Optimism prevails, Chapter Two

A few posts ago, I explained why I was optimistic for 2009.

I feel that I have some depth and versatility which will translate into wins.

Well, I was looking at some statistics for my top 5 racers yesterday and what I found has strengthened my opinion that 2009 will be a very successful year.

My top 5 racers are:

• Doomsday 5yo male
• Big Easy 5yo male
• King of the Sea 4yo colt
• Union Jack 4yo colt
• Nova 4yo filly

Those five horses had a combined total of 53 races last season. Of the 53 races, 32 of them resulted in speed scores of over 100.

By horse, the ratio of 100+ speed scores to total races last season looked like this:

1. Nova 10/10
2. Union Jack 7/10
3. King of the Sea 6/12
4. Doomsday 5/11
5. Big Easy 4/10

Overall, that is a percentage of 60%.

I looked at all of the performances in the 2008 racing season and found that there were 1265 instances of 100+ speed scores out of a possible 5675 entries. That equates to 22%.

So, you can see why I am optimistic. My top 5 checked in with a 100+ speed score in 60% of their races last year as compared to a Photo Finish average of 22%. I love it when a plan comes together.

Incidentally, the average speed score last season was 80.5.

AR Superstar - Track disappointment?

To be fair, Firefighter is maturing slowly, so I don't want to be premature in calling him a disappointment.

On the other hand, this fellow has a very encouraging AR, which set a high bar on our expectations.

The dam, Rosa's Comment was not successful on the track, but the sire, Bellbuster, has a reputation for producing solid foals. That is what prompted us to acquire Firefighter at auction as a 2yo.

Upon receiving the AR after the acquisition, we were elated. He looked like a sure thing on paper. We were a little concerned about his immaturity, but figured that we were bound to see something positive on the track during his first racing season. After all, our former racer Predator matured extremely slowly and he still managed 6 wins as a 2yo in 2004.

Firefighter's first race in 2008 was a Starter Allowance at 4.5 furlongs. He finished 13th of 15 and had a speed score of 45. After a couple months off we tried him at 6 furlongs in the Sapling Stakes. He finished 5th of 6 with a speed score of 30. In both races, he finished over 25 lengths off the lead.

Those two disappointing runs were enough to show us that Firefighter just wasn't ready. We decided to take him off the racing circuit until he turned three.

Here is the AR:

Firefighter (2006), 15.3 hand golden chestnut colt
By Bellbuster out of Rosa's Comment by Editor's Note

This horse will mature at the average rate, probably will not peak until after the Derby.
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse will be immature at Derby time, likely overpowered by more mature horses.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse is good on soft dirt.
This horse dislikes mud.
This horse is ok on hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse doesn't like a stretch duel. May not fight to keep the lead at the wire.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.
This horse has average curve handling abilities.
This horse cruises once it has the lead.
This horse handles traffic ok.
This horse is very consistent, lives up to its potential most times.
This horse recovers fairly quickly between races.
This horse has average weight carrying capacity.
This horse stalks the pace.
This horse has good acceleration.
This horse breaks well out of the gate.
This horse has good speed. Could set records.
Handles 5f to 1 1/4mi.

We think that Firefighter has the tools to succeed and we eagerly await the racing season to see if the extra time and training has made a difference.

Long or short. Pick your poison.

Union Jack has the lungs. Nova has the raw speed. This dynamic duo should wreak havoc on opposite ends of the racing spectrum next season.

Union Jack has progressed nicely over the past two seasons. He became a consistent threat at 10+ furlongs on turf last season, and was rewarded with an Eclipse nomination. His record in 2008 was 10-3-2-3 with earnings of $2,249,500. Seven of his 10 starts resulted in speed scores over 100.

In 2009, as a 4yo, he will be a mainstay in the lucrative Grade One 4+ turf races. Our stated goal for UJ is an Eclipse award for Male Turf Champion.

Nova had a superlative 2008. In 10 starts she compiled a record of 10-5-5-0 and lost a couple of the starts by a head, including the Breeders Cup Sprint. She earned $958,750. Her average speed score in 2008 was 109!

Now entering her prime, we expect nothing less than a Champion Sprinter Eclipse for Nova in 2009.

