Very peculiar, I must say...

A horse's base ratings are fluid.  For example, factors such as rest (or lack thereof) can affect them in the short run.  So I don't generally panic when they do so.

But... for the third straight week, I have had a horse come up with a lower than expected number in a big race, for no discernible reason.  Two weeks ago it was Le Chiffre, last week it was Rico Suave, and this week, in the Kentucky Derby no less, it was Tag You're It.

I really can't make heads or tails of it any more.  They are all in their AR-reputed prime and well-rested, yet out of the blue, the HRF game arbitrarily sticks it to them.  In the Kentucky Derby, Tag was the 7-2 favorite for Heavens sake, but if I had seen what his numbers were at post time, I would have picked him to finish in last place.

What's even more odd, is that my prognostications in the KYD seemed to have a derogatory affect on other horses as well.  For example:

1. Thought Fear This was a "massive threat" to win this race.  His numbers declined.
2. Said Highland Games was "well-rested and dangerous".  His numbers declined.
3. Preferred Regal Sweep to Thousand Slew and defended the opinion in this forum.  His numbers declined.
4. And of course I mentioned Tag You're It as "one of the strongest horses in the race".  His numbers declined.

It can work the other way too.  I said that Highway to Hell "just won't have the tools to get back into the race".  His numbers went up and he finished like gangbusters to come in 3rd.

Pretty much every horse I said something good about had a numerical and performance setback, while pretty much every horse I had misgivings about performed better than I expected.

Haha... I think I'm out of the prediction business until further notice.

Please take note...

I have noticed that a couple of you have posted your comment twice because it looked like it didn't show up on the blog.  You don't need to do that.

I installed comment moderation a while ago because some knucklehead was posting derogatory comments.  That means that I have to OK the comment before it goes on-line.  Sometimes it takes a bit for me to get the notification and approve the comment, so you don't need to bother to re-posting it.  I'll get to it.

I'll approve everything, even if you disagree with me, as long as the comment is constructive and not simply spiteful.

2020 Kentucky Derby Preview

A field of 15 colts will contend for the 2020 Kentucky Derby.  With the broadest of definitions, these horses can be broken down as follows:

Speed Horses:

Mass Money

Spanish Gigolo

Scalpel

Stamina Horses:

Ben Nevis

Highway to Hell

Prince Phillip 

Tag You're It

Highland Games

Mr Gardiner

Fear This

Horses that may have weight issues:

Mass Money

Prince Phillip

Ruger

Sweet Consort 

Thousand Slew

Mr Gardiner

Horses that may have rest issues:

Ben Nevis

Elementary

Mass Money

Spanish Gigolo

Sweet Consort

Speed horses are in short supply this year, with only three that have top speed values above 90.  Of he three, Mass Money is most suitable at 10F, but Spanish Gigolo, and Scalpel can probably make the distance, with Scalpel being the more likely to falter in the last furlong.

Stamina horses abound in 2020.  No less than seven have stamina ratings of 72 or higher, with Prince Phillip topping the list with a lofty 74.  The Prince may be better suited for the 12F Belmont in my opinion though, as I don't think a 74 has ever won the Kentucky Derby.  

Six horses may have difficulty with the expected 126lb weight.  Ruger and Sweet Consort will be the most adversely affected.

There are five horses who ran traditional, but late Derby prep races.  They will be hampered by short rest before the big race, especially if they continue on to the Preakness two weeks afterwards.

So... who will win?  Let's start with who won't.  

Mass Money and Sweet Consort are the only two horses who show up on the Weight Concern list AND the Rest Concern list.  Therefore, I think it is safe to assume that neither will contend in this race.

Ruger has solid but unspectacular numbers, with the exception of a sky-high kick rating.  He also has failed to find the winners circle in six career starts.  He did well, finishing 2nd in the Florida Derby carrying a light 115lbs.  With 126lbs on his back in the Derby however, he'll be sluggish and a non-factor.

Speaking of solid but unspectacular... Elementary also fits that bill.  He's strong and can carry some weight, but his other attributes are just not good enough to win this race.

That leaves eleven horses and I think that any of them could win under the right circumstances.  

Scalpel is a speedy horse that aquitted himself well in the UAE Derby against mediocre competition. He will find the higher calibre of talent in his race to be more of a challenge.  He should lead the way with his superior early and top speed, but when the chips are on the line in the last furlong or two, he will probably give way. 

