Strategy change for 2015

Now that 2014 is finished, I've been looking over the data to see how I've mismanaged my horses.

Sometimes a horse performs well at a specific distance and you fall into a rut.  You just keep rolling him out there figuring, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.  The problem is, there is a possibility that he may perform even better at a different distance, but we'll never know if we aren't willing to experiment a bit.

Consider Methy Bus.  Looking at his record, you've got to concede that he's a pretty fast horse.  Ten out of his 16 career races have exceeded 100 PSR.  Fast, right?

Wrong.  He's not particularly fast.  His success is rooted in his outstanding stamina.

His recent stats check in as BREAK SPEED 71, EARLY SPEED 86, TOP SPEED 88, STAMINA 73.

He's a rather slowish starter with average speed...period.  Nothing special there.  Where he excels though is that gaudy, diamond-tipped, razor-sharp, gold-plated 73 for stamina.  That my friends, is how this fellow pays the bills.  As long as the race isn't too short, Methy Bus will usually run down the horses that are starting to lather and blow.

Back to my original point though.  He's gonna run in longer races next year. 

Methy Bus was efficiently and successfully managed by Chris over at Smokey's Stable.  No doubt about that.  And I just followed suit for the past couple of races with middling results.  But now that I've had a chance to think about it, I'm convinced that he'll do even better with a little more distance.

In his longest races, he has tried twice at 10F.  The first was the Cox Plate and he was the favorite at 9/4.  He finished 3rd in a lackluster performance.  His next race was the Kentucky Derby, also at 10F but this time on dirt, which is his less preferred surface.  Again, he was well received by the oddsmakers with a 9/1 line and there were only 4 horses that had better odds.  He obviously disliked the going, finishing 18th.

So, those two disappointing races don't exactly support my hypothesis, do they?  Even so, two things are beyond contestation in my opinion: 

1. A top speed of 88 is really too low to go against Milers.
2. A stamina rating of 73 should equate to success at 12+ furlongs.

Therefore, Methy Bus will try his luck at much longer races next season.

 A sample of recent festivities in celebration of another successful season at Photo-Finish.  Pictured here in the 1st Annual 1F Sprint Handicap In Drag, are (from left) Steven from Golden Acres, Ryan from Spartan Stables, Jim from Otsego Farms, Jim from Hutton's Horse Haven, Josh from JD Kayll Racing, and Chris from Cold Steel.