distance.  You see my dilemma?  Add in the fact that I have acquired two spots with A Bus and another with Heat Seeker and you can see where my discomfort is coming from.

As a general rule, I don't like mixing horses with different distance capabilities.  I think it has the potential to create hybrid's that don't do anything well.  Which begs the question... why am I stockpiling mares that are milers? 

I really have no clue at this point how I am going to arrange my pairs.  With contracts for A Bus (Arctic Fox), A Bus (Ace Of Grace), Heat Seeker (House of M), Rocket (On The Prowl), and Byafraction (Nova) already on the books, and another sprinter stallion needed for Xtra Gold, I am left with just four broodmares for my five in-house stallions.  I want to keep Alphabet on as a stallion, even though his talents are clearly redundant.  If I keep him, I may need to bypass Nightwing altogether as a stud this year.  Unless I acquire another broodmare, which I may do.  Anyone have a distance mare they want to sell?  Domitila, Promised Land...?

Stuff I've been thinking...

It looks like Refractor may have come to the end of the road.  That 4th place finish with the 86 PSR in the G2 Sandown Cup was disappointing and somewhat embarrassing for a horse of his stature.  I am reluctant to retire him mid-season, but I don't want to sully his reputation with a string of low PSR, mid-pack finishes.  His core numbers are down and since he's a 6yo, they are probably not going back up.  He'll get one last race to show if there is anything left in the tank.  A poor showing and he'll be immediately retired.

Three-year-old filly Natalia has me quite excited.  She was a $21,000 auction pickup who garnered little attention, even though she had a record of 2-0-2-0.  Natalia has a nice mix of speed and stamina and put it all together for an easy win in her last race at 8.5F.  

Speaking of 3yo's, I'm very bullish on several others that I have in the stable at the moment.  Battlestar is a stayer who has tremendous upside and will be running in the Belmont this coming weekend.  Epic Journey is another distance colt who may end up not being quite good enough for GR1 competition, but he should easily win a couple million in his career.  Hollands Best has stamina to spare and has fashioned PSR's of 110 and 120 in his last two races.  Last but not least, Zombieslayer looks like he may do some damage on the distance circuit as well.  Keep an eye out for these fellows.

It has been very gratifying to see Alphabet bounce back with nice efforts in his last two races.  He finished 2nd in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, then scored a win in the Sagaro Stakes, with PSR's of 106 and 114 respectively.  Alphabet had a disastrous last place finish in the Breeders Cup Endurance to finish last season, but allowances must be made for the fact that his previous owner decided to enter him in that race on a scant 6 days of rest after winning the Prix Royal Oak on October 26th.  What were ya thinking Foxie?  :)

In Spirit has been a pretty reliable broodmare.  Out of the four racing foals she has produced, two are millionaires and a third will undoubtedly become one as well.  What makes this even more remarkable is the fact that I think I've been sending the wrong kinds of studs to her.  Somehow, I got under the impression that she was a 12F type.  In looking over her numbers recently, I believe that she has the genes for milers.  I'm thinking of a stud in the mold of Big Easy for next year.  Just thinking, mind you.  Her last foal, filly She Bangs, by stayer Sinking Fear, looks to be the real deal.  Maybe she'd be better off going to the spot I purchased with FDL's Heat Seeker?

I was starting to wonder...

Otsego Farms broke out in weeks 11-12 with a record of 12: 4-3-1-2 and earnings of $2.1M.

The 8yo super-veteran Shatterstar won his 16th career race and first G2 since he was a 3yo.  With a career record of 54: 16-15-7, he has moved into second place on the all-time Otsego Farms win list, trailing War Machine's 19 wins, and surpassing Union Jack's 15.

"Keep an eye on 3yo colt Epic Journey.  He's about to bust out.  I predict he'll win his next race", quoted Otsego owner Jim Webber on May 27th in the Photo Finish Forum.  EJ came through in a big way by winning the G2 Aami Vase this past weekend.  He was boxed in quite thoroughly until the final furlong when he found space on the inside and cruised past the competition for the win.

