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Laurie mentioned that it would be nice if she received an email notification whenever new content was posted on this blog.

I thought that is a great idea, so I added the Follow by Email widget.  It is located at the top right hand corner.

I'm not exactly sure how it works.  It may send you a notice, or it may just send the whole article.  Laurie signed up, so this post will be a test.  So... if you're interested, sign up!

Underused Sires - 2nd Edition - Active Duty

Underused Sires – Second Edition

In looking for a stallion for my sprinter mares there are several stallions that get a lot of interest.  Run Missy Run, Deux Francais, Parisian Sheikh and Reining Money seem to get their fair share of broodmares.  So I started searching for a stallion that shows promise and has a significant amount of availability. 

I my search, I found a sprinting stallion that could run on everything but a rainy day.  Active Duty prefers Hard Dirt, Soft Dirt, Hard Turf and Soft Turf.  He is poor in mud though.  

Active Duty was bred and is owned by Snowbank Farms.

Active Duty is the only foal from the list stallion General Nediym.  Active Duty is out of the broodmare Diabla.  Diabla has 8 foals of racing age, 3 have become millionaires.  Diabla is the 2^nd oldest foal out of the great broodmare Demoness.  Demoness has 13 foals of racing age, 7 that have earned a million or more.  Regal Son with over 33 million in earnings is her best earning offspring. 

Active Duty won 13 races during his career.  He won 1 Grade 1 and 7 Grade 2 races.  He cashed checks of $100,000 or more 11 times during his career.  He won races from 5.5 to 7 furlongs.  He posted PSR’s of 110 and higher 12 times in his racing career.

This season will be his 3^rd season at stud.  In his first 2 years he has only seen 2 mares in his first breeding season and 5 in his second season. 

He is currently being advertised on the forum for a $10,000 stud fee.  At this writing he has plenty of availability.  Only 3 spots are currently reserved.  

Webber: "Otsego's best 3yo crop ever!"

Helikaon, Infinity World, Kid Shelleen, Lapsus, Rico Suave, Scarlet Witch, Simply Charming.   Together, they comprise the best 3yo crop I have ever had... by a wide margin.

Helikaon (12-5-1-5) is a classic-style racer who has never finished out of the money.  When his career is over, he will carry on as a stallion, filling the niche that War Machine currently fills.

Infinity World (13-3-2-2) has a little more distance in him than Helikaon and has proven to be a very consistent performer.  

Kid Shelleen (11-1-4-2) has better talent than is reflected in his record.  Just recently broke his maiden, and we expect nothing but good things from him going forward.

Lapsus (12-5-3-1) might be the best of the lot.  His PSR's are not as gaudy, but he appears to be a opportunistic, big-money winner with earnings of $1.2M in his last three races.

Rico Suave (10-3-4-1) is the distance stud.  Hasn't sprung for the big win yet, but finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Belmont.

Scarlet Witch (10-2-3-1) is a slow starter with a killer finishing kick.  Definitely will stay on as a broodmare when her racing career is over.

Simply Charming (12-8-1-1) has the eye-popping record.  Questions about her ability in higher graded races were answered with her win in the GR1 Test Stakes.  Upward and onward for her.

Five of the seven are home grown and their combined record is 80-27-18-13.  I'll take that.

Tipping the Scales

There has been a lot of chatter recently on the forum about the weighty matter of…. weights!

Several players have made big points and long winded statements on why they feel their horses have been unfairly burdened in races and that something needs to be done.

They seem to be under the impression that when running the races Laurie can change the weights to make them fair/realistic so that their horse can run with a weight allowance that they feel is correct based on their intimate knowledge of racing.

Whilst this topic does seem to be a fair challenge, there is absolutely nothing that can be done by Laurie when running the races to ensure that horses are allocated a correct weight. And not a chance that a new scratch will be added either! The weights are assigned by the HRFan program and anyone who has any working knowledge of this system will know that the creator was probably high on something when setting the weights algorithm!

There is something in the programming that knows the best horse for the race and 9 times out of 10 the highweight of the field will be the best horse in the race (you as an owner may not agree but its reading stats drilled down much further than we can understand)

It does allow fillies/mares to carry less than their male counterparts so in that instance it is reflective of what happens in the real racing world.  And generally it assigns less weight to younger horses although as the season progresses and horses “mature” the difference is mitigated.

