Battlestar thinks he's better than you...

Battlestar is a gifted horse.  In winning his last two races, the Dubai World Cup and the Massachusetts Handicap, he has made a splash and become noticed by the PF community.

He has a nice combination of speed and stamina, and augmented by his high kick rating, this creates a very formidable opponent at 9 to 12 furlongs.  However, he is not without chinks in his armor.

He is extremely picky on running surfaces, disliking both hard dirt and hard turf.  This has caused many scratches, as evidenced by having only 14 career starts, even though he is in the middle of his 4yo season.

Also, he has his sire's maddening disdain for the competition.  Nightwing was a physically imposing racer who usually towered over his fellow racers.  He had a natural superiority complex and would simply not work at the end of a race, trusting in his raw ability to carry the day.  Unfortunately, this led to 13 second place finishes, with many of them being of the "nipped at the wire" variety.

Battlestar has shown the same tendency.  His last two wins were by half a length and a nose, and both were touch-and-go right to the end.  During a 6-race stretch as a 3yo, he finished 2nd five times!

He has generally completed his races with a surplus of stamina, proving that he could have expended a little more effort to secure the victory.  Unfortunately, like his sire, he doesn't think he should have to exert himself to beat the likes of his inferior competition.  Hopefully that arrogance will not cost him (and me) in his next big race.  

I'm not too worried though.  Battlestar is better than you.

AR says you like distance, why aren't you cooperating?

First things first... when you go into the race files, the line of horse ratings starts like this:

Trophy,Trophy, 75 , 88 , 91 , 70 , 9730.087 , 7667.732 , 1060

Gate Speed - 75

Early speed - 88

Top Speed - 91

Stamina - 70

Kicks - 1060

I haven't any idea what the rest of the data is down the line.  I have been meaning to look into it but haven'y found the time yet.

These rating usually fall into these ranges.  They may even trend higher or lower, but I have not seen anything beyond these ranges.

Gate speed - 58 to 84

Anything below 70 is a pretty slow starter.  Numbers above 80 are very fast starters.  Obviously is is best to be a fast starter if you are a sprinter.  All the speed in the world will not help a sprinter with a 62 gate speed.  A lower gate speed is less critical for a stayer, but there are still combinations that will cripple a distance horse also.  For instance, a stayer who is an extremely slow starter that likes to run on-lead is a bad combo.  He'll kill himself trying to get the lead and wither at the end, especially if he also has poor acceleration.

Early Speed - 82 to 94

Common sense dictates that higher is better.  A horse who is a poor starter who also has poor early speed may find himself out of contention in the first furlong.  Optimally, sprinters will be over 90 here, preferably 92 or higher. I have seen successful distance horses with an 85 in this spot, although 86 or 87 is more typical.

Top Speed - 84 to 94

Same as Early Speed, but more important because the horse will presumably use this rating for a greater percentage of the race.  Top sprinters will check in at 93 or 94, Milers 91 or 92, Classics around 89 or 90, and Stayers at 87 to 88.  Of course there are always exceptions to these rules based on the other attributes the horse does or does not possess.  For instance, Ton of Luck was very successful as a miler with numbers of 80, 90, 90, 69, 1035.  Because of his exceptional kick rating, he was able to compete against and beat slightly faster horses.

Stamina - 64 to 75

Generally speaking:

64-66  SPRINTER

67-69  MILER

70-71  CLASSIC

72-75  DISTANCE

As I said in an article in my blog many moons ago, these ratings are the first step in determining your horses distance ability.  Depending on the aggregate effect of all of their basic and miscellaneous ratings, horses can and do thrive in categories one step removed in each direction.  Going beyond that is virtually impossible.  For instance, a horse with a 65 stamina is not going to compete in Classic races.  Ever.

Kick - 400 to 1250

In my opinion, this rating determines the horses staying power at the end of a race.  The higher this number is, the better, regardless if you are a sprinter, stayer, or anywhere in between.  An abnormally low kick rating, say under 500, is an extreme liability.

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All of these numbers can vary a little bit from race to race depending on rest and other factors.  But, they are generally fairly static once a horse reaches maturity.  Do not expect a 4yo horse that has been tracking with a 67 stamina to suddenly improve to a 70.  It will not happen.

Determining what kind of horse you have on your hands can take time.  By looking at race files by the hundreds you will start to get the flavor of what makes some horses great and others horrible.  

