We go long...

Along with Superheroes of  Racing, "We go long" has been one of Otsego Farms taglines for years.  It stems from our predilection towards breeding and acquiring distance racers.

Given this fondness for stayers, it should come as no surprise that the Breeders Cup Endurance is our favorite race.  In the last five years, we have had entries every year...

We hit the jackpot in 2018 when Otsego Farms became the first stable ever to finish 1st/2nd in this race.  3yo Le Chiffe, acquired as a unraced 2yo, and homebred 3yo Jackhammer pulled off this improbable feat.  Olmo Dorado had come close in 2013 with a 1st/3rd by Vindictive and Novice.  

In 2017, his final racing season, 5yo Alphabet finished 4th.  Ironically, recently acquired Sisqo Falls finished 3rd in this race.

5yo Refractor, purchased as an underachieving 3yo from Rainbow, finished 3rd in 2016, in his third and final attempt.

In 2015, Refractor finished 2nd.  Alphabet, who would later join our farm in a transaction with Foxies Lodge, won this race as a 3yo.

As a 3yo in 2014, Refractor won the Endurance, in just his 7th race for our stable.

So in the last 5 years, our record in this race has been 6-2-2-1-1.

Prior to the last 5 years, the last Otsego Farms horse to compete in the Endurance was Nightwing, who finished 2nd, 2nd, and 4th, in three consecutive appearance in 2004, 2005, and 2006.

Barring injury, we expect both Le Chiffre and Jackhammer to return in 2019.  Le Chiffre will attempt to become the third horse to go back-to-back, with Braveheart and Vindictive being the first two to accomplish this feat.

Timing is everything

We've probably all been there before; the horror of giving up on a horse prematurely.  There is nothing more frustrating than dumping a racer, then watching it string together wins at another stable.

Fortunately, most of us have also been on the positive side of this kind of transaction.

I purchased 6yo male Acquarella at the beginning of his 4yo season.  At that time, he was already a million dollar winner, including $630,000 in winnings in his last 5 races.  Inexplicably, he ended up on the sales page, and even more inexplicably, he did not receive a single bid until I purchased him at the last moment for $21,000.  In the two seasons since, he has produced a record of 17-7-2-2-4 with earnings of $750,000.

There are stables that would scoff at those numbers because Acquarella is not a G1-type racer.  However, I get satisfaction by winning races and making good investments, regardless of the level of the racer.

Which is why I recently purchased the 5yo male Sisqo Falls for $10,000.  He has won $230,000 in his last four races, and doesn't appear spent to me, with two consecutive sub-2:00 10F appearances.  I envision him being a force on the G3 Classic tour in 2019.  Can't wait to see!

One more season for old warrior

Eight year old Methy Bus (A Bus x Annibynnol Meth), returns in 2019 for his final racing season, hoping to cap his illustrious career by capturing his 20th victory.  With a current record of 49-18-11-6, he needs two wins to achieve that lofty goal.

In 2018, he managed just one win despite a sparkling average of 108 PSR in 8 starts.  Owner Jim Webber stated that Methy Bus will concentrate on G2/G3 races this season in hopes of securing a couple more wins.

"He still has ability, but perhaps at age 8 he would be better off to avoid the kind of competition he will see at GR1 races," Webber confided.

According to the connections at Otsego Farms, Methy Bus will be joining their ranks of breeding stallions at the end of the year.  Although he has performed on turf in 47 of 49 career races, Webber says that owners of prospective dirt broodmares should not overlook this stallion, "He prefers turf, no doubt, but he is OK on all aspects of dirt.  I personally don't plan of shying away with dirt mares."

The ship is sailing...

My mare Nova is 14 years old and only has a few foal-bearing years left.  In spite of my love for this horse, I am losing patience with her as a broodmare and have contemplated selling or trading her to another stable.

