Thursday, September 17, 2009

Did I just have another poor season?


And I thought that 2011 was forgettable....


The 2012 season was every bit as easy to forget. It was marred by unfulfilled expectations by my 2yo crop and by the mediocrity of my veteran racers.

In spite of generally high PSR's, A View to a Kill, Petenwell, and Kostya all had trouble finding the winners circle.

The 2yo fillies Starfire and Huntress both had some small success, but certainly nothing to get overly excited about.

2yos Titanium and Ultron, both carrying the weight of colossal expectation, were nothing short of busts. Ultron will get more time to straighten out but Titanium may very well be sold at the year-end auction.

Tombstone, the 3yo colt by Vampirical, has been very slow to mature. He has shown some improvement recently though. His last race of the year will determine if he has a future at Otsego Farms.

The other 3yo colts, Shatterstar and Sabretooth, have both performed pretty well, if not spectacularly.

Overall, a poor season for our stable. Next year could be a challenge as well due to the limited number of racers we'll be housing. The following horses (listed with their age for next racing season) are guaranteed spots:

A View to a Kill - 5M
Sabretooth - 4M
Shatterstar - 4M
Huntress - 3F
Starfire - 3F
Ultron - 3M
Crossbones - 2C (Nightwing x In Spirit)
House of M - 2F (War Machine x Classical Music)
Nebula - 2F (Dubai Gold x Nova)
War Hammer - 2C (War Machine x Shattered Record)

Everyone else is on the chopping block. If I see some nice performances this weekend, it is very possible that either Kostya, Tombstone, and/or Titanium will be back for another racing season. Domino will stay on either as a racer for another year or as a broodmare.

Bring on 2013.

Saturday, September 05, 2009

Miscellaneous mayhem...


STABLE ROSTER
As the 2012 season approaches it's conclusion, Otsego Farms has begun the culling process that was necessary to make room for the influx of foals.

In the past week, four horses have been sold. They were 5yo male Eminem, 3yo filly Rich, 2yo filly Katana, and the foal Sovereign Hill.

During that same period, an opportunity to reacquire the 3yo Domino presented itself and a deal was struck with Steven of Golden Acres which will bring the War Machine sired and Otsego Farms bred filly back to Michigan. "We're still trying to decide whether to race her another year or send her to the breeding shed" confided Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber.

Four additional sales must be made prior to breeding season. Three of them will be very difficult. The fourth, Petenwell, will go back to Smokey's Stable.

PF FORUM
I think I'll go mad if I open the forum page up once more and see the same topics listed again. I bet I check it 5 times a day and for the past couple of days, the same tired old topics have hung on and on. I'm afraid to look again. Will someone please come up with a fresh PF-related topic?

SALES PAGE
As mentioned in the Forum, many of the racers for sale on the sales page (especially the buy-now horses) are a waste of money. Honestly, I wonder what people are thinking when they buy some of them. Even the least brilliant of us can look at a horses race history and determine if it is worthy of a stall.

I follow some simple rules:
  1. If a horse is 2yo and lightly raced (less than 4 races) I will usually take a chance if the horse catches my fancy for any reason and if the breeding is acceptable and it hasn't shown a propensity for last place finishes.
  2. If the horse is older than 2 and has shown flashes of speed (PSR's above 85), I will consider it as long as it hasn't consistently finished in the bottom third of it's races.
I will not ever buy a horse that has a long history of poor PSR's, several last place finishes, or has never hit the board in 6 or more races. I don't care if the price is $1, the horse is not worth owning.

Here are some recent purchases and how I see them...

Doire 4f $100 - A broodmare prospect I presume. Last place in six out of eight lifetime races. I'll pass even at just a C-Note.

Feud 2c $5500 - Just three races. Nice breeding. Acceptable PSR's. I'm in.

Hauntingly 3c $2000 - Has had his chances in 12 career races. Never hit the board and will be a 4yo next season. No thanks.

Light Touch 3f $5000 - Seventeen races with nary a win and a high-water mark PSR of 58. Ummm...nope.

Recital 4m $25,000 - Good speed, decent earnings, nice breeding. Why not?

