Thoughts that have crossed my mind in the last 24 hours...

• Captain Britain is dangerously close to being shipped out.  He has not progressed much since winning his first race and our training staff thinks his potential may be limited.  He'll get one or two more starts to get himself sorted out.
• I really was quite pleased with the first run by 3yo Mocha Milkshake.  He doesn't mature until age 4-5 and I was a little leery throwing him out there.  He performed pretty well, finishing 4th with a 79 PSR.  Definitely encouraging.
• I recently had an inquiry about the purchase availability of War Machine or Union Jack.  This came from a well-respected stable that I would love to help out.  After thinking about it for a couple days I've come to the realization that I just could not part with either one of these stable icons.
• I think that Methy Bus may be the best 12F horse in the game right now and I think he'll prove it by winning the Caulfield Cup next weekend.  What makes this statement even more preposterous is that Methy Bus has never run at 12F.
• I think I made a mistake buying Spy Vs Spy from Endless Vista.  She was sired by Memcay, so I thought she might also be slow to mature, which would explain her lack of productivity.  Unfortunately, I discovered that she matured quickly, so what you see is what you get.

Broodmare shuffle?

An email discussion I had with another stable recently got me thinking about broodmares.

I've got nine at the moment with House of M waiting in the wings to fill the spot as number ten.  She may retire at the end of this year, but if she doesn't, I'll need to secure a lease on a mare; as my plan calls for 10 foals in the next breeding season.

In assessing my band of mares... I'm pretty satisfied.  For the most part, they are Classic or longer distance.  The exceptions being Nova, who can actually handle up to 9F but was more successful as a sprinter, and Domino, who has produced a couple of very nice foals.

I prefer long distance horses and have been trying to slowly accumulate mares of that nature.  False Demon, Shattered Record, Affirm Gal, In Spirit, Arctic Fox, Second Strike, and Ace Of Grace all fall into the distance category.

I am a little disappointed in False Demon.  She has a very nice AR and looks to be a perfect match with War Machine; in fact, I bought her specifically to pair with the Triple Crown champion.  Unfortunately, both of her two offspring sired by WM have been disappointments.  The 2yo colt Trebuchet will make his debut some time this year, but is extremely finicky on surfaces; so much so that we actually fear for his ability to make a start without scratching.  The 1yo filly Anck Su Namen also hates dirt and is a sprinter no less.

False Demon's most recent foal, newborn Blue Fairy, by Nightwing, looks much more like we expected.  She projects as a dirt-loving distance filly. 

Anyway, the point of this ramble is that I would consider some kind of mare swap for the next breeding season because I'd like to get some new blood into the stable.  I really haven't got anything particular in mind but if you are thinking along the same lines, drop me an email and maybe we can work something out.

Deep Magic heads Down Under

Deep Magic, 3yo colt bred and raced by Otsego Farms, has been sold to FDL Lodge.

His breeding created high expectations; which have not been met up to this point in his career.  Sired by War Machine out of the superb mare Isca's Revenge from Smokey's stable, the connections at Otsego Farms thought they had a match made in heaven.  "They (War Machine and Isca's Revenge) were both speedy, classic distance horses who loved dirt.  We felt this pairing had absolutely everything going for it", Otsego owner Jim Webber stated. 

However, Deep Magic has been slow to show off his talent.  Six races into his career, he sports a record of 6-0-2-1 with earnings of $72,500. 

With stall space a concern, Webber felt compelled to move Deep Magic in spite of the fact that 3yo filly Moondragon was sold to Formosa Farms just a few days ago.  "This gives us a little breathing room, stall-wise", Webber continued.

"Finlay has the golden touch.  Perhaps he and his people can get a little more out of Deep Magic.  We wish him the best", Webber said as he held up a glass of Dom Perignon.  "Cheers!"

Otsego Insider eclipses 20,000 page views

October 2011 will mark the 5th year of publishing for the Otsego Insider, and I just noticed that the view counter stands at 20,074.  Yay!

A couple years ago, as the counter approached 10,000, I stated that I would give a free War Machine breeding to the reader who emailed me a screen print proving that they were the 10,000th visitor.  Mike Noble of the now defunct Noble Farms was the winner.  (Miss ya Mike, you grouchy old bastard!)  I would have done the same thing at 20,000 if I had noticed sooner.

I appreciate those of you who come in and read. 

Domino solidifies her spot as Otsego broodmare

Otsego Farms breeds for distance.  

You can take one look at the stallions and figure that out.  Or, you can look at the broodmares and what you find will also lend weight to the above statement.  Unless of course, you look at Domino.

She was a sprinter/miler, sired by War Machine out of Sharp Cat.  She never had much success on the track and eventually was sold to Golden Acres.  A few short months later Otsego owner Jim Webber, having expressed regret at having sold her in the first place, repurchased her and shipped her back to Michigan.

"I'm not sure why I continue to reserve a spot for Domino.  My Head Trainer tells me she'll never produce a stayer", Webber mentioned in a recent interview from his on-site gymnasium.  "But I feel that she has some intrinsic ability that will manifest itself in quality foals."  

And he may be right.  Domino has borne two foals, both of whom are drawing compliments from the connections at Otsego Farms.  Fillies Brick House (2014) sired by Machete, and Tricky Woo (2015) sired by Yeager, are both projected as multi-surface sprinters with above-average speed.  

"I'm very satisfied with both of these fillies", Webber grunted as he finished his 50th push-up, concluding his 2-hour daily workout.  They may change my mind about breeding sprinters."

Make way for Refractor

BC Endurance Champ - Refractor

I've got three top distance stallions; Nightwing, War Machine, and Union Jack.

