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Monday, February 28, 2011

8-2-3-0. I can live with that.

Refractor pulls away down the stretch.

Having gone close to a month without a win, I was glad to see a couple of them this weekend to get that monkey off my back.

Refractor, who was probably running beneath his station, won the 13F AJC Chairmans Handicap.  He was the prohibitive favorite and carried 17 lbs more than the closer competitor.  I have been trying to find longer races for Refractor and this one happened to be in the right place and right time.  He has posted his two best speed scores at 13F and 12.5F.  We think he may do his best work at 16F, and that is what we are aiming at down the road.  Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber was quoted as saying, "This fella is just starting to mature.  We think he'll be one of the major players at two miles for the next couple of years."

Shatterstar, the grizzled veteran 5yo, came up with a win in the GR3 Parramatta League Stakes at 7.5F.  It was the shortest race in his career.  "His huge lungs served him well in this race." Webber commented.  "He simply blew away the competition in the last furlong."

Crossbones, Necromancer, and up-and-coming 2yo Deep Magic all had second place finishes.

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Simple system for horse travel?

Simple is an insidious word, because what sounds simple to me, may be a programming nightmare for Laurie.

I'm not sure how most people feel about instituting a travel rule into Photo Finish, but I have been in favor of it for ages.  My gut feeling is the only thing holding it up is a way to introduce it to the game without the Administrator having to spend 6 months at hard labor.

I was thinking it about it again and I would suggest a simplified approach.  How about this for a possibility?  Divide the world up into four quadrants with North America in the top left,  South America in the bottom left, Eurasia in the top right, and Australia in the lower right, with each race track getting assigned to a quadrant.

The system would have to remember the quadrant that the horse raced in last.  Then, when choosing future races from the drop down menu, the only races that will show up will be the ones that can be reached in the allotted time.  For instance:

Next race in same quadrant - Horse can run in races after 14 days.
Next race in adjacent quadrant - Horse can run in 28 days.
Next race in diagonal quadrant - Horse can run in 42 days.

This would approximate the logistics/difficulties of intercontinental travel.  It would require that owners be a little more on their toes, no question about that.  I for one would welcome it.  Perhaps a column could be added to the stable page that would identify the horses current quadrant location.  That would help immensely in planning.

Any input on this subject?

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Still looking...

Otsego Farms is still in the market for one quality racer. 

Preferably a 3yo or a 4yo with two racing seasons left according to AR.  Sprinter, Miler, or Distance types are all acceptable.  I lean towards a filly but a colt would be OK.  I am looking to spend some cash...up to $2M (perhaps higher) for the right horse.

I've got a lot of young horses in the chute and I race my 2yo's very sparingly, so I need another veteran racer for next season and beyond.

Contact me at mvpcandidate@gmail.com.

Monday, February 21, 2011

Just a few things on my mind...

1)  The La Force experiment is officially over.  I bought him from Endless Vista for two reasons:
  • strong breeding
  • excellent stamina
As I mentioned previously, his AR says Sprinter, but that was under the old programming where some horses may have been misclassified.  I thought it was possible that he might have had a little more lung capacity than anticipated.  That may be true, but there is another fly in the ointment that continues to hamper his performance which I'll describe in layman's terms.... he's lazy!

No matter what distance he races, La Force simply will not exert himself.  I've raced him at 9F, 12F, and 16F.  He generally starts well, then settles in at effort-level 3 to breeze through the rest of the race.  That kind of work ethic is not permissible, so La Force has bought himself a ticket back to Endless Vista.

2)  Kayson threw up a 107 PSR and was only able to manage a 7th against GR1 opposition.  He's fast, but we'll try him at GR2 or GR3 next time out.

3)  We were very impressed with the 2nd place finish of Kit Fisto in his debut.  It was 8F on turf against four other 2yo's and the lone older horse, 5yo mare Light Touch, who was the winner.  Fisto was the favorite and carried the most weight.  He's the half-brother of 3yo colt Crossbones, so it looks like broodmare In Spirit may have thrown another decent one.

Friday, February 18, 2011

Otsego says goodbye to War Hammer

The enigmatic 3yo colt War Hammer (War Machine x Shattered Record) has been sold to Hey Buddy Racing Stable for $30,000.

"We had very high expectations for this fella, but he just hasn't panned out for us.  We are confident that he will do well for our friends at Hey Buddy", a rather subdued Jim Webber stated at the press conference to announce the sale.

The connections at Otsego Farms knew that War Hammer was going to mature slowly, but obviously decided they didn't want to wait.  "We're in a perpetual stall crunch and unfortunately, War Hammer has to be classified as collateral damage."  Webber continued, "We really like him and wish we had unlimited resources so we could bring him along at his own pace."