Wrath 2c $1 - I'd rather have gum surgery than waste a stall on this horse.

HORSE NAMES
I'm putting together a list of superhero related names for my large crop this year. It's a little tougher coming up with so many. I may try to sprinkle in a few that don't fit my normal modus operandi, like I did last year with Deep Magic and You Know My Name.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Otsego owner waiting for stable changeover...


We've always fancied ourselves as a racing stable.

For many seasons, I dabbled in breeding but did not really commit to it. I always preferred buying veteran racers or unraced youngsters rather than making the stall-consumptive decision to breed my own foals and wait for them to attain racing age.

Because I wasn't housing broodmares and foals, I had room for plenty of racers. However, over the years, I've found that it is intrinsically more satisfying to breed and race your own; even if it means racing quite a bit less.

Hence my changeover to a breeding farm. It'll be a transformation over the next season and a half, but I'll emerge as a leaner organization. I envision 7-10 racers with the rest of my space being allotted to studs, mares, and foals.

Next year will be a transition year. I'll only have four new 2yo's, and one of them (War Hammer) will be a late bloomer who'll get a pass for most of the season.

In 2014 however, we will throw ten 2yo's into the fray, including some of our most compelling foals ever. Including...

Azrael (c) - Nightwing x Affirm Gal
Deep Magic (c) - War Machine x Isca's Revenge
Quasar (c) - Revenge x Nova
Xtra Run (f) - Run Missy Run x Xtra Heat
You Know My Name (f) - Union Jack x Shattered Record

Now, if I can just get through next year. I hope Nebula (Dubai Gold x Nova) can help ease the pain of waiting...

Thursday, August 20, 2009

One of us is crazy (and it's not me).


At 8pm today, the auctions for Eminem, Rich, and Katana expired. The high bids were $1000, $2000, and $1000 respectively.

"It really is perplexing", commented Otsego owner Jim Webber. "The fact that the PF community sees no value in these horses is quite surprising".

Eminem is a 5yo sprinting male who won his last race and collected a $42,000 purse. He was at auction with a slim $15,000 reserve and garnered just a single bid of $1000.

The 3yo filly Rich, who has earned over $100,000 this season, had a high bid of just $2000. "Shocking", Webber said with a shake of the head, "This horse has another year of racing in her and the makings of a decent broodmare to boot. $2000? Are you kidding? I've got pairs of shoes that cost more than that".

Katana is a lightly raced 2yo filly and the expectation was that the $15,000 reserve would be easily met. Again, another $1000 bid was all that was seen. As the auction deadline was reached, Webber exclaimed, "By the lack of interest, you'd think Katana was one of those 2yo donkey's throwing up negative PSR's. This gal only has 3 races under her belt and they've all been decent showings."

Webber stated that all three horses will remain at Otsego Farms until the end of the season, "I'll reevaluate their status at that time." As his iPhone rang with a trumpet fanfare Call to the Post ringtone, the Otsego Farms owner apologized. "Sorry. Hang on a sec please" and with a wink added, "it's probably a PF owner who wants to buy War Hammer for $1000".

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Finally. A bunch of perfectly appropriate broodmares for War Machine.


War Machine has been a stud for 5 years. During that time, he has sired a total of just 7 foals for Otsego Farms.

Why so few? Well, two reasons come to mind.

First, Otsego Farms used to have a very small breeding operation. Second, up to this point our broodmares haven't been quite right for him.

Happily, both of those problems have been rectified this season.

We've made a commitment to breed 10-12 foals every year, half of which will come from War Machine. And, we've taken drastic steps to acquire nice mares, specifically chosen with the Triple Crown Champion in mind.

Immortal, Second Strike, and False Demon were all picked up primarily due to their compatibility with War Machine. These mares, along with Nova and the occasional leased mare, (Isca's Revenge last year and Bold Alanna this year) have given me new hope in tapping War Machine's potential as a stud.

We're very excited to finally have the means to start cranking out more War Machine foals.

Incidentally, Shattered Record, In Spirit, Affirm Gal, and Ace Of Grace will produce my future turf stayers, who will usually be sired by Nightwing and Union Jack.