This weeks racing throws up a nice example of what is “wrong” in the system - the winner, Black Vertigo, carried 126lbs (9 stone or 57kgs) which is a hefty weight for a 2yr old when considering that the only older horse in the race carried 101lbs (7st 21oz or 45.8kgs). Zulu must have thought he was in the paddock running with 98lbs (7stone or 44.5kgs).  (Not even going to go down the route if why a 2yr old is running over 10f that early in the season.....)

However, if you look at the odds assigned by HRFan (also random and not touched by Laurie) you can see that they are also reflective to the weight assignment.  Black Vertigo went off the 3/5 ON favourite and annihilated the field by nearly 4 lengths - Zulu finished nearly 92 lengths behind (or in old money a distance).  So the winner was obviously considered by the program to be the vastly superior horse in the field and his result clearly proved it.

The program can see far more detailed specs on each horse than we can (even with PPs etc) so when running races there are many many more factors in play rather than kick, stamina, speed etc.

So what can be done to change the program to allow horses to run on their “correct” weights?

The simple answer is nothing.  

The complicated answer is threefold: 

1 - we scrap the existing program and get a custom built program

2 - we make races more restrictive on entries so we try to ensure that all horses run of the same weights

3 - players change their way of entering horses so that they “play” the system and make sure that they have a horse in a race that ensure that they run off a correct weight

Option 1 will never happen unless a very generous player stumps up $30,000 + to build a new race engine.  We would also have to stop racing for a season or longer to allow the data to be migrated or worse case wiped and we start PF from scratch.

Option 2 would not be a popular decision as its hard enough some weeks filling the races as they are let alone restricting them further.

Option 3 would be the most simple solution but it wouldnt solve the issues - just brush them under the carpet.

At the end of the day there is NOTHING that can be done to solve this easily so its something we all will have to live with until Option 1 becomes available!  You will only wind yourself (and others) up by continually banging on about this but it wont change - somethings are within the remit of Laurie to change (colours, names, tweaking uber horses) but this is not one of them.  

Somebody slap me!

Retaliation after Robin had the temerity to take my request seriously.

We've reached the point in this season where I have begun to think seriously about managing my stall situation for next year.

I have jettisoned off a few non-performers, sold a couple of beloved, but unneeded stallions, and have started a critical analysis of about a dozen other horses who are on the bubble, talent-wise.  At least six of them will have to get pink slips to get me where I need to be.

So why in the heck do I keep buying horses?!?

Recently I purchased the 2yo colt Retreat and 3yo filly Lake Excessive from Endless Vista.  Today I negotiated a deal with my friend Lise over at Eureka to acquire 3yo colt Qi (Union Jack x Flow Diagram).

The upshot is that these purchases are undoing all of the good work I've done so far with regard to opening stalls for upcoming foals.  It's not that I regret them.  I am especially happy with the Qi acquisition, but I do need to rein myself in.

Cold turkey baby!  No more purchases this year.  Those of you to whom I have sent offers that you have not acknowledged... consider them null and void.

Let sleeping ponies lie.......

Loosely related to my previous post, this time I want to cover the issue of rest. (Which has just been raised by a new stable on the forum)

Now for some stables, there is no such thing as too much rest for a horse and they only enter when the perfect race comes along (and even then with scratch conditions!) but for others having a horse sit in their stall for more than 5 days is seen as utter laziness on the horse’s part.

There is no golden rule about how much rest a horse needs as, like in RL, each need different levels.  Some are running machines and can churn out solid results week on week but others need handling with kid gloves and only like to have a visit to the track once a month.

Our stable operates on a preferred minimum rest period of 21 days between races (hence why we rarely have US TC contenders) but the odd runner does go out after 14 days if they had a relatively easy race prior.  Does this give us an edge?  Or does it work against us because we don’t aim to be top stable on the win %?

The honest answer is - no idea!  Over the last 5 years, our OTB (on the board ie 1st/2nd/3rd/4th position) finishing average has been over 50% and this year we are sitting on a 65% average with nearly 2/3rds of the season gone.  We also have a rule of thumb where each horse has no more than 12 races per season max (ie one every four game weeks) but a lightly raced horse will have a longer peak than another horse with a similar AR who is raced for example 20 times in a season. Thats a completely Bally Doyle theory and can probably be disproved but we have stuck to it for all our seasons playing and we are too old to change!

