PSR Update

Stowaway recorded an amazing 120 PSR and Kid Flash posted a 113 in last weeks action. Union Jack had a rather disappointing run at 92. Big Slick checked in at 90, and Sitio Estrategico had a 75 in a long 2 mile race in which he labored in the final furlong.

Overall, 64% of our starts have resulted in PSR's of 90 or higher, and 38% have exceeded 100. Stats through 50 races are given below.

PSR	RACES	PERCENT
120+	2	4%
110-119	5	10%
100-109	12	24%
90-99	13	26%
80-89	6	12%
70-79	4	8%
60-69	3	6%
50-59	2	4%
40-49	3	6%
30-39	0	0%
20-29	0	0%
10-19	0	0%
Below 0	0	0%

Turnover higher for OFRS in 2009

Perhaps it's the new sale system. Maybe my transactions are up this year because it's just so darn easy to buy and sell a horse.

We're just past the halfway mark this year and I've already bought 3 horses and sold 3 horses.

That is pretty unusual for me. In the past, the majority of my transactions have taken place in the off-season.

With the new sales system though, you can transform your stable in a surprisingly short period of time.

The three horses I picked up:

1. Sitio Estrategico - 4yo male stayer. Very solid PSR's. Grade 3 at 10-16 furlongs.
2. Candle of Life - 3yo male miler. Has the tools. Grade 3 at 8-10 furlongs.
3. Stowaway - 3yo male sprinter. Has 100+ PSR ability. Grade 2-3 at 5-7 furlongs.

The three horses I sold:

1. Night Thrasher - 2yo colt. Has a couple flaws. I didn't see a ton of upside.
2. Firefighter - 3yo colt. Pretty AR. Looks like he may have some potential.
3. Dragon Flyer - 2yo filly. Sold her unraced, which is risky. A few holes in her AR.

The horses I bought are not grizzled veterans by any means, but I did gain maturity by making these moves and got myself three solid racers who will win money if appropriately placed.

I'm probably done with transactions this season because I really like the structure of my stable right now. However, if I decide to retire Nova at the end of the year (50/50 bet right now), I would have to move a broodmare later in the season. I'm only keeping three, and they would be Nova, Shattered Record, and probably Monsoon.

Race Results for Weeks 29-30

The one race that I thought was a sure thing turned out to be the only race that was a failure this week.

The 6/4 favorite in the Sunset Handicap, Union Jack did not hit the board, finishing 5th in a field of nine. Brilliant, the 5yo male from Under The Weeping Moon was the winner in record time. Union Jack carried a race-high 125 lbs. which may have contributed to his lackluster performance.

Kid Flash won his second consecutive race by taking the 7 furlong Hobartville Stakes. He grabbed the lead early in the race and never relinquished it. The Kid is maturing into a very reliable racer and is probably slated for a step up into some Grade One races in the future.

Big Slick faced off against his half-brother Elegant Tower from Goforwand Stables in the Illawarra Mercury 2yo Classic. He lead the race until the final furlong, when Elegant Tower took control of the race and finished first. Big Slick finished second in his first try on grass. He now has a career record of 4-0-2-1.

We decided to try 16 furlongs on for size with Sitio Estrategico in an Allowance race. He slipped to the rear, then slowly moved up through the field to finish 3rd. He was never in the hunt for the lead, finishing 26 lengths behind the winner, True Ensign from Eureka Racing Stables. Based on his performance and his condition at race end, we suspect that 12 furlongs will be the norm for Sitio in the future.

A 5.5 furlong Maiden race was Stowaway's first contest with Otsego Farms. He went right to the lead, as planned, and easily held on to win. He's got speed and we expect him to try something in a Grade 2-3 next time out, perhaps in the 6-7 furlong range.

For the week, a record of 5-2-1-1.

Tough race choices...

Union Jack is a great horse. He's just not a superstar.

