Strategy change for 2015

Now that 2014 is finished, I've been looking over the data to see how I've mismanaged my horses.

Sometimes a horse performs well at a specific distance and you fall into a rut.  You just keep rolling him out there figuring, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.  The problem is, there is a possibility that he may perform even better at a different distance, but we'll never know if we aren't willing to experiment a bit.

Consider Methy Bus.  Looking at his record, you've got to concede that he's a pretty fast horse.  Ten out of his 16 career races have exceeded 100 PSR.  Fast, right?

Wrong.  He's not particularly fast.  His success is rooted in his outstanding stamina.

His recent stats check in as BREAK SPEED 71, EARLY SPEED 86, TOP SPEED 88, STAMINA 73.

He's a rather slowish starter with average speed...period.  Nothing special there.  Where he excels though is that gaudy, diamond-tipped, razor-sharp, gold-plated 73 for stamina.  That my friends, is how this fellow pays the bills.  As long as the race isn't too short, Methy Bus will usually run down the horses that are starting to lather and blow.

Back to my original point though.  He's gonna run in longer races next year. 

Methy Bus was efficiently and successfully managed by Chris over at Smokey's Stable.  No doubt about that.  And I just followed suit for the past couple of races with middling results.  But now that I've had a chance to think about it, I'm convinced that he'll do even better with a little more distance.

In his longest races, he has tried twice at 10F.  The first was the Cox Plate and he was the favorite at 9/4.  He finished 3rd in a lackluster performance.  His next race was the Kentucky Derby, also at 10F but this time on dirt, which is his less preferred surface.  Again, he was well received by the oddsmakers with a 9/1 line and there were only 4 horses that had better odds.  He obviously disliked the going, finishing 18th.

So, those two disappointing races don't exactly support my hypothesis, do they?  Even so, two things are beyond contestation in my opinion: 

1. A top speed of 88 is really too low to go against Milers.
2. A stamina rating of 73 should equate to success at 12+ furlongs.

Therefore, Methy Bus will try his luck at much longer races next season.

 A sample of recent festivities in celebration of another successful season at Photo-Finish.  Pictured here in the 1st Annual 1F Sprint Handicap In Drag, are (from left) Steven from Golden Acres, Ryan from Spartan Stables, Jim from Otsego Farms, Jim from Hutton's Horse Haven, Josh from JD Kayll Racing, and Chris from Cold Steel.

Be fruitful, and multiply.

The 2014 season marked a milestone for Otsego Farms.  For the first time, it was a season that showcased a talented and potentially explosive group of 2yo's. 

Nova - Otsego Farms first homebred

Prior to 2012, my breeding operation was very limited.  In fact, in the 7 years from 2005 through 2011, I bred a total of 18 foals; an average of just 2.5 per year.  Coincidentally, I had very limited success with homebreds during this period.  Nova was a bright spot and Shatterstar was and still is serviceable.  Sabretooth also showed some ability, but won just 3 races in his career.  Other than those, it was a motley crew of washouts.

I often wondered why was my racing success was so limited with my homebred's early on.  Breeding-wise, I was just as careful during my early years as I am now. I look for appropriate pairings and mares with ability; never using a mare just because she's a mare. I breed strength to strength and try to cover weaknesses when possible.

Perhaps, I thought, it is just a numbers game.  Produce more foals with quality breeding and the odds are better that some good ones will pop up.  After getting some advice, I decided to gear up my breeding operation.

My current group of 2yo's was born in 2012 and was the first batch of the enhanced breeding strategy suggested by Steven of Golden Acres and Foxie of Foxies Lodge.   During the period of 2012 through 2015, I will have bred 36 foals; an average of 9.0 per year.  My first larger group has produced a boatload of talent...

Azrael 4-1-1-0.  Son of Nightwing has lungs.

Captain Britain 3-1-0-1.  Union Jack sired.  Loves turf and distance.

Deep Magic  4-0-2-0.  By War Machine and maturing nicely.

Kit Fisto 4-0-2-0.  Another War Machine product who can make the distance.

Moondragon 4-1-0-0.  Moet filly won debut and has some speed.

You Know My Name 4-2-0-0.  Filly by Union Jack who is gonna be a handful.