Some players will say that they work on a week on / week off rota for the horse no matter what whilst others work out months in advance a horse’s race schedule and stick to it regardless.  This can be done when the race schedule is published and made available as an excel sheet with filters for each option, from age to surface and all points inbetween.

Whilst each horse is just a set of numbers in a program, that program does allow for a “tired” horse to become sore or injured depending on their style/frequency of running.  Only the Steward (Laurie) who runs the races has any idea of whether a horse is in good condition to run but our scratch conditions (see previous week article) doesnt allow us to ask for them to be taken out according to their “physical” condition. (And its a long enough job to run the races for Laurie as it is without adding another scratch option!)

The program does however not allow a horse to be entered if it is considered “injured” or has already run that day.  There is nothing stopping an owner from entering a horse with one days rest - its happened but wouldnt be recommended.  Any stable trying to enter a horse with an injury will be charged the full entry fee (its in the rules!)

There are some stables that will send a horse out week after week after week to compete and have what they consider good results, ie finishing in the money without winning regularly.  Others prefer to enter horses when they have a better chance of bringing home the winners cheque.

At the end of the day its a totally personal choice and whilst we can all offer our own opinions, ideas and whether you are on the side of “there is no such thing as too much rest” or believe that a horse can only stay in your barn if they are out earning their corn every week is entirely your decision - so new stables, don’t feel pressured to follow anyone else.  Take the advice given but learn what works - each horse really is different!

As my good friend Steven Hawkings explained to me:

$=R/R(+S?I?), ie Money equals Race + Rest (plus option if Sore? Injured?)

(Well it could have been Eddie Redmayne always get them confused!)

RAPID FIRE random thoughts!

I sold Jackhammer to Smokey's Stable a couple days ago.  He is a supremely talented two-miler who was overshadowed in my stable by Le Chiffre.  His racing days are dwindling and there is no room for him as a stud.  He will certainly produce some distance foals for Chris in the future. 

Have you ever heard the song "I Wanna Be Where You Are" by the young Michael Jackson?  I hadn't heard it in years and now I'm stuck on it.  Here is a link.  song

I have a couple lightly raced 3yo's on the sales page as BUY NOW's for $1.  They are both worth a look, but I would pay particular attention to Give Me Danger.  He is a late-maturing type (age 3-4) and has steadily improved in his 3 races.

If you like board games, I suggest you watch the Table Top video series that is hosted by Wil Wheaton.  The videos are quite funny and interesting.  This link is for the game Shadows Over Camelot, which I recently purchased.  Check it out... game

I'm going to Mackinac Island (pronounced MACK-in-naw) in a couple weeks with a bunch of family members.  Ever been there?  It's an island in the straits between the Upper and Lower Peninsula in Michigan.  Very historic.  See for yourself... mackinac

I wish there were more 16F races.  The aforementioned Le Chiffre could probably compete well at 12F, but since he maxes out on stamina and kick, he really is better suited at 2 miles.  Unfortunately, that means he gets only about 8 starts per season and about half of them are GR2 races.  I'd like him to win an Eclipse for best older male, but even though he might go undefeated, he will certainly finish down the line earnings-wise.  He just doesn't get to race enough.

A tag line for my stable has always been "Superheroes of Racing".  In that regard, at the moment I've got 16 horses that were named after superheroes.  Since I'm a voracious reader, eight more were named after book or movie characters and objects.  Currently however, song titles are responsible for the most names in my stable with 17.  I need to get back to my roots so I suspect I'll have a rash of superhero names coming out next year...

You ever watch Bully Beatdown?  There is something deeply satisfying about this show.  Watch here.  beatdown

I'm dying to see what 2yo colt Tesseract can do, but because he has a Dislike on hard dirt and a Poor on hard turf, the guy has scratched in both of his career entries.  He's a front runner type with good acceleration, good speed, and he likes distance, which I didn't expect with Kostya x Domino.  I need a race where the going is bad!

Scratch the Itch!

Helping blue hen mare Case Closed itch her scratch!

In the early days of PF when entries were submitted by email, stables were allowed to put pretty much anything down as a scratch condition - ranging from SCRATCH IF NO to SCRATCH IF MORE THAN 4 RUNNERS so Laurie would have a nightmare running races trying to keep up with all the various requests.

