It's never too early...

	Olympia
Prince Charming
	Southern Charm

Breeding is still months away, but I've been thinking about pairings already and I think I have it all pretty much worked out.

In-house stallions Nightwing, Refractor, and Alphabet will breed with a single mare each, with Alphabet getting a crack at the super-productive mare In Spirit.

War Machine, Union Jack, and newcomer Methy Bus will have two mares apiece.  War Machine x Quake is a particularly exciting combo.  We love her speed, stamina, and on-lead racing tendencies matched with the Triple Crown Champion.

We also have three stallions lined up that we have never used; Olympia, Druido Supremo, and Capro Espiatorio.  Olympia will have the honor of breeding with Southern Charm, in a match we really like.  Capro and stable favorite House of M will pair up, as will Druido Supremo and Dream d'Oro.

The hardest part of this process will be culling the herd enough to make space for the incoming 12 foals.  Some tough decisions will be made...

PS - I've got dibs on the name Prince Charming.

Another interesting factoid...

I can't believe that I didn't know this already...

Infinity World won the Aoba Sho a couple weeks ago.  As I was looking at the horse results today, with respect to records and PSR's after this weeks races, I noticed that Le Chiffre won the same race in 2018.

Interesting, I thought.  Otsego Farms has won that race two years in a row,

That prompted me to go to the race search and look up the historical results of the Aoba Sho.  I wondered who else might have won the race in the past.

Lo and behold!  I see that Otsego Farms also won the race two years ago.  I had completely forgotten that Zombieslayer took that honor as well in 2017.  So, we have won the race three consecutive years.

So, the question is... which of my horses will win it next year?  Too soon to tell...

Just thinking about the Japanese Derby...

I found it interesting that there were only 9 entries in this lucrative 3yo race.  Out of curiosity, I checked the field sizes for every season it has been run... 6, 4, 4, 8, 8, 7, 7, 9!  So, this is actually the largest field since the inaugural year.  That first race was won, by the way, by Nightwing's most prolific offspring, Daredevil.

I wonder why such a monstrously rewarding race has such small fields?  Well that is a topic for another time...

The 2019 field could actually be a little smaller because there are two horses entered who have little hope in this race.  

Astro Pop from Victorian Racing Stables is the better of the two by a wide margin, but still has no chance to hit the money in this race.  His stamina and kick are both very suspect, and based on his racing history, I wonder why his connections ever even considered throwing this entry fee right out the window, because that is exactly what they did.

But as bad as that decision was, Spartan Racing Stables takes the cake with the Tiny Monsters entry.  This horse has a 99.9% probability of coming in last place and if that doesn't happen, I will be dumbfounded.  He would be lucky to make 8F with dignity, let alone 12F.  He finished last in the 12.5F Victoria Derby and was almost 100 lengths off the lead.  Pure folly and Ryan knows that...

Hong Kong from  Port Pirie, Shadow Walker from Foxies Lodge, and Pendfold's Vocal Enforcer are all perfectly reasonable entries, but I see them finishing in the middle of the pack, with Vocal Enforcer being at the bottom of the three.

The winner will come from this group:

• Atonement - Snowbank
• Infinity World - Otsego Farms
• Luminare - Olmo Dorato
• Overdue - FDL Lodge

The filly, Overdue, is riding a 4-race winning streak, and the last one was at 12F in the Japanese Oaks.  She is the fastest horse in this race, but I still wonder about her ability to do 12F against the colts.  For that reason, I suspect she won't win, but I do expect her to be very competitive.  If one of the four listed above were to fall out of contention, I would guess it would be Overdue, at the hands of Shadow Walker.

Atonement is scary because of his enormous stamina rating.  If he gets a clean run, he could easily win this race.

Infinity World has a nice mix of stayer-type speed and stamina.  He is a notoriously slow starter, but there are only a couple horses that have more speed, and neither is optimal at 12F.

Luminare is very similar to Infinity World in ability.  They met at the Aoba Sho a month ago and the Otsego colt won by 2.4L.  Vocal Enforcer finished 3rd in that race.

I'm not going to make a prediction in this race other than to say that Atonement, Infinity World, and Luminare will finish in the top 3.  Overdue and Shadow Walker would be my top two choices to crack that group if the trip so dictates.

