A short meeting in the office...

Recent conversation between Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber and his head trainer:

JW: So tell me about our Derby possibilities.

HT: Best chance we've had in years...

JW: Helikaon and Rico?

HT: Yup.

JW: What are the chances they both get in?

HT: I'd say pretty good... as long as we schedule them right.

JW: Which means?

HT: Never head-to-head until May.

JW: Tell me about Helikaon.

HT: He's his fathers son.  Incredible speed/stamina combination.  He'll be a force at 10 furlongs.

JW: And Rico Suave?

HT: Totally different.  He's all about stamina.

JW: Can he make 16?

HT: Not now.  We need to strengthen his finishing kick a bit more.  He's getting stronger though.

JW: If they went head-to-head at the Kentucky Derby?

HT: Tough call.  If it's soft, Helikaon.  In the mud, Rico.

JW: On a fast track?

HT: You're putting me on the spot Boss...

JW: It's what I do.

HT: Depends on the trip...

JW: Clean.

HT: <laughs> OK, I guess I'm not gonna be able to slip outta this one, huh?

JW: Not a chance.

HT: I'd go with Helikaon.  He's faster and has plenty of stamina.  

JW: Get them both to the Derby and I'll give you a $250,000 bonus.  If one of them wins, I'll make it $500,000...

HT: I'm on it.

JW: Thanks.  

JW: <to secretary> Celeste, what time is it in Australia right now?

C: It's a little after 11:00 AM

JW: See if you can get Fin on the phone, will ya?  <to himself as he heads back to his desk> I gotta see if he's thinking Ballotelli has a chance in Kentucky...

We're bursting at the seams

Generally, I keep a few mid-talent or over-the-hill horses on board to serve as a safety valve in the event that I need to make room quickly.

Right now, I am in the uncomfortable position of not having that luxury.  There are a couple acquisitions I would like to make but I'm tapped out stall-wise and I don't want to get rid of any of the horses I currently own.  It's quite a quandary.

These are my horses.... and the reasons I don't want to get rid of them:

1. Methy Bus - joining stallion ranks
2. Acquarella - steady producer who spun a WR in his last race
3. Battlestar - proven winner
4. French Twist - consistent money maker with very long career potential
5. Hollands Best - really quite talented for a no-name
6. Zombieslayer - long career should pay dividends
7. Jackhammer - proven winner
8. Le Chiffre - proven winner
9. Na'vi - has tools and it's too soon to give up
10. Ugotthelook - superior talent with broodmare potential
11. Viperwolf - should be dominant at G2/G3 
12. Give Me Danger - unraced 3yo with stayer heart and breeding
13. Helikaon - Kentucky Derby bound talent
14. Infinity World - rising PSR's bode well
15. Kid Shelleen - he's fast and strong so he should break out in 2019
16. Lapsus - acquired in On The Prowl deal... he's the next Methy Bus
17. Makes Me Wonder - expecting much more as a 3yo based on numbers
18. Reminiscing - nice start as 2yo
19. Rico Suave - Otsego's next distance stud.  Watch him.
20. Scarlet Witch - her numbers are good, early season will make or break
21. Simply Charming - three wins as a 2yo, hard to argue with that
22. Then Came You - long peak, rising PSR's... outlook good

Of course, I have 12 incoming 2yo's as well as another 28 yearlings and foals, none of which I will sell until I've seen them race a couple times and have had a chance to digest their numbers.

So...I need to make a little room, but I'm not currently in the position to do so.  What to do?

We go long...

Along with Superheroes of  Racing, "We go long" has been one of Otsego Farms taglines for years.  It stems from our predilection towards breeding and acquiring distance racers.

Given this fondness for stayers, it should come as no surprise that the Breeders Cup Endurance is our favorite race.  In the last five years, we have had entries every year...

We hit the jackpot in 2018 when Otsego Farms became the first stable ever to finish 1st/2nd in this race.  3yo Le Chiffe, acquired as a unraced 2yo, and homebred 3yo Jackhammer pulled off this improbable feat.  Olmo Dorado had come close in 2013 with a 1st/3rd by Vindictive and Novice.  

