8-2-3-0. I can live with that.

Refractor pulls away down the stretch.

Having gone close to a month without a win, I was glad to see a couple of them this weekend to get that monkey off my back.

Refractor, who was probably running beneath his station, won the 13F AJC Chairmans Handicap.  He was the prohibitive favorite and carried 17 lbs more than the closer competitor.  I have been trying to find longer races for Refractor and this one happened to be in the right place and right time.  He has posted his two best speed scores at 13F and 12.5F.  We think he may do his best work at 16F, and that is what we are aiming at down the road.  Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber was quoted as saying, "This fella is just starting to mature.  We think he'll be one of the major players at two miles for the next couple of years."

Shatterstar, the grizzled veteran 5yo, came up with a win in the GR3 Parramatta League Stakes at 7.5F.  It was the shortest race in his career.  "His huge lungs served him well in this race." Webber commented.  "He simply blew away the competition in the last furlong."

Crossbones, Necromancer, and up-and-coming 2yo Deep Magic all had second place finishes.

Simple system for horse travel?

Simple is an insidious word, because what sounds simple to me, may be a programming nightmare for Laurie.

I'm not sure how most people feel about instituting a travel rule into Photo Finish, but I have been in favor of it for ages.  My gut feeling is the only thing holding it up is a way to introduce it to the game without the Administrator having to spend 6 months at hard labor.

I was thinking it about it again and I would suggest a simplified approach.  How about this for a possibility?  Divide the world up into four quadrants with North America in the top left,  South America in the bottom left, Eurasia in the top right, and Australia in the lower right, with each race track getting assigned to a quadrant.

The system would have to remember the quadrant that the horse raced in last.  Then, when choosing future races from the drop down menu, the only races that will show up will be the ones that can be reached in the allotted time.  For instance:

Next race in same quadrant - Horse can run in races after 14 days.

Next race in adjacent quadrant - Horse can run in 28 days.

Next race in diagonal quadrant - Horse can run in 42 days.

This would approximate the logistics/difficulties of intercontinental travel.  It would require that owners be a little more on their toes, no question about that.  I for one would welcome it.  Perhaps a column could be added to the stable page that would identify the horses current quadrant location.  That would help immensely in planning.

Any input on this subject?

Still looking...

Otsego Farms is still in the market for one quality racer. 

Preferably a 3yo or a 4yo with two racing seasons left according to AR.  Sprinter, Miler, or Distance types are all acceptable.  I lean towards a filly but a colt would be OK.  I am looking to spend some cash...up to $2M (perhaps higher) for the right horse.

I've got a lot of young horses in the chute and I race my 2yo's very sparingly, so I need another veteran racer for next season and beyond.

Contact me at mvpcandidate@gmail.com.

Just a few things on my mind...

1)  The La Force experiment is officially over.  I bought him from Endless Vista for two reasons:

• strong breeding
• excellent stamina

As I mentioned previously, his AR says Sprinter, but that was under the old programming where some horses may have been misclassified.  I thought it was possible that he might have had a little more lung capacity than anticipated.  That may be true, but there is another fly in the ointment that continues to hamper his performance which I'll describe in layman's terms.... he's lazy!

No matter what distance he races, La Force simply will not exert himself.  I've raced him at 9F, 12F, and 16F.  He generally starts well, then settles in at effort-level 3 to breeze through the rest of the race.  That kind of work ethic is not permissible, so La Force has bought himself a ticket back to Endless Vista.

2)  Kayson threw up a 107 PSR and was only able to manage a 7th against GR1 opposition.  He's fast, but we'll try him at GR2 or GR3 next time out.

3)  We were very impressed with the 2nd place finish of Kit Fisto in his debut.  It was 8F on turf against four other 2yo's and the lone older horse, 5yo mare Light Touch, who was the winner.  Fisto was the favorite and carried the most weight.  He's the half-brother of 3yo colt Crossbones, so it looks like broodmare In Spirit may have thrown another decent one.

Otsego says goodbye to War Hammer

The enigmatic 3yo colt War Hammer (War Machine x Shattered Record) has been sold to Hey Buddy Racing Stable for $30,000.

"We had very high expectations for this fella, but he just hasn't panned out for us.  We are confident that he will do well for our friends at Hey Buddy", a rather subdued Jim Webber stated at the press conference to announce the sale.