Good luck to all.

Stable Spotlight - Alydar Stables

Richard Childers has been in operation since the 2004 season, making him another seasoned Photo Finish veteran.

Alydar is a 126-stall stable with 4 standing stallions and 27 broodmares.  Richard mentioned his mare Tora Tora Tora as his sentimental favorite due to the fact that she was one of his original 5 horses and was the main cornerstone of his stable.  

His top accomplishment was "finally" winning a Breeders Cup race.   Frequency won the BC Distaff in 2016 (beating my mare House of M in the process, I might add).

Richard can be reached at rlcalydar@msn.com or via the PF messenger as Alydar.

Stable update...

Simply Charming, 3yo filly, is quickly becoming a stable favorite.  It's no wonder... winning has that effect on people.

When she won the Carlos Salazar Stakes this weekend, it was her 6th consecutive win, prompting Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber to comment, "I haven't checked the records, but I think that is the longest winning streak since War Machine won 12 in a row."

But, while War Machine was doing it in races like the Breeders Cup Juvenile, Dubai World Cup, Kentucky Derby, and Breeders Cup Classic, Simply Charming has been winning modest ungraded stakes races.

Webber recently stated "We've been meaning to step her up a bit, but she just keeps winning these races and we haven't wanted to jinx anything."

Stable insiders confided that Simply Charming may not have the necessary skills to compete at GR1 or GR2 races.

In other stable news, veteran Methy Bus may have run his last race.  Trainers report that, at age 8, his abilities are finally starting to erode to the point where he may not be competitive in the types of races he is accustomed to running.  Also, 6yo Acquarella is reaching the end of the line with Otsego Farms and will be put on the sales page very soon.

Battlestar, the talented but surface-picky male, is in his last season at our stable as well.  He will not stay on as a stallion, so we are willing to send him to another stable either now or at the end of the year.

Incoming broodmares

Potential broodmares are very pricey these days.  

The Sweeney, a well-bred, but unheralded 3YO filly from Bally Doyle, was recently sold at auction for over $2,000,000.  I've looked at the horses numbers and they are very solid.  Solid enough that I considered bidding on her myself.  Only two things stopped me, the price got too high, and I will never own a horse whose name starts with "The".

For those of us who don't have the resources, or the desire to spend millions on mares, there is a great alternative.  At Endless Vista, there are a multitude of potential broodmares just waiting to be plucked up at the bargain basement price of $10,000.  Otsego Farms purchased two just yesterday.

Yes, you do have to dig a little because there are quite a few to slog through and many of them aren't worth the time or trouble, but you gotta kiss a few frogs to find that prince (or princess, in this case), right?

I picked up 6YO's Firefox and Smart Goer.  Firefox had just a decent racing career and Smart Goer was winless in six career starts, but I didn't buy them because of their records.  They came on board because they can both produce Classic or better offspring with good kick ratings.  Firefox looks like she would be a sweet match with War Machine, and Smart Goer will head to one of the distance boys.  That puts me back at 12 broodmares, exactly where I want to be.

I have had my eye on these two for weeks.  I didn't think they would be on anyone's radar, but I was nervous while I waited to make space to accommodate them.  The recent sale of four veteran horses to Elite give me the room to finally pull the trigger.

Anyway... don't forget Endless Vista.  It is a viable alternative versus spending the big dollars necessary for acquiring broodmares via auction.

For The Love Of Numbers

Hi, my name is Doug, and I have numerophilia. Okay, so I'm not sure that's an actual word...and my spell checker is pretty adamant that it isn't an actual word. Then again, I found it in an online dictionary. As everyone knows, they can't put something on the internet if it isn't true. Right?

Anyway, I'm going to go with it. I have numerophilia. That makes me a numerophiliac. No, I said NUMERO, not the other one. A love of numbers, not of dead things. That's how nasty rumors get started.

Stall strategy

I'm very comfortable at 80 stalls.  I've thought about expanding, but I really don't have the time to manage more horses.  So 80 it is and 80 it will remain.

So, occasionally I have to churn through some horses who have outgrown their usefulness... as far as I am concerned.  They aren't producing as much as I'd like to see, I'm not keeping them as breeders, and I need to open up space for the next batch of foals... so something has to give.

