Otsego racing legend inspires Rock hit

To breed or not to breed: that is the question.

Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune by acquiring unraced horses and veteran racers.

Or to take arms against a sea of troubles by simply breeding a multitude of foals myself.

I have always considered Otsego Farms to be primarily a racing stable. Illustrating that fact is my less than prolific 18 total foals produced, even though the 2012 racing season will be my 10th in Photo Finish.

I bring this up because I am on the threshold of changing my breeding strategy. Under my current system, I breed few horses and I have to constantly replenish my stable with racing-age horses. Frankly, it's a bit of a grind because it's not always easy to acquire talented veteran racers. For some reason, people don't always want to give them up. Unraced 2yo's are a rare and sometimes expensive commodity as well. So, every year, I find myself scrambling to secure a stable full of solid racers.

I'm slowly coming to the conclusion that it may be best to ramp up foal production to around 10 foals per season, give or take. This would ensure a steady stream of racers. With this kind of influx, I wouldn't have to constantly be on the lookout for racing stock.

I like the idea but I'm still thinking about it. There are many factors to consider. I'll sleep on it.

To sleep: perchance to dream of Photo-Finish domination......

2011 Racer Report Card

Here are grades and brief comments on my current racers based on their performance in the 2010 season:

Affirm Gal (10-1-2-2) - Won her first race with a sterling 110 PSR then slumped the rest of the season, ultimately showing her age. Will be off to the breeding shed with an appointment with Nightwing. Grade: C+

Union Jack (7-0-2-1) - Failed to get a win in a season for the first time in 5 years. In retrospect, he should have probably been retired at the end of last season. Will begin his stud career immediately. Grade: C

Stowaway (9-2-5-1) - Another solid season from the sprinting veteran, who set a World Record at 6.5 furlongs in the process. Grade: A-

Big Slick (11-2-2-4) - The maturation process continued in 2010. He hit 100+ PSR in 6 of 11 races and just missed on a couple others. Grade: A-

Eminem (10-1-1-4) - Consistently speedy but win-hungry. We anticipate a successful 2012. Grade: B-

Mister Fantastic (9-1-4-2) - Still showing signs of immaturity, but is improving. Has one more season to show his stuff. Grade: B

Petenwell (9-3-0-1) - Raced under the colors of Smokey's Stable in 2010 and was very solid racing strictly in Grade One and Grade Two races. We'll drop him down a level for his 5yo season. No grade because he didn't race at Otsego last season.

A View to a Kill (8-3-2-1) - Full grown, strong and ready to rock as a 4yo in 2012. Big time potential and a chip off the old block. Grade: A

Hex (12-1-1-2) - Keep him on grass at 11 furlongs and he throws up PSR's in the 90's. I'll take that in low level races. Grade: C

Immortal (8-1-2-1) - Talented filly who finds a way into the money. Will race another season or two before becoming a broodmare. Grade: B-

Rogue (10-1-4-2) - She's getting better every season. One more season at Otsego, then to another stable to continue career as racer or broodmare. Grade: B

Domino (6-1-1-1) - Decent debut for this celebrated filly. Hopefully, the speed will blossom as a 3yo. Grade: C+

Sabretooth (5-0-1-0) - Needs a little more time and a lot more distance. We expect serious improvement next year. Grade: C

Shatterstar (5-1-2-0) - We love this guy. Runs like Dad and has plenty of talent. Prefers the grass, but could be a Derby contender nevertheless. Grade: A

Tombstone (5-0-1-0) - Shows flashes of ability. We like his chances. Grade: C-

Exciting acquisition announced....

Petenwell, the 4yo dark gray colt bred by Smokey's Stable, has been purchased by Otsego Farms in a cash transaction announced by both stables today. This classic distance veteran racer is by Dawn Patrol out of Madcap Escapade, and is an exciting addition to the Otsego racing string.

Commenting on the purchase, Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber said, "Chris and I met at the Casino in Greektown and hashed out a deal on Petenwell. I was looking for a classy veteran and Petenwell fit the bill perfectly. I also dealt with Chris earlier this year on the Isca's Revenge breeding deal, and he has been more than generous in both cases. We'll remember that. He'll get taken care of in the future, that I guarantee."

