Stable expansion in my future?

I love the new stabling rule that Laurie enacted this season. As you know, foals can now share the stall with their mothers for the first year.

It allowed me to breed 4 new foals this season and not be forced to sell off 4 horses to make room. Very convenient.

Until next season that is. If I want to stay at Stable Size 3, I'll have to divest myself of a few horses by next year. That is something that I do not want to do.

I've got to keep my studs War Machine and Nightwing. Plus Big Easy will be joining their ranks next year as well.

Shattered Record and Monsoon will both stay on as broodmares. Additionally, Shadowcat will probably stay, or at minimum be replaced by another broodmare.

So that makes 6 spots taken by breeding stock. RUNNING TOTAL = 6

I'll keep all of my current foals and yearlings. That is 7 more spots. RUNNING TOTAL = 13

I have a current total of 21 stalls. I find that to be a comfortable figure for me. Not too small, but small enough to handle without being overtaxing. So that means barring expansion, I can only have 8 other horses.

I suspect that King of the Sea will be about done after this season. This will also be the last season for Doomsday. Neither one of those fellows is quite good enough to have a spot as an Otsego stud, so they will probably go later in the year.

Nova and Union Jack will definitely stay on next year as either racers or breeding stock. RUNNING TOTAL = 15

Kid Flash has shown enough to earn a spot in the future as well. RUNNING TOTAL = 16

That leaves six horses competing for 5 spots. Of the remaining horses, I'd say that Firefighter and Dragon Force are the most likely to be sold off. Of course, that could change depending on how they perform this year. So, I'll keep an undetermined 5 of the remaining 6. RUNNING TOTAL = 21

That would do it. But, I may just make it easy on myself and finally take the plunge to Stable Size 4.

Light week upcoming for us...

Weeks 5 & 6 will only see two Otsego horses. With quite a bit of activity last week and our commitment to adequate rest, most of our racers will stay in the barn.

King of the Sea will make his 2009 debut this week and Doomsday will get his second start. Everyone else will stay home.

I'd like to get another 2yo on the track but there are only two age appropriate races this week, and they are both for fillies. Dragon Flyer, our only 2yo filly, isn't ready to race yet and will not see the track until later this season, if at all.

Big Slick and Mister Fantastic will both get another few weeks of training because the next races for 2yo colts are in weeks 7 & 8 and they will not be entered. With no races for 2yo colts this week, the pent-up demand will be great and I'm sure both of the colt races in weeks 7 & 8 will have fields of 15-20.

Race Results for Weeks 3-4

Five racers hit the track this week. Among them were three of our stable stars, Union Jack, Nova, and Big Easy.

Union Jack, 4yo colt, was entered in the 10 furlong San Marcos Handicap. There was an 11 horse field including legends A Bus and Flow Diagram. Tactically, Union Jack ran a tremendous race. We feel that he probably would have beat any other horse on that day except A Bus, but he finished a solid second, about 2 lengths off the lead.

Nova, the mercurial 4yo filly, ran in the 6 furlong Palos Verdes Handicap. She was the co-favorite, along with Patchers from Bowen Lodge, at 5/2 odds. Privately, we felt it was a 2-horse race between Nova and Victory Dance from Goldolphin17. However, the race was won by Firstholme's Morning After in World Record time. Victory Dance finished second, edging Nova once again, who came in third. Nova was gaining at the end and seemed to have a significant amount of steam remaining at the finish. We have long thought that she may have the makings of a miler. Perhaps now, fully matured, she may stretch beyond 7 furlongs.

Our newcomer, the 5yo male Big Easy won his Otsego debut in the 7 furlong Memsie Stakes. He ran a nice race and held on at the wire to clip the 3yo Magic Waltz from Smokey's Stable. We are obviously very pleased with this performance.

Our 3yo colt, Kid Flash finished third in the 6 furlong Vain Stakes. The race was won by Handsome Problem from Hopeful Farm. It was a good effort by Kid Flash, but he was never in a position to win.

Night Thrasher, the 2yo son of Nightwing ran in his first race in the Snowflake Stakes, a 4 furlong dirt affair. It was a crowded field with 20 entries and Night Thrasher got off to a very slow start (a tendancy that we did anticipate). He did perform very well though, weaving his way through the crowd and showing some late speed, to finish 7th. With his propensity to break late, this race at 4 short furlongs was probably a mistake. We'll try him at 6 or 7 next time out. Play Nice at 10/1 from Port Pirie was the winner.

So, for the week, we were 5-1-1-2. Very satisfactory.

Broodmare profile - Shattered Record

Shattered Record won the last two races in her career.

