5 Questions for Otsego Farms for 2010

Overall, I'm very optimistic about the upcoming racing season. However, there are a few questions that could affect just how successful 2010 will be:

1. Have we invested too heavily in veteran racers? It is possible that Doomsday, Affirm Gal, King of the Sea, and Union Jack are all past their prime. I would say that the best candidates for an ability drop-off are Doomsday and Affirm Gal. We'll keep a close eye on their performance and race them sparingly if performance starts to wane. We are pretty confident that King of the Sea and Union Jack have at least another year in them.
2. Will the relative lack of filly and mare racers be problematic? We have only 2 females in our string of 16 racers. They are Affirm Gal and the 2yo Rogue. We had a very similar situation last season, beginning the year with 3 female racers, Nova, Lady Katherine, and Dragon Force, and ending up with just one. Frankly, we didn't think it was a problem then, or now.
3. Will the lack of 3yo racers be problematic? This is a bit of an issue. Selling Night Thrasher and Dragon Force and not replacing them with same-age horses has left us very short for the lucrative 3yo races in 2010. Just two out of 16 of our racers are 3yo's, Big Slick and Mister Fantastic. We do like both of these horses though and we think that Big Slick in particular may be Derby-worthy if he can stay healthy early in the season.
4. Does Confederation still have what it takes to win? One of the most successful stables in the game, FDL Lodge, may have felt that Confederation had reached the end of the line. After looking at the statistics, I had to disagree. I felt that a $400,000 outlay for a horse that won $1.6 million last season, in impressive fashion I might add, was a great investment. I think that Confederation was run a little too frequently, and that may have contributed to his multitude of 2nd place finishes. He had a 2009 record of 15-2-7-3. He'll run in about 10 races this year at no farther than 10 furlongs. We predict a fine season.
5. How is Rogue going to perform? This is a question that is very important and also unanswerable. Important because she is War Machine's first baby to hit the track for Otsego Farms, and unanswerable because you just never know with a new racer. Rogue has a very nice AR, with no obvious holes. However, as you all know, it all comes together on the track. I've got my fingers crossed.

Good luck to all, and let's get racing!

War Machine initial crop to hit track soon...

These are the 2yo War Machine offspring that hit the track in 2010:

• A View to a Kill - colt, Bally Doyle
  
• By A nose Jo - filly, Pointgiven
  
• Drop of War - colt, Goforwand
  
• Garson de Garcia - colt, FDL
  
• Rogue - filly, Otsego
  
• Warrior King - colt, Bonai
  
• White War - colt, Rainbow

I've been waiting for this moment for quite a while. The long wait can culminate in joy, or sorrow, depending on how my filly Rogue, and in fact, all of the above horses perform.

Being a successful stud is a very dicey proposition. A couple "bad" crops and the luster of even a big name like War Machine may suffer. As a result, I'm on pins and needles with regard to all of these horses.

Unlike many top stallions, War Machine has a limited number of offspring to carry his torch. I've tried to limit the pairings to just 5 per season, and I have been mostly successful. In three breeding seasons, there have been just 17 War Machine foals (12 colts, 5 fillies). Fewer foals means fewer opportunities for a an offspring to make a splash.

So, I'll be watching these 2yo's very carefully to see how they perform. Best of luck!

Spin the breeding wheel....

Three foals were bred in 2009 and the results, while satisfactory, were somewhat unexpected.

Big Easy, the consummate miler, was matched with Shadowcat. As a result, we were expecting an all-surface sprinter/miler. The filly Huntress was produced with the following attributes:

Huntress (2010), 16.3 hand chestnut filly
By Big Easy out of Shadowcat by The Wicked North

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse is good on soft dirt.
This horse is ok in mud.
This horse is good on hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse is of average soundness.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse looks like it can run at classic distances.

An all-surface Classic distance filly. Not exactly what the doctor ordered, but we'll take it.

Nightwing and Shattered Record produced an outstanding colt last season in Shatterstar, so we decided to try that exact match again. The parents were both long distance runners, so we expected more of the same. A filly named Starfire was the result:

Starfire (2010), 15.3 hand bay filly
By Nightwing out of Shattered Record by Black Shatter

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse is ok on soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has a mind of its own and likes to run at its own pace.
This horse appears to be primarily a miler.

Again, a bit of a surprise to see a miler, but overall we like what we see.

Lastly, War Machine was paired with Nova in a combination of speed plus speed. I thought hard about this match because I normally do not combine sprinters with routers. But, even though Nova raced primarily at 6-7 furlongs, she was rated up to 9 furlongs and performed well at those distances later in her career. I was hoping for a Classic colt (after getting fillies in WM's first two years at stud), but got the following:

Ultron (2010), 17 hand dark brown colt
By War Machine out of Nova by Housebuster

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse prefers soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse is poor on hard turf.
This horse is ok on soft turf.
This horse is of average soundness.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse appears to be a sprinter.

