The annual horse-naming trial

Well, now that I have all my pairings figured out for breeding, the foal-naming process begins in earnest.

I originally dubbed my stable "The Superheroes of Racing" because of my penchant for choosing superhero names from the DC and Marvel Universes.  For the last couple of years, I've found it tougher and tougher to find names I liked, so I've been branching out a bit into heroic and infamous historical and literary figures.  That is where names like Charlemagne, Kit Fisto, Boudica, and Jack the Ripper came from.

I've got several picked out for this year already, and I ran them by my wife to test the waters.  Some passed that litmus test and others did not.  She felt a couple were too pretentious.  One in particular that she did not like was "The Golden One".

I recently finished a 3-book series (historical fiction) on the Trojan War.  In these books, there was a character named Helikaon, who was an ally of King Priam of Troy.  He was so gifted in every way that he was said to be favored by the gods, hence his nickname of "The Golden One".  I admired the character and thought the name was fitting for a racing thoroughbred.

So, because my vote is the only one that counts (with regard to Otsego Farms), The Golden One passes muster and will be another colt name for 2015.

Inspiration for a horse name

This song has a hold on me.  Always has.  Therefore, one of my colts next breeding season will be named Schoolboy Crush.

$1000? Why not?

Because the majority of my racers are 2yo's and I race then so sparingly, I have very few entries each week.  So, in the interest of having a little more fun, I thought I'd pick up a couple of veteran racers and Necromancer was out there waiting to be plucked.

He's a 3yo who he has shown that he has some talent.  At 8.5F, he has put up PSR's of 95, 93, and 79 and he's been in the money in 6 of 10 career races.

I was kinda surprised that no one else even bothered to steal him away by risking just $1500.  I thought that a newer stable looking for a horse to bring in a little cash might take a chance on him.

He'll occupy a stall as a racer here at Otsego Farms until the end of the season, then he'll be moved out to make way for younger horses. 

I think I've finally figured it out...

While sitting under an apple tree, Sir Isaac Newton was inspired to create his universal theory of gravitation when an apple dropped on his head.  I have recently had a similar epiphany and discovered what I believe to be a universal truth.

What is this universal truth? 

There is not a lot of value in two-year-old horses. 

The fact is, I just don't run them enough for them to be worth much.  Here we are at the halfway point in the season and my ten 2yo's have run a combined total of SIX races.  Now, how in the heck can I make judgements on the value and keepability of these horses if the database for my consideration is so small?

You see, I'm forced to make value judgements quickly on these horses because of my stall situation.  My 50-stall organization was supposed to be comprised as follows:

3 Stallions

10 Broodmares

10 Two-year olds

10 One-year olds

10 Foals

7 Racers aged 3+

My problem?  Because of my propensity to severely limit my 2yo entries, I don't have enough data to make an informed decision on which 2yo's go and which stay.  There is only one remedy for this quandary. 

I gotta have more stalls!

My new configuration will be exactly as above with one addition:

10 Three-year olds

Basically, all of the 2yo's will get a free pass into their 3yo season and I'll take a little longer to evaluate them.  At some time during that season, some will undoubtedly get the boot, but it won't be before they have convinced me thoroughly of their lack of talent.

This just feels right.

Lightning strikes twice...

I haven't had alot of debut wins with 2yo's in the past few seasons.  In fact, I've had very few in the history of Otsego Farms.  The only ones that come to mind are War Machine and Huntress.  Well, 2014 is shaping up as a banner year in this category with not one, but TWO debut victories.

Earlier this season, Captain Britain (Union Jack x Flawless) won his first race at 8F on turf, and this past weekend, the unheralded filly Moondragon (Moet x Monsoon) took the lead and held on to win the 5F Balcrest Stakes.

I say "unheralded" because there were several 2yo's that rated higher in our system this season than Moondragon.  The dam, Monsoon, was a middle-of-the-road racer who did display some ability, but was by no means a star.  Sire Moet was a tremendously fast sprinter who has had some success in the breeding shed, but hasn't made a huge splash yet.

I've still got three unraced 2yo's waiting to make their debut.  Is it possible that lightning can strike thrice?

Flying to Oz...

I actually get to debut a 2yo this weekend.  I've been trying for weeks to get  my last few 2yo's out there, but the fields have been too big. 

