Quick Hits

There is great satisfaction in looking at my stable and seeing the broodmares Promised Land, Southern Charm, and Memorabilia at the top of the list.

I'm a little nervous about Le Chiffre's race this weekend.  His numbers dipped radically in his final race of 2019 and I attributed it to shortish rest.  His AR states that he will have a long peak, so I figured he'd be good to go as a 5yo, but that stamina drop to 72 in his last race has spooked me.

I noticed that I have two 4yo colts, Helikaon and Rico Suave, that have never been out of the money in their careers.  Rico finished 2nd in both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont last year.

My current crop of 3yo's are looking to be a rather pedestrian bunch... with the exception of Tag You're It, who I cannot take credit for because I didn't breed him.  He was bred by Laurabelle and donated as a prize to the Pick Winners contest a couple seasons ago.

Battlestar is racing this weekend, so we'll see if there is anything left in the tank as a 6yo.  He had three wins last year and was pretty consistently over 100 PSR's.  His "average" peak though put him at risk of a precipitous falloff in ability.

Spaceman from JD Kayll Race Club is running this weekend as a 9yo!  I've been wondering for the past couple years when this guy was gonna retire, but one look at his record explain why Josh keeps racing him.  He's making money!

Only 5 horses in the $1.8M February Stakes?  And two of them from Absinthe.  Seems like a high profile race like that would have attracted a little more interest.  I wanted to throw in one of my girls but it would have been a waste of money since I do not have a miler who can compete with the likes of Elvira or Overdue.

I really like 4yo Simply Charming.  She is not overly blessed with raw ability, but she seems to have a real knack for being competitive.  Her record now is 16-9-2-3.  I'd like to keep her on after she retires but I really don't have the need for a sprinter/miler type.  

Tesseract has the ability to be a Kentucky Derby horse, but his surface pickiness is really hampering my plans.  He is a scratch machine!  I doubt he'll qualify because I can't get the bugger to run.

Broodmare quality improvement

I have always been on the lookout for quality broodmares.  But as we all know, good ones are very expensive and very difficult to obtain.  That's because everyone else is also on the lookout for quality broodmares... which makes the availability of Promised Land and Memorabilia all the more surprising.

Promised Land was used as a broodmare in 2020, and then was summarily dismissed to Endless Vista.  Memorabilia was sent to Endless Vista with the dissolution of Hopeful Farm, then inexplicably ignored during the EOY Auction.

I was able to pick these two gems up for $100,000 apiece to augment my breeding operation.

It's true that Promised Land, at age 19, has only one season left in the breeding shed.  But I have wanted her for as long as I can remember, so I could not pass up the opportunity to own her, even if it is only for one year.  My plan is to pair her with Nightwing (if I can pry a spot from Smokey) to try to recreate another Daredevil.  

Memorabilia, at age 16, has a few productive years left, and will certainly be a mainstay in my band of broodmares until her retirement.

Now, these two newcomers, along with Southern Charm, Enlightenment, House of M, In Spirit, Champions Dream, and Quake, give me a rather spiffy bunch of gals.

Alas... if only Promised Land was just 10 or 12...

Fun With Numbers: And They're Off!

We've finally made it. It's the eve of the start to the 2020 racing season. In celebration of this national holiday (Okay, it isn't really a national holiday, but c'mon, shouldn't it be?), I figured that I'd take a look at the races. The Fun With Numbers way.

Big brother is watching...

I hate anonymous comments.  If you have something snarky to say, then at least have the balls to attach your name to it.

I've installed comment moderation on the blog.  So... anonymous comments will not happen any more.

Hopefully, this will not inhibit constructive comments, be they positive or critical.

How Much Is That AR Worth???

There has been a lot of discussion about how much value to place on an AR in determining how valuable or how well a horse will race.  This brief article will show you how I use the AR along with other numbers in determining what to do with a horse.

This is not meant as an advertisement in any way for a filly I have on the sales page.  Read the entire article please.

Zeldas Folly (2019), 16 hand bay filly

By Gravedigger out of Annibynnol Meth by A. P. Indy

This horse has average speed.

Zelda’s Folly has average speed.  That means her top speed will be between 88 and 90.  Tolerable on the top end but not much to speak about on the lower end.  Her parents speed was 89 and 90.  So the average speed is in line with what would be expected. 

