How Much Is That AR Worth???

There has been a lot of discussion about how much value to place on an AR in determining how valuable or how well a horse will race.  This brief article will show you how I use the AR along with other numbers in determining what to do with a horse.

This is not meant as an advertisement in any way for a filly I have on the sales page.  Read the entire article please.

Zeldas Folly (2019), 16 hand bay filly

By Gravedigger out of Annibynnol Meth by A. P. Indy

This horse has average speed.

Zelda’s Folly has average speed.  That means her top speed will be between 88 and 90.  Tolerable on the top end but not much to speak about on the lower end.  Her parents speed was 89 and 90.  So the average speed is in line with what would be expected. 

We have no real way on knowing what her stamina is based on her AR.  Her parent’s stamina was 72 and 69.  So somewhere in there would be expected unless there was a random number.

The best possible numbers with average speed would be 90-72.  This number would be changed because it is over the 161 threshold.  It would be changed to 90-71 if it were a colt.  This example is a filly so her max stamina would be 70.  Her best possible numbers would be 90-70.  Not great but with proper placing could be workable. 

Here is a list of her possible top speed and stamina numbers.  90-70 (18% chance), 90-69 (9% chance), 89-70 (36% chance) and 89-69 (18% chance).  Her stamina number could be lower if it was a random lower number.  The last 3 combinations would be very difficult to work with for competing in the higher levels.  I believe the 90-70 combination has only about a 18% chance of happening.  This is why I placed her on the sales page. 

Wausau (2020), 15.3 hand bay filly

By Footloose out of Elusive State by A Bus

This horse has good speed. Could set records.

Wausau is a much better combination.  Her parents top speed was matched at 91 and their stamina’s were matched at 70.  With her AR stating she has good speed I know her speed will be 91 or better.  

We still do not know about the stamina number but with her parents matched at 70 that is a good bet.  If her speed is better than 92 then her stamina would be adjusted downward.  I believe she has an 81% chance of being a 91-70 when she matures on the track. 

Hope this helps in showing how an AR can be used to determining value of a PFSim horse.