She was the first foal born at Otsego Farms (Housebuster x Raging Fever) and had a really stellar career with a record of 30-9-9-3 and $1.7M in earnings.  She was incredibly consistent, with 80% of her races being above PSR 100 and only one race being below PSR 96.  She missed racing immortality by a whisker when she was nosed out by Victory Dance in the 2008 Breeders Cup Sprint.

In spite of her credentials, she has been mediocre in the breeding shed.  As of now, she has had 7 offspring hit the track.  I'll take Scarlet Witch out of the equation, as she is too inexperienced at this point.  

Of the other 6 horses, three (Warp Factor Ten, French Twist, Nebula) are/were decent producers, although none can be described as great.  The other three (Quasar, Ultron, Big Bang) can only be described as disasters.

She has consistently been paired with superior studs (Run Missy Run, Deaux Francais, Dubai Gold, Revenge, War Machine, Big N' Rich) so you would have thought that some real talent might eventually be produced.

In order to shake things up a bit, I paired her with the true distance horse Union Jack in 2017.  The result was the filly Jackanova, a distance horse with good speed. Who knows how that will pan out? Foxie's Lodge used her as a broodmare in 2019 with another distance horse, Jenny's My Gal as the stud.

So... my results with this great mare have been poor.  I'd consider finding her a new home if anyone is interested.  Perhaps someone else can tap her hidden potential as a broodmare.

At the moment, phasers are set to stun.

OK... so maybe I'm overreacting a bit.  I really don't have a huge problem with horses that are velocity challenged... as long as they are not Sprinters, Milers, or Classic racers.

Distance horses, and I mean horses that are 16F capable, usually have lower speed ratings, which within the mathematical breeding calculations of Photo Finish, accommodate the higher stamina ratings I crave.  

Occasionally though, a horse crops up that has a freakishly low speed rating that even loads of stamina and kick cannot overcome.  My mare Blank KD comes to mind.  Even stamina of 74 and kick of 1250 could not float that sluggish 84 speed rating.  She would have been unbeatable at races of 20F though.

As I said, in my stable, which breeds for true stayers, low speed doesn't necessarily spell doom.  Even so, 50% of my 2019 crop has the "Unfortunately" rating?  Seriously?  

As I thought about it more, I realized that the negativity portrayed in the AR was actually a good thing.  This rating will probably mean that 87 will be the high water mark for speed for these six foals.  An 87 rating will allow for a possible 74 in stamina, which is the holy grail for distance horses... exactly what I want.  

With that in mind, I decided to change my poster...

Hoping for a glitch in the Matrix

I had a pretty good thing going in 2018 with Battlestar and Jackhammer.  They both won big races and earned $4.5M and $3.8M, respectively.

It seemed like the most natural thing in the world to duplicate the breeding and see if I could catch lightning in a bottle for a second time.

Battlestar was sired by Nightwing, out of In Spirit.  Since the old veteran stallion is still kicking and the mare is also owned by Otsego Farms, I decided to give them a go again.  The resulting foal is a colt by the name of Darkstar, who projects as a big, strong stayer with perhaps more stamina, but less speed than his brother.

Union Jack and Baby Greyhound combined to produce Jackhammer in 2015.  Jackhammer is a compact male with tremendous stamina.  I had to reacquire Baby Greyhound to make this match possible, and I was able to do so for a paltry $10,000 from Endless Vista.  The foal is a massive colt named Redeemer, a distance horse with a strong preference for turf.

It'll be a while before we see if this strategy pays off.  I'll just have to wait and see.  

Best breeder in Photo Finish?

Anxiously awaiting results of best breeder award

The title of best breeder is difficult to assign.

  

Some stables breed sparingly, which limits their opportunity to be anointed as "the best".  Others set their pairings up haphazardly or just for fun, not putting much thought into it.  Still others may be just plain lucky.  

Donny at Chiquita Lodge has been prolific, putting himself atop the TOP BREEDERS list many times in the past few years.  But what exactly does that mean?

That list sorts stables strictly by earnings of homebred horses.  That is a very important measuring stick, no question.  But does that necessarily mean that Chiquita Lodge, who had homebred earnings of $25.9M was the top breeder?  It does if earnings is the only criteria.