Methy Bus went back to 12F to find his mojo and did so in convincing fashion, winning the G2 San Luis Rey Stakes.  Leading from wire-to-wire, Methy Bus bounced back from a couple poor races with this commanding performance.  With his long-peak, it is entirely possible that he'll be back next year as a 7yo.

In a miniscule 4-horse field which included the flashy FDL colt Heat On Mars, Refractor reined supreme in winning the 12F $1,500,000 G1 Caulfield Cup.  For just the second time in his last 19 races, Refractor went less than 16F, but did so in impressive form.  Strangely, the handicappers put just 114 lbs on Refractor; the lowest weight in his career.  Heat On Mars was obviously slowed by the 126 lbs he carried, but we'll take this win and perhaps try Refractor at 12F again in his next race since the 16F field is so crowded with talent at the moment.

Alphabet, who was hampered by a 29 lb weight disadvantage finished 2nd this week.  Other second place finishers were Crackerjack, who picked up $500,000, and Boudica, who forestalled her departure with a nice performance.

Two year old's Big Bang and Tricky Woo both looked horrible, starting extremely slowly, trailing the fields and finishing well back.  I knew that Tricky was going to be a slow starter, but I was very disappointed to see Big Bang follow suit.

Let's shuffle things up a bit, shall we?

In my opinion, my breeding operation has been somewhat unsuccessful.  The studs I have used have been solid (mostly War Machine, Nightwing, and Union Jack) so I felt that a change in the broodmares might be necessary.

After analyzing all of the mares, I decided that the first ones to be replaced will be Affirm Gal and Domino.  Affirm Gal was an above-average runner who has the genes to produce nice distance foals.  However, up to this point she has not meshed well with my studs.  Domino has actually thrown some nice looking foals, but I don't feel comfortable using her with my distance studs because of her propensity to produce sprinter/milers. Her last foal, and first colt, Tesseract (by Kostya) is actually a distance horse who looks exceptional on paper.

Taking their places for 2018 will be newly acquired Revenge Troll and sprinter Xtra Gold who will probably be retired after this season.

Revenge Troll was available from Endless Vista.  Her distance and surface preferences, speed, and intangibles make her an ideal fit at Otsego Farms.  She will certainly retire after this season and will match with War Machine.

Xtra Gold has a similar style as Domino, but is more talented.  I will not use her with any of my stallions, but will try to inject myself into the sprinting business with her as a foundation mare.

Two other Otsego mares, Second Strike and Nebula, may be available for sale or trade if there is any interest.

Just for fun... a prediction!

Picking winners is never a sure thing.  Or is it?

To try to find out, I decided to take a look at a random race this weekend to see if I can predict the outcome, based solely on the horses current stats.

It had to be a race with limited entries because I didn't want to spend a ton of time analyzing 20 horses.  Also, I didn't want to pick a race with a clear cut favorite.  Scanning down the list, the San Vicente Stakes seemed to meet the criteria.  Six 3yo colts competing at 7F, and I was unfamiliar with all of them.

After my first glance I was sure of one thing; Sisqo Falls and WalkingOnSunshine will not win.  Both are too slow to compete in this race. 

Crash Landing and Last Fine Drop are very similar horses and they will battle for 3rd/4th place.  Flip a coin.

My Boy Brandon and Unrepentant are the cream of this crop and one of these two will win with the other finishing second.  Based on the fact that My Boy Brandon will have a blazing start and should be able to hang on to the lead and Unrepentant will be working on a scant 21 days rest, I'll predict the final outcome as:

1. My Boy Brandon
2. Unrepentant
3. Crash Landing
4. Last Fine Drop
5. Sisqo Falls
6. WalkingOnSunshine

Remember, nothing is foolproof.  If the top two swapped places it wouldn't surprise me.  It's possible that either CL or LFD could creep into second place,  However, I will guarantee that neither SF or WOS will win.

