Best laid plans of mice and men...

The plan was to have four Otsego Farms horses in the 2019 Kentucky Derby... but it didn't quite work out.  

Helikaon, perhaps out best "on-paper" chance at winning the race, and Infinity World, both missed out by the narrowest of margins.  Eight points were required to qualify for a spot and both horses only managed seven.

"I knew it was gonna be tight." a disappointed Otsego owner Jim Webber said late Sunday evening.  "We could have sent them out this weekend to try to scare up a couple more points, but in doing so, we felt they might not be ready for the Derby on May 1st.  So, we took a chance that their points would hold up."  After a moment he continued with a shrug, "They didn't."

On the bright side, Rico Suave and Lapsus will both make the trip, prompting Webber to say, "They are both legitimate threats and well-rested.  We'll see ya in Kentucky."  

If you're curious...

In all my years at Photo Finish, I have never done this before.  I wondered what my average HRF numbers for my entire stable.

I breed strictly for distance, so I expected the speed numbers to be on the low side and the stamina/kick numbers to be on the high side.  I did exclude the stats on the 2yo's, since the horses are immature and the numbers are volatile.

This is what I got:

GATE	EARLY	TOP	STAM	KICK
74.50	87.86	89.18	70.77	970.36

Gate speed a smidgen below average, which does not surprise me since I have quite a few horses who start slow and come from behind.

Early and Top speeds are exactly in line with my expectations.  I like the Top Speed 87/88 range for my stayers and that number reflects a little higher because of a select few like French Twist (93), Kid Shelleen (92), Simply Charming (92), Helikaon (91), and Scarlet Witch (91) who have some speed.  Interestingly, only Twist and Charming are sprinters in that group.

Average Stamina and Kick numbers show that the average runner in my barn is at least a Classic type.

Stable Spotlight - Golden Acres

Aussie Steven Williams, owner of Golden Acres, has been an active and outspoken member of Photo Finish since 2004.

He is in the midst of expanding his stable, so these numbers may have changed a bit since he submitted the questionnaire.  With approximately 167 stalls and plans to hit 200 by the end of the season, Golden Acres is one of our larger organizations.

With the recent acquisition of Molecular, he's currently got 4 stallions.  Thirty Four broodmares round out a large breeding operation.

His favorite horse is the filly Hagrid's Backhand, who won the Kentucky Derby and then followed that up with the Horse of the Year award in the same season.

Picking his top accomplishment was tough, but he decided it was breeding and managing Run Missy Run, who was an extremely accomplished racer, and is continuing his success as a top ranked stallion.

Steven can be reached via email at Herbie_569@hotmail.com, and on the message board as STEVEN.

Thrills and disappointments

Jackhammer outduels Bene There at the Dubai Sheema Classic

Weeks 13-14 were pivotal for Otsego Farms.  We had some stunning successes, and some critical shortfalls.

On the plus side, Jackhammer showed incredible grit down the stretch in winning the Dubai Sheema Classic by the slimmest of margins over Pendfold's 4yo Bene There.  Clearly spent,  Jackhammer nevertheless dug deep to nose out the victory, also knocking off Rainbow's mega-star Metalloid in the process.

Never short on colorful expressions, jubilant Otsego owner Jim Webber mopped his brow and stated, "I may have soiled myself at that finish..."

Le Chiffre had an easy time in cruising to a 8-length victory in the Melbourne Cup.  This marks the second straight year that Otsego Farms has won this race, with the aforementioned Jackhammer winning it last season.

Rico Suave solidified his Kentuck Derby berth with a strong first place showing in the Gallery Furniture.com Stakes.  He was challenged by the Long Island Hayburners colt My Wife (what's with that name?) but had a little too much and pulled away for the victory.

Otsego Farms' stated goal of having four entries in the 2019 Kentucky Derby took a bad turn when three of the horses failed to make good on their opportunities.  Infinity World finished 4th in the same race Rico Suave won.  Then Lapsus and Helikaon finished 3rd and 4th in the UAE Derby; both horses had extremely odd trips, settling waaay back and only making moves when the first two places were already pretty much settled.