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Which way to go?

I've been writing the blog for over 4 years and I've changed the look many times.  The title has always been Otsego Insider, but the font and picture at the top have been modified often.

I was originally thinking that the look should remain static.  That would portray solidity and continuity.  I mean, how often has the banner and general look of the Wall Street Journal changed over the last 100 years?


But, I just can't seem to stay satisfied with the way the blog looks, therefore I change it often.  So I continue to struggle with the choice of finding a layout I like and keeping it forever, or changing it as often as my mood dictates.

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

I'll have a Gal in (near) Kalamazoo



I was putting my breeding pairs together, trying to be as logical as possible.  When I finally got done and the dust cleared, one pairing stood as follows: 

Jenny's My Gal x Affirm Gal 

What are the odds that I'd have a sire and a dam both with the word Gal in their names?  I didn't plan it that way.  They just ended up together as though it was meant to be.  That initially led me along the lines of Kismet/Karma for foal names. 

Eventually though, I thought that I just had to continue the Gal thread; whether the foal was a colt or a filly.  So the names for this pair will be:

COLT - Galahad
FILLY - Galaxi

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Always thinking...

As I mentioned in a previous post, I'm in the process of reconfiguring my stable to accommodate a maximum of the following:
  • 10 Foals
  • 10 One-year olds
  • 10 Two-year olds
  • 10 Three-year olds
  • 7 Older racers
  • 10 Broodmares
  • 3 Stallions
Sixty total stalls.  I figure it will take me until the end of 2015 to get everything the way I want it.

In that regard, I'm evaluating my current stock to see who will be leaving Otsego Farms between now and the end of the season.  I'll probably sell a couple soon, because my stable is currently full and I hate having no available stall space.  You never know when an emergency acquisition may be necessary, right.

My older racers next year will be headlined by 6yo Shatterstar, 5yo Kayson, and 4yo's House of M, Crossbones and Refractor.  Horses that will be in this potential category that will be sold are La Force, Necromancer, and War Hammer, with Nebula currently being on the bubble.  Nebula is a talented filly who I just can't seem to get a handle on.  She'll get a couple more chances to convince me, one way or the other, unless someone makes me an offer in the meantime that I can't refuse.

I'd like it if all of my current 2yo's made it into next season, but there is a possibility that one or perhaps two of them may have to be sacrificed.

I see myself adding 5 stalls at the end of this year, which would put me at 55.  I'm currently full with 50 horses and I will have 10 foals, so I need to cut my string to 45 by the end of the season in order to accommodate the youngsters.

Also, I'd like to spend another million or so to pick up one more nice racer.  Any ideas?

Sunday, February 06, 2011

I've had better weeks racing-wise, but something good still happened...

I'm not real happy with a record of 7-0-0-3 for the week.  Truth be told, I wasn't expecting too much because none of my top runners were going, but no wins or places in seven starts still smarts a bit. 

Xtra Run sure is a slow starter.  Worst breaking horse I've ever had.  She has other skills though and I'm still high on her, but she's gonna need to mature a bit and get into much longer races.  She finished 4th out of 7 this week. 

Shatterstar, Necromancer, and Quasar all has 3rd place finishes.  The first two fellows deserved to hit the board with nice efforts.  Quasar looked terrible though and if it wasn't just a 4-horse race, he would have finished well down the line.

You Know My Name looked decent in her debut finishing 5th out of 11.  Moondragon had a middle-of-the-pack finish, a disappointment after recording a win in her racing debut.  Art of Seduction had a rough trip with little clear sailing, but he looked OK in finishing 8th in a 18-horse field.

A positive development late in the weekend saw a deal between Otsego Farms and Hopeful Farm come to fruition.  Four-year-old sprinter Kayson (Handsome Man x Lady Kay, picture above courtesy of The Hopeful Report) will join our stable at a cost of $1,250,000.  

We have a distinct lack of sprinters, and needed another veteran racer so Kayson fits the bill on both accounts.  He's definitely got speed in the 5-6F range, putting up PSR's of 109, 108, 105 and 104, and he's a late maturing type, so we feel he'll have at least one more full season at peak performance.  We're very happy to have him.

Saturday, February 05, 2011

Thwarted, but not defeated in my attempts to buy a horse

I have been trying for the last month to buy one more good racer or up-and-comer.  I want a proven commodity with another season or two in the tank, or a blue-chip prospect; and I'm willing to pay the necessary price.