Spanish Gigolo is very similar, talent-wise, to Scalpel, but with a bit more staying power.  He won the Toyota Blue Grass, but did so against a buch of nobodies.  His Achilles Heel will be lack of rest. He's sketchy at 10F to begin with, and with a scant 18 days of rest... hasta la vista baby.

Thousand Slew and Regal Sweep are also a similarly equipped pair.  These two have a lethal combination of speed and stamina which translates almost perfectly at this distance.  Of the two, I like Regal Sweep a little better because he has a better kick rating, can carry more weight, and has more rest.

Continuing the pairing-up scheme, Ben Nevis and Highway to Hell line up very nicely.  Frankly, I think these two are the least likely to win this race out of the eleven that I said had a chance.  They are not among the fastest or the strongest, which probably relegates them to the middle of he pack. Highway to Hell is very slow out of the gate, and just won't have the tools to get back into the race. Ben Nevis does not have the slow gate speed to worry about, but does have the added burden of insufficient rest.

Fear This is a bit of a wildcard with just a single start in his career... but it was a stunning debut.  He beat speed horse Mass Money at the Gallery.com and did it easily.  This horse is a massive threat to win this race.

Highland Games had a poor showing his last time out in the Dubai World Cup, but that can be explained by the decision to send him with only 18 days off.  Now well-rested, he will be dangerous.

Mr Gardiner was super in the UAE Derby, posting a 1:58.70 and finishing in 2nd behind Derby no-show, Power Genius.  That time shows what he is capable of, and he was carrying 126lbs when he did it.  A legit chance to win.

One of the strongest horses in the race, as measured by kick, stamina, and weight-carrying ability, Tag You're It is a slow starter who finishes fast.  If he can stay close to the action, he will definitely be a factor.

Prince Phillip is an 87/74 beast who has the ability to win races like this based strictly on his overwhelming stamina.  He has a nice kick number as well, and those things combined to let him score a 3:16.85 at 16F earlier this year.  I have very slight concerns with regard to his ability to carry 126lbs and the fact that he will be working on a little over 3 weeks of rest.

PREDICTION:

I really had a hard time separating the last five horses because they are all actually very close in raw ability.

I will drop Fear This just because his track record is so brief.  That being said, his debut was marvelous and if does hit the board, it wouldn't surprise me at all.

Prince Phillip will also get eliminated because of the minor concerns I have plus the fact that an 87/74 has never won this race.

That leaves Highland Games, Mr Gardiner, and Tag You're It.  

WIN: Tag You're It

PLACE: Highland Games

SHOW: Mr Gardiner 

Quick Hits

There is great satisfaction in looking at my stable and seeing the broodmares Promised Land, Southern Charm, and Memorabilia at the top of the list.

I'm a little nervous about Le Chiffre's race this weekend.  His numbers dipped radically in his final race of 2019 and I attributed it to shortish rest.  His AR states that he will have a long peak, so I figured he'd be good to go as a 5yo, but that stamina drop to 72 in his last race has spooked me.

I noticed that I have two 4yo colts, Helikaon and Rico Suave, that have never been out of the money in their careers.  Rico finished 2nd in both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont last year.

My current crop of 3yo's are looking to be a rather pedestrian bunch... with the exception of Tag You're It, who I cannot take credit for because I didn't breed him.  He was bred by Laurabelle and donated as a prize to the Pick Winners contest a couple seasons ago.

Battlestar is racing this weekend, so we'll see if there is anything left in the tank as a 6yo.  He had three wins last year and was pretty consistently over 100 PSR's.  His "average" peak though put him at risk of a precipitous falloff in ability.

Spaceman from JD Kayll Race Club is running this weekend as a 9yo!  I've been wondering for the past couple years when this guy was gonna retire, but one look at his record explain why Josh keeps racing him.  He's making money!

Only 5 horses in the $1.8M February Stakes?  And two of them from Absinthe.  Seems like a high profile race like that would have attracted a little more interest.  I wanted to throw in one of my girls but it would have been a waste of money since I do not have a miler who can compete with the likes of Elvira or Overdue.

I really like 4yo Simply Charming.  She is not overly blessed with raw ability, but she seems to have a real knack for being competitive.  Her record now is 16-9-2-3.  I'd like to keep her on after she retires but I really don't have the need for a sprinter/miler type.  