Webber was referring to Smokey's Stable owner Chris Campbell and the broodmare lease of super-mare Isca's Revenge who will pair with War Machine at the conclusion of this season.

Petenwell has competed primarily at 9-12 furlongs on both turf and dirt. Three Grade One victories and 13 races with PSR's over 100 in 24 career starts highlight a solid resume'. Plans for 2012 call for racing primarily in Grade Two races.

Does anyone else agonize over foal names? Or is it just me?

I have named, reconsidered, and renamed my five forthcoming foals a dozen times. You may ask, why does he vacillate on something as trivial as a name?

I've commented on this blog and in the forum that names are very important to me. So much so, that I have actually purchased horses based on their names alone. The most recent example of this propensity of mine was the acquisition of the 2yo filly Katana. I am known as Samurai Jack in many fantasy sports leagues and as soon as I saw that Katana was available, I coveted her. It seemed to me that destiny was beckoning.

I have been all over the map on names for the War Machine x Isca's Revenge foal. First I chose strong Superhero names, as is my custom. Later I decided on a more whimsical approach, picking Admiral Boom and Cat Ballou, both names from the silver screen. As of yesterday, I have changed my plan once again, picking the Narnia-inspired Deep Magic as the name, regardless of sex.

I'll definitely stick with the Star Wars Jedi names, Kit Fisto and Shaak Ti for the War Machine x In Spirit foal. But I am reconsidering the names I picked for Union Jack x Shattered Record. Caius Britainnicus and Britainnia have lost their luster.

I'll think of something. It's what I do.

Racing roster for 2012

The 2011 racing season has been deemed a success.

We've had strong results from veteran racers such as Confederation, Stowaway, and Big Slick (pictured at left); exciting performances from up-and-comers like A View to a Kill, Mister Fantastic, and Rogue; and encouraging moments from youngsters such as Shatterstar, Sabretooth, and Tombstone.

With these horses forming the vanguard of our 2012 racing string and throwing in the likes of Eminem, Immortal, and Domino, and it's easy to see how we can be optimistic about our prospects for 2012.


With the exception of Confederation, all of the above-mentioned racers will be back in 2012. Joining them will be the following 2yo's:

Huntress (Big Easy x Shadowcat) - Classic distance multi-surface filly.
Starfire (Nightwing x Shattered Record) - Full sister to Shatterstar will run around 8 furlongs on all surfaces.
Katana (Sovereign Sword x Go Dancing) - Turf sprinting filly.
Ultron (War Machine x Nova) - Dirt sprinting colt who is pictured at left.

Additionally, we'll attempt to secure a couple veteran racers at the year-end auction to round out our roster for 2012.

2012 Stable Makeover Continues....

Veteran racers True Ensign and Confederation (shown above) have both been sold in stall management transactions. True Ensign was sold back to Eureka Racing Stables and Confederation was shipped to Godolphin17.

Otsego Farms had planned on selling True Ensign back to Eureka at the conclusion of this season all along, but the sale of Confederation was a bit of a surprise. He has been running very well and was definitely in the mix for 2012.

When asked about Confederation, Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber responded, "I have nothing but respect and admiration for that horse. In fact, he is one of my favorites. It was a business decision, pure and simple." With five or six incoming foals and their eye on a couple horses in the annual auction, Otsego Farms was in the unenviable position of having to make room.

Webber continued, "I thought about keeping Confederation and selling Stowaway instead, but after several heated discussions with my training staff, we concluded that Stowaway had a little more gas in the tank and was a better option for racing as a 6yo. Time will tell if it was the right decision."

These sales come on the heels of a transaction involving 3yo sprinter Deadly Force, who was sold to Sunshine Stables a couple of weeks ago.

A View to a Kill finishes strong 2nd in lucrative Japan Cup

Otsego Farms' 3yo stayer A View to a Kill (Bally Doyle; War Machine x Dancing Delaware), earned $1,250,000 by finishing second in the 12 furlong Japan Cup this weekend.

The entries included phenom Heat Seeker from FDL Lodge, Faldo from Olmo Dorato, Retribution from Spartan Racing Stables, and Chiknsmack's Silver Poetry. The field could have been much tougher, but many other champion caliber horses skipped this event to attend various Breeders Cup races.

