Racer Report Cards - 2009

With the season almost complete, I've looked at each of my racers and graded them on how they've performed this year.

All of them, with the exception of Big Easy and Nova will be returning as racers next season.

Grades are as follows:


BIG EASY (9-2-1-3 $300,000) - We knew when we acquired him that this would be his last season before retiring to stud, so we weren't expecting miracles. We hoped however, that he would perform competently and with dignity. He has definitely done that.
GRADE: B

DOOMSDAY (9-2-4-3 $310,000) - After a sub-par 2008, we thought he might not even be racing at Otsego Farms this year. He has come through with flying colors though by hitting the board in every race. Based on his resurgence, another racing season beckons for Doomsday in 2010.
GRADE: A

KING OF THE SEA (6-2-2-0 $340,000) - King was beset by injury and chronic soreness in 2009. In spite of that, he performed at a high level in most races. He'll be back in 2010, but will be limited to 6 hand-picked races.
GRADE: B

NOVA (8-3-1-1 $547,500) - Nova had another solid season with all 100+ power-speed numbers with the exception of one at 99. She stretched out to 8.5 and 9 furlongs and performed very well at the longer distances. Retiring at season end to become a broodmare.
GRADE: B+

SITIO ESTRATEGICO (4-1-1-1 $67,800) - Mid-season pickup who performed well in four races. A Grade 3 router who can perform well if placed appropriately. Racing again in 2010.
GRADE: B

UNION JACK (10-3-4-2 $1,415,000) - Jack was his usual solid self in 2009. While not a match for the very top horses, he can handle almost anyone else. He'll be competing again next season as a 5yo.
GRADE: A

CANDLE OF LIFE (6-0-0-3 $28,000) - This horse has ability, we're convinced of that. He's not Grade 1 material, but we think he can pay his way, therefore he'll be back next season.
GRADE: C-

KID FLASH (7-2-2-2 $272,900) - The Kid was very consistent in 2009. He may move up to an occasional Grade 1 race in 2010 after showing good speed that topped out at a 113 PSR. Has been in-the-money in 11 of his last 12 races.
GRADE: B+

SEVEN MEMORY (3-1-0-1 $48,500) - We liked this fellow so much, that we sold stable favorite Lady Katherine to make room for him. He is illustriously bred, by Memcay out of Deja vu and has shown speed and courage in his brief stay at Otsego. He'll be back.
GRADE: B+

STOWAWAY (3-2-1-0 $92,400) - Another mid-season acquisition that looks to good to be true. This horse has great talent and we were very surprised at being able to get him so economically. We see him as a Grade 1 sprinter/miler next season.
GRADE: A

BIG SLICK (6-0-2-1 $47,200) - This horse came into the season with a "can't miss" tag on him. He looked superb in his first race, finishing 2nd in a field of 19. He was injured in his next race and has not been the same since. Our trainers say he has the tools, so we'll give him a long rest and he'll come back as a 3yo in March 2010.
GRADE: D

MISTER FANTASTIC (1-0-0-0 $0) - We gave this late maturing colt one start, just to see where he was at. It was all we needed to decide to shelve him until 2010. We hope he'll surprise us next season.
GRADE: Incomplete

PSR Update

With the statistics for 74 races in the books, here is the breakdown of Power Speed Ratings for Otsego Farms so far this season.

To date, 62% of all starts have resulted in a PSR of 90 or higher. Incredibly, 34% of starts have been over 100. The record in the 25 races with PSR's over 100 is 25-10-8-4.

PSR	RACES	PERCENT
120+	3	4%
110-119	6	8%
100-109	16	22%
90-99	21	28%
80-89	9	12%
70-79	7	9%
60-69	5	7%
50-59	3	4%
40-49	4	5%
30-39	0	0%
20-29	0	0%
10-19	0	0%
Below 0	0	0%

In a side note, Nova recently had a 99 PSR. That is the first PSR of less than 100 she has had in over 2 years.

She will be retiring at the end of this season and joining the ranks of Otsego broodmares. She will initially pair with the outstanding miler Big Easy. This looks like a tremendous match. The introduction of Big Easy's turf abilities may broaden the foals chances to compete on both surfaces. Nova has run strictly on dirt in her career.

If this pairing produces a colt, the name will be Big Bang. If it is a filly, it will be Quasar.

Change in plans....

We had thought to retire Doomsday at season end. But, this fellow has performed so well this season, he has earned himself another go around.

Last year, while I was still trying to run him in accordance with his AR to some degree, he had a record of 11-0-2-2. I came within a hair's width of selling him on a couple occasions.