Friday, August 14, 2009

For Heavens sake...someone stop me!


I swore I wasn't gonna do it. Buy any more horses, that is.

I've got 45 total stalls, 39 of which are currently occupied. I've got 11 foals coming in next year. As you can see, it doesn't add up very well. I gotta get rid of some horseflesh, not bring more aboard.

In fact, I made a small step in the right direction recently when I decided to send The Reflex back to Bally Doyle for future considerations. That actually opened 2 stalls for next year; hers and the foal she would have had.

I was feeling good and had even made plans as to which other horses would be sold to get me where I needed to be. Then Noble decided to have his stable blowout.

In spite of my resolve, I got to Mike early and picked up a couple nice horses. There were a few others that I coveted as well, but my sanity eventually reasserted itself, in the nick of time.

I just couldn't resist the broodmare False Demon. She is Prefer, Prefer, Prefer on dirt and has distance capability of 10-16 furlongs (best 12). That make her a picture perfect match for War Machine. So, the stall improvement I gained from The Reflex (and foal) is gone.

Then I saw the filly Xtra Run, and it was love at first site. She's Run Missy Run x Xtra Heat and that, my friends, ought to be a very fast horse. If not, the PF breeding program is in line for major revisions.

Those of you who own HRF know that Xtra Heat has the highest speed rating in the game and RMR, of course, cranked out world records like a Pez dispenser. Translation: Xtra Run should be fast. And, the fact that she has Classic distance stamina also bodes very well.

So... I'm in a stall crunch again. Some of my boys will have to hit the sales page after this weekend.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

2013 Racing string decisions...


The 2012 season is winding down and the time for tough decisions is here.

OK, I admit it. I've been procrastinating. I know I need to clear at least 5 more stalls, but I've chosen to let it slide a while longer to see what happens. Some recent developments have further confused the issue.

Here is a laundry list of horses that will/may be shipped off before next season:
  1. Eminem - He'll be a 6yo in 2013 and hasn't exactly been stellar this year. He won his last race though and that makes me wonder if he still hasn't got enough to stick around another season. Chances of going: 90%

  2. Petenwell - He'll also be a 6yo next year. He's still competitive though and usually has a 50/50 chance of posting a PSR of 100. If he goes, it'll be back to Smokey's. Chances of going: 70%

  3. Kostya - Won his last race and still has good speed. Plus he'll only be 5 next year. Chances of going: 10%

  4. The Reflex - Acquired in a swap with Bally Doyle for Rogue. Pretty much done as a racer and I was thinking broodmare all the way when I got her. However, I may need to pare down by one mare, and if I do, she'll be the one who goes. Chances of going: 60%

  5. Rich - She also won her last race and is still a young 3yo, so the jury is still out. However, she's not spectacular and I really need the stall so she may have to be sacrificed. Chances of going: 40%

  6. Tombstone - I like him and I think he has upside, but his progress has been pretty slow. Chances of going: 15%

  7. Katana - I was crucified in the forum for making a behind the scenes deal to acquire her (Otsego Unethical was the topic headline). After all that grief, she has not panned out. Chances of going: 75%

  8. Titanium - Spent $750,000 at auction to buy this filly because of her sire, Dubai Gold. She has also been a disappointment. Because of the high investment, she may get a little more time to prove herself, but maybe not. Chances of going: 33%

  9. Leaning Tower - A nicely bred colt that I bought for a song. I figured he'd crap out and I'd sell him at season end. He came up with a nice 2nd place recently and spun out a 94 PSR. He will probably get another year to prove himself. Chances of going: 15%

Five of these horses are gonna go. Maybe only four if one of them is The Reflex, because that would mean one less foal next year as well. I have just a few weeks to sort it out. If you have input, I'm listening.

Thursday, August 06, 2009

Otsego studs knock out competition.


War Machine. Nightwing. Union Jack. Three successful fighters who were capable of going the distance.

War Machine usually delivered his knockout punch early. Wire-to-wire wins were his stock in trade.