Battlestar, hoping to defend his Dubai World Cup title, scratched out when the track came up fast and dry.  He won it last year when the track inexplicably came up muddy. 

We must mention the 2yo colt Hella Good (War Machine x On The Prowl), who finished 6th in the Dubai Juvenile, and looked darn good in doing so.  His future looks very bright.

Why wouldn't I?

So, I see an unraced 2yo sitting out on the sales page at the bargain basement buy now price of $1...

Noble Savage (Wekiva Bay x Savage Garden), is an early maturing type, who is projected to have a long career.  He is a distance horse who is decent on all surfaces.

I can understand why Absinthe sold him; she is concentrating on the sprinting game.  She could have held out for a little more money, but was evidently in a hurry to make space.  I've done the same thing on more than a few occasions.

This fellow is well-bred and ready to race.  I only had one open stall so I wasn't really in the market, especially since I have my eye on a horse at Endless Vista, but it seemed like a deal I just couldn't pass up.  I guess I just happened to be in the right place at the right time.  Like a midget at a urinal, you gotta stay on your toes.

Done deal.  Welcome aboard Noble Savage.

Stable Spotlight - Under The Weeping Moon

Doug Shepard, aka DJ, aka The Stat Man, joined Photo Finish in the Fall of 2003 and has been a quietly integral part of our community ever since.

Using my modest 80-stall stable as a measuring stick, I would classify Under The Weeping Moon as a large stable at 165 stalls.  He also employs 10 stallions (maybe 9, as he was contemplating a sale) and 27 broodmares.

He cited the dark grey filly Lava Drop as his favorite horse, since she was instrumental in getting him off to a good financial start in his early years.  In humble fashion, DJ say his stables top accomplishment is simply surviving as long as it has.  

The Stat Man can be reached on the forum as "weeping moon" or via email at djweepingmoon@aol.com,  Odds are 50/50 that this information is correct, though there is only a 10% chance of that.

And they're off!.... Ummm... hello?

Three year old filly Scarlet Witch (War Machine x Nova) has some talent.  No doubt about that.  But that gate speed... what?

She has been tracking at around 65... which is slow.  The slowest in my stable, in fact.  I haven't been overly concerned about it because she is a borderline Classic racer and blazing starts are not paramount at those distances.  However, her performance in the GR2 Rampart Handicap certainly got my attention.

She came out of the gates like a three-legged tortoise and was 20+ lengths behind in the first 2F.  She ran fine for the rest of the race and made up some ground, finishing 8th out of 12 but it's obvious that there must be improvement at the gun or her career is in jeopardy, at least here at Otsego Farms.

Post race inspection revealed a gate speed of 60!  That is incredibly low; perhaps the lowest I've ever had in my stable.  It's a shame too, because in all other respects, this horse has real potential.

Her next race will be critical.  I either see some improvement in her gate speed, or I'm tossing her back in the pond.

Things are shaping up nicely...

My master plan to get multiple entries into the 2019 Kentucky Derby got a nice shot in the arm today with three horses picking up critical qualification points:

Helikaon - 1st - GR2 Fountain of Youth Stakes

Infinity World - 2nd - GR1 Gulfstream Park Handicap

Rico Suave - 2nd - GR2 Revenge Stakes

Lapsus collared a win in last weeks GR3 Risen Star Stakes, so I currently have four colts in the top 15 spots for Derby qualification.

Of course, my plans may be dashed in the event of a 20-horse field, which might guarantee me just a single spot in the Derby.  However, since we have not had a full field in 5 years, we are hoping that we can get 2, 3, or 4 horses in the field.  

The rules may be a little fuzzy in this regard, so I am inquiring as to the feasibility of 4 entries from Otsego Farms... if all of them stay in the top 20.  This is my goal, and if we go strictly by the rule of top-20 horses getting priority, perhaps it's a possibility.

Exactly as advertised?

Of course I won't know for sure until I get to see her on the track, but my 1YO filly, Maleficent has early tongues wagging here at Otsego Farms.