So after a little debate and an executive decision, we went down to two options - SCRATCH IF NO or SCRATCH IF OK.  On the surface (pardon the pun!) that doesnt look like that much difference but that small nuance has scuppered many a potential champion.

If you start with each horse’s AR you can immediately see that choosing either OK or NO for a surface fussy horse could end up with a lightly raced animal taking up a stall that could be used for a sturdier beast.  Some horses also have extremes - disliking hard dirt but loving soft turf or vice versa which can make entries a nightmare.  

On the other hand you could simply ignore the scratch conditions and let the horse run no matter what - which could lead to major injury downtime. Its a much riskier option but can pay off if you are clever and play the entry system well by checking back at the last minute to see the other entries - if there are two entries and one has a scratch condition it could pay to enter another runner as worst case scenario you would finish 3rd for a potentially large purse (esp in French turf races which have a tendency to come up soft!)

What stables may not realise is that the track dislike can also refer to the track itself, so for example they run like donkeys at Churchill downs but set track records at Shendandoah Downs!  Nice on the CV but not so good if you want to aim for Triple Crowns or Breeders Cup.

Speaking personally, I have a horse called Baker Street and whilst he is no world beater he is a nice reliable runner.  This year for example he has had 5 runs and for 4 he rated as “OK” for Likes Track but posted PSRs of 100/89/98/98 for these with 1 win, 1 2nd and 2 4ths so if I had put in SCRATCH IF OK he would have been pulled out.  Three tracks were Fast with one Slow. In his most recent start though he rated “YES” to the track and came 2nd with a 104 PSR.  

Going back further, one of my best mares Case Closed  had terrible surface preferences but did set WR/TR with a NO! for tracks so its just a matter of being brave and taking the chance. Some stables have automatic pilot when it comes to entries and ALL their runners have scratch conditions but others just run regardless - its a personal choice! 

The moral here is to not only take into account whether a horse likes to splash through the mud or give the jockey a bone rattling ride on concrete, but check their records on particular tracks and leave off the scratch conditions for a few runs to test them out.

Stable Spotlight - Bevelle Farms

Bevelle Farms opened their doors on June 12th, 2012, and owner Savannah Schneider, better known as Vanna, has been an active and feisty participant ever since.

She operates a growing stable, currently with 36 stalls.  Negredo and the venerable Troll Tower stand as stallions.  Broodmares occupy another 9 stalls.

Understandably, Negredo is her favorite horse.  Winning the Kentucky Derby, Dubai World Cup, and Breeders Cup Classic would obviously endear him to any owner.  (I'm not sure, but I think that War Machine is the only other horse to have accomplished that feat.  Of course, War Machine added the Dubai Juvenile, Breeders Cup Juvenile, Preakness, and Belmont to his reign of terror.)

Negredo's domination, which included an Eclipse award, rank as her top PF accomplishments so far.

Vanna can be reached via PM as "Vanna" (her preference), and via email as vannaschneider@gmail.com.

Underused Sires

Here is the first clue to see if you can determine who will be the first underused sire profiled.

He is currently 11 years old.

Need another clue?

He won 14 Grade 1 races in his career.

Still need another clue?

He is currently the #24 overall ranked horse in PFSim history.

Sinking Fear has been at stud for 5 seasons and has yet to have a full book in any season.  11 foals was the most in a season but he has been averaging just a little over 9 foals per season.  His career earnings exceeded $12 million in earnings.

Sinking Fear was bred by History’s Own Stable and is currently owned by Olmo Dorato.

Sinking Fear is by Purple Passer out of Classy Lassy.  Purple Passer has bred 4 racers with more than $1 million in earnings.  Classy Lassy has 10 foals of which 3 went on to win more than $1 million.  

Sinking Fear raced only twice as a 2 year old without much success.  In his 7th race he picked up his first of 26 career wins.  14 of which were Grade 1 wins at distances of 11 to 13.5 furlongs.  In his 49 races he posted psr’s of 100+ 36 times.  13 times his psr’s were 110 or greater.  

Sinking Fear’s first crop of foals are currently 4 years old.  His first crop resulted in producing 10 foals.  Of those 10 foals 3 of them currently have winnings in excess of $1 million.

Sinking Fear has an incredible AR.  He prefers Hard Dirt, Soft Dirt, Hard Turf and Soft Turf.  His “worst” surface is mud which he is only rated “good”.  Pretty tough to find a flaw there.  

