Big brother is watching...

I hate anonymous comments.  If you have something snarky to say, then at least have the balls to attach your name to it.

I've installed comment moderation on the blog.  So... anonymous comments will not happen any more.

Hopefully, this will not inhibit constructive comments, be they positive or critical.

How Much Is That AR Worth???

There has been a lot of discussion about how much value to place on an AR in determining how valuable or how well a horse will race.  This brief article will show you how I use the AR along with other numbers in determining what to do with a horse.

This is not meant as an advertisement in any way for a filly I have on the sales page.  Read the entire article please.

Zeldas Folly (2019), 16 hand bay filly

By Gravedigger out of Annibynnol Meth by A. P. Indy

This horse has average speed.

Zelda’s Folly has average speed.  That means her top speed will be between 88 and 90.  Tolerable on the top end but not much to speak about on the lower end.  Her parents speed was 89 and 90.  So the average speed is in line with what would be expected. 

We have no real way on knowing what her stamina is based on her AR.  Her parent’s stamina was 72 and 69.  So somewhere in there would be expected unless there was a random number.

The best possible numbers with average speed would be 90-72.  This number would be changed because it is over the 161 threshold.  It would be changed to 90-71 if it were a colt.  This example is a filly so her max stamina would be 70.  Her best possible numbers would be 90-70.  Not great but with proper placing could be workable. 

Here is a list of her possible top speed and stamina numbers.  90-70 (18% chance), 90-69 (9% chance), 89-70 (36% chance) and 89-69 (18% chance).  Her stamina number could be lower if it was a random lower number.  The last 3 combinations would be very difficult to work with for competing in the higher levels.  I believe the 90-70 combination has only about a 18% chance of happening.  This is why I placed her on the sales page. 

Wausau (2020), 15.3 hand bay filly

By Footloose out of Elusive State by A Bus

This horse has good speed. Could set records.

Wausau is a much better combination.  Her parents top speed was matched at 91 and their stamina’s were matched at 70.  With her AR stating she has good speed I know her speed will be 91 or better.  

We still do not know about the stamina number but with her parents matched at 70 that is a good bet.  If her speed is better than 92 then her stamina would be adjusted downward.  I believe she has an 81% chance of being a 91-70 when she matures on the track. 

Hope this helps in showing how an AR can be used to determining value of a PFSim horse.  

Top Speed and Stamina Stats

While working on some stats for the distance / kick article, I looked up all the winners of races that had purses of $1,000,000 or more.  From this list I grouped them into similar distances to see what ratings the horses had that were taking home the top prizes.  I did eliminate the 2 year olds because of potential maturity issues and fillies only races because of the stamina cap.

Sprinters (7.5 furlongs or less)

In the 4 races, 3 of them had top speed of 94 with stamina rating of 67. 

There was one with 91 speed and 69 stamina.

Milers and Short Routes (8 to 9.5 furlongs)

This group had 2 with top speed of 92 and stamina of 69. 

It also had 7 that had a top speed of 91.  Of that 7, 5 had stamina of 70 and 2 had stamina of 69.

There were 4 that had top speed of 90 and stamina of 71.

Derby Distance (10 furlongs and one 10.5 furlong)

This group had the least distance difference but the widest rating range.

There were 3 with the fastest top speed was 91 with stamina of 70. 

There was 3 that had top speed of 90 and stamina of 71. 

Two with top speed of 88 and stamina of 73.

There were also 2 with top speed of 87 and stamina of 74. 

Distance (12 furlongs and longer)

This group had mainly 3 top speeds represented. 

There were 3 with top speeds of 89 and stamina of 72. 

5 had top speeds of 88 and stamina of 73.

6 had top speeds of 87 and stamina of 74 (5 of these were winners at 12 furlongs). 

One had top speed of 91 and stamina of 70 (restricted race for 3 year olds only)

"Lots of distance"

This actually started out as a response in the comments section of a previous article. Then, I started typing and figured that it might be better if I made it a post. Wasn't sure if there's a limit to how much you can put in a comment, and I can tend to go on a bit when I'm on a subject. So, here we are with a reply in the comment section that turned into a blog post of a sort.

Sprinter, Miler, Classic or Distance???

This horse appears to be a sprinter.

This horse appears to be primarily a miler.

This horse looks like it can run at classic distances.

This horse likes a lot of distance.