Every one of these horses has potential and I'm very excited to have them all running as 3yo's next year.  Additionally, my batch of upcoming 2yo's for the 2015 racing season looks stronger on paper than this group.

Results for Weeks 47-48

It was a pretty good week, with all five racers hitting the board.

Nebula won her second straight race at 6F.  It looks like her new pet distance, which shouldn't be a surprise since her dam Nova excelled at 6F.  Her AR and HRF stats hint at longer distances, but it looks like she may stick at sprints for awhile.  You can argue with success.

Deep Magic finished his season with a second consecutive 2nd place finish.  He showed a strong kick, even at 7F, which was his longest race of the year.  Looks like he'll be a miler as suspected.  His slowish starts are a bit of a concern, but 8F should be long enough to alleviate the poor starts.

Crossbones rebounded nicely from his last place finish in the Indiana Derby to finish 3rd in the Hollywood Derby.  He had a bad trip and didn't get any real running room until the last furlong.  He finished with a flourish and I feel he would have won had his trip been smoother.

Necromancer performed very well again.  He grabbed a 2nd place at 7.5F.  It is his 5th consecutive finish in-the-money for Otsego Farms.  In spite of his heroic performance for us, he'll get caught up in a numbers game and have to be moved at the end of the season.  

Refractor finished his 2014 season with a strong, but disappointing 2nd place finish in the Brisbane Cup.  He was beaten by 4yo Druido Supremo, for whom I have a tremendous amount of respect.  Surprisingly, Refractor, the younger horse, carried more weight.  

A record of 5-1-3-1 for the week.

Prediction? Pain.

Refractor is riding a dominating 3-race winning streak and heads into his last race of the season this weekend in the 16F Brisbane Cup.  In the past 3 months, he's won the AJC Chairman's Handicap, the Prix du Cadran, and the Breeders Cup Endurance; and has done so by an average of 7 lengths!

He'll face off against stout competition this weekend.  Some of the other entries include 3yo phenom Pluto, super-stayer Druido Supremo, the always competitive Roanoke, and the veteran mare Ride The Sun.

When asked for a prediction, Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber was not shy.  "Refractor is at the very top of his game right now.  I think he's unbeatable at 16F at the moment, so he should bring the pain to the rest of the field."

Encouraging start from current 2yo crop bodes well for 2015

Actor Kiefer Sutherland signals "thumbs up" to Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber (offstage) after Webber discussed his stables prospects on The Late Show with David Letterman.

Although there are no apparent superstars in out current crop of 2yo's, they have all performed admirably and have given us some bit of hope for the future.

Usually at this time of year, I am looking critically at the 2yo's with the purpose of sending a few of them packing.  In the past, it's been a fairly easy process - just look for the ones that haven't made any money and have shown no improvement over the course of the year.  For them, it's Bon Voyage.

This year is different though.  They have all shown me something, or at least shown enough to forestall their departure at year end.

Art of Seduction    3-0-0-0

I purchased this well-bred colt after his first race.  AR says sprinter, HRF stats say otherwise.  He has not hit the board in two races at longer distances, but has looked decent.  He'll get a chance to see what he can do next year at 10+ furlongs before any final decision is made.

Azrael    3-0-1-0

Slow-starting, hard-finishing colt, just like his daddy.  He has been steadily improving, culminating in a 2nd place finish in his last race.  Prognosis is good.

Captain Britain    3-1-0-1

This Union Jack sired colt has been steady, if unspectacular.  His PSR's have been modest, but he has a propensity to hit the board.  He may end up as a serviceable racer in the mold of Shatterstar.  Hopefully though, he'll step up and accomplish a bit more.

Deep Magic    3-0-1-0

This fellow carried very high expectations.  By War Machine out of Isca's Revenge, his breeding commands respect.  He has also showed steady improvement, finally hitting the board in his third race.  We anticipate a solid 3yo campaign.

Kit Fisto    3-0-2-0

Another Nightwing progeny, Fisto seems to have exceptional lung capacity.  A couple of 2nd place finishes in three tries bodes well for next year. 

Moondragon    3-1-0-0

She won her debut, then has regressed a little bit in the last two races.  Has speed and has shown she can win, so she'll get another season to show more consistency.