At his peak, when War Machine won the Dubai World Cup in 2006, his numbers were 75, 89, 91, 71, 975.  This is a horse who had the speed of a miler and the stamina of a stayer... little wonder why he blew away his competition in 2006.

A giant among sprinters was Run MIssy Run.  When he won the 2010 Breeders Cup Sprint, his numbers were 76, 93, 94, 67, 900.  Loads of speed and a finishing kick that said adios to competitors at the wire were the reasons that he was so dominating.

It doesn't take a genius to see why these horses were titans in their day.  For most horses though, you have to consider a little more deeply and combine that with the info you can glean from the AR.  In this way you can make a reasonable assessment of the horses abilities, liabilities, and prospects.

In his second race as a 2yo, Battlestar had numbers of 78, 89, 90, 71, 1001.  I knew at that moment, by looking at this immature horse with those colossal numbers, that I had a monster on my hands.  I had to temper my expectations a bit because of his surface pickiness, but I knew he was destined for great achievements.  He rewarded my patience by winning the World Cup this year. 

I'm sure any of you could have ascertained that Battlestar was worth keeping.  That is not the point.  The point is that you should be analyzing your own horses and their strengths and weaknesses.  By doing this, you will stop trying to drive a square peg into a round hole like I have seen happen so many times.

There was a 6F race for 2yo's this weekend and I took a look at the top four finishers out of curiosity.  Here is how they stacked up in order if finish:

Shadowfax  74, 90, 90, 68, 835

Categorise  74, 91, 93, 66, 493

Commando ACOG  72, 89, 89, 70, 684

Mogul  76, 91, 92, 66, 443

What I envision here is that Shadowfax and Commando ACOG are not gonna be sprinters.  They did well in this race because they have stamina and kick ratings that are on the high side for 2yo horses. Their stamina and kick rating are not going to go down and their speed is not going to rise appreciably; meaning that after age 2, they are not gonna have a lot of success at the sprinting game.

Conversely, Categorise and Mogul are sprinters and they will remain sprinters.  Their speed ratings are very high for young horses and they may yet improve a notch or two, and that means that their stamina ratings are destined to stay in the sprinter, possibly miler range.

The reason I know this, is that the total of the top speed and stamina rating will usually not exceed 161.  It has happened on occasion, temporarily, when all of the stars line up perfectly for a horse in a given race.  But 161 is the theoretical combined limit of these two ratings.  So, if Mogul increases his speed at maturity to 94, the highest his stamina will see is 67.  Get it?  He is a sprinter.  Hopefully, his kick will get a little higher or he will be a sprinter who is limited to 6 furlongs.

OK... That is a crash course.  Use this info as you will.  If you have any questions.  Let me know.

Kick - The Misunderstood Stat?

I had a conversation with Chris Campbell of Smokey's Stable today and it prompted me to publish this article, which is basically just a reiteration of the emails we exchanged.

Gate Speed, Early Speed, Top Speed, and Stamina are all easy to comprehend, but that Kick rating seems to confound people and there are even differences of opinion as to it's effect and worth.

Some people do not give the Kick rating much credence, but I think it is very important, and the higher the number, the better.

The distance line on the old AR's was originally determined by using the kick number.  So, if you had a horse with a kick of 1000, it would show up as liking a lot of distance, even though the stamina number may have only been 67, which is more indicative of a sprinter.

My horse, French Twist is a perfect example.  He has a high kick of 1068, but his stamina of 67 limits him to being a miler at best, regardless of the fact that his AR says he like distance.  No way he could make even 9-10 furlongs competitively.

I like a high kick though, even in a sprinter/miler, and I try to breed for it.  A high number lessens the possibility that they will run out of gas in the last furlong.  I have seen horses who have great speed numbers, but because they are handicapped by a minuscule kick rating, they can't make more than 5F, even though they may have an adequate stamina rating.  I've had mature horses that have had Kick ratings under 500 and they have all been unable to compete above 5F.

Methy Bus has a great stamina of 73, so you'd think he might make 16F comfortably.  He can't because his kick is only 742.  In fact, he seems to top out at about 12F.  Astrapios has a 72 stamina, but he can run sub-3:19 at 16F because his kick is up in the 1150 range.

It's really not complicated... whether you are a sprinter or a stayer, the higher the number, the better.  So... don't make it more difficult than it is.  

How much is too much?

