Very peculiar, I must say...

A horse's base ratings are fluid.  For example, factors such as rest (or lack thereof) can affect them in the short run.  So I don't generally panic when they do so.

But... for the third straight week, I have had a horse come up with a lower than expected number in a big race, for no discernible reason.  Two weeks ago it was Le Chiffre, last week it was Rico Suave, and this week, in the Kentucky Derby no less, it was Tag You're It.

I really can't make heads or tails of it any more.  They are all in their AR-reputed prime and well-rested, yet out of the blue, the HRF game arbitrarily sticks it to them.  In the Kentucky Derby, Tag was the 7-2 favorite for Heavens sake, but if I had seen what his numbers were at post time, I would have picked him to finish in last place.

What's even more odd, is that my prognostications in the KYD seemed to have a derogatory affect on other horses as well.  For example:

1. Thought Fear This was a "massive threat" to win this race.  His numbers declined.
2. Said Highland Games was "well-rested and dangerous".  His numbers declined.
3. Preferred Regal Sweep to Thousand Slew and defended the opinion in this forum.  His numbers declined.
4. And of course I mentioned Tag You're It as "one of the strongest horses in the race".  His numbers declined.

It can work the other way too.  I said that Highway to Hell "just won't have the tools to get back into the race".  His numbers went up and he finished like gangbusters to come in 3rd.

Pretty much every horse I said something good about had a numerical and performance setback, while pretty much every horse I had misgivings about performed better than I expected.

Haha... I think I'm out of the prediction business until further notice.

Please take note...

I have noticed that a couple of you have posted your comment twice because it looked like it didn't show up on the blog.  You don't need to do that.

I installed comment moderation a while ago because some knucklehead was posting derogatory comments.  That means that I have to OK the comment before it goes on-line.  Sometimes it takes a bit for me to get the notification and approve the comment, so you don't need to bother to re-posting it.  I'll get to it.

I'll approve everything, even if you disagree with me, as long as the comment is constructive and not simply spiteful.

2020 Kentucky Derby Preview

A field of 15 colts will contend for the 2020 Kentucky Derby.  With the broadest of definitions, these horses can be broken down as follows:

Speed Horses:

Mass Money

Spanish Gigolo

Scalpel

Stamina Horses:

Ben Nevis

Highway to Hell

Prince Phillip 

Tag You're It

Highland Games

Mr Gardiner

Fear This

Horses that may have weight issues:

Mass Money

Prince Phillip

Ruger

Sweet Consort 

Thousand Slew

Mr Gardiner

Horses that may have rest issues:

Ben Nevis

Elementary

Mass Money

Spanish Gigolo

Sweet Consort

Speed horses are in short supply this year, with only three that have top speed values above 90.  Of he three, Mass Money is most suitable at 10F, but Spanish Gigolo, and Scalpel can probably make the distance, with Scalpel being the more likely to falter in the last furlong.

Stamina horses abound in 2020.  No less than seven have stamina ratings of 72 or higher, with Prince Phillip topping the list with a lofty 74.  The Prince may be better suited for the 12F Belmont in my opinion though, as I don't think a 74 has ever won the Kentucky Derby.  

Six horses may have difficulty with the expected 126lb weight.  Ruger and Sweet Consort will be the most adversely affected.

There are five horses who ran traditional, but late Derby prep races.  They will be hampered by short rest before the big race, especially if they continue on to the Preakness two weeks afterwards.

So... who will win?  Let's start with who won't.  

Mass Money and Sweet Consort are the only two horses who show up on the Weight Concern list AND the Rest Concern list.  Therefore, I think it is safe to assume that neither will contend in this race.

Ruger has solid but unspectacular numbers, with the exception of a sky-high kick rating.  He also has failed to find the winners circle in six career starts.  He did well, finishing 2nd in the Florida Derby carrying a light 115lbs.  With 126lbs on his back in the Derby however, he'll be sluggish and a non-factor.

Speaking of solid but unspectacular... Elementary also fits that bill.  He's strong and can carry some weight, but his other attributes are just not good enough to win this race.

That leaves eleven horses and I think that any of them could win under the right circumstances.  

Scalpel is a speedy horse that aquitted himself well in the UAE Derby against mediocre competition. He will find the higher calibre of talent in his race to be more of a challenge.  He should lead the way with his superior early and top speed, but when the chips are on the line in the last furlong or two, he will probably give way. 

Spanish Gigolo is very similar, talent-wise, to Scalpel, but with a bit more staying power.  He won the Toyota Blue Grass, but did so against a buch of nobodies.  His Achilles Heel will be lack of rest. He's sketchy at 10F to begin with, and with a scant 18 days of rest... hasta la vista baby.

Thousand Slew and Regal Sweep are also a similarly equipped pair.  These two have a lethal combination of speed and stamina which translates almost perfectly at this distance.  Of the two, I like Regal Sweep a little better because he has a better kick rating, can carry more weight, and has more rest.

Continuing the pairing-up scheme, Ben Nevis and Highway to Hell line up very nicely.  Frankly, I think these two are the least likely to win this race out of the eleven that I said had a chance.  They are not among the fastest or the strongest, which probably relegates them to the middle of he pack. Highway to Hell is very slow out of the gate, and just won't have the tools to get back into the race. Ben Nevis does not have the slow gate speed to worry about, but does have the added burden of insufficient rest.

Fear This is a bit of a wildcard with just a single start in his career... but it was a stunning debut.  He beat speed horse Mass Money at the Gallery.com and did it easily.  This horse is a massive threat to win this race.

Highland Games had a poor showing his last time out in the Dubai World Cup, but that can be explained by the decision to send him with only 18 days off.  Now well-rested, he will be dangerous.

Mr Gardiner was super in the UAE Derby, posting a 1:58.70 and finishing in 2nd behind Derby no-show, Power Genius.  That time shows what he is capable of, and he was carrying 126lbs when he did it.  A legit chance to win.

One of the strongest horses in the race, as measured by kick, stamina, and weight-carrying ability, Tag You're It is a slow starter who finishes fast.  If he can stay close to the action, he will definitely be a factor.

Prince Phillip is an 87/74 beast who has the ability to win races like this based strictly on his overwhelming stamina.  He has a nice kick number as well, and those things combined to let him score a 3:16.85 at 16F earlier this year.  I have very slight concerns with regard to his ability to carry 126lbs and the fact that he will be working on a little over 3 weeks of rest.

PREDICTION:

I really had a hard time separating the last five horses because they are all actually very close in raw ability.

I will drop Fear This just because his track record is so brief.  That being said, his debut was marvelous and if does hit the board, it wouldn't surprise me at all.

Prince Phillip will also get eliminated because of the minor concerns I have plus the fact that an 87/74 has never won this race.

That leaves Highland Games, Mr Gardiner, and Tag You're It.  

WIN: Tag You're It

PLACE: Highland Games

SHOW: Mr Gardiner