This year, I decided to formally and permanently drop him to Grade 3 races at 7 furlongs or less and he has responded magnificently. With his win today, his 2009 record to date is 9-2-4-3 with earnings of $310,000. That is enough to earn him a stall for next season.

Our other racer in weeks 43-44 was Stowaway, the white 3yo we purchased earlier this year. Also winning today, Stowaway has a record of 3-2-1-0 since he joined our stable. We are very high on this horse and plan on stepping him up to higher grades next season.

Broodmare available

Monsoon has been made available via the sales page at the BUY NOW price of $150,000.

She is by Storm Cat out of Kazzia.

Monsoon has some attributes that lead me to believe that she may produce competitive sprinters if matched with an appropriate stud. They are:

1. Keeps going, doesn't let up.
2. Very consistent.
3. Front runner.
4. Good acceleration.
5. Breaks well.

The entire AR can be viewed at the sale page.

Monsoon produced a nice foal for me last season with Predator as the stud. Frankly, I was happy enough with the foal to keep Monsoon and breed her again, but I have decided to retire Nova and move her into the breeding operation. That makes Monsoon expendable as I only have plans for three broodmares, and they will be Nova, Shattered Record, and Shadowcat.

Otsego Farms T-Shirt hits the street!

You may have seen the link on the right to the Otsego Farms store. It was put together as a bit of a joke although the products are real enough.

My wife surprised me for my birthday by buying a T-shirt and a sweatshirt with the Otsego Farms logo. Needless to say, they are now my favorite pieces of clothing. That's me modeling the shirt. Oops, looks like I didn't get my face in the picture. Lucky for you.

New race card - An opinion

I think I like it.

No, I'm sure that I like it.

The old system needed to be overhauled for the following two reasons:

1. Unrealistic in that you had no idea who might show up for what race.
2. Tedious for Laurie, who had to manually process all of the scratch/transfer conditions.

The blind card led to several problems, the most severe of which was the myriad conditions that Laurie had to deal with. As owners searched for the small fields, the scratch conditions got very complex and tangled. I'm sure Laurie had to revisit each race several times, wrestling with the logic and trying to finalize the field. Now that the fields are open for scrutiny, the scratch instructions will be limited to primarily track conditions, lightening Lauries load considerably.

Also, the blind card could cause consternation for owners expecting an appropriate field for a G3 race only to find an unexpected ringer entered in the small pursed race. With the open card, if you see a horse you don't want to face, you've got time to reschedule.

Plus, It's how it's done in real life and I'm always a fan of realism.

So....I'm liking it.

Summer vacation?

Grass to cut. Kids home from school. Nice weather for running. I could give you a million reasons why I haven't been writing this summer.

I'm sure that everyone who got into the habit of checking the site periodically has given up after seeing nothing new for 3 weeks.

I'll try to get back on track. I may not have time to post every other day over the summer, but I'll be posting at least twice a week.

Later this weekend, I may have an offer available for a broodmare and a racer soon to turn stud. I'll not have room for either horse next season, so they will be offered for sale. Stay tuned.

Race Results for Weeks 33-34

No wins this week, but three out of four racers hit the board, so we're content.

Doomsday extended his streak of top 3 finishes to 7 with a 3rd place in the Star Kingdom Stakes. He broke fairly well and stayed in the third position throughout the race. Felix of France from Chiknsmack took the honors.

Newcomer Seven Memory also finished 3rd in his race, the 7.5 furlong Phar Lap Stakes. He slipped up a bit in the final half furlong, so perhaps we'll shorten him up in his next race. The Majestic from Caledonia was the winner.

Only thirteen days of rest and some improbable globe-hopping didn't stop Port Pirie's A Bus from setting a world record en route to an easy win in the Juddmonte International Stakes. Union Jack finished 2nd by a wide margin over Taj Mahal from Akuma no Heya. Union Jack has a season record of 7-1-4-1 and may slide down permanently to Gr2 and Gr 3 races. Our attempts to avoid the top-tiered horses have consistently failed at the Gr1 races, leading to much frustration.

Just as he began to make his move, Big Easy ran into some traffic and couldn't respond in time to finish in the top three. He finished 4th in the Salvator Mile, making it just the 5th time in 42 career races that he has failed to hit the board. Fantasy Flight from Under the Weeping Moon used a tremendous kick in the last 2 furlongs to grab the victory.

So...things change, allright?

Just days after mentioning that I was probably through with horse transactions for the year, Otsego Farms pulled the trigger on two more deals.