Everyone has there own opinion on how much a horse might be worth and a lot of factors go into each person's opinion.

How much racing potential does the horse have?  If it's an older racer, is there still gas in the tank?  Do I think a seemingly mediocre horse has just been mismanaged and I can turn it around?  Maybe it's a proven winner who is on the downslide but I want to add him to my stable as a source of prestige?

It may be a needed stallion or broodmare candidate, or perhaps it is just the offspring of a stallion or mare that I admire.  Maybe I just like the name...

The point is, how I perceive the value may differ vastly from how another stable owner feels.

When Pointgiven Stables paid $6,000,000 for Gradient, I thought the man had lost his mind.  However, it turned out to be a tremendously shrewd investment.  

We've all seen bad deals go down.  Glenmore Park paid $5,510,000 for the stallion Imperiosso, an above average racer who won the 2014 Dubai World Cup, but otherwise had a fairly checkered racing career. Bought for that exorbitant price strictly as a breeder, Imperiosso, who has not sired a foal since 2016, now resides at Endless Vista, having generated virtually zero in breeding fees for Glenmore Park.

Showing that turnabout is fair play, our friends at Glenmore Park got the better end of a deal two years later when yours truly at Otsego Farms paid $4,000,000 for the filly Xtra Gold.  I thought Xtra Gold had a couple more big seasons of racing in her, but that proved to be incorrect.  She was hit-and-miss, winning just $350,000 in her only season of racing at Otsego Farms.  Hopefully, she will pan out as a broodmare so I can recoup the large investment I made.  It is possible that some of you may think that $4M is not too much to pay for a broodmare with her potential. You see?  We all see things differently.  My best mare is In Spirit.  She produces winners and she cost me a reasonable $400,000.  So yes, I think I overspent on Xtra Gold.

I have shaken my head in admiration and in disbelief at some of the deals I've seen over the years.  No matter how educated we all  get... there will always be purchases and sales that defy our own perception of logic;  because we all see things differently, don't we?

On The Prowl is on the move

The 2yo colt Lapsus caught my eye recently.  After performing the appropriate due diligence, I decided that I wanted to own him.

The only problem was that he was owned by Ettore at the Italian stable Olmo Dorato. Ettore is very reasonable, but being the owner of the largest stable in the Photo Finish universe, he obviously doesn't need my money.  A trade for breeding stock was what he had in mind.  He was interested in broodmares Xtra Gold and On The Prowl.  

I bought Xtra Gold from Glenmore Park for $4M in an attempt to bull my way into the sprinting game.  I have way too much invested in this mare to let her go, so she was off the table.

On The Prowl was something I was willing to discuss because she is 13 years old now and has a more limited breeding window than 5yo Xtra Gold.  On the other hand, she was a horse I coveted for a long time, before my good friend Chris Campbell at Smokey's Stable traded her to me for broodmare Shattered Record.  I was loathe to give her up.

With the high prices that good mares are commanding these days, I didn't think it made sense to trade On The Prowl for an untested 2yo, even-up.  I countered to Ettore; asking for $750k and Lapsus, half hoping that he would turn me down... but he took the deal.

Lapsus is a talented classic-type runner in the mold of Methy Bus, at least that is how I see it.  I hope I'm right, because On The Prowl is a helluva nice mare and I'll miss having her in the breeding shed.

They told me..."I got the stamina. I can close." I believed them.

I've been trying to tweak my lineup of broodmares over the past couple of years because I have a need for more true distance mares. They have proven elusive, but I made a couple of acquisitions recently that will temper that need somewhat.

It's true that my two new girls are not marquee broodmares like Dancing Delaware or Domitila, but they have strengths that may bring out the best in Otsego stallions such as Refractor, Union Jack, Alphabet, and Nightwing.  They have stamina.  Lots of it... and at levels that are rare for mares.

Blank KD, a 3yo who was languishing at Endless Vista, has a 73 stamina rating and a lofty kick of 1250, which is the highest kick rating I have ever seen.  She had a terrible record on the track in her first 8 races with a plethora of last or near-last place finishes.  The reason?  She is slow and the races she entered were way too short.  I must admit that I was concerned when I entered her at 12F in her Otsego Farms debut and she still finished last.  But I concluded that even that was too short for her.  I was vindicated by her last race when she put up a 100 PSR at 16F and had plenty of strength left at the finish.