Killer cruised along mid-pack until the final 2 furlongs, when he moved into second and stayed there, watching the 2/1 favorite Heat Seeker run away from the pack and win by almost 10 lengths. Faldo finished third, and the veteran Retribution came in fourth.

Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber was calm at the finish line, simply raising a fist as Killer crossed the finish line in 2nd. "We had hoped for a win, but realized that beating Heat Seeker was gonna be unbelievably difficult. We'll get him next year", Webber said as he marched off towards the winners circle to congratulate the FDL connections.

A View to a Kill will take the remainder of the year off, bypassing the Hong Kong races.

Dynamic Damsel Duo notch first victories

Rogue (pictured above) and Domino, our 3yo and 2yo chestnut fillies out of War Machine, both recently brought home their first wins.

Rogue, who has been showing much better form in the second half of her 3yo season, won the 8.5 furlong Boiling Springs Handicap on turf. She now has a record of 14-1-4-2 and has not finished worse than second in her last four races.

In her fifth career race, Domino won the KS Thoroughbred Assn Futurity Fillies at 5.5 furlongs on dirt. The track was sloppy, but Domino had no trouble, winning easily by over 4 lengths.

Both fillies will race again next season, joining 4yo colt A View to a Kill and 2yo colt Ultron in a four-headed monster of War Machine offspring sporting the Otsego blue and gold.

Nightwing quartet making waves

Four Nightwing (pictured above) colts are making a name for themselves this season, and in the process, making a name for their sire as well.

Daredevil (3yo - Bonai), Gournay (3yo - Yeguada Lore Toki), Goodbye COV (3yo - History's Own), and Shatterstar (2yo - Otsego Farms), have a combined 2011 record of 33-15-9-2.

Daredevil has had a monumental season, with a legitimate chance at HOY honors, but the other three colts have shown talent as well with 7 victories between them in 23 total starts.

Congratulations to these fine colts and their owners. We hope for continued success.

Two lessons learned, stable life goes on....

I've re-learned some lessons in the past couple weeks....

1) Do not discuss plans on horse sales and acquisitions with anyone but your most trusted allies.

I recently made the mistake of relating my plans regarding a horse that was available via auction, to a fellow PF participant. He relayed that info to another stable and a plot to thwart my acquisition was born. The whole tasteless affair has been resolved, but my reputation has been unforgivably besmirched on the forum. I'll remember this episode well and my future dealings with these two stables will be very limited.

2) Never give up too early on a well-bred horse with a nice AR.

Even though she is by my beloved War Machine, and half-sister to Union Jack, the 3yo filly Rogue had been a bit of a disappointment. She had not won a race in 13 starts and had put up acceptable but unremarkable PSR's. I grew restless and decided to sell her.

I had the common sense at least, to set a high reserve of $500,000. It was not met ($250,000 was the high bid) and Rogue stayed at Otsego Farms. She responded by winning her next race with a 97 PSR and pocketing $120,000. My confidence in Rogue has been restored, and while she may not be a superstar, she will be a solid entry in the underpopulated F&M races next year.

Also, Mister Fantastic, a slowly maturing horse, has started to come of age. Due to my impatience, I have debated selling him for the past season and a half. Having raced just 6 times by the start of his 4yo season, he was fresh and finally seemed ready to compete. MF has finished 2,2,2,1 in his last four races and is obviously gaining confidence in his own abilities.

I bred him and I'm very glad that I waited for him to mature rather than shipping him out after 4-5 mediocre outings.

Upward and onward!

Miscellaneous Otsego news....

The quest for a quality broodmare to lease for War Machine is over. In a spectacularly generous gesture, Chris from Smokey's Stable will allow us the use of Isca's Revenge, the superb classic distance mare. It's a picture-perfect match and we are extremely excited about the prospects for this foal. Future considerations was all that was disclosed regarding the terms of the transaction.

Rogue, the 3yo chestnut filly by War Machine, has been available for a few days on the auction page. She has been lightly raced and has shown some promise recently on the track. Her AR is solid and we feel that she will have some future racing success and that she will make an exceptional broodmare. We don't want to carry a broodmare that cannot breed with War Machine, so her future with Otsego Farms is limited. The auction will end at 4pm ET on Sunday. If the fairly lofty reserve is not met, I may entertain other offers. There has been some interest shown via email by three stables.

