AR says you like distance, why aren't you cooperating?

First things first... when you go into the race files, the line of horse ratings starts like this:

Trophy,Trophy, 75 , 88 , 91 , 70 , 9730.087 , 7667.732 , 1060

Gate Speed - 75

Early speed - 88

Top Speed - 91

Stamina - 70

Kicks - 1060

I haven't any idea what the rest of the data is down the line.  I have been meaning to look into it but haven'y found the time yet.

These rating usually fall into these ranges.  They may even trend higher or lower, but I have not seen anything beyond these ranges.

Gate speed - 58 to 84

Anything below 70 is a pretty slow starter.  Numbers above 80 are very fast starters.  Obviously is is best to be a fast starter if you are a sprinter.  All the speed in the world will not help a sprinter with a 62 gate speed.  A lower gate speed is less critical for a stayer, but there are still combinations that will cripple a distance horse also.  For instance, a stayer who is an extremely slow starter that likes to run on-lead is a bad combo.  He'll kill himself trying to get the lead and wither at the end, especially if he also has poor acceleration.

Early Speed - 82 to 94

Common sense dictates that higher is better.  A horse who is a poor starter who also has poor early speed may find himself out of contention in the first furlong.  Optimally, sprinters will be over 90 here, preferably 92 or higher. I have seen successful distance horses with an 85 in this spot, although 86 or 87 is more typical.

Top Speed - 84 to 94

Same as Early Speed, but more important because the horse will presumably use this rating for a greater percentage of the race.  Top sprinters will check in at 93 or 94, Milers 91 or 92, Classics around 89 or 90, and Stayers at 87 to 88.  Of course there are always exceptions to these rules based on the other attributes the horse does or does not possess.  For instance, Ton of Luck was very successful as a miler with numbers of 80, 90, 90, 69, 1035.  Because of his exceptional kick rating, he was able to compete against and beat slightly faster horses.

Stamina - 64 to 75

Generally speaking:

64-66  SPRINTER

67-69  MILER

70-71  CLASSIC

72-75  DISTANCE

As I said in an article in my blog many moons ago, these ratings are the first step in determining your horses distance ability.  Depending on the aggregate effect of all of their basic and miscellaneous ratings, horses can and do thrive in categories one step removed in each direction.  Going beyond that is virtually impossible.  For instance, a horse with a 65 stamina is not going to compete in Classic races.  Ever.

Kick - 400 to 1250

In my opinion, this rating determines the horses staying power at the end of a race.  The higher this number is, the better, regardless if you are a sprinter, stayer, or anywhere in between.  An abnormally low kick rating, say under 500, is an extreme liability.

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All of these numbers can vary a little bit from race to race depending on rest and other factors.  But, they are generally fairly static once a horse reaches maturity.  Do not expect a 4yo horse that has been tracking with a 67 stamina to suddenly improve to a 70.  It will not happen.

Determining what kind of horse you have on your hands can take time.  By looking at race files by the hundreds you will start to get the flavor of what makes some horses great and others horrible.  

At his peak, when War Machine won the Dubai World Cup in 2006, his numbers were 75, 89, 91, 71, 975.  This is a horse who had the speed of a miler and the stamina of a stayer... little wonder why he blew away his competition in 2006.

A giant among sprinters was Run MIssy Run.  When he won the 2010 Breeders Cup Sprint, his numbers were 76, 93, 94, 67, 900.  Loads of speed and a finishing kick that said adios to competitors at the wire were the reasons that he was so dominating.

It doesn't take a genius to see why these horses were titans in their day.  For most horses though, you have to consider a little more deeply and combine that with the info you can glean from the AR.  In this way you can make a reasonable assessment of the horses abilities, liabilities, and prospects.

In his second race as a 2yo, Battlestar had numbers of 78, 89, 90, 71, 1001.  I knew at that moment, by looking at this immature horse with those colossal numbers, that I had a monster on my hands.  I had to temper my expectations a bit because of his surface pickiness, but I knew he was destined for great achievements.  He rewarded my patience by winning the World Cup this year. 

