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Friday, September 20, 2013

As rare as Unobtainium and just as valuable

In the movie Avatar, the mineral Unobtanium is a superconductor for energy, which makes it very desirable. It is worth $20 million per kilogram unrefined ($40 million refined) on Earth.

Unobtanium's unique properties and scarcity determine it's value.  Similarly, the elusive Excellent stamina rating in Photo Finish does the same.  The horses that possess it are rare and therefore valuable.

Not all horses with EX stamina are superstars, but the vast majority are very good.  In my opinion, this rating above all others, is the most reliable tool to measure the probability of success.

Currently, there are 3174 horses with the RACER designation.  Of this population, only 30 have Excellent stamina.  That is less than 1% of all racers.  Only 17 stables own at least one horse with EX stamina, with just 6 of those stables owning more than one.  The stables that have more than one horse with EX stamina are:

Firstholme - 2
Rivendell - 2
Sunshine - 2
FDL - 3
Pendfold - 3
Otsego - 7

There are only 5 sires who have produced more than one EX stamina horse.  They are:

Braveheart, FDL - 2
Memcay, Rainbow - 2
Heat Seeker, FDL - 2
A Bus, Port Pirie - 2
Union Jack, Otsego - 3

Only one mare has produced more than a single EX stamina horse.  She is list mare Ticket to Dance.

Rarest of the rare?  Fillies with the Ex stamina trait.  Currently, there are just 2 fillies meeting this criteria. That is just .06% of the current racing population.  These two ultra-rare commodities are Dream d'Oro 3F from Absinthe, and Blank KD 2F, from Godolphin17.