I've had four-year-old Dream d' Oro in my sights for a couple seasons.  She has had a somewhat better racing career than Blank KD up to this point, but my interest in her was as a broodmare.  With 71 stamina and 1086 kick, a very long projected career, and surface PREFER's on everything, she will be perfect match for my stallions.  She also had a mediocre Otsego debut at 12F, before showing her true colors with a 3rd place finish at 16F with a sparkling 102 PSR.

Whether I retire them both at the end of this season, or run them for another year depends on how they perform on the track.  But as I said, I didn't buy them for their racing skill.  I bought them for their stamina.

Shot by my own gun...

I have been one of many people who have been vocal over the years concerning inappropriate entries in big races.  In some races, systems have been instituted to prevent this problem.  Now I find myself affected by these very restrictions that I endorsed, and I'm understanding, but not happy.

I'd like to enter Jackhammer in the Kentucky Derby.  But, despite his 7-3-0-1 record and recent win of the GR1 Melbourne Cup, he does not qualify.  It's completely my own fault, of course.  I hadn't really thought of him as a Derby contender, so I didn't pay particular attention to his schedule in that regard, and hence he has zero points towards qualification.

Tragically, this is a race he could win.  He prefers hard dirt and has HRF numbers that are across-the-board identical to Derby favorite Olympia, except that Jackhammer has a better kick.

So, he will take a different road.  Perhaps entering the Derby Italiano against stable mate Le Chiffre.  I will say this though, if Olympia wins both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, he will have to earn the Triple Crown by beating Jackhammer in the Belmont.

Two year old spotlight

Based on AR info alone, filly Simply Charming is the 2yo that I would have predicted for early success this year.  After all, she matures quickly and projects to be a miler, hence she would have some early opportunities.  But opportunities alone do not guarantee success.  Fortunately, she was blessed with some ability as well.

She has prefer x 3 on dirt surfaces, and no apparent weaknesses in her resume'.  She did win her first race with numbers of 76, 90, 91, 67, 448; good speed for a debut race, and with an expected improvement in stamina and kick, she may have a future that holds promise.

Outside of Simply Charming, the two new Otsego racers that are consensus picks by our training staff are the colts Helikaon and Makes Me Wonder.

Helikaon (War Machine x In Spirit) is a dual surface distance horse.  In training, he is showing very good speed, and above average acceleration.  Plus, he is out of our most successful mare, In Spirit, who has produced Crossbones, Crackerjack, and most notably, recent World Cup winner Battlestar.

Makes Me Wonder (Nightwing x Affirm Gal) is also capable of running on dirt or turf equally well.  He doesn't have the speed of Helikaon, but is extremely strong and will probably be running longer distances. He is a chip off the old block, with his sires penchant for dramatic, come from behind finishes.

When asked what 2yo he had highest hopes for, Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber wasted no time and no extra words in saying, "Kid Shelleen."

Asked why, he snapped, "I like his name."

On heels of Dubai win, Otsego brings home Melbourne Cup

Jackhammer, the 3yo colt by Union Jack, out of Baby Greyhound, nipped Spartan's 4yo Trickster by a nose to win the 16F Melbourne Cup.

Becoming the first 3yo to win this race since Promised Land in 2004, Jackhammer lead wire-to-wire in a dominating performance, fulfilling the prediction Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber made just a week before when he said, "I'm not sure at this point who else will enter, but you can mark Jackhammer down as your winner, regardless."

It was just three years ago that Refractor, another Otsego horse, won this race.  Refractor currently resides as a stallion at Otsego Farms Stud.

"It was an extremely satisfying win.  We've had lofty expectations for Jackhammer and have been bringing him along slowly up until this point.  Obviously, he'll be in all the big distance races from now on", Webber said as he made his way over to the luxury box occupied by Trickster's connections from Spartan Racing.

"Excuse me, I have to go offer my condolences to Ryan..."

Battlestar wins Dubai World Cup

In what many astute observers considered an upset, the 4yo colt Battlestar, took home the biggest prize of the 2018 racing year... the $3.6 million dollar winners check from the World Cup.

Oddsmakers had the Bevelle Farms superstar Negredo as the favorite at 3-1, followed by a logjam of contestants including filly Secret Dane, Vuvuzela, Gris De Gris, and Battlestar, at 9-2.