Turf at 10 plus. Dirt at 7 or less. We consider these races already won. Entering races against this pair of killers in 2009 will be like eating a poisonous toadstool.

Does size matter?

During recent physical inspections, our horses were all weighed and measured.

Here are the heights (in hands) of all horses ages 2 and up:

1. Nightwing 8yo male 17.2
2. Shattered Record 5yo mare 16.3
3. Kid Flash 3yo colt 16.1
4. Big Slick 2yo colt 16.1
5. Doomsday 5yo male 16.0
6. Nova 4yo filly 16.0
7. Lady Katherine 3yo filly 16.0
8. Dragon Force 2yo filly 16.0
9. Mister Fantastic 2yo colt 16.0
10. War Machine 6yo male 15.3
11. King of the Sea 4yo colt 15.3
12. Monsoon 4yo mare 15.3
13. Firefighter 3yo colt 15.3
14. Night Thrasher 2yo colt 15.3
15. Big Easy 5yo male 15.2
16. Shadowcat 5yo mare 15.2
17. Union Jack 4yo colt 15.2
18. Emeritus 3yo colt 15.2

Interestingly, Nightwing, who towers above his stablemates at 17.2 hands, has yet to produce an offspring taller than 16.1 hands (that being the highly touted Daredevil who was recently purchased by Bonai Farms).

New filly excites trainers

Dragon Force, the 2yo filly by Crown Prince out of Dragon Flyer, has been the talk of the stable since her auction acquisition.

We contacted Red Wing Stables a year ago to inquire about the availability of this filly but were unable to make a deal. When Dragon Force was transferred to Endless Vista, we settled our sights on her again.

As I mentioned in a previous post, we are very high on Dragon Flyer as a dam. That was the primary reason we coveted Dragon Force. Union Jack and Rogue are both out of Dragon Flyer.

Additionally, we had three 2yo's starting in 2009 and all of them are colts. We wanted a 2yo filly for the upcoming season as well.

We are waiting for the AR from Endless Vista. Union Jack and Rogue show that Dragon Flyer has the propensity to produce routers. However Crown Prince, the renowned sprinter, sired Dragon Force. Naturally, we are hoping that she got speed and distance.

Optimism prevails for 2009 racing season

There is an underlying feeling of optimism in our stable this off-season that is different from what I've felt in the past.

In previous seasons, I've been very confident of individual horses. For instance, Nightwing was always was a threat to win. Unfortunately for him, Nightwing was often running head-to-head with the likes of Memcay, Chatterbox, Promised Land, Troll Tower, and in my opinion, the greatest horse in PF history Thunder Arctic.

I also had supreme confidence in War Machine. As I have mentioned ad nauseam, I thought he was unbeatable in his prime and I expected nothing less than a win every time he raced.

However, the rest of my racers at those times did not provide the same level of confidence.

Which brings us to 2009.

We are brimming with confidence. The depth of talent that we possess and the broad scope of abilities has us literally wriggling with impatience to hit the track.

We have sprinters, milers, and routers on both dirt and turf. We have young horses with great promise and older horses that are just hitting their prime. Overall, the scope of our current talent is the broadest in the history of Otsego Farms and includes the following horses:

1. Doomsday 5yo male - Still has speed. If placed wisely, this frontrunner can win on dirt or turf at 7 furlongs or less.
2. Big Easy 5yo male - Does this star miler have another year in the tank? Averaged around 100 on his speed scores last season.
3. Union Jack 4yo colt - Should be one of the premier turf stayers in 2009. Looking forward to the big money 4+ races.
4. Nova 4yo filly - She'll be tough to beat on dirt at 7 or less. Not being nominated for Sprinter of the Year in 2008 was a travesty.
5. King of the Sea 4yo colt - Very competitive at 8-10 furlongs. We'll pick races carefully to maximize his chances.
6. Kid Flash 3yo colt - Showed some promise as last season progressed. Probably will stay at 8 or less furlongs.

Additionally, our 3yo sprinting filly, Lady Katherine looks ready for a breakout season. Big Slick, and Mister Fantastic, a couple of sharp big-lunged 2yo colts, may impress.

We have hope that 3yo colt Firefighter has matured and can perform better. Nightwing's offspring, 2yo Night Thrasher will get a look this year as well.