We'll see tomorrow morning!

You may have heard all this before...

BS, ES, TS, ST, KI

Break Speed, Early Speed, Top Speed, Stamina, Kick.

Many of you are very familiar with these ratings.  Some of you know of their existence, but take them with a grain of salt.  Others are totally unaware of them. 

Personally, I think that understanding these numbers is paramount to understanding your horses.

There are a couple dozen other factors that interact and affect your horses performance.  So these five core ratings are not the only things that determine whether you've got a Turf Monster or a Thunder Arctic on your hands.  It is very difficult though, if not impossible, to locate, decipher and interpret all of the other ratings.  Therefore, reliance on these numbers is the easiest way to try to get a handle on your horse.

Break Speed

Sometimes I refer to it as Gate Speed.  Typically ranges from about 65 to 85 with the higher number being faster.  Sprinters would benefit from a BS that is as high as possible.  A horse with an 80+ BS will vault out of the gate and attempt to grab an early lead.  If you are producing sprinters, I would try to breed for a fast break speed and a front running style.  A sprinter who is a rocket-type starter and has a come-from-behind racing style will probably have limited success.  Those two attributes just don't play well together, in most cases.

Early Speed

Usually as low as 83 and tops out at 94.  The importance of this number depends on the style of runner you have and the distance of the race.  For example, if you have a horse who is a front runner, but has horrible break speed and poor early speed, you may have a problem.  He'll be trying to get to the lead, but will be handicapped by a bad start and slow initial speed.  More than likely, he'll labor early at effort level 4 or 5, trying to follow his preferred running style, but will run out of gas and fade badly.  Early speed is less essential on stayers.

Top Speed

TS is the glamour stat.  This has the narrowest band, usually running between 86 and 94.  Whether you have a sprinter, a miler, a classic, or an endurance runner, the higher the number, the better.  Top-notch sprinters will be at 94 and endurance types usually check in at about 87 or 88.

Stamina

I've seen 'em as low as 64 and as high as 74.  This number is the best indicator of what distance you should be running a particular horse at, regardless what the AR says.  There is an article in the Otsego Insider dated March 27th that talks specifically about stamina.

Kick

A misunderstood stat.  This number ranges from 400 to 1200.  Most of the top stayers have a Kick rating above 1000.  But there are sprinters that have gaudy kick numbers as well.  French Twist has a TS of 93 and a stamina of 67, which makes him a sprinter in my mind.  He does have a current kick rating of 1068, which is as high as Refractor!  In my mind, the stamina rating takes precedence, so I believe he'll remain a sprinter, but I expect him to display more steam in the final furlong than the typical sprinter.

Run Missy Run was one of the most dominant sprinters in Photo Finish history.  In his prime, he stacked up WR's and TR's like Lincoln Logs.  His stats at his prime were 77-94-94-66-789.  He was a  better than average starter with blazing early and top speed.  His 66 stamina screamed sprinter, and that's where he did most of his damage, but he had an above-average kick of 789 and that enabled him to stretch successfully up to 8 furlongs.

I randomly chose a horse to analyze.  Hot As A Pepper had a mostly lackluster career as a sprinter, never topping PSR 100.  His numbers at his prime were 77-89-90-71-501, and a couple things stand right out.  1) His speed was too low to compete as a successful sprinter.  2) His stamina of 71 suggested he was more of a classic type, even though he had a below average kick of 501.  He probably wouldn't have panned out in the classic arena either, but one thing was for sure, this bird was no sprinter.

Just some stuff to think about.

Time to swallow my pride...

I'm gonna make this short and sweet.

I overreacted to some criticism the other day.  Most of you know the story.  I think I was somewhat justified by my indignation, but I was certainly hasty when it came to making the decision to quit Photo Finish.