As race time approached, a rare Dubai cloudburst left the track sloppy which played right into the hands of Battlestar and Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber, who said, "I was prepared to scratch him, and then down came that sudden and heavy rain.  I knew right then that we had a chance."

Most of the racers, with the exception of Victorian's Big Tail, seemed to tolerate the conditions fairly well, but Webber put it this way, "Maybe they will tolerate it, but the won't revel in it like Battlestar does.  He is a mudder through and through, and not many will beat this fella at 10 furlongs in the mud."

Just prior to the race, Webber was asked who he thought would prove the most difficult to beat.  "Negredo's record speaks for itself, and Gris De Gris is always a handful.  Vuvuzela hasn't been able to find the winner's circle much, but he is very talented and cannot ever be ruled out.  Of course the fillies are a threat as well.  Homo Sapiens Filly is very tough at this distance and on this surface, and Secret Dane is a proven money winner."

When asked about the chances of Venial and Big Tail, the two horses he left out of his brief analysis, Webber didn't mince words.  "Venial has never performed well against top-notch competition and Big Tail is pretty much washed up.  Their owners could save those big entry fees because neither one of those guys has a chance."

Webber continued, "Statistically speaking, Secret Dane, Homo Sapiens Filly, and Battlestar are the speed horses in this race.  Vuvuzela, Gris De Gris, and Battlestar are the stamina horses.  Who do we have in common on those two lists?"  With a satisfied look on his face, Webber added, "Throw in the fact that he loves mud, and it's not difficult to see that Battlestar could win this race."

Which of course he did, staving off a threat by Secret Dane down the stretch.

After the race, a jubilant Jim Webber, with the lovely and ageless Elizabeth Hurley on his arm, hosted a celebration attended by fellow owners, Donny Bujak (Chiquita - Secret Dane) and Finlay Lafleur (FDL - Vuvuzela, Gris De Gris) along with their lavish entourages.  

As rare as Unobtainium and just as valuable

In the movie Avatar, the mineral Unobtanium is a superconductor for energy, which makes it very desirable. It is worth $20 million per kilogram unrefined ($40 million refined) on Earth.

Unobtanium's unique properties and scarcity determine it's value.  Similarly, the elusive Excellent stamina rating in Photo Finish does the same.  The horses that possess it are rare and therefore valuable.

Not all horses with EX stamina are superstars, but the vast majority are very good.  In my opinion, this rating above all others, is the most reliable tool to measure the probability of success.

Currently, there are 3174 horses with the RACER designation.  Of this population, only 30 have Excellent stamina.  That is less than 1% of all racers.  Only 17 stables own at least one horse with EX stamina, with just 6 of those stables owning more than one.  The stables that have more than one horse with EX stamina are:

Firstholme - 2

Rivendell - 2

Sunshine - 2

FDL - 3

Pendfold - 3

Otsego - 7

There are only 5 sires who have produced more than one EX stamina horse.  They are:

Braveheart, FDL - 2

Memcay, Rainbow - 2

Heat Seeker, FDL - 2

A Bus, Port Pirie - 2

Union Jack, Otsego - 3

Only one mare has produced more than a single EX stamina horse.  She is list mare Ticket to Dance.

Rarest of the rare?  Fillies with the Ex stamina trait.  Currently, there are just 2 fillies meeting this criteria. That is just .06% of the current racing population.  These two ultra-rare commodities are Dream d'Oro 3F from Absinthe, and Blank KD 2F, from Godolphin17.

Refractor retired after disappointing run in Gold Cup

6yo Refractor led out for his final race

Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber confirmed via telephone that 6yo stayer Refractor has been retired, effective immediately.

"I learned the hard way with War Machine that you don't continue to run a horse after he is past his prime", Webber said regretfully.  An over-the-hill War Machine churned out a lackluster 11-2-1-2 season as a 4yo in 2007.

Refractor's speed and stamina numbers have declined alarmingly in the past couple of races.  After being a steady 74 in stamina for most of his career, he has dropped to 73, then 71 in his last two races.  With his plummeting speed, continuing to race him is a recipe for disaster.

He'll join War Machine, Nightwing, and Union Jack as a stallion in the Otsego Farms breeding operation.

Bewitched, bothered, and bewildered...

In all the years I've been breeding, I don't think I've ever been as uncomfortable as I am this year.

In the past year, I have been tinkering with my band of mares and while I think I have a talented bunch, it seems like I am suddenly leaning a little bit on miler types rather than distance types.  Since my in-house stallions are exclusively stayers, compatibility issues have been created that have me concerned.

