Young vs Old Horses

There was a time when the 2yo's were the apple of my eye.

No more. I have made a slow transition over the past several seasons. I vastly prefer older, established horses and have transformed my string in that direction.

With no guarantee of success, and a long wait while they mature, 2yo's have become much less attractive to me. Breeding or buying a foal, then waiting months or longer to race only to find that you have a non-competitive horse has become an increasingly bitter pill for me to swallow.

Concentrating on older horses is safer. You know exactly what you are getting when you purchase an older horse. There is a track record. You can watch his races and observe his tendencies over time. Plus, the fields are smaller.

This season, I have picked up Big Easy 5yo male, King of the Sea 4yo male, Sitio Estratigico 4yo male, and Candle of Life 3yo male. Their combined record for me this year is 8-1-2-3. Not earth shattering, but I'll take a 75% on-the-board percent anytime.

I know exactly what these horses are capable of. I know what race grade and distance gives me the best shot to earn purses. This is valuable information that may takes many fruitless races to discern with a fresh 2yo.

Obviously, it's not easy to purchase a older superstar. Nobody wants to give them up. But solid older horses with definite earnings potential are available.

I'll continue to breed foals strictly for my own needs. After all, fresh blood is always necessary for the continuance of the stable. But my direction, now and in the future, will be primarily towards older horses.

Race Results for Weeks 21-22

In the Standish Handicap, Doomsday went off at 8/1 and trailed only early leader Attack At Dawn for the first 4 furlongs. As Attack At Dawn faded under the race-high 125 lbs, With Imagine from Establos Del Castillo and Belfast Cat from Hutton's Horse Haven rushed into the Win and Place positions. Doomsday was able to hold on for the Place. It was his 5th consecutive in-the-money finish.

Doomsday has a season record of 5-1-3-1. He has performed very well this year after a poor 2008. There was serious consideration given to his retirement or sale at the end of last year. We are very pleased that he has confirmed our decision to race him for one more year.

Big Slick came back from an injury and was immediately faced with a 20 horse field in an allowance . We were happy to get an opportunity to stretch him out a bit in this 9 furlong affair. Big Slick was able to navigate through traffic and was leading at the 6 and 8 furlong posts. With a furlong to go he began to lose ground to Spartan's Ghostseeker, who then cruised in for the victory. Sweet Tombi from Parklands also slipped ahead to finish second.

So, in his return from injury, Big Slick finished 3rd in a field of 20. We are happy with that result. He'll get 5-6 weeks off before this next race.

For the week, 2-0-0-2. No wins, but both on-the-board. Next week some of our stable stars will hit the track.

Just two racers to compete...

Another quiet weekend in store for our stable. Trying to adequately rest our horses has left us with very few races the past couple weeks.

We had just one racer last weekend and we'll have two this weekend.

Big Slick makes his first race back from injury. He'll be running in an 8.5 furlong Allowance. Unfortunately, it looks like there will be 20 entries. He has faced fields of 20 and 19 in his two previous races. He looks sharp and ready to go. We like his chances at this distance.

Doomsday will also be running this weekend. He is entered in the 6 furlong Standish Handicap. Once again, the competition is much tougher than I would have expected in a Grade 3 race. I specifically moved Doomsday down in Grade this season so that he could compete favorably after an 11-0-2-2 season last year. However, he still seems to be running into top sprinters on a weekly basis. I am hoping that he can hit the board, although with the way he has been running lately, a win is not out of the question.

OPINION - Telling it like it is

There has been recent debate in the forum regarding critical comments made in some pre-race articles written by our resident statistician, DJ.

It looks like the majority of stable owners have no problem with the authors candid comments. However there was a faction that voiced lengthy opposition to the very idea of negative comments.

Regardless of which side of that fence you're on, I think it is important that our "media" be allowed, and even encouraged, to express their opinions, both positive and negative. These opinions and thoughts breath life into Photo-Finish and generate conversation and debate.

