Otsego Farms owner makes Oscar appearance

Jim Webber, owner of Otsego Farms, was in Hollywood last weekend at the Dolby Theatre to attend the 85th annual Academy Awards ceremony.

Concerning this photo with longtime friend, actress Jennifer Garner, Webber stated, "Affleck toddled off to the boys room, so I took the opportunity to say hello to Jen." 

Can you handle the truth?

Since the breeding season is upon us, I thought this article might be timely.  This is a reprint from the Otsego Insider, Saturday, October 18th, 2008.

These fantasy horses are very complex critters.

When a new foal is born, we are presented with a short AR which gives us rudimentary information about the new arrival. That information, plus what we can glean from studying the history of the sire and dam, is all we have to plan the new horses future.

Later, we gain more information by watching the horse race. Eventually, we develop a clear picture of the horses abilities and shortcomings. Sometimes this revelation comes quickly, sometimes it doesn't.

As I said, these fantasy horses are very complex critters. The small amount of information on the AR camouflage's the fact that there are many, many facets to the abilities and disabilities of each horse.

Here is a list of the attributes of each horse in the Photo-Finish game.

• Break Speed
• Early Speed
• Top Speed
• Long Stamina
• Ratability
• Running on Lead
• Handles Traffic
• Courage
• Soundness
• Curve Ability
• Durability
• Consistency
• Weight Stress Point
• Begin Peak Age
• End Peak Age
• Peak % at Age 3.3
• Running Style
• Acceleration
• Hard Dirt Ability
• Soft Dirt Ability
• Mud Ability
• Firm Turf Ability
• Soft Turf Ability

I imagine that many of these rating are intertwined when it comes to the horse performance on the track. For instance, a Poor Break Speed and the Far Back Running Style, may spell doom for a 5-furlong sprinter even if he has the most illustrious parents. Conversely, if all of the proper attributes fall correctly into place, you can have a superstar from relatively humble origins.

The attributes for each foal are determined by a mathematical breeding program devised by Photo-Finish Founder Laurie Brown.

Each attribute for the new foal is determined in the following manner:

• 30% probability of using the sire rating
• 30% probability of using the dam rating
• 25% probability of using the average of the sire and dam rating
• 15% random probability

NOTE: The above used to be 25/25/25/25, but it was tweaked to reduce the random element somewhat.

Some Photo-Finish participants adhere to the belief that breeding is pure luck. As anyone can plainly see, the random probability is limited to 15%. Therefore 85% of the foal attributes are determined solely by the sire and dam. Unequivocally, this means that it is better to use the best quality sire and dam you can and to trust in statistical probability to produce a high quality foal.

However as shown above, there are many attributes to be determined for each horse and it is possible that poor ratings in key areas can torpedo a foal's future on the track. These poor ratings can be a result of a random anomaly or because both parents had a common weakness that manifests itself in the foal.

Those who trust in "pure luck" and pick poor studs or severely mismatched breeding pairs are statistically more apt to fail. That is a fact that cannot be disputed.

Who will shine brighter in 2017?

Steel Halo and Elu Thingol were a couple of the best 2yo colts last season.  

Steel Halo had and eye-popping record of 7-6-1-0 and his $4.2M in earnings more than doubled his top competition.  Elu Thingol (what kind of a name is that anyway?) ranked 10th on the list of 2yo racers with a record of 5-4-1-0 and 683K in winnings.

They were both extremely successful, no doubt about that.  But which one will have the better overall career?  Perhaps a comparison of their base numbers at the end of last season may shed some light?

	Gate	Early	Top	Long
	Speed	Speed	Speed	Stamina	Kick
Steel Halo	84	91	91	70	712
Elu Thingol	74	88	88	73	724

What can we infer from these numbers?  My interpretations are below.

In the case of Steel Halo, you can see that he is a very fast starter.  If you watch one of his races, I am very sure that you will see him bolt out of the gate.  He has good early and top speeds, and stamina that is suitable, perhaps, for up to 10F.  But I believe his kick rating may limit his viability to 9F, maybe even 8F.

Elu Thingol is a mediocre starter, which is OK for a racer with stamina of 73.  I believe his average kick rating may hold him back a bit, but he should be capable of at least 12F.  His speed ratings of 88/88 are right in line with what I'd expect for a 11-12F horse.

Keep in mind that these horses may not be mature yet and there may be some change in these numbers.  I have not seen their AR's, but based on what I see here, I would say that Elu Thingol is the more unique talent, and I would expect him to outperform Steel Halo going forward.

I was curious to see how these two stack up against War Machine at the end of his 2yo season in 2005:

	Gate	Early	Top	Long
	Speed	Speed	Speed	Stamina	Kick
Steel Halo	84	91	91	70	712
Elu Thingol	74	88	88	73	724
					.
War Machine	73	89	91	71	897

Good luck to Cold Steel / Steel Halo and Laurabelle / Elu Thingol in 2017.  We'll see who shines the brightest.

She ought to produced a Hell of a good foal...

On The Prowl is a horse that I have wanted for a long time.