Finally, a decent sized field and therefore, Moondragon will make her first appearance.  There will be just 10 horses in the 5F Balcrest Stakes on the turf in Morphettville.  She's a miler by Moet out of Monsoon and hasn't struck our trainers as a top-notch prospect, but that can all change with a solid showing Down Under.

It was a bit of an expense to ship Moondragon all the way to South Australia for her debut, but I had business there anyway, so I thought I'd tag along, killing two birds, so to speak.

Also, project-horse La Force will try his hand at 16F at Shenandoah Downs.  I had an idea that he might be able to handle longer distances, so I picked him up as an experiment.  His first race for Otsego Farms at 12F did not go well, but he didn't exert himself at all, so we figure we'll try to make him work a bit at 2 miles.

Stable stalwarts House of M and Nebula will both race this weekend as well.  Obviously, expectations are higher for these fillies.  We expect both to hit the board.  Initially we were predicting 2 wins, but the competition in the A Gleam Handicap got a little stiff, so while we think she's capable, it'll be a tougher road for Nebula in our opinion.

Somebody stop me...

I'm reasonably patient when it comes to my horses.  However, when I have a blue-chip prospect who has a record of 4-0-0-0 in the middle of his 3yo season, my patience begins to ebb.

In fairness to him, War Hammer's (War Machine x Shattered Record) AR states that he will mature at the average rate (age 3-4).  So, some slack must be cut in regard to his pitiful performances thus far.

But in his last race, a 8F affair on turf (which should be well within his abilities distance-wise), he went off at 31-1 and finished last, 31 lengths off the lead and 24 lengths behind the next worst horse.  That type of performance does not instill confidence, especially for a horse, as I said,  in the middle of his 3yo season.

So, why do I need to be stopped? 

Because I wanna sell this horse.  Every fiber of my being screams at me to put this horse on the sales page.  I've commented about it a couple times in this blog and the only reason I haven't sold him yet is because somebody who's opinion I respect suggested I hold out a bit longer.

I keep looking at my stall situation though and it's very apparent that several horses will have to go to make room for the new crop of 10 foals coming in next year.  So why not beat the rush and find a new home for this fella now?

You can carve this in granite.  He gets one more start.  I'll give him 60 days to rest (and mature a smidgen more) then he better show me something.

Baby Greyhound revisited...

While trying to determine the optimum stallion for BG, I decided that a check of her racing statistics might provide some insight.  I've seen her AR, which states that her best distance was 12F, but that was back in the day when AR's were considered much less reliable (and that is saying something because many people think they still may be worthless, despite some tweaks by Laurie).

I went to the middle of her 3yo season and picked a 9F race in which she finished 2nd.  Checking the race stats, I saw that her Top Speed was 90, which would be very good for a 12F runner.  I was expecting to see a Stamina number in the 70-71 range, but unfortunately it was just 68, which equates to more of a miler-type, in my opinion.

Hmmm.  Now where did that "best distance 12F" come from?  The answer was found when I looked at the Kick rating.  This is a rating that evidently measures courage or strength down the stretch.  Baby Greyhound's rating was over 1000, which is excellent.  To put that into perspective, that rating typically ranges in the 300-800 range for most horses, with the higher number being better.  At one time, I believe the Kick rating was used in determining the preferred distance for a horse.

Predator was also a horse whose AR said 12F was his best distance.  That was evidently also determined in part by an abnormally high Kick rating.  The truth was...Predator was always better at 8F or less.

So, it seems to me that my new girl is not quite the horse I thought she was.  Rather than a producer of stayers, it looks like she might crank out courageous milers with a finishing kick, and that's OK with me.  I was gonna match her with Union Jack, but after digesting all of this, I may be on the lookout for a miler-type stallion instead.

Broodmare Baby Greyhound acquired

"The twelve-year old broodmare Baby Greyhound was acquired from Endless Vista today and will join our stable in the next week or so", Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber announced late Sunday afternoon.

"Wanting to pick up one more mare to make it an even 10, I've been looking at some options for the past few days. I have always liked Baby Greyhound and was surprised she was available.  I feel that her attributes are perfect for the kind of foals we want to produce."