Nightwing got stronger in the late rounds. When the competition was getting leg weary, The Iron Horse would land a haymaker and blow past his rubber-legged competition.

Union Jack was the quiet assassin. Never the flamboyant superstar, he would simply lull the competition into complacency, then outpoint them for the victory.

All three were stayers. All three were stars. Wonder why more stables haven't made arrangements to their send breeding mares to Otsego Farms?

Not including internal Otsego spots, War Machine has 6 bookings, Nightwing has 2, and Union Jack has just one.

"Frankly, it's preposterous", Otsego owner Jim Webber recently exclaimed, then softened a bit and continued, "It's really my own fault though because I have done absolutely no advertising, nor do I intend to."

Webber continued, "These guys were all heavyweight champs and they should be getting a full book every year, but it's really no problem. We don't charge for the spots anyway. We typically trade breeding rights in order to acquire the studs we want. That's how we got our Run Missy Run, Jenny's My Gal, and Doomsday slots this year, so it's worked out pretty well."

When asked about his own breeding plans this year, Webber shrugged and said, "That's all for today fella's. I gotta fly. I'm off to the gym for a half hour on the heavy bag." Then he motioned to a passing Otsego groom and chuckled, "Hey Mitch, you got that picture of LaFleur taped on that bag yet?"

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Why does this horse have a hold on me?


I can't quite put my finger on the reason why, but Tombstone has wormed his way into my heart and I'm finding it increasingly difficult to consider parting with him, even though my head is demanding it.

He has been less than stellar as a racer thus far, compiling a career record of 13-0-3-0. But he has shown some signs of life lately with consecutive 2nd place finishes.

His highest PSR is 95. In fact, that is the only time he has gone above 90. And yet, his surface and distance versatility are very admirable and hint at future success. Plus, the fact that his sire Vampirical was something of a late bloomer bodes well for Tombstone down the road.

The bottom line is, in spite of a pressing need to eliminate horses and provide much needed stall space for foals, I don't think Tombstone will be sacrificed. I like him and I have confidence that he will improve. He stays.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Be reasonable. Do it my way.

This is a transcript of a recent telephone conversation between Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber and another stable owner (SO) who shall remain unidentified.

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

JW: Hello. This is Jim Webber speaking.


SO: Hi Jim, this is **** *****. Have you got a few minutes to talk?


JW: Sure ****. I've gotta get down to the training barn by 2:30 to check on Nebula, but I can spare a few minutes. What's on your mind?


SO: There has been a formal complaint lodged against Otsego Farms for an unauthorized horse purchase last season. I got wind of it and thought I'd give you a heads-up.


JW: What the f*** are you talking about?


SO: You made a private offer and bought *** directly from the owner when he was concurrently for sale via auction.


JW: Yeah. So what? Is that illegal?


SO: Well, no. Of course not.


JW: Then what is the problem?


SO: Evidently, some owners feel that you and others who employ this tactic are acting unethically. They feel that by shortcutting the auction, you are gaining an unfair advantage. Furthermore, they feel that this strategy, when employed by a veteran stable, may exacerbate the feelings of inferiority that some new stables experience.


JW: You're not serious.


SO: Ummm...yes I am.


JW: Hmmm. Well that certainly makes one think. How about this as a compromise? I'll keep doing exactly what I want, and you can tell them to *** ****.

END OF TRANSCRIPT

Friday, July 24, 2009

Stop, Hammer time?


Otsego Farms is overdue for a bona fide superstar. We're hoping that long wait will end in 2013 with the introduction of War Hammer.

The imposing 17hh light gray colt will debut for Otsego Farms next season and it won't be a moment to soon for our liking. He's out of Shattered Record, who has produced a couple of talented horses in her first two tries, Shatterstar and Starfire. Both of whom were sired by Nightwing.

War Hammer as hinted by his name, was sired by the incomparable War Machine. This has considerably raised the bar on expectations. He's been a little slow to mature, so he may not hit the track until very late next year, but we expect at least a couple of tuneups before turning him fully loose in the 2014 season.