Even though I regretted the decision almost immediately, I was determined to see it through, because I felt it would be an embarrassment to renege on such a dramatic proclamation.

However, in the last 48 hours I have received many touching messages and emails and these have reminded me of what I would be giving up.  I do consider everyone at Photo Finish to be part of an extended family and the fact is... I'd just miss you all too much.

So.... even though there will be smirkers that say, "I knew he wouldn't do it", I'm going to stay.

I'd like to thank those of you that wrote to me.  It meant a lot.  Truly.  (Why do I feel like I'm up at a podium accepting an Oscar or something like that?)

Please don't say anything more nice about me.  I beg you.  I couldn't take it. 

Thanks and I love ya all!  Well, most of you.  Some of you, that is.  A couple of you anyway. 

It's been real...

Otsego Farms has ceased operations effective immediately.

Thanks for all the friendships over the past 10 years.  Cya!

Over before it ever started?

I was all set to roll out a new stat this week. I've been working on it for a while now. It's called Speed Score. It compares each time run with a par score at each surface/distance combination. The par score is the average of every winning time in PF history at each surface/distance combination. There's still some tweaking that can be done with it, but it seems pretty interesting.

Then the first week of racing happened and I'm not sure that I even want to continue with it. There seems to be a "super horse" issue in our little racing world. Occasionally, a horse will top the speed/stamina cap by one. It happens. No big deal. It was pointed out to me this week (I haven't checked all the numbers on my own...yet) that sixteen different horses were over the "cap". A world record was "smashed" this week. By two horses. One was four over the limit and the other three. This really isn't a new phenomena either. Here are a few horses from last year.

Horse A: +2, +3, +3, +2, +2, EVEN, +2, +2, EVEN The two EVEN's happened on tracks rated as "OK" and "No!". If those two were at a "Yes", they would have been plus also. The horse went undefeated.

Horse B: +2, +2, +2, +2, EVEN, +2, +2, EVEN, +2, +2, +2, +2. The two EVEN's came on the only two tracks rated below "Yes". This horse also went undefeated.

These aren't the only two that were consistently over the limit. Let me say this right now. I don't believe for one second that Laurie is cheating. The software is known to be buggy. I know of a year in the past where every horse from certain crops were showing up as a "Fair" in the stamina department. Even if they were something else the year before. Something needs to be done though. The "super horses" need to be reigned in. Either that or do away with the cap. It's just not fair to have horses competing with two different limits. It also takes the fun out of the game.

Otsego to lean heavily on veteran racers

Fourteen racers aged 4yo and older will compete for Otsego Farms in 2017.  

When questioned on this, owner Jim Webber stated, "Oh, it's a record for this stable, no doubt about that.  I can't be positive without checking the records, but I'm pretty sure I've never had more than 7 or 8 at this age racing at the same time."

The stable patriarch is 8yo Shatterstar, who seems to be getting better and better with age.  He fashioned a record of  9-5-2-2 last season and already has broken the Otsego Farms record with 52 career starts.

The triumvirate of 6yo's, Refractor, Methy Bus, and Crossbones are all still producing at high levels.  Refractor will retire after the 2017 season, but in all likelihood the others will continue on as 7yo's in 2018.

The rest of the veteran racing crew consists of:

• 5yo Alphabet, who was recently acquired from Foxies Lodge.
• 5yo Mocha Milkshake, an extremely late maturing type.
• 4yo Acquarella, a steal of an auction pickup.
• 4yo Astrapios, stayer who should make some waves this season.
• 4yo Boudica, has tools to produce positive results.
• 4yo Charlemagne, needs to find winners circle soon.
• 4yo Crackerjack, has real talent at Classic distances.
• 4yo Jack the Ripper, only out-of-money once in 12 career starts.
• 4yo Liam, $500 purchase who may be deadly at pet distance.
• 4yo Xtra Gold, sprinter who will always be in contention.

