The best laid schemes of mice and men...

...go often askew.

I bought the 12yo mare Fox with the best of intentions.  In fact, I kinda stole her from another suitor with a last minute bid at auction.  I felt pretty good about that at the time because I've always liked her and I thought she would fit in nicely as a broodmare at Otsego Farms. 

I'm not feeling so good about it any more and it's not because I don't like Fox, because I still admire her as much as ever. 

My plan is to have 10 broodmares.  When Arctic Fox retires after this season, she'll make number ten.  However...my opinion regarding Domino has changed dramatically and now I'm very seriously considering keeping her as a broodmare.  If that happens, Fox will have to go.

I originally thought Domino was strictly a sprinter, and as a potential broodmare, only fit to produce more sprinters.  However, now I know that whatever she can or cannot do on the track, she has the bloodlines to produce classic racers and the stats that back it up.

So...I'm leaning that way at the moment.  Keep Domino, sell Fox.  We'll see which way the wind blows in the last third of the season...

Storyline for Weeks 33-34

We've got four horses being sent out this week, which makes it one of our bigger offerings for the season.  

With just 12 racers and our propensity to give approximately 40 days of rest, four entries is about the most we can expect in any given week.

2yo filly Nebula will run in the 6.5F Adirondack Stakes.  It will be her third career race and the longest distance thus far.  She has finished 3rd in both previous starts. 

Another 2yo, colt War Hammer will make his racing debut, also at 6.5F as mentioned in the story below.  It will be a small 5-horse field which is very agreeable to the connections at Otsego Farms.

After a six-week layoff, 4yo Sabretooth will drop down to 8F at the Evangeline Downs Mile Handicap.  He will be trying for his first victory in what has been a disappointing season.  

And finally, 4yo mare Domino will stretch to 9F in the Emerald Distaff.  She has raced primarily at 6F or less in her career thus far.  Our trainers suspect that with maturity, Domino has strengthened to the point where 9+ furlongs may be within her ability.

A big week for Otsego Farms.  We have a 2yo looking to make the next step, a valued 2yo making his first race, a veteran racer trying to prove he still has value, and a mare attempting a distance that she may not even suspect she is capable of.  Should be interesting, huh Kemosabe?

War Hammer to debut?

A colt that is highly-touted within Otsego Farms will attempt to make his debut this weekend at the GR2 Saratoga Special.

War Hammer, the hulking 17h colt by War Machine out of Shattered Record, is currently entered, but as always, owner Jim Webber reserves the right to pull him at the last moment.  

"I tend to coddle my 2yo's, no question about that.  I'm not one to send them out 12 times in 20 horse fields.  I prefer 6-8 starts maximum in the smallest fields possible", Webber stated.  "I've had War Hammer entered a couple times already and yanked him when the fields got unwieldy.  I'm not gonna send him out to get jostled around in his first race."

The Saratoga is a 6.5F affair on dirt.  Webber said, "I'd prefer a slightly longer race for his debut, but he's ready to go so we'll see what happens."

Like NPR. Love this song...

It was written in a weekend as part of a songwriting contest on NPR.  Very, very catchy.

Last chance for Tombstone.

Tombstone will forge his own destiny this weekend.  He's racing in the $50,000 Norton Shores Stakes at Pinnacle Race Course in Michigan and how he does will determine where his future lies.

The 4yo by Vampirical out of Shadowcat has been a stable favorite, but business is business, and he'll most likely make way for fresher talent if he cannot hit the board in this race.

"This is the nicest dang horse you'll ever meet.  I've never seen one with a sweeter disposition", Otsego owner Jim Webber confided as he leaned over the rail watching Tombstone on a morning breeze.  "It'd be a shame to see him go, but we're just not satisfied with what he's done on the track."

"It's a soft field so I certainly think he can contend for the win, but I'd be satisfied to see him on the board", Webber said  with a wistful smile.

Upon closer inspection....

I've been looking at a lot of horse stats lately and even though I haven't put a lot of effort into figuring out what all of the data means, I have learned a great deal from just the easiest recognizable numbers; break speed, early speed, top speed, and stamina.

I could only shake my head this evening, seeing race after race where a horse was obviously misplaced.  For example, there was a 6F sprint with a stayer who starts slowly and has mediocre speed. Looking at the data, it was painfully obvious that the horse did not have a chance.  He was entered in the wrong race and the results were just what I expected.

Not all of the races were easy to predict.  I made a game of it and tried to pick the winner by looking at the data first.  Not easy.  I was wrong more often than not.  But it was easy to pick the horses that were gonna lose... a horse with a speed figure of 88, in a sprint with a bunch of 92's and 93's for example, or a horse with a stamina of 66 in a 10F race against horses with 70 or 71 ratings.  Those weren't hard to figure out.