War Hammer (2011), 17 hand light gray colt
By War Machine out of Shattered Record by Black Shatter

This horse will mature at the average rate (3-4).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse dislikes soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse is good on hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse likes a lot of distance.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Nightwing AR revealed!


In light of the recent release of the War Machine AR, Otsego Farms connections have decided to follow suit with Nightwing.

Dubbed by Otsego trainers as "The Horse without Fear" and "The Iron Horse", Nightwing ran 46 career races in 3 seasons, and never ran a race that wasn't a GR1 or a GR2.

He was a classic stayer who started slow and had a fierce finishing kick. In the breeding shed, he is most notable as the sire of the Bonai superstar, Daredevil.

Nightwing, 17.2 hand bay colt
By Gander out of Mrs Bently by Euclase

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early, ready for the Derby.
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse will be near peak potential for the Derby.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse is ok on soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse is ok on soft turf.
This horse doesn't like a stretch duel. May not fight to keep the lead at the wire.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has a mind of its own and likes to run at its own pace.
This horse has average curve handling abilities.
This horse doesn't do more work than it has to to win. Once it gets the lead, it eases up.
This horse handles traffic ok.
This horse has consistency problems. Doesn't always meet expectations.
This horse is a machine! Recovers quickly from fatigue and ready to race again.
This horse has average weight carrying capacity.
This horse stalks the pace.
This horse has good acceleration.
This horse is a slow starter out of the gate.
This horse has average speed.
Handles 1 1/4mi to 2mi, best distance 2mi.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Ummm.... That horse looks awful strong.


The Horse Racing Fantasy game, which is the engine for Photo Finish, rates a horses Speed and Stamina in the following manner:

EXCELLENT
VERY GOOD
GOOD
FAIR
POOR

As far as speed goes, you see a lot of Excellent ratings and many of the horses with "Excellent" speed are unsuccessful as racers. There are just too many other factors that go into the makeup of a thoroughbred racer. Excellent speed, in and of itself, is not enough. Remember Atmospheric Buzz? He had Excellent speed.

Excellent stamina however, is a completely different story. It is a very rare commodity and virtually guarantees a successful career. Just today, Mike of Noble Farms pointed out that there are currently only four active horses in PF that possess Excellent stamina. Three of them are:

Color of Fame
Ton Of Luck
Heat Seeker

They are all top-tier talents. Their success is obviously attributable in large part to their outstanding stamina.

Well, step aside gentlemen. There is a new sheriff in town.

Say hello to an up-and-coming 2yo by the name of Gradient (Memcay x Perfect Bell) that has that elusive Excellent stamina rating. He is gonna be a beast. Bet the farm on it.

Bred by Rainbow, this 17.1h black beauty has a current record of 3-1-1-1, and has gotten better in each race as the distance has lengthened. In his last race, an 11 furlong affair at Shenandoah Downs, he finished 1st in a field of 15 while posting a 108 PSR and setting a track record.

This guy is the Incredible Hulk and he's about to go on a rampage...

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Let's all try to get real, OK?


Four races in 31 days.

If this particular horse does not scratch this weekend, it'll be her fourth race in 31 days.

My position as Photo Finish Chief Bully-Boy and Lord High Executioner demands that I address this breach of protocol. What would make a stable owner put such unreasonable demands on one of their horses?

It's not a new stable, so it can't be ignorance. In fact, the perpetrator is the owner of one of our most renowned stables, effectively ruling out poor management as well.

It really can't be greed since this stable has funds far exceeding my own, and I'm not exactly a pauper.

That leaves arrogance.

Do small strategies that most stables try to employ such as giving a horse adequate rest, using common sense, and adhering to some semblance of reality simply not apply in this stables case?

Sometimes these bad decisions come back to haunt you...

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

First time ever! War Machine AR published.


Dubai Juvenile. Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Dubai World Cup. Kentucky Derby. Preakness Stakes. Belmont Stakes. Breeder's Cup Classic.

He won them all, cementing his place among the Photo Finish all-time greats.

Now, for the first time, War Machine's AR is being made public...