Obviously, it is important that owners not take comments personally. DJ does not have an axe to grind with anyone. He just expreses opinions based on what he observes on the track. I have known DJ for a few years via the Photo-Finish medium, and I have noticed that he is an absurdly fair and reasonable individual.

Also remember that DJ's comments are not about the overall value of the horse, they are about the horse's chances and viability in a particular race.

I have been on the receiving end of criticism a few times regarding horse placement and I must admit, I didn't take it all that well either. I defended my position the best I could, but I never suggested that Joe the Trackman alter his excellent commentaries just to spare my feelings.

So, if you disagree with an assessment or prediction, go on the record and explain why you feel differently. But let's try not to discourage our media from "telling it like it is".

Night Thrasher shipped to Olmo Dorato

The 2yo colt Night Thrasher (Nightwing x Different) was sold to the Italian stable Olmo Dorato in a quick, buy-now transaction today.

This colt is good on all surfaces and has some ability. His propensity to break slowly seems to be the achilles heel that Ettore and his trainers will have to work on.

It was very tough decision to let him go, being the first offspring of our stable flagship, Nightwing. We do wish both Night Thrasher and Olmo Dorato the best of luck. Grazie Ettore.

Words have meaning and names have power. ~Author Unknown

Many of you know that I name my horses after Marvel and DC Superheroes. For those of you who are unfamiliar with these characters, here is a glimpse at some of my stables namesakes.

NIGHTWING

When Batman's sidekick Robin grew up, he became a solo crimefighter himself named Nightwing. While being strictly on the side of law and order, Nightwing was a bit disillusioned with Batman's strict code of ethics, preferring to do whatever was necessary to bring criminals to justice, even if it means bending the rules a bit.

UNION JACK

With strength and fighting skill greatly enhanced by the Pendragon, an ancient English mystic force which also gave it's strength to the fabled King Arthur, Union Jack protects the people of the British Isles.

WAR MACHINE

Jim Rhodes, the man inside the armored battlesuit, was initially an employee of Tony Stark, otherwise known as Iron Man. In defiance of his employer, Rhodes donned the suit to demonstrate it's peacekeeping abilities. He was very skilled in it's use and was recruited by S.H.I.E.L.D. to lead a strike force to combat terrorism.

Race Results for weeks 19-20

It was an extremely uneventful week at Otsego Farms. With injuries and horses in need of rest, there was only one entry, Night Thrasher, the 2yo son of Nightwing.

He was entered in the 5.5 furlong NJ Way Stakes. We have been trying, unsuccessfully so far, to find the right combination of surface and distance for Night Thrasher. This was his first try on grass.

The field was 15 and NT slipped quickly to the rear, as has been his habit. At 4 furlongs, he had moved up to 10th and was showing some speed, but rather than pushing on, he began to fade in the last furlong and finished 11th.

He has a record of 3-0-0-0.

By Special Request....

Bally Doyle 55 race PSR breakdown:

PSR	RACES	PERCENT
Above 120	0	0%
110-119	3	5%
100-109	1	2%
90-99	10	18%
80-89	10	18%
70-79	8	15%
60-69	3	5%
50-59	10	18%
40-49	7	13%
30-39	0	0%
20-29	0	0%
10-19	2	4%
Below 0	1	2%

PSR Update

We have continued to put up above-average PSR numbers and yet not get the Win. For example, in the Prix Ganay, Union Jack scored a PSR of 121 but had to settle for 2nd place behind Bonai's Lazy Loper.

A current breakdown of all 32 races:

PSR	RACES	PERCENT
120-129	1	3%
110-119	2	6%
100-109	9	28%
90-99	8	25%
80-89	4	13%
70-79	1	3%
60-69	3	9%
50-59	1	3%
40-49	3	9%

Currently, 37.5% of our starts are resulting in a 100+ PSR. That is almost double the year-to-date average occurrence rate of 19.1%. We are also striking 90+ PSR in 62.5% of our starts thus far.

With these gaudy PSR numbers, we are a bit disappointed in only having 4 Wins at this point. However, we also have 11 Places. That means that we have finished 1st or 2nd in 15 of 32 starts; 47% of the time.