Better understanding your horses capabilities and limits will help with race placement.  It's easy with a horse like Heat Seeker; just put him in every big money race you can.  He'll be fine.  For most horses though, placement is more critical, and if you don't understand your horse, it's not gonna be fun.

The more horses I looked at, the more I began to get excited about the possibilities.  It seemed so refreshing to be armed with some small bits of data that support a specific race strategy, rather than the usual head-scratching bewilderment.

I'm telling you people...the info is certainly not foolproof, but it is valuable.  Very valuable.

Fun Video #8

This just never gets old.  Funniest thing ever.

Crossbones looks in mirror...sees Nightwing.

Two year old colt Crossbones started off slow, came on strong, and got nipped at the wire.

That exact scenario was endured a dozen times by his sire Nightwing, who had a marked propensity for slow starts and lackadaisical finishes.  Crossbones ran a nice race, but just didn't maintain concentration at the finish, getting edged by the filly Bravy's Lass.

Another 2yo, filly House of M also finished 2nd this week.  She was frightfully blocked, but had enough strength to roar out of the crowd to hit the board, 9 lengths behind Golden Acres' Character.

These encouraging showings, plus the positive races by the 2yo filly Nebula, have given us some hope for the rest of the year and next season.  Our fourth 2yo, War Hammer, has yet to make his racing debut.

The other two racers this week, Shatterstar and Ultron, both disappointed with off the board finishes.

Hope this won't cause a problem....

Since I wholeheartedly agree that all horse data should be made accessible to all...

On the Photo Finish website, go to:

1. RACING
2. RESULTS
3. DOWNLOAD CURRENT RESULTS
4. Pick race your horse is in and right-click
5. Open file on Excel spreadsheet if possible

The spreadsheet displays the data.  I'm still in the process of identifying all data, but the first four columns are:

• break speed
• early speed
• top speed
• long stamina

Here are some results from a randomly opened race:

Bourbon 73-93-94-68

Prince Majestic 82-90-90-72

Imagination 83-89-90-68

Lord of War 76-87-88-69

Midnite Brilliance 76-90-93-68

Typical Conflict 78-91-92-67

Eminem 78-89-90-69

Argument 68-94-94-66

I'm not familiar with any of these horses except for Eminem, but it looks like you can glean the following from this limited amount of data...

Argument is very fast, but it looks like he has limited stamina and is a very slow starter.

Prince Majestic evidently has alot more stamina than his owner suspects.

Imagination looks to be a very fast starter.  I'd race him in the shortest races possible.

Lord of War is not terribly fast, which is probably very bad unless you have 71+ stamina

Bon appetit!

Fairy tales can come true. It can happen to you....

Up until recently, I had not thought of Domino as a broodmare candidate.  She just didn't seem to have the lung strength that I prefer.  But new information has made me reconsider her future.

Her AR, which was probably written by the Brothers Grimm, stipulates plainly that she is a sprinter.  Given her parentage of War Machine x Sharp Cat that did not seem likely, but who am I to question what is written so resolutely in black and white?  Therefore, she has been running, with mediocrity, at around 6 furlongs.

Imagine my surprise when I discover that as a 3yo, she has a top speed / long stamina combo of 92/70?  That my friends is the same score that Smart Money had on the day he ran the Kentucky Derby in 2006.

I am not suggesting that Domino is as good as Smart Money.  That would be absurd.  I am suggesting however, that Domino is probably not a sprinter and I feel somewhat cheated that I am finding this out only now, at the end of her career.

War Machine was 92/71 when he won the Kentucky Derby.  Domino was 92/70.  This is a sprinter?  It's my own fault for believing that fool AR...I ate the poisoned apple.  But, if I had the correct information from the start, this kind of thing wouldn't happen.

I've been proposing that all foals are delivered with the full HRF data sheet.  Obviously, it should be confidential; share it or not at your discretion.  But for Heaven's sake, lets get the info out there so we don't waste racing careers trying to fit square pegs into round holes.

Anyway, after seeing that Domino has more steam than I ever suspected, I'm seriously considering keeping her on as a breeder.  Given my current stall allotment, that would mean another mare may have to be sold.

Maybe I'll have to go with eleven broodmares and cut my racers down to just 5 or 6.  One thing is for certain though.  I have a new found respect for Domino and I'm darn sorry I sold her short for the past few years.  Who knows how many of you have done the same thing?  

All because of a lack of simple information.  Kind of a shame, isn't it?

Fun Video #7

Rocky Balboa.  Need I say more?

What? You sold who?