I'm sure any of you could have ascertained that Battlestar was worth keeping.  That is not the point.  The point is that you should be analyzing your own horses and their strengths and weaknesses.  By doing this, you will stop trying to drive a square peg into a round hole like I have seen happen so many times.

There was a 6F race for 2yo's this weekend and I took a look at the top four finishers out of curiosity.  Here is how they stacked up in order if finish:

Shadowfax  74, 90, 90, 68, 835

Categorise  74, 91, 93, 66, 493

Commando ACOG  72, 89, 89, 70, 684

Mogul  76, 91, 92, 66, 443

What I envision here is that Shadowfax and Commando ACOG are not gonna be sprinters.  They did well in this race because they have stamina and kick ratings that are on the high side for 2yo horses. Their stamina and kick rating are not going to go down and their speed is not going to rise appreciably; meaning that after age 2, they are not gonna have a lot of success at the sprinting game.

Conversely, Categorise and Mogul are sprinters and they will remain sprinters.  Their speed ratings are very high for young horses and they may yet improve a notch or two, and that means that their stamina ratings are destined to stay in the sprinter, possibly miler range.

The reason I know this, is that the total of the top speed and stamina rating will usually not exceed 161.  It has happened on occasion, temporarily, when all of the stars line up perfectly for a horse in a given race.  But 161 is the theoretical combined limit of these two ratings.  So, if Mogul increases his speed at maturity to 94, the highest his stamina will see is 67.  Get it?  He is a sprinter.  Hopefully, his kick will get a little higher or he will be a sprinter who is limited to 6 furlongs.

OK... That is a crash course.  Use this info as you will.  If you have any questions.  Let me know.

Kick - The Misunderstood Stat?

I had a conversation with Chris Campbell of Smokey's Stable today and it prompted me to publish this article, which is basically just a reiteration of the emails we exchanged.

Gate Speed, Early Speed, Top Speed, and Stamina are all easy to comprehend, but that Kick rating seems to confound people and there are even differences of opinion as to it's effect and worth.

Some people do not give the Kick rating much credence, but I think it is very important, and the higher the number, the better.

The distance line on the old AR's was originally determined by using the kick number.  So, if you had a horse with a kick of 1000, it would show up as liking a lot of distance, even though the stamina number may have only been 67, which is more indicative of a sprinter.

My horse, French Twist is a perfect example.  He has a high kick of 1068, but his stamina of 67 limits him to being a miler at best, regardless of the fact that his AR says he like distance.  No way he could make even 9-10 furlongs competitively.

I like a high kick though, even in a sprinter/miler, and I try to breed for it.  A high number lessens the possibility that they will run out of gas in the last furlong.  I have seen horses who have great speed numbers, but because they are handicapped by a minuscule kick rating, they can't make more than 5F, even though they may have an adequate stamina rating.  I've had mature horses that have had Kick ratings under 500 and they have all been unable to compete above 5F.

Methy Bus has a great stamina of 73, so you'd think he might make 16F comfortably.  He can't because his kick is only 742.  In fact, he seems to top out at about 12F.  Astrapios has a 72 stamina, but he can run sub-3:19 at 16F because his kick is up in the 1150 range.

It's really not complicated... whether you are a sprinter or a stayer, the higher the number, the better.  So... don't make it more difficult than it is.  

How much is too much?

Everyone has there own opinion on how much a horse might be worth and a lot of factors go into each person's opinion.

How much racing potential does the horse have?  If it's an older racer, is there still gas in the tank?  Do I think a seemingly mediocre horse has just been mismanaged and I can turn it around?  Maybe it's a proven winner who is on the downslide but I want to add him to my stable as a source of prestige?

It may be a needed stallion or broodmare candidate, or perhaps it is just the offspring of a stallion or mare that I admire.  Maybe I just like the name...