And, with a record of 10-2-2-2 and over $400,000 in earnings last season, it looked like she probably had another successful season in her.

However, in light of the new rules that effectively eliminated the list mares, it was decided that Shattered Record would become our lead broodmare.

She has the blood of the great Secretariat flowing in her veins and it is apparent that she has talent when you study her AR:

Shattered Record, 16.3 hand blue roan filly
By Black Shatter out of Lady's Secret by Secretariat

This horse will mature at the average rate, probably will not peak until after the Derby.
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse will be near peak potential for the Derby.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse is good on soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse prefers soft turf.
This horse will fight tooth and nail if challenged at the wire.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse holds its position well in curves.
This horse doesn't do more work than it has to to win. Once it gets the lead, it eases up.
This horse isn't at all bothered by crowds and bumping.
This horse isn't very consistent.
This horse recovers fairly quickly between races.
This horse has average weight carrying capacity.
This horse usually comes from midpack.
This horse has good acceleration.
This horse comes out of the gate like a rocket! Hang on!
This horse has average speed.
Handles 5f to 1 1/2mi, best distance 1 1/4mi.

The only area where she was below average is consistency, and that wasn't a huge problem during her career. She finished up at 32-8-9-3 $1,206,175.

Her first offspring, Shatterstar, by Nightwing looks to be pretty solid all around. He inherited great stamina from his parents. We are considering War Machine as a match next season, although the name Vampirical has also come up as a potential good fit.

Regardless which high-profile stud we settle on, we are confident that Shattered Record will produce top quality foals in the future.

Rolling out the Big Guns

Union Jack, Nova, and Big Easy will all make their 2009 racing debut's this weekend.

I was hoping for a somewhat softer field in the Gr2 San Marcos Handicap for Union Jack. Facing Port Pirie's A Bus and Eureka's Flow Diagram in the opener is a very stern task indeed. However, UJ has to face those monsters eventually, so why not make it now? We expect him to acquit himself admirably.

Nova will run in the Gr2 Palos Verdes Handicap. We are looking for revenge against the 6yo mare from Goldolphin17, Victory Dance, who edged Nova by a head in the Breeders Cup Sprint last year.

Big Easy makes his Otsego Farms debut in the Gr2 Memsie Stakes. Our trainers say that BE is in fine condition and they expect a win in this race.

Obviously, we'd like a clean sweep in these three races. Given the quality of competition, that is probably unlikely. I do think that we will win at least two of these races though. I'll let you decide which ones those are.

Lady Katherine out until late March

The injury Lady Katherine sustained on January 10th will bar her from competitive racing for at least 8-10 weeks.

With about 1.5 furlongs remaining, she suffered what is known as a Grabbed Quarter. She was running second behind Silverstone of Moose Hollow when one of her rear hooves "grabbed" the front right hoof, resulting in torn skin and tissue.

It will be about 3 weeks to heal. That will be followed by a week of paddock exercise. Then another 4-6 weeks of training will be required to get her back into racing shape.

Race Results for Weeks 1-2

Otsego Farms had just three entries in the first weekend of racing.

The 3yo colt Firefighter entered in the Grade 3 Spectacular Bid Stakes. He has not raced since mid-August and has trained well, so we expected him to have a favorable showing.

Doomsday, 5yo male, entered the 6F Gr2 Premier Stakes. We wanted to enter him primarily in lower graded races this year, but decided to take a chance on this race and we were rewarded with a small field.

And Lady Katherine, our speedy 3yo filly, entered an ungraded Starter Allowance at Shenandoah Downs. She finished last season with a 6-1-1-1 record in low grade races. She'll step up in race class later this year, but we wanted to start slowly.

RESULTS:

The track was slightly off in the Spectacular Bid, so we decided to scratch Firefighter.

Doomsday started well and looked very fit while finishing 2nd in the Premier Stakes. He went off as the favortite with EVEN odds. With Imagine from Establos Del Castillo won by 2 lengths. All in all, a nice effort from Doomsday.

Tragically, Lady Katherine suffered a rather severe injury during her race. She was cruising comfortably and then pulled up and struggled home to cross the line 7th. She is being evaluated by our medical staff, but early reports indicate that she will miss at least 2 months of racing.

Just thinking aloud....

It's possible I am wrong in the following statement, but I don't think so.

I have never entered more than one horse in any single race.

But I have noticed a trend that seemingly becomes more pronounced every year. There appear to be more and more occasions of a stable entering two horses in a given race.

I suppose this is simply a function of established stables getting bigger and bigger. Those horses have to race somewhere, right?

And yet, I find it slightly disturbing on some level. I'm not really sure why.