As predicted, three year old fillies Starfire and Titanium were both sold this week and even I am surprised that I pulled the trigger on these sales as both fillies had very high expectations.

Titanium was purchased at auction for $750,000 from Rivendell.  She was highly regarded in our camp because her sire was Dubai Gold.  We had hoped for a miler/classic type, but as we worked with her it was obvious that she was a sprinter.  Unfortunately, in her stint at Otsego Farms she did not exhibit the necessary speed to compete.  The Raja Stables bought her for $5000. 

Starfire was bred by Otsego Farms; a full sister to Shatterstar.   We really feel that this filly has some talent, but we have been unable to tap it.  Sunset Ranch purchased her for $50,000 with the intention of using her as a broodmare in the future.

With stalls being at a premium at this time, and the season being half over, it was necessary to begin the culling process.  We still need to move 3-4 more horses before the end of the year so eyebrows at Otsego Farms may be raised again in the very near future.

Fillies face fallout from failures.

Arctic Fox - 6yo

Her talent is undeniable and her AR leads me to believe she'll be a good broodmare.  I bought her at the beginning of this season and she has already paid for herself with winnings.  Verdict:  IN

Domino - 4yo

Because she is a sprinter, she'll probably not stay on as a broodmare at Otsego Farms.  Her racing skill is getting marginally better, but she just doesn't have the raw talent for higher graded races.  Verdict:  OUT?

Starfire - 3yo

Has shown flashes of talent, but we have not been able to coax any sort of consistency from her, let alone a win.  She has hit the board in 50% of her races, so she is capable of winning enough cash to pay her way, but as I said in a previous post; mediocrity will not be tolerated.  Verdict:  OUT

Huntress - 3yo

Won her first race and hasn't come close since.  I cannot figure her out.  Is she a sprinter, a miler, or does she indeed have classic distance ability as hinted by her AR?  Because she has a win, her leash is a bit longer.  Verdict: IN for now.

Titanium - 3yo

Has not shown why she deserves a stall.  Verdict:  OUT

House of M - 2yo

Put up an 85 PSR in her debut and has given us some hope for her future.  Verdict:  IN

Nebula - 2yo

Finished in 3rd in both of her races with solid PSR's of 81 and 94.  We're feeling very good about Nebula at the moment.  Verdict:  IN

We've got some interesting fillies on the way up next year.  Miler Moondragon is by Moet out of Monsoon.  Xtra Run runs classic distances and is by Run Missy Run out of Xtra Heat.  And, You Know My Name, who is by Union Jack out of Shattered Record will also run at classic distances.  Hopefully these girls can have some success next season.

Guilty as charged!

Why do I always find myself in the middle of some kind of controversy?

The forum thread that began as a synopsis of weeks 23-24 morphed into a discussion on how Gradient won the Belmont so easily.  Then deliberation began on how close or far Photo Finish was from horse racing reality.  And finally, it reached it's climax with me defending the travel schedule of War Machine during his Triple Crown winning 2006 racing season.

In the thread, I merely said I was amazed at the way Gradient came from so far back, on a track he hated, to win.  I said his comeback was improbable and that was certainly how things looked at the 7-8 furlong mark while I was watching it.  None of that is an indictment against Gradient.  I love the horse.

But somehow, my comments spurred an investigation into War Machine's history and the conclusion reached was that his entire 3yo season was improbable.

Yeah, maybe it was.  Almost everything in Photo Finish is improbable.  That's why I like to suggest rules changes like travel restrictions, rest mandates, and a host of other things.  I'd like things to be more realistic.  But that's just me.  Others, many others, like things just the way they are.

OK.  I'm ready to move on.  As long as no one brings up Nightwing's race history in 2003, I'll let this whole topic go.....for now.

Otsego picks up 4yo Desert Find

Desert Find, the 4yo colt by Dubai Millennium out of Skyfinder has been purchased by Otsego Farms for $1000.

"I was quite surprised to see a colt of quality on the sales page for this kind of price", Otsego owner Jim Webber commented. 

Desert Find has a current record of 7-0-0-2 with earnings of $56,000.  He has some potential though, as witnessed by his speed numbers of 83, 99, 99, 89 in his last 4 races.

"Stonewall has a reputation for breeding and patience.  As you can see, this 4yo only has 7 career races.  I'm not sure why Bill gave up on him at this point, but when I see a horse for sale with the name Stonewall next to it, I immediately take notice", Webber said as he supervised the loading of Desert Find for the trip to Otsego.

Obviously in reference to a certain topic that currently rages in the forum, Webber continued with a wink, "We've got quite a schedule in mind for this boy.  He'll be racing in Tokyo on Monday, Melbourne on Wednesday, Los Angeles on Friday, and New York on Saturday".