Hopefully, the good speed results will continue and start translating into more wins.

OFRS purchases Ecuadorian stayer

We've been in the market for a racer who can handle up to 16 furlongs and we think we found one in Sitio Estrategico, the 4yo male bred by Establos del Castillo and previously owned by Rivendell Stable.

SE currently has a record of 19-1-3-3 with earnings of $370,500. He has had 4 races this year and his lowest PSR has been 81. His other scores were 102, 91, and 83. We will run him primarily on turf at distances of 12-16 furlongs.

We don't anticipate that Strategic Site will transform into a big winner, but he fills a niche for us racewise, and we think he will be competitive and pay his way.

Race Results for Weeks 17-18

Six races this weekend. No wins. That has become commonplace in the past few weeks.

Our 2yo by Dayjur out of Exotic Wood, Mister Fantastic made his debut in the 5 furlong Cooper Stakes. MF is very obviously not ready to race. In fact, I'm quite sure he will not see the track again this season. He finished last in a field of seven. Unmistakable from Borders Racing was the winner in a photo-finish.

Candle of Life hoped to rebound from a disappointing race his last time out. He ran a good race and had to deal with a bit of traffic, but finished a solid 3rd in the mile long Derby Trial. Indivisible from Olmo Dorato, and Equaline from KRF Stables finished in a dead heat. The stewards awarded the win to Indivisible after a lengthy examination.

Union Jack is still looking for his first victory of the season after finishing 2nd in the Prix Ganay. This time he ran into the incredible 5yo from Bonai, Lazy Loper. Union Jack has a season record of 4-0-3-1. He is starting to remind me quite a bit of Nightwing, another talented Otsego router who was much better than the rank and file, but not quite good enough to take on the top echelon horses.

We are very concerned about our speedy dirt sprinter, Nova. Her 6th place finish in the Carter Handicap makes two consecutive sub-par performances. That has not happened since early in her 2yo season. Mr Purler from Akuma no Heya showed a strong finishing kick to get the win. Nova has looked a bit weary, so we have decided that a 6-8 week layoff may be in order.

Big Easy finished 3rd in the Churchill Downs Handicap. He continues to be a force to be reckoned with this season as a 5yo. Yes Zippy Can from Zippy Chippy Stables edged Snowbank's Lil Belle for the win.

Kid Flash snapped his streak of 9 consecutive on-the-board finishes with a 6th place showing in the Will Rogers Handicap. He was actually running very well, even burdened with a race-high 126lbs, when he got stuck behind the struggling El Pais from Yeguada Lore Toki. There was an obvious lane on the rail, that our jockey failed to see, resulting in a devastating loss of momentum behind the fading horse. We are reviewing the race to determine if disciplinary action will be taken against the jockey. We feel it was a gross error of judgement. Cayotic from Bowen Lodge was the winner.

For the week, our record was 6-0-1-2.

Way off topic....

My legs are killing me.

I got back into running about 2 years ago. My oldest son, who is a hard core runner, convinced me to get started running again as a way to lose a little weight. I wasn't all that heavy at the time, maybe 185 lbs which is not too bad at 6 feet tall. But I felt that I could stand to lose a few pounds, so I decided to give it a try.

It was pretty tough at first, but I've been able to get my long runs runs up to 13 miles so far.

My son told me that I could improve my 5k race times by changing my running style. Evidently, I am a classic heel-toe runner. In other words, I land on my heel with each stride, then roll the foot and push off with the toes.

This is bad for 3 reasons:

1. Your foot stays on the ground a long time which causes friction and slows you down.


2. Landing on your heel with your leg in front of your body mass causes a braking effect with every stride.


3. Landing on your heel is a jolt to your body, causing joint and ankle issues.

So, I decided to change my running style to the Pose Technique. It really is a superior way to run. It is much easier on the body and more economical effort-wise. But, it requires a departure from the heel-toe method. You have to land on the ball of your feet, in other words, pretty much on your toes. "Beware", they cautioned, "you may have some soreness in your calves during the first couple weeks".

