Case Study: How not to buy and sell horses.

In his last 7 races, The Fates (not pictured above) has won $422,500.  During that time his PSR's have averaged well over 100.  Sounds like a horse worth keeping, doesn't it?

Not so for Hutton's Horse Haven who sold the horse for a pittance recently to make room for the likes of Aftershock, Busby's Babe, Compass, Gypsum, Justice For All, Neptune, and Top Rank Suite.  These paragons of racing have combined for a record of 43-0-0-4, with career earnings of $29,000.  Eighteen of those 43 races have resulted in last place finishes. 

We've all made unwise and rash decisions.  I sold Stowaway, a horse I loved and who was very good to my stable financially for a rat $7500 because he had a couple bad races and I thought he might be done.  That decision was rash...and stupid.  But because I've done it myself, I can forgive Hutton for selling The Fates.  What I can't forgive or understand, is his propensity to buy bad racehorses.  Especially in this case when he's buying not one, but 7 bad racehorses.  If there was a Board of Directors at HHH, Jim Hutton would be fired and he would deserve it!  

Like Amanda said (I can't call her Mandy anymore because it annoys her very proper British husband), it's sometimes better to have a vacant stall than a stall inhabited by a worthless, money-consuming horse.

The formula is pretty simple:

1. Hang on to the decent to good horses and divest yourself of the bad horses.  
2. Occasionally, take a chance on an under-performing horse if there are mitigating circumstances that explain the poor performances, such as immaturity or improper management.
3. And most importantly, do not buy 7 bad horses at the same time.

Follow these simple rules and you may be able to remain solvent until you strike it rich.

May already?

How much longer can I hold out on racing these 2yo's?

Here we are in the middle of May and I've sent just two of my youngsters out to the track.  Deep Magic and Xtra Run have both raced once with middling results, but eight others (nine if you count acquired 2yo Art of Seduction who hasn't raced for Otsego Farms yet) have yet to run.

With the early success that Union Jack has enjoyed as a sire, I'm particularly interested in getting Captain Britain, 2yo colt turf stayer, and You Know My Name, 2yo dirt classic, into the fray, but the right opportunity hasn't arrived.

Which brings me to the real reason I'm writing this article.  WE NEED MORE 2YO RACES.

Every year, we break records with the number of foals being born.  We've got 2yo's coming out our ears every season, and yet we still don't have enough races to accommodate them all.

I look at the race card every week and I see a bunch of races for 3, 4, and 5 year olds that have small fields.  I'm talking four or five horse fields by the handful every week. 

But not for the 2yo's.  As you all know, the 2yo fields are commonly 15-20 horses large, with under 12 being very scarce.  I'm just wondering why we can't have more 2yo races so we all don't have to deal with 20 horse fields every time out.

Heck, I'd like to race my early maturing 2yo's a little more, but I just cannot justify putting them out there in a 20-horse scrum for a $48,000 purse.  With the sizes of my stable and breeding operation, my racing string is comprised of about 67% 2yo's and it will be that way going forward as well.  It explains why I have only 23 races in the book even though the season is 40% over.

From past experience, it seems like the 2yo fields get somewhat smaller later in the season.  Perhaps we only need more races earlier in the year?  I don't really have an answer, I can only mention the problem.  And in my opinion, 20-horse fields being the norm for 2yo races doesn't seem right.

Preakness for Crossbones?

Crossbones, the 3yo colt by Nightwing out of In Spirit, will skip the Preakness even after racing to a strong 3rd place finish in the Kentucky Derby.  The bay colt has fashioned a career record of 8-2-1-3 thus far with earnings of $730,000.

With a shrug of his shoulders, Otsego owner Jim Webber confessed, "I screwed up.  No question about that.  I wasn't thinking of Crossbones as a Triple Crown candidate so I entered him in the Wood, just 19 days prior to the Derby.  After winning that race, I felt he deserved a shot and was happy with the result."

Crossbones finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby behind the winner Isca's Dawn, filly from Smokey's Stable and colt Mongoose from Oak Tree.

"However, the 14-day turnaround to the Preakness is just too quick for where Crossbones is at physically right now.  Therefore, he'll skip the Preakness and begin training immediately for the Belmont.  Questions?"

After his performance in the Wood, did you think Crossbones could win the Derby?  "He's a talented horse and I knew he's be in the mix, but I wasn't really expecting a win."

