Otsego Farms on brink of major sell-off?

We're a third of the way through the season and patience is starting to wear thin for a few horses who have not performed up to expectation. This weekend will be the acid test for four horses who are fighting to maintain a stall here at Otsego Farms.

4yo colt Azrael has been on the bubble for a few weeks now.  In fact, he found himself on the sales page a week ago, but gathered no interest, so he was brought back on board for one more chance.  He's actually a decent racer who has recently spun off  a couple bad showings.  If he performs well today, he'll stick around for awhile longer.

3yo colt Trebuchet, is surface picky and has shown mediocre ability so far.  He is a product of the War Machine x False Demon pairing that has been disastrous so far.  FD was acquired because of her seemingly perfect compatibility with stud War Machine.  Unfortunately, two tries produced Trebuchet and Anck Su Namen, who was so disappointing that she was shipped out after just one race.

4yo colt Mocha Milkshake has a slightly longer lease because of his late maturity.  A big, strapping black colt by Memcay, out of Gourmet Girl, MM has actually performed fairly well with a record of 6-1-0-2,  He's not progressing much though and owner Jim Webber has mentioned his name a few times as a potential sale candidate.  Trainers say that he may not mature until age 5, and that fact has stayed Webber's hand up until this point.

3yo colt Samurai Jack is a sentimental favorite at Otsego Farms.  He is out of Affirm Gal by Union Jack, a couple of favorites in our breeding system.  He is also named after Webber's fantasy football/baseball teams for the past 20 years, the Samurai Jax, but even that will not be enough to save him.  A bunch of PSR's in the 60's has put a target on his back.

Odds are that at least one of the aforementioned horses will hit the sales page today, with Mocha Milkshake being the least likely.

Week 15/16 results...

Weeks 15 and 16 of the Photo Finish 2016 season were very successful for Otsego Farms.  All nine starters finished in the money, although it must be mentioned that a couple of the horses benefited from small fields.  No matter how you slice it, a record of 9-3-3-2 is noteworthy.

Seven year old veteran Shatterstar pulled off a win, and in so doing has fashioned a career record of 46-11-13-7 so far.  Interestingly enough, his sire Nightwing had a career record of 46-11-13-5.  Eerily similar wouldn't you say?  Nightwing though, being strictly a GR1/GR2 type, has 5 times the career earnings.

Ettore Fieramosca, the 5yo sprinter who was picked up for $1000 last season picked up his 13th career win.  He has had a record of 7-4-1-2 since being acquired by Otsego Farms and shows no sign of slowing down even though he is supposed to have a short career peak.

Rising stable star Astrapios, looks ready for prime time after demolishing the field in a 16F allowance.  His time, an eye-popping 3:17.06 was a track record, the second in his last three races.  The connections at Otsego Farms are ready to throw him into the deep end of the pool, saying that he'll face off against Sunshine's Pluto and even stablemate Refractor as soon as his next race.

Methy Bus, Warp Factor Ten, and Jack the Ripper all finished second with nice performances.  Warp Factor Ten came out on the short end of a dead heat with Dark Knight's 4yo male Running Riot.

Fossett and 3yo filly Boudica both finished 3rd with Boudica's showing being attributable to a 3-horse field.

Juggernaut, finished 4th and now has a career record of 5-0-0-0.  This colt has sound bloodlines (Jenny's My Gal x Shattered Record), but is maturing slowly.  He has shown improvement though and we're not giving up on him.  We think he'll break out in his next race, which will be at a minimum of 10F to 12F.

Proposed sale rescinded. False Demon to stay on as broodmare?

Citing "second thoughts", Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber pulled broodmare False Demon from the sales page early this morning.

"She had not received a bid, making it completely legal for me to change my mind", Webber explained in a short phone conversation this morning.  "I was wavering on my resolve anyway, and when I saw that she had not drawn any interest yet, I took it as a sign that maybe she should stay."

False Demon, 12yo dirt specialist (prefer, prefer, prefer) has a celebrated bloodline with Kentucky Derby winners Fusaichi Pegasus (sire), and Seattle Slew (maternal grand sire) in her lineage.