Confederation, at 5 years old, continues to amaze me with his excellence and consistency. In his last 10 races, his PSR's have been 109, 107, 108, 110, 93, 116, 105, 112, 112, and 110. During that span, his record has been 10-6-1-2. We've decided to race him again next season. We won't have room to keep him as a stud when he retires, but I hope to sell him at that time to someone who will keep him in that capacity. I have a feeling that this fellow will turn out successful offspring.

We are very encouraged by the light grey 2yo colt Shatterstar. He has a current record of 3-1-1-0 and just missed a second win by an eyelash. His three races have all been at 8 furlongs and since that is at the short end of his stamina spectrum, we are anxious to see him operate at 10+ furlongs. He is by Nightwing out of Shattered Record.

We may consider moving 3yo sprinter Deadly Force in the near future. He has ability, having gone over 100 PSR in 3 of his last 5 races. He has not panned out according to our expectations however and may get caught in a stall squeeze. If you have interest let me know via email.

War Machine and Union Jack are fully booked for the upcoming breeding season, but Nightwing still has slots available, and at just $25,000, he's a bargain. Nightwing is a true stayer with ability on both turf and dirt. His offspring have had significant recent success as well, as witnessed by the exploits of Daredevil, Gournay, Goodbye COV, and of course Shatterstar.

2012 planning begins early...

It seems like I start planning earlier every season.

I have literally been itching for the past several weeks to set up breeding pairs and to divest myself of horses that do not figure into next years plans. In fact, it has been with the greatest strength of will that I haven't put several horses up for early auction.

In an attempt to beat the year-end rush, and in spite of exemplary results, I seriously considered selling both Confederation and Stowaway recently. After all, they are both 5 years old; how much longer can they compete?

After consultation with my training staff and studying their race results and AR's, I've decided to keep both horses as racers in 2012. I'm sure this is the right decision, but it was touch and go for awhile as I was equally sure that selling them might be timely and correct just a couple weeks ago.

To open up stall space for my incoming foal crop, True Ensign will be sent back to sentimental owner Lise Harrison at Eureka Racing Stables at the end of the season. Additionally, the recently acquired 3yo Hex, might eventually have to be sacrificed.

My 3yo filly Rogue (War Machine x Dragon Flyer) has been rumored to be available. There is some truth to that. I might consider shipping her to another stable, even though her results have been more encouraging lately.

On the breeding front, I am currently considering the following pairings and names:

Revenge x Nova
Colt - Quasar
Filly - Lightning Lass

War Machine x In Spirit
Colt - Sakr-el-Bahr
Filly - Witchblade

Union Jack x Shattered Record
Colt - Caius Britainnicus
Filly - Boudica

Nightwing x Affirm Gal
Colt - Darkhawk
Filly - Moondragon

I'm currently looking for a mare to lease so I can produce a second War Machine foal.

That's what I'm thinking for now. I'm sure I will contemplate changes before the end of the season though.

Can you handle the truth?

These fantasy horses are very complex critters.

When a new foal is born, we are presented with a short AR which gives us rudimentary information about the new arrival. That information, plus what we can glean from studying the history of the sire and dam, is all we have to plan the new horses future.

Later, we gain more information by watching the horse race. Eventually, we develop a clear picture of the horses abilities and shortcomings. Sometimes this revelation comes quickly, sometimes it doesn't.

As I said, these fantasy horses are very complex critters. The small amount of information on the AR camouflage's the fact that there are many, many facets to the abilities and disabilities of each horse.

Here is a list of the attributes of each horse in the Photo-Finish game.

• Break Speed
• Early Speed
• Top Speed
• Long Stamina
• Ratability
• Running on Lead
• Handles Traffic
• Courage
• Soundness
• Curve Ability
• Durability
• Consistency
• Weight Stress Point
• Begin Peak Age
• End Peak Age
• Peak % at Age 3.3
• Running Style
• Acceleration
• Hard Dirt Ability
• Soft Dirt Ability
• Mud Ability
• Firm Turf Ability
• Soft Turf Ability

I imagine that many of these rating are intertwined when it comes to the horse performance on the track. For instance, a Poor Break Speed and the Far Back Running Style, may spell doom for a 5-furlong sprinter even if he has the most illustrious parents. Conversely, if all of the proper attributes fall correctly into place, you can have a superstar from relatively humble origins.