Lady Katherine, our 3yo black filly, has been sold to Woodbury Stables. LK has solid tools and the potential for a long career. Even more exciting is her potential as a future broodmare. We were actually very attached to Lady Katherine and eventually planned on keeping her as a 3rd broodmare along with Nova and Shattered Record.

However, when we noticed that Seven Memory, a speedy black colt by Memcay out of Deja Vu was available, provisions had to be made immediately and Lady Katherine was the horse that didn't fit into my immediate short-term plans

While I'm sorry to see LK go, we are thrilled to have acquired Seven Memory from Moose Hollow. His parentage alone is exciting, and while we know that does not guarantee success, it's hard to fathom an offspring from those two champions not being a good racer.

Seven's current record is a solid 6-1-2-1. He has raced three times this season with a record of 3-1-2-0 and has posted speed scores of 108, 95, and 69.

An exciting day here at Otsego Farms. This will probably be the last transaction we're involved with this season.

That sounds familiar. Where have I heard that before?

Race Results for Weeks 31-32

I took a couple chances that did not work out this week. In hindsight, I wish I had just stuck to the strategy that has paid off so well up to this point.

King of the Sea has performed very well this season, so in spite of my resolve to enter him in lower graded and pursed races this year, I splurged and entered him in the Gr1 Whitney Handicap. Unfortunately, he wasn't quite up to that level of competition today, finishing 5th. Braveheart, the courageous router from FDL was the winner with Olmo Dorato's Beamington finishing second. Superstar Lazy Loper from Bonai, coming back on short rest finished a disappointing 6th.

Candle of Life also stepped up a notch to the Gr2 Jim Dandy Stakes and was actually in the running until a horrendous fade in the last furlong dropped him back to 10th. Personally Majestic from Stonewall Stables took the honors with the win. It will be back to Gr3 and Gr4 races at 8 furlongs for CoL in the future.

In her last race for Otsego Farms, Lady Katherine finished 5th in the Honorable Miss Stakes. We don't normally enter younger horses in the variable age races, but we expected a softish field in this race with it's modest $75,000 purse. LK was the only 3yo in the field and didn't look as strong as the competition. The speedy Ab-Daledigaeth from Bally Doyle was the winner in record time.

Nova, after running primarily at 6-7 furlongs since she was a 2yo, has won her last 2 races at 8.5 furlongs. Our trainers have said all along that 8.5f was her best distance, but after fading regularly as a younger horse, we gravitated towards the shorter races. Now fully mature and at peak strength, it appears that she'll run as a miler for the rest of the season. This weekend, she won the Chula Vista Handicap in track record time. Hell Hath No Fury from Snowbank finished 2nd.

For the week then, a record of 4-1-0-0.

PSR Update

Stowaway recorded an amazing 120 PSR and Kid Flash posted a 113 in last weeks action. Union Jack had a rather disappointing run at 92. Big Slick checked in at 90, and Sitio Estrategico had a 75 in a long 2 mile race in which he labored in the final furlong.

Overall, 64% of our starts have resulted in PSR's of 90 or higher, and 38% have exceeded 100. Stats through 50 races are given below.

PSR	RACES	PERCENT
120+	2	4%
110-119	5	10%
100-109	12	24%
90-99	13	26%
80-89	6	12%
70-79	4	8%
60-69	3	6%
50-59	2	4%
40-49	3	6%
30-39	0	0%
20-29	0	0%
10-19	0	0%
Below 0	0	0%

Turnover higher for OFRS in 2009

Perhaps it's the new sale system. Maybe my transactions are up this year because it's just so darn easy to buy and sell a horse.

We're just past the halfway mark this year and I've already bought 3 horses and sold 3 horses.

That is pretty unusual for me. In the past, the majority of my transactions have taken place in the off-season.

With the new sales system though, you can transform your stable in a surprisingly short period of time.

The three horses I picked up:

1. Sitio Estrategico - 4yo male stayer. Very solid PSR's. Grade 3 at 10-16 furlongs.
2. Candle of Life - 3yo male miler. Has the tools. Grade 3 at 8-10 furlongs.
3. Stowaway - 3yo male sprinter. Has 100+ PSR ability. Grade 2-3 at 5-7 furlongs.

The three horses I sold:

1. Night Thrasher - 2yo colt. Has a couple flaws. I didn't see a ton of upside.
2. Firefighter - 3yo colt. Pretty AR. Looks like he may have some potential.
3. Dragon Flyer - 2yo filly. Sold her unraced, which is risky. A few holes in her AR.

The horses I bought are not grizzled veterans by any means, but I did gain maturity by making these moves and got myself three solid racers who will win money if appropriately placed.