"She's a tough, dirt-loving, distance horse, and I finally thought, why should I sell her?"

Five year old House of M will retire at the end of the 2016 season and will certainly be ushered in to the breeding program.  This creates the need to clear a spot. 

"We'll figure something out..."

"Rumors of my demise are greatly exaggerated" - Refractor

5yo Superstayer Refractor of Otsego Farms got quite testy recently with condescending reporters crowding around his stall.  The questions were coming at the big bay racer in rapid fire fashion.

"Are you washed up?"

"How do you feel about getting beat three times in a row?"

"Are you injured?"

"Is management to blame for your inability to win?"

Refractor shook his head, bared his teeth and responded, "No.  Pissed off.  No.  Maybe."

He continued, "My PSR's have been 110, 120, and 119, so it's not like I'm slowing down.  Honestly, I felt a little over rested and sluggish at the Diamond Stakes.  The Metropolitan was a debacle; I'm not fond of short races.  I hope Mr. Webber doesn't race me at less than 16 furlongs again. At the Melbourne Cup, I was the favorite and ran a 3:17.49 for God's sake.  That would have been good enough to win easily last year, but just wasn't this year.  Pluto had a career race and the filly Wherewouldwebenow had no weight on her."

"Mr. Webber is gonna feed me well and give me some rest.  I'll win my next race, I don't give a damn who they throw out against me.  I do hope that Pluto will be there though.  I have a score to settle with that pretty boy."

Just rambling...

Interesting factoid:  Since I have had my own studs, I have bred 45 foals.  Thirty of them have been by Otsego Farms studs War Machine (13), Union Jack (9), and Nightwing (8).  All of the remaining 15 have been single use studs with the exception of Jennys My Gal, who has been used twice.

I recently sent an unsolicited email to another owner offering to buy their horse for $1,000,000.  They didn't deign to reply.  I dislike that and consider it a discourtesy.  I always remember that kind of thing...

In a year where I've had quite a few disappointments, the first race win by 2yo French Twist (Deux Francais x Nova) was extremely satisfying.  His AR hinted that he might have the right stuff.  Hopefully he can realize his potential.

Three year old colt Astrapios, looked very handy indeed by finishing 3rd in the Caulfield Cup this weekend.  I didn't really expect him to win, but with Hagrid's Backhand being perhaps over her head distance-wise (she wasn't) and Molecular being on a short 14-day rest, I thought he might pull off an upset.  He looked very strong at the end, lending further credence to my opinion that he will be a 2-miler in the future.  In fact, his next race will be at 16 furlongs.

I won the Survival contest to start the season!  My choice, was a horse that I have been watching, Planet Fiftyone.  He had a patsy field and looked like a no-brainer to me.  Turned out I was right; then Iron Mike missed his pick, giving me the win.  I can use the 750k, and a spot to Sinking Fear will be very welcome.  I see him as a perfect match for my mare Ace Of Grace.

After selling Anck Su Namen and Kit Fisto last week, 4yo colt Azrael has hit the sales page this week.  He's not really a bad racer, but I'm looking for some new blood and he has not shown me quite enough to keep his spot.  I've got another 3-4 horses who are on the bubble as well.

Underwhelming 3yo crop has owner contemplating change

Unhappy with the performance of several of his homebred 3yo racers, Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber has begun the process of finding new homes for some of them.

"Of the nine, I'm only satisfied with two at this point.  Warp Factor Ten (9-5-1-1) has been outstanding, and Jack the Ripper (5-2-1-0) will undoubtedly prove to be the most successful of the crop.  The others have been very disappointing", Webber commented recently while attending Game 4 of the NBA Finals in Miami.

Of the others, Charlemagne probably has the best chance to stick.  He appears to trending upward and those in the know suspect he'll pan out eventually.  Crackerjack, Samurai Jack, and Trebuchet have looked ordinary at best and Juggernaut has performed very poorly.  The filly Bouduca has been an unmitigated disaster, even if you take her relative immaturity into account.

"Of the five on the hot seat, I suspect I'll sell two or three of 'em", Webber stated.