I've recently had my eye on two horses, neither of which was ever offered on the sales page.  On one horse, I made an unsolicted offer.  The other horse was offered to me as a possibility.  Negotiations on both showed some promise, but were ultimately unsuccessful.  Understandably, owners are leery about selling good horses.

So, I continue to have my eye open for talent.  I've got just a single open stall, so I'm being picky about who occupies it.  Once it is filled, I'll be out of the market until late in the season.  At that time, I'll be clearing out some stock to make room for 10 incoming foals.

La Force, Necromancer, and War Hammer are three names that have come up as prospects to be sold.  However, I've made a mental committment to keep these fella's until late in the season to give them every chance to succeed.  Eventually, a couple others will be chosen to join that outgoing group.

But for now, my energies are aimed towards one more solid purchase.  If anyone reads this and wishes to make a suggestion of one of their horses, please do.  I'll ask that you not be offended if I decline, because I am looking for a very specific type of talent.

Friday, February 04, 2011

Big racing week at Otsego Farms

7-5-3. Those are the magic numbers this week.

Seven total racers. That is a lot for me considering that I've had just over 40 entries all year so far.

Five two-year-old entries. I've only had 7 entries total for all of my 2yo's thus far in 2014.

Three Otsego Farms debut races. New acquisitions Art of Seduction and Necromancer both make their first appearances in the Blue and Yellow, and the 2yo filly You Know My Name (Union Jack x Shattered Record) hits the track for the first time in her career.

Moondragon will run in the 5.5F Tippett Stakes looking to make it two in a row after getting the win in her first race.  The field has 13 entries which is just past the normal tipping point where I scratch a 2yo, but I decided to give it a go based on her strong previous showing.

Xtra Run makes her second start in the 6F Angle C Stakes.  She's a slow starter who did not perform well in her debut at a short 4.5F.  The extra distance should help her immensely, and even though it's probably still way too short for her, we're predicting a win.

Veteran Shatterstar, who will stick around at the stable for as long as it takes to become a million dollar earner,  and 2yo Quasar (Revenge x Nova) round out the entries.

Wednesday, February 02, 2011

Latest scientific discovery at the Photo Finish laboratory.

In real life, horses do better with adequate rest.  In most cases, that is also true in Photo Finish.

We're all tempted to run these fantasy critters every 14 days or even more frequently than that because it's fun and because it's usually more profitable to race them than to rest them.  Some of us are more than tempted, we just do it.  Sometimes by design, sometimes by accident.

I always suspected that the software was sophisticated enough to deal harshly with over-racing.  It was advertised as the most realistic racing simulation on the market.  How could it not?

And yet there are instances in Photo Finish where lack of rest does not always doom a horse.  I wonder why?  Perhaps because, like in real life racing, there are horses who can handle a heavy workload with little trouble.

In any event, I was curious about how lack of rest affects a horse and I thought I'd check into it.  I'm not sure why it never occurred to me to look at this before, but I decided to look at a horses four main attributes when well-rested, then again when not well-rested.  A perfect test case emerged a couple weeks ago when Myasa won a race on 5-30-14, then lost horribly on short rest on 6-3-14.

Port Pirie took some heat on the June entry with some camps believing it was a simple case of greed.  Connections at Port Pirie insisted it was just an oversight.  Either way, it is a perfect example for this test.

The four attributes for Myasa when well-rested were:

Break Speed - 81
Early Speed - 90
Top Speed - 91
Stamina - 70

Very good overall ratings.  Good enough for her to easily win the race at 12F against some tough hombres like Run On Sentence, Pluto, and Refractor.

She was back on the track in just 4 days and her lack of rest manifested itself with these numbers:

Break Speed - 73
Early Speed - 88
Top Speed - 89
Stamina - 66

Across the board, the numbers were way down.  The stamina number was especially poor, and woefully inadequate for The Derby at 12F.  She finished last.

So, we have to keep this in mind.  I've had racers that finished a race with an ESN of 1200 (I don't know what Myasa's ESN was after the first race) and I thought, "Cool.  He hardly worked at all.  I can probably send him to that race in 16 days with no repercussions."  

However, if a horse finishes a race with a solidly positive ESN, perhaps that by itself doesn't necessarily mean he may be ready to race soon.  Maybe, as reflected in Myasa's case, the base numbers are still affected negatively, which will probably manifest itself in ugly fashion on the track.

Maybe some of you knew this.  I knew the base numbers got better as a horse matured to full strength and then declined as the horse aged.  I never really thought about significant race-to-race changes as a result of how the horse was being treated.  I'll look more closely at this in the future, that's for sure.