I basically can't walk. My calves are like a pair of cannonballs.

Anyway, I thought I'd pass on the info on Pose Running for anyone who runs and wants to look at this system. Now, where is that Bengay?

Otsego PSR analysis

Our Power Speed Ratings have been very solid so far this season.

According to DJ from Under The Weeping Moon, affectionately known as The Statman, instances of 100+ PSR's occur in approximately 18-20% of all races.

We have data on 24 of our 26 races thus far and here is the breakdown on PSR's:

PSR	RACES	PERCENT
110-119	2	8%
100-109	6	25%
90-99	8	33%
80-89	2	8%
70-79	1	4%
60-69	1	4%
50-59	1	4%
40-49	3	13%

So far, 33% (8/24) of our races have had PSR's over 100. Well above the 20% expectation.

Incredibly, 67% (16/24) have been over 90. In fact, many of those 90+ scores were right on the cusp of 100. Specifically, six of the eights 90+ scores were 96 or higher. That means that 14 of 24 races (58%) have had a PSR of 96 or higher.

Race Results for Weeks 15-16

We had just two entries this week, Doomsday in the 6.5 furlong San Simeon Handicap, and Lady Katherine in a 6 furlong Allowance.

I've been trying to be very judicious on Doomsday's entries, looking to maximize his chances. The stated goal at the beginning of the season was to enter him in ability appropriate races, probably concentrating on lower grades. I thought the Grade 3 San Simeon with just a $100,000 purse might offer a good chance at a win.

Unfortunately, a top tier sprinter, Miss Bust of Firstholme Racing was also entered. Doomsday had a massive victory over the speedy Jewel Mint of DVO earlier in the season, but the upset was not in the cards this time around as Miss Bust won handily. Doomsday did cruise home for an easy 2nd place however, almost 14 lengths ahead of Unknown Direction from Watch This Space. Doomsday has a 2009 season record of 4-1-3-0. A tremendous improvement so far over last year where he finished at 11-0-2-2, attributable to better race selection no doubt.

Lady Katherine came back from her injury in spectacular fashion, winning a 6 furlong Allowance race. Her record for the season stands at 2-1-0-0.

She ran a very economical race and had plenty of steam at the finish to hold off Moonlapse Vertigo from Under the Weeping Moon for the victory. She was a bit of a longshot at 12/1 odds, but we felt that she had a good chance and picked her for the victory in the PW contest. Bally Doyle, History's Own, and Zippy Chippy all picked Lady Katherine as well.

That puts our stable record at 26-4-10-4 for the season, giving us a sparkling 69% on-the-board ratio. Our win percentage is a bit off projection but we still feel that we can get 20+ victories this year in approximately 105 races.

Wherefore art thou Derby Hopeful?

The American Triple Crown, comprised of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness , and Belmont, is one of the most prestigious trio of races on the Photo-Finish racing calendar. Most stables, whether US based or not, aspire to have a horse worthy of these contests.

Unfortunately, Otsego Farms Racing & Stud will have to pass this year.

In my 6 racing seasons, I've actually had just 2 horses that were truly worthy of participating in the American Triple Crown. Nightwing, and the only horse to have won the ATC so far, the immortal War Machine.

In 2003, my first season in operation, Nightwing burst on to the scene. After winning the UAE Derby, it became apparent that he had ability to compete for the ATC. He ran in all three races but his best showing was a 4th in the Belmont. Those races were stuffed with Photo-Finish legends and even though Nightwing had tremendous ability, he was a bit overmatched.

In 2006, War Machine made history by winning all three races in relatively easy fashion. He was the prohibitive favorite going in, and did not disappoint. That Triple Crown, plus big wins at the Dubai World Cup and the Breeders Cup Classic propelled him to Horse of the Year honors.

Besides for those two fellows, ATC pickings have been fairly slim for me. There have been a couple others that I halfheartedly entered in the Derby to try to gauge their Triple Crown possibilities, but neither entry turned out well.