Out of curiosity, I looked at the top 10 stables on the list for 2018 and ranked them 1 (best) to 10 (worst) in the following categories, giving each category equal weight.

• Average earnings per start
• On-the-board percentage
• Win percentage

Then I averaged the three scores and came up with a ranking of the "best" breeders as far as 2018 results were concerned.  Using AEPS as a tiebreaker, they are:

1. Rainbow +1
2. Snowbank Farm +3
3. Golden Acres +6
4. Otsego Farms +6
5. Whisperwood -1
6. Chiquita Lodge -5
7. Olmo Dorato +1
8. FDL Lodge -5
9. Newsham Lodge -2
10. Foxies Lodge -4

The +/- shows the number of spots a stable went up or down from their position on the TOP BREEDERS table.

What exactly does all of this mean?  Nothing!  Just for grins.

The enigma of Kid Shelleen

Kid Shelleen, 3yo chestnut colt by War Machine out of Nebula, has all of the tools to make it big.

I was very excited by early reports received from the trainers; size, speed, stamina, obedience... he seemed to have everything going for him.  Analysis of his numbers during his first year on the track confirmed all that I was told.  Why then, did this colt struggle to a record of 5-0-1-0 during his 2yo season?  Why was his best PSR just a moldering 85?

In his fifth and final race of the season, the 8F Texas Stallion Stakes Juvenile, the numbers were 79-92-92-69-1030.  Excellent to be sure, and certainly worthy of better than a middle-of-the-pack 5th place finish.  

The winner of that race, Der Rise, had numbers of 74-87-88-72-974.  Those look very good for a 2yo stayer, but in an 8F race such as the Texas Stallion Stakes, I would have thought that the Kid's numbers translated better.  

In fact, Kid Shelleen had the best speed numbers in the race, by a fair margin, and stamina/kick ratings that would be more than adequate for a mile.  

I still have hopes that this colt will be something special.  The numbers usually don't lie.  Sometimes though, buried deep in the stats, like an undecipherable hieroglyphic, is a weakness that will prevent a horse from attaining success.  We'll see in 2019...

Jackhammer to open season in Japan

4yo Jackhammer will become just the third horse in Otsego Farms history to enter the Japan Cup.  

He'll have 5 weeks of rest on race day and will be on his preferred surface, which makes him a solid contender, regardless of the competition.  Three year olds have dominated this race since it was added to the Photo Finish schedule in 2011, winning six times in eight tries, but the connections at Otsego think that Jackhammer has the strength to overcome the additional weight he will carry.

Battlestar ran in the Japan Cup in 2018, and finished a disappointing 7th.  He disliked the going in Japan, but rebounded nicely in his next start, winning the lucrative Dubai World Cup.

A View to a Kill finished 2nd in 2011, well behind the legendary Heat Seeker.  Interestingly, these 3yo's finished 1-2 in this race despite of a skimpy 2-pound weight advantage over the rest of the field.  For the next 2 years, no 3yo's competed in this race.  Then in 2014, Pluto became the next 3yo to win, and did so with a 26-pound weight advantage over 2nd place finisher Serengeti and a 28-pound advantage over the favorite, Capro Espiatorio, who finished 4th.  

Three year olds have dominated this race and enjoyed huge handicap advantages ever since then, prompting Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber to state, "Yes, I am a little concerned about the weight disparity.  Jackhammer will have to lug an extra 25 lbs or so and that may tell in the final couple furlongs."

Another banner year in 2019?

Last season will be a tough one to top.  With $16.5M in winnings in just 211 starts, 2018 was the most productive season in Otsego Farms history.  Fortunately, we are well-stocked with veteran and young racers, so 2019 holds the promise of similar success.

Dubai World Cup winner 5yo Battlestar will be joined once again by Melbourne Cup winner 4yo Jackhammer, and Breeders Cup Endurance winner 4yo Le Chiffre to form a triumvirate that must be respected, if not feared.