Do you feel like you're shortchanging Otsego Farms by not continuing along the Triple Crown path?  "No.  If he'd won the Derby, I would have thrown caution to the wind and entered the Preakness.  That didn't happen so I can afford to take a more realistic approach."

Can Crossbones win the Belmont?  "Yes.  I think his speed/stamina ratio favors the 12F race.  He'll be there and I'm sure he'll do well."

"No more questions guys.  I've gotta get to the airport and get the jet ready to take a guest home that I've had for the weekend."

Camera's flashed as Webber left the room while reporters yelled out, "Where are you going?"

As security escorted him from the room, Webber looked over his shoulder and said, "London."

Crossbones, Refractor both place 3rd in big races.

My racing results this week left me satisfied, and yet unsatisfied. 

A 3rd place finish in the Kentucky Derby is certainly quite an accomplishment for Crossbones.  Truth be told, I didn't think he would win it, especially on a relatively quick turnaround from his last race.  Now, the Preakness looms a scant 14 days down the road.  He may not be ready.  We'll see how the field shapes up before a decision is made.

Refractor finished 3rd in the Derby Italiano.  Also, a worthy feat.  However, I felt he had a tremendous chance of winning that race so again I was, in a sense, disappointed.

House of M had a decent showing, with a 5th in the Kentucky Oaks and Nebula finished 4th for the 3rd consecutive race.

Newly-acquired LaForce continues to be an enigma.  His AR says he's a sprinter but his stamina rating suggests he may be a stayer.  My plan was to try him in longer races.  His first attempt for Otsego Farms was at 12F and he didn't do well.  The troubling thing was watching him run a significant part of the last third of the race at a leisurely effort level 3.  He finished the race with a ton of excess stamina due to his indolent attitude.  He'll get an even longer distance next time out. 

On the bright side, my quasi-predictions on the Kentucky Derby were largely accurate, so at least I have that going for me, right?

Observations on the 2014 Kentucky Derby Field

The 2014 Photo Finish Kentucky Derby will have a full field of 20 racers, and depending on how the trip goes for each horse, I figure there are probably about 12 horses who have a shot to win this race.

I checked the base stats that each entrant had in their last race and that data may be sufficient to draw some conclusions about this race.  I'm not gonna make any specific placing predictions mind you. Just observations such as:

Fastest Gate Speed: Ash Wednesday, General Beauregard.

The General has enough stamina to go the distance.  Ash Wednesday does not, so don't get stuck behind him when he starts to fade.

Fastest Early Speed: Spaceman

Fastest Top Speed: Spaceman

He's the quickest horse in the race, no doubt about that.  Lightning Sky's is a close second.  Spaceman is faster out of the gate so I expect him to be stalking early, then out front for a while.

Best Stamina: Pluto

He's a monster and would be my hands-down favorite for the Belmont.  The question is, does he have the speed for the 10F Derby?  He'll be roaring down the stretch; count on that.  Methy Bus, Missy's KD, and Nemesis also have plenty of lungs with Missy's KD being the slowest (by far) of the three.

Worst Stamina: Ash Wednesday, Lightning Sky's, Spaceman.

I have grave reservations about any of these three being able to handle 10F.  They may wreak havoc when they start to back up after 9F.  Better tell your jockey to go wide on the last turn.

Horses that will not win:

Ash Wednesday, Black Mirage, Lightning Sky's, Missy's KD, Spaceman, Troll Emblem.

Possible, but improbable:

General Beauregard, Honestly, Peridot, Tomahawk, Under My Feet, Wolfsbane.

Winner from this group:

Bubbles, Crossbones, Isca's Dawn, Methy Bus, Mongoose, Nemesis, Pluto, Street Fighter

A slow pace will favor Methy Bus, Nemesis, and Pluto.  A fast pace will favor Isca's Dawn.

Good luck to all.

Crossbones wins Wood, punches ticket to Churchill Downs

It was six years ago when the last Otsego Farms horse ran in the Kentucky Derby.  Union Jack, primarily a turf runner, finished 7th in 2008.  This year however, will see a return of the blue and yellow silks at fabled Churchill Downs.

Crossbones, the feisty bay colt by Nightwing out of In Spirit will make a run for the roses after winning the Wood Memorial this weekend.