War Machine, 15.3 hand chestnut colt
By Curule out of Mystic Lady by Thunder Gulch

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early, ready for the Derby.
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.
This horse will be near peak potential for the Derby.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse prefers soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse is good on hard turf.
This horse is ok on soft turf.
This horse doesn't like a stretch duel. May not fight to keep the lead at the wire.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse holds its position well in curves.
This horse cruises once it has the lead.
This horse handles traffic ok.
This horse has consistency problems. Doesn't always meet expectations.
This horse recovers fairly quickly between races.
This horse has average weight carrying capacity.
This horse is flexible; can run on lead, stalk, or come from behind.
This horse has good acceleration.
This horse has average speed out of the gate.
This horse has average speed.
Handles 1 1/4mi to 2mi, best distance 2mi.

Sunday, July 12, 2009

'Ware Lubbers. Crossbones will soon sail into these waters...


His sire is the famed router Nightwing. His dam In Spirit, was also a router and has the blood of Bellbuster and Housebuster flowing in her veins.

He'll run on dirt or turf and he has inherited his fathers tremendous health and resiliency. It looks like he'll run primarily at classic distances.

He's early to mature, so you'll see him in the Spring of 2013.

His name is Crossbones, and he'll see you all to Davy Jones.



Saturday, July 11, 2009

PROBLEM: Need more stall space. SOLUTION: Buy more horses?


With my commitment to breeding more foals, I have also made a commitment to tighten up my stall management.

My first act under the new tight-stall regime is.....BUY MORE HORSES!

OK. I admit it. I'm weak.

I can swear that I won't do buy another horse and then BANG! The first horse I covet I buy anyway.

It happen last week with 2yo Leaning Tower. In a previous post I explained my rationale for buying him.

Today it was Sovereign Hill. She is a handsome weaning filly by Park Lane out of Excellent Deal. I have always liked Park Lane from back in my early PF days and Excellent Deal, while not a star by any means, has produced a very successful runner by the name of Lord Fauntleroy, owned by Squirrel Racing.

So, I liked the cut of this fillies jib, and when I saw the price was just $1000, I just about had a seizure trying to hit the BUY NOW button before someone else got her.

That's it. I'm not buying another horse this season. I'm resolute on this matter!

Pssst! Hey Cecil, you wanna sell Ton Of Luck?

Thursday, July 09, 2009

Did you get the memo that mediocrity will not be tolerated?


I used to breed sparingly. One or two foals a year. That was it.

I guess I was too impatient to commit to breeding. I didn't want to wait the 2 or more seasons it takes to get a horse to the track. So, I dabbled a bit in breeding and simply bought ready-to-race horses to fill my string.

Sometime in the midst of my 10 seasons I've found that breeding is much more fulfilling. And, as a result, I'm committing to it wholeheartedly.

It's more fulfilling in two ways. First, it is intrinsically more satisfying to have a successful horse if you've bred it yourself. I think everyone will agree with that. Second, it's hard to buy good, unraced young horses. Sometimes you get lucky and find a Heat Seeker or a War Machine, but most of the time breeders keep the top prospects and sell the rest, often after the horse has demonstrated their mediocrity in a handful of races.

So, my new business plan will be to breed at least 10 new foals a year, utilizing War Machine as the primary stud. Nightwing and Union Jack will contribute to a somewhat lesser degree. Top-quality guest studs will fill in as necessary. This year, Jenny's My Gal and Run Missy Run will be employed. Also, former Otsego standout Doomsday will be used.

Because I have just 45 stalls at the moment, and have decided that 50 will be the upper limit of my size, I will not be able to carry much in the way of veteran racers. So, the second part of my new business plan will be to utilize what I refer to as "The Foxie Rule".

This means that sometime late in the 2yo season and certainly by the mid-point of the 3yo season, I'll be selling off the horses that do not show very significant ability. Simple math will demand this strict stable culling.

Assume 50 stalls.
10 foals
10 yearlings
10 2yos
10 broodmares
3 studs

That leaves 7 horses at ages of three or older. Obviously tough decisions will have to be made and they will be. Because going forward, only excellence will be acceptable.

Monday, July 06, 2009

AR's - Are they worthless?