2016 Foal Preview - Sired by Guest Studs

Rico Suave (2016), 16.3 hand bay colt

By Find A Way out of False Demon by Fusaichi Pegasus

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.

This horse prefers hard dirt.

This horse dislikes soft dirt.

This horse prefers mud.

This horse is ok on hard turf.

This horse is poor on soft turf.

This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.

This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.

This horse stalks the pace.

This horse has good acceleration.

This horse has average speed out of the gate.

This horse has average speed.

This horse likes a lot of distance. Simply Charming (2016), 17.2 hand dark chestnut filly By Kennys Charm out of Domino by War Machine This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3). This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons. This horse prefers hard dirt. This horse prefers soft dirt. This horse prefers mud. This horse is ok on hard turf. This horse is ok on soft turf. This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries. This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing. This horse stalks the pace. This horse accelerates like a bullet! This horse has average speed out of the gate. This horse has good speed. Could set records. This horse appears to be primarily a miler.

2016 Foal Preview - Sired by Union Jack

I Can Dream (2016), 16 hand light bay filly

By Union Jack out of Ace Of Grace by Ace of Hearts

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.

This horse is good on hard dirt.

This horse prefers soft dirt.

This horse is good in mud.

This horse prefers hard turf.

This horse is good on soft turf.

This horse has physical problems that may lead to alot of injury downtime.

This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.

This horse is flexible; can run on lead, stalk, or come from behind.

This horse accelerates like a bullet!

This horse breaks well out of the gate.

This horse has average speed.

This horse appears to be primarily a miler. Reminiscing (2016), 17.2 hand bay filly By Union Jack out of Second Strike by Spanish Midnight This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3). This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons. This horse is good on hard dirt. This horse is good on soft dirt. This horse is poor in mud. This horse is ok on hard turf. This horse prefers soft turf. This horse has physical problems that may lead to alot of injury downtime. This horse has average ratability. This horse usually comes from midpack. This horse accelerates like a bullet! This horse is a slow starter out of the gate. This horse has average speed. This horse likes a lot of distance. Then Came You (2016), 17.2 hand bay filly By Union Jack out of Shattered Record by Black Shatter This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3). This horse will enjoy a long peak performance time, several racing seasons. This horse is good on hard dirt. This horse is poor on soft dirt. This horse prefers mud. This horse prefers hard turf. This horse prefers soft turf. This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries. This horse has average ratability. This horse usually comes from midpack. This horse has good acceleration. This horse breaks well out of the gate. This horse has average speed. This horse likes a lot of distance.

2016 Foal Preview - Sired by War Machine

Helikaon (2016), 16.3 hand chestnut colt
By War Machine out of In Spirit by Bellbuster
This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse prefers soft dirt.
This horse dislikes mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse is ok on soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse usually comes from midpack.
This horse accelerates like a bullet!
This horse has average speed out of the gate.
This horse has good speed. Could set records.
This horse likes a lot of distance.

Kid Shelleen (2016), 17 hand chestnut colt

By War Machine out of Nebula by Dubai Gold

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.

This horse is good on hard dirt.

This horse is good on soft dirt.

This horse is good in mud.

This horse is ok on hard turf.

This horse is ok on soft turf.

This horse is of average soundness.

This horse has average ratability.

This horse always comes from midpack.

This horse has good acceleration.

This horse has average speed out of the gate.

This horse has good speed. Could set records.

This horse likes a lot of distance.

Scarlet Witch (2016), 16.1 hand dark brown filly

By War Machine out of Nova by Housebuster

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.

This horse prefers hard dirt.

This horse prefers soft dirt.

This horse is good in mud.

This horse is poor on hard turf.

This horse is ok on soft turf.

This horse has physical problems that may lead to alot of injury downtime.

This horse has average ratability.

This horse is a front runner.

This horse has good acceleration.

This horse is a slow starter out of the gate.

This horse has good speed. Could set records.

This horse likes a lot of distance.

2016 Foal Preview - Sired by Nightwing

Give Me Danger (2016), 17 hand bay colt

By Nightwing out of Arctic Fox by Thunder Arctic

This horse will mature at the average rate (3-4).