Weight carrying ability should not be a problem for his since he can carry 149 lbs.  Another way to look at it is he should be good to carry a jockey and a half.  

He is an excellent sire for those that are trying to breed for that 12 furlong distance.  

Regrets? I've had a few...

We've all made mistakes on horses.  Sometimes we act rashly.  Sometimes our judgement is clouded by a Jedi mind trick.  Sometimes we are just plain stupid.  

Luckily, I haven't had the grievous situation where I have given up on a young horse and watched them vault up to super-stardom, but I have made my share of mistakes.

On a few occasions I have given up on older horses and watched them forge on as productive racers. Crossbones and Stowaway immediately come to mind.  Incidentally, they should both be excellent studs and poor Stowaway resides at Endless Vista, having never sired a foal.

I have sold or traded a few broodmares that I wish I had kept.  At the top of that list is On The Prowl, who I coveted for years.  When Chris over at Smokey's consented to the deal whereby I finally acquired her as a broodmare, I was ecstatic.  However, she has just one foal at Otsego Farms (Hella Good by War Machine) before I fell under the spell of a young horse owned by Olmo Dorato and made the deal sending On The Prowl to Italy in exchange for Lapsus.

As far as other broodmares are concerned, I probably should have kept Shattered Record, and Nova as well, although I did acquire the fine Bally Doyle mare Champions Dream in the Nova deal.

Anyone else care to comment on a transaction or decision they made that they wish could be undone?

Hidden in plain sight...

I bred Nebula.  I raced her.  I retired her.  I've used her as a broodmare.  But, this horse has just been an afterthought for me for years.  I've considered selling her on many occasions.

She was sired by the great Dubai Gold out of the speedy sprinter/miler Nova and I had high hopes for her as a racer.  She never really panned out, though she was very steady.  She failed to produce a check only 4 times in 23 career races.

Somehow, as I shuffled through racers and broodmares, she kept slipping through the cracks and maintained her stall.  Only now, as I see her first two offspring begin to prosper, am I beginning to appreciate her quiet quality.

Her first foal, 3yo Kid Shelleen (War Machine) is very talented.  He has not broken his maiden yet, but he has finished 2nd in three straight races and looked very good in doing so.  His speed/stamina/kick ratings of 92-69-950 suggest future success.

In her second career start, Three Rings (Union Jack), the 2yo filly, displayed a  furious finishing rush that brought her from 9th to 2nd in the last two furlongs.  At the finish, it was a virtual dead heat, at track record speed, but the nod was given to the FDL colt Blistering Count.  Her numbers as a raw 2yo stand at 90-68-950 and could be very much like her older half-brothers when she matures.

Colts Moon Night (Nightwing) and Galactus (War Machine) are both standing in the wings for future racing.

And to think that I've taken this fine filly for granted for so long...

Is a fond farewell even possible?

I'm a sentimental guy.

If a horse puts in a great career, and has the necessary value, I'll make every reasonable attempt to keep that horse on board as a stallion or broodmare.  But right at the moment, my stallion situation is getting unwieldy.

I've got Nightwing, War Machine, Union Jack, Refractor, and Alphabet.  Plus, Methy Bus is waiting in the wings with a full book for the next breeding season.

For an 80-stall stable, six stallions seems excessive.  Wouldn't you say?

It gets even more complicated when you consider that Le Chiffre will certainly be pressed into service when he retires.  Battlestar and Jackhammer are both worthy as well, but there will not be room for the Dubai World Cup winner, nor the winner of the Melbourne Cup and Dubai Sheema Classic.

This logjam has me considering a radical change in my thinking.  Rather than expand my base of stallions to accommodate the newcomers, I may contract this aspect of my breeding program.

Looking at it realistically, and throwing out all sentimentality, how many stallions with 74 stamina do I need?  Nightwing, Refractor, Alphabet and Le Chiffre are pretty much the same horse, sire-wise.

Refractor was and incredible talent at 16F.  Just look at the times he churned out.  He had 18 starts at two miles and 11 of them were under 3:18, with a handful more at just over 3:18.  That really is spectacular.

As good as Alphabet and Nightwing were, neither had the unique talent of Refractor... although Alphabet comes close.  Le Chiffre is freakishly good, probably better than Refractor.

