Can you handle the truth?

These fantasy horses are very complex critters.

When a new foal is born, we are presented with a short AR which gives us rudimentary information about the new arrival. That information, plus what we can glean from studying the history of the sire and dam, is all we have to plan the new horses future.

Later, we gain more information by watching the horse race. Eventually, we develop a clear picture of the horses abilities and shortcomings. Sometimes this revelation comes quickly, sometimes it doesn't.

As I said, these fantasy horses are very complex critters. The small amount of information on the AR camouflage's the fact that there are many, many facets to the abilities and disabilities of each horse.

Here is a list of the attributes of each horse in the Photo-Finish game.

• Break Speed
• Early Speed
• Top Speed
• Long Stamina
• Ratability
• Running on Lead
• Handles Traffic
• Courage
• Soundness
• Curve Ability
• Durability
• Consistency
• Weight Stress Point
• Begin Peak Age
• End Peak Age
• Peak % at Age 3.3
• Running Style
• Acceleration
• Hard Dirt Ability
• Soft Dirt Ability
• Mud Ability
• Firm Turf Ability
• Soft Turf Ability

I imagine that many of these rating are intertwined when it comes to the horse performance on the track. For instance, a Poor Break Speed and the Far Back Running Style, may spell doom for a 5-furlong sprinter even if he has the most illustrious parents. Conversely, if all of the proper attributes fall correctly into place, you can have a superstar from relatively humble origins.

The attributes for each foal are determined by a mathematical breeding program devised by Photo-Finish Founder Laurie Brown.

Each attribute for the new foal is determined in the following manner:

• 25% probability of using the sire rating
• 25% probability of using the dam rating
• 25% probability of using the average of the sire and dam rating
• 25% random probability

Some Photo-Finish participants adhere to the belief that breeding is pure luck. As anyone can plainly see, the random probability is limited to 25%. Therefore 75% of the foal attributes are determined solely by the sire and dam. Unequivocally, this means that it is better to use the best quality sire and dam you can and to trust in statistical probability to produce a high quality foal.

However as shown above, there are many attributes to be determined for each horse and it is possible that poor ratings in key areas can torpedo a foal's future on the track. These poor ratings can be a result of a random anomaly or because both parents had a common weakness that manifests itself in the foal.

Those who trust in "pure luck" and pick poor studs or severely mismatched breeding pairs are statistically more apt to fail. That is a fact that cannot be disputed.

Prognosis good for Union Jack initial pairings. Well-established stables step up.

Seven solid citizens of the Photo-Finish community chose to reserve spots with Union Jack, the compact but robust turf stayer, who will be retiring at the end of the 2011 racing season.

Careful analysis of his AR and examination of his racing record lead many experts to conclude that Union Jack could be a sleeper-stud. He wasn't one of the all-time racing superstars, but he was an honest racer with tremendous ability.

Otsego owner Jim Webber summed it up quickly, "Jack is a stand-up guy, who has quietly done his job. He'll produce winners."

The names of the mares will not be disclosed at this time, but the stables that have spots with Jack are:

• Olmo Dorato
• Foxies Lodge
• Snowbank
• Bally Doyle
• Oak Tree
• 4th Alarm
• History's Own

At the time of this writing there is still one spot available. There have however, been some soft negotiations with a couple other stables that may not currently have a suitable mare.

This train is ready to leave the station. Don't miss it.

Un, Deux, Trois. Sixteen furlongs is the law.

We are fortunate here at Otsego Farms to have three quality studs who can provide a tremendous genetic probability of obtaining a real stayer. All three had significant success on the track and had the steam to do 16 furlongs.

Nightwing, who excelled on both dirt and turf, has an AR distance line that reads, "Handles 10 furlongs to 16 furlongs. Best distance 16 furlongs." As a stud, he has been generally underutilized in the past. Perhaps that will change with the success that Daredevil and Goodbye COV are experiencing. AVAILABLE at $25,000.

Union Jack, is primarily a turfer, but his AR states that he is Good, OK, Good on the three dirt categories. Distance-wise he is reported as handling, "10 furlongs to 16 furlongs." His AR does not state a best distance, but he has run successfully at 16 furlongs and holds the World Record at 14 furlongs. AVAILABLE at $50,000.

And most suprisingly, the AR for War Machine, who was mostly known for his exploits at 10 furlongs, states that he "Handles 10 furlongs to 16 furlongs. Best distance 16 furlongs." His offspring A View To A Kill, who is out of 16 furlong capable Dancing Delaware, shows off the potential of getting a stayer if matched with an appropriate dam. GENERALLY UNAVAILABLE except under special circumstances.

Breeding is always a gamble. Sprinters can pop out at the most inopportune times. But, these guys will put the odds in your favor if competing in the longer races is your goal.

Otsego Farms - The Superheroes of Racing - We Think 16.

Still looking for a mare to lease...

Otsego Farms will produce a record five foals later this season The pairings I have in mind at this point are:

1. War Machine x Affirm Gal
2. War Machine x Nova
3. Union Jack x Shattered Record
4. Union Jack x In Spirit

The odd man out at this point is Nightwing. I don't own a fifth broodmare, so I plan on leasing one if possible.

I'd like to secure a mare that has the following traits:

• Excellent stamina. Able to run 12-16 furlongs.
• Stalker or Mid-pack running style.
• No history of injury or soreness.
• At least OK on all surfaces.

I would pay a significant fee for the right mare. I realize that a mare in the caliber of Promised Land or Domitila will not be available, but I will certainly look at others that possess the above traits.

Otsego announces newest acquisition

Hex, the 3yo chestnut colt bred by KRF Stables, and recently owned by Olmo Dorato, has been acquired by Otsego Farms.

In a brief statement, Otsego owner Jim Webber joked that the reason he purchased the colt was because he "liked his name". He continued by saying, "È un piacere fare affari con Ettore, che è un po 'come un fratello per me."

Hex, who is by Hold That Tiger out of Heat Haze, has a career record of 10-0-1-1. When asked about the horse's modest record, Webber explained, "At around 11 furlongs on turf, this horse has real ability. We think there is definite upside and we intend to exploit it".

Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but it is known that breeding slots to soon-to-be stallion Union Jack were discussed.