We are projecting 20-25 wins this season in approximately 105 starts.

Does that sound too optimistic to you?

Don't bet against it.....

Otsego welcomes excellent miler Big Easy

Big Easy, the fleet miler of Bonai, was purchased by Otsego Farms at the recently concluded auction.

We are extremely excited to have acquired such a high profile horse. Big Easy has compiled an outstanding career record of 35-13-15-4 with total earnings of $3,868,400.

He had a record of 10-2-6-1 in 2008 with earnings just under a million. If you throw out his final race of the season, which was admittedly a bad trip in the BC Mile, his lowest speed score was 96. He topped out at 110 twice, once on turf and again on dirt.

Pre-auction discussions with the connections at Bonai hinted that Big Easy may be on the way down talent-wise. We decided that we could not pass on a opportunity to own a horse of this calibre, regardless of where he is on his talent spectrum.

When combined with Doomsday, King of the Sea, Union Jack, and Nova, we feel we have as good a bunch of older horses as can be found in Photo-Finish.

Racer portion of auction completed

UNOFFICIAL AT THIS TIME. FINAL SALES RESULTS HAVE NOT YET BEEN POSTED.

It got frantic as the seconds ticked down to 8pm ET. The were four horses that really caught my attention. I hoped to get two of them.

1. Big Easy, 5yo male from Bonai.
2. Fine Jeune Day, 4yo filly from Stonewall.
3. Arctic Fox, 2yo filly from Endless Vista.
4. Dragon Force, 2yo filly from Endless Vista.

Stonewall was bidding against me on FJD, so I gave up on that possibility. Since he was the buyer and seller, he can bid whatever he wants since he'll be giving himself the money.

Our similar taste for talent manifested itself again as I noticed that Stoney was also bidding on Arctic Fox, a filly that he bred. Since my preference was Dragon Force of the two 2yo fillies, I also dropped out of that bidding war.

I wanted Dragon Force because her dam, Dragon Flyer, produced Union Jack, my fine 4yo router, and Rogue, my yearling filly by War Machine. I am very happy with both of those horses, so I thought I'd like to have the only other Dragon Flyer offspring that is available. Unofficially, I was able to acquire her for $176,000.

So, that left Big Easy. Incredibly, Stonewall and I were also both interested in this superb miler. I had actually discussed Big Easy via email with Donnie of Bonai Farms earlier in the day. I wondered how much gas BE still had in his tank. It was Donnie's opinion (and he is one of the most successful owners in Photo Finish) that BE was on the decline. I checked his performance from last season, and with the exception of his last race, he was very good. I decided to throw caution to the wind and try to get the big fellow. Unofficially, I was able to acquire him for $667,777. Hopefully he can earn that much for me in the upcoming season.

So, if those two purchase hold up, and I have every reason to think they will, I will have acquired a fine 2yo filly in Dragon Force, and the dangerous 5yo male Big Easy.

Pop the champagne boys, it's time to party!

Auction maneuvering....

I've been looking over the auction horses. I've decided that there are quite a few I like.

I've painted myself into a bit of a corner though. I only have 2 open stalls. After a fairly cursory review of the available talent, I've identified at least 5 that I would like to own.

A couple of those decisions will be made for me. I won't name any names, but I'm sure that a couple of the horses that I like will be very expensive. I'm not really into the big bidding wars so I'll bow out gracefully when they hit 7 digits.

Of course, I don't want other owners to know who I really want, so I'll throw several red herring bids out there just to obfuscate. You gotta be very careful on those though or you might end up with a horse you really don't want.

Without question, I'll be there at the stroke of eight, making my final bids on the horses I intend to own. Fair warning....if you find yourself in a bidding war with me at 7:59pm ET, you better be bold, because I'll be going large on my last bids.

Racer Preview - Night Thrasher

Night Thrasher by Nightwing out of Different. Will Race as a 2yo next season.

We are excited that a Nightwing foal will splash on the racing scene in 2009. Nightwing was our first big earner. We always consider him to be the foundation of our stable. As a result, we have been waiting inpatiently for his offspring to come along.

Nightwing was an all-surface stayer with tremendous stamina. We chose Different as the broodmare (although she was not our first choice) because of her surface adaptability and comparable stamina.