This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.

This horse is ok on hard dirt.

This horse is good on soft dirt.

This horse is ok in mud.

This horse prefers hard turf.

This horse is good on soft turf.

This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.

This horse has a mind of its own and likes to run at its own pace.

This horse always comes from midpack.

This horse has good acceleration.

This horse has average speed out of the gate.

This horse has average speed.

This horse likes a lot of distance. Makes Me Wonder (2016), 16.3 hand bay colt By Nightwing out of Affirm Gal by Affirmation This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3). This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons. This horse prefers hard dirt. This horse prefers soft dirt. This horse is ok in mud. This horse prefers hard turf. This horse is ok on soft turf. This horse has physical problems that may lead to alot of injury downtime. This horse has a mind of its own and likes to run at its own pace. This horse always comes from far back. This horse has good acceleration. This horse has average speed out of the gate. This horse has average speed. This horse likes a lot of distance.

2015 Otsego Farms Report Card

Here are the 2015 race records and grades for the horses of Otsego Farms:

Refractor  A

7-5-1-0  $3,165,000  He's strictly a 2-miler so that limits his opportunities somewhat.  An ill-advised start on short rest was the only real blemish on his record.  His second place finish in the Breeders Cup Endurance may have cost him Eclipse votes for best older male; an award won by a very deserving Gradient.

Methy Bus  A

8-5-2-0  $2,005,000  Another fine season by this 10F-12F specialist.  He is showing no signs of slowing down and therefore another banner season is expected in 2016.  His consistency and high production has secured him a spot as a stallion upon his retirement from racing.

Ettore Fieramosca  A

5-4-1-0  $169,500  He's not a headliner, but as a Stakes racer, he's deadly.  He missed going undefeated in his time at Otsego Farms by a nose, getting edged by star sprinter Reining Money in a GR3 affair.  Picked up for $1000 in mid-season; he has morphed into a stable favorite.

Warp Factor Ten  A-

8-4-1-1  $250,800  He was a threat to win virtually every race he entered, but didn't impress the trainers enough to enter him in graded races.  He's not quite fast enough to sprint and not strong enough to stay, so we're a little concerned where he'll compete in 2016. 

Jack the Ripper  A-

4-2-1-0  $297,500  Only his skimpy race schedule prevented him from getting an A.  He has shown steady progression; winning his final 2015 race in the GR1 Racing Post Trophy.  At the moment, he is our most highly regarded home-grown youngster.  Should compete at 10F in 2016.

Shatterstar  B+

9-3-3-1  $241,500  This old veteran turned in a stellar campaign and punched his ticket to return as a racer in 2016.  He will become the first Otsego Farms horse to race as a 7yo.  Strictly a Stakes racer these days, he is a valuable commodity nevertheless.

House of M  B+

8-2-4-1  $900,000  We expected a little better from the her, but overall her performance was strong.  She exceeded 100 PSR in every race and failed to cash a check just once; in an experimental foray into the Breeders Cup Mile.  She'll race in 2016 then it'll be off to the breeding shed.

You Know My Name  B

9-2-2-1  $690,000  It was an up and down season.  She got a couple early wins and put up some nice PSR's, then spiraled downward as the season progressed.  She's looking more and more like a GR2 or GR3 option, but she still competes and will be back for one more season.

Mocha Milkshake  B

5-1-0-2  $90,000  He was immature as a 3yo and may not fully mature until age 5, so we were fairly impressed with what he accomplished in his first racing season.  He'll get a full workload to show what he can do next year and should stretch out to 10F to 12F.

Azrael B

9-2-1-2  $252,500  Has shown good stamina and done well in races from 10F to 12F.  His PSR's have hovered around 100, but he may not have enough speed for the 10F circuit.  He'll concentrate on 11F+ in 2016.

Xtra Run  B-

9-0-3-3  $218,750  Even though she hasn't won yet, we remain confident that she will be a successful racer.  Her speed is top-notch; her ability to get out of the gate and into the fray early needs work.  We predict she'll break her maiden in 2016.