It pains me to withhold him from races like this weekends Diamond Stakes with it's $1.35M purse. But I've come to the conclusion that as good as UJ is, he's just not quite at that pinnacle of talent necessary to compete with horses like A Bus, Lazy Loper, and Perfect Bell.

And, since our current entry and travel rules allow horses to globe-hop to an unrealistic degree, there is no possibility of avoiding those superstars at every big-purse race. So, horses like Union Jack will have forgo the really lucrative races and must be satisfied occupying the second rung of the ladder.

That is my rationale for entering UJ in the Gr2 12 furlong Sunset Handicap. He's up against a good field, but he has a much better shot at a victory, or even hitting the board, in this race.

Another entry that made me pause was Big Slick in the Illawara Mercury 2yo Classic on turf.

BS is definitely superior in dirt, but after facing fields of 20, 19, and 20 in his first three races, I decided that a change of surface might be advisable. He is at least adequate on turf, so hopefully that won't hinder him. The idea is to try to avoid another massive field. That strategy appears to have paid off as there are currently 9 horses scheduled to participate.

Interestingly, Big Slick will face off against his half-brother, Elegant Tower from Gorforwand in this race. Currently, both horses sport identical records of 3-0-1-1.

Kid Flash, Sitio Estrategico, and newcomer Stowaway are also scheduled to run this weekend.

By the way, see anything familiar about that picture of Union Jack?

It is the profile used in the Otsego Farms logo.

OFRS acquires 3yo colt

Stowaway, the white 3yo colt from History's Own Stable has become the newest member of the Otsego racing team.

By Swaleaway out of Show And Tell, Stowaway has a career record of 4-0-1-1. He has shown some speed with PSR's of 107, 84, 42, and 102 in his four races.

We are very happy to get this fellow. The bidding was going back and forth between us and Olmo Dorato. I meant to check the status before the 12pm deadline today, but got tied up on other business and did not get back to the sales page until 12:30pm. I was relieved to see that Ettore did not up the ante any further and we were able to acquire Stowaway for $310,000.

Once we've had a chance to study his AR and watch his previous races, we'll determine exactly what niche he'll fill in our race strategy.

Race Results for Weeks 27-28

Yet another quiet week for us here at Otsego Farms. We are trying to concentrate on adequate rest for our horses so we had just two racers this week, after having just one last week.

Doomsday was entered in the Gr2 Expressway Stakes. The grade was a little above our plans for him, but we thought the modest purse of $125,000 would discourage top competition. Doomsday was a bit sluggish and did not go to the lead as is his habit.

He settled into third place and stayed there the entire race for the show finish. Handsome Problem and Handsome Politics, a pair of 3yo colts from Hopeful Farm finished the race 1-2.

Doomsday has a season record of 6-1-3-2.

Big Easy ran in the Gr2 Blamey Stakes. He ran his normal race, staying in mid-pack, then trying to take the lead in the final furlong. Snowbank's Lil Belle had different ideas though as she easily put off the challenge to finish first. Big Easy came in second and now has a season record of 6-2-1-2.

For the season, Otsego Farms stands at 45-9-12-9. I was aiming for around 105 races this year but am currently a little behind projection. Injuries have probably cost me 5 races thus far, and Mister Fantastic has been shelved for the season after showing that he is too immature to run this year. Those factors, along with our commitment to adequate rest will probably leave us in the 90-95 range for 2009.

Is it easier to win money on Turf?

In the Forum today, I mentioned that there seems to be many more turf races than there are dirt races. I've noticed this tendancy quite often in the past.

As I said, over the four week period of weeks 27-30, there are 56 turf races and only 27 on dirt. This is not just an aberration, this turf/dirt ratio has strongly favored turf surfaces for the past several seasons.

My hypothesis was, it must be harder for dirt horses to win purses because they are operating in larger fields. It makes sense. Fewer races, hence larger fields.

