It's a two-horse race!

The Morphettville Guineas, which is one mile on turf for 3yo fillies, drew just two entries this year.

Lady Monarch, running out of Cavalier Stables, and Goldolphin17's Windchime will compete head-to-head in a rare match race this weekend.  Both are winless in their short careers, so a maiden will be broken.

The question is... which one will prevail?

They are two entirely different types of racers, with Lady Monarch being more of the sprinting variety and Windchime leaning towards distance.  This race, being at 8F, splits the difference rather nicely and makes the matchup interesting, in a number-crunching kind of way.

I called Lady Monarch a sprinter, but that is a bit of a misnomer.  She really is kinda slow for short races.  She also has an abnormally high kick, which argues with her sprinting stamina.  All in all, her conflicting stats no doubt contribute to her overall ineffectiveness.

Classifying Windchime as a distance horse is not exactly on the mark either.  She does have a nice stamina rating, but her kick is much lower than what you'd like to see in a stayer type.  Also, she is a slow starter with slow early speed... OK in long races, but generally a bad combination in races of less than 9F, like The Morphettville Guineas.

So who will win?  

It could really go either way.  Neither horse stands out at this distance.

SCENARIO ONE:  Lady Monarch grabs an early lead, stretches out to 3-4 lengths, and hangs on at the end as Windchime is gaining ground.

SCENARIO TWO:  Lady Monarch leads early, but begins to falter by 6F.  Windchime reels her in and wins by several lengths.

Prediction - Windchime wins.

Stable Spotlight - Olmo Dorato

As far as I know, Olmo Dorato is the largest stable in the Photo Finish universe.

Owned by our Italian friend, Ettore Pozzoli, Olmo Dorato has 240 stalls, with 15 stallions and 42 broodmares.

This stable is also a powerhouse; routinely atop the earnings list, usually with a plethora of outstanding horses.

Ettore's favorite horse is the legendary Capro Espiatorio... and it's no wonder why.  In his racing years, this colt won four different Eclipse Awards and had over $21,000,000 in earnings!  Ettore has also enjoyed many other major accomplishments, including several Breeders Cup victories.

He can be reached on the forum as "Brusko" or via email at 24dicembre@virgilio.it.

I'm sending out the A-Team

There is no Plan B...

Lapsus pulling in a win at the GR3 Risen Star Stakes this week puts him on the Kentucky Derby map and that was my plan.  As mentioned previously, probably ad nauseum to some, I have visions of multiple entries in this years Kentucky Derby.  

Helikaon, perhaps my best chance for a Derby win, squandered an opportunity in his last outing and is currently outside the top 25 potential qualifiers.  We hope he can rectify this situation with a win in next weeks Fountain of Youth Stakes.

Rico Suave will run in the 10F Revenge Stakes, and barring a scratch, we feel he will win this race easily.  If so, he will vault up the rankings and get himself into position for a berth.

Lastly, Infinity World will shoot the moon next weekend and enter as a underdog in the GR 1 Gulfstream Park Handicap.  He will have tough competition, but we feel he has a chance at this race, especially with the weight advantage he will enjoy as a 3yo.

I love it when a plan comes together, and if it all works out, I hope to have at least two entries in the big race this year.  I pity the fools who get in my way...

Stable Spotlight - Laurabelle Racing

Dave "Deeds" Catsimbras has been a member of the Photo Finish community since 2007.  He is known to be a scrappy and opinionated participant who does not shy away from controversial topics, which are traits I can certainly appreciate.

Laurabelle is a mid-sized stable at 75 stalls.  He has 3 stallions and 15 broodmares.

His favorite horse?  The bay mare Beautiful Angel, who had a modest race record, but holds a special spot in his heart because she was his first competitive racer and G1 winner.  She currently resides at Elite Thoroughbreds as a broodmare.

Deeds can be reached at drdeeds3@hotmail.com or via the PF forum as "Deeds".

The numbers add up for Le Chiffre

I don't think there is any questions that he is the preeminent 16F horse in Photo Finish at this point in time.

His stamina and kick ratings are the maximum allowed by law, which makes him an extremely tough nut to crack at two miles.  With the tools he has, if he gets a clean trip, he is almost impossible to beat.  That was shown at the GR2 Diamond Stakes this weekend, when he loped to an easy 2L victory over Port Pirie's 5yo Y Am I Here.

Le Chiffre ran into some traffic and was momentarily blocked with about 4-5 furlongs to go, but was able to swing wide and get around the bunch up.  Once clear, he turned up the juice and cruised to victory.  Y Am I Here was closing at the end, but that was because Le Chiffre had taken his foot off the gas.

His next race will be the Melbourne Cup on April 2nd.

Fascinating!