Nebula C+

9-1-3-2  $133,000  Her last season as a racer was solid but uninspiring.  She has the tools, but has never put them together on the track.  We think she'll be a tremendous asset in the breeding shed, where she is scheduled to match initially with War Machine.

Kit Fisto  C

8-0-3-1  $76,825  He has a couple good outings, but overall his performance was barely acceptable.  He'll get a handful of races in 2016 to show his stuff.  If no improvement is seen by June, he'll be gone.

Crossbones  C-

8-2-0-1  $300,000  Wha' happened?  We had very high hopes coming into the season, but it all went sour starting with a last place finish in the Dubai World Cup.  He's talented, his inherent racing stats are good, and he's projected with a very long racing career, so we'll be patient well into 2016.

Things looking up as season winds down...

Weeks 47-48 on the calendar provided plenty of fodder for discussion at Otsego Farms.

First, a landmark deal has been reached with Australian stable Glenmore Park.  Owner Bruce MacGillivray has agreed to sell his star 2yo filly Xtra Gold to Otsego Farms for a cool $4,000,000.  With her win this weekend, Xtra Gold has a record of 8-5-3-0 with earnings of $866,750.

"We needed to spend some cash.  This grand opportunity came up.  We're extremely happy with the acquisition", Otsego owner Jim Webber responded in a brief statement from Inglewood, California, after watching Xtra Gold win the Hollywood Preview Stakes.

Second, even though 3yo filly You Know My Name and 2yo colt Samurai Jack produced lackluster results this weekend, there was plenty of good racing news to go around.

Newcomer Phelan Ready went off at 20-1, but still managed a 4th in the GR3 Winter Stakes.  It was a solid performance for the 3yo filly, but in the end she may succumb to the numbers game.  "With the acquisition of Xtra Gold, we may not have a spot for Phelan Ready", Webber commented via Twitter during his flight back to Michigan.  This provoked countless responses from his 2.7 million worldwide followers who had not yet heard this news.

Another new racer, 3yo colt Fossett who was acquired from Bally Doyle, made his sprinting debut and triumphed at the 6F Thanksgiving Handicap.  Webber explained, "I thought he might have the makings of a sprinter, so we were determined to try him at 6F-7F.  This win proves we are on the right track".

Stable stars Methy Bus and Refractor also picked up wins.  The win by Refractor in the Brisbane Cup was especially gratifying because it evened the score to some small degree with the 3yo stayer Alphabet, who upset Refractor in the Breeders Cup Endurance a month ago.

"What can I say about these horses?  They are two of the best, most consistent racers in the world at the moment and I am very fortunate to own them", Webber concluded.

Top Ten Assets of Otsego Farms for 2016 and beyond...

These are the assets that will pay the bills for Otsego Farms, next year and further into the future.  They are listed by order of importance, counting down from 10 to 1.

10 - Mocha Milkshake
He's a 3yo colt by Memcay out of Gourmet Girl.  He is maturing very slowly; AR says 4-5 years old before I can expect peak performance.  He has done well in his four career starts and we expect great improvement next year.

9 - Azrael
This son of Nightwing is starting to put together some nice efforts.  He's hit 100+ PSR's in three of his last 6 races and the other three have been in the 90's.  His speed and stamina combination bode well at 10-12 furlongs.

8 - You Know My Name
She hasn't turned into the star we hoped for, but she's a consistent money maker who will race for another year, then will no doubt have a distinguished career as a broodmare.

7 - Union Jack
This stallion seems to have the magic touch.  He's got a flawless AR and cranks out good racers like a Pez dispenser.  He'll take over as the primary Otsego stallion as of 2016, and when you've got War Machine and Nightwing, that's saying something.

6 - Astrapios
This 2yo was purchased from Circle F in hopes that he can become a dominant 2-miler.  He'll try to avoid Refractor next season as much as possible.  He's got uncanny stamina and showed marked improvement in his second race.  He's on the fast track and hopefully he'll have some success at 12F as well as 16F.

5 - Warp Factor Ten
Run Missy Run x Nova says it all.  He has been in the money in 5 of 6 career races.  His speed is improving and we expect him to be a major player on the sprinting circuit in 2016.

