This is a race with steeped tradition in the PF universe. It has been won by such notables as Smart Money, A Bus, Malvern Hill, Jenny's My Gal, Camena's Thunder, Serengeti, Rogue Day, and Jake Sully.
The 2019 field is on the small side with just six entries, with only two that could be considered headliners; the Bally Doyle colt Olympia and Penfold's Bene There, who finished second in this race last year.
Rounding out the field is Lucky Light from Chiquita, Na'vi from Elite, Qi from Otsego, and Cold Steel's Shi No Numa.
After a cursory review, I would rule out Shi No Numa as a serious contender. Although he is the fastest horse in the race, he will not be completely comfortable at this distance. My feeling is that he would be better at 9F. This race at 10.5F will be a little out of his wheelhouse.
Next down is Lucky Light, who can make the distance, but is simply facing four other horses that are superior talent-wise.
Na'vi, who is a notoriously slow starter, will also finish out of the top three. He should finish 4th in this race, but will not hit the board as he is also outmatched by the top three.
I should note that Shi No Numa and Lucky Light are both 3yo's who will enjoy at least a 9 lb weight advantage over the older horses. I don't think this will be enough to get them on the board, but one or possibly both may find a way to squeak past Na'vi in the final placings.
So, that leaves Bene There, Olympia, and Qi as the three who I feel will hit the board.
Bene There is a consistent racer and had a solid positive experience in this race last year, finishing 2nd behind Jake Sully. This distance suits him well and he is well-rested.
Olympia is always a major threat although he is turning around very quickly for this race. It was just 13 days ago when he finished 3rd in the Australian Cup.
Qi is really the wild card in this race. He only has three career races, with a win his last time out at 10F in the Lexington Stakes. The distance is in his comfort zone and as a 3yo, he will also benefit from a weight advantage.
PREDICTION:
1st: Qi
2nd: Bene There
3rd: Olympia
The short rest will hamper Olympia. Bene There will take advantage of that to finish second. Qi, with ample rest, a weight advantage, and better speed than both of the others, will prevail.
2 comments:
I was surprised when I saw the race this morning and realized that Bally Doyle had pulled Olympia. A wise choice really, given the short amount of rest. That had the possibility of throwing off the feng shui of my prediction.
However, it looks like I was spot on in this case anyway. Qi, first as predicted, Bene There second as predicted, and everyone else just moved up one spot in Olympia's absence. Perfect.
Oh... I guess I should look at the official results before I comnment. Olympia was not pulled, it was a scratch. My mistake... but I think he is better served by the rest anyway.
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