Especially exciting is the fact that in my opinion, we have not one, not two, but three (perhaps four) bona fide Kentucky Derby candidates: 

Helikaon (War Machine x In Spirit) 5-2-1-2

He's got the chops, since his sire was a Kentucky Derby winner and his half-brother Battlestar won the Dubai World Cup last season.  Helikaon loves dirt and has the speed stamina combination to make a run at this race.

Rico Suave (Find A Way x False Demon) 4-2-1-0

He's a stamina freak who has just enough speed to deal with the faster horses that will show up for the Derby.  Sire was supremely talented, but a little inconsistent, a trait that Rico does not seem to emulate.

Infinity World (Union Jack x Wait a While) 6-1-1-0

Lapsus (Sinking Fear x Alien Landscape) 6-2-2-0

Both of these fellows have the potential to be Derby contenders with Infinity World being a little more comfortable on dirt.  

All four of these colts will start the season on the Derby trail.  I'm sure I'll have a good idea who belongs and who does not by mid-March on the racing calendar.

Hope for the future

Le Chiffre and Jackhammer fly around the final curve in the Breeders Cup Endurance.

Recently, I sold off three established racers, Astrapios, Crackerjack, and Jack the Ripper.   I did this because of a need for stall space, and because I feel confident about the talent I have coming up through the ranks.

World Cup winner Battlestar will be returning along with Le Chiffre and Jackhammer, the 1-2 finishers in the 2018 Breeders Cup Endurance.  These three, along with support from Hollands Best and the unheralded but talented Zombieslayer, will give me an extremely strong presence in the distance races.  Veteran sprinter French Twist will also return.

But the real excitement comes from the development of several youngsters who should win plenty of races in 2019 as 3yo's...

Helikaon 4-2-1-1 (War Machine x In Spirit) - He will be on the fast track to the Kentucky Derby.  He has an outstanding speed/stamina combination, loves dirt, and doesn't mind mixing it up on the track.

Infinity World 4-0-1-0 (Union Jack x Wait a While) - Developing stayer who will stretch out to longer distances next year.  We're expecting a major leap in his ability.

Kid Shelleen 3-0-0-0 (War Machine x Nebula) - He's been slow to develop, but has really spectacular numbers for a 2yo... probably better than stablemate Helikaon.  We are expecting a breakout performance at any time.

Lapsus 5-2-2-0 (Sinking Fear x Alien Landscape) - Acquired in a deal with Olmo Dorato that sent broodmare On The Prowl to Italy, this horse is definitely the real deal.  He will also follow a path to the Kentucky Derby.

Rico Suave 2-0-1-0 (Find A Way x False Demon) - He has outstanding stamina and could possibly mature into a 2-miler, but we see him more in the 11-12F category.

Simply Charming 5-2-0-1 (Kennys Charm x Domino) - This big, strapping filly hasn't shown much raw speed yet, but she has proven to have a nose for the wire.  

Battlestar thinks he's better than you...

Battlestar is a gifted horse.  In winning his last two races, the Dubai World Cup and the Massachusetts Handicap, he has made a splash and become noticed by the PF community.

He has a nice combination of speed and stamina, and augmented by his high kick rating, this creates a very formidable opponent at 9 to 12 furlongs.  However, he is not without chinks in his armor.

He is extremely picky on running surfaces, disliking both hard dirt and hard turf.  This has caused many scratches, as evidenced by having only 14 career starts, even though he is in the middle of his 4yo season.

Also, he has his sire's maddening disdain for the competition.  Nightwing was a physically imposing racer who usually towered over his fellow racers.  He had a natural superiority complex and would simply not work at the end of a race, trusting in his raw ability to carry the day.  Unfortunately, this led to 13 second place finishes, with many of them being of the "nipped at the wire" variety.

Battlestar has shown the same tendency.  His last two wins were by half a length and a nose, and both were touch-and-go right to the end.  During a 6-race stretch as a 3yo, he finished 2nd five times!