In my early years at Photo-Finish, I can't recall ever noticing this phenomenon. I'm sure there was the odd race where a stable had two entries, but it was so infrequent that I never even noticed.

This week there are 27 races. There are a total of 15 occurrences where a stable has two entries in a single race. Glancing over the pre-race card you can't help but notice.

As the horse population continues to increase, will we soon see stables with three entries in a race? Four?

I don't have any suggestions, nor do I even know if suggestions are needed. I'm not even sure if it's a problem or ever will be.

All I know is that I noticed it and for some reason I'm not crazy about it.

Otsego Farms announce new foals

Four new foals have arrived at Otsego Farms. They are:

1. Tombstone - colt by Vampirical out of Shadowcat
2. Domino - filly by War Machine out of Sharp Cat
3. Sabretooth - colt by Predator out of Monsoon
4. Shatterstar - colt by Nightwing out of Shattered Record

The AR's look like this:

Tombstone (2009), 16 hand chestnut colt By Vampirical out of Shadowcat by The Wicked North

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse is good on hard dirt.
This horse prefers soft dirt.
This horse is ok in mud.
This horse is good on hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse is of average soundness.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse likes a lot of distance.
______________________________________________________________

Domino (2009), 15.3 hand chestnut filly By War Machine out of Sharp Cat by Storm Cat

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse prefers soft dirt.
This horse prefers mud.
This horse is ok on hard turf.
This horse is ok on soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse appears to be a sprinter.
______________________________________________________________

Sabretooth (2009), 15.2 hand brown colt By Predator out of Monsoon by Storm Cat

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse is good on hard dirt.
This horse is ok on soft dirt.
This horse dislikes mud.
This horse is ok on hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.
This horse likes a lot of distance.
______________________________________________________________

Shatterstar (2009), 16 hand light gray colt By Nightwing out of Shattered Record by Black Shatter

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will enjoy a very long peak performance time, perhaps its entire racing career.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse is ok on soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse prefers soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has a mind of its own and likes to run at its own pace.
This horse likes a lot of distance.
______________________________________________________________

First impressions:

• All four foals will be quick to mature. A positive for impatient trainers like me.
• War Machine produced a filly for me for the second straight year. This one looks a sprinter as opposed to the classic-distance loving Rogue from last year. Domino was the only filly in this years batch from War Machine.
  
• The other three foals all prefer alot of distance and have surface flexibility. Traits I was hoping for.
• I'm especially pleased with the Nightwing/Shattered Record colt. His lengthy peak performance, surface adaptability, and excellent stamina have us very excited.

Tough choice...Wins or Money?

What is more important? Getting a win, or getting a shot at a really big purse?

It is so very tempting to enter those big purse races, even if you think your horse may be overmatched. You see that $1,250,000 sitting out there and you start thinking that maybe your horse does have a chance, or maybe there will be a really small field.

I like to think that all of my horses are Grade One and Big Purse worthy. But realistically, that is not true.

In 2009, I'm going to make a concerted effort to accurately position my horses in races that are graded comensurate to their ability. I'm not going to be hypnotized by a large purse and get suckered into entering a race beyond my horses ability.

These are the race grades I see my top horses running at this year:

• Union Jack - Grade 1-2
• Nova - Grade 1-2
• Doomsday - Grade 3-4
• Big Easy - Grade 2
• King of the Sea - Grade 2
• Kid Flash - Grade 2-3
• Lady Katherine - Grade 2-3

Union Jack and Nova are both primarily Grade One horses but will run in a lower grade occasionally if a particular race fits into their schedule.

Big Easy and King of the Sea are both very dangerous horses but may be past their prime. Probably not headliners anymore but should do some damage in Grade Two races. They may see an occasional Grade One if the situation is right.

Kid Flash and Lady Katherine are still on the way up. I see them as Grade Two or Grade Three racers in 2009, but they may move up a notch or two depending on how they perform.

Doomsday still has some gas in his tank, but he is running strictly in lower-pursed races this year. He could be a terror in Grades Three and Four. I'm simply not going to throw him out there versus the top competitiors anymore because he's just not up to it.

So, I'm going for the wins in 2009. As I predicted in an earlier post, 20-25 wins this season in approximately 105 starts.

Appropriately graded races and plenty of rest. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Tracking your success

Recently, Penny of Darkwood Stable mentioned that she keeps a financial record of her horses so she can manage them better. A very good idea, especially for new stables.

I must admit however that I do not keep detailed financial records. Once you get to the point where money is not a real problem, it just gets tedious to keep track of every dollar.