We have no real way on knowing what her stamina is based on her AR.  Her parent’s stamina was 72 and 69.  So somewhere in there would be expected unless there was a random number.

The best possible numbers with average speed would be 90-72.  This number would be changed because it is over the 161 threshold.  It would be changed to 90-71 if it were a colt.  This example is a filly so her max stamina would be 70.  Her best possible numbers would be 90-70.  Not great but with proper placing could be workable. 

Here is a list of her possible top speed and stamina numbers.  90-70 (18% chance), 90-69 (9% chance), 89-70 (36% chance) and 89-69 (18% chance).  Her stamina number could be lower if it was a random lower number.  The last 3 combinations would be very difficult to work with for competing in the higher levels.  I believe the 90-70 combination has only about a 18% chance of happening.  This is why I placed her on the sales page. 

Wausau (2020), 15.3 hand bay filly

By Footloose out of Elusive State by A Bus

This horse has good speed. Could set records.

Wausau is a much better combination.  Her parents top speed was matched at 91 and their stamina’s were matched at 70.  With her AR stating she has good speed I know her speed will be 91 or better.  

We still do not know about the stamina number but with her parents matched at 70 that is a good bet.  If her speed is better than 92 then her stamina would be adjusted downward.  I believe she has an 81% chance of being a 91-70 when she matures on the track. 

Hope this helps in showing how an AR can be used to determining value of a PFSim horse.  

Top Speed and Stamina Stats

While working on some stats for the distance / kick article, I looked up all the winners of races that had purses of $1,000,000 or more.  From this list I grouped them into similar distances to see what ratings the horses had that were taking home the top prizes.  I did eliminate the 2 year olds because of potential maturity issues and fillies only races because of the stamina cap.

Sprinters (7.5 furlongs or less)

In the 4 races, 3 of them had top speed of 94 with stamina rating of 67. 

There was one with 91 speed and 69 stamina.

Milers and Short Routes (8 to 9.5 furlongs)

This group had 2 with top speed of 92 and stamina of 69. 

It also had 7 that had a top speed of 91.  Of that 7, 5 had stamina of 70 and 2 had stamina of 69.

There were 4 that had top speed of 90 and stamina of 71.

Derby Distance (10 furlongs and one 10.5 furlong)

This group had the least distance difference but the widest rating range.

There were 3 with the fastest top speed was 91 with stamina of 70. 

There was 3 that had top speed of 90 and stamina of 71. 

Two with top speed of 88 and stamina of 73.

There were also 2 with top speed of 87 and stamina of 74. 

Distance (12 furlongs and longer)

This group had mainly 3 top speeds represented. 

There were 3 with top speeds of 89 and stamina of 72. 

5 had top speeds of 88 and stamina of 73.

6 had top speeds of 87 and stamina of 74 (5 of these were winners at 12 furlongs). 

One had top speed of 91 and stamina of 70 (restricted race for 3 year olds only)

"Lots of distance"

This actually started out as a response in the comments section of a previous article. Then, I started typing and figured that it might be better if I made it a post. Wasn't sure if there's a limit to how much you can put in a comment, and I can tend to go on a bit when I'm on a subject. So, here we are with a reply in the comment section that turned into a blog post of a sort.

Sprinter, Miler, Classic or Distance???

This horse appears to be a sprinter.

This horse appears to be primarily a miler.

This horse looks like it can run at classic distances.

This horse likes a lot of distance.

I believe that these are the most troublesome lines on the AR.  To try to help determine what those lines mean I started to look at the player stallions and their AR’s.  I chose the player stallions because of the access to the stallion AR's and was hoping that as players we kept the best stallions in the game.  

There are currently 172 player stallions that have the line that states whether they are going to be a sprinter, miler, classic or distance horse. 

I then looked at what is referred to as the “kick rating” for all those stallions to try to see if there was any relation.  These are the numbers I found. 

The average kick rating for the 172 stallions was 818.

Stallions with the sprinter classification had kick ratings from 458 – 700.

Stallions with the miler classification had kick ratings from 562-722.

Stallions with the classic classification had kick ratings from 658 – 928.