I checked all 43 races that we have run at Otsego Farms in 2009. Here is what I found:

TURF RACES - 21
AVG FIELD SIZE - 8.43

DIRT RACES - 22
AVG FIELD SIZE - 11.37

Because almost half of my string prefers dirt, I have actually run more dirt races in spite of their relative scarcity. Not surprisingly, the dirt fields are substantially larger, just as I suspected they would be.

Of those 43 races, I have collected a check on 29 occasions. The breakdown is as follows:

TOTAL RACES - 43
EARNED PURSE ON TURF - 17
EARNED PURSE ON DIRT - 12

So, I have earned a purse in a turf race 81% of the time. I have earned a purse in a dirt race 55% of the time.

Seems like I am right on target with my thinking. Because of the plethora of turf races, the fields are smaller and the purses are easier to come by.

There are obviously many other possible explanations for the way my numbers look. It's possible that another stable may have substantially different results with their horses. But the idea seems logical to me so I'm going to assume that this phenomenon is accurate.

Superstar horses are going to win their money regardless of whether they shine on turf or dirt. But if you have a middle-of-the-road talent....it's better if he's a turfer.

War Machine booked solid

The 2006 Horse of the Year and American Triple Crown Winner, War Machine, is fully booked for both the 2009 and 2010 breeding seasons.

Limited to just 5 pairings per year, reservations were limited to one per stable per season on a first come first served basis. The 5th and final spot for 2010 was filled today.

We are excited that his first crop of youngsters will hit the track next season. Included in that group is our chestnut filly out of Dragon Flyer, Rogue.

Rogue will run at classic distances and also likes dirt and turf, making her a touch more versatile that War Machine, who vastly preferred dirt. Being out of Dragon Flyer makes Rogue a half-sister to another Otsego stalwart, Union Jack.

Comic Book Names - continued

My homebreds and unnamed acquired horses are given names of Marvel and DC Superheroes and Supervillians. Here is the character who inspired another Otsego racer.

DOOMSDAY

This mindless alien engine of destruction manhandled the entire roster of DC Superheroes then went toe-to-toe with The Man of Steel and left him dying in the arms of Lois Lane.

The famous Death of Superman storyline revolved around the character Doomsday. Of course, the powers of our yellow sun eventually resurrected Superman.

Injury bug strikes FDL, Olmo Dorato

While reviewing the results from the races this weekend, I could not help but notice the rash of injuries that struck my friends Finlay from FDL Lodge and Ettore from Olmo Dorato.

As I scanned the results, I noticed an injury in the first race to the 3yo colt Easy Cee, Ettore's new acquisition. On the very same PF race day, June 14th, in the 2 mile Queen's Vase, Ettore also had another 3yo colt, Gorad Gomel, suffer an injury.

Incredibly, just 3 days later on June 17th, Smartly Dubai also went down to injury. These were not minor injuries either, as you can see below:

• Easy Cee - 18 days
• Gorad Gomel - 24 days
• Smartly Dubai - 36 days

I scrolled down through the results more carefully, fearful that I would find yet another injury for Olmo Dorato,

Instead, I discovered that Finlay, not to be outdone, had incurred no less than 4 injuries this week. To make matters worse, three of the four were lengthy, as you can see:

• Princely Status - 23 days
• Zephyrbab - 7 days
• Double Dome - 29 days
• Excellent Son - 31 days

For the week there were a total of 13 injuries, 7 of which were suffered by either Olmo Dorato or FDL. Very bad luck gentleman.

Race Results for Weeks 25-26

Candle of Life was the sole racer for Otsego Farms this weekend. He ran in a field of eight in the 8.5 furlong Affirmed Handicap.

Candle was in PP1 and went off at 8/1 odds. He did not contend for the lead at any time in this race. He made a slight push in the final furlong and I thought for a second that he might hit the board, but it was not to be. A fade in the final 16th put him back in 5th place at the finish.

Fantasy Flight from Under the Weeping Moon was the winner with UAE Derby winner Always Charming of Bally Doyle finishing second.