Tesseract has the ability to be a Kentucky Derby horse, but his surface pickiness is really hampering my plans.  He is a scratch machine!  I doubt he'll qualify because I can't get the bugger to run.

Broodmare quality improvement

I have always been on the lookout for quality broodmares.  But as we all know, good ones are very expensive and very difficult to obtain.  That's because everyone else is also on the lookout for quality broodmares... which makes the availability of Promised Land and Memorabilia all the more surprising.

Promised Land was used as a broodmare in 2020, and then was summarily dismissed to Endless Vista.  Memorabilia was sent to Endless Vista with the dissolution of Hopeful Farm, then inexplicably ignored during the EOY Auction.

I was able to pick these two gems up for $100,000 apiece to augment my breeding operation.

It's true that Promised Land, at age 19, has only one season left in the breeding shed.  But I have wanted her for as long as I can remember, so I could not pass up the opportunity to own her, even if it is only for one year.  My plan is to pair her with Nightwing (if I can pry a spot from Smokey) to try to recreate another Daredevil.  

Memorabilia, at age 16, has a few productive years left, and will certainly be a mainstay in my band of broodmares until her retirement.

Now, these two newcomers, along with Southern Charm, Enlightenment, House of M, In Spirit, Champions Dream, and Quake, give me a rather spiffy bunch of gals.

Alas... if only Promised Land was just 10 or 12...

Fun With Numbers: And They're Off!

We've finally made it. It's the eve of the start to the 2020 racing season. In celebration of this national holiday (Okay, it isn't really a national holiday, but c'mon, shouldn't it be?), I figured that I'd take a look at the races. The Fun With Numbers way.

Big brother is watching...

I hate anonymous comments.  If you have something snarky to say, then at least have the balls to attach your name to it.

I've installed comment moderation on the blog.  So... anonymous comments will not happen any more.

Hopefully, this will not inhibit constructive comments, be they positive or critical.

How Much Is That AR Worth???

There has been a lot of discussion about how much value to place on an AR in determining how valuable or how well a horse will race.  This brief article will show you how I use the AR along with other numbers in determining what to do with a horse.

This is not meant as an advertisement in any way for a filly I have on the sales page.  Read the entire article please.

Zeldas Folly (2019), 16 hand bay filly

By Gravedigger out of Annibynnol Meth by A. P. Indy

This horse has average speed.

Zelda’s Folly has average speed.  That means her top speed will be between 88 and 90.  Tolerable on the top end but not much to speak about on the lower end.  Her parents speed was 89 and 90.  So the average speed is in line with what would be expected. 

We have no real way on knowing what her stamina is based on her AR.  Her parent’s stamina was 72 and 69.  So somewhere in there would be expected unless there was a random number.

The best possible numbers with average speed would be 90-72.  This number would be changed because it is over the 161 threshold.  It would be changed to 90-71 if it were a colt.  This example is a filly so her max stamina would be 70.  Her best possible numbers would be 90-70.  Not great but with proper placing could be workable. 

Here is a list of her possible top speed and stamina numbers.  90-70 (18% chance), 90-69 (9% chance), 89-70 (36% chance) and 89-69 (18% chance).  Her stamina number could be lower if it was a random lower number.  The last 3 combinations would be very difficult to work with for competing in the higher levels.  I believe the 90-70 combination has only about a 18% chance of happening.  This is why I placed her on the sales page. 

Wausau (2020), 15.3 hand bay filly

By Footloose out of Elusive State by A Bus

This horse has good speed. Could set records.

Wausau is a much better combination.  Her parents top speed was matched at 91 and their stamina’s were matched at 70.  With her AR stating she has good speed I know her speed will be 91 or better.  

We still do not know about the stamina number but with her parents matched at 70 that is a good bet.  If her speed is better than 92 then her stamina would be adjusted downward.  I believe she has an 81% chance of being a 91-70 when she matures on the track. 

Hope this helps in showing how an AR can be used to determining value of a PFSim horse.  

Top Speed and Stamina Stats

While working on some stats for the distance / kick article, I looked up all the winners of races that had purses of $1,000,000 or more.  From this list I grouped them into similar distances to see what ratings the horses had that were taking home the top prizes.  I did eliminate the 2 year olds because of potential maturity issues and fillies only races because of the stamina cap.