You never know what you're gonna get with an 8yo, so Shatterstar is a bit of a question mark.  Boudica and Charlemagne are both iffy talent-wise.  Other than those three, I have confidence that all of the others will produce excellent results.

Crazy experiment yields acceptable results

I mentioned previously that I experimented a bit with my Union Jack foals this year.

In the past, I have tried to match him strength to strength, matching him with turf/distance mares such as Ace Of Grace, In Spirit, and Arctic Fox.  This year, willing to go against my conventional wisdom, I bred him just twice and both mares were dirt milers; Nova and Nova's daughter Nebula.

Nova had most of her success at 6F, but she had the chops for a couple more furlongs.  She just fell into that sprinter category and things were going pretty well so she stayed there.  She did crank off a few 100+ PSR's at the end of her career at distances of 8.5F and 9F.  And she was fast! 

Nebula, while not nearly as talented as her mother, was a consistent earner and also could handle 8F, even though she ran mostly in sprints.

Neither one of these mares ever ran on turf.  Why then would I even consider matching then with a distance horse who ran on dirt only once in 46 career starts?

Ummm.  I don't know.

In my defense, Union Jack was actually rated as Good, OK, Good on dirt surfaces.  So, I figured that even if the dirt gene did raise it's head, it shouldn't blow the foals out of the water.  And... if I got Union Jack's stamina or an average of sire and dam, I had at least a 54% chance of getting a Classic or longer foal.

Here's what I got:

Jackanova (2017), 15.3 hand dark brown filly

By Union Jack out of Nova by Housebuster

This horse will mature at the average rate (3-4).

This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.

This horse prefers hard dirt.

This horse is good on soft dirt.

This horse is good in mud.

This horse prefers hard turf.

This horse is ok on soft turf.

This horse is of average soundness.

This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.

This horse stalks the pace.

This horse accelerates like a bullet!

This horse has average speed out of the gate.

This horse has good speed. Could set records.

This horse likes a lot of distance.

Three Rings (2017), 17 hand dark brown filly

By Union Jack out of Nebula by Dubai Gold

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.

This horse dislikes hard dirt.

This horse is poor on soft dirt.

This horse is good in mud.

This horse prefers hard turf.

This horse is poor on soft turf.

This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.

This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.

This horse is a front runner.

This horse has good acceleration.

This horse is a slow starter out of the gate.

This horse has average speed.

This horse looks like it can run at classic distances.

Guardians of the dream world, I would like to see my future...

I'm not one to roll my 2yo's out early.  If they're not sprinters or milers, they are very unlikely to see the track until August or so.  Consequently, I usually don't get a lot of action from my youngsters, since most of them are usually distance types.

For 2017, I have just three 2yo's that will get some early runs and they all look decent on paper...

• Big Bang - colt.  Big N' Rich x Nova.  Miler.
• Numerator - filly.  Reichenbach Falls x Second Strike.  Sprinter.
• Tricky Woo - filly.  Yeager x Domino.  Sprinter.

Big Bang and Numerator both break well, have good acceleration and good speed.  Tricky Woo will be a little trickier to manage.  She also has good acceleration and good speed, but she is a slow starter and runs from behind.  We're concerned that she may run out of track before she can get up to speed.

As far as probable effectiveness goes, I would probably rank them in that exact order, alphabetically.  Big Bang and Numerator could possibly be interchangeable due to BB's very short projected career and N's very long career.

In truth, your guess is as good as mine as to who will step up and who will fall down.

Shocking new theory suggests past Photo Finish seasons have, in fact, occurred

Renowned Ancient Alien expert Giorgio A. Tsoukalos has weighed in on the theory that Photo Finish seasons have occurred in the recent historical past.

"Data recovered from dozens of computers scattered all over the globe seem to confirm that there have been previous seasons of Photo Finish", Mr. Tsoukalos recently stated.  He continued, "We have found incontestable evidence in North America, South America, Europe, and Australia that these culturally diverse people have shared this passion and technology simultaneously in the past, and I predict they will do so again in the future."