War Machine is also uniquely good, with a very rare combination of speed and stamina.  He'll always stay on as a stallion, even though his very short career span is a chink in his genetic armor.

Methy Bus is also gonna stick on for a while due to his particular strengths.  He's an 88/73 type with a long career and he churned out 100+ PSR's in 37 of 56 races. 

So, when the dust settles, it looks like Nightwing and Alphabet will be the odd men out.  At this moment, both have very small books for next breeding season.  If I sell them, the new owner would have to honor those.

It kinda hurts to even consider letting Nightwing go.  Sometimes it sucks being sentimental...

It's never too early...

	Olympia
Prince Charming
	Southern Charm

Breeding is still months away, but I've been thinking about pairings already and I think I have it all pretty much worked out.

In-house stallions Nightwing, Refractor, and Alphabet will breed with a single mare each, with Alphabet getting a crack at the super-productive mare In Spirit.

War Machine, Union Jack, and newcomer Methy Bus will have two mares apiece.  War Machine x Quake is a particularly exciting combo.  We love her speed, stamina, and on-lead racing tendencies matched with the Triple Crown Champion.

We also have three stallions lined up that we have never used; Olympia, Druido Supremo, and Capro Espiatorio.  Olympia will have the honor of breeding with Southern Charm, in a match we really like.  Capro and stable favorite House of M will pair up, as will Druido Supremo and Dream d'Oro.

The hardest part of this process will be culling the herd enough to make space for the incoming 12 foals.  Some tough decisions will be made...

PS - I've got dibs on the name Prince Charming.

Another interesting factoid...

I can't believe that I didn't know this already...

Infinity World won the Aoba Sho a couple weeks ago.  As I was looking at the horse results today, with respect to records and PSR's after this weeks races, I noticed that Le Chiffre won the same race in 2018.

Interesting, I thought.  Otsego Farms has won that race two years in a row,

That prompted me to go to the race search and look up the historical results of the Aoba Sho.  I wondered who else might have won the race in the past.

Lo and behold!  I see that Otsego Farms also won the race two years ago.  I had completely forgotten that Zombieslayer took that honor as well in 2017.  So, we have won the race three consecutive years.

So, the question is... which of my horses will win it next year?  Too soon to tell...

Just thinking about the Japanese Derby...

I found it interesting that there were only 9 entries in this lucrative 3yo race.  Out of curiosity, I checked the field sizes for every season it has been run... 6, 4, 4, 8, 8, 7, 7, 9!  So, this is actually the largest field since the inaugural year.  That first race was won, by the way, by Nightwing's most prolific offspring, Daredevil.

I wonder why such a monstrously rewarding race has such small fields?  Well that is a topic for another time...

The 2019 field could actually be a little smaller because there are two horses entered who have little hope in this race.  

Astro Pop from Victorian Racing Stables is the better of the two by a wide margin, but still has no chance to hit the money in this race.  His stamina and kick are both very suspect, and based on his racing history, I wonder why his connections ever even considered throwing this entry fee right out the window, because that is exactly what they did.

But as bad as that decision was, Spartan Racing Stables takes the cake with the Tiny Monsters entry.  This horse has a 99.9% probability of coming in last place and if that doesn't happen, I will be dumbfounded.  He would be lucky to make 8F with dignity, let alone 12F.  He finished last in the 12.5F Victoria Derby and was almost 100 lengths off the lead.  Pure folly and Ryan knows that...

Hong Kong from  Port Pirie, Shadow Walker from Foxies Lodge, and Pendfold's Vocal Enforcer are all perfectly reasonable entries, but I see them finishing in the middle of the pack, with Vocal Enforcer being at the bottom of the three.

The winner will come from this group:

• Atonement - Snowbank
• Infinity World - Otsego Farms
• Luminare - Olmo Dorato
• Overdue - FDL Lodge

The filly, Overdue, is riding a 4-race winning streak, and the last one was at 12F in the Japanese Oaks.  She is the fastest horse in this race, but I still wonder about her ability to do 12F against the colts.  For that reason, I suspect she won't win, but I do expect her to be very competitive.  If one of the four listed above were to fall out of contention, I would guess it would be Overdue, at the hands of Shadow Walker.

Atonement is scary because of his enormous stamina rating.  If he gets a clean run, he could easily win this race.