My carefully planned stable calls for three stallions.  That's all I can house, and frankly, that's all I need.  Refractor though, is making a strong case to be kept.  However, keeping him means that one of my other boys have to go.

But, how do you dump a stable icon like Nightwing?  How can you possibly send a Triple Crown winner like War Machine packing?  Can you sell off an up-an-coming stud like Union Jack?  The answers are: you don't, you can't, and absolutely not.  So, when another sensational racer with huge potential as a stud comes along, you just gotta make room!

Refractor has proven that he is one of the best 16F racers in the history of Photo-Finish.  You simply do not ship out a horse like that when his racing career is over.  Luckily, Refractor is a late maturing horse with a peak that is projected to last a couple years, so he will race this year and next for sure.  After that, he'll stay on and join up with the other fella's as another premier distance stud for Otsego Farms.

Bet the farm on this one folks.

If I were a participant in the Survival Pool this week, I'd pick Refractor in the 16F Diamond Stakes.

Granted, it is a tough field with headliners such as Druido Supremo and Pluto in attendance, but Refractor is fully mature and primed for a victory.

Fortnightly and Superb Thinking are both solid competitors, but have bit off a little more than they can chew in this race.  They are certainly qualified to compete in a GR2 race such as this, but with the scarcity of 16F races they will probably continue to bump heads with the top guns, which does not bode well for them.

At first glance, you wonder why Thunder Storm is in this field against such salty competition.  He has had a fairly undistinguished career up until this point until he sparkled with a 110 PSR at 16F a month ago at Shenandoah Downs.  The connections at Alba Chiara thought that was enough to take him out of the kiddies pool and throw him in the deep end with this race.  Unfortunately, he'll be intimidated and dominated, finishing no better than 5th.

Quake is an interesting filly.  She's never run at less than 16F and has put up some decent PSR's while doing so.  She faced similar competition in the Breeders Cup Endurance last year and actually forced the pace for most of the race before running out of gas in the final couple furlongs to finish a disappointing 8th.  More of the same in this race I suspect.

That leaves the big three, Druido Supremo, Pluto, and Refractor.

As good as Pluto is, Refractor has his number, beating him handily the last 2 times they've met at 16F by a combined 9 lengths.  Druido Supremo and Refractor have split the last two meetings, but with Refractor now fully grown and mature as a 4yo, he will be exceptionally tough to beat at this distance.  In fact the slowest time he has ever registered at 16F is 3:17.40.

GR2 Diamond Stakes 16F Turf

1. Refractor
2. Druido Supremo
3. Pluto
4. Quake

A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

Even though it's just the beginning of the 2015 season, I'm already starting to get the dreaded itch to dispose of a few horses.

My 2yo's last year were a very satisfying and at the same time unsatisfying bunch.  I got a few wins and a lot of placings even though none of them had more than four starts.  That seemed pretty dang good to me.  And yet, when I dig deeper into some of these horses, I'm not seeing the potential for breakouts as 3yo's.

Captain Britain won his first race and had us thinking he was the real deal.  Unfortunately, after a few more less-than-inspiring starts and a review of his HRF stats, it looks like he may have average talent at best. 

Moondragon also won her first start, then has disappointed ever since, showing mediocre speed and questionable stamina.

Deep Magic, Kit Fisto, and Xtra Run have all hit the board in at least half of their races, but have weaknesses that may severely limit their upside.

I will always have a place in my barn for horses that run in G3 or Stakes races.  After all, someone has to fill those race cards, right?  However, I've got my eye on a couple horses and I'll need some free stalls.  Therefore, I envision at least two of the above-mentioned horses getting moved in the next few weeks.  Sale or swap; I'm listening.

Let's get this party started!

With just two entries, my first week of racing was inconsequential.  I sent out a couple second stringers, so there was not a lot to get excited about.

This week however, I'm rolling out a couple established horses and several up-an-comers.  The fields are large though and the talent is deep, so it's hard to tell how things will go.

3yo filly Xtra Run will try her hand at 6F after a successful 5F race in November.  She put up a 86 PSR in that race finishing in second place.  Her extremely slow starts continue to be a concern and I would prefer to put her in a longer race to compensate, but she just doesn't have the stamina at this point.  Her AR states that she prefers distance, but with a stamina rating of 66, that doesn't hold water.

I'd like to think that 3yo colt Azrael, perhaps my best younger racer, will be on the path towards the Kentucky Derby.  The new qualification process could be problematic for me though because Azrael will have to qualify earnings-wise, and I don't always chase the largest purse, preferring to enter races that I have the best chance to win.  He'll be running in the 8.5F Holy Bull Stakes and a good showing will keep him on the road to the roses.

Stable stalwarts House of M and Crossbones will both run this weekend and should contend in their respective races.  House of M is running at a pet distance, so she should be a handful.  Crossbones is stretching out a bit to 10F.

3yo's Deep Magic and You Know My Name both run this week as well.  Deep Magic is coming off 2 consecutive second place finishes, but has been unimpressive.  He may be fighting for a stall if he cannot show significant improvement very soon.  YKMN has won 2 of her last 3 races and appears to have enough ability to contend in F&M races.

On a side note, we have acquired 4yo filly Spy Vs Spy (Memcay x Inside Information).  While browsing Endless Vista, she caught my eye.  I have not seen her AR yet, but I'm hoping she is a late bloomer like her sire.  I watched one of her previous races and noticed with amusement that her HRF stamina is rated as POOR.  However, with a raw stamina score of 70, I would conclude that the POOR rating may be inaccurate.  By way of comparison, War of the Lilies, who recently finished 2nd in the 10.5F Japan Cup Dirt, has a raw stamina score of 68.  In any event, with her light racing history and blue-blooded parentage, I figured she was worth a chance.