Doomsday tried his hand at the Derby in 2007. He is adept at both dirt and turf and at the time, I thought he had the lungs for 10+ furlongs. At least that is what his AR and HRF ratings indicated. He led for the first 4 furlongs then slowly faded, finishing 10th in a field of 12. Since then he has shown a preference for turf, and shorter races.

Then, in 2008, Union Jack made an attempt at the Kentucky Derby. He definitely had the endurance for 10-12 furlong races, but I knew going in that he wasn't that fond of dirt. He finished 7th out of 19 entries and has not raced on dirt again.

Based on their poor showings in Kentucky, neither Doomsday nor Union Jack went any further on the Derby trail.

For the 2009 Derby, I have just three choices.

1. Lady Katherine - Sprinting filly. Not a good option.
2. Kid Flash - Turf miler. Not a good option.
3. Candle of Life - Loves dirt and mud. May have necessary stamina.

Candle of Life is my best, nay, my only option. But realistically, his chances are slim to none. I purchased him recently because I was intrigued by his showings in his two previous races. However, his first race for Otsego was an unmitigated disaster as he finished 8th in the Gallery Furniture.com Stakes.

So, it looks like I'll be sitting this American Triple Crown season out. Best of luck to all who participate and I'll see you there next year.

Race Results for Weeks 13-14

We had a season high of seven racers this weekend. We had hoped for an eighth, but Lady Katherine scratched due to a heavy track.

We entered the weekend very optimistic, but the results were disappointing.

Big Slick made the 20 horse field in the Dubai Juvenile, and based on his strong previous performance, we felt he had a good chance to hit the board. Unfortunately, he did not break well, and found himself in very bad traffic early on. Boxed in and trapped behind a badly fading filly, bro'Town from Chiknsmack, Big Slick was pushed all the way back to 14th place. To make matters worse, he also sustained an injury. Northern K D from Godolphin17 took home the $600,000 winners check.

Kid Flash ran at 8 furlongs for the first time and fared better finishing second in the Carbine Club Stakes. It was the 9th consecutive on-the-board finish for Kid Flash. The Lakeside Acres colt Maximize was the winner by 2 lengths.

Nova ran completely out of character finishing well out of contention in the Dubai Golden Shaheen. With no turns to contend with and her aggressive, front-running style, we felt she had an excellent chance to win this race outright. It was her first bad race in over a year, finishing 6th in a field of 13. Diabla from Snowbank Farm was the easy winner in world record time.

We may have aimed a little high in his first race at Otsego, but we felt that Candle of Life was up to the challenge of the $750,000 Gallery Furniture.com Stakes. He finished 1st and 2nd in his last two races, showing early speed and excellent stamina. However, like Nova he ran contrary to orders. Candle of Life quickly slipped to the rear and stayed there the entire race, finishing 8th. FDL's Bold N' Honorable, the 2/1 favorite, was the winner.

Coming back from injury, King of the Sea ran a nice race and finished 2nd in the Westchester Handicap. She's A Prize, the 4yo mare from Bonai Farms was the winner. Incredibly, it was discovered after the race that King of the Sea was injured again, this time for 29 days. This is a very talented horse, who can't seem to shake the injury bug this year.

Big Easy ran into some very tough competition in the Emirates Stakes. It was just a 5 horse field, but it included a pair of outstanding mares, Foxies Scenic Sheba, and Fly So High from Signature Racing Stables. The girls finished 1-2 with a stirring stretch run that was won by Scenic Sheba. Big Easy finished decidedly 3rd.

Night Thrasher finished 10th out of 17 in a 7.5 furlong Allowance. The distance looked a little long for him. We'll try him at 6 furlongs next time out. Sweet Tombi from Parklands won by almost 3 lengths.

For the week we were 7-0-2-1. Not good enough.

Otsego Farms to cease all operations

Citing personal reasons, owner Jim Webber has decided to permanently close the doors on Otsego Farms.

"We have been successful in our 6 seasons of racing, but other obligations force us to make this difficult decision."

Immediately, a stable full of quality horses will be shipped to Endless Vista for distribution.

As he left the press conference, Mr Webber's last comment was, "April Fools!".