Nova, On The Prowl, Champions Dream, House of M, Nebula, and Revenge Troll were all most adept around 8F, with a couple of them being capable of a little more.  Xtra Gold is a sprinter, which leaves only three mares, In Spirit, Arctic Fox, and Ace Of Grace who are compatible, in my mind, with my stallions. How did this happen?

My stallions for 2017; Nightwing, War Machine, Union Jack, Refractor, and most probably Alphabet, are all Classic to Distance.  You see my dilemma?  Add in the fact that I have acquired two spots with A Bus and another with Heat Seeker and you can see where my discomfort is coming from.

As a general rule, I don't like mixing horses with different distance capabilities.  I think it has the potential to create hybrid's that don't do anything well.  Which begs the question... why am I stockpiling mares that are milers? 

I really have no clue at this point how I am going to arrange my pairs.  With contracts for A Bus (Arctic Fox), A Bus (Ace Of Grace), Heat Seeker (House of M), Rocket (On The Prowl), and Byafraction (Nova) already on the books, and another sprinter stallion needed for Xtra Gold, I am left with just four broodmares for my five in-house stallions.  I want to keep Alphabet on as a stallion, even though his talents are clearly redundant.  If I keep him, I may need to bypass Nightwing altogether as a stud this year.  Unless I acquire another broodmare, which I may do.  Anyone have a distance mare they want to sell?  Domitila, Promised Land...?

Stuff I've been thinking...

It looks like Refractor may have come to the end of the road.  That 4th place finish with the 86 PSR in the G2 Sandown Cup was disappointing and somewhat embarrassing for a horse of his stature.  I am reluctant to retire him mid-season, but I don't want to sully his reputation with a string of low PSR, mid-pack finishes.  His core numbers are down and since he's a 6yo, they are probably not going back up.  He'll get one last race to show if there is anything left in the tank.  A poor showing and he'll be immediately retired.

Three-year-old filly Natalia has me quite excited.  She was a $21,000 auction pickup who garnered little attention, even though she had a record of 2-0-2-0.  Natalia has a nice mix of speed and stamina and put it all together for an easy win in her last race at 8.5F.  

Speaking of 3yo's, I'm very bullish on several others that I have in the stable at the moment.  Battlestar is a stayer who has tremendous upside and will be running in the Belmont this coming weekend.  Epic Journey is another distance colt who may end up not being quite good enough for GR1 competition, but he should easily win a couple million in his career.  Hollands Best has stamina to spare and has fashioned PSR's of 110 and 120 in his last two races.  Last but not least, Zombieslayer looks like he may do some damage on the distance circuit as well.  Keep an eye out for these fellows.

It has been very gratifying to see Alphabet bounce back with nice efforts in his last two races.  He finished 2nd in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, then scored a win in the Sagaro Stakes, with PSR's of 106 and 114 respectively.  Alphabet had a disastrous last place finish in the Breeders Cup Endurance to finish last season, but allowances must be made for the fact that his previous owner decided to enter him in that race on a scant 6 days of rest after winning the Prix Royal Oak on October 26th.  What were ya thinking Foxie?  :)

In Spirit has been a pretty reliable broodmare.  Out of the four racing foals she has produced, two are millionaires and a third will undoubtedly become one as well.  What makes this even more remarkable is the fact that I think I've been sending the wrong kinds of studs to her.  Somehow, I got under the impression that she was a 12F type.  In looking over her numbers recently, I believe that she has the genes for milers.  I'm thinking of a stud in the mold of Big Easy for next year.  Just thinking, mind you.  Her last foal, filly She Bangs, by stayer Sinking Fear, looks to be the real deal.  Maybe she'd be better off going to the spot I purchased with FDL's Heat Seeker?

I was starting to wonder...

Otsego Farms broke out in weeks 11-12 with a record of 12: 4-3-1-2 and earnings of $2.1M.

The 8yo super-veteran Shatterstar won his 16th career race and first G2 since he was a 3yo.  With a career record of 54: 16-15-7, he has moved into second place on the all-time Otsego Farms win list, trailing War Machine's 19 wins, and surpassing Union Jack's 15.