In spite of deep lungs on both genetic sides, Night Thrasher appears to be a sprinter. He does have capability on both dirt and grass, consistency, and good acceleration. Additionally, he'll be ready to run as a 2yo.

One concern is a tendancy to start slowly, a trait passed down by Nightwing no doubt. That is not particularly desirable for a sprinter.

Of course, we'll test our theories about Night Thrasher on the track. Perhaps he'll surprise us and have more distance in him than we suspect.

Winners Circle experience required, please.

Not all horses are as good as War Machine. I just need to accept that fact.

In the forum, many owners proudly state that they are pleased with their 3rd place finish. Why can't I be happy with that kind of result?

The fact is, I am completely disappointed if my horse doesn't win. Period.

Nova came in second in the Breeders Cup Sprint. Was I happy? Nope. To me, anything less than a win is simply a loss.

Which brings me to the subject of this rant. Is there room for mediocre horses?

Not in my stable.

By all accounts, Doomsday is a pretty good racer. He tops 100 in his speed scores occasionally and has career earnings over $1,000,000. So, why has he been on the bubble with me for the past 2 seasons?

Four career wins in 24 starts. Not good enough. Mathematically, he disappoints me 83% of the time. I find it very hard to live with that ratio, even though he is an above average racer.

When I reach a point where I don't feel the horse has a chance to win every race, I start to get the itch to sell. Doomsday is very competitive, but he hasn't been winning enough.

I'll cut slack for horses who are immature. But once they are in top racing form, a horse needs to win fairly consistently to keep a stall in my barn.

We'll be keeping an eye on several horses for the first third of the season in 2009. Mediocrity will not be tolerated.

Is Nova worthy of Eclipse nomination?

"Nova got stiffed", complained the groom at Otsego Farms as he brushed down the filly after a light workout.

I was walking through the barn yesterday and overheard that comment. A couple of the stablehands were in the midst of an animated discussion concerning the recently announced Eclipse award nominees.

"You gotta be kidding me!", the fellow continued, "Ten races, she never finishes worse than 2nd, and just misses winning the Breeders Cup Sprint by half a head, and no nomination?!"

I walked away deep in thought. Did a deserving Nova get overlooked as a potential Champion Sprinter?

Miss Fitz of Chiknsmack Stables got nominated as Champion Sprinter even though she was far less qualified than Nova. For example:

Miss Fitz had a record of 15-3-4-1 with and average speed score of 90. She had no track records, no Grade One wins, and earnings of $782,500.

Nova had a record of 10-5-5-0 with an average speed score of 109. She had 4 track records, 2 Grade One wins, and earnings of $958,750.

Nova has a better record, better speed, better earnings and more Grade 1 wins. It's hard to fathom why Nova is out and Miss Fitz is in.

I've come to the conclusion that my groom was right. Nova did get stiffed.

Random musings during a quiet off-season

1. Seems like we have some live wires in the most recent crop of newbies. That is not a bad thing though. We definitely need fresh blood to continue to stir things up. It would get boring otherwise.
2. I sure hope the super-filly syndrome goes away during the upcoming season. Laurie made the changes in the programming a while ago and I think they are supposed to kick in with this next batch of 2yo's. We'll probably still have to suffer through a couple seasons of filly dominance until the older horses retire though.
3. As Ettore alluded to in the Forum recently, there are probably gonna be a ton of horses available in the auction this year. Everybody is overbreeding because of the new foal/mare stabling rule. There will be some outstanding deals available. I envision as many foals as you can choke down for less than $20k apiece. We'll see.
4. I didn't do any research to back this statement up but, there sure seemed to be a glut of turf races again this past season. I've got a couple dirt sprinters and there weren't alot of options for them. This has been an issue in the past as well.
5. I was surprised to see the War Machine breeding drop down to the 5th (or was it 6th?) choice in the PW contest. Considering there are only 4 available breeding spots per year and he's booked for the next 2 breeding seasons, I really thought that he would be the first choice. Remember folks, he won 16 of 17 in his prime and every big race that you can win on dirt. If you want to sign on for 2010, step right up! : )
6. I am very high on a couple colts coming up next season. Keep an eye on Big Slick and Mister Fantastic. My 2yo crop that began racing this past season was a little disappointing although I still think Kid Flash and Lady Katherine may show something as 3yo's.
7. I don't think I like the rule of starting off new stables with their choice of horses from Endless Vista. There have been some newbies who have vaulted right into prominance by inheriting special horses. That luxury was not something that was available to the older stables. In fact, there are older stables who have still not hit the big time because they did not have the option of choosing a superstar as a freebie. I think new stables should be given $200,000 and then turned loose to buy their own racers. There is never a shortage of horses for sale so they should not have trouble getting into the races. They just won't be having Eclipse winners in their first season.
8. Is it just me, or did we used to have much deeper discussions on the Forum in the past? Seems like Forum discussions lately have been more superficial and infrequent than they used to be.
9. I'm thinking about doing a complete rewrite of my website. It really hasn't changed much in the past few seasons and I'm getting the itch to change it. By the way, can you hear the music when you bring the site up? When I do, I don't hear the music for some reason.
10. Ten races per season. That is my goal per horse for 2008. Plenty of rest is my new mantra. I'm following in Amanda's footsteps.