Sprinters (7.5 furlongs or less)

In the 4 races, 3 of them had top speed of 94 with stamina rating of 67. 

There was one with 91 speed and 69 stamina.

Milers and Short Routes (8 to 9.5 furlongs)

This group had 2 with top speed of 92 and stamina of 69. 

It also had 7 that had a top speed of 91.  Of that 7, 5 had stamina of 70 and 2 had stamina of 69.

There were 4 that had top speed of 90 and stamina of 71.

Derby Distance (10 furlongs and one 10.5 furlong)

This group had the least distance difference but the widest rating range.

There were 3 with the fastest top speed was 91 with stamina of 70. 

There was 3 that had top speed of 90 and stamina of 71. 

Two with top speed of 88 and stamina of 73.

There were also 2 with top speed of 87 and stamina of 74. 

Distance (12 furlongs and longer)

This group had mainly 3 top speeds represented. 

There were 3 with top speeds of 89 and stamina of 72. 

5 had top speeds of 88 and stamina of 73.

6 had top speeds of 87 and stamina of 74 (5 of these were winners at 12 furlongs). 

One had top speed of 91 and stamina of 70 (restricted race for 3 year olds only)

"Lots of distance"

This actually started out as a response in the comments section of a previous article. Then, I started typing and figured that it might be better if I made it a post. Wasn't sure if there's a limit to how much you can put in a comment, and I can tend to go on a bit when I'm on a subject. So, here we are with a reply in the comment section that turned into a blog post of a sort.

Sprinter, Miler, Classic or Distance???

This horse appears to be a sprinter.

This horse appears to be primarily a miler.

This horse looks like it can run at classic distances.

This horse likes a lot of distance.

I believe that these are the most troublesome lines on the AR.  To try to help determine what those lines mean I started to look at the player stallions and their AR’s.  I chose the player stallions because of the access to the stallion AR's and was hoping that as players we kept the best stallions in the game.  

There are currently 172 player stallions that have the line that states whether they are going to be a sprinter, miler, classic or distance horse. 

I then looked at what is referred to as the “kick rating” for all those stallions to try to see if there was any relation.  These are the numbers I found. 

The average kick rating for the 172 stallions was 818.

Stallions with the sprinter classification had kick ratings from 458 – 700.

Stallions with the miler classification had kick ratings from 562-722.

Stallions with the classic classification had kick ratings from 658 – 928.

Stallions with the distance classification had kick ratings from 724 – 1250.

Since there were overlapping numbers between classifications I looked at how many stallions were in each classification.

There were 14 sprinters (8.1%), 32 milers (18.6%), classic 56 (32.6%) and distance 70 (40.7%).

I then looked at the stallion’s stamina number to see if there was any relation to the distance tag.

Here is the breakout for stallions with the different stamina ratings.

66 – 0 sprint, 0 miler, 0 classic, 1 distance

67 – 11 sprint, 2 milers, 4 classic, 3 distance

68 – 0 sprint, 6 milers, 3 classic, 5 distance

69 – 1 sprint, 7 milers, 5 classic, 6 distance

70 – 2 sprint, 3 milers, 9 classic, 7 distance

71 – 0 sprint, 7 milers, 13 classic, 16 distance

72 – 0 sprint, 5 milers, 9 classic, 11 distance

73 – 0 sprint, 1 miler, 7 classic, 9 distance

74 – 0 sprint, 1 miler, 7 classic, 12 distance

With the likes lots of distance line showing up in all the stamina numbers, I then wondered what effect the kick rating had on the outcome of races.  So I then looked at all the horses that were winners in purses of $1,000,000 or more.   The average kick rating of those 41 horses that were winners in purses over $1,000,000 was 881.  When the horses were eliminated that won races shorter than 8 furlongs, the average kick jumped to 914.

12 were distance only classification.

23 could be in either distance or classic classifications.

3 could be in classic or miler classifications.

1 could be in classic, miler or sprint classification.

2 could be in miler or sprint classification.

None were sprint only classification.

Based on those numbers I believe that the “distance” line is more of a way determining which horses will do better versus top competition.    

I know this is only one piece of the puzzle on what makes a horse successful but I will be paying more attention to this rating when purchasing or selecting horses to keep.

