Just for fun... a prediction!

Picking winners is never a sure thing.  Or is it?

To try to find out, I decided to take a look at a random race this weekend to see if I can predict the outcome, based solely on the horses current stats.

It had to be a race with limited entries because I didn't want to spend a ton of time analyzing 20 horses.  Also, I didn't want to pick a race with a clear cut favorite.  Scanning down the list, the San Vicente Stakes seemed to meet the criteria.  Six 3yo colts competing at 7F, and I was unfamiliar with all of them.

After my first glance I was sure of one thing; Sisqo Falls and WalkingOnSunshine will not win.  Both are too slow to compete in this race. 

Crash Landing and Last Fine Drop are very similar horses and they will battle for 3rd/4th place.  Flip a coin.

My Boy Brandon and Unrepentant are the cream of this crop and one of these two will win with the other finishing second.  Based on the fact that My Boy Brandon will have a blazing start and should be able to hang on to the lead and Unrepentant will be working on a scant 21 days rest, I'll predict the final outcome as:

1. My Boy Brandon
2. Unrepentant
3. Crash Landing
4. Last Fine Drop
5. Sisqo Falls
6. WalkingOnSunshine

Remember, nothing is foolproof.  If the top two swapped places it wouldn't surprise me.  It's possible that either CL or LFD could creep into second place,  However, I will guarantee that neither SF or WOS will win.

We'll see tomorrow morning!

You may have heard all this before...

BS, ES, TS, ST, KI

Break Speed, Early Speed, Top Speed, Stamina, Kick.

Many of you are very familiar with these ratings.  Some of you know of their existence, but take them with a grain of salt.  Others are totally unaware of them. 

Personally, I think that understanding these numbers is paramount to understanding your horses.

There are a couple dozen other factors that interact and affect your horses performance.  So these five core ratings are not the only things that determine whether you've got a Turf Monster or a Thunder Arctic on your hands.  It is very difficult though, if not impossible, to locate, decipher and interpret all of the other ratings.  Therefore, reliance on these numbers is the easiest way to try to get a handle on your horse.

Break Speed

Sometimes I refer to it as Gate Speed.  Typically ranges from about 65 to 85 with the higher number being faster.  Sprinters would benefit from a BS that is as high as possible.  A horse with an 80+ BS will vault out of the gate and attempt to grab an early lead.  If you are producing sprinters, I would try to breed for a fast break speed and a front running style.  A sprinter who is a rocket-type starter and has a come-from-behind racing style will probably have limited success.  Those two attributes just don't play well together, in most cases.

Early Speed

Usually as low as 83 and tops out at 94.  The importance of this number depends on the style of runner you have and the distance of the race.  For example, if you have a horse who is a front runner, but has horrible break speed and poor early speed, you may have a problem.  He'll be trying to get to the lead, but will be handicapped by a bad start and slow initial speed.  More than likely, he'll labor early at effort level 4 or 5, trying to follow his preferred running style, but will run out of gas and fade badly.  Early speed is less essential on stayers.

Top Speed

TS is the glamour stat.  This has the narrowest band, usually running between 86 and 94.  Whether you have a sprinter, a miler, a classic, or an endurance runner, the higher the number, the better.  Top-notch sprinters will be at 94 and endurance types usually check in at about 87 or 88.

Stamina

I've seen 'em as low as 64 and as high as 74.  This number is the best indicator of what distance you should be running a particular horse at, regardless what the AR says.  There is an article in the Otsego Insider dated March 27th that talks specifically about stamina.

Kick

A misunderstood stat.  This number ranges from 400 to 1200.  Most of the top stayers have a Kick rating above 1000.  But there are sprinters that have gaudy kick numbers as well.  French Twist has a TS of 93 and a stamina of 67, which makes him a sprinter in my mind.  He does have a current kick rating of 1068, which is as high as Refractor!  In my mind, the stamina rating takes precedence, so I believe he'll remain a sprinter, but I expect him to display more steam in the final furlong than the typical sprinter.

Run Missy Run was one of the most dominant sprinters in Photo Finish history.  In his prime, he stacked up WR's and TR's like Lincoln Logs.  His stats at his prime were 77-94-94-66-789.  He was a  better than average starter with blazing early and top speed.  His 66 stamina screamed sprinter, and that's where he did most of his damage, but he had an above-average kick of 789 and that enabled him to stretch successfully up to 8 furlongs.

I randomly chose a horse to analyze.  Hot As A Pepper had a mostly lackluster career as a sprinter, never topping PSR 100.  His numbers at his prime were 77-89-90-71-501, and a couple things stand right out.  1) His speed was too low to compete as a successful sprinter.  2) His stamina of 71 suggested he was more of a classic type, even though he had a below average kick of 501.  He probably wouldn't have panned out in the classic arena either, but one thing was for sure, this bird was no sprinter.

Just some stuff to think about.

Time to swallow my pride...

I'm gonna make this short and sweet.

I overreacted to some criticism the other day.  Most of you know the story.  I think I was somewhat justified by my indignation, but I was certainly hasty when it came to making the decision to quit Photo Finish.

Even though I regretted the decision almost immediately, I was determined to see it through, because I felt it would be an embarrassment to renege on such a dramatic proclamation.

However, in the last 48 hours I have received many touching messages and emails and these have reminded me of what I would be giving up.  I do consider everyone at Photo Finish to be part of an extended family and the fact is... I'd just miss you all too much.

So.... even though there will be smirkers that say, "I knew he wouldn't do it", I'm going to stay.

I'd like to thank those of you that wrote to me.  It meant a lot.  Truly.  (Why do I feel like I'm up at a podium accepting an Oscar or something like that?)

Please don't say anything more nice about me.  I beg you.  I couldn't take it. 

Thanks and I love ya all!  Well, most of you.  Some of you, that is.  A couple of you anyway. 

It's been real...

Otsego Farms has ceased operations effective immediately.

Thanks for all the friendships over the past 10 years.  Cya!

Over before it ever started?

I was all set to roll out a new stat this week. I've been working on it for a while now. It's called Speed Score. It compares each time run with a par score at each surface/distance combination. The par score is the average of every winning time in PF history at each surface/distance combination. There's still some tweaking that can be done with it, but it seems pretty interesting.

Then the first week of racing happened and I'm not sure that I even want to continue with it. There seems to be a "super horse" issue in our little racing world. Occasionally, a horse will top the speed/stamina cap by one. It happens. No big deal. It was pointed out to me this week (I haven't checked all the numbers on my own...yet) that sixteen different horses were over the "cap". A world record was "smashed" this week. By two horses. One was four over the limit and the other three. This really isn't a new phenomena either. Here are a few horses from last year.

Horse A: +2, +3, +3, +2, +2, EVEN, +2, +2, EVEN The two EVEN's happened on tracks rated as "OK" and "No!". If those two were at a "Yes", they would have been plus also. The horse went undefeated.

Horse B: +2, +2, +2, +2, EVEN, +2, +2, EVEN, +2, +2, +2, +2. The two EVEN's came on the only two tracks rated below "Yes". This horse also went undefeated.

These aren't the only two that were consistently over the limit. Let me say this right now. I don't believe for one second that Laurie is cheating. The software is known to be buggy. I know of a year in the past where every horse from certain crops were showing up as a "Fair" in the stamina department. Even if they were something else the year before. Something needs to be done though. The "super horses" need to be reigned in. Either that or do away with the cap. It's just not fair to have horses competing with two different limits. It also takes the fun out of the game.