Stallions with the distance classification had kick ratings from 724 – 1250.

Since there were overlapping numbers between classifications I looked at how many stallions were in each classification.

There were 14 sprinters (8.1%), 32 milers (18.6%), classic 56 (32.6%) and distance 70 (40.7%).

I then looked at the stallion’s stamina number to see if there was any relation to the distance tag.

Here is the breakout for stallions with the different stamina ratings.

66 – 0 sprint, 0 miler, 0 classic, 1 distance

67 – 11 sprint, 2 milers, 4 classic, 3 distance

68 – 0 sprint, 6 milers, 3 classic, 5 distance

69 – 1 sprint, 7 milers, 5 classic, 6 distance

70 – 2 sprint, 3 milers, 9 classic, 7 distance

71 – 0 sprint, 7 milers, 13 classic, 16 distance

72 – 0 sprint, 5 milers, 9 classic, 11 distance

73 – 0 sprint, 1 miler, 7 classic, 9 distance

74 – 0 sprint, 1 miler, 7 classic, 12 distance

With the likes lots of distance line showing up in all the stamina numbers, I then wondered what effect the kick rating had on the outcome of races.  So I then looked at all the horses that were winners in purses of $1,000,000 or more.   The average kick rating of those 41 horses that were winners in purses over $1,000,000 was 881.  When the horses were eliminated that won races shorter than 8 furlongs, the average kick jumped to 914.

12 were distance only classification.

23 could be in either distance or classic classifications.

3 could be in classic or miler classifications.

1 could be in classic, miler or sprint classification.

2 could be in miler or sprint classification.

None were sprint only classification.

Based on those numbers I believe that the “distance” line is more of a way determining which horses will do better versus top competition.    

I know this is only one piece of the puzzle on what makes a horse successful but I will be paying more attention to this rating when purchasing or selecting horses to keep.

Legit shot at Derby contention...

I'm very happy to own a horse that I feel has a great shot at making the field for the Kentucky Derby.

Tag You're It is a huge chestnut colt by Take A Gander out of Status Tower.  TAG, of course, finished 3rd in the 2007 Kentucky Derby behind legends Pegasus Song and Lazy Loper.

In deference to his illustrious sire, Otsego trainers have taken to calling our colt Tag as well, and he certainly seems to be a chip off the old block.  At the end of 2019, his record was 5-2-1-1 with a string of three consecutive 100+ PSR's.  

He is extremely comfortable on dirt, and has the stamina for 12F, so it is felt that he can contend not just for the Derby and Preakness, but for the Belmont as well.  Of course, the first step is qualification, so he will undoubtedly be managed as carefully as possible in 2020 to ensure a berth in the Derby.

When asked about this colt's chances to gain a invitation to the KYD, Otsego owner Jim Webber was cautious, "We're gonna do our best to put him in a position to qualify, but sometimes things go wrong."  

Of course, with that comment, Webber was referring to the failure of Helikaon, a highly touted 3yo last year, to make the Derby cut.

In response to a question about other 3yo's that may pose an obstacle to Tag You're It, Webber said, "There are a lot of horses that concern me.  The first one that comes to mind though, is the Snowbank colt Graverobber.  We beat him in the Futurity and he got us in the Juvenile.  I'm sure our paths will cross again though."

Fun With Numbers: Fastest of the fast

As some of you may know, I'm a bit of a numbers guys. I've always been intrigued by them. Like messing around with them. Keep track of them. Compare them. As my daughter and girlfriend tell me, I'm weird. A dork. They're probably on to something. Anyway, I have this ridiculously large amount of Photo Finish related spreadsheets that I'm always fiddling with. I enjoy working with Excel spreadsheets. My daughter says this makes me REALLY weird. Oh well, if I can manage to bring myself to put fingers to keyboard on a semi-regular basis, we can possibly have some fun with my weirdness.

Oh hello! Nice to meet you. And you are.....?

I've got 16 two-year-olds who will be hitting the track this year and they are virtual strangers.  I was just checking them out and it's as if I'm looking at them for the first time.

When they were born, I poured over their AR's again and again, looking for strengths and weaknesses.  Slowly, the realization sunk in that it would be two seasons before they became relevant, so they slipped back into obscurity.

