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Thursday, April 05, 2007

Wherefore art thou Derby Hopeful?


The American Triple Crown, comprised of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness , and Belmont, is one of the most prestigious trio of races on the Photo-Finish racing calendar. Most stables, whether US based or not, aspire to have a horse worthy of these contests.

Unfortunately, Otsego Farms Racing & Stud will have to pass this year.

In my 6 racing seasons, I've actually had just 2 horses that were truly worthy of participating in the American Triple Crown. Nightwing, and the only horse to have won the ATC so far, the immortal War Machine.

In 2003, my first season in operation, Nightwing burst on to the scene. After winning the UAE Derby, it became apparent that he had ability to compete for the ATC. He ran in all three races but his best showing was a 4th in the Belmont. Those races were stuffed with Photo-Finish legends and even though Nightwing had tremendous ability, he was a bit overmatched.

In 2006, War Machine made history by winning all three races in relatively easy fashion. He was the prohibitive favorite going in, and did not disappoint. That Triple Crown, plus big wins at the Dubai World Cup and the Breeders Cup Classic propelled him to Horse of the Year honors.

Besides for those two fellows, ATC pickings have been fairly slim for me. There have been a couple others that I halfheartedly entered in the Derby to try to gauge their Triple Crown possibilities, but neither entry turned out well.

Doomsday tried his hand at the Derby in 2007. He is adept at both dirt and turf and at the time, I thought he had the lungs for 10+ furlongs. At least that is what his AR and HRF ratings indicated. He led for the first 4 furlongs then slowly faded, finishing 10th in a field of 12. Since then he has shown a preference for turf, and shorter races.

Then, in 2008, Union Jack made an attempt at the Kentucky Derby. He definitely had the endurance for 10-12 furlong races, but I knew going in that he wasn't that fond of dirt. He finished 7th out of 19 entries and has not raced on dirt again.

Based on their poor showings in Kentucky, neither Doomsday nor Union Jack went any further on the Derby trail.

For the 2009 Derby, I have just three choices.
  1. Lady Katherine - Sprinting filly. Not a good option.
  2. Kid Flash - Turf miler. Not a good option.
  3. Candle of Life - Loves dirt and mud. May have necessary stamina.

Candle of Life is my best, nay, my only option. But realistically, his chances are slim to none. I purchased him recently because I was intrigued by his showings in his two previous races. However, his first race for Otsego was an unmitigated disaster as he finished 8th in the Gallery Furniture.com Stakes.

So, it looks like I'll be sitting this American Triple Crown season out. Best of luck to all who participate and I'll see you there next year.

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