Can you handle the Truth? Revisited.

There are some wonderful people involved in Photo-Finish. I am fortunate to call many of them friends, even though we've never actually met face-to-face.. You know who you are.

There are also some people that I can't actually call friends, but who's opinions and PF acumen I respect.

Then there are the chosen few that annoy me. Believe me, you gotta try hard to find your way into this category because I am really just about as nice a guy as you can find.

The guy/girl from Pacific Belles fits into the last category. Against all logic he/she continues to jab at me concerning breeding. His/her logic is flawed, his/her humor is tedious, and he/she just won't leave it alone. I called him/her out in the forum yesterday after he/she brought this tired old subject up yet again, and my post was promptly edited out by Laurie. I think it was my use of the terms "moron" and "idiot" that got my post erased.

Anyway, that fool keeps spewing his/her misinformation about breeding so I thought I would re-publish a post from October 2008. It may be of some interest to newer PF members or others who never saw it.

REPUBLISHED FROM OTSEGO INSIDER OCTOBER 2008

These fantasy horses are very complex critters.

When a new foal is born, we are presented with a short AR which gives us rudimentary information about the new arrival. That information, plus what we can glean from studying the history of the sire and dam, is all we have to plan the new horses future. Later, we gain more information by watching the horse race. Eventually, we develop a clear picture of the horses abilities and shortcomings. Sometimes this revelation comes quickly, sometimes it doesn't.

As I said, these fantasy horses are very complex critters. The small amount of information on the AR camouflage's the fact that there are many, many facets to the abilities and disabilities of each horse. Here is a list of the attributes of each horse in the Photo-Finish game.

Break Speed
Early Speed
Top Speed
Long Stamina
Ratability
Running on Lead
Handles Traffic
Courage
Soundness
Curve Ability
Durability
Consistency
Weight Stress Point
Begin Peak Age
End Peak Age
Peak % at Age 3.3
Running Style
Acceleration
Hard Dirt Ability
Soft Dirt Ability
Mud Ability
Firm Turf Ability
Soft Turf Ability

I imagine that many of these rating are intertwined when it comes to the horse performance on the track. For instance, a Poor Break Speed and the Far Back Running Style, may spell doom for a 5-furlong sprinter even if he has the most illustrious parents. Conversely, if all of the proper attributes fall correctly into place, you can have a superstar from relatively humble origins.

The attributes for each foal are determined by a mathematical breeding program devised by Photo-Finish Founder Laurie Brown. Each attribute for the new foal is determined in the following manner:

25% probability of using the sire rating
25% probability of using the dam rating
25% probability of using the average of the sire and dam rating
25% random probability

Some Photo-Finish participants adhere to the belief that breeding is pure luck. As anyone can plainly see, the random probability is limited to 25%. Therefore 75% of the foal attributes are determined solely by the sire and dam. Unequivocally, this means that it is better to use the best quality sire and dam you can and to trust in statistical probability to produce a high quality foal.

However as shown above, there are many attributes to be determined for each horse and it is possible that poor ratings in key areas can torpedo a foal's future on the track. These poor ratings can be a result of a random anomaly or because both parents had a common weakness that manifests itself in the foal. Those who trust in "pure luck" and pick poor studs or severely mismatched breeding pairs are statistically more apt to fail.

That is a fact that cannot be disputed.