The point is, how I perceive the value may differ vastly from how another stable owner feels.

When Pointgiven Stables paid $6,000,000 for Gradient, I thought the man had lost his mind.  However, it turned out to be a tremendously shrewd investment.  

We've all seen bad deals go down.  Glenmore Park paid $5,510,000 for the stallion Imperiosso, an above average racer who won the 2014 Dubai World Cup, but otherwise had a fairly checkered racing career. Bought for that exorbitant price strictly as a breeder, Imperiosso, who has not sired a foal since 2016, now resides at Endless Vista, having generated virtually zero in breeding fees for Glenmore Park.

Showing that turnabout is fair play, our friends at Glenmore Park got the better end of a deal two years later when yours truly at Otsego Farms paid $4,000,000 for the filly Xtra Gold.  I thought Xtra Gold had a couple more big seasons of racing in her, but that proved to be incorrect.  She was hit-and-miss, winning just $350,000 in her only season of racing at Otsego Farms.  Hopefully, she will pan out as a broodmare so I can recoup the large investment I made.  It is possible that some of you may think that $4M is not too much to pay for a broodmare with her potential. You see?  We all see things differently.  My best mare is In Spirit.  She produces winners and she cost me a reasonable $400,000.  So yes, I think I overspent on Xtra Gold.

I have shaken my head in admiration and in disbelief at some of the deals I've seen over the years.  No matter how educated we all  get... there will always be purchases and sales that defy our own perception of logic;  because we all see things differently, don't we?

On The Prowl is on the move

The 2yo colt Lapsus caught my eye recently.  After performing the appropriate due diligence, I decided that I wanted to own him.

The only problem was that he was owned by Ettore at the Italian stable Olmo Dorato. Ettore is very reasonable, but being the owner of the largest stable in the Photo Finish universe, he obviously doesn't need my money.  A trade for breeding stock was what he had in mind.  He was interested in broodmares Xtra Gold and On The Prowl.  

I bought Xtra Gold from Glenmore Park for $4M in an attempt to bull my way into the sprinting game.  I have way too much invested in this mare to let her go, so she was off the table.

On The Prowl was something I was willing to discuss because she is 13 years old now and has a more limited breeding window than 5yo Xtra Gold.  On the other hand, she was a horse I coveted for a long time, before my good friend Chris Campbell at Smokey's Stable traded her to me for broodmare Shattered Record.  I was loathe to give her up.

With the high prices that good mares are commanding these days, I didn't think it made sense to trade On The Prowl for an untested 2yo, even-up.  I countered to Ettore; asking for $750k and Lapsus, half hoping that he would turn me down... but he took the deal.

Lapsus is a talented classic-type runner in the mold of Methy Bus, at least that is how I see it.  I hope I'm right, because On The Prowl is a helluva nice mare and I'll miss having her in the breeding shed.

They told me..."I got the stamina. I can close." I believed them.

I've been trying to tweak my lineup of broodmares over the past couple of years because I have a need for more true distance mares. They have proven elusive, but I made a couple of acquisitions recently that will temper that need somewhat.

It's true that my two new girls are not marquee broodmares like Dancing Delaware or Domitila, but they have strengths that may bring out the best in Otsego stallions such as Refractor, Union Jack, Alphabet, and Nightwing.  They have stamina.  Lots of it... and at levels that are rare for mares.

Blank KD, a 3yo who was languishing at Endless Vista, has a 73 stamina rating and a lofty kick of 1250, which is the highest kick rating I have ever seen.  She had a terrible record on the track in her first 8 races with a plethora of last or near-last place finishes.  The reason?  She is slow and the races she entered were way too short.  I must admit that I was concerned when I entered her at 12F in her Otsego Farms debut and she still finished last.  But I concluded that even that was too short for her.  I was vindicated by her last race when she put up a 100 PSR at 16F and had plenty of strength left at the finish.