Now, on the cusp of a new racing season, they have sprung back to the forefront as a new source of possible excitement and potential disappointments.  Recently, I have spent a little time perusing those AR's, trying to re-familiarize myself with these horses... as I'm sure you are all doing.

The ones that jump out at me are:

Come What May - (Hepatic Flap x Nova)  I was expecting a sprinter/miler, but this colt appears to have more stamina.  However, he does have all the traits of a speed horse, so he may very well trend down to 8F if his stamina rating dips below 70.

Maleficent - (Union Jack x Ticket to Dance)  This filly will be a prototypical come-from-behind type, which is always a risky proposition.  However, she is born of two prodigious producers of Excellent stamina offspring, so I expect her to be a premier female 2-miler.

No Tears - (A Bus x Ace Of Grace)  His AR is eerily reminiscent of his sire's.  That alone is enough to generate optimism.  I expect him to be a dandy 12F horse, but perhaps just a bit under-powered to be elite at 16F.

Aha! Here they are!

Welcome to all new stables and hello to all old friends!

Here we are on the cusp of another Photo Finish racing season.  DJ's recent article and the arrival of my foals have awakened me from my long slumber, so it is time to dust off my spreadsheets and take a look at the situation for 2020.

Otsego Farms had one of it's most successful seasons in 2019, finishing 4th in earnings with $18.1M.  However, most of my top earners are getting on in years and I do not anticipate a repeat of the fabulous record of last year, which was spearheaded by an outstanding group of 3yo's.

My 3yo's this year are a mostly mediocre group.  There are a couple bright spots however.  Colts Tag You're It and Hella Good are both going to be on the Kentucky Derby trail, with Tag being the more likely to qualify.  Tesseract is also a talented colt, but his extreme surface sensitivity makes him unlikely to mount a serious challenge for the Derby.  The rest of my 3yo's have shown little to nothing thus far and may not make it through the season without significant improvement.

Of course, the entire 2yo batch is a mystery.  I like the look of a couple of the foals, but at this point the AR is all we have to go on, and as we all know, those can be misleading.

Let's race!

Well, hello Mr. Fancy Pants!

Since the new foals have hit the ground and reports are in the air that the new racing schedule is being worked upon, I figured that I'd fish out the keys to the site and see if they still fit in the lock. Awesome! Jim hasn't changed the locks on me...yet. Once everyone gets back into the swing of things, hopefully, the Insider starts bustling with activity. To kick things off, I'd like to introduce everyone to the first reported foal from new Otsego Farms stallion, Methy Bus. Say hello to Mr. Fancy Pants!

Mr. Fancy Pants (2020), 16.1 hand white colt By Methy Bus out of Brilliant Dancer by Brilliant
This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will enjoy a very long peak performance time, perhaps its entire racing career.
This horse is ok on hard dirt.
This horse is ok on soft dirt.
This horse is poor in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse prefers soft turf.
This horse is of average soundness.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse always comes from midpack.
This horse has good acceleration.
This horse breaks well out of the gate.
This horse has average speed.
This horse likes a lot of distance.

 I figure that I should start taking reservations now for his first season at stud. Get in before his 2030 book fills up. Act now! Don't get shut out!

A rose by any other name….

As we approach the last 10 weeks of racing (or 5 real life weeks!), attention is starting to shift from racing to breeding (not forgetting the End of Year Auction for those who didn’t make the grade on the track this year!)

For some this will see many many many hours spent pouring over databases,, analysing figures then inputting the data into highly sophisticated spreadsheets which will hopefully give them the data they want – ie which stallion/mare pairing will result in the next Frankel :)

Others will spend somewhat less time on this, using old fashioned methods such as if I put a 10f dirt mare with a 12f dirt stallion I should get a nice classic distance runner – so basically they are matching like with like.

And then you have the lastminute dot commers – who suddenly freak out at Week 52 realise they havent booked any stallions and just throw names into the spreadsheet and keep everything crossed that they don’t get a 2f dirt mudlark who matures at 6!

But they all have one thing in common – names. That’s right, no matter what method you use to breed your foals at the end of the day they must all race with a name!