The attributes for each foal are determined by a mathematical breeding program devised by Photo-Finish Founder Laurie Brown.

Each attribute for the new foal is determined in the following manner:

• 25% probability of using the sire rating
• 25% probability of using the dam rating
• 25% probability of using the average of the sire and dam rating
• 25% random probability

Some Photo-Finish participants adhere to the belief that breeding is pure luck. As anyone can plainly see, the random probability is limited to 25%. Therefore 75% of the foal attributes are determined solely by the sire and dam. Unequivocally, this means that it is better to use the best quality sire and dam you can and to trust in statistical probability to produce a high quality foal.

However as shown above, there are many attributes to be determined for each horse and it is possible that poor ratings in key areas can torpedo a foal's future on the track. These poor ratings can be a result of a random anomaly or because both parents had a common weakness that manifests itself in the foal.

Those who trust in "pure luck" and pick poor studs or severely mismatched breeding pairs are statistically more apt to fail. That is a fact that cannot be disputed.

Prognosis good for Union Jack initial pairings. Well-established stables step up.

Seven solid citizens of the Photo-Finish community chose to reserve spots with Union Jack, the compact but robust turf stayer, who will be retiring at the end of the 2011 racing season.

Careful analysis of his AR and examination of his racing record lead many experts to conclude that Union Jack could be a sleeper-stud. He wasn't one of the all-time racing superstars, but he was an honest racer with tremendous ability.

Otsego owner Jim Webber summed it up quickly, "Jack is a stand-up guy, who has quietly done his job. He'll produce winners."

The names of the mares will not be disclosed at this time, but the stables that have spots with Jack are:

• Olmo Dorato
• Foxies Lodge
• Snowbank
• Bally Doyle
• Oak Tree
• 4th Alarm
• History's Own

At the time of this writing there is still one spot available. There have however, been some soft negotiations with a couple other stables that may not currently have a suitable mare.

This train is ready to leave the station. Don't miss it.

Un, Deux, Trois. Sixteen furlongs is the law.

We are fortunate here at Otsego Farms to have three quality studs who can provide a tremendous genetic probability of obtaining a real stayer. All three had significant success on the track and had the steam to do 16 furlongs.

Nightwing, who excelled on both dirt and turf, has an AR distance line that reads, "Handles 10 furlongs to 16 furlongs. Best distance 16 furlongs." As a stud, he has been generally underutilized in the past. Perhaps that will change with the success that Daredevil and Goodbye COV are experiencing. AVAILABLE at $25,000.

Union Jack, is primarily a turfer, but his AR states that he is Good, OK, Good on the three dirt categories. Distance-wise he is reported as handling, "10 furlongs to 16 furlongs." His AR does not state a best distance, but he has run successfully at 16 furlongs and holds the World Record at 14 furlongs. AVAILABLE at $50,000.

And most suprisingly, the AR for War Machine, who was mostly known for his exploits at 10 furlongs, states that he "Handles 10 furlongs to 16 furlongs. Best distance 16 furlongs." His offspring A View To A Kill, who is out of 16 furlong capable Dancing Delaware, shows off the potential of getting a stayer if matched with an appropriate dam. GENERALLY UNAVAILABLE except under special circumstances.

Breeding is always a gamble. Sprinters can pop out at the most inopportune times. But, these guys will put the odds in your favor if competing in the longer races is your goal.

Otsego Farms - The Superheroes of Racing - We Think 16.

Still looking for a mare to lease...

Otsego Farms will produce a record five foals later this season The pairings I have in mind at this point are:

1. War Machine x Affirm Gal
2. War Machine x Nova
3. Union Jack x Shattered Record
4. Union Jack x In Spirit

The odd man out at this point is Nightwing. I don't own a fifth broodmare, so I plan on leasing one if possible.

I'd like to secure a mare that has the following traits:

• Excellent stamina. Able to run 12-16 furlongs.
• Stalker or Mid-pack running style.
• No history of injury or soreness.
• At least OK on all surfaces.