Mr. Tsoukalos declined to speculate on when a new season might begin.

My AR can beat up your AR!

I've always found it amusing when the new foal's AR's come out. Back in the day, it could get to be a bit over the top. We would seem to have foal crops with approximately 50 Kentucky Derby winners. Two dozen Triple Crown winners. Hundreds of Eclipse winners. It really was pretty funny. Especially for someone that typically looks over my entire crop for a few minutes and then completely forgets about them until they're ready to race.

She does. Bang, that is.

In her time at Otsego Farms, In Spirit has produced some very solid foals.  Kit Fisto has been the only stinker in the bunch and even he wasn't hopeless, although he has yet to notch a victory.  Her most recent foal, the little bay filly She Bangs, has created some buzz in the stable. 

Sired by the legendary turf stayer Sinking Fear, She Bangs looks like a chip off the old block, except for one thing... she is indifferent on turf.  Odd indeed when you consider that her dam In Spirit also had a distinct fondness for grass.  Ahh, the vagaries of breeding...

She Bangs (2017), 16.3 hand bay filly

By Sinking Fear out of In Spirit by Bellbuster

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will enjoy a long peak performance time, several racing seasons.

This horse is good on hard dirt.

This horse prefers soft dirt.

This horse is good in mud.

This horse is ok on hard turf.

This horse is poor on soft turf.

This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.

This horse has average ratability.

This horse always comes from midpack.

This horse accelerates like a bullet!

This horse has average speed out of the gate.

This horse has good speed. Could set records.

This horse likes a lot of distance.

Matures quickly, long career, bullet acceleration, good speed, likes distance... what's not to like? 

Yes sir.  I've got a crush on this girl.  I'm gonna walk right out to the gazebo and carve a heart with the letters JW + SB in it.

Quick Hits...

Battlestar has Triple Crown aspirations.

Three year old colt Battlestar (Nightwing x In Spirit) has the potential to do some damage on the 10F-12F circuit this season.  He has a fairly uncommon combination of speed, stamina, and kick which should set him apart.  I won't divulge the exact numbers, but he is the only horse I have which fits into this category.  Unfortunately, he is rather picky on hard surfaces, which may cause an occasional scratch.  I will try to set his schedule so that a run at the American Triple Crown is possible.

Liam, the 4yo colt acquired from Whisperwood late last season, has been a bit of a forgotten commodity at Otsego Farms.  In fact, I just noticed that he was not even listed on the spreadsheet listing all of my horses.  The fact is, I am very high on this fellow, especially after he won his first and only race since we acquired him.  With numbers of 79/92/92/67/1000, he has more ability than a sprinter, distance-wise, but has exceptional speed for a miler.  We'll target him at 7F-8F, expecting very good results.

We're looking forward to seeing unraced 3yo filly Slaya (A View to a Kill x Shattered Record) hit the track later this season.  She is a very late maturing type, not hitting her peak until age 4-5, but we'll see where she's at with a try later in the season.  She looks like a multi-surface Classic type racer.

Mona Lisa (War Machine x Second Strike), a slow-starting sprinter with questionable speed and poor stamina, will be on an extremely short leash this season.  One start is all she'll get.  A PSR less than 75 and she's gone.

Ironically, Charlemagne, the 4yo colt who is a full brother to Mona Lisa, has almost worn out his welcome as well.  He has some ability, but has also been a disappointment.  I acquired their mother, Second Strike, for the sole purpose of breeding with War Machine.  She had a nice career and her AR looked to be a great fit with the Triple Crown winner.  The results were so pathetic though, that I decided to never pair her with War Machine again.  Then two foals later (Reichenbach Falls, Union Jack), I arranged a swap for this past breeding season with Foxies Lodge.  I used Sovereign Belle (War Machine), and she used Second Strike (Jenny's My Gal).