Xtra Run    4-0-1-0

Being by Run Missy Run out of Xtra Heat, she should ooze speed.  Her HRF stats do confirm that she has abundant ability, but so far, we've been unsuccessful in determining if she's a sprinter, a miler, or a distance horse.  She'll get plenty of time to sort herself out.

You Know My Name    3-1-0-0

She won her second race in spectacular fashion, paving her way to the the BC Fillies Juvie, then bombed just as spectacularly.  Has a ton of talent potential though and should be a credit to her sire, Union Jack, next season.

Mocha Milkshake    0-0-0-0

Slow-maturing 2yo who will not race until next season.  We love the breeding of Memcay x Gourmet Girl and our trainers tell us this fella loves distance, so bring on 2015.

All nine of these horses will get a good long look next season as 3yo's.  Azrael and Kit Fisto both have some potential as Kentucky Derby prospects, but they will have to show marked improvement early next year.

Brisbane Cup for Refractor?

Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber was coy when asked about entering Refractor in the Brisbane Cup.  "My first and strongest inclination," he said, "was to skip the trip to Brisbane and call it a season after the Breeders Cup win.  But you never know..."

Playing in favor of a Refractor appearance is the fact that Otsego Farms has a successful history in this race, with 3 victories in 10 years.  Nightwing won the Brisbane Cup in 2004 and 2005, and Union Jack won it in 2010.  "Yeah, I'd like to get another one," Webber continued, "but Refractor has had a bit of a busy schedule in the past couple of months so I'm playing it by ear." 

Refractor won the Prix du Cadran in Paris on October 7th, and followed that up with the BC Endurance victory at Churchill Downs on November 1st.  This caused an unidentified stable to make sarcastic and derogatory comments in the media about Refractor's schedule.  Webber bristled a bit at that.  "We transport our horses via our own corporate jet, so we can cut things a little tighter.  Of course, the smaller, less successful stables have to use public transportation.  So I can understand their envy."

Refractor romped home in both recent wins, leaving quite a bit of stamina untapped.  Webber concluded, "Physically, the horse could easily stand another 16F before the end of the year.  He wasn't pushed at all in either of the wins."

Pairings / Names finalized for upcoming breeding season

The final breeding pairs along with the names of all prospective 2015 foals have been released by Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber, who stated, "The expectation of the new crop is always an exciting time.  In that regard, we like to publish the foal names early to get the juices flowing here at the stable."

War Machine x Ace Of Grace

Colt - Steel Lion

Filly - Dream Girl

Note: We've wanted to use both of these names in the past and they've never come up.  We'll get one this year.

War Machine x Arctic Fox

Colt - The Golden One

Filly - Andromache

Note: Both names inspired from the "Troy" series of books.  Andromache is pronounced An-DRAMA-kee.

Jenny's My Gal x Affirm Gal

Colt - Galahad

Filly - Galaxi

Note: Gal x Gal = Gal

Union Jack x Baby Greyhound

Colt - Herriot

Filly - Tricky Woo

Note: These names came from the delightful Books and TV Series "All Creatures Great and Small".

Yeager x Domino

Colt - Flash

Filly - Lightning Lass

Note: Can't believe the name Flash has never been used.  Lightning Lass is a superhero name that I've thought about using a couple times.

Nightwing x False Demon

Colt - Schoolboy Crush

Filly - Blue Fairy

Note: Colt name is from a song I love.  Filly name came from the quest of the robot boy in the movie A.I., who was searching for the Blue Fairy to change him into a real boy; just like in Pinocchio.

Union Jack x In Spirit

Colt - Admiral Boom

Filly - PracticallyPerfect

Note: Mary Poppins.  Need I say more?

Big 'N Rich x Nova

Colt - Big Bang

Filly - She Bangs

Note: Big Bang just flows logically from sire and dam name.  She Bangs is a derivative of colt name, more or less.

Reichenbach Falls x Second Strike

Colt - Numerator

Filly - Numerator

Note: Got the name from an old 3M horseracing game, Win, Place, and Show.

Take A Gander x Shattered Record

Colt - Ugotthelook

Filly - Ugotthelook

Note: From the iconic Prince song.  I've never been a fan of names that are strung together like this, but it just felt right in this case.

So there you have it.  The colt and filly names for the 2015 breeding season.  All rights reserved on these names; now and in the future.