The connections at Otsego Farms knew that War Hammer was going to mature slowly, but obviously decided they didn't want to wait.  "We're in a perpetual stall crunch and unfortunately, War Hammer has to be classified as collateral damage."  Webber continued, "We really like him and wish we had unlimited resources so we could bring him along at his own pace."

Which way to go?

I've been writing the blog for over 4 years and I've changed the look many times.  The title has always been Otsego Insider, but the font and picture at the top have been modified often.

I was originally thinking that the look should remain static.  That would portray solidity and continuity.  I mean, how often has the banner and general look of the Wall Street Journal changed over the last 100 years?

But, I just can't seem to stay satisfied with the way the blog looks, therefore I change it often.  So I continue to struggle with the choice of finding a layout I like and keeping it forever, or changing it as often as my mood dictates.

I'll have a Gal in (near) Kalamazoo

I was putting my breeding pairs together, trying to be as logical as possible.  When I finally got done and the dust cleared, one pairing stood as follows: 

Jenny's My Gal x Affirm Gal 

What are the odds that I'd have a sire and a dam both with the word Gal in their names?  I didn't plan it that way.  They just ended up together as though it was meant to be.  That initially led me along the lines of Kismet/Karma for foal names. 

Eventually though, I thought that I just had to continue the Gal thread; whether the foal was a colt or a filly.  So the names for this pair will be:

COLT - Galahad

FILLY - Galaxi

Always thinking...

As I mentioned in a previous post, I'm in the process of reconfiguring my stable to accommodate a maximum of the following:

• 10 Foals
• 10 One-year olds
• 10 Two-year olds
• 10 Three-year olds
• 7 Older racers
• 10 Broodmares
• 3 Stallions

Sixty total stalls.  I figure it will take me until the end of 2015 to get everything the way I want it.

In that regard, I'm evaluating my current stock to see who will be leaving Otsego Farms between now and the end of the season.  I'll probably sell a couple soon, because my stable is currently full and I hate having no available stall space.  You never know when an emergency acquisition may be necessary, right.

My older racers next year will be headlined by 6yo Shatterstar, 5yo Kayson, and 4yo's House of M, Crossbones and Refractor.  Horses that will be in this potential category that will be sold are La Force, Necromancer, and War Hammer, with Nebula currently being on the bubble.  Nebula is a talented filly who I just can't seem to get a handle on.  She'll get a couple more chances to convince me, one way or the other, unless someone makes me an offer in the meantime that I can't refuse.

I'd like it if all of my current 2yo's made it into next season, but there is a possibility that one or perhaps two of them may have to be sacrificed.

I see myself adding 5 stalls at the end of this year, which would put me at 55.  I'm currently full with 50 horses and I will have 10 foals, so I need to cut my string to 45 by the end of the season in order to accommodate the youngsters.

Also, I'd like to spend another million or so to pick up one more nice racer.  Any ideas?

I've had better weeks racing-wise, but something good still happened...

I'm not real happy with a record of 7-0-0-3 for the week.  Truth be told, I wasn't expecting too much because none of my top runners were going, but no wins or places in seven starts still smarts a bit. 

Xtra Run sure is a slow starter.  Worst breaking horse I've ever had.  She has other skills though and I'm still high on her, but she's gonna need to mature a bit and get into much longer races.  She finished 4th out of 7 this week. 

Shatterstar, Necromancer, and Quasar all has 3rd place finishes.  The first two fellows deserved to hit the board with nice efforts.  Quasar looked terrible though and if it wasn't just a 4-horse race, he would have finished well down the line.

You Know My Name looked decent in her debut finishing 5th out of 11.  Moondragon had a middle-of-the-pack finish, a disappointment after recording a win in her racing debut.  Art of Seduction had a rough trip with little clear sailing, but he looked OK in finishing 8th in a 18-horse field.

A positive development late in the weekend saw a deal between Otsego Farms and Hopeful Farm come to fruition.  Four-year-old sprinter Kayson (Handsome Man x Lady Kay, picture above courtesy of The Hopeful Report) will join our stable at a cost of $1,250,000.  

We have a distinct lack of sprinters, and needed another veteran racer so Kayson fits the bill on both accounts.  He's definitely got speed in the 5-6F range, putting up PSR's of 109, 108, 105 and 104, and he's a late maturing type, so we feel he'll have at least one more full season at peak performance.  We're very happy to have him.