Legit shot at Derby contention...

I'm very happy to own a horse that I feel has a great shot at making the field for the Kentucky Derby.

Tag You're It is a huge chestnut colt by Take A Gander out of Status Tower.  TAG, of course, finished 3rd in the 2007 Kentucky Derby behind legends Pegasus Song and Lazy Loper.

In deference to his illustrious sire, Otsego trainers have taken to calling our colt Tag as well, and he certainly seems to be a chip off the old block.  At the end of 2019, his record was 5-2-1-1 with a string of three consecutive 100+ PSR's.  

He is extremely comfortable on dirt, and has the stamina for 12F, so it is felt that he can contend not just for the Derby and Preakness, but for the Belmont as well.  Of course, the first step is qualification, so he will undoubtedly be managed as carefully as possible in 2020 to ensure a berth in the Derby.

When asked about this colt's chances to gain a invitation to the KYD, Otsego owner Jim Webber was cautious, "We're gonna do our best to put him in a position to qualify, but sometimes things go wrong."  

Of course, with that comment, Webber was referring to the failure of Helikaon, a highly touted 3yo last year, to make the Derby cut.

In response to a question about other 3yo's that may pose an obstacle to Tag You're It, Webber said, "There are a lot of horses that concern me.  The first one that comes to mind though, is the Snowbank colt Graverobber.  We beat him in the Futurity and he got us in the Juvenile.  I'm sure our paths will cross again though."

Fun With Numbers: Fastest of the fast

As some of you may know, I'm a bit of a numbers guys. I've always been intrigued by them. Like messing around with them. Keep track of them. Compare them. As my daughter and girlfriend tell me, I'm weird. A dork. They're probably on to something. Anyway, I have this ridiculously large amount of Photo Finish related spreadsheets that I'm always fiddling with. I enjoy working with Excel spreadsheets. My daughter says this makes me REALLY weird. Oh well, if I can manage to bring myself to put fingers to keyboard on a semi-regular basis, we can possibly have some fun with my weirdness.

Oh hello! Nice to meet you. And you are.....?

I've got 16 two-year-olds who will be hitting the track this year and they are virtual strangers.  I was just checking them out and it's as if I'm looking at them for the first time.

When they were born, I poured over their AR's again and again, looking for strengths and weaknesses.  Slowly, the realization sunk in that it would be two seasons before they became relevant, so they slipped back into obscurity.

Now, on the cusp of a new racing season, they have sprung back to the forefront as a new source of possible excitement and potential disappointments.  Recently, I have spent a little time perusing those AR's, trying to re-familiarize myself with these horses... as I'm sure you are all doing.

The ones that jump out at me are:

Come What May - (Hepatic Flap x Nova)  I was expecting a sprinter/miler, but this colt appears to have more stamina.  However, he does have all the traits of a speed horse, so he may very well trend down to 8F if his stamina rating dips below 70.

Maleficent - (Union Jack x Ticket to Dance)  This filly will be a prototypical come-from-behind type, which is always a risky proposition.  However, she is born of two prodigious producers of Excellent stamina offspring, so I expect her to be a premier female 2-miler.

No Tears - (A Bus x Ace Of Grace)  His AR is eerily reminiscent of his sire's.  That alone is enough to generate optimism.  I expect him to be a dandy 12F horse, but perhaps just a bit under-powered to be elite at 16F.

Aha! Here they are!

Welcome to all new stables and hello to all old friends!

Here we are on the cusp of another Photo Finish racing season.  DJ's recent article and the arrival of my foals have awakened me from my long slumber, so it is time to dust off my spreadsheets and take a look at the situation for 2020.

Otsego Farms had one of it's most successful seasons in 2019, finishing 4th in earnings with $18.1M.  However, most of my top earners are getting on in years and I do not anticipate a repeat of the fabulous record of last year, which was spearheaded by an outstanding group of 3yo's.

My 3yo's this year are a mostly mediocre group.  There are a couple bright spots however.  Colts Tag You're It and Hella Good are both going to be on the Kentucky Derby trail, with Tag being the more likely to qualify.  Tesseract is also a talented colt, but his extreme surface sensitivity makes him unlikely to mount a serious challenge for the Derby.  The rest of my 3yo's have shown little to nothing thus far and may not make it through the season without significant improvement.