In 2017, his final racing season, 5yo Alphabet finished 4th.  Ironically, recently acquired Sisqo Falls finished 3rd in this race.

5yo Refractor, purchased as an underachieving 3yo from Rainbow, finished 3rd in 2016, in his third and final attempt.

In 2015, Refractor finished 2nd.  Alphabet, who would later join our farm in a transaction with Foxies Lodge, won this race as a 3yo.

As a 3yo in 2014, Refractor won the Endurance, in just his 7th race for our stable.

So in the last 5 years, our record in this race has been 6-2-2-1-1.

Prior to the last 5 years, the last Otsego Farms horse to compete in the Endurance was Nightwing, who finished 2nd, 2nd, and 4th, in three consecutive appearance in 2004, 2005, and 2006.

Barring injury, we expect both Le Chiffre and Jackhammer to return in 2019.  Le Chiffre will attempt to become the third horse to go back-to-back, with Braveheart and Vindictive being the first two to accomplish this feat.

Timing is everything

We've probably all been there before; the horror of giving up on a horse prematurely.  There is nothing more frustrating than dumping a racer, then watching it string together wins at another stable.

Fortunately, most of us have also been on the positive side of this kind of transaction.

I purchased 6yo male Acquarella at the beginning of his 4yo season.  At that time, he was already a million dollar winner, including $630,000 in winnings in his last 5 races.  Inexplicably, he ended up on the sales page, and even more inexplicably, he did not receive a single bid until I purchased him at the last moment for $21,000.  In the two seasons since, he has produced a record of 17-7-2-2-4 with earnings of $750,000.

There are stables that would scoff at those numbers because Acquarella is not a G1-type racer.  However, I get satisfaction by winning races and making good investments, regardless of the level of the racer.

Which is why I recently purchased the 5yo male Sisqo Falls for $10,000.  He has won $230,000 in his last four races, and doesn't appear spent to me, with two consecutive sub-2:00 10F appearances.  I envision him being a force on the G3 Classic tour in 2019.  Can't wait to see!

One more season for old warrior

Eight year old Methy Bus (A Bus x Annibynnol Meth), returns in 2019 for his final racing season, hoping to cap his illustrious career by capturing his 20th victory.  With a current record of 49-18-11-6, he needs two wins to achieve that lofty goal.

In 2018, he managed just one win despite a sparkling average of 108 PSR in 8 starts.  Owner Jim Webber stated that Methy Bus will concentrate on G2/G3 races this season in hopes of securing a couple more wins.

"He still has ability, but perhaps at age 8 he would be better off to avoid the kind of competition he will see at GR1 races," Webber confided.

According to the connections at Otsego Farms, Methy Bus will be joining their ranks of breeding stallions at the end of the year.  Although he has performed on turf in 47 of 49 career races, Webber says that owners of prospective dirt broodmares should not overlook this stallion, "He prefers turf, no doubt, but he is OK on all aspects of dirt.  I personally don't plan of shying away with dirt mares."

The ship is sailing...

My mare Nova is 14 years old and only has a few foal-bearing years left.  In spite of my love for this horse, I am losing patience with her as a broodmare and have contemplated selling or trading her to another stable.

She was the first foal born at Otsego Farms (Housebuster x Raging Fever) and had a really stellar career with a record of 30-9-9-3 and $1.7M in earnings.  She was incredibly consistent, with 80% of her races being above PSR 100 and only one race being below PSR 96.  She missed racing immortality by a whisker when she was nosed out by Victory Dance in the 2008 Breeders Cup Sprint.

In spite of her credentials, she has been mediocre in the breeding shed.  As of now, she has had 7 offspring hit the track.  I'll take Scarlet Witch out of the equation, as she is too inexperienced at this point.  

Of the other 6 horses, three (Warp Factor Ten, French Twist, Nebula) are/were decent producers, although none can be described as great.  The other three (Quasar, Ultron, Big Bang) can only be described as disasters.

She has consistently been paired with superior studs (Run Missy Run, Deaux Francais, Dubai Gold, Revenge, War Machine, Big N' Rich) so you would have thought that some real talent might eventually be produced.