Thwarted, but not defeated in my attempts to buy a horse

I have been trying for the last month to buy one more good racer or up-and-comer.  I want a proven commodity with another season or two in the tank, or a blue-chip prospect; and I'm willing to pay the necessary price.

I've recently had my eye on two horses, neither of which was ever offered on the sales page.  On one horse, I made an unsolicted offer.  The other horse was offered to me as a possibility.  Negotiations on both showed some promise, but were ultimately unsuccessful.  Understandably, owners are leery about selling good horses.

So, I continue to have my eye open for talent.  I've got just a single open stall, so I'm being picky about who occupies it.  Once it is filled, I'll be out of the market until late in the season.  At that time, I'll be clearing out some stock to make room for 10 incoming foals.

La Force, Necromancer, and War Hammer are three names that have come up as prospects to be sold.  However, I've made a mental committment to keep these fella's until late in the season to give them every chance to succeed.  Eventually, a couple others will be chosen to join that outgoing group.

But for now, my energies are aimed towards one more solid purchase.  If anyone reads this and wishes to make a suggestion of one of their horses, please do.  I'll ask that you not be offended if I decline, because I am looking for a very specific type of talent.

Big racing week at Otsego Farms

7-5-3. Those are the magic numbers this week.

Seven total racers. That is a lot for me considering that I've had just over 40 entries all year so far.

Five two-year-old entries. I've only had 7 entries total for all of my 2yo's thus far in 2014.

Three Otsego Farms debut races. New acquisitions Art of Seduction and Necromancer both make their first appearances in the Blue and Yellow, and the 2yo filly You Know My Name (Union Jack x Shattered Record) hits the track for the first time in her career.

Moondragon will run in the 5.5F Tippett Stakes looking to make it two in a row after getting the win in her first race.  The field has 13 entries which is just past the normal tipping point where I scratch a 2yo, but I decided to give it a go based on her strong previous showing.

Xtra Run makes her second start in the 6F Angle C Stakes.  She's a slow starter who did not perform well in her debut at a short 4.5F.  The extra distance should help her immensely, and even though it's probably still way too short for her, we're predicting a win.

Veteran Shatterstar, who will stick around at the stable for as long as it takes to become a million dollar earner,  and 2yo Quasar (Revenge x Nova) round out the entries.

Latest scientific discovery at the Photo Finish laboratory.

In real life, horses do better with adequate rest.  In most cases, that is also true in Photo Finish.

We're all tempted to run these fantasy critters every 14 days or even more frequently than that because it's fun and because it's usually more profitable to race them than to rest them.  Some of us are more than tempted, we just do it.  Sometimes by design, sometimes by accident.

I always suspected that the software was sophisticated enough to deal harshly with over-racing.  It was advertised as the most realistic racing simulation on the market.  How could it not?

And yet there are instances in Photo Finish where lack of rest does not always doom a horse.  I wonder why?  Perhaps because, like in real life racing, there are horses who can handle a heavy workload with little trouble.

In any event, I was curious about how lack of rest affects a horse and I thought I'd check into it.  I'm not sure why it never occurred to me to look at this before, but I decided to look at a horses four main attributes when well-rested, then again when not well-rested.  A perfect test case emerged a couple weeks ago when Myasa won a race on 5-30-14, then lost horribly on short rest on 6-3-14.

Port Pirie took some heat on the June entry with some camps believing it was a simple case of greed.  Connections at Port Pirie insisted it was just an oversight.  Either way, it is a perfect example for this test.

The four attributes for Myasa when well-rested were:

Break Speed - 81

Early Speed - 90

Top Speed - 91

Stamina - 70

Very good overall ratings.  Good enough for her to easily win the race at 12F against some tough hombres like Run On Sentence, Pluto, and Refractor.

She was back on the track in just 4 days and her lack of rest manifested itself with these numbers:

Break Speed - 73

Early Speed - 88

Top Speed - 89

Stamina - 66

Across the board, the numbers were way down.  The stamina number was especially poor, and woefully inadequate for The Derby at 12F.  She finished last.

So, we have to keep this in mind.  I've had racers that finished a race with an ESN of 1200 (I don't know what Myasa's ESN was after the first race) and I thought, "Cool.  He hardly worked at all.  I can probably send him to that race in 16 days with no repercussions."  