He has generally completed his races with a surplus of stamina, proving that he could have expended a little more effort to secure the victory.  Unfortunately, like his sire, he doesn't think he should have to exert himself to beat the likes of his inferior competition.  Hopefully that arrogance will not cost him (and me) in his next big race.  

I'm not too worried though.  Battlestar is better than you.

AR says you like distance, why aren't you cooperating?

First things first... when you go into the race files, the line of horse ratings starts like this:

Trophy,Trophy, 75 , 88 , 91 , 70 , 9730.087 , 7667.732 , 1060

Gate Speed - 75

Early speed - 88

Top Speed - 91

Stamina - 70

Kicks - 1060

I haven't any idea what the rest of the data is down the line.  I have been meaning to look into it but haven'y found the time yet.

These rating usually fall into these ranges.  They may even trend higher or lower, but I have not seen anything beyond these ranges.

Gate speed - 58 to 84

Anything below 70 is a pretty slow starter.  Numbers above 80 are very fast starters.  Obviously is is best to be a fast starter if you are a sprinter.  All the speed in the world will not help a sprinter with a 62 gate speed.  A lower gate speed is less critical for a stayer, but there are still combinations that will cripple a distance horse also.  For instance, a stayer who is an extremely slow starter that likes to run on-lead is a bad combo.  He'll kill himself trying to get the lead and wither at the end, especially if he also has poor acceleration.

Early Speed - 82 to 94

Common sense dictates that higher is better.  A horse who is a poor starter who also has poor early speed may find himself out of contention in the first furlong.  Optimally, sprinters will be over 90 here, preferably 92 or higher. I have seen successful distance horses with an 85 in this spot, although 86 or 87 is more typical.

Top Speed - 84 to 94

Same as Early Speed, but more important because the horse will presumably use this rating for a greater percentage of the race.  Top sprinters will check in at 93 or 94, Milers 91 or 92, Classics around 89 or 90, and Stayers at 87 to 88.  Of course there are always exceptions to these rules based on the other attributes the horse does or does not possess.  For instance, Ton of Luck was very successful as a miler with numbers of 80, 90, 90, 69, 1035.  Because of his exceptional kick rating, he was able to compete against and beat slightly faster horses.

Stamina - 64 to 75

Generally speaking:

64-66  SPRINTER

67-69  MILER

70-71  CLASSIC

72-75  DISTANCE

As I said in an article in my blog many moons ago, these ratings are the first step in determining your horses distance ability.  Depending on the aggregate effect of all of their basic and miscellaneous ratings, horses can and do thrive in categories one step removed in each direction.  Going beyond that is virtually impossible.  For instance, a horse with a 65 stamina is not going to compete in Classic races.  Ever.

Kick - 400 to 1250

In my opinion, this rating determines the horses staying power at the end of a race.  The higher this number is, the better, regardless if you are a sprinter, stayer, or anywhere in between.  An abnormally low kick rating, say under 500, is an extreme liability.

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All of these numbers can vary a little bit from race to race depending on rest and other factors.  But, they are generally fairly static once a horse reaches maturity.  Do not expect a 4yo horse that has been tracking with a 67 stamina to suddenly improve to a 70.  It will not happen.

Determining what kind of horse you have on your hands can take time.  By looking at race files by the hundreds you will start to get the flavor of what makes some horses great and others horrible.  

At his peak, when War Machine won the Dubai World Cup in 2006, his numbers were 75, 89, 91, 71, 975.  This is a horse who had the speed of a miler and the stamina of a stayer... little wonder why he blew away his competition in 2006.

A giant among sprinters was Run MIssy Run.  When he won the 2010 Breeders Cup Sprint, his numbers were 76, 93, 94, 67, 900.  Loads of speed and a finishing kick that said adios to competitors at the wire were the reasons that he was so dominating.

It doesn't take a genius to see why these horses were titans in their day.  For most horses though, you have to consider a little more deeply and combine that with the info you can glean from the AR.  In this way you can make a reasonable assessment of the horses abilities, liabilities, and prospects.