Infinity World has a nice mix of stayer-type speed and stamina.  He is a notoriously slow starter, but there are only a couple horses that have more speed, and neither is optimal at 12F.

Luminare is very similar to Infinity World in ability.  They met at the Aoba Sho a month ago and the Otsego colt won by 2.4L.  Vocal Enforcer finished 3rd in that race.

I'm not going to make a prediction in this race other than to say that Atonement, Infinity World, and Luminare will finish in the top 3.  Overdue and Shadow Walker would be my top two choices to crack that group if the trip so dictates.

Good luck to all.

Stable Spotlight - Alydar Stables

Richard Childers has been in operation since the 2004 season, making him another seasoned Photo Finish veteran.

Alydar is a 126-stall stable with 4 standing stallions and 27 broodmares.  Richard mentioned his mare Tora Tora Tora as his sentimental favorite due to the fact that she was one of his original 5 horses and was the main cornerstone of his stable.  

His top accomplishment was "finally" winning a Breeders Cup race.   Frequency won the BC Distaff in 2016 (beating my mare House of M in the process, I might add).

Richard can be reached at rlcalydar@msn.com or via the PF messenger as Alydar.

Stable update...

Simply Charming, 3yo filly, is quickly becoming a stable favorite.  It's no wonder... winning has that effect on people.

When she won the Carlos Salazar Stakes this weekend, it was her 6th consecutive win, prompting Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber to comment, "I haven't checked the records, but I think that is the longest winning streak since War Machine won 12 in a row."

But, while War Machine was doing it in races like the Breeders Cup Juvenile, Dubai World Cup, Kentucky Derby, and Breeders Cup Classic, Simply Charming has been winning modest ungraded stakes races.

Webber recently stated "We've been meaning to step her up a bit, but she just keeps winning these races and we haven't wanted to jinx anything."

Stable insiders confided that Simply Charming may not have the necessary skills to compete at GR1 or GR2 races.

In other stable news, veteran Methy Bus may have run his last race.  Trainers report that, at age 8, his abilities are finally starting to erode to the point where he may not be competitive in the types of races he is accustomed to running.  Also, 6yo Acquarella is reaching the end of the line with Otsego Farms and will be put on the sales page very soon.

Battlestar, the talented but surface-picky male, is in his last season at our stable as well.  He will not stay on as a stallion, so we are willing to send him to another stable either now or at the end of the year.

Incoming broodmares

Potential broodmares are very pricey these days.  

The Sweeney, a well-bred, but unheralded 3YO filly from Bally Doyle, was recently sold at auction for over $2,000,000.  I've looked at the horses numbers and they are very solid.  Solid enough that I considered bidding on her myself.  Only two things stopped me, the price got too high, and I will never own a horse whose name starts with "The".

For those of us who don't have the resources, or the desire to spend millions on mares, there is a great alternative.  At Endless Vista, there are a multitude of potential broodmares just waiting to be plucked up at the bargain basement price of $10,000.  Otsego Farms purchased two just yesterday.

Yes, you do have to dig a little because there are quite a few to slog through and many of them aren't worth the time or trouble, but you gotta kiss a few frogs to find that prince (or princess, in this case), right?

I picked up 6YO's Firefox and Smart Goer.  Firefox had just a decent racing career and Smart Goer was winless in six career starts, but I didn't buy them because of their records.  They came on board because they can both produce Classic or better offspring with good kick ratings.  Firefox looks like she would be a sweet match with War Machine, and Smart Goer will head to one of the distance boys.  That puts me back at 12 broodmares, exactly where I want to be.

I have had my eye on these two for weeks.  I didn't think they would be on anyone's radar, but I was nervous while I waited to make space to accommodate them.  The recent sale of four veteran horses to Elite give me the room to finally pull the trigger.

Anyway... don't forget Endless Vista.  It is a viable alternative versus spending the big dollars necessary for acquiring broodmares via auction.

For The Love Of Numbers

Hi, my name is Doug, and I have numerophilia. Okay, so I'm not sure that's an actual word...and my spell checker is pretty adamant that it isn't an actual word. Then again, I found it in an online dictionary. As everyone knows, they can't put something on the internet if it isn't true. Right?

Anyway, I'm going to go with it. I have numerophilia. That makes me a numerophiliac. No, I said NUMERO, not the other one. A love of numbers, not of dead things. That's how nasty rumors get started.