I do keep careful records on my entries, surfaces, distances, and results. Listed below, you will see a snippet of a spreadsheet that I maintain every year. It lists every racer that I have and breaks down their season, race-by-race.

The first column shows the date and surface of the race, color coded to depict dirt or grass.

The second column shows the distance in furlongs and is also color coded to show the race results. Green is a win, Yellow is a place, Red is a show. No color indicates an off-the-board finish.

I use the third column to indicate if there was an injury or soreness.

The entire spreadsheet, which I obviously did not publish here due to space constraints, shows all of my racers with all the associated and compiled racing statistics. Many of you no doubt keep similar records. For those of you that do not, it is extremely helpful, and fun!

War Machine x Sharp Cat. On the way....

Excitement is reaching a fever pitch as we await the arrival of this highly anticipated foal.

The breeding with Sharp Cat was negotiated last season and we feel that we would have been hard pressed to find a better match for War Machine.

Sharp Cat's racing attributes looked like this:

• Optimum on hard or soft dirt
• Excellent in mud
• Didn't care for turf
• Preferred to run On Lead
• Excelled at 9-12 furlongs, but could run effectively up to 14 furlongs
• Consistent and durable

Ability-wise, she is a dead ringer for War Machine.

War Machine produced a dandy little filly by the name of Rogue, out of Dragon Flyer last breeding season. Names for this years foal will be:

• Ultron - colt
• Domino - filly

We'll obviously be happy with a strong, healthy colt or filly.

Optimism prevails, Chapter Two

A few posts ago, I explained why I was optimistic for 2009.

I feel that I have some depth and versatility which will translate into wins.

Well, I was looking at some statistics for my top 5 racers yesterday and what I found has strengthened my opinion that 2009 will be a very successful year.

My top 5 racers are:

• Doomsday 5yo male
• Big Easy 5yo male
• King of the Sea 4yo colt
• Union Jack 4yo colt
• Nova 4yo filly

Those five horses had a combined total of 53 races last season. Of the 53 races, 32 of them resulted in speed scores of over 100.

By horse, the ratio of 100+ speed scores to total races last season looked like this:

1. Nova 10/10
2. Union Jack 7/10
3. King of the Sea 6/12
4. Doomsday 5/11
5. Big Easy 4/10

Overall, that is a percentage of 60%.

I looked at all of the performances in the 2008 racing season and found that there were 1265 instances of 100+ speed scores out of a possible 5675 entries. That equates to 22%.

So, you can see why I am optimistic. My top 5 checked in with a 100+ speed score in 60% of their races last year as compared to a Photo Finish average of 22%. I love it when a plan comes together.

Incidentally, the average speed score last season was 80.5.

AR Superstar - Track disappointment?

To be fair, Firefighter is maturing slowly, so I don't want to be premature in calling him a disappointment.

On the other hand, this fellow has a very encouraging AR, which set a high bar on our expectations.

The dam, Rosa's Comment was not successful on the track, but the sire, Bellbuster, has a reputation for producing solid foals. That is what prompted us to acquire Firefighter at auction as a 2yo.

Upon receiving the AR after the acquisition, we were elated. He looked like a sure thing on paper. We were a little concerned about his immaturity, but figured that we were bound to see something positive on the track during his first racing season. After all, our former racer Predator matured extremely slowly and he still managed 6 wins as a 2yo in 2004.

Firefighter's first race in 2008 was a Starter Allowance at 4.5 furlongs. He finished 13th of 15 and had a speed score of 45. After a couple months off we tried him at 6 furlongs in the Sapling Stakes. He finished 5th of 6 with a speed score of 30. In both races, he finished over 25 lengths off the lead.

Those two disappointing runs were enough to show us that Firefighter just wasn't ready. We decided to take him off the racing circuit until he turned three.

Here is the AR:

Firefighter (2006), 15.3 hand golden chestnut colt
By Bellbuster out of Rosa's Comment by Editor's Note

This horse will mature at the average rate, probably will not peak until after the Derby.
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse will be immature at Derby time, likely overpowered by more mature horses.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse is good on soft dirt.
This horse dislikes mud.
This horse is ok on hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse doesn't like a stretch duel. May not fight to keep the lead at the wire.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.
This horse has average curve handling abilities.
This horse cruises once it has the lead.
This horse handles traffic ok.
This horse is very consistent, lives up to its potential most times.
This horse recovers fairly quickly between races.
This horse has average weight carrying capacity.
This horse stalks the pace.
This horse has good acceleration.
This horse breaks well out of the gate.
This horse has good speed. Could set records.
Handles 5f to 1 1/4mi.

We think that Firefighter has the tools to succeed and we eagerly await the racing season to see if the extra time and training has made a difference.