These horses are available and I will sell them privately if there is any interest from stables that see this post.

French Twist - 5M

Sisqo Falls - 5M

Zombieslayer - 5M

Na'vi - 4M 

Viperwolf - 4M

I've got 79 horses now, so if I sell these 5 then add the 2 broodmares I need, I'll be at 76.  That means I'll only have 4 stalls available to cover 12 incoming foals.  Yikes... between now and the end of the season 8 more horses will have to go!

Oh well, first things first.  I need to find homes for these five, and none of them are bums.  Any takers?

I'm so excited!

Doug Shepard, better known in Photo Finish circles as DJ, or the Stat Man, has agreed to come on board as a writer on the Otsego Insider.

As a mathematician, DJ is often mentioned along with such notables as Euclid, Archimedes, and Pythagoras, so we should be seeing some articles that will far exceed the tripe you have come to expect from the likes of me.

Welcome aboard and let's get to work!

Quick analysis of my KYD picks...

My prediction was:

1. Affection
2. Commando ACOG
3. Polar Princess

I mentioned that if there was one horse who who crack this triumvirate, it would be Rico Suave.

Official order of finish:

1. Affection
2. Rico Suave
3. Commando ACOG

That seems like a success to me.

Affection won the race easily, which is what I expected.  She got in the clear early, which was the only concern I had, then let her speed dictate.

Rico Suave was stalking and waiting for an opportunity to let his exceptional stamina kick in.  He finished a strong second, but never challenged Affection.

Commando ACOG ran a courageous race, but wasn't firing at his usual level.  In spite of what his connections say, I think the weight and shortish rest were both factors.  He was clearly spent at the finish and if the race had gone another 1/2 furlong, Lapsus would have caught him.

Lapsus had a better than usual start and was initially only 8 lengths off the lead,  He did slip to 11 lengths back, but was close enough to mount his typical charge to get into the money.

Polar Princess, who I tabbed for 3rd, faded a bit at the end and finished 5th.

I said that none of the follwing had a shot: Californication, Danny Boy, Jersey Shore, Twenty Four, and WrestleMania.  They finished 6th, 9th, 8th, 7th, and 12th.

I thought both Dipolar Bond and Incubus would miss the money, but I didn't expect them to finish so far down the line.  In the case of Incubus, it was undoubtedly lack of rest.

My call on WWE Raw was right on target.  I said " The Kentucky Derby will be his 4th race in 55 days; a bill that may come due in the last few furlongs of this race."  He went from 6th to 13th in the final 2 furlongs.  Saw that coming!

Twenty Four made his late push like I thought he would, but it wasn't enough, like I knew it wouldn't be.

I had questions about Jersey Shore making 10F.  I think those were answered.

That was fun!  Let's do it again!

2019 Kentucky Derby - Prediction

Handicapping normal, run-of-the-mill Photo Finish races isn't really that hard.  Most of the time, there is a horse who's ability stands above the rest, and conversely, there are usually many horses that clearly cannot win.

Races like the Kentucky Derby are not quite as easy because these horses have to meet minimum qualification standards; there will be no tomato cans that are in there strictly for the owners bragging rights.  Because of elevated quality level of all entrants in this race, there is a somewhat blurrier line of demarcation between the haves and have-nots.

In doing a cursory review of the entire field, no horse stands out as a clear favorite to me.

The Speed horses are Danny Boy and the fillies Affection, Jersey Shore, and Polar Princess.  The Stamina horses are Lapsus, Rico Suave, Twenty Four, and WWE Raw.

Fast starters are Danny Boy, Dipolar Bond, Polar Princess, and Rico Suave.  Slow starters are Californication and Lapsus.

Horses that may have a problem with 126 lbs are Commando ACOG, Danny Boy, Dipolar Bond, and Californication.  None of the fillies are susceptible to weight issues.

Several horses will be running on just 17 days rest, which could be telling.  They are Incubus, Jersey Shore, Twenty Four, WrestleMania, WWE Raw, and Californication.  Many of these horses ran recently in an effort to qualify for this race.  We shall see if that strategy has sapped their strength. Commando ACOG, Dipolar Bond, and Polar Princess will all operate at an acceptable, but less than ideal 24 days rest.