Of course, the entire 2yo batch is a mystery.  I like the look of a couple of the foals, but at this point the AR is all we have to go on, and as we all know, those can be misleading.

Let's race!

Well, hello Mr. Fancy Pants!

Since the new foals have hit the ground and reports are in the air that the new racing schedule is being worked upon, I figured that I'd fish out the keys to the site and see if they still fit in the lock. Awesome! Jim hasn't changed the locks on me...yet. Once everyone gets back into the swing of things, hopefully, the Insider starts bustling with activity. To kick things off, I'd like to introduce everyone to the first reported foal from new Otsego Farms stallion, Methy Bus. Say hello to Mr. Fancy Pants!

Mr. Fancy Pants (2020), 16.1 hand white colt By Methy Bus out of Brilliant Dancer by Brilliant
This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will enjoy a very long peak performance time, perhaps its entire racing career.
This horse is ok on hard dirt.
This horse is ok on soft dirt.
This horse is poor in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse prefers soft turf.
This horse is of average soundness.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse always comes from midpack.
This horse has good acceleration.
This horse breaks well out of the gate.
This horse has average speed.
This horse likes a lot of distance.

 I figure that I should start taking reservations now for his first season at stud. Get in before his 2030 book fills up. Act now! Don't get shut out!

A rose by any other name….

As we approach the last 10 weeks of racing (or 5 real life weeks!), attention is starting to shift from racing to breeding (not forgetting the End of Year Auction for those who didn’t make the grade on the track this year!)

For some this will see many many many hours spent pouring over databases,, analysing figures then inputting the data into highly sophisticated spreadsheets which will hopefully give them the data they want – ie which stallion/mare pairing will result in the next Frankel :)

Others will spend somewhat less time on this, using old fashioned methods such as if I put a 10f dirt mare with a 12f dirt stallion I should get a nice classic distance runner – so basically they are matching like with like.

And then you have the lastminute dot commers – who suddenly freak out at Week 52 realise they havent booked any stallions and just throw names into the spreadsheet and keep everything crossed that they don’t get a 2f dirt mudlark who matures at 6!

But they all have one thing in common – names. That’s right, no matter what method you use to breed your foals at the end of the day they must all race with a name!

In my first year I breed two foals – Skim the Hill and  Chaps Gal.  The first was a colt by Danehill out of Indian Skimmer so the name is reflective of the breeding.  Chaps Gal was a filly by High Chaparral out of Bosra Sham and again the names linked.

After that though as my breeding programme expanded so did my names (much to Laurie’s disgust/amusement in equal parts!).  In order to keep track of breeding upwards of 25 foals a year, I devised a system whereby I used a theme – for example one year I used songs by Duran Duran, another was films starring John Wayne – one of my more successful years was using Sherlock Holmes.  More recently I have taken inspiration from the books of Jane Austen (these are currently 2yr olds) and my last crop were named after Downton Abbey (both people and places).

Many other players do similar – some stick with movies (been there done that!), songs (copycats!), famous footballers (interesting especially as one is actually a filly!).  Some keep with the tradition of using the parents for inspiration.

With upwards of 600 foals born each year though, it is becoming increasingly difficult to use truly original names.  When submitting the breeding sheet to Laurie all foals are required to be named.  You can cheat and use the same name for both fillies and colts which is quite easy to do if you have to find 50+ names but I still like to try to keep them “sexed” so a filly will be a feminine version of the colts name, ie Mr or Mrs Bennet.

It would seem sensible that before submitting your sheet that names are checked to make sure that they are not already used – but this doesn’t always happen and results in a delay in producing the foals.  It takes miliseconds to check the database to see if the name is already used – but some still don’t take that time. The Stud Book also has an issue with apostrophes so when searching DON’T use it just put in the name up to the punctuation ie rather than Missy’s Bridle just put in MISSY.

There are also a few guidelines on the Rules page (see Chapter 9 Breeding) for spelling, length etc.  Within reason Laurie allows pretty much anything but historically anything racially offensive (not sure how A Rab got through but it raced for a few seasons before someone decided to take offense….), anything of an overtly sexual nature (Panty Liners didn’t make it!) and anything that when read aloud is just downright rude!! With players from all over the globe that can prove a challenge as what is OK in one country may be received totally different in another. 

