Picking winners is never a sure thing. Or is it?
To try to find out, I decided to take a look at a random race this weekend to see if I can predict the outcome, based solely on the horses current stats.
It had to be a race with limited entries because I didn't want to spend a ton of time analyzing 20 horses. Also, I didn't want to pick a race with a clear cut favorite. Scanning down the list, the San Vicente Stakes seemed to meet the criteria. Six 3yo colts competing at 7F, and I was unfamiliar with all of them.
After my first glance I was sure of one thing; Sisqo Falls and WalkingOnSunshine will not win. Both are too slow to compete in this race.
Crash Landing and Last Fine Drop are very similar horses and they will battle for 3rd/4th place. Flip a coin.
My Boy Brandon and Unrepentant are the cream of this crop and one of these two will win with the other finishing second. Based on the fact that My Boy Brandon will have a blazing start and should be able to hang on to the lead and Unrepentant will be working on a scant 21 days rest, I'll predict the final outcome as:
- My Boy Brandon
- Unrepentant
- Crash Landing
- Last Fine Drop
- Sisqo Falls
- WalkingOnSunshine
Remember, nothing is foolproof. If the top two swapped places it wouldn't surprise me. It's possible that either CL or LFD could creep into second place, However, I will guarantee that neither SF or WOS will win.
We'll see tomorrow morning!
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