I was looking over my fillies the other day, trying to decide who might be a long-term keeper for breeding purposes.  Southern Charm and Baby Greyhound are both 17, so I need to start thinking about their eventual replacements.

The current filly who is really catching my eye is the 3yo Simply Charming.  She is a statuesque 17.2 hh and as pretty as a picture.  Plus, she has won 4 times in 7 career starts with her wins coming at 5 and 6 furlongs.  She has a little more juice than that though, with my trainers saying that she could make a mile any time now.  Her 92 speed and 69 stamina imply her future definitely does not reside at 6F.

What really fascinated me was the fact that she has Southern Charm as a paternal grandmother and War Machine as a maternal grandfather!  History has shown that a filly with the blood of those two flowing in her veins is almost a lock for a successful career.  Just look at War of the Lilies and Southern Belle... plus keep your eye on A Victor's Tribute, who I expect to explode as a 3yo this year.

I realize that my filly is not a direct result of War Machine x Southern Charm, but I am hoping that the special something that makes their fillies marvelous resides within Simply Charming.

Stable Spotlight - Cavalier Stables

Jeff Carmines, owner of Cavalier, has been an upstanding participant in Photo Finish since 2004.

Unlike many of us, he has resisted the urge to expand incessantly, maintaining and svelte size of 31 stalls, two of which are occupied by stallions, and three by broodmares.

His favorite horse was the fleet filly Wahoo Orange, who was bred by Cavalier and had a long and illustrious career spanning six racing seasons.  His top accomplishment was a Wahoo Orange Eclipse nomination for Older Female in the 2014 season.  That award was won by the Chiquita filly Indecent Proposal who had a worse record, but won some huge lucrative races.

Jeff can be reached on the message board as "jecarm", or via email at jecarm@aol.com.

Winning small

I made mention of Acquarella a while ago as a lower level racer that I admired.  As of today, he has notched 14 victories, only one of which is GR1.  His lack of production at the highest levels has not lowered my respect for him in the least however.

I was looking over his racing history and noticed that in Stakes races, he has an impeccable 13-9-2-1 record, including 5 wins in his last 6 outings.  Even though they are ungraded races, if that kind of production doesn't get you excited, nothing will.

In addition, his PSR's seem to be getting better with age, with a 114, 101, and 103 in his last three races; at age 6 no less!  All three of those races were at his newly discovered pet distance of 7.5F.

I love GR1 wins as much as the next guy, but if you've got a good horse that can't win the big races, send them to me.  I'll take as many Acquarella's as I can get.

Very interesting

Blank KD was a pretty terrible racer.  She was a slow starter with poor speed who finished better than 5th only once in her entire 13 race career.  So why did I keep her as a broodmare?

Because, for a mare, she is a true freak stamina-wise and I figured she would match well with my distance-oriented stallions.

She had her first foal in 2019 (sire - Refractor), a colt named Agent Zero, and his AR is very interesting.

He is a slow starter out of the gate, always comes from far back, and doesn't have much speed.  Check, check, check.  On the plus side, he has a long peak (so it's possible he could be bad for a long time.)

Throw in the fact that he simply will not tolerate dirt, and you've got all the ingredients of a major disappointment.

It'll be a long wait, but I'm gonna have to hold on to Agent Zero because he's very interesting.

Otsego Insider Archive

Given that we are starting a new season, and we all have new 2yo horses to break our hearts (or perhaps fill us with joy), I thought it was appropriate to highlight an Insider article from January 2011.

Love / Hate Relationship

Stable Spotlight - Absinthe Acres

Operating since December 22, 2008 at 5:09 pm (according to the Forum), Absinthe Acres is owned by the opinionated Lois Yager.  I say that with respect, because I always admire a person who is willing to say how they feel.

Absinthe has 98 stalls, 16 of which are occupied by breeding mares.  She has no stallions at this time.

Lois' favorite horse is the 4yo filly Final Velocity.  She had a splendid year in 2018, with a record of 9-5-2-1-1 and $1.3M in earnings.  She finished 3rd in a tough field in the Breeders Cup Mile, an accomplishment of which Lois is particularly proud.

Lois can be seen regularly on the forum as "Lmaris" or can be reached via email at ms_lois_1@yahoo.com.

This year... I'm paying attention...

I haven't had a horse in the Kentucky Derby since Crossbones finished 3rd back in 2014.  Acquarella, who I own now, ran in 2016, but he was running under the colors of Establos Del Castillo at that time.

My lack of participation in this race has been attributable to two factors; a dearth of talent in most years and scheduling inattentiveness in others.  

As mentioned in a previous article, in 2019 I have at least two, and possibly up to four horses that may have the right stuff for this race.  Getting them in the right qualifiers, so they have the necessary points is the tricky part that I have screwed up in the past.