"Keep an eye on 3yo colt Epic Journey.  He's about to bust out.  I predict he'll win his next race", quoted Otsego owner Jim Webber on May 27th in the Photo Finish Forum.  EJ came through in a big way by winning the G2 Aami Vase this past weekend.  He was boxed in quite thoroughly until the final furlong when he found space on the inside and cruised past the competition for the win.

Methy Bus went back to 12F to find his mojo and did so in convincing fashion, winning the G2 San Luis Rey Stakes.  Leading from wire-to-wire, Methy Bus bounced back from a couple poor races with this commanding performance.  With his long-peak, it is entirely possible that he'll be back next year as a 7yo.

In a miniscule 4-horse field which included the flashy FDL colt Heat On Mars, Refractor reined supreme in winning the 12F $1,500,000 G1 Caulfield Cup.  For just the second time in his last 19 races, Refractor went less than 16F, but did so in impressive form.  Strangely, the handicappers put just 114 lbs on Refractor; the lowest weight in his career.  Heat On Mars was obviously slowed by the 126 lbs he carried, but we'll take this win and perhaps try Refractor at 12F again in his next race since the 16F field is so crowded with talent at the moment.

Alphabet, who was hampered by a 29 lb weight disadvantage finished 2nd this week.  Other second place finishers were Crackerjack, who picked up $500,000, and Boudica, who forestalled her departure with a nice performance.

Two year old's Big Bang and Tricky Woo both looked horrible, starting extremely slowly, trailing the fields and finishing well back.  I knew that Tricky was going to be a slow starter, but I was very disappointed to see Big Bang follow suit.

Let's shuffle things up a bit, shall we?

In my opinion, my breeding operation has been somewhat unsuccessful.  The studs I have used have been solid (mostly War Machine, Nightwing, and Union Jack) so I felt that a change in the broodmares might be necessary.

After analyzing all of the mares, I decided that the first ones to be replaced will be Affirm Gal and Domino.  Affirm Gal was an above-average runner who has the genes to produce nice distance foals.  However, up to this point she has not meshed well with my studs.  Domino has actually thrown some nice looking foals, but I don't feel comfortable using her with my distance studs because of her propensity to produce sprinter/milers. Her last foal, and first colt, Tesseract (by Kostya) is actually a distance horse who looks exceptional on paper.

Taking their places for 2018 will be newly acquired Revenge Troll and sprinter Xtra Gold who will probably be retired after this season.

Revenge Troll was available from Endless Vista.  Her distance and surface preferences, speed, and intangibles make her an ideal fit at Otsego Farms.  She will certainly retire after this season and will match with War Machine.

Xtra Gold has a similar style as Domino, but is more talented.  I will not use her with any of my stallions, but will try to inject myself into the sprinting business with her as a foundation mare.

Two other Otsego mares, Second Strike and Nebula, may be available for sale or trade if there is any interest.

Just for fun... a prediction!

Picking winners is never a sure thing.  Or is it?

To try to find out, I decided to take a look at a random race this weekend to see if I can predict the outcome, based solely on the horses current stats.

It had to be a race with limited entries because I didn't want to spend a ton of time analyzing 20 horses.  Also, I didn't want to pick a race with a clear cut favorite.  Scanning down the list, the San Vicente Stakes seemed to meet the criteria.  Six 3yo colts competing at 7F, and I was unfamiliar with all of them.

After my first glance I was sure of one thing; Sisqo Falls and WalkingOnSunshine will not win.  Both are too slow to compete in this race. 

Crash Landing and Last Fine Drop are very similar horses and they will battle for 3rd/4th place.  Flip a coin.

My Boy Brandon and Unrepentant are the cream of this crop and one of these two will win with the other finishing second.  Based on the fact that My Boy Brandon will have a blazing start and should be able to hang on to the lead and Unrepentant will be working on a scant 21 days rest, I'll predict the final outcome as:

1. My Boy Brandon
2. Unrepentant
3. Crash Landing
4. Last Fine Drop
5. Sisqo Falls
6. WalkingOnSunshine

Remember, nothing is foolproof.  If the top two swapped places it wouldn't surprise me.  It's possible that either CL or LFD could creep into second place,  However, I will guarantee that neither SF or WOS will win.

We'll see tomorrow morning!

You may have heard all this before...

BS, ES, TS, ST, KI

Break Speed, Early Speed, Top Speed, Stamina, Kick.

Many of you are very familiar with these ratings.  Some of you know of their existence, but take them with a grain of salt.  Others are totally unaware of them. 