However, if a horse finishes a race with a solidly positive ESN, perhaps that by itself doesn't necessarily mean he may be ready to race soon.  Maybe, as reflected in Myasa's case, the base numbers are still affected negatively, which will probably manifest itself in ugly fashion on the track.

Maybe some of you knew this.  I knew the base numbers got better as a horse matured to full strength and then declined as the horse aged.  I never really thought about significant race-to-race changes as a result of how the horse was being treated.  I'll look more closely at this in the future, that's for sure.

The annual horse-naming trial

Well, now that I have all my pairings figured out for breeding, the foal-naming process begins in earnest.

I originally dubbed my stable "The Superheroes of Racing" because of my penchant for choosing superhero names from the DC and Marvel Universes.  For the last couple of years, I've found it tougher and tougher to find names I liked, so I've been branching out a bit into heroic and infamous historical and literary figures.  That is where names like Charlemagne, Kit Fisto, Boudica, and Jack the Ripper came from.

I've got several picked out for this year already, and I ran them by my wife to test the waters.  Some passed that litmus test and others did not.  She felt a couple were too pretentious.  One in particular that she did not like was "The Golden One".

I recently finished a 3-book series (historical fiction) on the Trojan War.  In these books, there was a character named Helikaon, who was an ally of King Priam of Troy.  He was so gifted in every way that he was said to be favored by the gods, hence his nickname of "The Golden One".  I admired the character and thought the name was fitting for a racing thoroughbred.

So, because my vote is the only one that counts (with regard to Otsego Farms), The Golden One passes muster and will be another colt name for 2015.

Inspiration for a horse name

This song has a hold on me.  Always has.  Therefore, one of my colts next breeding season will be named Schoolboy Crush.

$1000? Why not?

Because the majority of my racers are 2yo's and I race then so sparingly, I have very few entries each week.  So, in the interest of having a little more fun, I thought I'd pick up a couple of veteran racers and Necromancer was out there waiting to be plucked.

He's a 3yo who he has shown that he has some talent.  At 8.5F, he has put up PSR's of 95, 93, and 79 and he's been in the money in 6 of 10 career races.

I was kinda surprised that no one else even bothered to steal him away by risking just $1500.  I thought that a newer stable looking for a horse to bring in a little cash might take a chance on him.

He'll occupy a stall as a racer here at Otsego Farms until the end of the season, then he'll be moved out to make way for younger horses. 

I think I've finally figured it out...

While sitting under an apple tree, Sir Isaac Newton was inspired to create his universal theory of gravitation when an apple dropped on his head.  I have recently had a similar epiphany and discovered what I believe to be a universal truth.

What is this universal truth? 

There is not a lot of value in two-year-old horses. 

The fact is, I just don't run them enough for them to be worth much.  Here we are at the halfway point in the season and my ten 2yo's have run a combined total of SIX races.  Now, how in the heck can I make judgements on the value and keepability of these horses if the database for my consideration is so small?

You see, I'm forced to make value judgements quickly on these horses because of my stall situation.  My 50-stall organization was supposed to be comprised as follows:

3 Stallions

10 Broodmares

10 Two-year olds

10 One-year olds

10 Foals

7 Racers aged 3+

My problem?  Because of my propensity to severely limit my 2yo entries, I don't have enough data to make an informed decision on which 2yo's go and which stay.  There is only one remedy for this quandary. 

I gotta have more stalls!

My new configuration will be exactly as above with one addition:

10 Three-year olds

Basically, all of the 2yo's will get a free pass into their 3yo season and I'll take a little longer to evaluate them.  At some time during that season, some will undoubtedly get the boot, but it won't be before they have convinced me thoroughly of their lack of talent.

This just feels right.

Lightning strikes twice...

I haven't had alot of debut wins with 2yo's in the past few seasons.  In fact, I've had very few in the history of Otsego Farms.  The only ones that come to mind are War Machine and Huntress.  Well, 2014 is shaping up as a banner year in this category with not one, but TWO debut victories.

Earlier this season, Captain Britain (Union Jack x Flawless) won his first race at 8F on turf, and this past weekend, the unheralded filly Moondragon (Moet x Monsoon) took the lead and held on to win the 5F Balcrest Stakes.