I've had four-year-old Dream d' Oro in my sights for a couple seasons.  She has had a somewhat better racing career than Blank KD up to this point, but my interest in her was as a broodmare.  With 71 stamina and 1086 kick, a very long projected career, and surface PREFER's on everything, she will be perfect match for my stallions.  She also had a mediocre Otsego debut at 12F, before showing her true colors with a 3rd place finish at 16F with a sparkling 102 PSR.

Whether I retire them both at the end of this season, or run them for another year depends on how they perform on the track.  But as I said, I didn't buy them for their racing skill.  I bought them for their stamina.

Shot by my own gun...

I have been one of many people who have been vocal over the years concerning inappropriate entries in big races.  In some races, systems have been instituted to prevent this problem.  Now I find myself affected by these very restrictions that I endorsed, and I'm understanding, but not happy.

I'd like to enter Jackhammer in the Kentucky Derby.  But, despite his 7-3-0-1 record and recent win of the GR1 Melbourne Cup, he does not qualify.  It's completely my own fault, of course.  I hadn't really thought of him as a Derby contender, so I didn't pay particular attention to his schedule in that regard, and hence he has zero points towards qualification.

Tragically, this is a race he could win.  He prefers hard dirt and has HRF numbers that are across-the-board identical to Derby favorite Olympia, except that Jackhammer has a better kick.

So, he will take a different road.  Perhaps entering the Derby Italiano against stable mate Le Chiffre.  I will say this though, if Olympia wins both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, he will have to earn the Triple Crown by beating Jackhammer in the Belmont.

Two year old spotlight

Based on AR info alone, filly Simply Charming is the 2yo that I would have predicted for early success this year.  After all, she matures quickly and projects to be a miler, hence she would have some early opportunities.  But opportunities alone do not guarantee success.  Fortunately, she was blessed with some ability as well.

She has prefer x 3 on dirt surfaces, and no apparent weaknesses in her resume'.  She did win her first race with numbers of 76, 90, 91, 67, 448; good speed for a debut race, and with an expected improvement in stamina and kick, she may have a future that holds promise.

Outside of Simply Charming, the two new Otsego racers that are consensus picks by our training staff are the colts Helikaon and Makes Me Wonder.

Helikaon (War Machine x In Spirit) is a dual surface distance horse.  In training, he is showing very good speed, and above average acceleration.  Plus, he is out of our most successful mare, In Spirit, who has produced Crossbones, Crackerjack, and most notably, recent World Cup winner Battlestar.

Makes Me Wonder (Nightwing x Affirm Gal) is also capable of running on dirt or turf equally well.  He doesn't have the speed of Helikaon, but is extremely strong and will probably be running longer distances. He is a chip off the old block, with his sires penchant for dramatic, come from behind finishes.

When asked what 2yo he had highest hopes for, Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber wasted no time and no extra words in saying, "Kid Shelleen."

Asked why, he snapped, "I like his name."

On heels of Dubai win, Otsego brings home Melbourne Cup

Jackhammer, the 3yo colt by Union Jack, out of Baby Greyhound, nipped Spartan's 4yo Trickster by a nose to win the 16F Melbourne Cup.

Becoming the first 3yo to win this race since Promised Land in 2004, Jackhammer lead wire-to-wire in a dominating performance, fulfilling the prediction Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber made just a week before when he said, "I'm not sure at this point who else will enter, but you can mark Jackhammer down as your winner, regardless."

It was just three years ago that Refractor, another Otsego horse, won this race.  Refractor currently resides as a stallion at Otsego Farms Stud.

"It was an extremely satisfying win.  We've had lofty expectations for Jackhammer and have been bringing him along slowly up until this point.  Obviously, he'll be in all the big distance races from now on", Webber said as he made his way over to the luxury box occupied by Trickster's connections from Spartan Racing.

"Excuse me, I have to go offer my condolences to Ryan..."