In my first year I breed two foals – Skim the Hill and  Chaps Gal.  The first was a colt by Danehill out of Indian Skimmer so the name is reflective of the breeding.  Chaps Gal was a filly by High Chaparral out of Bosra Sham and again the names linked.

After that though as my breeding programme expanded so did my names (much to Laurie’s disgust/amusement in equal parts!).  In order to keep track of breeding upwards of 25 foals a year, I devised a system whereby I used a theme – for example one year I used songs by Duran Duran, another was films starring John Wayne – one of my more successful years was using Sherlock Holmes.  More recently I have taken inspiration from the books of Jane Austen (these are currently 2yr olds) and my last crop were named after Downton Abbey (both people and places).

Many other players do similar – some stick with movies (been there done that!), songs (copycats!), famous footballers (interesting especially as one is actually a filly!).  Some keep with the tradition of using the parents for inspiration.

With upwards of 600 foals born each year though, it is becoming increasingly difficult to use truly original names.  When submitting the breeding sheet to Laurie all foals are required to be named.  You can cheat and use the same name for both fillies and colts which is quite easy to do if you have to find 50+ names but I still like to try to keep them “sexed” so a filly will be a feminine version of the colts name, ie Mr or Mrs Bennet.

It would seem sensible that before submitting your sheet that names are checked to make sure that they are not already used – but this doesn’t always happen and results in a delay in producing the foals.  It takes miliseconds to check the database to see if the name is already used – but some still don’t take that time. The Stud Book also has an issue with apostrophes so when searching DON’T use it just put in the name up to the punctuation ie rather than Missy’s Bridle just put in MISSY.

There are also a few guidelines on the Rules page (see Chapter 9 Breeding) for spelling, length etc.  Within reason Laurie allows pretty much anything but historically anything racially offensive (not sure how A Rab got through but it raced for a few seasons before someone decided to take offense….), anything of an overtly sexual nature (Panty Liners didn’t make it!) and anything that when read aloud is just downright rude!! With players from all over the globe that can prove a challenge as what is OK in one country may be received totally different in another. 

Another little cheat is players putting an “s” at the end of a name already used or taking out a space, so if there is a horse in the database called High Hope there is nothing stopping you from calling your new foal HIGH HOPES but bearing in mind that when running the races they are done manually it could be the wrong horse is entered (its happened once or twice and then Laurie has to rename one of the horses to ensure it does happen again).  Same principle works for BATTLE SHIP which could be used as BATTLESHIP. 

At the end of the day there arent really that many rules for us as players to stick to when naming our precious foals but having a care for Laurie when she is entering races should be one of them :)  Its also fun to think that if you have a really unusual name to pronounce and that horse qualifies for the Breeders Cup, Laurie may well have to be calling it during our brilliant live BC Skypecast! (So wanted Semidemiquaver to get into the sprint!)

So good luck with your names this year and remember it doesn’t hurt to double triple check the Stud Book to see if that name you adore is already used :) You will be saving yourself and others valuable time by not having your pairing rejected!

As for me – what am I using this year – well that’s for me to know and you to find out :)

Concerns arise as 2020 season looms

The 2019 season has been very successful.  Especially gratifying was the emergence of a very strong crop of 3yo racers.  As the season wanes however, it is becoming increasingly apparent that my current batch of 2yo's will be found wanting.

I have managed just a single win out of the group.  The colt Hella Good (War Machine x On The Prowl) won the GR1 VRC Sires Produce Stakes and looked very good in the process.

Another colt, Tag You're It (Take A Gander x Status Tower), has performed well, with a current record of 2-0-1-1.  I picked up Tag as the prize for winning the Pick Winners Contest a while ago.  

Other than those two, it's been pretty bleak.  I won't go into the details, but I'm not seeing much that excites me.

Earlier this season, I sold off quite a few seasoned racers to make room for incoming foals.  With fewer veteran racers and the barren wasteland that is my 2yo string, I'm finding myself in a rather stark position for the remainder of the year and into 2020.

Of course I'll still have Le Chiffre, Helikaon, Infinity World, Kid Shelleen, Lapsus, Qi, Rico Suave, Simply Charming, and Scarlet Witch next season, so I'm not going to disappear into a black hole, but I am concerned nevertheless.

I wonder if I can squeeze another year out of Battlestar?