4 - House of M
Fifteen of her last 17 races have been over 100 PSR.  She is ultra-consistent and combines speed and stamina very well.  She'll race next year, then go on to a career in the breeding shed.  We expect her to become our top broodmare very quickly.

3 - Jack the Ripper
This 2yo son of Union Jack is the nicest looking 2yo we've had in a while.  He has a record of 4-2-1-0 and won his first GR1 race this past weekend, putting up a 101 PSR in the process.  With his long peak period, he projects as a very valuable commodity for Otsego Farms.

2 - Methy Bus
This horse is an incredible talent.  Can beat almost anyone at 10-12F on any given night.  In the money in 21 of 23 career races.  Also has a long peak, so he could easily be around for another couple of seasons, hence his great value.

1 - Refractor
The top 2-miler in Photo Finish at this time without question.  With adequate rest, he is virtually unbeatable at his pet distance.  As of this writing he is preparing to defend his Breeders Cup Endurance crown.  Should have enough in the tank to compete at the highest levels for at least one more season.  Then he'll join Otsego stud as a resident stallion.

Accountants say "BUY"

My accountants have insisted that I spend up to $4,000,000 before the end of the year.  I've put out some feelers, made a couple offers and have had a couple offers sent my way, but so far I haven't been able to swing a deal to bring in a high-profile racer. 

I did pick up the 3yo colt Fossett (Parisian Sheikh x Fly So High) from Bally Doyle recently for $750,000, but that didn't get the bean-counters off my back.  Amanda has run Fossett almost exclusively at 8-9F, but we see him as more of a sprinter and he'll concentrate at 6-7F in the future.

Anyway, that $750k didn't meet the fiscal goals set by my accounting division, so I'm still in the market.

Send me an offer or suggestion.

Ettore Fieramosca makes bid to stay on in 2016

I bought Ettore Fieramosca on a whim. 

He had won a couple recent races and was on the sales page with no reserve.  Bidding was non-existent.  Perhaps it was because his AR stated that he matured early and has a very short peak time.  Since he was already in the middle of his 4yo season, he obviously didn't have much pull at auction.

However, looking over his performance history, it seemed to me that he did not peak early.  He didn't start getting over 100 PSR consistently until the middle of his 3yo season.  Based on what I observed in his record, and the ridiculously low price (with 10 minutes to go in the auction, I made the winning bid at $1000), I felt he would be a good investment for the remainder of the 2015 season.

However, his performance has made me think that I might keep him for another season.  He has put together a record of 3-2-1-0 $97,500 with an average PSR of 104 since I acquired him.  The race he lost was by a half-head to Reining Money.

I like him.  He's winning races.  That is the formula for keeping a stall at Otsego Farms.

2016 Outlook for Otsego Farms

As 2015 winds down, I've been making plans on who will be racing for Otsego Farms in 2016.  The following horses are assured a spot on the roster for next season:

Shatterstar - He'll be 7 next season and I've never raced a 7yo.  We'll make an exception in his case though.  He's no superstar, but he projects with a very long career peak and he fashioned a 8-3-3-1 record with earnings of $238,750 so far in 2015.  He's earned another season.

Crossbones - He also has a very long career peak so he'll be back as a 5yo in 2016.  He has quite a bit of ability, but bouts of inconsistancy have plagued him. 

House of M - All she does is hit the board and put up 100+ PSR's.  Her record in 2015 is 7-2-3-2 with earnings of $900,000.  She'll race next year, then retire to a career as a broodmare.

Methy Bus - This horse has become a stable favorite since his acquisition from Smokey's Stable.  His long projected career length means he'll race for at least 1-2 more seasons.  In 2015, he has been 7-4-2-0 with earnings of $1,705,000.  He is a force to be reckoned with at 10-12 furlongs against even the stoutest competition.

Refractor -  He is perhaps the greatest 2-miler in the history of Photo Finish.  Throw out the ill-conceived entry in the Gold Cup and he has a record of 7-6-1-0 with an average PSR of 119 at 16F.  He was a tad slow to mature and coupling that with his average length career peak means that he should have at least one more year to wreak havoc on the 16F circuit.