In his second race as a 2yo, Battlestar had numbers of 78, 89, 90, 71, 1001.  I knew at that moment, by looking at this immature horse with those colossal numbers, that I had a monster on my hands.  I had to temper my expectations a bit because of his surface pickiness, but I knew he was destined for great achievements.  He rewarded my patience by winning the World Cup this year. 

I'm sure any of you could have ascertained that Battlestar was worth keeping.  That is not the point.  The point is that you should be analyzing your own horses and their strengths and weaknesses.  By doing this, you will stop trying to drive a square peg into a round hole like I have seen happen so many times.

There was a 6F race for 2yo's this weekend and I took a look at the top four finishers out of curiosity.  Here is how they stacked up in order if finish:

Shadowfax  74, 90, 90, 68, 835

Categorise  74, 91, 93, 66, 493

Commando ACOG  72, 89, 89, 70, 684

Mogul  76, 91, 92, 66, 443

What I envision here is that Shadowfax and Commando ACOG are not gonna be sprinters.  They did well in this race because they have stamina and kick ratings that are on the high side for 2yo horses. Their stamina and kick rating are not going to go down and their speed is not going to rise appreciably; meaning that after age 2, they are not gonna have a lot of success at the sprinting game.

Conversely, Categorise and Mogul are sprinters and they will remain sprinters.  Their speed ratings are very high for young horses and they may yet improve a notch or two, and that means that their stamina ratings are destined to stay in the sprinter, possibly miler range.

The reason I know this, is that the total of the top speed and stamina rating will usually not exceed 161.  It has happened on occasion, temporarily, when all of the stars line up perfectly for a horse in a given race.  But 161 is the theoretical combined limit of these two ratings.  So, if Mogul increases his speed at maturity to 94, the highest his stamina will see is 67.  Get it?  He is a sprinter.  Hopefully, his kick will get a little higher or he will be a sprinter who is limited to 6 furlongs.

OK... That is a crash course.  Use this info as you will.  If you have any questions.  Let me know.

Kick - The Misunderstood Stat?

I had a conversation with Chris Campbell of Smokey's Stable today and it prompted me to publish this article, which is basically just a reiteration of the emails we exchanged.

Gate Speed, Early Speed, Top Speed, and Stamina are all easy to comprehend, but that Kick rating seems to confound people and there are even differences of opinion as to it's effect and worth.

Some people do not give the Kick rating much credence, but I think it is very important, and the higher the number, the better.

The distance line on the old AR's was originally determined by using the kick number.  So, if you had a horse with a kick of 1000, it would show up as liking a lot of distance, even though the stamina number may have only been 67, which is more indicative of a sprinter.

My horse, French Twist is a perfect example.  He has a high kick of 1068, but his stamina of 67 limits him to being a miler at best, regardless of the fact that his AR says he like distance.  No way he could make even 9-10 furlongs competitively.

I like a high kick though, even in a sprinter/miler, and I try to breed for it.  A high number lessens the possibility that they will run out of gas in the last furlong.  I have seen horses who have great speed numbers, but because they are handicapped by a minuscule kick rating, they can't make more than 5F, even though they may have an adequate stamina rating.  I've had mature horses that have had Kick ratings under 500 and they have all been unable to compete above 5F.

Methy Bus has a great stamina of 73, so you'd think he might make 16F comfortably.  He can't because his kick is only 742.  In fact, he seems to top out at about 12F.  Astrapios has a 72 stamina, but he can run sub-3:19 at 16F because his kick is up in the 1150 range.

It's really not complicated... whether you are a sprinter or a stayer, the higher the number, the better.  So... don't make it more difficult than it is.  

How much is too much?

Everyone has there own opinion on how much a horse might be worth and a lot of factors go into each person's opinion.

How much racing potential does the horse have?  If it's an older racer, is there still gas in the tank?  Do I think a seemingly mediocre horse has just been mismanaged and I can turn it around?  Maybe it's a proven winner who is on the downslide but I want to add him to my stable as a source of prestige?