2019 Juddmonte International Stakes

This is a race with steeped tradition in the PF universe.  It has been won by such notables as Smart Money, A Bus, Malvern Hill, Jenny's My Gal, Camena's Thunder, Serengeti, Rogue Day, and Jake Sully.

 The 2019 field is on the small side with just six entries, with only two that could be considered headliners; the Bally Doyle colt Olympia and Penfold's Bene There, who finished second in this race last year.

Rounding out the field is Lucky Light from Chiquita, Na'vi from Elite, Qi from Otsego, and Cold Steel's Shi No Numa.

After a cursory review, I would rule out Shi No Numa as a serious contender.  Although he is the fastest horse in the race, he will not be completely comfortable at this distance.  My feeling is that he would be better at 9F.  This race at 10.5F will be a little out of his wheelhouse.

Next down is Lucky Light, who can make the distance, but is simply facing four other horses that are superior talent-wise.

Na'vi, who is a notoriously slow starter, will also finish out of the top three.  He should finish 4th in this race, but will not hit the board as he is also outmatched by the top three.

I should note that Shi No Numa and Lucky Light are both 3yo's who will enjoy at least a 9 lb weight advantage over the older horses.  I don't think this will be enough to get them on the board, but one or  possibly both may find a way to squeak past Na'vi in the final placings.

So, that leaves Bene There, Olympia, and Qi as the three who I feel will hit the board.

Bene There is a consistent racer and had a solid positive experience in this race last year, finishing 2nd behind Jake Sully.  This distance suits him well and he is well-rested.

Olympia is always a major threat although he is turning around very quickly for this race.  It was just 13 days ago when he finished 3rd in the Australian Cup.

Qi is really the wild card in this race.  He only has three career races, with a win his last time out at 10F in the Lexington Stakes.  The distance is in his comfort zone and as a 3yo, he will also benefit from a weight advantage.

PREDICTION:

1st: Qi

2nd: Bene There

3rd: Olympia

The short rest will hamper Olympia.  Bene There will take advantage of that to finish second.  Qi, with ample rest, a weight advantage, and better speed than both of the others, will prevail.

For your information...

Laurie mentioned that it would be nice if she received an email notification whenever new content was posted on this blog.

I thought that is a great idea, so I added the Follow by Email widget.  It is located at the top right hand corner.

I'm not exactly sure how it works.  It may send you a notice, or it may just send the whole article.  Laurie signed up, so this post will be a test.  So... if you're interested, sign up!

Underused Sires - 2nd Edition - Active Duty

Underused Sires – Second Edition

In looking for a stallion for my sprinter mares there are several stallions that get a lot of interest.  Run Missy Run, Deux Francais, Parisian Sheikh and Reining Money seem to get their fair share of broodmares.  So I started searching for a stallion that shows promise and has a significant amount of availability. 

I my search, I found a sprinting stallion that could run on everything but a rainy day.  Active Duty prefers Hard Dirt, Soft Dirt, Hard Turf and Soft Turf.  He is poor in mud though.  

Active Duty was bred and is owned by Snowbank Farms.

Active Duty is the only foal from the list stallion General Nediym.  Active Duty is out of the broodmare Diabla.  Diabla has 8 foals of racing age, 3 have become millionaires.  Diabla is the 2^nd oldest foal out of the great broodmare Demoness.  Demoness has 13 foals of racing age, 7 that have earned a million or more.  Regal Son with over 33 million in earnings is her best earning offspring. 

Active Duty won 13 races during his career.  He won 1 Grade 1 and 7 Grade 2 races.  He cashed checks of $100,000 or more 11 times during his career.  He won races from 5.5 to 7 furlongs.  He posted PSR’s of 110 and higher 12 times in his racing career.

This season will be his 3^rd season at stud.  In his first 2 years he has only seen 2 mares in his first breeding season and 5 in his second season. 

He is currently being advertised on the forum for a $10,000 stud fee.  At this writing he has plenty of availability.  Only 3 spots are currently reserved.  

Webber: "Otsego's best 3yo crop ever!"

Helikaon, Infinity World, Kid Shelleen, Lapsus, Rico Suave, Scarlet Witch, Simply Charming.   Together, they comprise the best 3yo crop I have ever had... by a wide margin.