Azrael - He has shown signs that he's ready to bust out and make a name for himself.  He'll be back in 2016.

Kit Fisto - Has not found the winners circle in 11 career starts, but has finished 2nd five times, so he has been in the hunt.  He is less talented than Azrael, so he'll be on a short leash in 2016.

Mocha Milkshake - He should finally be mature as a 4yo in 2016.  He has definite potential and he'll have all of 2016 to show us what he's got.

You Know My Name - She's a consistent producer who will definitely have a spot on the racing roster in 2016.  She usually hovers around the 100 PSR mark and is always a threat in races that are just below the top tier.

Astrapios - We are hoping this colt will be Refractor's successor at 16F.  We think he'll have the raw ability to win at 2 miles when he is mature.  He made remarkable strides in his second race, finishing 2nd and cutting 14 seconds off his time at 16F.  We think only Refractor and Alphabet stand in his way.

Jack the Ripper - He's a chip off the old Union Jack block.  Has looked very competitive in  his three career starts with a record of 3-1-1-0.  He's better on turf, but he might be a Derby comtender anyway.

Warp Factor Ten - His speed is coming around and he's got the genes to make a splash.  So far as a 2yo he has a record of 6-2-1-1.  He should be a sprinter of note in 2016.

These horses have the rest of this season and perhaps a bit of next season to secure a stall:

Charlemagne, Crackerjack, Juggernaut, Samurai Jack, and Trebuchet - Their bodies of work are very limited so I'm trying not to make any rash decisions.  Hopefully, all five 2yo colts will be back in 2016.  It's possible though that one or more of these fellows will go by year-end or at the auction.

Xtra Run - This filly has raw speed, but has a couple holes in her abilities as well.  She'll be a 4yo in 2016 and doesn't have a lot of time to get straightened out.

Boudica - She is an ultra-immature filly and it showed in a disastrous debut.  I hope I have the patience to see how she does next year.

Miscellaneous stuff that has crossed my mind in the last 24 hours

Who is the best two-year old out there right now? Hands down it's Rogue Day (Lager Beer x Scream Day) from Firstholme Racing. This horse is a equine wrecking ball. As Qui-Gon Jinn would say, his midi-chlorians are off the charts. Expect BIG things from this fellow. He is the chosen one.

I bought a horse today.  I'm not sure why; just one of those knee-jerk reactions.  I saw something I liked and the price was right at $20,000 so... KA-BAM...Buy Now Baby!  In her comments on the sales page, Waikato mentioned that it would be a good horse for a newer stable.  Yup.  It sure would have been.  Anyway, 3yo filly Phelan Ready is now a member of Otsego Farms.

That win by Methy Bus in the 12F Canadian International over the legendary Capro Espiatorio was very satisfying.  I'm a big fan of Capro and his owner Ettore over al Olmo Dorato, and I generally root for both of them, but obviously not this time.  I had a feeling that Methy Bus would pull this one out, even though the oddsmakers made Capro a prohibitive favorite at 1/3.  Methy Bus has another year of racing in him, perhaps two, after which I am eyeing him very seriously as a stallion at Otsego Farms Stud.

Warp Factor Ten won this weekend, showing a nice spark in the last furlong to beat the KRF colt Express, who experienced an injury that may have played a part as well.  Express has a slightly higher top speed at the moment, but WFT's higher stamina and kick began to tell in that last furlong.  With a record of 6-2-1-1, WFT has been the most successful 2yo this season for Otsego Farms.

Year end house cleaning started this week at Otsego Farms.  Veterans Kayson and Machine Gun both hit the sales page and met reserve so they will be sold.  Additionally, 3yo's Captain Britain and School Boy Heart went as well and joining them on the way out was 2yo Darkhawk.  I still need to clear a couple spots, so production in the last 6 weeks of the season will be paramount for the horses that are on the bubble.

Astrapios begins to build legacy

It was just an allowance race at Shenandoah Downs, but 2yo colt Astrapios made a strong statement last weekend with a solid 2nd place finish at 16F.