"Up until the moment he crossed the finish line in the Wood, I hadn't given a thought to the Kentucky Derby", Otsego owner Jim Webber stated as he sipped champagne in the clubhouse at Aqueduct.  "His last two efforts on dirt have been spectacular though and I think he deserves a shot at the Derby.  I'm a little concerned about the quick turnaround.  It's just 19 or 20 days of rest and I prefer a solid 30 if possible."

"I'll have to consult someone who's an expert on backing up his horses."  Then looking over both shoulders for one of his Personal Assistants, Webber yelled, "Somebody get LaFleur on the phone!"

Otsego studs starting to shine!

Southern Belle (War Machine x Southern Charm), Crossbones (Nightwing x In Spirit), and Fra' Diavolo (Union Jack x Queen Street) all won this week, giving some momentum and renown to Otsego Farms Stud Service.

Southern Belle won the GR2 Fantasy Stakes running her record to 8-3-2-1.  Fra' Diavola made it a perfect 2-2-0-0 with his victory in the GR2 Maribyrnong Stakes.  As a sidenote, the Snowbank colt Gravedigger (Union Jack x Spiritual) finished 2nd in the Maribyrnong.

The big winner of the day however was Crossbones.  Displaying the come-from-behind strategy that made his sire famous, he won the $750,000 GR2 Wood Memorial, giving him a career mark of 7-2-1-2.

Additionally, sources are reporting that Southern Belle will also be entering the Kentucky Oaks on May 2 at Churchill Downs in a face-off against another War Machine filly, House of M.  That field promises to be stacked with talent.  In addition to the two War Machine fillies, Bravy's Lass, Celestial Glaze, Mermaid, and She's A Hottie are reportedly on board as well.

Shameless self-promotion?

Is it bad that I'm a prolific self-promoter?

I've been extremely active in the Forum for over 7 years.  Only one person has more posts, not counting the Administrator, and I'm gunning for her. 

I've been doing this blog for over 4 years.  This will be the 346th post.

I've nicknamed my stable the Superheroes of Racing; a moniker I've used countless times in the past.  In fact, I've named many of my horses after superheroes to tie it all together.

I've published many comedic pictures and stories on myself to flesh out my make-believe lavish and celebratory lifestyle.  The picture to the left shows me with Will Smith, Posh Spice, and Tom Cruise.

 

I have a logo.  You can even buy an Otsego Farms tee-shirt for Christ's Sake! 

http://www.cafepress.com/otsegofarms

All in fun, and all to increase the scope of Photo Finish... by some small degree.

Yeah, I know what you're thinking.  But I do have a life!  Four kids and a wife of 30 years!

It's just that when I find something I like, I have to submerse myself in it as deeply as possible.  Short of actually buying a horse, this is all I can do.

At least my wife knows where I am every night...

Clear as mud?

An excerpt from a recent thread in the Photo Finish Forum...

If a Serena's Song was bred to Empire Maker one year then Chester House the next, the offspring would be 3/4 siblings since both these stallions were out of the brilliant mare Toussaud but by different sires.   Now that I think of it, these 2 foals would technically be closer than 3/4 because Chester House was sired by Mr P & Empire Maker by Unbridled who was a grandson of Mr P.  But most would just call them 3/4 brothers.

I confess that I only got halfway through this before I got confused, or was it overwhelmed?

I don't hate sprinters...

With a breeding operation headed up by War Machine, Nightwing, and Union Jack, I don't see a lot of home-grown sprinters.  Because of those studs, and the compatible broodmares that I've accumulated, the vast majority of foals I produce are Classic or Long Distance types.

This is not necessarily due to a predilection to stayers, it is more or less the hand I've been dealt.  I have long-distance studs, therefore I produce long-distance foals.

Nova and Domino are mares I have that are more capable of cranking out sprinters, and if that happens I have no problem with it. 

But since I "specialize" in distance horses, I tend to keep my eyes open for available talent that falls into that category.  Enter Refractor, Art of Seduction, and La Force.

All three have stamina numbers that are very high.  That is what I look for.  I really don't care that much about the ancillary numbers and statistics, or what the AR says.  Art of Seduction and La Force are both AR-catagorized as Sprinters even though they have stamina numbers of 72. 

La Force is a particularly speculative purchase, having failed at three of the best stables in the game.  But just like in basketball where you can't coach height, in PF you can't coach stamina; and La Force seems to have it, so why not give him a try at distance?  Art of Seduction has only raced once so he is much less of a risk.  He has boatloads of stamina and that is what caught my eye.