AFFECTION - I like the speed of this filly.  She's probably the fastest horse in the field, but she's a bit of a slow starter, so she might not get to use her early speed if she's bogged down back in the pack.  The fact that it's a smallish field will help her navigate to better use her speed.

CALIFORNICATION - This horse will certainly have to come from behind because he is the slowest starter in the field, plus his early speed is mediocre as well.  He's not gonna love the 126 lbs he'll be carrying either.  He does have sufficient stamina for 10F however.

COMMANDO ACOG - He's on a roll and would have to be considered one of the favorites.  He's not one of the fastest or one of the strongest, but he has a nice steady skill set that makes him very dangerous.  It's possible that he will be unable to handle the weight he'll get in this race.

DANNY BOY - He's a good starter and has speed, but his stamina is the worst in the field and his kick average kick will not offer much support.  He'll be in the mix for awhile, but won't be around for the excitement at the wire.

DIPOLAR BOND - This horse has sneaky good stats.  Nothing to blow you away, but solid across the board.  The only chink in the armor may be an inability to deal with a lot of weight, and that may explain why he has not broken his maiden yet.

INCUBUS - A slightly less talented version of Commando ACOG who has been gaining traction in his last couple of races.  Has no real weaknesses, but as mentioned earlier, will be coming into the Derby on short rest.

JERSEY SHORE - This filly is very similar to Affection except that her kick rating is quite a bit lower.  It's low enough to make me unsure about her ability to cover 10F, although she looked good over 9F in winning the Wood Memorial.

LAPSUS - Another slow starter who will trail the field for most of the race.  Excellent stamina, average kick, and one of the slower horses in the field.  He will hope to travel the rail in mid-pack, then rally down the stretch.  May not have enough at the end.

POLAR PRINCESS - A very consistent racer who has already shown her chops at 10F in winning the Revenge Stakes.  She's a quick starter with good speed.  It's possible she could jump out front and go wire-to-wire, but she was beaten by both Commando ACOG and Dipolar Bond at Santa Anita.

RICO SUAVE - One of the two slowest horses in this race in terms of top speed, but also one of only two with a 73 stamina rating.  He's fast out of the gate, so he should be in the mix early.  He'll slip back a bit behind the faster horses, but will be there at the end.

TWENTY FOUR - Slowish out of the gate plus poor early speed will have Twenty Four in the back third for most of the race.  He should make a push towards the end, but he's not fast enough to make a difference.  Probably a better bet in the Belmont.

WRESTLEMANIA - A talented filly who has a pretty strong overall game, but not strong enough to win this race.  If she gets the right kind of trip, she could raise some eyebrows, but more than likely she'll finish down the line.

WWE RAW - The other horse with the 73 stamina rating.  Very strong and another who may shine in the Belmont if he has any gas left in the tank.  Has had a busy schedule.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 4th race in 55 days; a bill that may come due in the last few furlongs of this race.

PREDICTION:

I feel that there are 8 horses that have a shot at hitting the board in this race.  For various reasons, I would eliminate Californication, Danny Boy, Jersey Shore, Twenty Four, and WrestleMania.

Lapsus is going to fall too far behind to catch the speed horses in this race, so he's also out.  Rico Suave and WWE Raw are very similar and Rico smashed him head-to-head twice, most recently in the GalleryFurniture.com race, so WWE Raw is out.  Thus we are down to six.

Seems to me that Affection and Commando ACOG are definitely gonna hit the board.  So, four horses are left: Dipolar Bond, Incubus, Polar Princess, and Rico Suave.

I'd take Dipolar Bond over Incubus and Polar Princess over Rico Suave, so we are down to one final choice.  I would expect Polar Princess to beat Dipolar Bond  because of her better ability to handle the weight.

WIN: Affection

PLACE: Commando ACOG

SHOW: Polar Princess

I think that Rico Suave has the best bet to crack that trio.  But, as mentioned earlier, this is a very tough race to call and I would not be surprised if any of my top eight were to emerge victorious.

Good luck to all.

Best laid plans of mice and men...

The plan was to have four Otsego Farms horses in the 2019 Kentucky Derby... but it didn't quite work out.  

Helikaon, perhaps out best "on-paper" chance at winning the race, and Infinity World, both missed out by the narrowest of margins.  Eight points were required to qualify for a spot and both horses only managed seven.