"We paid big money for this fella based on his physical tools.  Frankly, we're relieved that he showed us that our confidence was not misplaced", Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber stated after the race.  Webber paused, then continued, "Relieved, but not surprised."

Astrapios finished 5 lengths behind filly phenom Cynic (Spartan Racing Stables), who now has a perfect record with three wins in three starts.

When asked if he envisioned Cynic being a roadblock on Astrapios' path to success, Webber said, "No.  She's a great filly, but I don't see her as a 16F horse down the road.  I think she'll settle in at 10-12F.  In the long-run, Astrapios will have her number at 2 miles."

He continued, "Machete's offspring are notorious for their quick maturation.  She's ahead of Astrapios physically at the moment.  It'll be a completely different story next season."

Crop Circles, Bigfoot, the Bermuda Triangle, and Quake.

Mysteries.  Unexplained phenomenon. 

Does the Loch Ness Monster really exist?  Can anyone explain the composition of Dark Matter?  And most perplexingly, why does KRF keep running the 4yo filly Quake at 16 furlongs?

Admittedly, Quake got her career off to a bang when she finished 4th at 16F in her debut.  Thus encouraged, KRF entered her in two more 2-mile races and Quake rattled off back-to-back wins, with impressive times of 3:20 and 3:19, no less.

Since then, Quake has come to earth.  She's had five more races, all at 16F, and finished 8,5,3,3,8.  To make matters worse, her times have regressed.  Quake has been unable to recapture her early magic, making me wonder why KRF insists on running her exclusively at 16F.

The simple truth is... this filly isn't a 16F horse.

Look at her running style.  I've watched several of her races and it's always the same.  She breaks well, takes an early lead, fades in the last 4-5 furlongs.  Wash.  Rinse.  Repeat.

Her HRF fantasy numbers don't support the theory that she is a stayer either.  Yes, she has an above-average Kick rating of 992, but her Stamina rating of 70 screams 9-11 furlongs.  She's got good speed, much better than most long distance horses.  Combine that with her front-running tendancies and you might even have some success at 8F.

I tried to make an offer on Quake a while ago, but never received a reply from Karie.  I even approached Ryan, trying to make an end run into KRF.  He said she'd never sell, so I quit trying.

It kills me to see this horse languish at 16F against the likes of Refractor, Pluto, Alphabet, and all the other real stayers.  She simply cannot beat the top tier horses at 2 miles.  Not gonna happen.  Ever.

My advice?  In this order...

1. Sell her to me, or
2. Run her at 8-11 furlongs, or
3. If she must be run at 16F, do it in Stakes races.

Horses at the crossroads...

As year-end beckons, the urge to clear out the stable becomes stronger and stronger.  There are a couple racers in particular who are very close to being sold...

3yo colt Schoolboy Heart was a impulse buy from Sunshine Stables a few months ago.  He has some decent tools, and is a later maturing type, so I thought he might be worth a chance.  His PSR's have been climbing in the last four races, 36, 71, 78, 89; but I'm thinking that he may have very limited potential.  Perhaps that stall would be more valuable if it was vacant?

3yo colt Art of Seduction was purchased last year as a long-term prospect.  His AR says sprinter, but his low speed / high stamina ratings scream stayer.  He has generally been more productive at longer distances, but he's not showing enough to keep me interested in this experiment.

Both of these colts are racing this weekend and their performances will dictate whether they are on the sales board or not by Sunday afternoon.

Additionally, I am contemplating making some kind of change with my broodmares.  I'd like to introduce some new blood, but it will require moving a mare or two to accommodate the prospective newcomers.  I've got Nebula joining the ranks at the end of the season, giving me 10 broodmares, which is exactly where I want to be numerically.

False Demon, Second Strike, and Shattered Record are mares that could potentially be sold or traded.  FD and SS were both acquired specifically to breed with stable icon War Machine, but the results have been less than expected so far.

I have scoured the available mares at Endless Vista, and I can only say that the pickings are mighty slim.  Prices on mares have gone through the roof in the past couple years, so a straight-up purchase may be out of the question as well.  A broodmare trade may be a possibility.  If anyone has any suggestions or offers, I'm willing to listen.