While trying to determine the optimum stallion for BG, I decided that a check of her racing statistics might provide some insight. I've seen her AR, which states that her best distance was 12F, but that was back in the day when AR's were considered much less reliable (and that is saying something because many people think they still may be worthless, despite some tweaks by Laurie).
I went to the middle of her 3yo season and picked a 9F race in which she finished 2nd. Checking the race stats, I saw that her Top Speed was 90, which would be very good for a 12F runner. I was expecting to see a Stamina number in the 70-71 range, but unfortunately it was just 68, which equates to more of a miler-type, in my opinion.
Hmmm. Now where did that "best distance 12F" come from? The answer was found when I looked at the Kick rating. This is a rating that evidently measures courage or strength down the stretch. Baby Greyhound's rating was over 1000, which is excellent. To put that into perspective, that rating typically ranges in the 300-800 range for most horses, with the higher number being better. At one time, I believe the Kick rating was used in determining the preferred distance for a horse.
Predator was also a horse whose AR said 12F was his best distance. That was evidently also determined in part by an abnormally high Kick rating. The truth was...Predator was always better at 8F or less.
So, it seems to me that my new girl is not quite the horse I thought she was. Rather than a producer of stayers, it looks like she might crank out courageous milers with a finishing kick, and that's OK with me. I was gonna match her with Union Jack, but after digesting all of this, I may be on the lookout for a miler-type stallion instead.
2 comments:
Kick has nothing to do with courage, there's a separate Courage score for that. Kick is used only in calculating the horse's optimum distance, and is modified somewhat by the horse's running style. But whether they can make that distance or not still depends on how much stamina they have.
Hmmm....
Obviously you are much more familiar with how the software works, but if Kick is used simply in calculating the horse's optimum distance, it does a very poor job. How do you explain a Kick rating for Promised Land in the 300's and a Kick for Predator in the 900's?
I hear what you're saying Laurie, but I personally don't buy it. Intuitively, Kick sounds to me like how a horse finishes a race. High Kick and high Courage gives you a truly menacing finisher, High Kick and low Courage gives you a fast finisher who won't fight at the end. That's the way I see it and it's based on nothing but my opinion from what I've gleaned from watching races and looking at stats....but I'm sticking to it. :)
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