In order to shake things up a bit, I paired her with the true distance horse Union Jack in 2017.  The result was the filly Jackanova, a distance horse with good speed. Who knows how that will pan out? Foxie's Lodge used her as a broodmare in 2019 with another distance horse, Jenny's My Gal as the stud.

So... my results with this great mare have been poor.  I'd consider finding her a new home if anyone is interested.  Perhaps someone else can tap her hidden potential as a broodmare.

At the moment, phasers are set to stun.

OK... so maybe I'm overreacting a bit.  I really don't have a huge problem with horses that are velocity challenged... as long as they are not Sprinters, Milers, or Classic racers.

Distance horses, and I mean horses that are 16F capable, usually have lower speed ratings, which within the mathematical breeding calculations of Photo Finish, accommodate the higher stamina ratings I crave.  

Occasionally though, a horse crops up that has a freakishly low speed rating that even loads of stamina and kick cannot overcome.  My mare Blank KD comes to mind.  Even stamina of 74 and kick of 1250 could not float that sluggish 84 speed rating.  She would have been unbeatable at races of 20F though.

As I said, in my stable, which breeds for true stayers, low speed doesn't necessarily spell doom.  Even so, 50% of my 2019 crop has the "Unfortunately" rating?  Seriously?  

As I thought about it more, I realized that the negativity portrayed in the AR was actually a good thing.  This rating will probably mean that 87 will be the high water mark for speed for these six foals.  An 87 rating will allow for a possible 74 in stamina, which is the holy grail for distance horses... exactly what I want.  

With that in mind, I decided to change my poster...

Hoping for a glitch in the Matrix

I had a pretty good thing going in 2018 with Battlestar and Jackhammer.  They both won big races and earned $4.5M and $3.8M, respectively.

It seemed like the most natural thing in the world to duplicate the breeding and see if I could catch lightning in a bottle for a second time.

Battlestar was sired by Nightwing, out of In Spirit.  Since the old veteran stallion is still kicking and the mare is also owned by Otsego Farms, I decided to give them a go again.  The resulting foal is a colt by the name of Darkstar, who projects as a big, strong stayer with perhaps more stamina, but less speed than his brother.

Union Jack and Baby Greyhound combined to produce Jackhammer in 2015.  Jackhammer is a compact male with tremendous stamina.  I had to reacquire Baby Greyhound to make this match possible, and I was able to do so for a paltry $10,000 from Endless Vista.  The foal is a massive colt named Redeemer, a distance horse with a strong preference for turf.

It'll be a while before we see if this strategy pays off.  I'll just have to wait and see.  

Best breeder in Photo Finish?

Anxiously awaiting results of best breeder award

The title of best breeder is difficult to assign.

  

Some stables breed sparingly, which limits their opportunity to be anointed as "the best".  Others set their pairings up haphazardly or just for fun, not putting much thought into it.  Still others may be just plain lucky.  

Donny at Chiquita Lodge has been prolific, putting himself atop the TOP BREEDERS list many times in the past few years.  But what exactly does that mean?

That list sorts stables strictly by earnings of homebred horses.  That is a very important measuring stick, no question.  But does that necessarily mean that Chiquita Lodge, who had homebred earnings of $25.9M was the top breeder?  It does if earnings is the only criteria.

Out of curiosity, I looked at the top 10 stables on the list for 2018 and ranked them 1 (best) to 10 (worst) in the following categories, giving each category equal weight.

• Average earnings per start
• On-the-board percentage
• Win percentage

Then I averaged the three scores and came up with a ranking of the "best" breeders as far as 2018 results were concerned.  Using AEPS as a tiebreaker, they are:

1. Rainbow +1
2. Snowbank Farm +3
3. Golden Acres +6
4. Otsego Farms +6
5. Whisperwood -1
6. Chiquita Lodge -5
7. Olmo Dorato +1
8. FDL Lodge -5
9. Newsham Lodge -2
10. Foxies Lodge -4

The +/- shows the number of spots a stable went up or down from their position on the TOP BREEDERS table.

What exactly does all of this mean?  Nothing!  Just for grins.