I'm probably done with transactions this season because I really like the structure of my stable right now. However, if I decide to retire Nova at the end of the year (50/50 bet right now), I would have to move a broodmare later in the season. I'm only keeping three, and they would be Nova, Shattered Record, and probably Monsoon.

Race Results for Weeks 29-30

The one race that I thought was a sure thing turned out to be the only race that was a failure this week.

The 6/4 favorite in the Sunset Handicap, Union Jack did not hit the board, finishing 5th in a field of nine. Brilliant, the 5yo male from Under The Weeping Moon was the winner in record time. Union Jack carried a race-high 125 lbs. which may have contributed to his lackluster performance.

Kid Flash won his second consecutive race by taking the 7 furlong Hobartville Stakes. He grabbed the lead early in the race and never relinquished it. The Kid is maturing into a very reliable racer and is probably slated for a step up into some Grade One races in the future.

Big Slick faced off against his half-brother Elegant Tower from Goforwand Stables in the Illawarra Mercury 2yo Classic. He lead the race until the final furlong, when Elegant Tower took control of the race and finished first. Big Slick finished second in his first try on grass. He now has a career record of 4-0-2-1.

We decided to try 16 furlongs on for size with Sitio Estrategico in an Allowance race. He slipped to the rear, then slowly moved up through the field to finish 3rd. He was never in the hunt for the lead, finishing 26 lengths behind the winner, True Ensign from Eureka Racing Stables. Based on his performance and his condition at race end, we suspect that 12 furlongs will be the norm for Sitio in the future.

A 5.5 furlong Maiden race was Stowaway's first contest with Otsego Farms. He went right to the lead, as planned, and easily held on to win. He's got speed and we expect him to try something in a Grade 2-3 next time out, perhaps in the 6-7 furlong range.

For the week, a record of 5-2-1-1.

Tough race choices...

Union Jack is a great horse. He's just not a superstar.

It pains me to withhold him from races like this weekends Diamond Stakes with it's $1.35M purse. But I've come to the conclusion that as good as UJ is, he's just not quite at that pinnacle of talent necessary to compete with horses like A Bus, Lazy Loper, and Perfect Bell.

And, since our current entry and travel rules allow horses to globe-hop to an unrealistic degree, there is no possibility of avoiding those superstars at every big-purse race. So, horses like Union Jack will have forgo the really lucrative races and must be satisfied occupying the second rung of the ladder.

That is my rationale for entering UJ in the Gr2 12 furlong Sunset Handicap. He's up against a good field, but he has a much better shot at a victory, or even hitting the board, in this race.

Another entry that made me pause was Big Slick in the Illawara Mercury 2yo Classic on turf.

BS is definitely superior in dirt, but after facing fields of 20, 19, and 20 in his first three races, I decided that a change of surface might be advisable. He is at least adequate on turf, so hopefully that won't hinder him. The idea is to try to avoid another massive field. That strategy appears to have paid off as there are currently 9 horses scheduled to participate.

Interestingly, Big Slick will face off against his half-brother, Elegant Tower from Gorforwand in this race. Currently, both horses sport identical records of 3-0-1-1.

Kid Flash, Sitio Estrategico, and newcomer Stowaway are also scheduled to run this weekend.

By the way, see anything familiar about that picture of Union Jack?

It is the profile used in the Otsego Farms logo.

OFRS acquires 3yo colt

Stowaway, the white 3yo colt from History's Own Stable has become the newest member of the Otsego racing team.

By Swaleaway out of Show And Tell, Stowaway has a career record of 4-0-1-1. He has shown some speed with PSR's of 107, 84, 42, and 102 in his four races.

We are very happy to get this fellow. The bidding was going back and forth between us and Olmo Dorato. I meant to check the status before the 12pm deadline today, but got tied up on other business and did not get back to the sales page until 12:30pm. I was relieved to see that Ettore did not up the ante any further and we were able to acquire Stowaway for $310,000.

Once we've had a chance to study his AR and watch his previous races, we'll determine exactly what niche he'll fill in our race strategy.

Race Results for Weeks 27-28

Yet another quiet week for us here at Otsego Farms. We are trying to concentrate on adequate rest for our horses so we had just two racers this week, after having just one last week.

Doomsday was entered in the Gr2 Expressway Stakes. The grade was a little above our plans for him, but we thought the modest purse of $125,000 would discourage top competition. Doomsday was a bit sluggish and did not go to the lead as is his habit.

He settled into third place and stayed there the entire race for the show finish. Handsome Problem and Handsome Politics, a pair of 3yo colts from Hopeful Farm finished the race 1-2.

Doomsday has a season record of 6-1-3-2.