Another little cheat is players putting an “s” at the end of a name already used or taking out a space, so if there is a horse in the database called High Hope there is nothing stopping you from calling your new foal HIGH HOPES but bearing in mind that when running the races they are done manually it could be the wrong horse is entered (its happened once or twice and then Laurie has to rename one of the horses to ensure it does happen again).  Same principle works for BATTLE SHIP which could be used as BATTLESHIP. 

At the end of the day there arent really that many rules for us as players to stick to when naming our precious foals but having a care for Laurie when she is entering races should be one of them :)  Its also fun to think that if you have a really unusual name to pronounce and that horse qualifies for the Breeders Cup, Laurie may well have to be calling it during our brilliant live BC Skypecast! (So wanted Semidemiquaver to get into the sprint!)

So good luck with your names this year and remember it doesn’t hurt to double triple check the Stud Book to see if that name you adore is already used :) You will be saving yourself and others valuable time by not having your pairing rejected!

As for me – what am I using this year – well that’s for me to know and you to find out :)

Concerns arise as 2020 season looms

The 2019 season has been very successful.  Especially gratifying was the emergence of a very strong crop of 3yo racers.  As the season wanes however, it is becoming increasingly apparent that my current batch of 2yo's will be found wanting.

I have managed just a single win out of the group.  The colt Hella Good (War Machine x On The Prowl) won the GR1 VRC Sires Produce Stakes and looked very good in the process.

Another colt, Tag You're It (Take A Gander x Status Tower), has performed well, with a current record of 2-0-1-1.  I picked up Tag as the prize for winning the Pick Winners Contest a while ago.  

Other than those two, it's been pretty bleak.  I won't go into the details, but I'm not seeing much that excites me.

Earlier this season, I sold off quite a few seasoned racers to make room for incoming foals.  With fewer veteran racers and the barren wasteland that is my 2yo string, I'm finding myself in a rather stark position for the remainder of the year and into 2020.

Of course I'll still have Le Chiffre, Helikaon, Infinity World, Kid Shelleen, Lapsus, Qi, Rico Suave, Simply Charming, and Scarlet Witch next season, so I'm not going to disappear into a black hole, but I am concerned nevertheless.

I wonder if I can squeeze another year out of Battlestar?

2019 Juddmonte International Stakes

This is a race with steeped tradition in the PF universe.  It has been won by such notables as Smart Money, A Bus, Malvern Hill, Jenny's My Gal, Camena's Thunder, Serengeti, Rogue Day, and Jake Sully.

 The 2019 field is on the small side with just six entries, with only two that could be considered headliners; the Bally Doyle colt Olympia and Penfold's Bene There, who finished second in this race last year.

Rounding out the field is Lucky Light from Chiquita, Na'vi from Elite, Qi from Otsego, and Cold Steel's Shi No Numa.

After a cursory review, I would rule out Shi No Numa as a serious contender.  Although he is the fastest horse in the race, he will not be completely comfortable at this distance.  My feeling is that he would be better at 9F.  This race at 10.5F will be a little out of his wheelhouse.

Next down is Lucky Light, who can make the distance, but is simply facing four other horses that are superior talent-wise.

Na'vi, who is a notoriously slow starter, will also finish out of the top three.  He should finish 4th in this race, but will not hit the board as he is also outmatched by the top three.

I should note that Shi No Numa and Lucky Light are both 3yo's who will enjoy at least a 9 lb weight advantage over the older horses.  I don't think this will be enough to get them on the board, but one or  possibly both may find a way to squeak past Na'vi in the final placings.

So, that leaves Bene There, Olympia, and Qi as the three who I feel will hit the board.

Bene There is a consistent racer and had a solid positive experience in this race last year, finishing 2nd behind Jake Sully.  This distance suits him well and he is well-rested.

Olympia is always a major threat although he is turning around very quickly for this race.  It was just 13 days ago when he finished 3rd in the Australian Cup.

Qi is really the wild card in this race.  He only has three career races, with a win his last time out at 10F in the Lexington Stakes.  The distance is in his comfort zone and as a 3yo, he will also benefit from a weight advantage.

PREDICTION:

1st: Qi

2nd: Bene There

3rd: Olympia

The short rest will hamper Olympia.  Bene There will take advantage of that to finish second.  Qi, with ample rest, a weight advantage, and better speed than both of the others, will prevail.

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