The four horses, Rico Suave, Helikaon, Infinity World, and Lapsus, need wins in 8F+ dirt races, so I don't want to run them head-to-head.  However, there are only so many appropriate races in the short time coming up to the Derby, making it conceivable that I may have to double up here and there.

Helikaon opened up the festivities by placing 3rd in the G3 Holy Bull Stakes last weekend.  He had the lead coming down the stretch, but incredibly, he eased up to effort level 2 and watched as two horses streamed past him at the finish.

Rico Suave and Lapsus are both scheduled to run this weekend.  We expect Rico to win his race, but have a little less confidence in Lapsus due to the fact that he is running against older racers, with Round Ron and Powder Keg being particularly concerning.  

Infinity World will wait another week due to rest concerns.

I've got my fingers crossed.

The season begins...

At first glance, my record of 7-2-1-1 seems acceptable.  But in reality, it is quite disappointing.

French Twist came up with an easy win in a small field, and Acquarella won his fourth race in his last five starts.  I fully expected both of these vets to come away with victories.

My unhappiness starts with a 2nd place finish by the recently acquired Sisqo Falls and a 3rd place finish by Kentucky Derby hopeful Helikaon.  Both horses were in position to win their races, but indifference in the last half-furlong cost them victories.  I was especially displeased with Helikaon, who has the tools to win the Kentucky Derby, but first must qualify.  Losing this race was not in the plan.

Na'vi ran poorly, falling way back; then was unable to mount enough of a comeback to get anywhere near the board.

Most discouraging of all were the lackadaisical efforts by Jackhammer and Battlestar.  Arguably my top two horses, they appeared anything but that.  Both will get a month off, then reassessed, with the early opinion being that Battlestar will stick to 9F going forward.

Stable Spotlight - Jerebko Stables

Operating from Finland, Jerebko Stables have been with Photo Finish since 2014, qualifying him as a rookie player... or does it?  Owner Lasse Jarvinen confided that he also managed the defunct Lattune Stables way back in PF's inaugural year.  Regardless of whether you classify him as a rookie or a veteran, it's good to have him back.

Lasse's family has owned many horses in the past of the harness racing variety, and had great success with the #2 horse in all of Europe in 1988.

He currently has 16 stalls with no stallions and a single broodmare. His favorite horse is the superstar Metalloid of Rainbow and he is anxious to see if the 4yo bay colt can repeat his remarkable 2018 performance.

In it's brief history, Jerebko's top accomplishment is the 2nd place finish by Tribal Desert in the 2018 Breeders Cup Filly/Mare Turf.  

Lasse can be reached via email at lasse.jarvinen@korpela.fi or on the PF messenger as "Jerebko Stables".

Finally scratched that itch.

I have wanted Quake for a long time.  I can't even really explain why.  She even inspired me to write an article about her in the Insider.  Here is the link... Quake article.

Anyway, I tried to acquire her from KRF and was unsuccessful.  A short time later, I was flabbergasted when I realized I whiffed again when Bally Doyle bought her in an unpublicized sale.  I figured she would reside with Amanda for a long time, so I shrugged my shoulders and forgot about her.

I happened to be on the Photo Finish site yesterday and noticed that Amanda was online.  I flipped over to the sales page (as is my custom) and quickly spotted that Quake had been put up for auction. 

Quickly, and with fingers trembling, I sent Amanda a PM telling her that I wanted Quake.  She promptly removed her from the sales page (luckily there no bids in the few minutes she was available) and worked out a deal with me.  I had been trying to find a new home for Nova, so we quickly came to terms.  She gets a miler with world class speed and I get a horse that I have wanted for years.  

Ahhh... that feels good.

What did I learn last season?

After several months off, most of us probably have forgotten the particular nuances of each horse.  

How many days off is optimum for this filly?  What is my colt's pet distance?  What early season races did I have earmarked?  Was this mare gonna try for longer distances or shorter?  Did she fade in that last half furlong at 9, or didn't she?  Can't remember...

Sometimes you develop a strategy that just kinda evolves in your head and during the season, it's easy to remember these plans from week to week.  After 4 months off though, things get a little hazy, don't they?

In the old days, I would just look at the horses race record and see what kind of placings and PSR's they put up at particular distances, then follow the plan.  If a horse hoisted a 105 at 8F, I would assume that was pretty good and I'd do it again.  Nowadays, I spend more time looking at the horses attribute numbers and making my entry decisions based on those.  I can look at a horse and perhaps see that the previous 105 PSR was hollow and not a sustainable result at that distance.

Because I feel the numbers are all important, I record them on a spreadsheet after every race.  While making my entries, I crosscheck against the attribute numbers to see if I'm still on the right track.