Big Easy ran in the Gr2 Blamey Stakes. He ran his normal race, staying in mid-pack, then trying to take the lead in the final furlong. Snowbank's Lil Belle had different ideas though as she easily put off the challenge to finish first. Big Easy came in second and now has a season record of 6-2-1-2.

For the season, Otsego Farms stands at 45-9-12-9. I was aiming for around 105 races this year but am currently a little behind projection. Injuries have probably cost me 5 races thus far, and Mister Fantastic has been shelved for the season after showing that he is too immature to run this year. Those factors, along with our commitment to adequate rest will probably leave us in the 90-95 range for 2009.

Is it easier to win money on Turf?

In the Forum today, I mentioned that there seems to be many more turf races than there are dirt races. I've noticed this tendancy quite often in the past.

As I said, over the four week period of weeks 27-30, there are 56 turf races and only 27 on dirt. This is not just an aberration, this turf/dirt ratio has strongly favored turf surfaces for the past several seasons.

My hypothesis was, it must be harder for dirt horses to win purses because they are operating in larger fields. It makes sense. Fewer races, hence larger fields.

I checked all 43 races that we have run at Otsego Farms in 2009. Here is what I found:

TURF RACES - 21
AVG FIELD SIZE - 8.43

DIRT RACES - 22
AVG FIELD SIZE - 11.37

Because almost half of my string prefers dirt, I have actually run more dirt races in spite of their relative scarcity. Not surprisingly, the dirt fields are substantially larger, just as I suspected they would be.

Of those 43 races, I have collected a check on 29 occasions. The breakdown is as follows:

TOTAL RACES - 43
EARNED PURSE ON TURF - 17
EARNED PURSE ON DIRT - 12

So, I have earned a purse in a turf race 81% of the time. I have earned a purse in a dirt race 55% of the time.

Seems like I am right on target with my thinking. Because of the plethora of turf races, the fields are smaller and the purses are easier to come by.

There are obviously many other possible explanations for the way my numbers look. It's possible that another stable may have substantially different results with their horses. But the idea seems logical to me so I'm going to assume that this phenomenon is accurate.

Superstar horses are going to win their money regardless of whether they shine on turf or dirt. But if you have a middle-of-the-road talent....it's better if he's a turfer.

War Machine booked solid

The 2006 Horse of the Year and American Triple Crown Winner, War Machine, is fully booked for both the 2009 and 2010 breeding seasons.

Limited to just 5 pairings per year, reservations were limited to one per stable per season on a first come first served basis. The 5th and final spot for 2010 was filled today.

We are excited that his first crop of youngsters will hit the track next season. Included in that group is our chestnut filly out of Dragon Flyer, Rogue.

Rogue will run at classic distances and also likes dirt and turf, making her a touch more versatile that War Machine, who vastly preferred dirt. Being out of Dragon Flyer makes Rogue a half-sister to another Otsego stalwart, Union Jack.

Comic Book Names - continued

My homebreds and unnamed acquired horses are given names of Marvel and DC Superheroes and Supervillians. Here is the character who inspired another Otsego racer.

DOOMSDAY

This mindless alien engine of destruction manhandled the entire roster of DC Superheroes then went toe-to-toe with The Man of Steel and left him dying in the arms of Lois Lane.

The famous Death of Superman storyline revolved around the character Doomsday. Of course, the powers of our yellow sun eventually resurrected Superman.

Injury bug strikes FDL, Olmo Dorato

While reviewing the results from the races this weekend, I could not help but notice the rash of injuries that struck my friends Finlay from FDL Lodge and Ettore from Olmo Dorato.

As I scanned the results, I noticed an injury in the first race to the 3yo colt Easy Cee, Ettore's new acquisition. On the very same PF race day, June 14th, in the 2 mile Queen's Vase, Ettore also had another 3yo colt, Gorad Gomel, suffer an injury.

Incredibly, just 3 days later on June 17th, Smartly Dubai also went down to injury. These were not minor injuries either, as you can see below:

• Easy Cee - 18 days
• Gorad Gomel - 24 days
• Smartly Dubai - 36 days

I scrolled down through the results more carefully, fearful that I would find yet another injury for Olmo Dorato,

Instead, I discovered that Finlay, not to be outdone, had incurred no less than 4 injuries this week. To make matters worse, three of the four were lengthy, as you can see:

• Princely Status - 23 days
• Zephyrbab - 7 days
• Double Dome - 29 days
• Excellent Son - 31 days

For the week there were a total of 13 injuries, 7 of which were suffered by either Olmo Dorato or FDL. Very bad luck gentleman.