Maybe it is the name that captured my fancy. They do that once in a while. In the past, I have been known to buy horses just on the strength of their name! Not the greatest strategy I have ever employed, I must admit.

Perhaps it was her breeding.  Dawn Patrol x Magnificat is a potent combination, and the fact that she is snow white nicely sets her apart nicely from the rank and file.

More than likely it was her early career exploits.  She came out of the gate winning; setting a World Record in her first start!  If that doesn't grab your attention, nothing will.

However it happened... I was transfixed early on and followed her for her entire career. 

Over the years, Chris Campbell, owner of Smokey's Stable, and I had a few brief discussions regarding On The Prowl, but nothing ever came of it until just recently.  Frankly, I'm not even sure how it came about.  We were just chatting via email one day and the next thing I knew, I had traded Shattered Record for On The Prowl, even up.

On paper it looks like a pretty even trade.  Shattered Record had a very respectable career and had ability on different surfaces and distances.  Plus, she is out of Lady's Secret, making her a granddaughter of the great Secretariat.  I was pretty attached to her, but even so, was glad to make the swap for a horse I had desired for many years.

So, best of luck to Chris with Shattered Record.  As for me, On The Prowl will start off by pairing up with War Machine.  Who else?  The foal, colt or filly, will be named Hella Good.

Just thinking aloud...

I was analyzing my racing roster today and came to the following conclusions:

1. It's entirely possible that 6yo male Refractor has peaked and may slip a bit this year.  His PSR's were still strong last season, but he seemed to have lost his nose for the wire.  Regardless of his performance this year, he will join War Machine, Nightwing, and Union Jack as a breeding stallion after the 2017 season.
2. 3yo filly Mona Lisa has the slowest Gate Speed in my racing string, which in my opinion, is the kiss of death for a sprinter.  She was uninspiring as a 2yo and will have a very short leash this season.  She is even slower at the start than Crossbones, who is notorious for bumbling and stumbing out of the gate.
3. Not counting the sprinters, newly acquired 4yo Acquarella may be the fastest horse in my stable.  This guy earned over $1,000,000 last season and was picked up for a song at the auction.
4. I gave up on 4yo filly Boudica after a couple disasterous early performances, even though I knew she was a late maturing type.  I had second thoughts and bought her back late last season for $100.  In six career races, she has never finished better than next-to-last, and yet, I feel that she will turn the corner and be a productive racer in 2017.  I figure I'll get my $100 back, at least.  :)
5. The slowest horse in my stable is 3yo colt Vinyasa, whose AR prophetically reads, "Unfortunately this horse does not have a lot of speed".  However, he also has the highest Kick rating, surpassing even Refractor and Astrapios.  I think this bodes well for the future, especially since Vinyasa has a long peak and his Stamina should continue to improve.
6. Fastest horse at Otsego Farms?  That would be 4yo filly Xtra Gold with a Top Speed of a blazing 94.  French Twist, 3yo colt,  is second fastest, clocking in at 93.
7. I've got three stallions already (see #1 above) and in another year or two, I may have six.  Refractor will definitely stay on, and I'm thinking seriously of keeping both Methy Bus and Alphabet as well.  They are both supremely talented and I think they would be successful as studs. 

Otsego Farms 2017 Preview

Using the strong 2016 season as a springboard, Otsego Farms is anticipating an even more successful 2017.

Owner Jim Webber gave the following quote at his annual pre-season press conference.  "We've got a very strong core of veteran racers, some up-and-coming younger racers, and a bunch of promising 2yo's."

6yo males Refractor and Methy Bus will lead the way, with 4yo colts Astrapios, Jack the Ripper, and Crackerjack, plus 4yo filly Xtra Gold lending solid support.

Webber commented, "We're expecting a bounce-back season from Refractor.  Astrapios should blossom as a top-notch distance threat.  Rip will continue to improve, and Methy Bus will continue to be the quiet, dangerous racer that he has always been."

Big things are also expected from 3yo colts Battlestar, French Twist, and Vinyasa.  "Battlestar in particular has our rapt attention," Webber continued.  He has unbelievable stamina and could see 16F later in the season."

2yo colt Steel Lion (War Machine x Ace Of Grace) and 2yo filly Tricky Woo (Yeager x Domino) appear to be the top candidates among the new racers.  Webber predicted, "Steel Lion is the total package and projects as a 10-12F racer, and Tricky is just plain fast.  She likes to run from behind though... not my favorite strategy for a spinter, but it's what she does.  We'll see how it works out."

Otsego Farms is also extremely pleased to announce the acquisition of 5yo male stayer Alphabet.  Webber gushed, "I've wanted this horse for years and I could not be more pleased that he now wears our blue and gold livery."

With the quartet of Refractor, Astrapios, Alphabet, and Battlestar, Webber thinks that Otsego Farms has assembled the strongest team of 16F racers in Photo Finish history.  "All four have Excellent stamina and having that many in one barn is almost unprecedented."  Otsego Farms actually has a fifth horse with Excellent stamina in untested 3yo Hollands Best.

New broodmare On The Prowl is a welcome addition, plus House of M and Nebula also join the ranks in the breeding shed, providing some fresh blood.

All in all, things are looking good for 2017.