Helikaon (12-5-1-5) is a classic-style racer who has never finished out of the money.  When his career is over, he will carry on as a stallion, filling the niche that War Machine currently fills.

Infinity World (13-3-2-2) has a little more distance in him than Helikaon and has proven to be a very consistent performer.  

Kid Shelleen (11-1-4-2) has better talent than is reflected in his record.  Just recently broke his maiden, and we expect nothing but good things from him going forward.

Lapsus (12-5-3-1) might be the best of the lot.  His PSR's are not as gaudy, but he appears to be a opportunistic, big-money winner with earnings of $1.2M in his last three races.

Rico Suave (10-3-4-1) is the distance stud.  Hasn't sprung for the big win yet, but finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Belmont.

Scarlet Witch (10-2-3-1) is a slow starter with a killer finishing kick.  Definitely will stay on as a broodmare when her racing career is over.

Simply Charming (12-8-1-1) has the eye-popping record.  Questions about her ability in higher graded races were answered with her win in the GR1 Test Stakes.  Upward and onward for her.

Five of the seven are home grown and their combined record is 80-27-18-13.  I'll take that.

Tipping the Scales

There has been a lot of chatter recently on the forum about the weighty matter of…. weights!

Several players have made big points and long winded statements on why they feel their horses have been unfairly burdened in races and that something needs to be done.

They seem to be under the impression that when running the races Laurie can change the weights to make them fair/realistic so that their horse can run with a weight allowance that they feel is correct based on their intimate knowledge of racing.

Whilst this topic does seem to be a fair challenge, there is absolutely nothing that can be done by Laurie when running the races to ensure that horses are allocated a correct weight. And not a chance that a new scratch will be added either! The weights are assigned by the HRFan program and anyone who has any working knowledge of this system will know that the creator was probably high on something when setting the weights algorithm!

There is something in the programming that knows the best horse for the race and 9 times out of 10 the highweight of the field will be the best horse in the race (you as an owner may not agree but its reading stats drilled down much further than we can understand)

It does allow fillies/mares to carry less than their male counterparts so in that instance it is reflective of what happens in the real racing world.  And generally it assigns less weight to younger horses although as the season progresses and horses “mature” the difference is mitigated.

This weeks racing throws up a nice example of what is “wrong” in the system - the winner, Black Vertigo, carried 126lbs (9 stone or 57kgs) which is a hefty weight for a 2yr old when considering that the only older horse in the race carried 101lbs (7st 21oz or 45.8kgs). Zulu must have thought he was in the paddock running with 98lbs (7stone or 44.5kgs).  (Not even going to go down the route if why a 2yr old is running over 10f that early in the season.....)

However, if you look at the odds assigned by HRFan (also random and not touched by Laurie) you can see that they are also reflective to the weight assignment.  Black Vertigo went off the 3/5 ON favourite and annihilated the field by nearly 4 lengths - Zulu finished nearly 92 lengths behind (or in old money a distance).  So the winner was obviously considered by the program to be the vastly superior horse in the field and his result clearly proved it.

The program can see far more detailed specs on each horse than we can (even with PPs etc) so when running races there are many many more factors in play rather than kick, stamina, speed etc.

So what can be done to change the program to allow horses to run on their “correct” weights?

The simple answer is nothing.  

The complicated answer is threefold: 

1 - we scrap the existing program and get a custom built program

2 - we make races more restrictive on entries so we try to ensure that all horses run of the same weights

3 - players change their way of entering horses so that they “play” the system and make sure that they have a horse in a race that ensure that they run off a correct weight

Option 1 will never happen unless a very generous player stumps up $30,000 + to build a new race engine.  We would also have to stop racing for a season or longer to allow the data to be migrated or worse case wiped and we start PF from scratch.

Option 2 would not be a popular decision as its hard enough some weeks filling the races as they are let alone restricting them further.

Option 3 would be the most simple solution but it wouldnt solve the issues - just brush them under the carpet.

At the end of the day there is NOTHING that can be done to solve this easily so its something we all will have to live with until Option 1 becomes available!  You will only wind yourself (and others) up by continually banging on about this but it wont change - somethings are within the remit of Laurie to change (colours, names, tweaking uber horses) but this is not one of them.