Because of this acquisition, some shuffling will take place in the previously announced pairings for 2015 breeding. At this point, it is undecided exactly how things will shake out, but early reports having Shattered Record switching over to the Oak Tree stallion Take A Gander, with Baby Greyhound taking a spot with Union Jack.

All systems are go...

I've got a feeling about this filly.  Run Missy Run x Xtra Heat?  Are ya kidding me?  She's gotta be fast, doesn't she?

She didn't get a lot of love in her first start.  The bookies sent her off at 21-1 and only two horses had worse odds.  In spite of a horrific start, she rallied to finish 5th with a respectable 80 PSR.

Looking at her stats after the race, I saw that she is fast, just like I had hoped.  I also saw that she was a very slow starter, and had I known that, I wouldn't have started her in a short 4.5F race.  She just couldn't make up the ground after breaking poorly and hitting the 2F pole in 9th place.  Fortunately, the gate speed blurb was reinstated into the AR's last season, so this will not be an issue going forward.

I'm very high on Xtra Run, as I should be with her breeding, and considering I spent $1,000,000 in prying her away from Mike at Noble Farms. 

Keep an eye on her.  She'll go a little longer next time and I'm predicting a win.

Love / Hate Relationship

I love (and hate) having a bunch of fresh, shiny new 2yo's every year. 

Two seasons earlier, you carefully chose all of the pairings and when these 2yo's are finally ready to begin racing, they are a fresh canvas on which a masterpiece is waiting to be painted.  This in an intrinsically satisfying process.  It's also a lot of fun to witness their first race, drinking in the pre-race stats and odds, then savoring the tension as your finger is poised over the Start Race button.  Finally, enjoying the race itself.

On the other side of the coin, there is that letdown that we have all experienced, when your new horse breaks poorly, trails the pack, steadily loses ground, and finishes last.  Now you realize that even though you've waited 2 seasons for this phenom, he's not ready to race and he'll probably be on the shelf for another year.  Immaturity is the bane of every 2yo owner.

As Chelsey said in her blog today, patience is sometimes required with racehorses.  Unfortunately, some of us don't possess it in sufficient quantities. 

Many owners have sold off a horses, knowing full well that it was immature and that was the reason for it's troubles.  They've waited two seasons for that dang horse and psychologically, they are all-in.  The chips have been pushed out onto the table and there is no pulling them back.  They think, "I'm not waiting another year to race this horse", and it's gone to the sales page.  Happens all the time.

Most of the time, it's the right move.  If they are shit early, they are usually shit later as well.  But... not always.  There have been many celebrated cases of owners giving up on youngsters too early, and there is nothing more painful than to watch a horse you kicked to the curb turn into a superstar for another stable.

So, there you have it.  Love 'em or hate 'em, we'll all keep cranking them out because we all want that home-bred superstar and you gotta kiss a lot of frogs to find a Prince, right?

By the way, don't even get me started on all the 20-horse fields.

Quite a coincidence...

A couple days ago Ryan put this link up on the forum and suggested that this song be our new stable anthem.

The video that is shown with this song is a collections of scenes from the movie "Blade: Trinity".

Coincidentally, I had a part in that film.  It was a couple of years before I hit it big with my starring role in Crank 2.  Here is a still photo of me as my character, Hannibal King.

Reflections on racing weeks 21-22

House of M continues to mature into a force to be reckoned with.  She won the 8.5F Milady Handicap in relatively easy fashion and was as fresh as a daisy after the race.  She definitely has more distance in her.

Nebula also raced in an 8.5F GR1 race, but didn't fare quite as well.  She finished 2nd in a small 4-horse field, laboring at the finish.  A 45-day rest and a slightly shorter distance next time will suit her well.

Refractor had a very  odd trip.  His jockey was under strict orders to trail the pack and make a run at the end.  That is not the way the race unfolded however with Refractor contending for the lead early on.  This left him a little short down the stretch, where he slipped back to 4th place in the Japanese Derby.  His $160,000 payday took a little sting out of the disappointing finish however.

War Hammer (sigh) .  I'm afraid that he may have reached the end of the road at Otsego Farms.  He really didn't have a lot of business being in the GR2 race this weekend, but the distance was right and it was a small field so I figured, "Why the Hell not?"   I didn't expect a win.  I just wanted to see some small bit of improvement.  It didn't happen, so he'll probably hit the sales page.  His AR says he like a lot of distance and that he will mature at age 3-4, so maybe there is some bit of hope for this fellow in the future, but it won't be at Otsego Farms.