"I knew it was gonna be tight." a disappointed Otsego owner Jim Webber said late Sunday evening.  "We could have sent them out this weekend to try to scare up a couple more points, but in doing so, we felt they might not be ready for the Derby on May 1st.  So, we took a chance that their points would hold up."  After a moment he continued with a shrug, "They didn't."

On the bright side, Rico Suave and Lapsus will both make the trip, prompting Webber to say, "They are both legitimate threats and well-rested.  We'll see ya in Kentucky."  

If you're curious...

In all my years at Photo Finish, I have never done this before.  I wondered what my average HRF numbers for my entire stable.

I breed strictly for distance, so I expected the speed numbers to be on the low side and the stamina/kick numbers to be on the high side.  I did exclude the stats on the 2yo's, since the horses are immature and the numbers are volatile.

This is what I got:

GATE	EARLY	TOP	STAM	KICK
74.50	87.86	89.18	70.77	970.36

Gate speed a smidgen below average, which does not surprise me since I have quite a few horses who start slow and come from behind.

Early and Top speeds are exactly in line with my expectations.  I like the Top Speed 87/88 range for my stayers and that number reflects a little higher because of a select few like French Twist (93), Kid Shelleen (92), Simply Charming (92), Helikaon (91), and Scarlet Witch (91) who have some speed.  Interestingly, only Twist and Charming are sprinters in that group.

Average Stamina and Kick numbers show that the average runner in my barn is at least a Classic type.

Stable Spotlight - Golden Acres

Aussie Steven Williams, owner of Golden Acres, has been an active and outspoken member of Photo Finish since 2004.

He is in the midst of expanding his stable, so these numbers may have changed a bit since he submitted the questionnaire.  With approximately 167 stalls and plans to hit 200 by the end of the season, Golden Acres is one of our larger organizations.

With the recent acquisition of Molecular, he's currently got 4 stallions.  Thirty Four broodmares round out a large breeding operation.

His favorite horse is the filly Hagrid's Backhand, who won the Kentucky Derby and then followed that up with the Horse of the Year award in the same season.

Picking his top accomplishment was tough, but he decided it was breeding and managing Run Missy Run, who was an extremely accomplished racer, and is continuing his success as a top ranked stallion.

Steven can be reached via email at Herbie_569@hotmail.com, and on the message board as STEVEN.

Thrills and disappointments

Jackhammer outduels Bene There at the Dubai Sheema Classic

Weeks 13-14 were pivotal for Otsego Farms.  We had some stunning successes, and some critical shortfalls.

On the plus side, Jackhammer showed incredible grit down the stretch in winning the Dubai Sheema Classic by the slimmest of margins over Pendfold's 4yo Bene There.  Clearly spent,  Jackhammer nevertheless dug deep to nose out the victory, also knocking off Rainbow's mega-star Metalloid in the process.

Never short on colorful expressions, jubilant Otsego owner Jim Webber mopped his brow and stated, "I may have soiled myself at that finish..."

Le Chiffre had an easy time in cruising to a 8-length victory in the Melbourne Cup.  This marks the second straight year that Otsego Farms has won this race, with the aforementioned Jackhammer winning it last season.

Rico Suave solidified his Kentuck Derby berth with a strong first place showing in the Gallery Furniture.com Stakes.  He was challenged by the Long Island Hayburners colt My Wife (what's with that name?) but had a little too much and pulled away for the victory.

Otsego Farms' stated goal of having four entries in the 2019 Kentucky Derby took a bad turn when three of the horses failed to make good on their opportunities.  Infinity World finished 4th in the same race Rico Suave won.  Then Lapsus and Helikaon finished 3rd and 4th in the UAE Derby; both horses had extremely odd trips, settling waaay back and only making moves when the first two places were already pretty much settled.

Battlestar, hoping to defend his Dubai World Cup title, scratched out when the track came up fast and dry.  He won it last year when the track inexplicably came up muddy. 

We must mention the 2yo colt Hella Good (War Machine x On The Prowl), who finished 6th in the Dubai Juvenile, and looked darn good in doing so.  His future looks very bright.

Why wouldn't I?

So, I see an unraced 2yo sitting out on the sales page at the bargain basement buy now price of $1...

