A field of 15 colts will contend for the 2020 Kentucky Derby. With the broadest of definitions, these horses can be broken down as follows:
Speed Horses:
Mass Money
Spanish Gigolo
Scalpel
Stamina Horses:
Ben Nevis
Highway to Hell
Prince Phillip
Tag You're It
Highland Games
Mr Gardiner
Fear This
Horses that may have weight issues:
Mass Money
Prince Phillip
Ruger
Sweet Consort
Thousand Slew
Mr Gardiner
Horses that may have rest issues:
Ben Nevis
Elementary
Mass Money
Spanish Gigolo
Sweet Consort
Speed horses are in short supply this year, with only three that have top speed values above 90. Of he three, Mass Money is most suitable at 10F, but Spanish Gigolo, and Scalpel can probably make the distance, with Scalpel being the more likely to falter in the last furlong.
Stamina horses abound in 2020. No less than seven have stamina ratings of 72 or higher, with Prince Phillip topping the list with a lofty 74. The Prince may be better suited for the 12F Belmont in my opinion though, as I don't think a 74 has ever won the Kentucky Derby.
Six horses may have difficulty with the expected 126lb weight. Ruger and Sweet Consort will be the most adversely affected.
There are five horses who ran traditional, but late Derby prep races. They will be hampered by short rest before the big race, especially if they continue on to the Preakness two weeks afterwards.
So... who will win? Let's start with who won't.
Mass Money and Sweet Consort are the only two horses who show up on the Weight Concern list AND the Rest Concern list. Therefore, I think it is safe to assume that neither will contend in this race.
Ruger has solid but unspectacular numbers, with the exception of a sky-high kick rating. He also has failed to find the winners circle in six career starts. He did well, finishing 2nd in the Florida Derby carrying a light 115lbs. With 126lbs on his back in the Derby however, he'll be sluggish and a non-factor.
Speaking of solid but unspectacular... Elementary also fits that bill. He's strong and can carry some weight, but his other attributes are just not good enough to win this race.
That leaves eleven horses and I think that any of them could win under the right circumstances.
Scalpel is a speedy horse that aquitted himself well in the UAE Derby against mediocre competition. He will find the higher calibre of talent in his race to be more of a challenge. He should lead the way with his superior early and top speed, but when the chips are on the line in the last furlong or two, he will probably give way.
Spanish Gigolo is very similar, talent-wise, to Scalpel, but with a bit more staying power. He won the Toyota Blue Grass, but did so against a buch of nobodies. His Achilles Heel will be lack of rest. He's sketchy at 10F to begin with, and with a scant 18 days of rest... hasta la vista baby.
Thousand Slew and Regal Sweep are also a similarly equipped pair. These two have a lethal combination of speed and stamina which translates almost perfectly at this distance. Of the two, I like Regal Sweep a little better because he has a better kick rating, can carry more weight, and has more rest.
Continuing the pairing-up scheme, Ben Nevis and Highway to Hell line up very nicely. Frankly, I think these two are the least likely to win this race out of the eleven that I said had a chance. They are not among the fastest or the strongest, which probably relegates them to the middle of he pack. Highway to Hell is very slow out of the gate, and just won't have the tools to get back into the race. Ben Nevis does not have the slow gate speed to worry about, but does have the added burden of insufficient rest.
Fear This is a bit of a wildcard with just a single start in his career... but it was a stunning debut. He beat speed horse Mass Money at the Gallery.com and did it easily. This horse is a massive threat to win this race.
Highland Games had a poor showing his last time out in the Dubai World Cup, but that can be explained by the decision to send him with only 18 days off. Now well-rested, he will be dangerous.
Mr Gardiner was super in the UAE Derby, posting a 1:58.70 and finishing in 2nd behind Derby no-show, Power Genius. That time shows what he is capable of, and he was carrying 126lbs when he did it. A legit chance to win.
One of the strongest horses in the race, as measured by kick, stamina, and weight-carrying ability, Tag You're It is a slow starter who finishes fast. If he can stay close to the action, he will definitely be a factor.
Prince Phillip is an 87/74 beast who has the ability to win races like this based strictly on his overwhelming stamina. He has a nice kick number as well, and those things combined to let him score a 3:16.85 at 16F earlier this year. I have very slight concerns with regard to his ability to carry 126lbs and the fact that he will be working on a little over 3 weeks of rest.
PREDICTION:
I really had a hard time separating the last five horses because they are all actually very close in raw ability.
I will drop Fear This just because his track record is so brief. That being said, his debut was marvelous and if does hit the board, it wouldn't surprise me at all.
Prince Phillip will also get eliminated because of the minor concerns I have plus the fact that an 87/74 has never won this race.
That leaves Highland Games, Mr Gardiner, and Tag You're It.
WIN: Tag You're It
PLACE: Highland Games
SHOW: Mr Gardiner
5 comments:
I am curious how you attributed weight issues to Thousand Slew, who has succeeded carrying 122 lbs at longer distances (9-9.5f vs 8.5), higher graded races (G1 & 2 vs G3 only) and at higher PSR than Regal Sweep who has yet to run anywhere but at the Fairgrounds.
Their kick ratings are within 30 points, a negligible difference.
This colt might go into the needing rest category, but I don't see any weight issues.
He may have done well at 122lbs, but they'll both carry 126lbs in this race and Regal Sweep is rated above that. Thousand Slew's tipping point is at 123lbs.
By my reckoning, there is a 74pt difference in the kick rating, again with Regal Sweep being higher. That is not negligible. That is 10% better.
Both of these items, plus the fact that Regal Sweep has more rest, explains my thinking.
All of this takes nothing away from Thousand Slew, who is obviously a fine horse.
Nice write up Jim
I will tip Fear This (pretty good run first start in a fast time , 10f will suit him more than the 9f ) to beat Tag Your It and Scalpel
On a side note : I didn't enter Powerful Genius in the KYD even though he's qualified because I really don't see the KYD as a race I really want to win , never had an entry in it and probably never will .. There are other races I see as better races to win around the same time as the KYD
Foxie
Actually Thousand Slews last race his Kick rating was 60 Points lower then it has been in every other start, his kick is normally around 760 it had dipped to 700 last start, which he won and the weight line i dont really pay much attention to i have seen horses whose limit is supposedly 105 won carrying 128+.
Everyone is entitled to there opinon however though Thousand Has a much better record then Regal sweep meeting Far superior horses, but if people would rather just simply look at numbers ahead of acutally race records, again that is there perogitive.
Well, I've never seen a horse with a weight line of 105, but I get your point. Anything can happen in a horse race, and it usually does. There are a lot of moving parts out there, so it's certainly not easy to try to guess what's gonna happen.
Please don't get touchy about me preferring a horse in a specific race though. I try to be as objective as possible with the info that I have at hand at the time. I didn't feel particularly good about picking my own horse to win, but that's the way I saw it at the time.
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