When I first started at PF, I loved studying my AR's. They were the real deal back in those days too, with triple the information we get now.

The only problem was realism. When a foal is born, it doesn't come out with a tag on it's neck saying "I have a mind of my own" or "I have average ratability". That kind of thing has to be figured out by looking at the parents, and by what you observe on the track.

Plus there was so much information that many owners were making snap decisions about horses and shipping them out unraced, based solely on what they determined to be a "bad AR".

After much discussion and debate, Laurie decided to streamline the AR with just enough information to guide you on the horse surface and distance preferences.

Now I'm wondering if they should be further condensed to just surface preferences, or perhaps eliminated entirely?

My reason for this line of thought is Zach Attack, the 3yo colt from Laurabelle Racing. This fellow has illustrious parents in War Machine and Azeri. With that sire and dam, you'd think the foal would prefer running in the 8-10 furlong range. However, his AR states that he is a sprinter and that thinking is further bolstered by the POOR stamina rating that is assigned by the HRF game.

Pointgiven Stables, the breeder and original owner, followed those recommendations judiciously, running Zach Attack strictly between 4 and 6 furlongs with very little success. This is not an indictment of Pointgiven, as he was simply playing with the cards that he thought he was dealt. Eventually, frustrated by a seeming lack of talent, Pointgiven sent Zach Attack to Pearly Gates Farm for $31,000.

Zack Attack continued to perform in a mostly lackadaisical manner until he was allowed to run a little more distance. He cranked out an 86 PSR at 8.5 furlongs, then followed that up with a 95 PSR at 9 furlongs in the Wood Memorial. Hmmm....

His continued improvement went on the shelf for a couple months as Pearly Gates closed up shop. Enter Laurabelle, who noticed the breeding and the improvement as the distances got longer. He bought Zach Attack for $10,000 and entered him in the 9 furlong Grade One Swaps Stakes. The rest, as they say, is history.

He won, and earned a cool $300,000.

A sprinter? I think not.

Saturday, July 04, 2009

Tight market for top-quality mares


Recently on the PF Forum, Donny of Chiquita Lodge posted his desire to obtain a "top-class" broodmare, and his willingness to part with up to $5,000,000 in order to meet that objective.

By top-class and for that kind of money, I'm assuming he means someone of the Chatterbox - Promised Land - Flow Diagram - Scenic Sheba - Southern Charm variety. Even for $5M, it may be very tough to pry a mare of that ilk from it's current owner, unless you happen to be very friendly with someone who is about to leave the game or get out of the breeding business.

Fortunately, there is another slightly less celebrated level of broodmare which may be able to deliver quality foals nonetheless. That is the level of broodmare that Otsego Farms employs.

Oh, I have tried my hand at acquiring a super-mare. Perhaps I wasn't determined enough. Perhaps I was simply too cheap (Yeah, that's probably it). In any event, I've been unable to get one, so I've had to make do with mares I've raced, or bought off the rack.

I bred and raced Nova (Housebuster x Raging Fever) and she was extremely talented and on-paper, appears to be my best broodmare. With only $1.7M in earnings though, she is far off the pace of the super-mares, even though her overall PSR achievements are probably as good as any of them.

I've tried to improve my band of broodmares this year by getting quality mares at reasonable prices. A couple that I bought recently at relatively modest cost are Second Strike ($500K) and Ace Of Grace ($690K).

Second Strike specializes on dirt at the 8F-9F range. She has gone over 100 PSR 14 times at these distances and looks like a great match for War Machine in the breeding barn.

Ace Of Grace has legitimate 16F ability, having raced that distance 7 times, four of which went over 100 PSR. It looks to me that she can produce nice routers. Union Jack and Nightwing are future studs from Otsego Farms and I have hopes that she can visit the likes of Memcay, Thunder Arctic, and A Bus in the future as well.

These mares, along with Shattered Record, Affirm Gal, and In Spirit, form the core of my breeding operation.

Superstars when they raced? Nope. But thay are solid and fully capable of producing successful foals.

Could I spend $5M on a mare. Yes. Would I? Nope.

Did I mention that I'm Dutch on my mothers side?