It may be a needed stallion or broodmare candidate, or perhaps it is just the offspring of a stallion or mare that I admire.  Maybe I just like the name...

The point is, how I perceive the value may differ vastly from how another stable owner feels.

When Pointgiven Stables paid $6,000,000 for Gradient, I thought the man had lost his mind.  However, it turned out to be a tremendously shrewd investment.  

We've all seen bad deals go down.  Glenmore Park paid $5,510,000 for the stallion Imperiosso, an above average racer who won the 2014 Dubai World Cup, but otherwise had a fairly checkered racing career. Bought for that exorbitant price strictly as a breeder, Imperiosso, who has not sired a foal since 2016, now resides at Endless Vista, having generated virtually zero in breeding fees for Glenmore Park.

Showing that turnabout is fair play, our friends at Glenmore Park got the better end of a deal two years later when yours truly at Otsego Farms paid $4,000,000 for the filly Xtra Gold.  I thought Xtra Gold had a couple more big seasons of racing in her, but that proved to be incorrect.  She was hit-and-miss, winning just $350,000 in her only season of racing at Otsego Farms.  Hopefully, she will pan out as a broodmare so I can recoup the large investment I made.  It is possible that some of you may think that $4M is not too much to pay for a broodmare with her potential. You see?  We all see things differently.  My best mare is In Spirit.  She produces winners and she cost me a reasonable $400,000.  So yes, I think I overspent on Xtra Gold.

I have shaken my head in admiration and in disbelief at some of the deals I've seen over the years.  No matter how educated we all  get... there will always be purchases and sales that defy our own perception of logic;  because we all see things differently, don't we?

On The Prowl is on the move

The 2yo colt Lapsus caught my eye recently.  After performing the appropriate due diligence, I decided that I wanted to own him.

The only problem was that he was owned by Ettore at the Italian stable Olmo Dorato. Ettore is very reasonable, but being the owner of the largest stable in the Photo Finish universe, he obviously doesn't need my money.  A trade for breeding stock was what he had in mind.  He was interested in broodmares Xtra Gold and On The Prowl.  

I bought Xtra Gold from Glenmore Park for $4M in an attempt to bull my way into the sprinting game.  I have way too much invested in this mare to let her go, so she was off the table.

On The Prowl was something I was willing to discuss because she is 13 years old now and has a more limited breeding window than 5yo Xtra Gold.  On the other hand, she was a horse I coveted for a long time, before my good friend Chris Campbell at Smokey's Stable traded her to me for broodmare Shattered Record.  I was loathe to give her up.

With the high prices that good mares are commanding these days, I didn't think it made sense to trade On The Prowl for an untested 2yo, even-up.  I countered to Ettore; asking for $750k and Lapsus, half hoping that he would turn me down... but he took the deal.

Lapsus is a talented classic-type runner in the mold of Methy Bus, at least that is how I see it.  I hope I'm right, because On The Prowl is a helluva nice mare and I'll miss having her in the breeding shed.

They told me..."I got the stamina. I can close." I believed them.

I've been trying to tweak my lineup of broodmares over the past couple of years because I have a need for more true distance mares. They have proven elusive, but I made a couple of acquisitions recently that will temper that need somewhat.

It's true that my two new girls are not marquee broodmares like Dancing Delaware or Domitila, but they have strengths that may bring out the best in Otsego stallions such as Refractor, Union Jack, Alphabet, and Nightwing.  They have stamina.  Lots of it... and at levels that are rare for mares.

Blank KD, a 3yo who was languishing at Endless Vista, has a 73 stamina rating and a lofty kick of 1250, which is the highest kick rating I have ever seen.  She had a terrible record on the track in her first 8 races with a plethora of last or near-last place finishes.  The reason?  She is slow and the races she entered were way too short.  I must admit that I was concerned when I entered her at 12F in her Otsego Farms debut and she still finished last.  But I concluded that even that was too short for her.  I was vindicated by her last race when she put up a 100 PSR at 16F and had plenty of strength left at the finish.