Candle of Life has not performed particularly well since his acquisition, but we are still very high on this colt. He should be fully mature soon and his AR says he will maintain peak performance for his entire career, encompassing several racing seasons. I don't envision him ever being Gr1 material, but I'm sure he will be successful with prudent placement.

PSR Update

Our Power Speed Numbers continue to thrive in 2009. Nova and King of the Sea both checked in at 113 this week and Kid Flash recorded a 109 to give our stable three more 100+ PSR's. Thus far, 38% of our races have been at 100 PSR or higher. At 90 PSR or higher, we are at 62%.

We are extremely proud and also thankful that our team has produced such fine numbers so far. The up-to-date chart, through 42 races is given below:

PSR	RACES	PERCENT
120+	1	2%
110-119	4	10%
100-109	11	26%
90-99	10	24%
80-89	6	14%
70-79	2	5%
60-69	3	7%
50-59	2	5%
40-49	3	7%
30-39	0	0%
20-29	0	0%
10-19	0	0%
Below 0	0	0%

Big purse wins have continued to elude us so far this season. The primary reason has been a tendancy to shoot at slightly lower graded races this season. That may change somewhat down the stretch if our veterans continue to perform so well.

We're in the market....

I'd like to acquire a veteran male or mare with a good reputation.

Perhaps you've got a horse that you think may be on the decline and you'd like to clear a stall now? Maybe it's a 3yo or 4yo who hasn't fully matured yet and you're tired of waiting?

Either way, I may be in the market if you've got an appropriate horse that captures my interest. Please don't be offended if we differ in our interpretation of what constitutes a good rep. I bought Big Easy and King of the Sea, and tried to buy Landscaper because I thought they fit that description.

In addition to cash, I have one breeding remaining to War Machine in 2010 that I will hold, which can be part of the deal if that is desirable.

If you have a possibility, please contact me via email at mvpcandidate@charter.net and we'll discuss.

Race Results for Weeks 23-24

We've been hoping that our better-than-average PSR's would start translating into more wins.

That finally came to pass this week as Otsego racers took home 5 victories, the most ever in one week since our inception.

Newcomer Sitio Estrategico looked a bit flat in the King Edward BC Handicap. In spite of having the least weight, he was never a factor in this race, finishing 6th. The winner was Olmo Dorato's, By Surprise.

Lady Katherine broke very well and had the early lead in the Azalea Breeders Cup Stakes but faded in the final furlong to finish 4th. Three Gold Pieces, the fine filly from London's Bally Doyle was the easy winner.

King of the Sea was up against very tough competition in the Brooklyn Handicap. Princess Royale, Definite Gem, Beamington, Lager Beer, and Bombed Out were just some of the top horses in this race. King took a very economical route and had just enough gas at the end to win this race by a nose over a game Princess Royale from Chiknsmack. A longshot at 13/1 odds this race, King of the Sea has battled injuries this year so we were extremely gratified to see him get this win.

Who said Big Easy was nearing the end of the line? This spectacular miler won the Just A Game BC Handicap over Moose Hollow's 5yo mare Triumphant. Big Easy now sports a career record of 40-15-15-6 making him one of the top milers in Photo-Finish history.

It was a photo-finish, but we'll take it. Union Jack collected his first win of the season in the 10 furlong Manhattan Handicap. Brilliant from Under the Weeping Moon, and Union Jack ran shoulder-to-shoulder for the final furlong, battling down the stretch to the cheers of the crowd and it was Union Jack with the narrow victory. A well-deserved win for UJ, who has run very well this year and come up just short on several occasions.

Kid Flash set a track record in winning the Grade 3 Jersey Stakes. He looked extremely fit and was never really challenged. Equaline from KRF finished 2nd and Snowbank's Thunderdome finished 3rd.

And last, but not least, our fleet 4yo mare Nova was an easy winner in the Hempstead Handicap. She jumped to the lead early and never relented, winning by 3 lengths over Godolphin17's, Affinity. Nova stretched out the distance to 8.5 furlongs in this race after running at 6 or 7 furlongs all season.