I believe that these are the most troublesome lines on the AR.  To try to help determine what those lines mean I started to look at the player stallions and their AR’s.  I chose the player stallions because of the access to the stallion AR's and was hoping that as players we kept the best stallions in the game.  

There are currently 172 player stallions that have the line that states whether they are going to be a sprinter, miler, classic or distance horse. 

I then looked at what is referred to as the “kick rating” for all those stallions to try to see if there was any relation.  These are the numbers I found. 

The average kick rating for the 172 stallions was 818.

Stallions with the sprinter classification had kick ratings from 458 – 700.

Stallions with the miler classification had kick ratings from 562-722.

Stallions with the classic classification had kick ratings from 658 – 928.

Stallions with the distance classification had kick ratings from 724 – 1250.

Since there were overlapping numbers between classifications I looked at how many stallions were in each classification.

There were 14 sprinters (8.1%), 32 milers (18.6%), classic 56 (32.6%) and distance 70 (40.7%).

I then looked at the stallion’s stamina number to see if there was any relation to the distance tag.

Here is the breakout for stallions with the different stamina ratings.

66 – 0 sprint, 0 miler, 0 classic, 1 distance

67 – 11 sprint, 2 milers, 4 classic, 3 distance

68 – 0 sprint, 6 milers, 3 classic, 5 distance

69 – 1 sprint, 7 milers, 5 classic, 6 distance

70 – 2 sprint, 3 milers, 9 classic, 7 distance

71 – 0 sprint, 7 milers, 13 classic, 16 distance

72 – 0 sprint, 5 milers, 9 classic, 11 distance

73 – 0 sprint, 1 miler, 7 classic, 9 distance

74 – 0 sprint, 1 miler, 7 classic, 12 distance

With the likes lots of distance line showing up in all the stamina numbers, I then wondered what effect the kick rating had on the outcome of races.  So I then looked at all the horses that were winners in purses of $1,000,000 or more.   The average kick rating of those 41 horses that were winners in purses over $1,000,000 was 881.  When the horses were eliminated that won races shorter than 8 furlongs, the average kick jumped to 914.

12 were distance only classification.

23 could be in either distance or classic classifications.

3 could be in classic or miler classifications.

1 could be in classic, miler or sprint classification.

2 could be in miler or sprint classification.

None were sprint only classification.

Based on those numbers I believe that the “distance” line is more of a way determining which horses will do better versus top competition.    

I know this is only one piece of the puzzle on what makes a horse successful but I will be paying more attention to this rating when purchasing or selecting horses to keep.

Legit shot at Derby contention...

I'm very happy to own a horse that I feel has a great shot at making the field for the Kentucky Derby.

Tag You're It is a huge chestnut colt by Take A Gander out of Status Tower.  TAG, of course, finished 3rd in the 2007 Kentucky Derby behind legends Pegasus Song and Lazy Loper.

In deference to his illustrious sire, Otsego trainers have taken to calling our colt Tag as well, and he certainly seems to be a chip off the old block.  At the end of 2019, his record was 5-2-1-1 with a string of three consecutive 100+ PSR's.  

He is extremely comfortable on dirt, and has the stamina for 12F, so it is felt that he can contend not just for the Derby and Preakness, but for the Belmont as well.  Of course, the first step is qualification, so he will undoubtedly be managed as carefully as possible in 2020 to ensure a berth in the Derby.

When asked about this colt's chances to gain a invitation to the KYD, Otsego owner Jim Webber was cautious, "We're gonna do our best to put him in a position to qualify, but sometimes things go wrong."  

Of course, with that comment, Webber was referring to the failure of Helikaon, a highly touted 3yo last year, to make the Derby cut.

In response to a question about other 3yo's that may pose an obstacle to Tag You're It, Webber said, "There are a lot of horses that concern me.  The first one that comes to mind though, is the Snowbank colt Graverobber.  We beat him in the Futurity and he got us in the Juvenile.  I'm sure our paths will cross again though."

Fun With Numbers: Fastest of the fast

As some of you may know, I'm a bit of a numbers guys. I've always been intrigued by them. Like messing around with them. Keep track of them. Compare them. As my daughter and girlfriend tell me, I'm weird. A dork. They're probably on to something. Anyway, I have this ridiculously large amount of Photo Finish related spreadsheets that I'm always fiddling with. I enjoy working with Excel spreadsheets. My daughter says this makes me REALLY weird. Oh well, if I can manage to bring myself to put fingers to keyboard on a semi-regular basis, we can possibly have some fun with my weirdness.