I would pay a significant fee for the right mare. I realize that a mare in the caliber of Promised Land or Domitila will not be available, but I will certainly look at others that possess the above traits.

Otsego announces newest acquisition

Hex, the 3yo chestnut colt bred by KRF Stables, and recently owned by Olmo Dorato, has been acquired by Otsego Farms.

In a brief statement, Otsego owner Jim Webber joked that the reason he purchased the colt was because he "liked his name". He continued by saying, "È un piacere fare affari con Ettore, che è un po 'come un fratello per me."

Hex, who is by Hold That Tiger out of Heat Haze, has a career record of 10-0-1-1. When asked about the horse's modest record, Webber explained, "At around 11 furlongs on turf, this horse has real ability. We think there is definite upside and we intend to exploit it".

Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but it is known that breeding slots to soon-to-be stallion Union Jack were discussed.

Quick takes on what I observed this weekend...

A View To A Kill - Really thought he'd win, but very happy with a 2nd in the Belmont. Definitely doing his daddy proud.

Eminem - Looked fairly sharp placing 3rd at 8 furlongs, but tired a bit at the end. He'll try 7 furlongs again next time.

Candle of Life - Stretched him back out to 9 furlongs and he handled it well with a 3rd place finish. He keeps finding a way to stick around after I've made up my mind to ship him out....

Born to Fly - Has talent, but he's frustrating me and I already have another 3yo sprinter. On his way out.

Mister Fantastic - He has been ever so slow to grow up, but patience may pay dividends here. Now has finished 2nd in 3 of last 5 starts.

True Ensign - The old pro really isn't slowing down too much. He's been consistent, if unspectacular. Ran out of gas in a 4th place finish this week.

Deadly Force - Ugly 8th place finish. Never in this race from the start.

Tombstone - PSR was low but he looked decent to me. The distance was way too short, but I wanted to get him some experience. This Vampirical-sired stayer will have success, I'm sure.

No, I am not the Invisible Man.

More than 6 weeks has gone by since the last entry in the Otsego Insider.

The truth of the matter is, I spent a month at the Hospital San Juan De Dios near Navarre, Spain, recovering from injuries suffered shortly after my well-publicized run with the bulls.

It happened as I was chatting with reporters after I finished my run. Of course, I am able to speak fluent Spanish due to a year spent in Spain at the University of Cádiz.

Suddenly a rogue bull appeared, seemingly from nowhere, and bore down on a beautiful 3yr old girl who was playing with a butterfly along the avenue.

Naturally, instinct took over and I leapt to rescue the child from under the crushing hoofs of the massive beast. Shortly thereafter, I was able to hand the unharmed child to her grateful parents before collapsing myself with multiple injuries, which were too numerous to mention.

My steel constitution rewarded me with a quick recovery and here I am, back in the States and ready to resume day-to-day operations at Otsego Farms; which has been accomplished in the past month via computer, phone, and video conferencing.

Recent items of note that deserve comment:

1. Acquisition of 4yo colt Eminem. I'm was happy to get this speedy fellow from Royal Flush Farms. He is a proven talent and is settling in nicely.
2. Further development of 3yo colt A View To A Kill. I'm still pinching myself every time I see this colt in the barn. I remain very grateful to Amanda at Bally Doyle for parting with this immense talent. I loved him from his first race, and told Amanda so then. He has won two in a row, including the Wood Memorial, and races next weekend in the Belmont.
3. Acquisition of 3yo filly Immortal. This is a special filly and we're very fortunate to have her. Our thanks to Foxie at Foxie's Lodge for contacting me with this opportunity.
4. Our 2yo colt Shatterstar (Nightwing x Shattered Record) has tongues wagging. He finished 2nd in his first race, displaying a running style eerily similar to his slow-starting, hard-charging sire.
   
5. Veteran 5yo colt's Confederation and Stowaway continue to defy Father Time by consistently putting up wins and sparkling PSR's.

I'll be attending the Belmont Stakes next weekend to watch Killer try to spoil the triple crown bid of Sligeach. I've got 15 seats in my private suite, available to all PF owners on a first-come, first-serve basis. Noble and Mandy have first dibs though...