Just an outstanding week for us here at Otsego Farms.

PSR Update

With 35 races in the book, the breakdown of our Power Speed Ratings looks like this:

PSR	RACES	PERCENT
120+	1	3%
110-119	2	6%
100-109	10	29%
90-99	8	23%
80-89	5	14%
70-79	1	3%
60-69	3	9%
50-59	2	6%
40-49	3	9%
30-39	0	0%
20-29	0	0%
10-19	0	0%
Below 0	0	0%

Still liking what we see here with 37% of our starts resulting in a PSR of 100 or more. PSR's over 90 comprise 60% of starts.

Wins are still difficult to come by as witnessed by Doomsday's sparkling 109, good only for 3rd place in the Standish Handicap.

In terms of peak value, he stands alone.

Domination.

For a 17 race span during his prime, that was the modus operandi of War Machine.

Over a full career, there are obviously other horses who have put up better numbers. Smart Money and A Bus come immediately to mind. Those fellows had the good fortune to stay at or near their peak for several seasons. They have forged their legacy by performing at high levels over a long period of time.

Conversely, War Machine was a shooting star who blazed across the sky in brief but undeniable glory. While he set the racing scene aflame in 2006, everyone watched and everyone noticed.

By Curule out of Mystic Lady, his breeding was less than epic. Perhaps this was the reason that he was barely noticed at auction as a 2yo. He flew under the radar and was purchased for a paltry $15,000 by Otsego Farms.

The AR compiled by our trainers looked solid, but did not portend what was to come. It correctly showed a preference for dirt and significant stamina. However, it did not accurately reflect his unearthly speed, jaw-dropping acceleration, and enormous heart.

He started his 2yo season well winning his first two races, the second of which was the Dubai Juvenile. He then went 6 races without a win.

War Machine finished the season with 4 consecutive victories, including the Breeders Cup Juvenile. It was at this point that his aura of invincibility began to formulate. He had thrown down the gauntlet for next season.

Two more victories to begin his 3yo campaign, which made 6 wins in a row, left little doubt as to who was Kentucky Derby favorite in 2006. It also caused consternation in our stable as to which Dubai race to enter, the UAE Derby for 3yo's, or the Dubai World Cup?

We felt we could win the UAE Derby against the other 3yo's, but when push came to shove, we made the decision to go for the big win at the World Cup. It was a tough decision because we knew that field would be full of quality older horses, including the reigning World Cup champ, Troll Tower.

It turned out to be a small field of six horses. In addition to Troll Tower, Photo-Finish legends Sobriety, and Southern Charm, were among the participants. War Machine won the race in track record time. and picked up his biggest purse of $3,600,000.

Later, a victory at the Wood Memorial made it 8 straight victories and he was set up for the American Triple Crown.

War Machine then went on to become the first and only Photo-Finish horse to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes, collecting a $1,000,000 bonus in addition to the $1,800,000 in purses.

Another victory at the Queen's Plate Stakes made it 12 consecutive victories.

Several weeks earlier, I had offered a bounty of $250,000 for the first horse to win a race in which War Machine was entered. Fields in his races were becoming smaller as other owners came to the realization that he could not be beaten. In order to ensure entries, I offered the additional bonus as an incentive.

That bonus was paid to Bally Doyle when Dancing Delaware upset War Machine in the Swaps Stakes. It was the only loss suffered by War Machine in 2006 and snapped his winning streak at 12.

He then finished the season with victories at the Visa Travers Stakes, the Super Derby XX, and the Breeders Cup Classic. War Machine also won his first race in 2007.

That made 16 victories in 17 races. Big races. Dubai Juvenile, Breeders Cup Juvenile, Dubai World Cup, Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont, Breeders Cup Classic. A sweep of those races will probably never happen again in Photo-Finish.

War Machine is currently at stud at Otsego Farms. He is limited to 5 pairings per year, one of which is reserved by Otsego Farms. He is booked for 2009 and currently has 2 openings remaining for 2010.