I've had four-year-old Dream d' Oro in my sights for a couple seasons.  She has had a somewhat better racing career than Blank KD up to this point, but my interest in her was as a broodmare.  With 71 stamina and 1086 kick, a very long projected career, and surface PREFER's on everything, she will be perfect match for my stallions.  She also had a mediocre Otsego debut at 12F, before showing her true colors with a 3rd place finish at 16F with a sparkling 102 PSR.

Whether I retire them both at the end of this season, or run them for another year depends on how they perform on the track.  But as I said, I didn't buy them for their racing skill.  I bought them for their stamina.

Shot by my own gun...

I have been one of many people who have been vocal over the years concerning inappropriate entries in big races.  In some races, systems have been instituted to prevent this problem.  Now I find myself affected by these very restrictions that I endorsed, and I'm understanding, but not happy.

I'd like to enter Jackhammer in the Kentucky Derby.  But, despite his 7-3-0-1 record and recent win of the GR1 Melbourne Cup, he does not qualify.  It's completely my own fault, of course.  I hadn't really thought of him as a Derby contender, so I didn't pay particular attention to his schedule in that regard, and hence he has zero points towards qualification.

Tragically, this is a race he could win.  He prefers hard dirt and has HRF numbers that are across-the-board identical to Derby favorite Olympia, except that Jackhammer has a better kick.

So, he will take a different road.  Perhaps entering the Derby Italiano against stable mate Le Chiffre.  I will say this though, if Olympia wins both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, he will have to earn the Triple Crown by beating Jackhammer in the Belmont.

Two year old spotlight

Based on AR info alone, filly Simply Charming is the 2yo that I would have predicted for early success this year.  After all, she matures quickly and projects to be a miler, hence she would have some early opportunities.  But opportunities alone do not guarantee success.  Fortunately, she was blessed with some ability as well.

She has prefer x 3 on dirt surfaces, and no apparent weaknesses in her resume'.  She did win her first race with numbers of 76, 90, 91, 67, 448; good speed for a debut race, and with an expected improvement in stamina and kick, she may have a future that holds promise.

Outside of Simply Charming, the two new Otsego racers that are consensus picks by our training staff are the colts Helikaon and Makes Me Wonder.

Helikaon (War Machine x In Spirit) is a dual surface distance horse.  In training, he is showing very good speed, and above average acceleration.  Plus, he is out of our most successful mare, In Spirit, who has produced Crossbones, Crackerjack, and most notably, recent World Cup winner Battlestar.

Makes Me Wonder (Nightwing x Affirm Gal) is also capable of running on dirt or turf equally well.  He doesn't have the speed of Helikaon, but is extremely strong and will probably be running longer distances. He is a chip off the old block, with his sires penchant for dramatic, come from behind finishes.

When asked what 2yo he had highest hopes for, Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber wasted no time and no extra words in saying, "Kid Shelleen."

Asked why, he snapped, "I like his name."

On heels of Dubai win, Otsego brings home Melbourne Cup

Jackhammer, the 3yo colt by Union Jack, out of Baby Greyhound, nipped Spartan's 4yo Trickster by a nose to win the 16F Melbourne Cup.

Becoming the first 3yo to win this race since Promised Land in 2004, Jackhammer lead wire-to-wire in a dominating performance, fulfilling the prediction Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber made just a week before when he said, "I'm not sure at this point who else will enter, but you can mark Jackhammer down as your winner, regardless."

It was just three years ago that Refractor, another Otsego horse, won this race.  Refractor currently resides as a stallion at Otsego Farms Stud.

"It was an extremely satisfying win.  We've had lofty expectations for Jackhammer and have been bringing him along slowly up until this point.  Obviously, he'll be in all the big distance races from now on", Webber said as he made his way over to the luxury box occupied by Trickster's connections from Spartan Racing.

"Excuse me, I have to go offer my condolences to Ryan..."