Colt, check. Dirt lover, check. Mature quickly, check. Sprinter? I was surprised, but not disappointed. If this colt inherits the speed of his parents, he'll make waves. Maybe we'll be able to stretch him to 8-9 furlongs like his mother?

Stable depth greater than last season

Last season, I mentioned that our racing string had depth of talent. That was true as evidenced by over 60% of our races having PSR's above 90 and 66% of all entries hitting the board.

By making some key acquisitions late last year, and picking up a proven winner during the auction, I suspect that we have even a deeper amount of talent this season, in spite of the retirements of Nova and Big Easy.

Just glancing down the roster, I'd say that we have at least 5 horses that are a threat to win any race they enter. They are Affirm Gal, Union Jack, Confederation, Kid Flash, and Stowaway.

Additionally, there are another 4 horses who have excellent ability and can win at least a couple races each if appropriately placed. They are Doomsday, King of the Sea, Seven Memory, and Big Slick.

Sitio Estratigico and Candle of Life round out the list of veteran racers. They are both capable of winning at least one race each in 2010.

Throw in my talented, but late-maturing 3yo Mister Fantastic and a nice group of 2yo's headed by War Machine's daughter Rogue, and you can see why I am optimistic.

Watch out for Stowaway

This 4yo white colt has been very lightly run so far in his career with his current record standing at 7-2-2-1. He'll get a better chance to show his stuff this year with a schedule of 8-10 races.

Purchased in mid-season 2009 for $310,000 from History's Own, Stowaway went on to have a record of 3-2-1-0 for Otsego Farms. His speed scores of 120, 92, and 105 bode well for his future success.

This horse's speed and consistency are his primary attributes. He can race on soft turf, but will compete strictly on dirt in 2010 as that is his preferred surface.

We are still very excited about this horse and feel very fortunate to have him. We think he will be a steady earner in Gr2 and Gr3 races, with an occasional stab at a Gr1 if appropriate.

2010 Stable Goals

We've got 16 racers this year, the most in our history. That is very exciting and virtually assures us that we will have at least a few races to enjoy every week.

We've gotten a little more patient every year and that culminated in just 85 entries last season with 13 racers. Of that 85, we gathered 19 wins, 20 places, and 17 shows; a 66% on-the-board percentage.

We anticipate entering between 100 and 110 races in 2010. Our official goal for wins is 25, but we expect the number could range as low as 20. Anything less than 20 wins would be considered a disappointment. If we could maintain the 66% OTB ratio we would obviously be very pleased.

Best of luck to everyone during the new racing season.

Mister Fantastic: "He's almost ready"

That is the recent assessment made by our trainers concerning the late-blooming 3yo bay colt, Mister Fantastic.

By Dayjur out of Exotic Wood, he has speed in his blood. However, he has shown a little more stamina than either of his parents, leading us to believe that he will eventually compete in races as long as 10 furlongs.

Knowing he wasn't ready, but wanting to test him a bit, we sent MF out to race once as a 2yo in the 5 furlong Cooper Stakes. He finished last in a field of 7 horses with a PSR of 63. Not up to our stable goal of at least 90, but slightly encouraging nonetheless.

We've decided to continue training for awhile yet. He'll hit the track again probably in late March or April.

Rogue: Itching to run....

Daughter of War Machine. Half-sister to Union Jack.

The mighty War Machine's first batch of offspring will hit the track this season and this little chestnut filly is ready to roll. Maturing early, we expect her to run in the neighborhood of 8 races in 2010.

Rogue likes classic distances, just like daddy. But in addition to liking the dirt, this filly will also run on turf, which is something that War Machine preferred not to do. That little bit of added flexibility ought to help immensely.

She's brown. She's fast. She's gonna kick your ass.

2010 New Additions

Three new horses will don the blue and gold of Otsego Farms in 2010.

An end-of-season private transaction brought the 4yo colt Confederation over from FDL Lodge. This is a proven racer with a career record of 23-4-8-5 and earnings of $1,744,500. We anticipate reducing his workload a bit, maybe down to 10 races. We're thinking that earnings of $500,000+ are attainable in 2010.

The 2009 year-end auction recently concluded with just token involvement by Otsego Farms. We picked up a 2yo colt named Born to Fly and the fine 5yo mare Affirm Gal.

Affirm Gal has a career record of 15-6-3-2 with earnings of $647,625. We feel she'll have another year of racing, then it'll be off to the breeding barn to join Shattered Record and Nova.