A horse's base ratings are fluid. For example, factors such as rest (or lack thereof) can affect them in the short run. So I don't generally panic when they do so.
But... for the third straight week, I have had a horse come up with a lower than expected number in a big race, for no discernible reason. Two weeks ago it was Le Chiffre, last week it was Rico Suave, and this week, in the Kentucky Derby no less, it was Tag You're It.
I really can't make heads or tails of it any more. They are all in their AR-reputed prime and well-rested, yet out of the blue, the HRF game arbitrarily sticks it to them. In the Kentucky Derby, Tag was the 7-2 favorite for Heavens sake, but if I had seen what his numbers were at post time, I would have picked him to finish in last place.
What's even more odd, is that my prognostications in the KYD seemed to have a derogatory affect on other horses as well. For example:
- Thought Fear This was a "massive threat" to win this race. His numbers declined.
- Said Highland Games was "well-rested and dangerous". His numbers declined.
- Preferred Regal Sweep to Thousand Slew and defended the opinion in this forum. His numbers declined.
- And of course I mentioned Tag You're It as "one of the strongest horses in the race". His numbers declined.
It can work the other way too. I said that Highway to Hell "just won't have the tools to get back into the race". His numbers went up and he finished like gangbusters to come in 3rd.
Pretty much every horse I said something good about had a numerical and performance setback, while pretty much every horse I had misgivings about performed better than I expected.
Haha... I think I'm out of the prediction business until further notice.
4 comments:
My real life wagers have a similar effect on horses. I have considered contacting trainers and owners to promise to never wager on their horses for a modest monthly stipend.
I think you have fallen victim to the "consistency" rating that HRF uses. This info used to be on the AR's but is not any longer.
I think it is much harder than in years past to get away with an inconsistent horse. With so many horses very close in ratings a drop of one number whether speed or stamina can easily drop a horse out of contention in a race.
You might be right Chris, but these particular horses have not displayed much variance in the past.
You are also right with your second point. I've noticed that is is getting harder and harder to handicap races because so many of them are cookie-cutter copies with regard to the base numbers. Nowadays, it seems like the horses are separated, ability-wise, by the unseen factors in their makeup. I've got a perfect example in Kid Shelleen, whose base numbers are spectacular at 77-92-92-69-1110, but he is unsuccessful at racing undoubtedly to some fatal flaw somewhere in his stat line.
Ahh the hidden numbers we can't see ... Don't you just love them?
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