Otsego 2009 Racing Roster

Our 2009 racers will shake down like this:

1. Doomsday 5yo male - He will concentrate on Grade 3 races of 6 to 8 furlongs.
2. King of the Sea 4yo colt - We see him as a Grade 1 competitor at 8-10 furlongs.
3. Nova 4yo filly - Should compete at the highest levels at 7 furlongs or less on dirt.
4. Union Jack 4yo colt - Top quality stayer on turf at 10 or more furlongs.
5. Kid Flash 3 yo colt - Expecting big things on turf under 8 furlongs.
6. Lady Katherine 3yo filly - Coming along slowly, but looks promising as dirt sprinter.
7. Firefighter 3yo colt - Immature as 2yo. Has tools but will take some time.
8. Emeritus 3yo colt - At this point, Grade 3 or less ability at longer distances.
9. Big Slick 2yo colt - All-surface stayer who looks to have tremendous ability.
10. Mister Fantastic 2yo colt - Probably more of a threat as a 3yo. Likes classic distances.
11. Night Thrasher 2yo colt - Looks like a sprinter, which is a surprise. Ready to race.

Entering our 6th season in 2009, we feel this is the deepest string of racers yet. We feel that any of the top 6 listed above are capable of winning a race at any time.

Breeding pairs and names for 2008

Otsego Farms will be breeding four foals in 2008.

The pairings have all been previously announced, but here they are with the prospective foal names.

War Machine x Sharp Cat
Colt - Ultron
Filly - Domino

Nightwing x Shattered Record
Colt - Shatterstar
Filly - Shatterstar

Vampirical x Shadowcat
Colt - Tombstone
Filly - Feral

Predator x Monsoon
Colt - Sabretooth
Filly - Poison Ivy

We are very excited about the matches we've been able to make. Sharp Cat and Shattered Record were both successful racers and should produce outstanding foals. Shadowcat and Monsoon had modest results on the track but have very solid AR's.

More information will be forthcoming after the foals are born.

Otsego Farms million dollar earners

We've been fortunate enough here at Otsego to have had no less than 7 million dollar winners in our five years of operation. They are....

1. War Machine $12.6 million - All-time great
   
2. Nightwing $6.6 - Our first millionaire
   
3. Union Jack $2.7 - Big earnings potential next season
   
4. Predator $2.4 - Now owned by Zippy Chippy
   
5. Shattered Record $1.2 - Will be broodmare gold
   
6. Nova $1.1 - Fleet filly will earn another million at least
   
7. Doomsday $1.0 - Hopes to bounce back after poor 4yo season
   

Union Jack, Nova, and Doomsday will continue racing next season and will certainly add to their total winnings.

Running style preferences

The horses of Photo-Finish run with one of the following styles.

• Front runner/On Lead
• Stalker
• Mid-Pack
• Come From Behind
• Flexible

Certain styles obviously go very nicely with other horse attributes.

For Sprinters, I prefer a front runner who uses the On Lead strategy. I think you would agree that in a 5 or 6 furlong race with a big field, it's nice to get out front and out of the traffic. Hopefully they have the speed to maintain their early lead.

