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Thursday, May 16, 2013

You may have heard all this before...

BS, ES, TS, ST, KI

Break Speed, Early Speed, Top Speed, Stamina, Kick.

Many of you are very familiar with these ratings.  Some of you know of their existence, but take them with a grain of salt.  Others are totally unaware of them. 

Personally, I think that understanding these numbers is paramount to understanding your horses.

There are a couple dozen other factors that interact and affect your horses performance.  So these five core ratings are not the only things that determine whether you've got a Turf Monster or a Thunder Arctic on your hands.  It is very difficult though, if not impossible, to locate, decipher and interpret all of the other ratings.  Therefore, reliance on these numbers is the easiest way to try to get a handle on your horse.

Break Speed
Sometimes I refer to it as Gate Speed.  Typically ranges from about 65 to 85 with the higher number being faster.  Sprinters would benefit from a BS that is as high as possible.  A horse with an 80+ BS will vault out of the gate and attempt to grab an early lead.  If you are producing sprinters, I would try to breed for a fast break speed and a front running style.  A sprinter who is a rocket-type starter and has a come-from-behind racing style will probably have limited success.  Those two attributes just don't play well together, in most cases.

Early Speed
Usually as low as 83 and tops out at 94.  The importance of this number depends on the style of runner you have and the distance of the race.  For example, if you have a horse who is a front runner, but has horrible break speed and poor early speed, you may have a problem.  He'll be trying to get to the lead, but will be handicapped by a bad start and slow initial speed.  More than likely, he'll labor early at effort level 4 or 5, trying to follow his preferred running style, but will run out of gas and fade badly.  Early speed is less essential on stayers.

Top Speed
TS is the glamour stat.  This has the narrowest band, usually running between 86 and 94.  Whether you have a sprinter, a miler, a classic, or an endurance runner, the higher the number, the better.  Top-notch sprinters will be at 94 and endurance types usually check in at about 87 or 88.

Stamina
I've seen 'em as low as 64 and as high as 74.  This number is the best indicator of what distance you should be running a particular horse at, regardless what the AR says.  There is an article in the Otsego Insider dated March 27th that talks specifically about stamina.

Kick
A misunderstood stat.  This number ranges from 400 to 1200.  Most of the top stayers have a Kick rating above 1000.  But there are sprinters that have gaudy kick numbers as well.  French Twist has a TS of 93 and a stamina of 67, which makes him a sprinter in my mind.  He does have a current kick rating of 1068, which is as high as Refractor!  In my mind, the stamina rating takes precedence, so I believe he'll remain a sprinter, but I expect him to display more steam in the final furlong than the typical sprinter.

Run Missy Run was one of the most dominant sprinters in Photo Finish history.  In his prime, he stacked up WR's and TR's like Lincoln Logs.  His stats at his prime were 77-94-94-66-789.  He was a  better than average starter with blazing early and top speed.  His 66 stamina screamed sprinter, and that's where he did most of his damage, but he had an above-average kick of 789 and that enabled him to stretch successfully up to 8 furlongs.

I randomly chose a horse to analyze.  Hot As A Pepper had a mostly lackluster career as a sprinter, never topping PSR 100.  His numbers at his prime were 77-89-90-71-501, and a couple things stand right out.  1) His speed was too low to compete as a successful sprinter.  2) His stamina of 71 suggested he was more of a classic type, even though he had a below average kick of 501.  He probably wouldn't have panned out in the classic arena either, but one thing was for sure, this bird was no sprinter.

Just some stuff to think about.

5 comments:

Bruce said...

I'm going to show my ignorance here, but where do you find the Kick stat--I look at my horses stat (Across The Pacific in race 14700, and his 4 stats are 76, 93, 94, 67) but I am having trouble working out his Kick stat--there is a figure of 460, and I'm wondering if that is the Kick stat?

Jim Webber said...

Yup, 460 would be it. It's a below average rating, but he compensates with very nice speed figures. Personally, I wouldn't race him above 7F.

Looking at the stats for all the horses in that race, it was pretty obvious that ATP was gonna win. He had the best speed and his stamina was as good or better than the other couple horses who were close speed-wise.

Jim Webber said...

Footloose shouldn't have been in there at all; not a sprinter. That is a 8-10F horse all day long.

PF Admin said...

The kick score is calculated based on two other stats, one of which is not recorded in the race files. Those are: Best Distance, and Run Style. So, kick is somehow related to the horse's preferred distance and where he likes to run. How that's used in the actual race, I don't know, but kick can be used as a general indicator of distance.

Anonymous said...

how do I find these numbers
ben
Victorian racing stables