I acquired Na'vi from Foxies Lodge because I admired the horse and his impeccable breeding.  He had done fairly well at 16F with four consecutive 2nd place finishes.  If I was unfamiliar or uninterested in his base numbers, I might be inclined to keep running him at two miles, after all PSR's of 102, 102, 103,and 98 plus finishing 2nd every time is encouraging, right?  Except, his Stamina number is 70.  His outstanding Kick has kept him competitive at 16F, but he's not a 2-miler.  I'm not really sure exactly what he is because his speed is a little low for a classic style racer, but I know he's not a 2-miler.  He'll never beat a horse like Le Chiffre or Jackhammer at 16F.  No way.

The point of this ramble is that keeping track of the numbers for each horse, race after race, makes entry decisions much easier, and you don't have to remember as much stuff.  It takes some effort though, and many of you will not want to take the time.  That's cool.  It just makes things a little easier for guys like me...

Let's race!

Stable Spotlight - Smokey's Stable

Another grizzled veteran of Photo Finish is Chris Campbell, owner of Smokey's Stable, which has been in operation since 2003.

Not as flamboyant as some of us, Chris has always been quietly competent.  I personally have had many dealings with Smokey's and have always found him to be, if anything, overly generous,

He currently has 91 stalls, which includes 18 broodmares, and 2 stallions.  Both stallions, Kostya, and Big Easy, had short mid-career stints at Otsego Farms.  (Which reminds me Chris, put me down for a spot with Big Easy.  I'm keeping Nova and he'll be a good match.)

His favorite horse is Isca's Dawn, who was home bred.  She was a Kentucky Derby winner and picked up two Breeders Cup Turf victories as well, so his affection appears well-placed.

Chris can be reached at email address christophercampbell66@gmail.com or via the PF messenger as "smokey".

Did I land a big one?

While scanning the available talent at Endless Vista, I found a horse that interested me greatly.  Currently known as HIP 18937, her breeding was breathtaking and simply too good to pass up.

The yearling filly was sired by Point Given, out of Azeri, and though neither parent has had extensive success as a breeder, you have to assume that the potential for a great racer is there.

The top earning offspring of Point Given is Point Taken, a classic type racer who had career earnings of $6.5M over a lengthy 87-race career.  

Azeri's top producing offspring was Zach Attack, sired by my own War Machine.  ZA had earinings of $2.3M in 34 races, mostly at 8F.

I haven't seen her AR yet, and I can't wait to analyze it upon her admission into my stable.  She is a handsome dark chesnut, who projects at a massive 17.3h.  One encouraging fact regarding her potential is that she was bred by Endless Vista, and is not just a poor horse that was cast off by another stable.  

Stable Spotlight - Bally Doyle

Bally Doyle is one of the true veteran stables here at Photo Finish, having been established in 2003.

Owner Amanda O'Brien is also one of the most involved participants having over 6600 forum comments to her credit.  

Bally Doyle would be described as one of the larger stables with 157 stalls, which includes 10 stallions and 22 broodmares.

Amanda was noncommittal as far as her favorite horse is concerned.  She mentioned her first home bred G1 winner, Skim The Hill, as a sentimental favorite.  Also, her pair of brilliant fillies, Dancing Delaware and Case Closed (both of whom I have secretly coveted for years).  Her colt Reichenbach Falls, who had plenty of success, and her current colt Olympia, a UAE Derby and Hong Kong Vase winner, both rank high on her list as well.

Amanda is very approachable for advice and can be reached via email at ballydoyle01@gmail.com, or via the PF private messenger as "ladycat".

Going on 9 years!

The Otsego Insider has been in publication since October 2006.  

My interest in writing ebbs and flows depending on many factors.  Are we racing or it is the off season?  How active is the PF forum?  How busy am I in real life?

I've had months where I've written as many as 21 stories, and I've had months that I've published nary a one.  In a particularly prolific period back in 2007, I cranked out 50 in three months.

Many of the articles are about my own stable, so I can see how they would not interest the average reader.  But there are also many hidden gems that may give some insight on how things work in this crazy pastime that we all enjoy.

I go back and review some of the stories occasionally and I am amazed at how some of my opinions have changed over the years, and how bad some of my predictions about my own horses have proven to be.  I have hit the nail on the head once in a while also...

When I write consistently, I usually get 200+ page views per week.  As I write this, I've had 274 in the past 7 days.  Not too bad really.

I try to keep it fresh, but if anyone has any ideas, I'm open.  I was thinking about some kind of stable spotlight, where we can learn a little bit about each stable and their owner.  I think it has been done before... many years ago, but it may be time to resurrect that practice so we can all get to know one another again.

And... don't forget to leave some comments.  I love to hear everyone's opinion.