A while ago, I did a piece on horses with Excellent stamina.  At that time, my stallion Union Jack, had sired the most offspring with the EX stamina trait.  A little more digging unearthed the fact that list mare Ticket to Dance had produced the most foals with that same trait.  What could be more ideal than to throw these two together and see what they can manufacture?

The result was a bay filly by the name of Maleficent.  Compact like her sire, she looks to be a pure turfer who loves distance.  

There are no holes or idiosyncrasies in her AR that worry me.  In fact, she projects to be may favorite kind of racer... a come-from-behind stayer, ala Nightwing.

Truth be told... I was hoping for a colt from this pairing, but one takes what one gets, right?  Hopefully, she will be worthy to keep on as a broodmare after her racing days are over.

It's a two-horse race!

The Morphettville Guineas, which is one mile on turf for 3yo fillies, drew just two entries this year.

Lady Monarch, running out of Cavalier Stables, and Goldolphin17's Windchime will compete head-to-head in a rare match race this weekend.  Both are winless in their short careers, so a maiden will be broken.

The question is... which one will prevail?

They are two entirely different types of racers, with Lady Monarch being more of the sprinting variety and Windchime leaning towards distance.  This race, being at 8F, splits the difference rather nicely and makes the matchup interesting, in a number-crunching kind of way.

I called Lady Monarch a sprinter, but that is a bit of a misnomer.  She really is kinda slow for short races.  She also has an abnormally high kick, which argues with her sprinting stamina.  All in all, her conflicting stats no doubt contribute to her overall ineffectiveness.

Classifying Windchime as a distance horse is not exactly on the mark either.  She does have a nice stamina rating, but her kick is much lower than what you'd like to see in a stayer type.  Also, she is a slow starter with slow early speed... OK in long races, but generally a bad combination in races of less than 9F, like The Morphettville Guineas.

So who will win?  

It could really go either way.  Neither horse stands out at this distance.

SCENARIO ONE:  Lady Monarch grabs an early lead, stretches out to 3-4 lengths, and hangs on at the end as Windchime is gaining ground.

SCENARIO TWO:  Lady Monarch leads early, but begins to falter by 6F.  Windchime reels her in and wins by several lengths.

Prediction - Windchime wins.

Stable Spotlight - Olmo Dorato

As far as I know, Olmo Dorato is the largest stable in the Photo Finish universe.

Owned by our Italian friend, Ettore Pozzoli, Olmo Dorato has 240 stalls, with 15 stallions and 42 broodmares.

This stable is also a powerhouse; routinely atop the earnings list, usually with a plethora of outstanding horses.

Ettore's favorite horse is the legendary Capro Espiatorio... and it's no wonder why.  In his racing years, this colt won four different Eclipse Awards and had over $21,000,000 in earnings!  Ettore has also enjoyed many other major accomplishments, including several Breeders Cup victories.

He can be reached on the forum as "Brusko" or via email at 24dicembre@virgilio.it.

I'm sending out the A-Team

There is no Plan B...

Lapsus pulling in a win at the GR3 Risen Star Stakes this week puts him on the Kentucky Derby map and that was my plan.  As mentioned previously, probably ad nauseum to some, I have visions of multiple entries in this years Kentucky Derby.  

Helikaon, perhaps my best chance for a Derby win, squandered an opportunity in his last outing and is currently outside the top 25 potential qualifiers.  We hope he can rectify this situation with a win in next weeks Fountain of Youth Stakes.

Rico Suave will run in the 10F Revenge Stakes, and barring a scratch, we feel he will win this race easily.  If so, he will vault up the rankings and get himself into position for a berth.

Lastly, Infinity World will shoot the moon next weekend and enter as a underdog in the GR 1 Gulfstream Park Handicap.  He will have tough competition, but we feel he has a chance at this race, especially with the weight advantage he will enjoy as a 3yo.

I love it when a plan comes together, and if it all works out, I hope to have at least two entries in the big race this year.  I pity the fools who get in my way...