Last second entry flip...

I really want to see what Refractor can do at 16F.  His speed is not his best asset, but I think he has the potential to outlast most other horses, hence his intial entry in the 16F Perth Cup.  He sat as an entrant in that field all week, only to be yanked at the last moment and put in the 12F Japanese Derby.

The bottom line is... I couldn't pass up what I felt was an inferior field in a much more lucrative race.

In the Perth Cup, Refractor would be facing Druido Supremo, Duo Power, High Heart, and the still dangerous Islegetrevenge.  All that risk for a smallish $350,000 purse?  Even though I felt Refractor could hold his own against those fella's, the risk/reward ratio just didn't seem adequate to me.

On the other hand, the $3,200,000 purse in the Japanese Derby is heavenly against a relatively unproven field.  Obviously Pluto is a concern, as are a couple of the other horses, but even a 3rd place finish in that race would pay $320,000, which is more than the winner will collect in the Perth Cup.

So, I was forced to make the change.  As a strategic move, I naturally waited until the last moment.

Ironically, I am always a little annoyed by the last second entry in a race where I have a horse.  Sorry for doing that folks.  I have championed random cut-offs on entries in the past, so that people like me cannot wait until 7:59 to drop a horse on an unsuspecting field.  But that is a different subject altogether.

I think Refractor has a tremendous chance to hit the board in the Japanese Derby and at least a punchers chance at the win.  I'd be a lot more confident with a couple more furlongs, but ya can't have everything.  Right?