I say "unheralded" because there were several 2yo's that rated higher in our system this season than Moondragon.  The dam, Monsoon, was a middle-of-the-road racer who did display some ability, but was by no means a star.  Sire Moet was a tremendously fast sprinter who has had some success in the breeding shed, but hasn't made a huge splash yet.

I've still got three unraced 2yo's waiting to make their debut.  Is it possible that lightning can strike thrice?

Flying to Oz...

I actually get to debut a 2yo this weekend.  I've been trying for weeks to get  my last few 2yo's out there, but the fields have been too big. 

Finally, a decent sized field and therefore, Moondragon will make her first appearance.  There will be just 10 horses in the 5F Balcrest Stakes on the turf in Morphettville.  She's a miler by Moet out of Monsoon and hasn't struck our trainers as a top-notch prospect, but that can all change with a solid showing Down Under.

It was a bit of an expense to ship Moondragon all the way to South Australia for her debut, but I had business there anyway, so I thought I'd tag along, killing two birds, so to speak.

Also, project-horse La Force will try his hand at 16F at Shenandoah Downs.  I had an idea that he might be able to handle longer distances, so I picked him up as an experiment.  His first race for Otsego Farms at 12F did not go well, but he didn't exert himself at all, so we figure we'll try to make him work a bit at 2 miles.

Stable stalwarts House of M and Nebula will both race this weekend as well.  Obviously, expectations are higher for these fillies.  We expect both to hit the board.  Initially we were predicting 2 wins, but the competition in the A Gleam Handicap got a little stiff, so while we think she's capable, it'll be a tougher road for Nebula in our opinion.

Somebody stop me...

I'm reasonably patient when it comes to my horses.  However, when I have a blue-chip prospect who has a record of 4-0-0-0 in the middle of his 3yo season, my patience begins to ebb.

In fairness to him, War Hammer's (War Machine x Shattered Record) AR states that he will mature at the average rate (age 3-4).  So, some slack must be cut in regard to his pitiful performances thus far.

But in his last race, a 8F affair on turf (which should be well within his abilities distance-wise), he went off at 31-1 and finished last, 31 lengths off the lead and 24 lengths behind the next worst horse.  That type of performance does not instill confidence, especially for a horse, as I said,  in the middle of his 3yo season.

So, why do I need to be stopped? 

Because I wanna sell this horse.  Every fiber of my being screams at me to put this horse on the sales page.  I've commented about it a couple times in this blog and the only reason I haven't sold him yet is because somebody who's opinion I respect suggested I hold out a bit longer.

I keep looking at my stall situation though and it's very apparent that several horses will have to go to make room for the new crop of 10 foals coming in next year.  So why not beat the rush and find a new home for this fella now?

You can carve this in granite.  He gets one more start.  I'll give him 60 days to rest (and mature a smidgen more) then he better show me something.

Baby Greyhound revisited...

While trying to determine the optimum stallion for BG, I decided that a check of her racing statistics might provide some insight.  I've seen her AR, which states that her best distance was 12F, but that was back in the day when AR's were considered much less reliable (and that is saying something because many people think they still may be worthless, despite some tweaks by Laurie).

I went to the middle of her 3yo season and picked a 9F race in which she finished 2nd.  Checking the race stats, I saw that her Top Speed was 90, which would be very good for a 12F runner.  I was expecting to see a Stamina number in the 70-71 range, but unfortunately it was just 68, which equates to more of a miler-type, in my opinion.

Hmmm.  Now where did that "best distance 12F" come from?  The answer was found when I looked at the Kick rating.  This is a rating that evidently measures courage or strength down the stretch.  Baby Greyhound's rating was over 1000, which is excellent.  To put that into perspective, that rating typically ranges in the 300-800 range for most horses, with the higher number being better.  At one time, I believe the Kick rating was used in determining the preferred distance for a horse.

Predator was also a horse whose AR said 12F was his best distance.  That was evidently also determined in part by an abnormally high Kick rating.  The truth was...Predator was always better at 8F or less.

So, it seems to me that my new girl is not quite the horse I thought she was.  Rather than a producer of stayers, it looks like she might crank out courageous milers with a finishing kick, and that's OK with me.  I was gonna match her with Union Jack, but after digesting all of this, I may be on the lookout for a miler-type stallion instead.