Neither one is steeped in "the Force" like Refractor, who owns the eye-popping and elusive 73 stamina rating.  But for a measly $182,000 I picked up a couple nicely-bred horses that may have more innate talent than they've been given credit for.

Keep an eye open for them.  Depending on how they do, it'll give you an opportunity to marvel at my genius, or chuckle at my stupidity.

La Force est dans la maison.

The 4yo La Force has joined Otsego Farms.  

Formerly of FDL Lodge, Bally Doyle, Olmo Dorato, and Endless Vista, the well-bred  4yo colt will don the blue and yellow of Otsego and try to salvage what has been a disappointing career.

"Braveheart and Madame de Francais.   That's pretty good breeding", Otsego owner Jim Webber opined in a classic understatement.  "I got a tip on this fella from one of my scouts.  My guess is that he's got more stamina than he's been given credit for."  When asked why he would purchase a horse who is winless in 21 career starts, Webber continued, "I'm not expecting a lot.  But I think he's worth trying in some longer races.  I'm thinking 12 furlongs or so."

A third strike and she's out.

I bought the broodmare False Demon from Noble Farms for $350,000 because she looked like a perfect match for War Machine.

Both love dirt.  

FD - Prefer, Prefer, Prefer.  

WM - Prefer, Prefer, Good.

And, both can get the distance.  

FD - Handles 10F - 12F, best 12F.

WM - Handles 10F - 16F, best 16F.

Other AR characteristics led me to believe that offspring from these two would have genetics in their favor.  Unfortunately, recessive genes have taken hold of not one, but both of the foals born to this pair.

First Trebuchet, now a 1yo colt who seems to have some stamina, but is so darn picky on surfaces that he may never run.  How about this line?  Poor, Prefers, Dislikes, Dislikes, Poor.

Then Anck Su Namun.  A sprinter no less, with poor acceleration to boot.  As an added bonus she runs Dislikes, Dislikes, Good on dirt.

To say I'm disappointed would be a gross understatement.  False Demon may get another chance with War Machine, but not next breeding season.  She'll try another stud first.  If I get another anomaly out of her... she's gone!

She's mighty mighty...

Last breeding season, I was looking for a suitable stud for first-time broodmare Domino (War Machine x Sharp Cat).  Ryan Okerstrom of Spartan Racing Stables suggested Machete, and after looking him over, I decided that he was an excellent choice.

What we got went beyond all expectations.  Here is her AR:

Brick House (2014), 15.3 hand chestnut filly

By Machete out of Domino by War Machine

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.

This horse prefers hard dirt.

This horse is good on soft dirt.

This horse prefers mud.

This horse is good on hard turf.

This horse is ok on soft turf.

This horse is of average soundness.

This horse has average ratability.

This horse usually comes from midpack.

This horse has good acceleration.

This horse breaks well out of the gate.

This horse has good speed. Could set records.

This horse appears to be a sprinter.

She won't be running until 2016, but we're already excited about her prospects because,  "She's a Brick...House!"

Chomping at the bit...

One quarter of the 2014 racing season is already gone, and eight of my nine 2yo's have yet to see the track.

My patience was ebbing when I threw Deep Magic out there in a field that was bigger than I prefer.  I was rewarded with a poor trip and a disappointing finish.  Now a couple weeks later, the yearn to see what these youngsters are made of is gnawing at my resolve.

I've got 8 other dandies that are waiting in the wings and I'm not sure how much longer I can hold off, large fields or not.

Azrael (Nightwing x Affirm Gal) - Classic distance, multi-surface.  First out of Affirm Gal, this colt carries high expectations.

Captain Britain (Union Jack x Flawless) - Long distance turf.  With his talent and picture perfect AR, we think Union Jack will be a superior stud.

Kit Fisto (War Machine x In Spirit) - Long distance, multi-surface. 

Mocha Milkshake (Memcay x Gourmet Girl) - Long distance dirt.  Slow to mature.  Won't run this year.  Might consider selling this fellow for the right price.

Moondragon (Moet x Monsoon) - Finicky surface miler.  Hoping for Moet-type speed here.

Quasar (Revenge x Nova) - Dirt miler.  The planets are aligning for a superstar here.  Everything looks good.

Xtra Run (Run Missy Run x Xtra Heat) - Classic distance dirt.  Speed x speed = speed.  Has more stamina than we expected though.

You Know My Name (Union Jack x Shattered Record) - Classic distance dirt. 

Can't wait!