Conversely, I prefer a Mid-Pack or Come From Behind style for a Stayer. I like them to cruise along freely at a lower effort rating, then make a run at the end while the other horses are tiring.

The style that I least prefer is Flexible. It seems like every Flexible horse I own runs On Lead all the time. Predator, Doomsday, and War Machine all followed that pattern. All three were Flexible, but they all ran as a front runner almost exclusively.

They all were successful racers, but I feel that Predator and Doomsday could have both been much better if they had truly been Flexible rather than running On Lead every race. P and D were both supposed to be good up to 12 furlongs, but the On Lead strategy they employed made them expend too much early stamina, effectively making them both 8 furlong horses at the maximum. Running On Lead did not effect War Machine due to his remarkable stamina.

My next generation horses have the following combinations:

• Big Slick - Stalker / Likes a lot of distance
• Mister Fantastic - Mid-Pack / Classic distances
• Night Thrasher - Stalker / Sprinter

The new abbreviated AR's do not list the running style, so I will not know what Rogue, Bane, and Quicksilver prefer until I race them, then see the rating afterwards in Amanda's Past Performance spreadsheet.

King of the Sea is newest acquisition

We are very pleased to announce the auction purchase of the fine 3yo colt King of the Sea.

King was purchased at auction from Thunder Lodge for $401,000. His current record stands at 18-4-4-3 with career earnings of $705,050.

We have had our eye on this fellow since his debut last season. Frankly, we were very surprised that he was available, but jumped at the chance to own him.

We were bidding in the last minutes against the very horse-savvy stable Under The Weeping Moon. There is no one who understands and can diagnose the raw statistics like DJ. His interest in a horse is a veritable stamp of approval. This fact makes the purchase even more exciting.

Hopefully, we can get King of the Sea into a race yet this season. If not, he'll be ready as a 4yo, dirt, 8-10 furlong specialist in 2009.

Otsego free breedings? Ummm...nope.

It seems that offering free breedings to new players is the politically correct thing to do these days.

Evidently, newbies are such as fragile lot that they require special treatment. In addition to the free breedings, they also receive free horses when they open their doors.

Hmmm, I must have missed out on that deal. I paid for all the horses in my initial batch. I started right at the beginning of a season and bought my horses at the auction. No freebies for me. I don't remember the exact number, but I spent approximately $60,000 of my $200,000 stake on horses. Newbies weren't coddled back in my day.

Don't misunderstand, I love newbies. They are the life blood of the game. New ideas and new personalities are very important for the continuing health of Photo-Finish. I'm just not sure how we have evolved into acting like doting parents for every new player that comes aboard.

It just seems like we're holding their hands a little too much. They need to learn to walk on their own. If they fall and scrape their knees a couple times, so be it. It makes you appreciate walking on your own a little more when you've learned by yourself, know what I mean?

It may seem heartless of us here at Otsego Farms, but we believe in self-sufficiency. Therefore, we won't ever offer free breedings, free racers, or free broodmares. I have been known to sell a horse cheaply on occasion just to help someone out, but that is as far as I go. Just call me Snidely Whiplash. (Anyone remember him?)

Advice however, is always free.

Racer Preview - Big Slick

Big Slick by Troll Tower out of Charon. Will race as a 2yo next season.

We are very optimistic about this chestnut colt who was excellently bred by Joe from Pointgiven Stables.

The sire Troll Tower had a distinguished career with earnings of $7.6 million including a tremendous win at the Dubai World Cup.

Charon had just 12 races in her career, but had 7 wins and 5 second place finishes with career earnings just under one million.

Otsego Farms acquired Big Slick last year in a deal that included cash and a breeding to War Machine, which eventually produced the filly By A nose Jo (War Machine x Secret Status). Banjo was one of just two fillies in War Machine's initial foal crop, the other being Otsego's Rogue.

Big Slick inherited his fathers endurance, he likes a lot of distance. He is a fighter who is at least adequate on all surfaces. Some of his other attributes are:

• Incredibly consistent.
• Recovers quickly.
• Good acceleration.
• Breaks well.
• Good speed. Could set records.

We look forward to seeing Big Slick on the track next season. We anticipate approximately 6-8 races in his first season. Keep an eye on this one.