Miscellaneous stuff that has crossed my mind in the last 24 hours

Who is the best two-year old out there right now? Hands down it's Rogue Day (Lager Beer x Scream Day) from Firstholme Racing. This horse is a equine wrecking ball. As Qui-Gon Jinn would say, his midi-chlorians are off the charts. Expect BIG things from this fellow. He is the chosen one.

I bought a horse today.  I'm not sure why; just one of those knee-jerk reactions.  I saw something I liked and the price was right at $20,000 so... KA-BAM...Buy Now Baby!  In her comments on the sales page, Waikato mentioned that it would be a good horse for a newer stable.  Yup.  It sure would have been.  Anyway, 3yo filly Phelan Ready is now a member of Otsego Farms.

That win by Methy Bus in the 12F Canadian International over the legendary Capro Espiatorio was very satisfying.  I'm a big fan of Capro and his owner Ettore over al Olmo Dorato, and I generally root for both of them, but obviously not this time.  I had a feeling that Methy Bus would pull this one out, even though the oddsmakers made Capro a prohibitive favorite at 1/3.  Methy Bus has another year of racing in him, perhaps two, after which I am eyeing him very seriously as a stallion at Otsego Farms Stud.

Warp Factor Ten won this weekend, showing a nice spark in the last furlong to beat the KRF colt Express, who experienced an injury that may have played a part as well.  Express has a slightly higher top speed at the moment, but WFT's higher stamina and kick began to tell in that last furlong.  With a record of 6-2-1-1, WFT has been the most successful 2yo this season for Otsego Farms.

Year end house cleaning started this week at Otsego Farms.  Veterans Kayson and Machine Gun both hit the sales page and met reserve so they will be sold.  Additionally, 3yo's Captain Britain and School Boy Heart went as well and joining them on the way out was 2yo Darkhawk.  I still need to clear a couple spots, so production in the last 6 weeks of the season will be paramount for the horses that are on the bubble.

Astrapios begins to build legacy

It was just an allowance race at Shenandoah Downs, but 2yo colt Astrapios made a strong statement last weekend with a solid 2nd place finish at 16F.

"We paid big money for this fella based on his physical tools.  Frankly, we're relieved that he showed us that our confidence was not misplaced", Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber stated after the race.  Webber paused, then continued, "Relieved, but not surprised."

Astrapios finished 5 lengths behind filly phenom Cynic (Spartan Racing Stables), who now has a perfect record with three wins in three starts.

When asked if he envisioned Cynic being a roadblock on Astrapios' path to success, Webber said, "No.  She's a great filly, but I don't see her as a 16F horse down the road.  I think she'll settle in at 10-12F.  In the long-run, Astrapios will have her number at 2 miles."

He continued, "Machete's offspring are notorious for their quick maturation.  She's ahead of Astrapios physically at the moment.  It'll be a completely different story next season."

Crop Circles, Bigfoot, the Bermuda Triangle, and Quake.

Mysteries.  Unexplained phenomenon. 

Does the Loch Ness Monster really exist?  Can anyone explain the composition of Dark Matter?  And most perplexingly, why does KRF keep running the 4yo filly Quake at 16 furlongs?

Admittedly, Quake got her career off to a bang when she finished 4th at 16F in her debut.  Thus encouraged, KRF entered her in two more 2-mile races and Quake rattled off back-to-back wins, with impressive times of 3:20 and 3:19, no less.

Since then, Quake has come to earth.  She's had five more races, all at 16F, and finished 8,5,3,3,8.  To make matters worse, her times have regressed.  Quake has been unable to recapture her early magic, making me wonder why KRF insists on running her exclusively at 16F.

The simple truth is... this filly isn't a 16F horse.

Look at her running style.  I've watched several of her races and it's always the same.  She breaks well, takes an early lead, fades in the last 4-5 furlongs.  Wash.  Rinse.  Repeat.

Her HRF fantasy numbers don't support the theory that she is a stayer either.  Yes, she has an above-average Kick rating of 992, but her Stamina rating of 70 screams 9-11 furlongs.  She's got good speed, much better than most long distance horses.  Combine that with her front-running tendancies and you might even have some success at 8F.

I tried to make an offer on Quake a while ago, but never received a reply from Karie.  I even approached Ryan, trying to make an end run into KRF.  He said she'd never sell, so I quit trying.

It kills me to see this horse languish at 16F against the likes of Refractor, Pluto, Alphabet, and all the other real stayers.  She simply cannot beat the top tier horses at 2 miles.  Not gonna happen.  Ever.

My advice?  In this order...

1. Sell her to me, or
2. Run her at 8-11 furlongs, or
3. If she must be run at 16F, do it in Stakes races.

Horses at the crossroads...

As year-end beckons, the urge to clear out the stable becomes stronger and stronger.  There are a couple racers in particular who are very close to being sold...

3yo colt Schoolboy Heart was a impulse buy from Sunshine Stables a few months ago.  He has some decent tools, and is a later maturing type, so I thought he might be worth a chance.  His PSR's have been climbing in the last four races, 36, 71, 78, 89; but I'm thinking that he may have very limited potential.  Perhaps that stall would be more valuable if it was vacant?

3yo colt Art of Seduction was purchased last year as a long-term prospect.  His AR says sprinter, but his low speed / high stamina ratings scream stayer.  He has generally been more productive at longer distances, but he's not showing enough to keep me interested in this experiment.

Both of these colts are racing this weekend and their performances will dictate whether they are on the sales board or not by Sunday afternoon.

Additionally, I am contemplating making some kind of change with my broodmares.  I'd like to introduce some new blood, but it will require moving a mare or two to accommodate the prospective newcomers.  I've got Nebula joining the ranks at the end of the season, giving me 10 broodmares, which is exactly where I want to be numerically.

False Demon, Second Strike, and Shattered Record are mares that could potentially be sold or traded.  FD and SS were both acquired specifically to breed with stable icon War Machine, but the results have been less than expected so far.

I have scoured the available mares at Endless Vista, and I can only say that the pickings are mighty slim.  Prices on mares have gone through the roof in the past couple years, so a straight-up purchase may be out of the question as well.  A broodmare trade may be a possibility.  If anyone has any suggestions or offers, I'm willing to listen.