Mega-prospect Quasar was very disappointing in his debut.  Analyzing his numbers this morning certainly did not instill confidence either.  He is supposed to mature early and since we are in the middle of his 2yo season, I expected something more than the awful showing he produced.  With my stall situation, I can't afford to spend a lot of time with early-maturing horses that show nothing.  He'll get one more try in an attempt to hang on to his stall.

Last second entry flip...

I really want to see what Refractor can do at 16F.  His speed is not his best asset, but I think he has the potential to outlast most other horses, hence his intial entry in the 16F Perth Cup.  He sat as an entrant in that field all week, only to be yanked at the last moment and put in the 12F Japanese Derby.

The bottom line is... I couldn't pass up what I felt was an inferior field in a much more lucrative race.

In the Perth Cup, Refractor would be facing Druido Supremo, Duo Power, High Heart, and the still dangerous Islegetrevenge.  All that risk for a smallish $350,000 purse?  Even though I felt Refractor could hold his own against those fella's, the risk/reward ratio just didn't seem adequate to me.

On the other hand, the $3,200,000 purse in the Japanese Derby is heavenly against a relatively unproven field.  Obviously Pluto is a concern, as are a couple of the other horses, but even a 3rd place finish in that race would pay $320,000, which is more than the winner will collect in the Perth Cup.

So, I was forced to make the change.  As a strategic move, I naturally waited until the last moment.

Ironically, I am always a little annoyed by the last second entry in a race where I have a horse.  Sorry for doing that folks.  I have championed random cut-offs on entries in the past, so that people like me cannot wait until 7:59 to drop a horse on an unsuspecting field.  But that is a different subject altogether.

I think Refractor has a tremendous chance to hit the board in the Japanese Derby and at least a punchers chance at the win.  I'd be a lot more confident with a couple more furlongs, but ya can't have everything.  Right?

Otsego Stud heating up...

I've had several inquiries in just the past few days concerning stud service by War Machine (pictured above), Nightwing, and Union Jack.  These inquiries have resulted in a few bookings.

This rash of activity is probably in response to the recent, and in some cases brilliant success of the following horses:

By War Machine - Blood, Conscription, House of M, General Admission, Southern Belle, and War of the Lillies.

By Nightwing - Crossbones, Green Parrot, and Under My Feet.

By Union Jack - Captain Britain, Fra' Diavolo, and Gravedigger.

Otsego Farms is holding 5 spaces from each stallion for personal consumption; leaving 10 available for each horse.  These will be filled first-come first-serve.  My studs are available only on a quid pro quo basis...meaning I'll swap bookings if you have a stud that I like or if we have done business before (or if you're one of my peeps...you know who you are).  If you do not have an appropriate stud or connections, I'd consider selling the spots on a case-by-case basis for $50,000 each or less.

These studs have had surplus capacity in the past, so it may not be an issue this season, but with the success of their recent batches, they may now have a little more appeal.  I expect Union Jack in particular to be a fairly hot commodity, so plan accordingly if you have any interest.

Captain Britain victorious in debut

The spirited 2yo bay colt Captain Britain won the 8F Bank of Queensland Stakes this weekend, continuing a very hot streak for the offspring of his sire Union Jack, who's initial crop has hit the ground running this year with a combined record of 8-3-1-1.  Olmo Dorato's Fra' Diavolo is currently a perfect 2-2-0-0, and Snowbank's, Gravedigger sports a 3-0-1-1 record.  Additionally, Stars and Bars from History's Own finished 4th in a 17-horse field.

"Captain was a little winded at the end, no doubt about that," Otsego owner Jim Webber observed in the pressroom after the race.  "Eight furlongs is a little long for an Otsego debut, but we knew he had it in him."

Then thanking the reporters, Webber ducked out saying, "OK, gotta run.  Foxie made the trip down from the Gold Coast to watch this race.  We're celebrating with a bottle of Dom Perignon 2002."

When asked why he was celebrating with Foxie, Webber responded, "She's been a fan of Union Jack as a sire for a long time.  She keeps an eye on how his offspring are doing.  Watch for her boy Alphabet later in the season."