The enigma of Kid Shelleen

Kid Shelleen, 3yo chestnut colt by War Machine out of Nebula, has all of the tools to make it big.

I was very excited by early reports received from the trainers; size, speed, stamina, obedience... he seemed to have everything going for him.  Analysis of his numbers during his first year on the track confirmed all that I was told.  Why then, did this colt struggle to a record of 5-0-1-0 during his 2yo season?  Why was his best PSR just a moldering 85?

In his fifth and final race of the season, the 8F Texas Stallion Stakes Juvenile, the numbers were 79-92-92-69-1030.  Excellent to be sure, and certainly worthy of better than a middle-of-the-pack 5th place finish.  

The winner of that race, Der Rise, had numbers of 74-87-88-72-974.  Those look very good for a 2yo stayer, but in an 8F race such as the Texas Stallion Stakes, I would have thought that the Kid's numbers translated better.  

In fact, Kid Shelleen had the best speed numbers in the race, by a fair margin, and stamina/kick ratings that would be more than adequate for a mile.  

I still have hopes that this colt will be something special.  The numbers usually don't lie.  Sometimes though, buried deep in the stats, like an undecipherable hieroglyphic, is a weakness that will prevent a horse from attaining success.  We'll see in 2019...

Jackhammer to open season in Japan

4yo Jackhammer will become just the third horse in Otsego Farms history to enter the Japan Cup.  

He'll have 5 weeks of rest on race day and will be on his preferred surface, which makes him a solid contender, regardless of the competition.  Three year olds have dominated this race since it was added to the Photo Finish schedule in 2011, winning six times in eight tries, but the connections at Otsego think that Jackhammer has the strength to overcome the additional weight he will carry.

Battlestar ran in the Japan Cup in 2018, and finished a disappointing 7th.  He disliked the going in Japan, but rebounded nicely in his next start, winning the lucrative Dubai World Cup.

A View to a Kill finished 2nd in 2011, well behind the legendary Heat Seeker.  Interestingly, these 3yo's finished 1-2 in this race despite of a skimpy 2-pound weight advantage over the rest of the field.  For the next 2 years, no 3yo's competed in this race.  Then in 2014, Pluto became the next 3yo to win, and did so with a 26-pound weight advantage over 2nd place finisher Serengeti and a 28-pound advantage over the favorite, Capro Espiatorio, who finished 4th.  

Three year olds have dominated this race and enjoyed huge handicap advantages ever since then, prompting Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber to state, "Yes, I am a little concerned about the weight disparity.  Jackhammer will have to lug an extra 25 lbs or so and that may tell in the final couple furlongs."

Another banner year in 2019?

Last season will be a tough one to top.  With $16.5M in winnings in just 211 starts, 2018 was the most productive season in Otsego Farms history.  Fortunately, we are well-stocked with veteran and young racers, so 2019 holds the promise of similar success.

Dubai World Cup winner 5yo Battlestar will be joined once again by Melbourne Cup winner 4yo Jackhammer, and Breeders Cup Endurance winner 4yo Le Chiffre to form a triumvirate that must be respected, if not feared.

Especially exciting is the fact that in my opinion, we have not one, not two, but three (perhaps four) bona fide Kentucky Derby candidates: 

Helikaon (War Machine x In Spirit) 5-2-1-2

He's got the chops, since his sire was a Kentucky Derby winner and his half-brother Battlestar won the Dubai World Cup last season.  Helikaon loves dirt and has the speed stamina combination to make a run at this race.

Rico Suave (Find A Way x False Demon) 4-2-1-0

He's a stamina freak who has just enough speed to deal with the faster horses that will show up for the Derby.  Sire was supremely talented, but a little inconsistent, a trait that Rico does not seem to emulate.

Infinity World (Union Jack x Wait a While) 6-1-1-0

Lapsus (Sinking Fear x Alien Landscape) 6-2-2-0

Both of these fellows have the potential to be Derby contenders with Infinity World being a little more comfortable on dirt.  

All four of these colts will start the season on the Derby trail.  I'm sure I'll have a good idea who belongs and who does not by mid-March on the racing calendar.