Noble Savage (Wekiva Bay x Savage Garden), is an early maturing type, who is projected to have a long career.  He is a distance horse who is decent on all surfaces.

I can understand why Absinthe sold him; she is concentrating on the sprinting game.  She could have held out for a little more money, but was evidently in a hurry to make space.  I've done the same thing on more than a few occasions.

This fellow is well-bred and ready to race.  I only had one open stall so I wasn't really in the market, especially since I have my eye on a horse at Endless Vista, but it seemed like a deal I just couldn't pass up.  I guess I just happened to be in the right place at the right time.  Like a midget at a urinal, you gotta stay on your toes.

Done deal.  Welcome aboard Noble Savage.

Stable Spotlight - Under The Weeping Moon

Doug Shepard, aka DJ, aka The Stat Man, joined Photo Finish in the Fall of 2003 and has been a quietly integral part of our community ever since.

Using my modest 80-stall stable as a measuring stick, I would classify Under The Weeping Moon as a large stable at 165 stalls.  He also employs 10 stallions (maybe 9, as he was contemplating a sale) and 27 broodmares.

He cited the dark grey filly Lava Drop as his favorite horse, since she was instrumental in getting him off to a good financial start in his early years.  In humble fashion, DJ say his stables top accomplishment is simply surviving as long as it has.  

The Stat Man can be reached on the forum as "weeping moon" or via email at djweepingmoon@aol.com,  Odds are 50/50 that this information is correct, though there is only a 10% chance of that.

And they're off!.... Ummm... hello?

Three year old filly Scarlet Witch (War Machine x Nova) has some talent.  No doubt about that.  But that gate speed... what?

She has been tracking at around 65... which is slow.  The slowest in my stable, in fact.  I haven't been overly concerned about it because she is a borderline Classic racer and blazing starts are not paramount at those distances.  However, her performance in the GR2 Rampart Handicap certainly got my attention.

She came out of the gates like a three-legged tortoise and was 20+ lengths behind in the first 2F.  She ran fine for the rest of the race and made up some ground, finishing 8th out of 12 but it's obvious that there must be improvement at the gun or her career is in jeopardy, at least here at Otsego Farms.

Post race inspection revealed a gate speed of 60!  That is incredibly low; perhaps the lowest I've ever had in my stable.  It's a shame too, because in all other respects, this horse has real potential.

Her next race will be critical.  I either see some improvement in her gate speed, or I'm tossing her back in the pond.

Things are shaping up nicely...

My master plan to get multiple entries into the 2019 Kentucky Derby got a nice shot in the arm today with three horses picking up critical qualification points:

Helikaon - 1st - GR2 Fountain of Youth Stakes

Infinity World - 2nd - GR1 Gulfstream Park Handicap

Rico Suave - 2nd - GR2 Revenge Stakes

Lapsus collared a win in last weeks GR3 Risen Star Stakes, so I currently have four colts in the top 15 spots for Derby qualification.

Of course, my plans may be dashed in the event of a 20-horse field, which might guarantee me just a single spot in the Derby.  However, since we have not had a full field in 5 years, we are hoping that we can get 2, 3, or 4 horses in the field.  

The rules may be a little fuzzy in this regard, so I am inquiring as to the feasibility of 4 entries from Otsego Farms... if all of them stay in the top 20.  This is my goal, and if we go strictly by the rule of top-20 horses getting priority, perhaps it's a possibility.

Exactly as advertised?

Of course I won't know for sure until I get to see her on the track, but my 1YO filly, Maleficent has early tongues wagging here at Otsego Farms.

A while ago, I did a piece on horses with Excellent stamina.  At that time, my stallion Union Jack, had sired the most offspring with the EX stamina trait.  A little more digging unearthed the fact that list mare Ticket to Dance had produced the most foals with that same trait.  What could be more ideal than to throw these two together and see what they can manufacture?

The result was a bay filly by the name of Maleficent.  Compact like her sire, she looks to be a pure turfer who loves distance.  

There are no holes or idiosyncrasies in her AR that worry me.  In fact, she projects to be may favorite kind of racer... a come-from-behind stayer, ala Nightwing.

Truth be told... I was hoping for a colt from this pairing, but one takes what one gets, right?  Hopefully, she will be worthy to keep on as a broodmare after her racing days are over.