Personally, I think that understanding these numbers is paramount to understanding your horses.

There are a couple dozen other factors that interact and affect your horses performance.  So these five core ratings are not the only things that determine whether you've got a Turf Monster or a Thunder Arctic on your hands.  It is very difficult though, if not impossible, to locate, decipher and interpret all of the other ratings.  Therefore, reliance on these numbers is the easiest way to try to get a handle on your horse.

Break Speed

Sometimes I refer to it as Gate Speed.  Typically ranges from about 65 to 85 with the higher number being faster.  Sprinters would benefit from a BS that is as high as possible.  A horse with an 80+ BS will vault out of the gate and attempt to grab an early lead.  If you are producing sprinters, I would try to breed for a fast break speed and a front running style.  A sprinter who is a rocket-type starter and has a come-from-behind racing style will probably have limited success.  Those two attributes just don't play well together, in most cases.

Early Speed

Usually as low as 83 and tops out at 94.  The importance of this number depends on the style of runner you have and the distance of the race.  For example, if you have a horse who is a front runner, but has horrible break speed and poor early speed, you may have a problem.  He'll be trying to get to the lead, but will be handicapped by a bad start and slow initial speed.  More than likely, he'll labor early at effort level 4 or 5, trying to follow his preferred running style, but will run out of gas and fade badly.  Early speed is less essential on stayers.

Top Speed

TS is the glamour stat.  This has the narrowest band, usually running between 86 and 94.  Whether you have a sprinter, a miler, a classic, or an endurance runner, the higher the number, the better.  Top-notch sprinters will be at 94 and endurance types usually check in at about 87 or 88.

Stamina

I've seen 'em as low as 64 and as high as 74.  This number is the best indicator of what distance you should be running a particular horse at, regardless what the AR says.  There is an article in the Otsego Insider dated March 27th that talks specifically about stamina.

Kick

A misunderstood stat.  This number ranges from 400 to 1200.  Most of the top stayers have a Kick rating above 1000.  But there are sprinters that have gaudy kick numbers as well.  French Twist has a TS of 93 and a stamina of 67, which makes him a sprinter in my mind.  He does have a current kick rating of 1068, which is as high as Refractor!  In my mind, the stamina rating takes precedence, so I believe he'll remain a sprinter, but I expect him to display more steam in the final furlong than the typical sprinter.

Run Missy Run was one of the most dominant sprinters in Photo Finish history.  In his prime, he stacked up WR's and TR's like Lincoln Logs.  His stats at his prime were 77-94-94-66-789.  He was a  better than average starter with blazing early and top speed.  His 66 stamina screamed sprinter, and that's where he did most of his damage, but he had an above-average kick of 789 and that enabled him to stretch successfully up to 8 furlongs.

I randomly chose a horse to analyze.  Hot As A Pepper had a mostly lackluster career as a sprinter, never topping PSR 100.  His numbers at his prime were 77-89-90-71-501, and a couple things stand right out.  1) His speed was too low to compete as a successful sprinter.  2) His stamina of 71 suggested he was more of a classic type, even though he had a below average kick of 501.  He probably wouldn't have panned out in the classic arena either, but one thing was for sure, this bird was no sprinter.

Just some stuff to think about.

Time to swallow my pride...

I'm gonna make this short and sweet.

I overreacted to some criticism the other day.  Most of you know the story.  I think I was somewhat justified by my indignation, but I was certainly hasty when it came to making the decision to quit Photo Finish.

Even though I regretted the decision almost immediately, I was determined to see it through, because I felt it would be an embarrassment to renege on such a dramatic proclamation.

However, in the last 48 hours I have received many touching messages and emails and these have reminded me of what I would be giving up.  I do consider everyone at Photo Finish to be part of an extended family and the fact is... I'd just miss you all too much.

So.... even though there will be smirkers that say, "I knew he wouldn't do it", I'm going to stay.

I'd like to thank those of you that wrote to me.  It meant a lot.  Truly.  (Why do I feel like I'm up at a podium accepting an Oscar or something like that?)

Please don't say anything more nice about me.  I beg you.  I couldn't take it. 

Thanks and I love ya all!  Well, most of you.  Some of you, that is.  A couple of you anyway. 

It's been real...

Otsego Farms has ceased operations effective immediately.

Thanks for all the friendships over the past 10 years.  Cya!